Experts slugfest: Oscar voting is closed and Best Actress is still a toss-up
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- Опубликовано: 5 июл 2024
- Gold Derby editors and Experts Christopher Rosen and Joyce Eng discuss some anonymous ballots with Oscar voting over. What can we glean from them? Not much, but don't forget to shake a voter's hand if you're a nominee. Plus: The return of the acting tribute presentation, how the presence of SAG Award snubbee Sandra Hüller changes the Best Actress race, why Cillian Murphy may have been underestimated and more.
Email your questions to slugfests@goldderby.com.
Timestamps:
Intro and anonymous ballots (0:00)
The power of schmoozing (4:03)
Spread-the-wealth voting (6:35)
Listener questions (10:53)
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Gold Derby features celebrity videos plus expert predictions, tracking who will win Oscars, Emmys, Grammys, Tonys, Golden Globes and top reality TV shows 'The Amazing Race,' 'American Idol,' 'Dancing with the Stars,' 'Survivor,' 'The Voice' and more. 
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Something else people overlook in the Cillian conversation is the amazing supporting cast and how people like RDJ (who knows it’s a lock) and Emily Blunt (who knows she’s not winning) pretty much switched to campaigning for Cillian more than themselves. Even Matt Damon talked about how him and Affleck were talking about how Matt was in awe of what he was seeing Cillian do. People are straight up spreading the good word on his behalf. Damon and Affleck went on to co-produce Cillian’s new film with him - it’s being very well received - and him and Matt had never even met prior to Oppenheimer. Clearly despite not being “Hollywood” he has no issues winning people over.
Yes, you definitely noticed that after Critics Choice, Emily/RDJ and others stepped up their campaign for Cillian. And there has been increased media exposure such 60 minutes interview and Jimmy Kimmel.
Totally 👍🏻 their support to Cillian and I would add to Nolan as well who are the two introverts of the bunch was invaluable
This one just reminded us again of why we love you. As always, youse twose are the berries. More, please, thank you.
I am ALL for Sandra. 100% my fav film and performance. Very nuanced and mature.
Thank you guys for always staying on the level-headed side of narratives around the best actor race. Now with winning SAG those who still predict Paul are outed as being of bad faith and spiteful.
They ignored his GG win when he took out Cooper out of the race just like that, then hoped on the Paul train even more so after Critics Choice and what annoyed me the most is that they reduced his BAFTA win to " being Irish" while he became the first Irish man ever winning BAFTA in a lead actor category while tons of Americans have won before, even against other Irish or British actors. This was simply disturbing and quite frankly, a bit xenophobic/racist (which ironically is what they label BAFTA as being...)
💯 but all of this has a reason he’s literally the anti Hollywood which is why none of the major publications would put him as a front runner until it was 100% clear that he was. They discounted him as nobody in Hollywood he’s gonna notice him, but actually his performance was so great and he’s so down to earth and humble that he won them over. Also when they were trying to push the Giamatti narrative that he is due and all this crap even after BAFTA somehow they always forgot to mention that Cillian too won a Globe and that Giamatti is not 90 but he’s basically more or less the same age as the other nominees.
Racist? LOL.. Irish isn't a race..
Amyway, Paul is not winning the Oscar, that is going to Cillian. Paul was great in The Holdovers though.
@@twononcriticsandacat
Cillian all the way to accept his Oscar!
It's a done deal.
@mamadouaziza2536 that's why i also said xenophobic. Btw America has collectively decided that Irish people were white less than 100 years ago, they were considered second class citizens for a while (like Italians, Polish) because of mostly religion (catholics), though it doesn't get close to how other minorities were persecuted. Being Irish in the UK or the US isn't the advantage many think it is, especially with the former.
