Why You Will Never Have Zoom Calls With Mars | Answers With Joe
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- Опубликовано: 30 сен 2024
- Mars is far away. So far, it takes light anywhere from 3 to 22 minutes to travel there. This means the way we communicate is going to be very, very different - and will have long-term effects we can't really know right now.
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"long answer: nnnnnnooooo" is the best worst joke you've made yet
Well I haven't yet watched the video and I just commented that basically yes.........
In reality we can communicate there's just a massive delay
It's not ideal but.... In the future in theory we could entangle particles and somehow measure them to move messages....
In theory.......
And I mean we are heading the in the right direction... Quantum computers aren't there yet but the potential exists....
@@donotlike4anonymus594 ??????????
@@dazza2350 what.....
*best
@@dazza2350 lmao what
Earth: send wall of text...
20 mins later....
Mars: k
Earth: *_Triggered_*
Mars: _You can no longer send messages to earth._ _Click here to find out more_
Mars: *panic*
This is how Genocide happens.
They say it'll take between 15-30 minutes... (Very rough estimate... But yeah most say 20) and keep in mind it's a 2 way issue it'll take the message the time to travel to mars and as much time to travel back....
Not to mention we have to account for the planet' s rotation and position for both earth and mars
(Well I mean I guess that depends on how we send the message... Lasers would be great but require a lot of accuracy... More traditional ways of communication like radio signals etc will spread out more so u know....)
so Mars will be populated by American teenagers.
Obviously 40mins, not 20mins
4mbps per second is literally faster than my internet
Faster than downloading a game through the EA Origin engine
@@yeetghostrat too bad I got battlefield 5 on sale(It took a literl week for gta to download)
@oH well,lord! I make 3 when I'm alone
That reminds me of 10 years ago....... 10 years ago!!!!!
@@tylerindersmith5480 well that reminds me of today so
For anyone that grew up in the 90's this isn't so bad.
lol
But you grew up a long, long time ago
Grew up in the 80s, so I got this!
You wouldn't survive in my universe Palpatine.... 💀
I remember those days. There were much cooler toys back then. 😂
I don't even know any one on Mars so I am not worried.
Check your Earthling privilege
Yet.
And you never will.
Even less to worry about😉
We’re gonna get there some day but we’re not gonna pull off living there.
We couldn’t even get Biosphere to work.
On Earth.
Jeff Byrnes on the contrary, they colonised mars back in the 50s... they have constant contact with earth, but radio waves and jet propulsion are a joke to keep people distracted... can you guess how they travel and communicate?
Heehee :)
7:32 when the internet speed is better on Mars than in your hometown, feels bad.
what haha where is that?
Same bro, Mars has better internet speed than me (cries in a corner)
Fr
Can we just take a moment and appreciate that we are seriously talking about the nuances of communication with humans on another planet. The fact that we even have this problem to deal with is exciting.
Facts!
I feel like we’re living in the jetsons or something technology has gone absolutely wild in the last two decades or so
And it's only going to get wilder, faster.
We're going to surpass the Jetsons in my lifetime.
We don't have this problem, we're making it a problem
I have a right to go wherever I want without wearing a stupid helmet. My body, my rights. *gasp* *blurgle* *arghhhh*
good one
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣👍
😂😂😂😂
Oh man I needed this joke thank you so much
That is actually why I want to go to Mars. Thousands will byte into red sand but imagine those few who survive . In Germany we ask ourselves what is harder, my head or the wall? I have been talking to those who survived. Imagine they all did - that is why I could talk to them in the first place. Same will happen on Mars.
"To kill two birds with one stone, I shall build a giant trebuchet to launch myself to Mars. Thus, I will never have to use a Zoom call AND I may get a job with SpaceX!"
-Sun Tzu, the art of War
(probably)
haha!
LMFAO
This is why in The Expance Martians almost immediately distanced themselves from culturally from earth.
“Expanse” ☝🏽
I need to get caught up on that show.
@@alexsalinasvega3765 bloody autocomplete
@@joescott how could YOU be missing out ?
@@joescott The character named Holden acts exactly towards the alien tech as in the first season. And acts exactly unlike he had this dramatic ecstatic experience of having a civilization download all their knowledge into his brain. You know, the thing they spent three seasons to get to. People who desperately needed to like it, apparently can ignore little things... like the plot. Because #edgyscifi
As a Texan (Howdy, Joe! From the RGV here!) in my own personal experience 15 years ago I moved to England from Texas & when I go back it feels completely alien to me now... also- people move on quickly- it’s quite heartbreaking but when you are the one to leave your native land, they get over you pretty quickly... I’ve got family who I haven’t seen for YEARS that I used to be close to... then after a while you move on, too. And that’s here on earth!
