A Peak Past, The End Of The World YPO/Gold - Peter Zeihan
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- Опубликовано: 14 дек 2023
- YPO| WISHINGON Chapter , Keynote Speaker - Peter Zeihan
renowned author and Geopolitical Expert Peter Zeihan addresses the Wisconsin chapter of Gold in Brookfield .
@ZeihanonGeopolitics
Disclaimer
video for education purposes only for Super fans of zeihan
re-upload or Duplicate of this content Without permission
May get Punished Under Copyright Law Credit : Peter Zeihan
This guy just gets better all the time (I have heard this speech so many times I fail to keep count) but every time there is something, re-phrased, which I hadn't caught the first time. Plus he is from Iowa.😀
Love how he slightly tailors each version of "the same speech" to each audience he delivers it to. Be it a state or city location and how they will fit into the picture, or an industry group (miners, farmers, bankers, etc.) and how the coming changes will apply to them. Little extra nuggets appear in each. And hearing the same speech over time, new events in global news alter parts of the speech. Sometimes it sends some of his analyses into a different direction (fully or partially) and he often acknowledges that, or, often, it re-enforces his point to really drive it home.
I dislike Peter. I liked him at first. But after listening a few times he doesn’t seem open minded or he doesn’t try to remain unbiased.
He basically says the U.S. is good and we’ll win and Russia is losing in Ukraine and China is going to collapse. Haha it’s like he never says one bad thing about the U.S. it’s so funny. It’s like id like to listen to this guy and learn but he’s probably just repeating his past lecture and how the U.S. is good and Putin bad.
Good job Peter. You finally told and landed the +1 joke!!! Perfect.
As an automation engineer I do wonder about this textile facility he talks about.
His point about having plants with minimal staff with high production is valid. I once did some work at WWTP with a FT staff of two. The plants PLC did most of the work.
I was at one larger WWTP that had about 3-5 FT people serving an area with well over 50k residents. Don’t remember the exact numbers.
The plant I work at makes the majority of NA’s toothpaste for a well known brand (won’t say the brand) with about 500 people.
Plants in advanced countries are very productive bc they have to be. We can’t just hire another body to work here. There is serious training involved, even for the line workers.
Audio guy had one job.
Audio engineering isn't quite so simple.
This is stolen content, blame the uploader as they have stolen peters content.
Peter is excellent. I think he weighs human actions a bit lightly, but his data is on point. I like analysts who provide their data so you can go look it up and make your own conclusions. Shows confidence and honesty.
Great framing with few words gets the point across: " I think he weighs human actions a bit lightly, but his data is on point. æ
@@TheNaturalLawInstitute Great framing with the concept of framing. I'm stealing it.
@@pigwank8234nice way of putting it, Peter isn't perfect, he thought Germany would pick energy... But when you present from data and your opinion is wrong, the data was right your perception of action was wrong..
We appreciate your putting out the knowledge.
I appreciate that
zeihan is a rockstar
I also like Scott Galloway. He is more business focused than global demographics focused, and also speaks to our mistakes with turning social media loose on our teens, with zero regulations.
Very cool 😅 Very informative, my favorite speaker.
peter shows up at 4:30
The real mvp
This is he homie! We found you.
When did he give this lecture?
This is fantastic.
He seems to give it every couple of weeks 😂. Man is quite popular right now.
At the start the slide said oct 18th 2023 so fairly recently. But ya he like is like booked on giving talks it seems like.
Of Course even USA's demographic chart is barrel chested LOL
Blaming the Boomers for destroying the American family is an amazing statement and I am 100% on board
He had the data to back it up
Video starts @4:31
Thanks
Some great points, but I feel like they're too rooted in raw economics. There's far more at play in driving global change than just economics, and it's impossible to discern, even in hindsight, which single driving force has the largest impact at any one time.
Peter touches on bits of this through references to specific historical contexts, but the key points he makes are absolutely based around an economic model of global events.
I think the discussion on generations is actually very relevant to that end; while the points made around the Boomers influence on Gen X are very valid, one thing that's just as relevant is how the relative stability of the past ~60 years has influenced Gen X.
Their world was defined by predictability. Relatively stable economies, relatively stable social norms, relatively predictable geopolitics. Their greatest challenges and successes were defined by their participation in the US economy.
I think this is partly why so much of our current discourse of where we're going is focused around the economics of the future. It's not to say this is bad or wrong, but far too many people fall into the trap of trying to make things align to the reality they're more used to rather than looking at the wider picture.
