I think its important to note that the international picture contender always seems to emerge later in the season; Decision to Leave, Bardo, and RRR all falling while All Quiet emerged later in the year, same with how Drive My Car built momentum all year. With Zone of Interest's experimental nature it will probably struggle to get wide support from the Academy, and Anatomy missing the submission could really hurt it. Also, there's no way Air is Amazon's priority above American Fiction at this point. Their priority is going to be the one coming out of TIFF with a bunch of buzz
Totally agree about American Fiction. That said, there’s been experimental/unique WW2 movies that have won best international films that have won in the past (see Son of Saul). The academy likes world war movies.
@@Sharpe1502 From what I've heard, Son of Saul isn't close to what ZoI is. ZoI has a lot of the markings of a film that's amazing but not Academy-friendly. It really depends on how it does with audiences come December
All Quiet emerged at TIFF, which already happened this year without any new contenders. The international feature winner almost always premieres at Cannes or TIFF (Drive My Car was at Cannes, Another Round at TIFF, Parasite at Cannes, etc).
@@purekinema Yeah, that's a good point. I guess my holdup is that All Quiet and Drive My Car weren't getting immediately predicted after their success at the festivals (especially All Quiet). If there's another international contender it probably was at one of those festivals, maybe Venice. If I had to pick two now that could surge, maybe Perfect Days and Society of the Snow? Perfect Days is all about the feels, and if Society of the Snow explodes on Netflix, you know Netflix will throw money at its campaign
@@devdanferguson7616 I don't see any way that either of those films get in Best Picture, although Perfect Days can definitely win international feature. All Quiet in comparison was at 9 for Best Picture in the Oscar Expert's September video last year.
As someone who has seen Saltburn, i still have it near the bottom of my 10 i think there's a chance of it going either way but i still feel confident right now
So many people kept arguing that Nomadland has lesser chances because it is slow and does not play well as a screener (like Brother Bro says about Past Lives here) and it swept. Past Lives won‘t sweep but a good film is a good film, in this case a Top 5 Picture contender.
Oscar retrospective on 2004 the year the return of the king swept! I’d be interesting to hear your takes on the rest of the nominees that year as honestly I’ve never known anything else that was up that year because of how much lord of the rings won (return of the king)
Regarding The Color Purple - It appears as though they've been doing quiet screenings as Chris Rosen from Goldderby mentioned in today's Oscar's Slugfest that he's talked to folks that have seen it and that they say it's good. Jeff Sneider also said a few weeks back that he spoke with someone who saw it ("with no skin in the game") and they thought it was "amazing".
I still have my chips on Oppenheimer not only because of the technical prowess, but because it was a bigger movie than Poor Things so far. If Poor Things wants to win, it needs to make a splash. I think this decade will be the decade of the big movie winning big. Nomadland and CODA was the last of the 2010's Best Picture trend, smaller movies sneaking in. This decade is in my opinion, Winner Takes It All. EEAAO has made a ton of money and it won 7 Oscars including Best Picture. If Poor Things wants to win best picture, it needs to prove why it should win not only with winning more than 3 oscars, but with making 200 Million dollars or more. I haven't seen Poor Things yet but it looks interesting. It could win, but it needs to prove itself to have half as much fame and power Oppenheimer did. But still, I don't know. It could win, this is just a theory.
I agree that "Poor Things" as the top of the heap right now. I think wins for Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costumes and Production Design are extremely possible, maybe even Makeup as well. It's unanimously revered among critics, it's getting great audience reaction at festivals, and even though it's very provocative to the point it's bordering on NC-17, I think the Academy is not above getting in a frisky mood if they like something well enough. Bottom line is, all it really needs is to make a good splash at the box office and I think it might tick all the boxes.
Saw an article on some of the first social media reactions to The Color Purple, they were all really good, there’s heart to it it seems like, and also one of the highlights keep raving about are the performances, mostly from the 3 leads but people are saying everyone is great in it, If this carries over to the general public then I think it’ll be enough for best picture even if it doesn’t have the best box office performance, because also 2 years ago, West Side Story had good reviews and it bombed, but that still made it to best picture
if I were give the Oscars Best Actress i will give Sandra Hüller because I am thinking might Sandra Hüller nomination/win at the Golden Globes 2024 for Motion Picture - Drama and Emma Stone for Musical/Comedy at GG2024
I’m starting to come around to Maestro for Picture but I think it’s more of a number 9 or 10 rather than a number 6, cause I can see it miss Screenplay at the end of the day in the vein of Mank, Ma Rainey, Being the Ricardos and The Whale, and I do worry about the films audience reception being kinda polarizing.
I completely, fully agree with Brother Bro's assessment on The Zone of Interest. I am still a believer in lone Director nominees not happening with full lineup of 10 (I think Another Round and Cold War would've gotten in with 10 nominees). Of course, Glazer could miss, but I can guarantee you that it would be seen as a massive snub. As out there as that movie is, it's not as divisive as you might expect, it polled well in Telluride and holds 4.1 on Letterboxd. And the central message of the movie is so powerful and important that I just think the respect is gonna be there. I get that Air could cause Elvis ptsd, but here's the thing: Elvis was Warner Bros, had Austin Butler and multiple techs locked, came in in a year with lot of fall fest movies flopping (not the case with this year) and it was undoubtable box office success, which you can't say about Air. Maybe I'm wrong but Air getting in over Spider-Verse would be so upsetting.
That is something I've been thinking over a while now. That now that there is a guarantied 10, movies getting in for director and not picture is less likely now.
10:30 i would like to point out that along with Sandra Huller, Greta Lee is one of the few actresses who has an agreement with her studio meaning she can still promote despite SAG AFRA strikes
my Golden Globes 2024 Actress Motion Picture Drama Sandra Hüller - Anatomy Of A Fall Lily Gladstone - Killers Of The Flower Moon Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Origin Greta Lee - Past Lives Natalie Portman - May December Musical/Comedy Emma Stone - Poor Things Margot Robbie - Barbie Fantasia - The Color Purple Halle Bailey - The Little Mermaid Jennifer Lawrence - No Hard Feelings
I think director's pretty much done with Nolan. I think this year is down to Adapted Screenplay and which movie gets it. Oppenheimer's almost a guarantee to win in score, sound, editing and cinematography too. But Poor Things is really strong for Costumes, Makeup, and Production. As much as I want Killers to be a strong contender for BP, I think it's the dark horse when going up against Oppenheimer and Poor Things.
I agree that it's Nolan's to lose at this point. The industry is really coming out in force for him and we usually have one nominal sweeper every year, and Nolan feels like that. He's got an overdue narrative, his film was a colossal success, the Academy's been gearing more towards splits and favouring the flashier technical achievements in Director, and it's a strong contender in major tech categories like Editing and Cinematography. I am sensing a split this year, and I feel like "Poor Things" might be where it differs, taking Picture/Actress/Adapted Screenplay/Production Design/Costumes while "Oppenheimer" takes Director/Supporting Actor/Editing/Cinematography. "Maestro" might get Actor and Makeup.