Thank you for standing on your ground fair and square unlike some bloggers and critics that I routinely follow for many years. This year is very special and unique. The best of the best should win without the sassy narratives and sentiments that been playing on every campaign since the dinosaurs age. Joyce, if Murphy takes Best Actor on March 10, You should be the number one Guru. At this moment many are not predicting a lock for him. There’s still a dream that PG would still take it just means they aren’t confident in their prediction fear of failure. Team Murphy all the way
Actor is locked for Murphy. BAFTA + SAG, it's over for everyone else
Thank you for addressing the way certain people have been treating & speaking about Cillian Murphy this awards season. It’s like they just counted him out for whatever reasons they could come up with in favour of someone else. It’s been driving me crazy. After Golden Globes most critic’s/pundits just turned straight from Bradley to Giamatti & it was really weird how they just ignored the fact Cillian was winning too. And he had been winning awards before GG. Cillian has always had the momentum & never lost it since Oppenheimer came out.
Paul Giamatti & Cillian Murphy are both so similar in reasons why they should win. Close in age (only 9 years between them), close in times starting their careers (around the 90’s), both been largely supporting players now getting more leads roles. Both starring in popular tv series. Both giving amazing performances in their films. Except Paul kept getting the veteran, due, he’s been nominated in the past narrative that I couldn’t understand why. 🤷♀️ I know he’s beloved by me included but so is Cillian. He’s just more low key.
Anyways I’m glad it’s undeniable now that this is Cillian’s moment. His year. He’s done so well & I’m glad he’s being recognised for the phenomenal, revolutionary performance he gave us in Oppenheimer. Hope it’s his name engraved on the Oscar in 10 days time. 🤞🙏
I think that people forget that you can be drawn or relate to something for reasons that aren’t warm and fuzzy. Oppenheimer may draw on your negative receptors because it puts a feeling a trepidation in your stomach, for instance, but, that doesn’t make it any less powerful of an emotional experience. This is a movie that can also make you cry (as Stephen Colbert can personally attest to, as he spoke to doing so for 5 min. after an Oppenheimer screening), it simply won’t be out of happiness or joy.
This is true and while I am an admittedly easy movie crier, the end of Oppenheimer had me overcome with emotion in a way few movies in recent years have accomplished.
Snoop had a better Oscar campaign than Sandra
True but I'm pretty sure, if at All, the Cesar's are more important to her than Oscar's.
🤭
Agree with your discussion about movie-makers negatively impacting TV episodes. For example, I miss a TV show like the X-files
My theory for the Cillian Murphy diss - that more people identify him as a TV actor cuz of Peaky and not so much a movie actor despite his filmography. The snobbery is real.
I love Paul but let’s go down the line with him vs Cillian
Paul
Man on the moon
Cinderella man
The illusionist
Lady in the water
Shoot em up
Ides of March
12 years a slave
Straight out of Compton
The holdovers
Cillian
28 days later
Cold mountain
Batman begins
Red eye
Sunshine
Inception
Red lights
Quiet place 2
Peaky Blinders
Oppenheimer
Aside from other movies I feel those are some of their better roles and it’s about even as far as body of work… I want Cillian to take it though.
@@Jigganaut80 Cillian also has a small, but important role in Dunkirk as a soldier who survives a torpedo attack in the water. His character is obviously traumatized as hell. Great acting from him in this one.
Cillian will be on that stage to accept his Oscar.. Its a done deal..
@@Jigganaut80my favorite Cillian movie is “The Wind that Shakes The Barley” - amazing film made by the great Ken Loach
Joyce is speaking directly to me at the 24:00 minute mark. I have tremendous difficulty getting to the theatre, and I rely on you two (and a handful of others) to let me know what I need to prioritize and why (for example - whether it's a must-see in the "best" theatre available - IMAX, Dolby - or whether to show the movie some love so that it can go into even wider release).
Since 2001 when both BAFTA and SAG were actual precursors, no Actress has won without SAG or BAFTA under her belt, if Sandra pulls it off, it'd be a massive shock
I agree with your points about the best actor discourse. It's annoying to see some people come up with excuses to predict Paul Giamatti over Cillian Murphy to win, which is mind-blowing but hilarious at the same time.