Apparently YPO is Young Presidents' Organization "an American-based worldwide leadership community of chief executives with more than 34,000 global members in more than 142 countries"
I have a Missouri LLC consulting in the energy related commodities Called: Low Carbon Alternative, LLC., i am not too busy.
" Gen X your time has arrived " yea, the only problem is we're almost 60 and ready to retire." my body hurts from having to do construction because there were no other jobs." thank you, boomers, for screwing us are whole lives. 😂
our
@@sidequestsally Thanks Grammarly
@@frankprit3320 bet!
Wow !! You Expressed my experience exactly as I get up this morning sore from working construction !!! I was just thinking about how hard it was following the the boomers all my life
That's exactly why I bought bitcoin at 46,,, A LOT OF BITCOIN,,,, FULL ROUNDS,,,,,, BAGS OF THEM!
Also I can write like Peter speaks. 😂
@1:38:00 "we don't do that for road, [...or] rail" ah yes all those rails and cars coming in via the friggin ocean
1:17:00 Reminds of how the OG Republicans had Business and Labor together.
Yeah I know
Thank you very much ❤
Why don’t politicians talk like this?
volume (sound) on this is very bad but otherwise very interesting
Thats what happens when BEC Finance steals Peter's content. Blame the uploader who purposely fucked the audio so youtube would not ding him for theft.
robots consume too - grease, electricity and spare parts
Intro noises end 4:30 in.
Peter is exceptional but the audio is terrible. I had to leave the video at 6:32.
Blame the uploader, he or she stole the content, screwed the audio up so the copyright algorithm at YT would not label him as a thief.
did I hear him correctly, "We will lose Paris and Chicago" I listened back a couple times I didnt get the connection to the topic at that point about "Russia Winning"?
It's at 1:08:10.
The connection is that if Russia wins in Ukraine, then they will invade a NATO country then fight and lose because they are a terrible army. They will then respond with nukes.
I appreciate the suggestion of an amendment to make the Jones. Acts more functional always felt that a suspicion of enforcement would be the best.
Find I understand it's to trenched So a man not repeal I really like that.
Being a fan of Peter (and his style actually), it has to be noted now that we in fact are talking about nuclear threats again. Not so sure that his expertise extends to understanding current Russian/Chinese leaders…?
I didn't hear anything about Vietnam as a manufacturing base especially for the core door they did bring up Indonesia but Vietnam is a much better CANDIdate.. How quickly can vietnam come online is that an option???
This sounds like somebody snuck in a recording device. I'll try to find this podcast elsewhere.
I like him, but he is wrong about Australia's sub-prime situation. As a consequence of the GFC, parliament set some rules behind the guarantee to the banks. Since 2010, the equivalent of sub-prime mortgages, low doc mortgages, has dropped from 6.4 % to 0.1%. House prices are still too high, but that has been driven by low housing availability. While immigration remains, the fundamentals will keep prices high. Increasing interest rates have put some recent home buyers into mortgage stress, but the undersupply is still in control.
Peter is a generalist. The moment you go into pointy details, you can see his flaws. On the other side, I want to know where the icebergs are floating too, not the individual snowflake.
Yeah but the amount of people in mortgage stress is around 35%. That's insane...
I don't necessarily think the market in AUS is overrated (maybe Sydney and Melbourne) but the numbers aren't great. You have the 2nd highest household debt to gdp ratio in the world too, behind only my country of Switzerland.
18:37 this hurt with truth as a 40 year old millennial
you guys paid PZ's appearance fee but you need to pay an audio engineer to figure out how to upload the mic feed
thank you for correcting the age of the eldest millenial
If you’re brutal at public speaking like the two folks that introduced Peter try to avoid it or keep it short. That was brutal
I'm just glad they paid his speaking fee and uploaded it for free.
Hi Peter, Tim O'Neill here, in the past, after some comments you have asked me to contact you but i only use email. Freedoms are not likely abandoned
....Zeihan didnt post this video. This isnt his RUclips channel, why would you address him directly in a comment feed for a video he didnt post and isnt on his channel? Do you not understand how this works?
The internet is just a series of tubes!!!!
on't happen again@@Bigbudd0045
won't happen again@@Bigbudd0045
@@kurtru5selcrowe607 Wait... it's not a big truck?