@@stephendavis6267 I personally still think Oppenheimer could win BP. It was a huge success and a technical marvel. Also the Academy is still trying to prove that it's "in touch", hence why Top Gun and Avatar were both nominated last year (though I personally believe that Top Gun was deserving of the nomination), and if that's the case, they might go the epic blockbuster biopic that is Oppenheimer instead of Poor Things. I haven't been able to see Poor Things yet, but I imagine that it plays to a more artsy audience and that's right up my alley. Like I said, director is pretty much Nolan, no one is going to dispute that. Poor Things seems like it will be stronger for Adapted Screenplay, but I think Killers of the Flower Moon can still grab it. It really depends if the academy wants to go for something more arthouse or not. As for Actress, I think Lily Gladstone is the only serious competition at this point. And since Emma already won hers, they might give Gladstone it, and if she does, it will be one hell of a performance to win for.
It literally fills me with so much dissent that All of Us Strangers could be this years Aftersun. Both of them are my Favorites-of-the-year and it’s so sad that the academy simply hates films that aren’t within a certain criteria despite being ADORED, ACCLAIMED, AND MEMORABLE!! They’d always go with movies like ‘Air’ or ‘American Fiction’ that are movies of the moment (and that moment is the time you leave the theater to the time you get home. Only good for a moment)
Why no Iron Claw? Jeremy Allen White is super hot rn, I could definitely see him getting in as well as original screenplay. Could be the post fall festivals best picture nominee
Napoleon should at least be in the top 15. Yes, the trailer and Joaquin don't look very good. But Dumb Money also looked bad and apparently people like it (even if it's not an Oscar contender). And there is too much potential with the package: Production design, sound, cinematography, editing, actor, director. Like you said, there are always some late year contenders. This definitely has more of a shot than Saltburn.
I’m looking out for that one too; it might be terrible, but like you said it at least deserves a mention (and the techs honestly do look really impressive)
I can't wait to see Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Maestro. I want that Past Lives nom. Also, not to be creepy, but is Cole my brother from another mother? Passionate about movies, favorite movies include Tree of Life and Arrival, and I was in a coding boot camp one time Lol 😆 (but I'm too stupid to code, I swear. 🥺 Too hard for my brain).
Across the Spiderverse is 100x the movie Air is. Color Purple too, shame the Oscars will reach for "ok" movies over the best animated movie of the past few years
Omg I know many people who love The Zone of Interest like me. And I think it‘s comparable to Tár. Key nominations but no wins except for International maybe.
I totally agree with Oscar Expert, Past Lives is totally getting in. I feel like , most people when predicting it is not getting in are fearful of others not talking about it as much as more recent releases, but it is still in everybody's minds and they actually would like to see it in. So I say that will happen with Academy voters, they will vote for Past Lives because is truly one of their favorites, fearing others won't but in the end it will gather enough support votes to get in. It may not be a top 3 anymore, but I don't see anything climbing enough to make it drop anywhere below 10.
Interesting. I have the same 12, only in different order. I have American Fiction at #5. Can't see that movie getting snubbed, knowing the track record at Tiff and how well it was received. Four Wedding and Funeral and Women Talking was only nominated for picture and screenplay. Wright, Brown, or Ross could get in for acting.
Whatever happens in the end of the day, if i dont see the 2 co-stars of Past Lives in the final oscars 5 i am gonna be pissed. My god what a chemistry, feelings dripping from their performances!
I’ve been saying Poor Things since the start of the year. So I’m glad my anticipation has been on point. That said, I think y’all should put American Fiction into the top 10. It’s extremely rare that a TIFF winner doesn’t get nominated. Plus, I think Jeffrey Wright is gonna get in. I’m also getting concerned about Anatomy of a Fall because I’m getting Decision to Leave vs All Quiet flashbacks. The Palm D’Or winners also don’t always go all the way to Oscars. I think Zone of Interest might get in.
I'm sorry, I don't see a world in which Air gets a BP nomination over Spiderverse and American Fiction. I just do not see that whatsoever. That movie might have done it if it came out in November or October but it came out in the spring, it's done.
yeah these guys are normally really well educated and informed with their choices but picking Air, in October, is a weird choice. Back in april, as a placeholder, sure. But now, pointless
My Predictions: Best Picture . Oppenheimer . Poor Things . Killers of the Flower Moon . The Holdovers . Barbie . Maestro . Past Lives . The Color Purple . Anatomy of a Fall . The Zone of Interest ( other possible picks) . Air . American Fiction . Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse . May December . All of Us Strangers
there’s this trend that’s been going on for at least a couple years now where a movie gets in off of just 3 below the line nominations, plus some other extra factor that gets the attention of voters. nightmare alley got costumes, production design and cinematography, and it was directed by guillermo del toro. avatar way of water got visual effects, production design and sound, and it was a sequel to an oscar friendly film (and it also helps that it made fuck you money at the box office lol). with that all said, this trend is what i’m gonna use to justify spiderverse getting into best picture, even on a weak day on nominations morning. it could get score. it could (even if unlikely) get visual effects. it could get sound. that’s 3 tech nominations, plus a guaranteed animated feature win. even without screenplay, i think across the spiderverse has a shot, like how beauty and the beast could get nominated in a line up of *5* with just auditory nominations
I agree on the list of The Oscars Expert.. and the dark horses I think might shock the noms in Picture are BlackBerry (IFC Films) Rustin (Netflix) All Of Us Strangers (Searchlight) American Fiction (MGM) Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (Sony) Perfect Days (Mubi/Neon)
Maetro's Letterboxd score and curve don't bother me. It's arguably the least Letterboxd-friendly film in your Top 17. It's easily the least Letterboxd-friendly of your Top 8. Despite its score among chronically online folks, the oldies in the Academy will eat Maestro up.
my Oscars 2024 Best Director predictions (October 2023) top 5 Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer Greta Gerwig - Barbie Martin Scorsese - Killers Of The Flower Moon Justine Triet - Anatomy Of A Fall next-in-line: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone Of Interest James Gunn - Guardians Of The Galaxy vol.3 Matthew Johnson - BlackBerry Alexander Payne - The Holdovers George C. Wolfe - Rustin Bradley Cooper - Maestro Celine Song - Past Lives Cord Jefferson - American Fiction Wim Wenders - Perfect Days Ava DuVernay - Origin
I think Killers will win best picture cause it has the diversity factor unlike Oppenheimer and Poor Things. Every best picture winner had diversity in front or behind the camera since Moonlight and Oscarssowhite.
