My Performance Since 2018 + Opportunity (LibertySirius) + Strategy (Apple Buybacks vs Value)
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- Опубликовано: 6 июн 2024
- Here is my performance since 2018 for my model portfolio, the current opportunity and the strategy I find best for investing today.
sven-carlin-research-platform...
My passion is to look for low risk high reward investment opportunities. I apply my accounting skills and investing experience in order to find interesting investment ideas that offer the possibility to lead me towards my financial goals.
If you are a sophisticated investor looking for in depth, independent stock analyses and investing ideas, here is my STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM (business and sector risk and reward analysis, my portfolios):
STOCK MARKET RESEARCH PLATFORM:
sven-carlin-research-platform...
Are you an investor that is just starting? Sign up for the FREE Stock Market Investing Course - a comprehensive guide to investing discussing all that matters: sven-carlin-research-platform...
I am also a book author:
Modern Value Investing book:
amzn.to/2lvfH3t
The below links are from third parties or channel sponsors where I get a fee from:
I often get asked about brokers, here is a low fee broker, an international one that allows you to buy on global markets, and also offers complex solutions like options for when your investing skills grow. For now, it is one of the best solutions I have found for global investors, also based on your comments and inputs:
www.interactivebrokers.ie/mkt...
0:00 My Performance
7:30 Liberty Sirius Opportunity
10:30 Strategy
Respect to you for being honest about your performance in this video, Sven. Fundamental absolute value investing usually lags the market in these exuberant markets, but you still made a good return with lower risk than the market. That will most likely pay off in the future.
that is the plan!!!
I am on board of your platform for very long time, and I just love your analytical skills and your honesty. I hope you will keep on going.👏👏👍
same here. Don't be to hard to you. You're an awesome person with serious skills Sven. ❤️👍
thanks!
People need to take responsibility for their own money. I am a very happy to be a subscriber to your platform because I don’t just copy what you do. You found Kyndryl for me at its bottom and did a pretty good analysis and it has made me a good return. You, however, did not like the stock (and I respect that!). The quality of your research, and the thousands you saved me by convincing me to sell traps like AT&T and Bayer have been amazing.
Thanks!
The question is if it’s really worth to put so much energy time into single stocks and not just simply put the money into an index funds and use the energy and time to find additional cashflow investments
Odds are his returns will still be relatively stable when the market flips. Something that cannot be measured by performance is risk exposure, which would probably be lower than market average. If you break the 13.8% per year down, you can see variance is high. Goal is to keep money safe while growing it at decent pace. If you look at the market you would have been investing in to get 13.8%, safe would not be the word you would use.
Agreed. Just put your money in some index funds and you will be fine in long term. Don’t try to beat the market because we, as retail investors, will most probably lose money!
I would agree but the market valuation is so sketchy. Maybe market is right but who knows
@@Jerryfromtheblocm it is going to be almost impossible for him to recover from 6 years of 4.5% underperformance. Run the numbers
@@Jerryfromtheblocm investing in the total stock market is the least risky strategy because it is the only one that doesn’t carry any idiosyncratic risk
Alll things considered, it’s very difficult to beat the market when the market includes companies that seems to have insane valuations with very little basis. A 9.8% return is phenomenal when not including companies that have ridiculous returns. Fortunately, the tech industry isn’t a must in one’s attempt to get good returns, thus I am still pleased with your performance, Sven. Thank you as always.
thanks!
Do these figures include the period when you sold everything a couple of years back ?
I am afraid it does not 😢
I believe that Sven sold his personal portfolio not this one. He said the reason for it in this video, to much of trying to buy something for other people.
Sometimes it is just best to stay in one position and not worry what market is doing. However not many people can do that.
Baba is example it will go nowhere for some time but it will go back to its value. Question is do people have stomach to watch it doing nothing for some time.
the model portfolio has been there in continuation!
On the topic of Apple Buy back, apple itself is buying back shares at 3% earnings while T bills are earning 5%, which is crazy.
yep, but Apple EGO thinks apple will grow into eternity
Sven, exeptional insight about W. Buffet and Apple, thank you! ❤ Was laughing about giving self mark 4/10, nobody will buy a research platform! 😂
hahahahaha :-)_))
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Wow. I'm a bit perplexed seeing her been mentioned here also Didn’t know she has been good to so many people too this is wonderful, i'm in my fifth trade with her and it has been super.