He said this same shit 10 years ago. Except Ukraine. He did call that
The Green Revolution debunked. Thank you
Milei
audio sucks
And they were asking India and China to not buy from Russia 😅
Bro, prices would have skyrocketed back home otherwise.
24:50 you have been saying that for over 10 years peter
That's kinda funny because I've only followed him for 3hree years and I'll grant you the ten years part, but some pretty big details have changed recently. Ten years off on China collapsing isn't very long in the scope of things, especially compared to nearly every other news source and analyst sounding the China's a huge threat alarm. Seems that real time current events are carrying the day in Peter's direction. Guess we'll have a pretty definitive answer by 2030.
Here's a great idea, let's let a few billionaires buy up all the residential property, use it as a value-base for multi-level derivatives trading, driving up the price so high that it's of no use of shelter.
first 4 minutes are talking heads, just so you can skip all the corporate namedrops.
I am from France and i have all my capital in USD dominated assets. I own more USD than EUR. Because i see day after day Europe killinh themselves. Peter dont worry the capital will flow to USA from Europe. I also dream to live in USA 😮.
Come on over. We need more people that love America. Send some of these idiots to Europe. No i love Europe
Yeah no kidding man... Im Swiss I hold mostly assets in CHF (and RE) and yeah we're doing well for now, but I see the madness going on in the EU and...
I NEED TO GET TF OUT OF HERE ASAP.
Man it's hard to immigrate to the good places like US legally. Like really hard.
Jesus. 4 and a half minutes of introduction??? 😴 By now his bio should read, "You know him. Peter Zeihan.".
They didnt forget fuel and food. They brought almost nothing assuming some quick victory and ocupation. I guess
Peter just phrases it like that to be cute.
When leadership assumes and doesn't plan on difficulties that is exactly what forgetting is. Forgetting history, forgetting murphy's law, forgetting that assuming is a mistake to never forget to not make.
Imbecile invasion that reeks of arrogance and incompetence; they signed their own conviction to exile from the civilised world for the next decades or even a century.
This cuts through the propaganda...demographics and geography.
For one he doesn't do it for free anyone who puts up RUclips videos does not do it for free trust me I don't do it just for the hell of it I do it to try to earn money through my ads
Speaking as a Boomer, I have some disagreement with Peter as far as our assets and investments. It may be true that we may not be investing to create capital but we are spending the assets that we have accumulated and are passing assets to our children. I have no idea how this capital is factored into economic growth; however, we are not dying and taking it with us.
You are living longer and medical costs are rising dramatically. You’re likely to spend way more of your retirement money than any other generation.
@@todd1547 Bingo.
@@todd1547in other words, invest in eldercare
I am a boomer who gave my 3 children what they needed for the future. Knowledge of climate change. Education. Knowledge of science. Importance of voting. Save for wants and needs. My kids do not have to pay for my old age. 5 grandchildren Gen Z my children 2 Gen X. 1 millennial
I don't think he answered the Cuba/US and Russia/Ukraine question properly.
China numba one 42:00
Dreadful acoustics. Avoid speaking engagements located in hangers
I kinda have to sigh when he goes on his millennial rants. Like, we were not given a chance to develop skills. We were blamed for every mistake the boomers made. Gen Xers did nothing to correct the boomers bad behavior or change policies to course correct. And now here we are, and all the things millenials have been warning about for most of our lives have come to a head and the best they can say is "WELL MILLENIALS. BAD."
We are the most educated, diverse, driven generation in history. Given half a chance our productivity dumpsters that of the boomers and gen x, and there are a lot of us that would love to have any kind of reasonable work to do. But if we are not willing to follow, its because we have not seen any reason to trust the people trying to lead us. We did not have any jobs when we graduated or came out of trade school. The bad behavior of the boomers collapsed the economy, THREE TIMES right when we should have been at our best. Everything costs more for us and we have had little to no chance to build savings like the generations before us. My dad was able to work summers at my granddads bike shop and pay for a whole year of college. Most people my age were extremely lucky to end college with less than 20k in debt.
Spare me, even the jokes. In virtually every respect millennials were and are straight up better than boomers or gen x, and the older generations just cant handle the fact that they screwed things up so badly that we never got to flourish, and now they have to rely on us to save them after they did everything in their power to stop us from helping.