I think I put Barbie a little higher on my lists- especially director- because a huge part of EEAAO's success was an incredible press run. That cast was everywhere putting on a show and building late season hype. Margot, Greta, and especially Ryan are powerhouses in front of the press. They've already shown that in the run up to release- I'm sure they can pull it off again in December and January. Especially if Warner Bros continues wide release into the year, which they would be silly not to do. Plus, like you said last year about the EEAAO cast- just imagine Team Barbie on all those stages throughout the season in Barbie pink. Especially Ryan in his wild outfits, after performing and winning an Oscar for I'm Just Ken. Like it or not, both EEAAO and CODA have shown us that the performance during awards season is just as crucial as the film itself. Nolan, Scorsese, and Lanthimos just cannot compete on that front. (Thought I do still think Lilly Gladstone or Emma Stone have a better shot that Robbie.)
Nah, I still think Barbie is this year’s Top Gun Maverick. The Academy is not going to want to award a toy commercial any of its top honors (even if that toy commercial had great moments, there was still clearly corporate meddling to keep it a toy commercial, and I say that as someone who in general likes Gerwig a lot and more than Nolan). I think director noms will most likely be Nolan, Lanthimos, Scorsese, Payne, and Song (I do think Anatomy falling out of Foreign hurts it and opens up a spot for Song to get back in). That said, I’d love for Gerwig to get in over Nolan, Scorsese, or Payne (at least, that’s how I feel having only seen the trailer for The Holdovers), but she does not deserve to get in over Song, and that is probably the slot that is actually up for grabs.
@@thrawncaedusl717song is not happening bro. She’s this years Sarah Polley. Where she’s predicted early in the season to get into director, but only ends up getting a screenplay nomination.
@@poett8875 she is nothing like Polley. Women Talking had a great script, but was not particularly cinematic. Compared to that, Past Lives was genuinely great cinema. Song could still miss, but Polley deserved to miss, while Song 100% deserves the nomination (from what I’ve seen so far, she’d be my choice to win).
Yeah it is continuing to boggle my mind that barbie is not number 1 or 2 on most people's lists... it has everything. It is monoculture. When they start campaigning it will become clear to everyone.
@@thrawncaedusl717 literally all of that is just your opinion. Not facts on what’s most likely to happen. This year is too packed for a subtle film to be a big contender. It’ll get picture, screenplay, and maybe original score.
AGREED on Napoleon having a bad trailer. I think they were tying to make the trailer appeal to younger audiences with the music choice, but….eh. KOTFM did it better.
I think Air is an easy #10 especially because it can fit safely into Original Screenplay and now that Supporting Actress is a fuck-fest Viola Davis could also be firmly in the mix.
Here is My Oscar Wins Predictions: Best Picture: Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Director: Christopher Nolan Best Actress: Lily Gladstone (KOTFM) Best Actor: Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer) Best Supporting Actress: Carey Mulligan (Maestro) Best Original Screenplay: Barbie Best Adapted Screenplay: Killers Of The Flower Moon Best Costume Design: Barbie Best Production Design: Barbie Best Makeup: Poor Things Best Cinematography: Oppenheimer Best Film Editing: Oppenheimer Best Sound: Oppenheimer Best Original Score: Oppenheimer Best Original Song: Barbie (What Was I Made For) Best Animated Feature: Spider Man Across The Spider-Verse Best International Film: Anatomy Of The Fall
Avatar could've been 9 or 10 last year, i think ToS or WT was ahead of it, lots of precedent for VFX winner to miss BP nom, less so a Screenplay winner or Dir nominee
Good list - except I don't see Air making the list. I hear zero buzz about it, and people I know that saw it say it was "fine",. So that 10 spot I'd lean Zone, American Fiction, or Saltburn - depending on how audiences respond in the next few months. Really outside shot Napoleon (so-so reviews from France, but it looks like terrific tech and Joaquin Phoenix is a terrific actor even if it's not a nom worthy performance)
My predictions (alphabetical order) Best Picture 1.Anatomy of a Fall 2.Barbie 3.The Color Purple 4.Ferrari 5.The Holdovers 6.Killers of the Flower Moon 7.Maestro 8.Oppenheimer 9.Past Lives 10.Poor Things
Following the oscar race used to be one of my top coping mechanisms but last year I started losing interest and now I just feel zero investment whatsoever...I wish I was dead
Is there room for two international movies? Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall? I think Anatomy of a Fall has more of a chance to not get in. It's a mystery/thriller and those movies don't really get in.
I truly think more of the Academy voters like the idea of choosing “prestige/out-there” choices than like blockbusters. I think being a blockbuster is actually a disadvantage.
@@singstreetcar5881 honestly, what the hell is winning this year? KOTF would be ehh (typical Scorsese fest), Poor Things would be edgy, Zone of interest would be awesome, but its not even in top 10.
My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 27.10.23): 10. American Fiction 9. Air 8. Bob Marley: One Love 7. Barbie 6. Anatomy of a Fall 5. Past Lives 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Poor Things 2. The Holdovers 1. Oppenheimer Well I finally caved and started acknowledging American Fiction. At first I took out Air, but as time went by I started losing faith in The Color Purple and took that out. Still my clear 11# and the one I'll bring back in if somebody finally decided to announce what's the deal with the Bob Marley movie. Took KOTFM down a couple spots, but not for lack of faith in it but for increased faith in other movies. Do to my strong believe Maestro and The Zone of Interest are headed for a goose-egg, the only other movie I consider an actual possibility for a nomination is May December. That move feels to me like it's either gonna get everything or nothing, 0 nominations or 4 nominations above the line, nothing inbetween.
I have no idea what A24 is doing with their campaign, or lack thereof, for The Zone of Interest. Coming into October, it has no trailer and it doesn't even have a poster. Like, what?
They don’t need to; the film is not a commercial or populist play. They’re depending on the people who see it and love it REALLY loving it and pushing it hard. Not sure why they’d need a trailer/poster for that when they have hype already.
They seem to be playing it careful with ZoI. Considering how cold and experimental it is, even if it's a masterpiece there's a chance the Academy just doesn't touch it
@@CRM-114 im serious. It was not only universally praised by both critics and audiences, but it was a major box office success. People still think and talk about it to this day. It is rich with depth and nuance in regards to its narrative, themes, and characters while also being visually one of the most beautiful, vibrant, and ambitious looking films of the year, possibly of the current decade as of right now. There are other animated movies and shows that have been practicing the blend between 2d and 3d animation to varying degrees and to great and commendable effect, and as much of them teeter on the edge, IMO none of them are to the same level of the richness and detail that is in ATSV. It has a lot going for it and for a while it has been on multiple best of lists with the potential to be put back in or added to new ones by the end of this year and the start of next year. Just cause its animated doesnt mean it cant be nominated for best picture. Only 3 films before it have actually gotten nominated in the category before (Beauty and the Beast, Up, and Toy Story 3) so its not so far behind the academy that they'll never do it again, theres always potential for another animated film to break the mold again and all roads point to ATSV. So dont "hahahaha good one" me.
