The Kondratieff Long-Term Interest Rate Cycle (Updated 1780-2024)
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- Опубликовано: 3 май 2024
- What if interest rates don't go down? What if interest rates go up? A century ago, Kondratieff figured out that usually interest rates work in long-term cycles between 40 and 60 years. Since, history has repeated itself. Thus, it is possible for interest rates to keep going up / just a possibility to keep an open mind.
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This article makes want to learn distressed debt investing. If interest rates rise above 6% for a few years, companies of all sizes, including startups will meet their end. Thanks for the great video Sven.
ah, that includes lawyers etc...
WoW thanks, Sven for bringing this to YT, and thanks to Kondratieff for those insightful findings!
Glad you enjoyed it!
RIP Kondratieff. My heart is always wrung by stories like his. The intellectual humility, the commitment to reality and to science. This is a real hero. May he rest in peace. No one remembers Stalin with any sorrow or pity.
:-)
Awesome information!
Thank-you! 🇨🇦
Glad it was helpful!
Excellent job and conclusion Sven, well done.
thanks!
Some really good information here. Thanks!
thanks!
I really like ur videos. Very informative, objective and you are not recommending garbage or highly overvalued stocks.
Keep on going 😊
thanks!
Very interesting (as always, but this one was different kinda), but I wanted to say this:
1) Interest rates are NOT part of the capitalist system, on the contrary, they're part of statism, they're interventionism.
2) Crises are NOT part of capitalism, on the contrary, they're always the result of political State interventionism.
3) In fact, capitalism has never been applied by itself purely on any country in history, sadly.
Maybe the majority will learn someday at last and we can finally be truly capitalist, thus free and prosper. Thank you!
Hey Dr! RUclips recommended me this video on my feed possibly because I binge watch finances and its really well presented! Kudos to the work that you're doing 😊
Btw I was wondering if I could help you edit your videos and also make highly engaging shorts out of them. But I'm not really sure if it is the best time?
thanks for commenting
Excellent video Sven thanks
Thank you
This resonates well with Jamie Dimon's warning of possibility of 8% on a 10 year note and its consequences on wider economy
anything is possible
It's a good thing to be prepared for different scenarios Sven, but i cannot see higher rates. My sense is that US strong economic growth is lead by debt. GDP is up because debt is UP. Unemployment is low because GDP has been strong. Inflation is sticky and because workers have bargaining power. But at one point the current interest rate will be too high to refinance debt taken during the pandemic low. Credit will contract -> Sales will go down -> Net income will go down -> Companies will cut jobs -> Unemployment will go up -> Wages increases will end. -> Inflation will no go back up if wages growth ends. -> Rates won't to go up because inflation won't rise without strong demand for goods.
we will see, nobody knows!
Great video, Sven! I was wondering if you plan to make a summary of the Berkshire Hathaway annual shareholders meeting anytime soon?
No time this year:-( just a brk earnings update
Hi Sven, I think you beat Warren Buffet into his speech today. You stole his thunder! I like it... I know I don't know!
:-))
What I think is this: if you are investing you have a base scenario. This means you have, at least in broad strokes, a concept of the likely future in course of events. If that is not the case, what happens is that you simply spend your money. If uncertainty is the rule, people simply spend now. I know this because I'm Brazilian. And that is what 95% of the population here does.
Thanks for sharing
Nikolai Kondratiev basically as
hypothesizes correlation implies causation. You could just add well flip his hypothesis and assume that all these events (wars, oil embargo, little ice age, etc.) are cause not the result of these interest rates cycles.
As said, not science here, just a look at history
@@Value-Investing I agree, and I'm not criticizing your take. I spent a lot of time looking at K-waves. I eventually decided that these economic cycles don't really exist and are likely the result of human reactions to what's happening in the real world.
Hi Sven, do you know Martin Armstrong who developed the ECM Economic confidence model? He studied also Kondratieff and now explains what economical will happen.
thanks for sharing!
I'm really curious about your opinion for the ECM model, maybe you will find a time to share it here on the channel.