After I raised up to 125k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states also paid for my son's surgery
Glory to God shalom.
Hi Sven. Thank you for interesting videos.
Regarding your statement of value investing is being most of all about not losing money - how do you reconcile it with you mentioning Chinese market as a good candidate to consider?
Before 2022 disaster with Russian stock market (between 50% permanent capital loss and complete wipeout) you favorably mentioned Russian stocks, for example Gazprom.
How is the current Chinese stock market different from Russian stock market before 2022?
Do you consider it a mistake investing in Russian stocks before 2022 and if so how your risk management changed in order to avoid such issues in the future?
I wish I had that answer. Russia is one, China is a different player in the world, so I hope we don't have to think about such issues. Just think of Apple / that is China, so...
That's an excellent question I hope Sven will adress in a future video (despite his comment that indicates that he might not). He has hit the nail on the head many times in this regard (CEPU comes to mind), but Russia might have caught him by surprise? (like it did me) Personally I'm avoiding China now - not sure how likely a war between China and Taiwan is, and also not sure how severe a reaction vs China would be, but don't like the risk (and, if you add in the additional risk of chinese investments, it's just not worth it for me)
@@saethman Yes, I agree with you that "Russia is one, China is a different player in the world" does not inspire much confidence. I was born in the former USSR but emigrated very long time ago to the West. I am following the situation in Russia after the start of war. My gut feeling is that we are trending towards new cold war (the best case, hot war is the worst case). There will most likely be a new Iron Curtain and any investment in the opposite camp economy will be impossible (especially by regular people). I myself have minimal investments in China's stock market (2%-3% of the portfolio). Of course, I made them at much higher past stock prices :( so psychologically I find it hard to bring myself to accept the loss and sell even though I would not make the same investment now so for symmetry sake I should not continue to hold it. I guess I prefer to fool myself and think about it as "an option on everything will work out" scenario (even though I think the probability of that is less than 1% and even if it happens the upside is not going to be anything mind blowing).
I have mixed feelings about comparing my own performance against the S&P500. First thought is that I should only compare my performance to something else that I can invest in, so as an Australian investor, ASX:IVV would be a goodbench mark as this is a S&P500 index fund that I can buy. This is my opportunity cost as a value investor. The second thought is on whether my stocks in my portfolio are members of the index that I wish to compare against. I have until recently only invested in Australian stocks, so the comparison to the S&P500 is perhaps unfair at some level, because the S&P 500 "attracts" larger and more successful companies. So I expect to do better if I apply a value investing strategy to the S&P 500 than I would applying the same strategy to Australia. These ideas won't hold in all situations, as the S&P500 may be overvalued at times exceeding the additional quality than my local index, the ASX200. Food for thought. Choose your benchmark wisely.
at the end, one should not even compare, just be happy with the returns produced by the owned businesses
Sven i really respect your candor and integrity. It takes alot to come out and reveal your performance, when you know you'll face criticism.
I however also feel that you need to do a deep evaluation of your investment methodology, break out of dogmas that you may hold, and work toward improving returns. 6 years of underperformed by over 4% is not ideal under any circumstances. You need to revaluate your thesis, and do it faster. Every year is a massive opportunity cost for you and for those that follow your advice.
I still find your core concepts very enlightening. Wishing you well
Hey I'm invested in Sirius, because based on their ROIC and their actual price it seems pretty undervlued (even though growth might be in 0-2% range for the current years)
Berkshire investing a lot in Libertius tracker stock is actually good news regarding the constant falling price of sirius. What i dont understand tho is why is berkshire adding so much liberty tracking stock and at the same time selling around 8.8% of their sirius xm holdings. If they speculate on the 8.4 share conversion and the long term value it doesnt seem in line trimming sirius xm at the same time (maybe tax benefits?). I know that a lot of investors played the risk arbitrage game, but i dont think berkshire invested because of it that rather because of the good FCF to price ratio.
good question, but that is it with BRK, you can never know the full story behind it!