Thoughts on Killers of the Flower Moon: 1) Lily is a supporting actress and should not win an Oscar for playing dead for half the movie. 2) This movie was too slow and too long. 3) All of this crap about how Ernest love Molly is a load of crap since he poisoned her and helped kill her whole family. The only good part of this movie was the creative ending on talking about what happened after the movie. I hope this movie wins nothing.
It's gonna be a typical Oscars year, isn't? A pheomenal animated movie is going to be snubbed, because The Academy doesn't respect animation & Christopher Nolan can't for the life of him win an Oscar, no matter how good the films he makes is
My take on the Zone of Interest: I think, given that its UK's submissions, and they nominated plenty of UK films before, its likely to get into picture, because its also backed by A24, and purely by the rave reviews, its likely that we can have another Tár situation, where just purely based on the quality of filmmaking, uniqueness, rave reviews, it gets 5~6 noms. BUT, also considering that IN 2008, A holocaust film got OVER Dark Knight, and then they nominated plenty WW2 movies (2019 even had 2, and so did 2017), ITS very likely that the subject matter could play big role, despite experimentality.
Can people stop calling it experimental? Except for one returning sequence that is shot in like nightmode or sth, there is nothing experimental about it. It is actually pretty straightforward.
Am I the only one thinking Zimmer could get in the category for best original score with The creator? It’s a beautiful score. But in the end I think the win is between Göransson and Pemberton
I’m just saying hypothetically if they went for something crazy for idfk what reason why, not saying it will happen. I think it’s best shot is in screenplay top campain, second or even third priority or not.
@@devdanferguson7616 Um they have the Color Purple listed on their list of potential nominees and that film has not only not been released yet, and rumors are that it might get pushed back. They also have Air on their list. I like that film, wasn’t over the moon for it, but that was released a month before Monica and by Amazon, who is not known for being big players in the history of the Oscars. If that movie has a chance, so can Monica.
@@Emmathelady There are literally no rumors of TCP getting pushed back. WB confirmed their intent to release it this year when they moved Dune. Also with the SAG strike potentially wrapping soon, it's definitely getting released this year. They've also been doing quiet screenings as Chris Rosen from Goldderby mentioned in today's Oscar's Slugfest -he says he's talked to folks that have seen it and that they say its good. Jeff Sneider also said a few weeks back that he spoke with someone who saw it and thought it was "amazing".
@@Emmathelady Its a big-budget movie by WB, adapting a beloved musical. Not hard to see why it can do well at the Oscars. Also, its about making PREDICTIONS, not picking the best films that have had wide releases so far
In an amazing year of actual best pictures. My best picture is one that is great in many ways. 90s to early 2000s had a great run. I respect all types of movies but enough of the indies winning best picture. If poor things wins im officially done w the oscars. And im a movie lover
Past lives is a twitter thing. Its only film twitter that likes this film and talks about it. Just because the colour purple musical was good on stage that doesn't mean it will translate well on film.
![Kumamoto Masters Japan 2024 | Gregoria Mariska Tunjung (INA) [5] vs. Akane Yamaguchi (JPN) [2] | F](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/EIjZybhsWqA/mqdefault.jpg)
we need another Oscar retrospective 😢
I second this!! I suggest the 2005 Oscars Ceremony featuring Million Dollar Baby’s surprise win
I third this. Any year would be great.
Color purple and out of Africa, but the Oscar expert is learning to code........😅
Pleaseeee
Need some retrospectives on some older Oscars too
My brother it is October 5th
Squid Games
Hey fam!
Can someone explain please?
@@seankoontz4235they had September in video title earlier
I think its important to note that the international picture contender always seems to emerge later in the season; Decision to Leave, Bardo, and RRR all falling while All Quiet emerged later in the year, same with how Drive My Car built momentum all year. With Zone of Interest's experimental nature it will probably struggle to get wide support from the Academy, and Anatomy missing the submission could really hurt it.
Also, there's no way Air is Amazon's priority above American Fiction at this point. Their priority is going to be the one coming out of TIFF with a bunch of buzz
Totally agree about American Fiction. That said, there’s been experimental/unique WW2 movies that have won best international films that have won in the past (see Son of Saul). The academy likes world war movies.
@@Sharpe1502 From what I've heard, Son of Saul isn't close to what ZoI is. ZoI has a lot of the markings of a film that's amazing but not Academy-friendly. It really depends on how it does with audiences come December
All Quiet emerged at TIFF, which already happened this year without any new contenders. The international feature winner almost always premieres at Cannes or TIFF (Drive My Car was at Cannes, Another Round at TIFF, Parasite at Cannes, etc).
@@purekinema Yeah, that's a good point. I guess my holdup is that All Quiet and Drive My Car weren't getting immediately predicted after their success at the festivals (especially All Quiet). If there's another international contender it probably was at one of those festivals, maybe Venice. If I had to pick two now that could surge, maybe Perfect Days and Society of the Snow? Perfect Days is all about the feels, and if Society of the Snow explodes on Netflix, you know Netflix will throw money at its campaign
@@devdanferguson7616 I don't see any way that either of those films get in Best Picture, although Perfect Days can definitely win international feature. All Quiet in comparison was at 9 for Best Picture in the Oscar Expert's September video last year.
As someone who has seen Saltburn, i still have it near the bottom of my 10 i think there's a chance of it going either way but i still feel confident right now
Rooting for Past Lives.
So many people kept arguing that Nomadland has lesser chances because it is slow and does not play well as a screener (like Brother Bro says about Past Lives here) and it swept. Past Lives won‘t sweep but a good film is a good film, in this case a Top 5 Picture contender.
Yeah, for me it’s
•Same top 3 in the same order
•4. The Holdovers
•5. Past Lives
Oscar retrospective on 2004 the year the return of the king swept! I’d be interesting to hear your takes on the rest of the nominees that year as honestly I’ve never known anything else that was up that year because of how much lord of the rings won (return of the king)
Regarding The Color Purple - It appears as though they've been doing quiet screenings as Chris Rosen from Goldderby mentioned in today's Oscar's Slugfest that he's talked to folks that have seen it and that they say it's good. Jeff Sneider also said a few weeks back that he spoke with someone who saw it ("with no skin in the game") and they thought it was "amazing".