Hope dicting beyond belief. 😆 🤣 😂
This is proving that they weren't predicting him out of spite from the start. What's the excuse now? People who called this out from post GG were called "paranoid stans" and what not... i am not even a Murphy fan originally lol
Almost done with all my Oscar predictions, still thinking about what I should pick for actress, vfx and costumes. Gladly I still have a little more than a week left to figure things out, you guys picking different best actress winners definitely makes me more confused lmao
Best Actress could break for any of those three, that's why it is (other than that it being an above the line category) the most exciting race of the night. I do think they are onto something regarding Lily Gladstone. She won SAG so she has actor's support (the largest component of the Acadey); we all realize it would be an historic win narratively & Emma Stone & Sandra Huller could split International support. All three of these factors work in Lily's favor, that's why I'm picking her. Visual Effects comes down to Godzilla Minus One & The Creator (Godzilla has the narrative, The Creator did extremely well at the Visual Effects Society Awards). It's quality of effects vs. narrative in that category, so a true toss-up. Costumes is between Barbie & Poor Things. Historically in this category they like to reward the same designer over and over compared to a first time nominee, so that favors Barbie. Poor Things however is the stronger movie overall and it's costumes are true originals where as Barbie's are recreations. So again, a true toss-up. My picks are Lily Gladstone, Godzilla Minus One & Barbie.
It was all about Sophia saying Meryl Streep.
This is the first video of yours I've watched, after your channel was recommended by a friend who is PhD-ing in film studies. Instant subscribe!
Welcome! Thanks for watching!
We all know its gonna be Lily and Cillian.. Its a done deal.. This year's Oscars are gonna be so predictable..
Best Picture: Oppie
Best Director: Chris Nolan
Best Actor: Cillian
Best Actress: Lily
Best Sup Actor: Robert Downing Jr.
Best Sup Actress: Da'vine
I'm happy hear Shogun is more like Succession (my fave) than GoT (I only watched the 1st ep and didn't like), planning to watch tomorrow!
The sound was my favorite aspect of Dune 2. But I still would've voted for The Zone of Interest, which might have the best use of sound in any movie ever. I personally think Timothée is worthy of best actor for his work in Dune 2.
Im glad there doing the presentation format of 2009, 5 past winners! For acting categories.😊
YAY!
Thanks for answering my question (about Oppenheimer and above/below the line). I tend to agree, it's just a unicorn. I just remember my intial impression was "oh the biggest movies win techs AND acting AND picture."
Only Austin thing i remember making you sound perhaps snarky towards him but truly just commenting on him being in character was all last season inferencing in interviews with Butler he'd probably be in his Elvis voice. That's what i recall.
It could be one of those years where voters just check off Oppenheimer in most categories to win just because it's such a strong contender, unless it's glaringly in favor of one or two other nominees like Make-Up & Hairstyling. Safe to say Oppenheimer is winning Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor, Cinematography, Film Editing and Score. That's 7 for sure. I think it has the potential to win between 7-9 if it picks up Sound and if Barbie/Poor Things split in Production Design and it sneaks in for the win (thinking of All Quiet's surprise win in the same category from last year).
Sandra could also have the support from those who love The Zone of Interest, which is the holocaust related movie, and pull off the Adrien Brody win🥇
2009 they were all one time winners in their categories
Joyce, im normally in your corner, Not with the clips at the Awards!
Normies who havent seen the movie Dont need clips. WHY??? They dont watch the frigging Oscars, Come On!!!!😂
To your point about this being a strong year for movies, I don’t necessarily agree but in a way I do. This is the weakest year for movies for me in ten or more years; I can’t say I’d ever watch any of the nominees again (except for Maestro, but I’m a music person and am an odd person out on that film.) But at the same time I don’t hate the majority of these movies, they just left me cold. So in a roundabout way that must say something about them?
Always have the Oscar in March, were used to it, I’m used to it. It’s my birthday month, too.🎉
26:57 👍
Exception to the rule, we will never see a small budgeted movie like The English Patient or Fargo compete against each other again.