I love the idea of moving abroad. Sadly I'm a high valued target for England to want me. Though I feel like someone has to sweep and clean the Martian Facilities, they'll want me... Right?
Lmaooo, the long answer: nooo oooo ooo
That was good aha
"Getting a letter from New York to London in colonial times would take weeks or months... or sometimes wouldn't get there at all."
Wow, like sending letters from Australia to the London today, then?
Use email, no matter how bad the internet it will always not take weeks or months
@@MenacingPerson Great tip. Who had even heard of e-mail, right??
@@ankitmathur5113 yeah ikr
Maan... I just can't wait for the 5th season of The Expanse!
I just started watching it today, and then I caught up on Joe and saw this video! It's great!
Dude i loved the series.... but really only the latter 3rd of season one, season 2, 3, and 4 at 1.25x speed.
5 was so boring- so boring.
Same 😔😔
Schrodinger's cat just became Jackson's glove.
If the cat don't shit you must acquit.
If the cat had a twin that was of the opposite gender and no one checked the gender. Twin1 goes to Mars. Twin2 stays here. No poison or death required! Check the gender of your cat at any time. Do you know if the other person has observed the gender of their cat? No information can be communicated.
@@kellyjackson7889 PERFECT!!!! LOL
So the Mars orbiter bandwidth.. Is typically better than the connection I get on a bad day.. For a single satellite though.
@Rupert Bruce its 2020 though so you will have to ask your cat what gender it chooses lol
"...no natives to wipe out." *That we KNOW OF.
right? what if they're just good at hiding
Yeah sadly it is an all to real possibility that we find out their had been microbes surviving on Mars eking out an existence on their dead world and then we fing kill them with a combination of all our Earth germs and particularly due to us stealing their water.
There is after all interesting atmospheric disequilibrium phenomenon on Mars like produced by life on Earth a characteristic only shared with Venus plus with a much lower degree of confidence Titan and interestingly Neptune(but not Jupiter, Saturn or Uranus as far as we know) Given the ice shell worlds of interest lack atmospheres this is every generally considered possibly inhabited worlds. Neptune at least has the life candidate moon Triton constantly erupting material into its atmosphere which could account for that signal if Triton is inhabited (plus given billions of years and the existence of Neptune's "bottomless" mostly water ocean, with stuff like ammonia methane and hydrogen sulfide mixed in it, it is possible for secondary colonization if life as we know it formed on Triton. ) Welp got distracted again point is I'm worried Musks rush to Mars is going to sabotage our chances of looking for and if it exists studying and preserving any Martian microbes.
If it’s a microbe then it’s had billions of years to evolve. Screw them. They had their chance. Evolve or die.
@@doubleheadedeagle6769 Yeah because life on Earth immediately evolved to complexity under sustained fairly stable conditions... >_>
Mars's hospitable eon lasted maybe a billion years at best while life on Earth took more than a billion years to evolve oxygen based metabolism and then roughly two bursts of multicellular organisms separated by well over a billion years (closer to 1.5 billion years of separation) between the Francevilian biota 2.1 Ga to Ediacaran biota(635-542)
www.manospondylus.com/2020/03/solved-and-unsolved-fossil-enigmas-part_13.html
Evolution of life on Earth especially on long timescales largely comes down to chance consequences. For instance the disappearance of the alluded Francevillian biota while poorly constrained does fairly closely fit with the timing of the Vredefort impact structure which is the largest surviving impact structure we can positively identify which impacted into the outlet of a river delta into a shallow bay like environment surrounding the impact structure that environment ironically only was preserved because of the impact burying it deep underground. Either way this impact basin indicates the impactor was significantly bigger than the Chicxulub impact
For reference the Chicxulub impact is the third largest impact preserved on Earth. Sudbury was the second largest which some researchers tracing elemental anomalies in the structure suggest it was probably a comet unlike the other two but I don't believe this has ever been confirmed) Fun fact if adding up all the known impacts and extrapolating current micrometeorite rates back in time(a bit hard given that we now know these rates are episodic rising and waning from celestial events within our solar system) but under those criteria these big 3 impacts account for 90% of the identifiable material to strike the Earth. Point is this was a BIG impact less than a hundred million years after the diversification of the Francevillian biota it would have had significant effects potentially wiping out a 1.5 billion year head start of multicellular life on Earth.