I think the zone of interest will get into picture
I still have my chips on Oppenheimer not only because of the technical prowess, but because it was a bigger movie than Poor Things so far. If Poor Things wants to win, it needs to make a splash. I think this decade will be the decade of the big movie winning big. Nomadland and CODA was the last of the 2010's Best Picture trend, smaller movies sneaking in. This decade is in my opinion, Winner Takes It All. EEAAO has made a ton of money and it won 7 Oscars including Best Picture. If Poor Things wants to win best picture, it needs to prove why it should win not only with winning more than 3 oscars, but with making 200 Million dollars or more. I haven't seen Poor Things yet but it looks interesting. It could win, but it needs to prove itself to have half as much fame and power Oppenheimer did. But still, I don't know. It could win, this is just a theory.
😂you got all that based on 1 movie winning, delusional.
EEAAO is an independent film. And made 130+ million dollars, amazing, ofc, but not like blockbuster like.
Oppenheimer, to me at least, will sweep most of the categories come Oscar night.
Totally agree realistically the bigger movie has a higher chance of being chosen
It won the Golden Lion and already doesnt have to prove shit
I'm REALLY looking forward to Killers of the Flower Moon coming out this month! Will definitely watch it the moment it's out in theaters!
I agree that "Poor Things" as the top of the heap right now. I think wins for Picture, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Costumes and Production Design are extremely possible, maybe even Makeup as well. It's unanimously revered among critics, it's getting great audience reaction at festivals, and even though it's very provocative to the point it's bordering on NC-17, I think the Academy is not above getting in a frisky mood if they like something well enough.
Bottom line is, all it really needs is to make a good splash at the box office and I think it might tick all the boxes.
Production design and costume is going to barbie
@@singstreetcar5881 you clearly haven't read the reviews.
@@nafischowdhury7375 u clearly don't know quality
@@singstreetcar5881 yeah sure..
Maestro will win makeup
I'm predicting Oppenheimer to be the first Best Picture winner, to also win cinematography since Birdman!
Saw an article on some of the first social media reactions to The Color Purple, they were all really good, there’s heart to it it seems like, and also one of the highlights keep raving about are the performances, mostly from the 3 leads but people are saying everyone is great in it, If this carries over to the general public then I think it’ll be enough for best picture even if it doesn’t have the best box office performance, because also 2 years ago, West Side Story had good reviews and it bombed, but that still made it to best picture
if I were give the Oscars Best Actress i will give Sandra Hüller because I am thinking might Sandra Hüller nomination/win at the Golden Globes 2024 for Motion Picture - Drama and Emma Stone for Musical/Comedy at GG2024
past lives is definitely gonna get nominated for best screenplay, best picture i think maybe
I’m starting to come around to Maestro for Picture but I think it’s more of a number 9 or 10 rather than a number 6, cause I can see it miss Screenplay at the end of the day in the vein of Mank, Ma Rainey, Being the Ricardos and The Whale, and I do worry about the films audience reception being kinda polarizing.
Plus, everyone thinks Cooper is trying too hard to win an Oscar
I completely, fully agree with Brother Bro's assessment on The Zone of Interest. I am still a believer in lone Director nominees not happening with full lineup of 10 (I think Another Round and Cold War would've gotten in with 10 nominees). Of course, Glazer could miss, but I can guarantee you that it would be seen as a massive snub. As out there as that movie is, it's not as divisive as you might expect, it polled well in Telluride and holds 4.1 on Letterboxd. And the central message of the movie is so powerful and important that I just think the respect is gonna be there.
I get that Air could cause Elvis ptsd, but here's the thing: Elvis was Warner Bros, had Austin Butler and multiple techs locked, came in in a year with lot of fall fest movies flopping (not the case with this year) and it was undoubtable box office success, which you can't say about Air. Maybe I'm wrong but Air getting in over Spider-Verse would be so upsetting.
That is something I've been thinking over a while now. That now that there is a guarantied 10, movies getting in for director and not picture is less likely now.
If air gets nominated for best picture after all of these good movies come out, I’m gonna lose it
seeing Air over May December, Saltburn and AOUS is making me SICK
10:30 i would like to point out that along with Sandra Huller, Greta Lee is one of the few actresses who has an agreement with her studio meaning she can still promote despite SAG AFRA strikes
Though hopefully the strike will be over before Oscar nominations.
Helps to get nominated to be a Netflix movie. Does not help when it comes to winning best picture.
Netflix will never win BP.
You guys should do an Oscar video where you pick who should’ve won out of those not nominated and just a favorite films of all time list as well
my Golden Globes 2024 Actress Motion Picture
Drama
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy Of A Fall
Lily Gladstone - Killers Of The Flower Moon
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Origin
Greta Lee - Past Lives
Natalie Portman - May December
Musical/Comedy
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Margot Robbie - Barbie
Fantasia - The Color Purple
Halle Bailey - The Little Mermaid
Jennifer Lawrence - No Hard Feelings
I think director's pretty much done with Nolan. I think this year is down to Adapted Screenplay and which movie gets it. Oppenheimer's almost a guarantee to win in score, sound, editing and cinematography too. But Poor Things is really strong for Costumes, Makeup, and Production. As much as I want Killers to be a strong contender for BP, I think it's the dark horse when going up against Oppenheimer and Poor Things.
I agree that it's Nolan's to lose at this point. The industry is really coming out in force for him and we usually have one nominal sweeper every year, and Nolan feels like that. He's got an overdue narrative, his film was a colossal success, the Academy's been gearing more towards splits and favouring the flashier technical achievements in Director, and it's a strong contender in major tech categories like Editing and Cinematography.
I am sensing a split this year, and I feel like "Poor Things" might be where it differs, taking Picture/Actress/Adapted Screenplay/Production Design/Costumes while "Oppenheimer" takes Director/Supporting Actor/Editing/Cinematography. "Maestro" might get Actor and Makeup.
Overdue narative? It will be his only second nomination for Best Director.
@@brunom7334 But he's been nominated several more times in writing, and arguably he was snubbed for nominations for "The Dark Knight" and "Inception."
BARBIE guy, it's gonna take more than y'all think. Costume, make-up and production design are all possible.
@@stephendavis6267 I personally still think Oppenheimer could win BP. It was a huge success and a technical marvel. Also the Academy is still trying to prove that it's "in touch", hence why Top Gun and Avatar were both nominated last year (though I personally believe that Top Gun was deserving of the nomination), and if that's the case, they might go the epic blockbuster biopic that is Oppenheimer instead of Poor Things. I haven't been able to see Poor Things yet, but I imagine that it plays to a more artsy audience and that's right up my alley.
Like I said, director is pretty much Nolan, no one is going to dispute that. Poor Things seems like it will be stronger for Adapted Screenplay, but I think Killers of the Flower Moon can still grab it. It really depends if the academy wants to go for something more arthouse or not. As for Actress, I think Lily Gladstone is the only serious competition at this point. And since Emma already won hers, they might give Gladstone it, and if she does, it will be one hell of a performance to win for.