Can you explain why the buyback money are going to the seller ? at 12:08 you talk about it.
They are buying back shares so the money that is being used will go to the sellers of those shares.
@@Laszloh_Kovacs yeah, but this will happend only after they do all the buybacks, while Buffet is selling before the buybacks.
@@stoyan9544 so far. It just depends on whether he keeps trimming or not. Either way, he probably wouldn’t buy apple at these prices so I’m guessing he doesn’t like that apple is buying apple at these prices
Apple is buying the stocks Buffet is selling. And being the P/E that high, the stock is likely not reaching again that high
BRK bought the stock at $30, now unloading at $170 and Apple cash is going to buffett;s account
What special situation do you think is going to return a 50% dividend at the end of the year?
only for research platform
Just imagine, you run a 'research platform', you pump videos weekly, you spend time analyising the markets and companies..... All to underperorm the market lol.
Basically an exercise in proving Warren Buffett, Jack Bogle and the Bogleheads correct. Joseph Carlson is also lagging the market with his portfolio of two accounts!
Ikr, and that too for 6 years. All while talking down on growth investors that are trading the momentum. Idk, but im kinda dissapointed 😢. I wish Sven better returns over the next few years.
Sven you’re obviously a very intelligent guy, you should do an analysis of the opportunity cost of spending 40+ hours a week researching stocks in order to underperform the market by 4.5%. I don’t know how it is in Europe, but in the US, specialized physicians like surgeons, cardiologists etc earn upwards of $400-500 per hour. I imagine if you did something like that and invested in index funds, rather than making investing research your day job, you would probably come out 10-20 million dollars ahead by the end of your life
This is just the 6 years of my last 22 years of investing, If I get a 6 year period like the first 3 I had, you would understand why. Hopefully in the next years.
@@Value-Investing that is even worse, since the underperformance is occurring at a time when you have already a substantial amount of capital deployed in the market (16 years worth) 😱 I hope you will be able to recover from this. Good luck
@@Value-Investing That is the classic underperformance arc. Jack Bogle (RIP) has this documented.
@@steventaylor6027 Agreed. Jack Bogle (RIP) would add Sven's arc to his chart of shooting star stockpickers: they flame out and over time the tortoise of indexing beats the hare.
PayPal now has a very attractive P/E, strong free cashflow, and a new customer focused CEO. Time to take another look?
thanks for suggesting
Beating the market or not does not mean much. I consider a pretty good result approaching the geometric and arithmetic average market return over the years with a consistent significantly reduced volatility
thanks for sharing
Can you do a video discussing the 50% strategy? Guessing it is in deep value?
Sign up for his service. You have a 21 day money back guarantee.
it is more about waiting for the right time to strike, just to keep an open mind on what can happen!
The next 6 years will be more interesting (and telling) than the last 6 - especially if we now are in a "permanent" state of money not being free anymore and valuations actually matter again.
Hi Sven, thanks for the video! I still don't understand why the stock is down 30% in the last months if it's considered an opportunity, counting also Buffet buying it
I first bought after it was down, and it previously went up. But that is the market, few invest for the long term cash flows.
What of the many lyberty company is he talking about? It is not clear from what he says and write
@@frederikcensen6350 Buffett is buying LSMXK and LSMXA
Sven, what would it take for you to admit the boglehead strategy advocated by both Jack Bogle and Warren Buffett is superior to what you advocate as a strategy/philosophy?
I am 100% convinced it isn’t!
@@Value-Investing Fair enough. I am hoping you are one of the rare few who manage to generate alpha in copious amounts over a lifetime. I'm 99% convinced that 97% of the people reading these comments are better off choosing the Boglehead strategy as opposed to the Phil Fischer/Charlie Munger Strategy and I will be hoping you prove to be in that 3%.
This guy is emence!
thanks!
one of mistake I felt of his stratergies is, he look for value stocks, buy low, but when a stock is so low, it does not mean its good stock to buy.
mistakes are normal when it comes to investing, here you can learn from mine: ruclips.net/video/UKaOMs1kEo0/видео.html
Share some psychology traits that you've learned to improve one others investments. Would love to hear your idea's and view on some topics. A lot of them a spreaded out over your video's, but might be nice to have one compact video dedicated to it.