The most telling takeaway from the anonymous ballots is that Poor Things got 7/13 ballots for Costume Design and Barbie only got 2/13. Barbie looks unlikely.
Television and film are plot heavy nowadays. But i think the pacing for a 10 hour to 24 hour television show is slower than a 3 hour movie which is out are quicker pace. Don’t get me wrong television is good and film is good.
I just love a subtle performance winning Best Acting awards, rarely done. I'd have loved Hopkins to win for The Remains of the Day or Christie winning for Away From Her, but i couldn't stand KOTFM so for Gladstone to win ; yes subtle but also (waiting for the backlash) lets give it to the Native and applaud ourselves for being so progressive and Woke.
If she wins, thats the Only reason. Of the nominees, her performance is 4 or 5, truly.
I'll call out this bluff. Let's talk about Emma doing ANOTHER overacting performance as a pretty/dumb woman. Was that a better performance that Lily? Even Ana de Armas could pull off the performance Emma Stone gave. Your delusion is why your heroine lost the SAG, you are just low on Lily rather than high on Emma
Just like the BAFTAs, I wouldn't even put Lily in the top 3 for the category. It's a good performance but not great, imo.
100%true. Lilly chances of winning is high. Her performance is 3rd place after emma and sandra.
jennifer lawrence is presenting tooo!!!
Lily Gladstone would win the Oscar because her performance speaks for itself. Yes it's a very internalized performance but Killers of the Flower Moon is a more accessible movie than Tár because it's thrilling, funny and dramatic and you empathize with her character.
@@Juliagoolia81 If you really think Lily doesn't have a lot to do then you're just not looking closely enough at what she's doing throughout the film. She has a lot to do, she even gets the FBI to investigate the murders. I think we would've appreciated some more character arcs for the sisters but there isn't any arc for because it's limited and there isn't much more material they can include and would've taken more time and made the film longer. If Lily wins it would be deserved she playing a sly person who is processing that the man she loves is a bad man. The only person who's winning an award is her so for you to think she's using her native status to win it's only because you don't understand or appreciate the hard truth of what the story is telling.
her performance is spectacular. there is a reason why she won so many critic awards over emma this season. when she won sag, it solidifies her to win the oscars. Oscar voters are fully aware of her native American heritage, and here is a rare opportunity for the oscars to make history, just like they made history for halle berry, and michelle yeoh, and soon lily gladstone with join them.
27 percent.
The tribute stuff is rlly cringe they should just bring back winners from last year!
The joy of intelligence Christopher is to just shut up. 😊
Love Cillian but Oppenheimer was just bland. Nolan did more Oscar "baiting " than Cooper. The truth is without Barbiheimer it never would have made the money it did . Cillian yes the movie was meh and IMO does not deserve best picture
Here’s my choices:
Best Picture: Oppenheimer
Best Director: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Best Actor in a leading role: Paul Giamatti in the holdovers
Best Actress in a leading role: Lily Gladstone in killers of the flower moon
Best Actor in a supporting role: Robert Downey Jr in Oppenheimer
Best Actress in a supporting role: DaVine Joy Randolph in The holdovers
Best original screenplay: Past lives
Best Adapted Screenplay: American fiction
Best Visual Effects: Godzilla minus one
I hate presenters and hosts at the Oscars. Just give me clips and winner speeches and go home for the night. Stop with the horrible jokes and celebrity worship. It's a terrible and neverending show every year but I feel like I need to watch because I'm so invested in the movies.
Why does Joyce always looked pissed and bothered and like she doesn’t want to be doing this?
Why are these always two hours long?? Like dangg
😂😂😂 .. I think that’s just how her face is but after revealing who their picks are if they were voting I think I see why she looks annoyed.. maybe their favs aren’t gonna win.
Also I think maybe they known each other a long time so they chat it up alot lol
Please respect our Queen
@@joshdevouge1294 I love her and them… first time discovering gold derby this year and I been anxiously following all the award ceremonies.
Joyce is convinced Christopher has one thousand burner accounts. 😂 We slugfest fans do exist in the real world.