A new Oscar prediction video is more important than the actual Oscars I can’t explain it
THIS but also why
It literally fills me with so much dissent that All of Us Strangers could be this years Aftersun. Both of them are my Favorites-of-the-year and it’s so sad that the academy simply hates films that aren’t within a certain criteria despite being ADORED, ACCLAIMED, AND MEMORABLE!! They’d always go with movies like ‘Air’ or ‘American Fiction’ that are movies of the moment (and that moment is the time you leave the theater to the time you get home. Only good for a moment)
Why no Iron Claw? Jeremy Allen White is super hot rn, I could definitely see him getting in as well as original screenplay. Could be the post fall festivals best picture nominee
Napoleon should at least be in the top 15. Yes, the trailer and Joaquin don't look very good. But Dumb Money also looked bad and apparently people like it (even if it's not an Oscar contender). And there is too much potential with the package: Production design, sound, cinematography, editing, actor, director. Like you said, there are always some late year contenders. This definitely has more of a shot than Saltburn.
I’m looking out for that one too; it might be terrible, but like you said it at least deserves a mention (and the techs honestly do look really impressive)
I can't wait to see Poor Things, The Holdovers, and Maestro. I want that Past Lives nom. Also, not to be creepy, but is Cole my brother from another mother? Passionate about movies, favorite movies include Tree of Life and Arrival, and I was in a coding boot camp one time Lol 😆 (but I'm too stupid to code, I swear. 🥺 Too hard for my brain).
Across the Spiderverse is 100x the movie Air is. Color Purple too, shame the Oscars will reach for "ok" movies over the best animated movie of the past few years
Omg I know many people who love The Zone of Interest like me. And I think it‘s comparable to Tár. Key nominations but no wins except for International maybe.
Im so pissed that dune 2 got pushed back because this could have been one of the most competitive oscars yet with Villeneuve vs Nolan.
Not to mention scorsese too like when are you gonna see so many legendary directors head to head like that but hollywood sucks so thats too bad.
that'd would be boring then.
I would put American Fiction over Air but yeah
Same. Air has been forgotten
I totally agree with Oscar Expert, Past Lives is totally getting in. I feel like , most people when predicting it is not getting in are fearful of others not talking about it as much as more recent releases, but it is still in everybody's minds and they actually would like to see it in. So I say that will happen with Academy voters, they will vote for Past Lives because is truly one of their favorites, fearing others won't but in the end it will gather enough support votes to get in.
It may not be a top 3 anymore, but I don't see anything climbing enough to make it drop anywhere below 10.
Interesting. I have the same 12, only in different order. I have American Fiction at #5. Can't see that movie getting snubbed, knowing the track record at Tiff and how well it was received. Four Wedding and Funeral and Women Talking was only nominated for picture and screenplay. Wright, Brown, or Ross could get in for acting.
Air’s not happening
Whatever happens in the end of the day, if i dont see the 2 co-stars of Past Lives in the final oscars 5 i am gonna be pissed. My god what a chemistry, feelings dripping from their performances!
new oscar expert video yessssssssssss
I’ve been saying Poor Things since the start of the year. So I’m glad my anticipation has been on point.
That said, I think y’all should put American Fiction into the top 10. It’s extremely rare that a TIFF winner doesn’t get nominated. Plus, I think Jeffrey Wright is gonna get in.
I’m also getting concerned about Anatomy of a Fall because I’m getting Decision to Leave vs All Quiet flashbacks. The Palm D’Or winners also don’t always go all the way to Oscars. I think Zone of Interest might get in.
I'm sorry, I don't see a world in which Air gets a BP nomination over Spiderverse and American Fiction. I just do not see that whatsoever. That movie might have done it if it came out in November or October but it came out in the spring, it's done.
yeah these guys are normally really well educated and informed with their choices but picking Air, in October, is a weird choice. Back in april, as a placeholder, sure. But now, pointless
My Predictions:
Best Picture
. Oppenheimer
. Poor Things
. Killers of the Flower Moon
. The Holdovers
. Barbie
. Maestro
. Past Lives
. The Color Purple
. Anatomy of a Fall
. The Zone of Interest
( other possible picks)
. Air
. American Fiction
. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
. May December
. All of Us Strangers
I wonder if and how Napoleon and Iron Claw will fare with Oscars since no one has been talking about those yet
The best thing about your videos is the cat and how peaceful it sits there getting petted.
Barbie/oscar night theme is PINK!!!!!!!
there’s this trend that’s been going on for at least a couple years now where a movie gets in off of just 3 below the line nominations, plus some other extra factor that gets the attention of voters. nightmare alley got costumes, production design and cinematography, and it was directed by guillermo del toro. avatar way of water got visual effects, production design and sound, and it was a sequel to an oscar friendly film (and it also helps that it made fuck you money at the box office lol). with that all said, this trend is what i’m gonna use to justify spiderverse getting into best picture, even on a weak day on nominations morning. it could get score. it could (even if unlikely) get visual effects. it could get sound. that’s 3 tech nominations, plus a guaranteed animated feature win. even without screenplay, i think across the spiderverse has a shot, like how beauty and the beast could get nominated in a line up of *5* with just auditory nominations
I agree on the list of The Oscars Expert..
and the dark horses I think might shock the noms in Picture are
BlackBerry (IFC Films)
Rustin (Netflix)
All Of Us Strangers (Searchlight)
American Fiction (MGM)
Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse (Sony)
Perfect Days (Mubi/Neon)
Maetro's Letterboxd score and curve don't bother me. It's arguably the least Letterboxd-friendly film in your Top 17. It's easily the least Letterboxd-friendly of your Top 8. Despite its score among chronically online folks, the oldies in the Academy will eat Maestro up.
I still don‘t get how Letterboxd scores are relevant for Awards predictions. Are Oscar voters Letterboxd members? I dont think so
my Oscars 2024 Best Director predictions (October 2023)
top 5
Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Greta Gerwig - Barbie
Martin Scorsese - Killers Of The Flower Moon
Justine Triet - Anatomy Of A Fall
next-in-line:
Jonathan Glazer - The Zone Of Interest
James Gunn - Guardians Of The Galaxy vol.3
Matthew Johnson - BlackBerry
Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
George C. Wolfe - Rustin
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Celine Song - Past Lives
Cord Jefferson - American Fiction
Wim Wenders - Perfect Days
Ava DuVernay - Origin
I think Killers will win best picture cause it has the diversity factor unlike Oppenheimer and Poor Things. Every best picture winner had diversity in front or behind the camera since Moonlight and Oscarssowhite.