The fossil record says we should treat every life form as precious as you never know who or what will rise to the top and diversify.
@@Dragrath1 Tell you what, honestly I don’t give a shit personally, but if we find an earth like planet out there some day , do you really think anyone will care about the potential in a few microbes? I bet they won’t.
The folded paper analogy was used in Event Horizon a decade and a half earlier. Show some respect man.
that movie also came to mind. I found out it was a horror movie the hard way.
he,s young.
Joe has to be older than I am [35].
And even there they did this already being in space.
Joe just wanted an opportunity to point out that the astronauts in the movie were talking about worm holes after they were on their way. You'd think that would be topic #1 in training back on earth.
Nah. Just send robots and such. We can live on giant spinning space stations.
Mars sucks. Robots got the Mars exploration covered.
Nah not really. An Astronaut with a shovel and a microscope can do more in one day than all rovers have done in 30 years
Dusty cold radioactive shithole.
I've also heard that Martians are dicks.
@@N0lan83 and what is it that needs to be done so quickly?
@@pegleg2959 Answer fundamental questions about the origins of life and the roots of our existence.
Joe: "Wormholes"
Me: "Stargate!"
Joe: "[like] in Interstellar"
Me: cries in Goa'uld...
Glad I’m not the only one!
joe needs to go watch stargate xD
And before also, in "Event Horizon"
Kree!
@@KaraKobold it would be good for him
I am a father of 7, with 4 grandchildren and growing. I have discussed with my children several times that given the chance I would take a one way ticket to Mars. To be one of the first, a true explorer. What surprises me is that they don’t understand why I would give up what I have. And I don’t understand why they can’t understand me.
...you seem to be very keen on having sex. Mind you that a roundtrip to Mars means having to abstain from it for at least a couple of years. In other words, if you insist on it, I'm afraid I can't understand you either.
@Nathan Zhang ...MY mind? I'm not the one with numerous children
Difference between your version of an 'explorer' and a scientist conducting theoretical work? Nothing, scientists often also dive into the unknown and discovery awaits before them. Why not just be happy with that?
How about because it would make you selfish to leave a family behind.
Idgaf
Great video. I hope we can make Zoom calls *in 5 billion years* when the Earth and Mars are about to collide.
All the inner planets would be engulfed by the sun by that point
Mars: Hey, Earth... have you noticed the Sun going supernova?
Earth: [is gone]
@@Rain593 No it’ll be in 7 billioN
The sun doesn’t have enough mass to go supernova. It will become a red giant and constantly lose mass as it expands, eventually resulting in a planetary nebula.
@@unocoltrane2804 It doesn't even matter if it expands to earths orbit, the suns energy output will constantly increase and ina few 100 million years it'll be too hot for live on earth.
Joe, watch The Expanse on Amazon! LITERALLY, Earth vs Mars vs the Asteroid colonists, ... vs terrorists, ..... vs aliens.
@jody dymun
all of them!!
Hi Joe! Quantum Information PhD here. The problem with entanglement not providing faster than light communication is not that we can't act on one of the two particles without breaking the entanglement. Actually, that's pretty easy, and is routinely done in experiments! The issue is much more fundamental: there is no way to "force" a locally measured particle to be found in (say) the "up" state. Entanglement only tells you that the two outcomes are correlated (e.g. they are opposite) but provides no way to choose _which_ outcome you get...
My connection here is literally 5 Mbps, I beat the mars one but not by a whole lot..
mine is 2Mbps
Mine is hopefully HOPEFULLY that is when the network signal is strong around 1.5mbps
Jokes on you, mine is 3.5Mbps
I used to be on 3Mbps, now I am enjoying the giddying highs of 10Mbps.
Just speed checked mine. I am 100% cellular. 4G-LTE. Whole house runs on cellular data. TVs. Internet. Security cameras. Etc...
100+ Mbps D. L.
10 + Mbps U. L.
All hail Verizon 4G LTE 😂
And 5G is supposed to be faster? WoW!
Over our marriage, I moved with my ex-wife no less than five times in order for her to pursue her career. From the very start of our relationship I asked her “given that any move to Mars would be one-way, due to not only the expense but the changes wrought by the lower gravity making it impossible to return to Earth, would you be willing to emigrate to Mars with me?” Her answer was always a resounding “no”. That really should have been a red flag to me...