I'm gen X and if it's any consolation I don't think the "greatest generation" was so great. They let WWI and WWII happen and produced what, a nuclear arms race that sidetracked nearly everything for a Cold War and every bit of crap that came with it. I lump the silent gen in with these F-ups to.
I often compare Hitler's third Reich to Jesus's kingdom. With neither being built of brick and mortar, but both being alive and well.
My parents and grand parents were all lucky to survive birth and child hood. They knew real suffering and pain just to survive, let alone have a chance at easy living.
We're all products of imperfection and terrible mistakes and not yours or any other gen will escape the human condition. It's not because your parents or grandparents effed up. It's because we're human and we fail. This old blaming the young people and calling them lazy or saying there's no good music since blah blah days, etc etc is what I call age pollution. Don't let it get you, kid. It's an insidious, bitter thing that creeps into your heart and steals life's joy. Every age and gen brings beauty and life. You're part of a gen that has a chance to foster new life going into an era that will likely see the gene pool shrink significantly. My beautiful millenial son is dead from fentanyl. Most would never guess he ever touched those drugs. My beautiful daughter has a beautiful 1ne yr old son. I consider him an embassador to the future in this brave new world. Go live a great life and let all this other crap go. Best to yuh!
@@marcariotto1709 Cheers mate, thanks for the perspective. Sorry to hear about your son, hopefully he didnt suffer, and I hope your daughter and grandchild have all the happiness they can gather!
@@marcariotto1709spoken like a poet... Well done man, well done. Good perspective. I am sorry for your loss.
Another gen x member here! You said everything that could be said ! Build it very badly and pass the b.s. down to the next generation's and not care because they will be gone by the time anyone notices! The same problems of gutting social programs in order to justify military budget spending happened here in some of the same ways by " pull yourself up by your boot straps" Reagan and his boyish charms! This is why we are going through the pushback against globalization due to all the cheap labor,transport, manufacturing, and price points for the growing marketplace of low paid consumers who have to borrow to pay for what we need! So the following generation s are screwed over severely and we will look around and see the truth!
I dont agree with Zeihan on his view of the US Navy and its diminishing role as the world's guarantor of world trade. The US navy has been as powerful as it is for the same reason as the Royal navy was in the 19th century - power projection pure and simple. The US navy will be the most powerful navy for many decades to come and if a side effect is hassle-free maritime trade that will be a bonus.
The US Navy may be just as powerful as it has ever been, but it is structurally different than what it used to be. Large carrier groups are well and good when you need to use force in a particular location. Either being nearby to project it, or actually use it to overthrow a country. But to police the worlds oceans you need a large fleet of frigates and cutters (smaller ships) patrolling here and there and everywhere. In general, the US has been leaning more and more towards the carrier groups and the big ships that tag along there and less towards smaller ships out patrolling. This is where/how the US has been slowly easing out of the game of global ocean cop.
with the necessary addition that the Europeans will ride on the coatails of its success to rebuild themselves and be a part of that change and not put themselves in the past. But put themselves in the future. That will need to be a ppossiblity for the Europeans to have the probaility for it self to be able to capture that spark of genius and ride it back to the top.
Biden and trump are the most similar presidents in terms of international commerce and relations ????? come on mate.
What handful of people are you talking to? Who attended CONFERENCES?? What a ridiculous question right?
Who 😅has been a member of the US Con😅 gress? Sign in please.
His predicts are hit and miss (how many times he's predicted teh collapse of China) but I really love how he breaks down economics and logistics and makes the easy to consume and process.
He wasn't wrong about China. It's imploding as we speak. Peter's problem is he tries to put a specific date on things, but the world is too unstable to operate on a specific timetable
Peter was accurate that China will break up and it's starting to happen now. Other analysts are seeing it now and the naysayers are beginning to hate the taste of crow for saying Zeihan was very wrong since the beginning. They forgot that demographic trends take decades to work out and are just realizing that Zeihan was ahead of them all by predicting major global trends beyond five to twenty-five years in advance.
@@inoculateinoculate9486 Basically Peter's data is generally correct, but his conclusions should be taken with a grain of salt.
I've followed his assessments and forecasts since the 2000s at STRATFOR. It's funny how most people don't understand the information he's conveying at a level appropriate for its quality, and hear simplified translations in their heads that generally get some form of the message.
I don't agree with him on some things, but I've never heard anyone have such a grasp of so many different pivotal disciplines integrate them into a comprehensive picture.