I think I put Barbie a little higher on my lists- especially director- because a huge part of EEAAO's success was an incredible press run. That cast was everywhere putting on a show and building late season hype. Margot, Greta, and especially Ryan are powerhouses in front of the press. They've already shown that in the run up to release- I'm sure they can pull it off again in December and January. Especially if Warner Bros continues wide release into the year, which they would be silly not to do. Plus, like you said last year about the EEAAO cast- just imagine Team Barbie on all those stages throughout the season in Barbie pink. Especially Ryan in his wild outfits, after performing and winning an Oscar for I'm Just Ken. Like it or not, both EEAAO and CODA have shown us that the performance during awards season is just as crucial as the film itself. Nolan, Scorsese, and Lanthimos just cannot compete on that front. (Thought I do still think Lilly Gladstone or Emma Stone have a better shot that Robbie.)
Nah, I still think Barbie is this year’s Top Gun Maverick. The Academy is not going to want to award a toy commercial any of its top honors (even if that toy commercial had great moments, there was still clearly corporate meddling to keep it a toy commercial, and I say that as someone who in general likes Gerwig a lot and more than Nolan).
I think director noms will most likely be Nolan, Lanthimos, Scorsese, Payne, and Song (I do think Anatomy falling out of Foreign hurts it and opens up a spot for Song to get back in). That said, I’d love for Gerwig to get in over Nolan, Scorsese, or Payne (at least, that’s how I feel having only seen the trailer for The Holdovers), but she does not deserve to get in over Song, and that is probably the slot that is actually up for grabs.
@@thrawncaedusl717song is not happening bro. She’s this years Sarah Polley. Where she’s predicted early in the season to get into director, but only ends up getting a screenplay nomination.
@@poett8875 she is nothing like Polley. Women Talking had a great script, but was not particularly cinematic. Compared to that, Past Lives was genuinely great cinema. Song could still miss, but Polley deserved to miss, while Song 100% deserves the nomination (from what I’ve seen so far, she’d be my choice to win).
Yeah it is continuing to boggle my mind that barbie is not number 1 or 2 on most people's lists... it has everything. It is monoculture. When they start campaigning it will become clear to everyone.
@@thrawncaedusl717 literally all of that is just your opinion. Not facts on what’s most likely to happen. This year is too packed for a subtle film to be a big contender. It’ll get picture, screenplay, and maybe original score.
AGREED on Napoleon having a bad trailer. I think they were tying to make the trailer appeal to younger audiences with the music choice, but….eh. KOTFM did it better.
Gotta say that trailer for The Iron Claw is making me think it’s got a chance. That story is Oscar worthy
I think Air is an easy #10 especially because it can fit safely into Original Screenplay and now that Supporting Actress is a fuck-fest Viola Davis could also be firmly in the mix.
Here is My Oscar Wins Predictions:
Best Picture:
Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Director:
Christopher Nolan
Best Actress:
Lily Gladstone (KOTFM)
Best Actor:
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Best Supporting Actor:
Robert Downey Jr (Oppenheimer)
Best Supporting Actress:
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Best Original Screenplay:
Barbie
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Killers Of The Flower Moon
Best Costume Design:
Barbie
Best Production Design:
Barbie
Best Makeup:
Poor Things
Best Cinematography:
Oppenheimer
Best Film Editing:
Oppenheimer
Best Sound:
Oppenheimer
Best Original Score:
Oppenheimer
Best Original Song:
Barbie (What Was I Made For)
Best Animated Feature:
Spider Man Across The Spider-Verse
Best International Film:
Anatomy Of The Fall
Anatomy didn’t make France’s shortlist so it’s not winning international
Oppenheimer winning 7 oscars and losing best picture is wayyy wayyyy too crazy.
@kidwithaphonecamera Best picture and best actor haven't matched since 2010. So if Oppenheimer wins Murphy will likely loose.
There’s no way Murphy will lose. His performance did better and phenomenal! And also got the narrative too.
Damn…
I’m really rooting for Oppenheimer though.
Air just had over 20 of those screenings cancelled. That means it’s not getting Picture imo.
Remember when Brother Bro said Past Lives would be in his top 3? Is it still? Hmm....
I think Napoleon at least needs a mention.
Avatar could've been 9 or 10 last year, i think ToS or WT was ahead of it, lots of precedent for VFX winner to miss BP nom, less so a Screenplay winner or Dir nominee
I caught 'Poor Things' with the odd 17 and 15. Bet in May first part and in September the second part
Exchange 10 and 11, and you'll have the most likely BP nominees this year.
Good list - except I don't see Air making the list. I hear zero buzz about it, and people I know that saw it say it was "fine",. So that 10 spot I'd lean Zone, American Fiction, or Saltburn - depending on how audiences respond in the next few months. Really outside shot Napoleon (so-so reviews from France, but it looks like terrific tech and Joaquin Phoenix is a terrific actor even if it's not a nom worthy performance)
Also kinda surprised Sofia Cappola’s A24 “Priscilla” is not on the list or Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon”?
My predictions (alphabetical order)
Best Picture
1.Anatomy of a Fall
2.Barbie
3.The Color Purple
4.Ferrari
5.The Holdovers
6.Killers of the Flower Moon
7.Maestro
8.Oppenheimer
9.Past Lives
10.Poor Things
lmao no
@@YelirNitramno what???
@@TheClubOrtizto the likability of the win. Barbie is never placed over Oppenheimer. Poor things at 10? It's the frontrunner at the moment.
@@ChrolliForeverplease learn to read, I clearly put that the list is alphabetical order
@@TheClubOrtizWhy would you do that tho?
theres room for one and ONLY one Matt Damon true story movie in the best picture lineup
Following the oscar race used to be one of my top coping mechanisms but last year I started losing interest and now I just feel zero investment whatsoever...I wish I was dead
Is there room for two international movies? Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall? I think Anatomy of a Fall has more of a chance to not get in. It's a mystery/thriller and those movies don't really get in.
The Oscars would love an Oppenheimer win. Everyone loves Nolan, it is popular and technically powerful. Perfect mix!
Oppenheimer is the gravity of the year. Will win in technical category but will lose best picture
I truly think more of the Academy voters like the idea of choosing “prestige/out-there” choices than like blockbusters. I think being a blockbuster is actually a disadvantage.
Unfortunately the movie is a snooze
@@singstreetcar5881 honestly, what the hell is winning this year? KOTF would be ehh (typical Scorsese fest), Poor Things would be edgy, Zone of interest would be awesome, but its not even in top 10.
Lily Gladstone is NOT winning best actress in a leading role. She will get nominated tho
Globes has 6 nominees this year??
My current GoldDerby predictions (as of 27.10.23):
10. American Fiction
9. Air
8. Bob Marley: One Love
7. Barbie
6. Anatomy of a Fall
5. Past Lives
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Poor Things
2. The Holdovers
1. Oppenheimer
Well I finally caved and started acknowledging American Fiction. At first I took out Air, but as time went by I started losing faith in The Color Purple and took that out. Still my clear 11# and the one I'll bring back in if somebody finally decided to announce what's the deal with the Bob Marley movie. Took KOTFM down a couple spots, but not for lack of faith in it but for increased faith in other movies. Do to my strong believe Maestro and The Zone of Interest are headed for a goose-egg, the only other movie I consider an actual possibility for a nomination is May December. That move feels to me like it's either gonna get everything or nothing, 0 nominations or 4 nominations above the line, nothing inbetween.