Because who wouldn't want to live on a planet which has a habitat that is completely under human control, doesn't have war, famine, trivial conflict and the like? Jeez, I hope you dumped her four hours and thirty minutes ago. You can definitely do better, mister.
@@whatsupbudbud Yes, but also it is a barren rock with a deadly atmosphere... I mean, who wants this when you can live, lets say on Hawaii?!
@Enclave Soldier Haha exactly. Mars is essentially in a state of perma-famine. I sympathise with OP if his wife was always making him move and yet would never move for him, but moving cities is hardly comparable to changing planets. Try setting up home first in the relative paradise of Antarctica, and see how that goes
Considering she's the one who kept the two of you changing addresses for the sake of HER career, I sincerely hope YOU got to keep the last house.
It is you both who are oversimplifying it, buddies. The biggest risk to any human is another human, not the environment which is pretty stable both on Earth and on Mars. Living here without other humans would be a breeze but we're all here aren't we? Mars will have only the best of the best, so very marginal human risk at worst. Other concerns you mentioned are negligible as they can be resolved by engineering. That being said, I do realize that most people are chickens regarding novel things until the masses are into it, so can't blame you for, well, being human. Sure glad you both won't be the ones going to Mars to fuck it up, lol.
2:09 Leif Erikson, please. Let's remember this truly impressive explorer's name correctly, shall we? ;)
Speaking of Interstellar, I just noticed this the other day. Remember when they went to the giant wave planet with 1.6 times earth gravity?...they exited the planet's gravity well with an SSTO. And at the beginning they used a 3 stage rocket...ya see the problem here?
They used an advance plot drive to achieve this. It's manufactured by the same company that provides protagonists with the incredibly useful and durable plot armour as well.
@@totalermist plot technology is the most advanced technology known to men.
@@totalermist aah I see.
"Because movie"
He also falls into a black hole and survives... They did their best lol
"Your home is littered with NASA spinoff technology" I feel attacked...
Except Velcro. That was clearly a Vulcan invention.
@@davidanderson_surrey_bc Nah. Velcro is a Vogon device. A sort of byproduct of their intergalactic highway construction project for a hyperspace express route.
Or maybe it's Ravenous Bugblatter Beast dung. Or both.
@@davidanderson_surrey_bc Man I need more seasons of Enterprice...
The best Schrödinger's cat explanation I've ever heard, no cat necessary.
"Only with no natives to wipe out." No natives...that we know of!!! [insert dramatic music]
ba dum tss
Ain't that so very true!! We don't even know if there's life yet microbabrel or not.
@RUclips, please enable landscape oriented comments. Due to my cracked screen, I can't tell for sure if @Steven Feagley said "microbabrel" or not.
@@stevenfeagley3227 *microbabeivel
200 years ago: "why you will never send and receive messages from england without waiting half a year"
Except that England and America are on the same planet and no known laws of nature needed to be broken to change this.
@@totalermist it's true but you kinda got wooshed
This. They'll eventually find a way to do the impossible. With the exponential rate of technological improvement over the past 300 years, we will figure it out pretty damn soon.
@@peterj-s6421 I totally agree with you, I would say about the next 30 years or so we will have that technology
@@peterj-s6421 Yes, we will do the impossible with technology: dividing-by-zero generators, 2+2=22 machines, true=false logic circuits and arriving-before-you-push-the-start-button travel the last one also known as FTL/faster than light (remember that light speed is infinite from the perspective of the traveler, it only takes time from the perspective of the onlooker - time is relative)
"turns people into werewolves"
Moon: turning people into furries since ancient times.
That's the greatest "long answer" I've ever heard.
Should have used "Short answer, yes with an if. Long answer, no with a but ."
Strongbad agrees.
Thank yoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooou.
As an IT professional, you seem to have a very good understanding of the many complications involving data-transfer between planets. A lot of people don't seem to fully grasp how complicated these communications truly are. Long-time viewer, keep up the good work Joe!
"A cultural isolation we havent seen in a really long time" I guess he hasn't looked at the differences between Red and Blue Americans lately huh
Hahahaha, true. :D
To be fair, the divide is more Red and Blue Americans against the crazy little sect that claims to be Blue but is actually communists that didn't wanna join the actual communist party.
@@EksaStelmere well you also have the facist's that pretend to be republican, both of these are inevitable with a 2 party system (created by first past the post, the worst voting system imaginable)
@@ckkitty I'll contend the worst voting system imaginable is either the "Fidel Castro always wins" one they used to use in Cuba or the "The people elect their community leaders who elect their provincial leaders who elect their country's leaders but it doesn't matter because everyone still follows the orders of the Communist Party Secretary anyway so it's all just theatre" one they use in China. Direct democracy also sucks, but it's still better than literally every "democratic" commie state.