Great suggestion!
You can invest in mediocre companies and with proper usage of options strategies you can do solid job.
Start you channel and show us all. It's probably still a higher risk.
thanks for sharing
Hi Sven, this comment comes from a lot of curiosity and only little criticism. The market's 50 year average is 10+%, Buffet got 14.6% on his billions while keeping 1/5 in cash, and yours is 9.8%. You admit that your performance is 4/10, but also claim "it is OK". The cost analysis says otherwise: you spent years researching stocks and other people spent some time reading/watching your research. It seems like a lot of effort for little/no added return. Am I missing something here? Is one to simply believe and hope that your future returns will be better because "you have learned"? I still enjoy your analysis videos a lot, be well.
this is just one period, did much better in the past, and we will see in the future. so yes, it is very worth it.
@@Value-Investing It is important to remember that you doing much better in the past with smaller amounts fits the findings of Jack Bogle on how star stockpickers get beat by the index over time.
the true worth of the portfolio will beome apparent when the market in general loses momentum I think.
Amazing how well the S&P500 works (SPY/VOO etc.)
Until it doesn't....then what do you do and why?
keep in mind the FED and rates
@@PonderDuke I would ask you to name a single Boglehead that has failed by following that investment strategy? You stay the course and keep Dollar Cost Averaging. If the sun explodes nothing works. Dollar Cost averaging into the S&P500 has worked just fine and continues to work just fine with or without the bear markets. It is consistently saving a percentage of income over decades of a career that works and spending time improving that income (education/promotions/project-work opportunities) rather then the fool's errand of trying to "beat" the market (which a rarified few will ever accomplish).
Dollar cost averaging into the index over a career ( the boglehead approach) works for millions over decades and is at least as likely as any other strategy to continue working for the vast majority of those who actually execute that plan.
There is good reason that Warren Buffett advises his friends and family to index today going forward.
@@Value-Investing The Boglehead strategy works keeping in mind the FED and rates. Furthermore, the Boglehead strategy of Dollar Cost Averaging a percentage of income over a career into the index is just as likely to work as any other strategy for the majority of Savers-Investors in accomplishing a comfortable retirement (something no other strategy can say - it is possible to "beat" the market - it just isn't likely for the majority of people reading these comments.)
Sven made a big mistake with the start of the war in Ukraine. He sold the Russian shares he had in the two large portfolios in time, but not in this one which was the smallest, so he recorded big losses. Today he underperforms even in his new personal portoflio started in 2023, but he is positioned so well that if everything starts as expected he will make a lot of money. I am a subscriber to his platform from 2020 and his a feelings of love-hate. He's an outsider and I'm sure in next 5 years he will destroy the market!!!
Maybe….
that is the plan:-)
Is Sven talking about SIRI, LSXMK, LSXMA or LBTYK in this video? Why not just buy LSXMK instead of SIRI if only for the cashflows and not arbitrage? Very unclear video.
I am just telling you what is there as opportunities, this wasn't a full analysis in the detail.
Could Apple not just buy Treasury Bills at 5% and just accumulate Cash? Nothing wrong with a Cash Pile.
It would be smarter, but their ego doesn't let them.
Considering that Seth and Warren have significantly underperformed the index over the last 15 years, you are in good company. Beating the index is extremely difficult.
Seriously dude? Warren buffet manages 100s of billions. There are so many people at svens level that are making 50% and above in annualized returns.
Buffet hinself made 48% annualized returns for 10 years in the 1970s, when his portfolio was smaller. And that too, would have been bigger than Svens present portfolio.
I also sold AAPL thanks to you, so Apple was giving me its money too! ^_^ I will buy again when it's way more reasonable valuation for its actual growth. Thanks!
Totally agree!
It would be interesting to know how Seth Klarman and the Bauman Group can have such a poor performance. The guy knows everything about investing and still catastrophe, are there hedges that we cannot see? His 10 year performance is -23% and his 3 year performance is -43% I hope there is a good explanation to this failure.