You guys don’t think there’s a possibility for The Iron Claw as a late-year contender?
IVE BEEN WAITING
Past Lives really impacted me emotionally I would love to see that movie get in.
All of Us Strangers is (maybe) too low. It got a freaking 98 on Metacritic. But we’ll see
91 actually
Did Mexico submit Cassandro for international
No, Totem was the election
I have no idea what A24 is doing with their campaign, or lack thereof, for The Zone of Interest. Coming into October, it has no trailer and it doesn't even have a poster. Like, what?
They don’t need to; the film is not a commercial or populist play. They’re depending on the people who see it and love it REALLY loving it and pushing it hard. Not sure why they’d need a trailer/poster for that when they have hype already.
They seem to be playing it careful with ZoI. Considering how cold and experimental it is, even if it's a masterpiece there's a chance the Academy just doesn't touch it
I'd put American Fiction in there instead of Air
Im holding out for hope that Across the Spider-Verse gets slotted into the Best Picture category
I really hope so!!!
@@Cinemahguy here's hoping🤞🤞
@@CRM-114 im serious. It was not only universally praised by both critics and audiences, but it was a major box office success. People still think and talk about it to this day. It is rich with depth and nuance in regards to its narrative, themes, and characters while also being visually one of the most beautiful, vibrant, and ambitious looking films of the year, possibly of the current decade as of right now. There are other animated movies and shows that have been practicing the blend between 2d and 3d animation to varying degrees and to great and commendable effect, and as much of them teeter on the edge, IMO none of them are to the same level of the richness and detail that is in ATSV. It has a lot going for it and for a while it has been on multiple best of lists with the potential to be put back in or added to new ones by the end of this year and the start of next year. Just cause its animated doesnt mean it cant be nominated for best picture. Only 3 films before it have actually gotten nominated in the category before (Beauty and the Beast, Up, and Toy Story 3) so its not so far behind the academy that they'll never do it again, theres always potential for another animated film to break the mold again and all roads point to ATSV. So dont "hahahaha good one" me.
Yeah, I think it has a better chance in Best Picture. Don’t see why it’s not in the top 10
Thoughts on Killers of the Flower Moon: 1) Lily is a supporting actress and should not win an Oscar for playing dead for half the movie. 2) This movie was too slow and too long. 3) All of this crap about how Ernest love Molly is a load of crap since he poisoned her and helped kill her whole family. The only good part of this movie was the creative ending on talking about what happened after the movie. I hope this movie wins nothing.
Napoleon is my what if but I don’t think it has a chance
It's gonna be a typical Oscars year, isn't? A pheomenal animated movie is going to be snubbed, because The Academy doesn't respect animation & Christopher Nolan can't for the life of him win an Oscar, no matter how good the films he makes is
What about Napoleon?
My take on the Zone of Interest:
I think, given that its UK's submissions, and they nominated plenty of UK films before, its likely to get into picture, because its also backed by A24, and purely by the rave reviews, its likely that we can have another Tár situation, where just purely based on the quality of filmmaking, uniqueness, rave reviews, it gets 5~6 noms.
BUT, also considering that IN 2008, A holocaust film got OVER Dark Knight, and then they nominated plenty WW2 movies (2019 even had 2, and so did 2017), ITS very likely that the subject matter could play big role, despite experimentality.
Can people stop calling it experimental? Except for one returning sequence that is shot in like nightmode or sth, there is nothing experimental about it. It is actually pretty straightforward.
@@pb.j.1753 haven't read your comment, BUT NO SPOILERS I HAVENT SEEN IT, PEOPLE CALLED IT EXPERIEMNTAL
@@kidwithaphonecameraNo spoiler: It is not experimental
Am I the only one thinking Zimmer could get in the category for best original score with The creator? It’s a beautiful score. But in the end I think the win is between Göransson and Pemberton
Yes
Don’t think zimmer will even get nominated; most the people I saw it with were so underwhelmed they didn’t believe it was zimmer
@@tiki1750 its like thinking Zimmer would be nominated for Madagascar or Shark Tale
I’m going down in flames with Spiderverse 😂
I think BlackBerry (IFC Films) might sneak on the Picture noms.. a dark horse should to watch out for
This year I really need Spider-Verse nominated for Best Picture
Napoleon will/hopefully be a contender. Past Lives was a massive disappointment and I don't think Air has a chance.
What if Netflix throw a curveball and push Hit Man as their main campaign?
Not an awards movie
I’m just saying hypothetically if they went for something crazy for idfk what reason why, not saying it will happen. I think it’s best shot is in screenplay top campain, second or even third priority or not.
Still no Monica?! Damn! What does that film have to do?!
Not be released by IFC in May, for starters...
@@devdanferguson7616
Um they have the Color Purple listed on their list of potential nominees and that film has not only not been released yet, and rumors are that it might get pushed back. They also have Air on their list. I like that film, wasn’t over the moon for it, but that was released a month before Monica and by Amazon, who is not known for being big players in the history of the Oscars. If that movie has a chance, so can Monica.
@@Emmathelady There are literally no rumors of TCP getting pushed back. WB confirmed their intent to release it this year when they moved Dune. Also with the SAG strike potentially wrapping soon, it's definitely getting released this year. They've also been doing quiet screenings as Chris Rosen from Goldderby mentioned in today's Oscar's Slugfest -he says he's talked to folks that have seen it and that they say its good. Jeff Sneider also said a few weeks back that he spoke with someone who saw it and thought it was "amazing".
@@ParkerJones1976
Well I will judge it when I see it. As for Air?
@@Emmathelady Its a big-budget movie by WB, adapting a beloved musical. Not hard to see why it can do well at the Oscars. Also, its about making PREDICTIONS, not picking the best films that have had wide releases so far
Barbie made over a billion dollars at the box office. Continue to underestimate it at your own risk.
In an amazing year of actual best pictures. My best picture is one that is great in many ways. 90s to early 2000s had a great run. I respect all types of movies but enough of the indies winning best picture. If poor things wins im officially done w the oscars. And im a movie lover
Past lives is a twitter thing. Its only film twitter that likes this film and talks about it.
Just because the colour purple musical was good on stage that doesn't mean it will translate well on film.
I’m sorry, WHAT movie saved theaters?!?!?
The Iron Claw...
You guys should do Golden Globes predictions!!!
Guys, what is your workout routine? Results show!
Where is Priscilla in the mix?