I hear it pointed out in comments sections often about how inaccurate his predictions are. I suspect they're presented as "predictions" as opposed to "plausible scenarios", at least partially, for entertainment value. I'm more susceptible to click bait than I should be, but likely actually less so than most. The point is that it might be necessary to make exaggerated claims so as to help keep an audience and continue to get all these invitations to speak. Maybe. Anyway, who has been significantly better in the "prediction" game?
Sure he threw a lot of cold water over how feasible the green revolution is, but chemistry and physics don't care how hard something is they'll have played out and will continue to play out exactly how scientists have predicted they would. I wish someone had asked him to elaborate on how he thinks the challenges of global warming will affect these "best laid" plans. As pro-American as his talk was everyone, including America, will be affected by it so while maybe the awfulness of demographics and geography will be blunted by America's fortunate circumstances global warming has the potential to undo a lot of that. The best place for the chip industry to take root in America are in the West (AZ and CO), but if you don't have enough water it won't matter. So while maybe it's not EVs, wind, and solar everywhere we do need a technology to fit here. Nuclear has been on the table the whole time how much can it address if it's built out?
I think his political views make climate change a weakness of his. I want to know how climate refugees will affect global demographies
@justinokraski3796 "Climate refugees" is just a new marketing term for the same old economic migration that has relentlessly hit the developed world for the last 30 years.
@@jacobzindel987 well unless global warming accelerates economic migration because of habitat loss due to climate change. There's economic issues that drive migration, but now there are additional economic issues solely caused by global warming. Decreased/Increased rainfall pushing farmers away from farming in Latin America as an example. Longer sea routes due to Panama Canal drying up, etc.
1:17:38 "but they don't have the numbers to win unless something happens"
Richard Baris would disagree and Baris has a history of being accurate and ahead of the curve on polling. I like Zeihan but he's working with numbers others provide and if those numbers are wrong then so is the analysis.
That is key: every time I see something like this, I ask “…How is he wrong?” If his observations are so concrete and obvious everyone would see them. Where are the blind spots and how will populations respond to these challenges? Decades ago we thought overpopulation would lead us to starve, we didn’t anticipate the amount of innovation in agriculture.
@@adamsmith7701 Zeihan has his head above the clouds which lets him see large scale pictures and distant threats but it also means he misses problems closer to the ground like institution self-preservation and propagation.
I've listened to him less as I've changed to look for individuals who make short-term improbable predictions with high accuracy. It's made me much more populist than I would have expected pre-2020 as those people tend to be treated like Cassandra.
Peter fails to mention the divorce rate increase due to the facts outlined by the Red Pill movement.
Lol
Red pill movement 🤓👆
Yeah! A movement run by males with the brains of 13-year-olds.
Bad audio, speaker is politically biased and slanted to the point of not dealing with reality.
This guy is agenda first.
Will this guy eventually stfu when nothing actually happens?
Zeihan is a grifter. I wish RUclips would stop promoting his click-bait
garbage. They're continually putting his crap into my recommendations even
though I downvote each one, mark the channel as "Don't Recommend" and nuke
all trace of it from my history. They keep coming back. I bet there's money
involved. The sure mark of some sort of scam.
Grifter? He has been a geopolitical consultant for decades. He isnt selling anything other than analysis. You can check his demographic data yourself. Whether you buy his conclusions is a whole other story. What is he grifting? Is he grifting more than Ian Bremmer or any other geopoltical consultant? BTW, downvoting a video wont remove it from your feed, ignoring them will help though. Downvoting indicates you interacted with a video and that is all RUclips cares about...it isnt as complex a system as Google would have people believe. Just dont click on the videos, scroll past, unless you are interacting with a ton of geopolitical videos that should sort itself out after a few weeks.
He's been a geopolitical consultant for years with no scandals or multilevel marketing BS. It a simple 1 hour talk that He's given hundreds of times to business groups throughout the US, Canada and Europe. As such, He's become very familiar with the material. Which may come off as a "Pitch". If you pay attention, you'll notice he pitches the United States and the opportunities to make it more prosperous. Not bring it down.
Someone please call the Wahmbulance.
Sure ok Mish, prove it. What's YOUR position? How is it different from Peters? You don't even need your own position, just give me a few instances where he went wrong. Go on, we'll wait. Low bar too, no one is an oracle, so this one should be easy. Let's see if you even know his work or if he just pissed you off because you like China or something.
Block him then. I think he’s great!