Editors Oscars 2024 predictions slugfest: With 'Oppenheimer' dominating, what will be the upsets?
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- Опубликовано: 4 мар 2024
- Editors Oscars 2024 predictions slugfest: With 'Oppenheimer' poised to dominate, where are the potential upsets? Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon and Daniel Montgomery, along with news and features editor Ray Richmond and Tariq Khan - regular Gold Derby contributor and encyclopedic awards expert extraordinaire - got together to slug it out over their Oscar predictions in all 23 categories.
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Tariq got offended last time because we didn't take his Insider votes seriously, wonder if he realizes now why we don't
Let's not forget that Tariq also predicted Bradley Cooper, Danielle Brooks and Margot Robbie to win at SAG based on his insider conversations, so yes it is safe to say that Sandra Huller is out of the race
😂😂
“I’ve been talking to some voters out of literally thousands so this is who the winner will be…”
even the die hard sandra stans mourned her chances after bafta. her not winning there was the equivalent of colin farrell losing there last year.
Yup he flopped.. he was even touting himself about no one believing him lol
😆
Tariq Khan back with his "voters are saying" nonsense. Reminder that he said all season that voters loved Maestro/Bradley Cooper, that he wasn't hearing any SAG votes for Lily Gladstone, and that you could take it to the bank that Danielle Brooke was winning BAFTA, SAG and Oscar.
Some of you seem physically hurt (Ray) predicting Murphy lol. What in the world did that man who would never hurt a fly do to you?
This seems to be the vibe I get from most pundits who had Cooper or Giamatti down as their pick pre award season.
Ray high on copiun thinking best actor is still a race, but I do agree the next time Paul is nominated the narrative will be stronger
He seems physically hurt even pronouncing his name, what did Cillian do to him for the love of god?
Nah I’ll take it. It’s basically them admitting they were hopedicting. Even Jeff Sneider officially switched in the new FYC video today.
The suggestion that Downey's position as frontrunner was decided before awards voting began is BS. He received the most wins from regional film critics associations, in addition to CC, GG, SAG & BAFTA. You're saying none of that was based on his performance? All of those votes were sentimental? The guy leads the most successful franchise of all time, and you say that those films weren't legitimate cinema, that people only went to see the costumes & sfx. He's lined up to win an Oscar, and you say that he hasn't really earned it. I don't get the disrespect.
😮
Agreed. I didn't love him, well Oppie at all, but I thought he was due way back when with Chaplin. He was great in that movie. He's one of those actors who makes odd character choices that, well, make his seemingly ordinary characters slightly odd. I love that. Always something new. When he does an artistic piece vs a money making object, he impresses me like Cage, Day Lewis, Burton, Gosling, etc.
I know it’s obvious since American Fiction mostly centers its subject around writing stories, but I do think the “story about a writer ” narrative can somewhat apply to Anatomy as well.
Oscars should be about performance…. Not about narrative. They aren’t charity, it’s annoying.
Sometimes they go away from the narrative. I hope they do the Hopkins/Boseman this year for Emma Stone
Everyone should have a pony, too. In the real world, it's a combination of performance and narrative, and people must make their peace.
Lily Gladstone would deservedly win based on the merits of her performance. Everytime I watch Killers of the Flower Moon I become so enamored with her in this very subtle but also sly nuanced performance.
@friendlypup5650 But MA Rainey's Black Bottom had less Oscar nominations than Killers of the Flower Moon. This means that Lily Gladstone has more visibility than Chadwick Boseman. Also the Bafta awards were broadcast right before Oscar voting, which was a huge boost for Hopkins. This year, Lily Gladstone won the SAG award the same week Oscar voting began. I think the momentum is in her favor.
@@AfroAngola Chadwick Boseman is black panther. Are you really gonna argue he had less visibility? I agree Lily is the frontrunner, I’m just stating that the history makes sense. Oscar voting began after bafta where stone had all the hype, also sag and Oscars are in fact two different voting bodies and have split before. I’m biased so I’ll be rooting for Stone but I understand who has the momentum
Thank you for the kind and insightful comments. ❤
Shakespeare in Love was not an upset. It went back and forth with Saving Private Ryan that season and got the most Oscar nominations which used to be a more significant tell. The only reason people were surprised really is because winning Best Director used to mean Best Picture, and there is this idea that WWII movie centering men + visual grittiness + memorializing many people's grandpas = more important movie than a female-centered costume dramedy set hundreds of years ago that skews female in its audience. If it weren't for the opening Normandy sequence, SIL might have taken cinematography. It was exquisite. Ranking SIL as undeserving has an undercurrent of misogyny (to be clear, Daniel's not doing that, he's just reflecting on how it's viewed historically),and it needs to stop.
Soooo Agreed. I Love that movie. It's very much an actors movie why it could have won. The script going from their love story intermingled with Romeo and Juliet coming to life on stage is something special in and of itself.
But Then there's Crash. 😅
I remember calling a Shakespeare in Love win and over the years am amused the ‘upset’ angle has caught on. It would have bn an upset only had Spielberg lost director.
With all due respect to Ray, Cillian was always a frontrunner. He's extremely popular because of his TV show, which is a worldwide hit because of Netflix. He is beloved by a lot of voters. And he is in a biopic that is beloved and a frontrunner.
Man, I'm so bummed you all went with ABCs of Book Banning, I thought it was the weakest short among all three categories (it's basically a Powerpoint presentation of a bunch of books that have been banned). Now I'm worried it'll actually win!
Emma Stone for Actress but Sandra Hueller would be a pleasant surprise!