That is not correct for performance! He returned capital twice, so that might be the minus, but not performance!
@@Value-Investing thanks for clarifying was a bit worried there. I just googled “Baupost performance” , anyway not good advertisement
@@Value-Investing yes that must be the explanation
Fair play for showing your laundry in public..
🗽 If you expect for AAPL a long-term return of 7%, you could hold, but you need a growth rate of 12% or more!
With growth of only 6% you get about 3% return, less than with a T-Note.
.
yep!
I am a long time viewer of this channel and was a member of your research platform until you sold everything. There had been constantl changes in the structure... Lump sum an what not.
I do not recall a portfolio in which you invested constantly for 6 years.
Maybe you did, but this one portfolio of many you started does not show your overall performance.
the model portfolio has been in continuation for 6 years :-)
No con i minatori d oro un si farà profitti detto da te ma io ti ringrazio io mi sto riempendo le tasche di dollari ti ringrazio tanto basta operare all incontro di voi scenziati
bene per te!
Pay to underperform. Awesome 👍
keep in mind this is not for following, just for ideas and how it fits one, many did better as they weren't under the influences I was
13.5% per year not great but not too bad. Average. Getting out of the market is biggest mistake, they miss beet 10 days of the market.
thanks for sharing
The people who really beat the market are people like Carlson, who buy P/E 40-80 with projected growth rate of 20-40%. Market loves these growth companies. Value hasn't been outperforming the S&P. We're seeing expanding valuations and that usually benefits growth companies. Mag7 having such high growth despite their size speaks of another effect: these companies are soaking up disproportionate amount of other companies' revenue. So I am not bullish on the other S&P participants as a group, i.e. I don't believe that the rest of S&P will catch up to top of S&P.
P/E ratio is a meaningless metric for a company that’s growing at 40%
@@steventaylor6027 Depends. How many years of growth they actually get at that rate. Also what's your starting point. Even 40% growth is meaningless if you start your earnings at 1 dollar. Granted, picks like Chipotle and Amazon has shown up and actually delivered this growth. But the valuation grows just as much, so anyone buying today is buying the same "bet" as people buying these companies 5 years ago... but after 5 years of stellar growth already delivered. At one point someone's gonna be stuck holding the bag.
But that type of growth investing is a totally different ballgame. At the very least, value investing is decently easy to wrap your brain around. Very low risk decent reward investments accounting for worst case scenarios etc etc. The hit rate for that type of growth investing has to be horrible for even a decent investor.
not considering the risk side of things
Carlson has underperformed the Market and continues to underperform the market with his portfolio of two accounts.
🗽 Sven, what do you think about BTI?
It looks so cheap. The question is, can BTI hold the earnings long-term?
.
who knows, you know I don't know enough about tobacco
Just put your money in some index funds and you will be fine in long term. Don’t try to beat the market because we, as retail investors, will most probably lose money!
that is what worked as the FED printed and rates went from 15% to zero
@@Value-Investing Indexing worked BEFORE that as well or better then stock-picking for the majority of investors and you know that Sven. When did Jack Bogle launch what is now the Vanguard 500 index.
You don't need the excuse of the FED. There is plenty of data of stockpicking underperforming prior to ZIRP.
9,8% return - not great, not terrible :)
:-)
Ok
ok
Scammer selling research platform.
😢
If he were a scammer, he wouldn't tell you his low returns. He'd fake some high returns. He's honest with his audience.
My cagr over the last 5 years has been 35%.
Two caveats to that I only started throwing in big money basically in 2022 and 2023 when a bunch of amazing businesses were at a steep discount so I don't think I can sustain that, I just happened to time the massive outlay of capital at the right time, luckily I moved jobs and was able to earn and save a lot more.
Over that time I went from basically $0 to six figures, the best decision I ever made was to start investing and the second best decision I ever made was to learn about how to analyse companies. I still do index investing in my pension and all my employer contributions still go into indexes but for my own portfolio funded out of take home pay I'm picking the companies myself.
thanks for sharing
lol cool story bro
6 years of value investing and still not enough to beat the market 🥹
thanks for sharing