I like your thinking approach
Hi Sven! Is it possible to read this material from Peter?
send me an email
What about more restrictive fiscal policy instead of raising interest rates. Canada recently chose that path with raising taxes on capital gains.
taxes can be raised cosmetically or really
‘I don’t know… I hope U know U don’t know either’ lol 😂: thanks again Sven!
:-))
Is it true that when rates will get cut = recession ? thanks Sven
Yes, but fed inverted it. High rates used to means booming econ.
we will have to see
Well yes, in life there are no guarantees. One thing is sure, being an economist was a much dangerous job at Kondratieff times
Haha
What about the debt, how can one even keep paying for interest rate?
for now, with more debt, which is the definition of a ponzi scheme
Wow, I read it totally different. Interest rates are coming down possible 2x in December. They beat on every measure. That being said it should go up and stop the gov
I can't predict rates, so good that you can - you should be a trillioniare!
which ever way you dice it 5% is longterm average, so it can only go up - or down from here! just a question of when !
:-)
On this topic, I can recommend reading the book The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham, chapter 1. Many of the insights in this chapter coincide with the passage in the video.
thanks for sharing, here is the book summary playlist ruclips.net/video/rZ_xAEt09C0/видео.html
The longer im investing the more i think Ray dalios all weather portfolio seems like a real good idea 😂😂
:-)))
Imagine if this turns out true. Lots of ppl who took cheap debt will be screwed for long term.
On the contrary, they got something that will no longer be available. They borrowed when it was cheap
@@austinluepkes5484 yeah, that is valid for fixed rate loans, but many borrowed consumer debt which is variable rate. Also not everywhere in the world rates are fixed. And finally don’t forget that taxes, insurance and so on are not fixed and can force ppl on fixed mortgage to sell and lose the low rate.
only if they are going to need to take more of it
As long as they keep their job they’d actually be better off.
:-)
I know, just look at the u.s deficit spending... it takes time but as friedman would say inflation is always a monetary issue. They are printing a bit ton
:-)
👍
:-)
It feels like the late 1980's after the inflation of the 70's where gold hit record highs, and a mortgage for a home hit 18% ,with the October 1987 crash the final act of the cycle i
if feels more like early 70s
Zamn
!
Data has been weak this week. Jolts, Jobs, GDP, all below expectation. ISM Services below 50. The jobs created were in Health Care, "social services" and retail, not exactly the signs of a booming economy. The data in some of these areas like manufacturing have been trending down for months despite previous job growth. Oil back in the mid $70s. Long story short I think we get a recession in the next 6 to 12 months and when the job cuts start accelerating that is going to solve the inflation problem fast, leading to those rate cuts.
So macro is so slow to develop that leaders have no incentive to behave correctly.
we don't know what is correct, only time will tell
with deflation and population decline only way to increase revenues is to cut rates
but inflation is global and population is increasing
The market seems to price in endless bull runs in my opinion... every news, good or bad, is viewed bullish
yep
Next video on Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels economy theory? 😂 On hight intrest rates enviroment still will be stocks that will perform good or even better, that has strong cash flows and balance sheets. I doubt if you will stop using youtube and google if rates will jump to 10% 😅 would like to see video on stocks that dosn't care of how hight intrest rate are
bwt Powell will not dare to rise intrest rates on election years
yes, we know that, but 99% of the population doesn't, so here is the risk and reward!
rising interest rates would play in favour of TRUMP, who calls for an economic disaster and a bad (Wall Street) year until the USA elections. I think Powell, as independent as he can be, knows that and probably will delay any rise of interest rates during the presidential campaign.
thanks for sharing!
No matter what, get the cash flow. Speculation, bigger fool theory, aka inflation, is not cash flow. Show me the money. Convert to gold for long term. Stay diversified. Wish I knew this 50 years ago when I was 22. Did okay. Lucked out with inflation and real estate. Still children today are doomed if they save in dollars, IOUs worth nothing, losing 6% a year for 50 years. Gold and silver hold buying power. IOUs lose buying power. The 1% are destroying buying power with debasement. Got gold?
thanks for sharing
Kondratiev also discovered the fact about commodities cycles. Commodities also have long cycles and now is the moment when they must rise according to the theory. Maybe triggered by the ww3
thanks for the comment