Cillian over Paul G. for Actor!
It's very fitting to compare Christopher Nolan's win for Oppenheimer to Steven Spielberg’s win for Schindler's List because now that Spielberg is a presenter he's obviously presenting Best Director. Can't wait for that!! 🙏🙏😆
In the 1989 movie “Dead Poets Society” Robin Williams does a better job than Giamatti in the role of teacher who gets fired from job at an elite New England boarding school. It is Da'Vine Joy Randolph performance that elevates “The Holdovers” that is why she is winning an Giamatti is not.
Except for the year The Eye of Tammy Faye won Makeup at the Oscars, every film since Dallas Buyers Club won some kind of Makeup Guild win leading up to their Oscar win. Also, it won the EXACT same categories as Mad Max: Fury Road, Darkest Hour, & Vice did at the guilds before winning the Oscar; granted: all three were much stronger films within their respective years, but it makes a difference that Maestro was the only Oscar nominee to win at the guild & has Kazu Hiro behind it, who managed to win for Bombshell as well.
C'mon Ray. 60-40 for Murphy. Just kidding - Oscar does surprise. However, I would say it's at least 80-20 for Cillian Murphy. Don't be reluctant - make the change to Oppie or roll the dice for Paul - he did give an Oscar worthy performance. Just not his year according to me - one of the worst predictors. That said - it's all so much fun! Great listen, guys. Thanks.
The Oscars always bring a mix of excitement and suspense, don't they? It's fascinating to speculate about potential upsets, especially in a year where a powerhouse like 'Oppenheimer' is dominating conversations. The beauty of the Oscars lies in its ability to surprise us - sometimes the dark horses in the race emerge as the winners, captivating the hearts of both the jury and the audience. No matter what, the celebration of cinema and the recognition of hard work and talent are truly the stars of the night. Let's stay tuned and cheer for all the nominees; each has brought something special to the big screen!
None of the animated shorts are available to watch. So I’ve seen none of those.
Hueller all the way :) Love Benning too... bth so nuanced and mature performances and I don't mean age..... it's a craft and sensibility thing.
I like Oppenheimer for Adapted Screenplay, but that BAFTA win for American Fiction causes me to pause in picking it for Oscar. I agree with those saying Oppenheimer has the best script - it should win, but probably won't. Also, why is Barbie in Adapted (based on just a doll), but May December (based on a true story) and Maestro (based on a real life person) are considered original? So confusing.
I don't buy the argument that Oppenheimer winning screenplay as part of a sweep. If true, then why these same predictors predicting is it to lose production design, costume, make up, and supporting actress to other films? It seems like you cherry pick the categories you want it to sweep in. American Fiction has won three precursors and Oppenheimer has won none.
Still picking Emma. The int’l members that SAG don’t have will propel her.The Academy may not go for yet another narrative angle win this year.
I think the true crime here is everyone smearing Bradely Copper as a THIRSTY wannabe Oscar winner come Oscar night, which I don't disagree, BUT SO IS CHRISTPHER NOLAN with OPPENHEIMER. This is a perfect example of a mirror event of Steven Spielberg with Shindler's List. lol. I even think Dunkirk is a miles better than Oppenheimer. All I wanted to do was sleep during Oppenheimer, WITH NO CONVERSATIONAL INTEREST, unlike Killers of the Flower Moon. At least that movie was entertaining, regardless of how long it was as well. The only film that was actually entertaining was The Holdovers, but also very cinematic. Don't even mention Barbie, will not take you seriously. lol. That's a Blockbuster film, not a cinema film. That movie isn't even both Blockbuster+Cinema kind of film, not like Silence of the Lambs or Lord of the Rings.
I love Past Lives, but there's a strong chance that it will be the only Best Picture nominee to not win a single Oscar
One last comment on this video. Why is Maestro even considered for Makeup/Hairstyling when Poor Things and Oppenheimer blow it out of the water in this category? Denton's take on Poor Things is spot on. And the way Oppenheimer, and the others, age over the decades is so impressive and realistic. Like I said, Poor Things and Oppenheimer deserve this award over Lenny's artificial nose. Just my take.
Maestro characters also age convincingly.
I agree. I just prefer Oppenheimer. Maestro will probably win here so it won't be Oscar-less. @@TimeIdle
GODZILLA MINUS 1 WINNER❤❤❤
Sandra Hüller is not going to win best actress... she is ABSOLUTELY pulling from Emma Stone! Lily Gladstone is sorta a surprise tbh, just bc she has not won the most support all season. Like, calm down Tariq. Daniel, ur completely correct. Emma Stone is rooting for Lily and so is the rest of the voting community. Emma has her Oscar, I'm sure she will have another win upcoming in a few years, can't say the same for Lily
I will be booing from the rooftops if Gladstone wins simply because of the fact she'll get it because you know why.
Maybe what i say is offensive but winning Mostly for that reason is quite offensive to me.
It’s not the same as last year’s Jamie Lee curtis win which was strictly based on narrative. Lily was really good this year, although I thought Emma was a bit better.
the moment for lily gladstone to make oscar history to become the first native American to win best actress is epic. in Oscar history there has been no native American winning an Oscar of any kind. so to become the first native American to win best actress is huge in epic proportion.
Absolutely, and for a great performance. It's also huge because it's what the late great Marlon Brando fought for in Hollywood for so many years in his advocacy for Native American rights.
@@MovieandTVexpert1Sacheen Fakefeather? Sure. Whata bogus.
Lily will win mostly because she's Native American.