@@EksaStelmere not really a voting system by that point
"friendly natives" - I think you said "post-apocalyptic survivors" wrong
Well, you're not wrong. Sadly.
Joe: ...between .5 and 4 Mbps
Me: That's actually.. impressive?
Yeah, I used 1Mbps for years. I have 100 now, but .5 to 4 isn't that bad.
Thats my home internet wifi speed . It can stream netflix!
.03 is what I'm at😂 yet I watch RUclips at 480p
@@gtPacheko I had 100 Mbps 10 years ago...
yeah, weirdly it´s actually >10x faster than the modem sounds accompanying it would give... like. 0.03 Mbps (28.8 kbaud.) ...
Honestly I don't see the light lag to be much of an issue between a Mars Colony and Earth. After all, many societies have lived with longer communications delays and still stayed (relatively) cohesive. I mean to use America for example, it was the 'United States' for at least decades before functionally instant communications was in wide spread use. Even in my country, the UK, which is tiny in comparison to the USA had to deal with days or weeks of communication delay in just getting post, and it too has had a relatively stable existence for at least hundreds of years.
Suffice it to say, basically any other country can boast the same. So a delay of less than an hour doesn't look like the back breaking straw to me.
What would be the straw though, you've already mentioned. The simple fact that living on Mars will be so different to living here on Earth would almost certainly create the sorts of social pressures that would cause Martians to eventually want some form of independence.
the united states never fully settled its land mass until the last century or so. Also its no where near cohesive. Some areas attempted to leave the union every few years. Have you ever stood A midwesterner, a new yorker, A texan and a Michigander in a line? it would be five minutes before a bloody brawl broke out. We don't even speak the same dialect in any of these places.
edit:typo
@@jamesbonn2394 That's why I added the 'relatively' there, and why I only said the United States was the 'United' States 'a few decades' before functionally instant communications (aka telephones) were in widespread use. My point really was that the USA was a country, with a centralised government before instant communications were easy.
If you want to, though, a lot of individual states are larger than some countries, and those too existed, more or less cohesively before instant communications were possible.
I agree. Plus 44 minutes is not that long to wait for a text message reply, I have lots of friends that I write with about once a day, sometimes they reply next day.
But we should consider that *we* on Earth now have instantaneous communication with each other as well as internet access while they don't take part in that with us. I think that's kind of what Joe might be referring to. But still: Just be aware that your Martian friends are a bit more 90s. I don't think it's going to be a huge deal, especially given that I think once they've established a proper settlement that is more permanent than say the ISS in terms of dependancies etc., they will have a strong motivation to come up with some form of internet access, creating their own network and content and probably agreeing on what data they want to sync from Earths servers. Also they might take a lot of entertainment with them which admittedly is a few years old by the time they consume it, but except for live events and live streams, most of our entertainment doesn't happen in real-time, either.
Who calls anyone anymore anyway?
Cultural divide with Mars? Starting to sound like the Expanse ;-))
That's actually one of the biggest limits of expanding into space you can't really have a united space empire because of the huge distances in space and the bottleneck of light speed, Isaac Arthur goes into depth about this in his video series.
@@WokeandProud Vinge also went into that with his book Deepness in the Sky
@@WokeandProud I do not WANT a united space empire, that would be very, very bad. Space demands some degree of minarchy, which I *really* appreciate.
@@WokeandProud Absolutely, I'm a big fan of SFIA ;-)
@@polychoron Well you'd be happy to know we'll never have one even if we break the light speed limit because the sheer distances in space will still make maintaining a united system all but impossible unless they're really clustered together.
And then there's the mad scientists and trying to send emojis through the hell portals....
In one of his stories Vernor Vinge touched on a possible solution: AI-based predictive buffering. A pair of AIs at each end of the Earth to Mars channel are designed to learn the data request patterns and to get material to the other end before it is needed. We do something like this right now for many hierarchical storage solutions relying just on locality of reference. It should be possible to do a lot better once the common patterns of usage are understood. Combine that with really, really big buffers at each end and Mars would have near-instantaneous access to most Earth material it needs. (Zoom performance still would be rather annoying, though.)
And like everybody else, I can't believe he didn't even mention The Expanse.
That thing gets weird pretty fast, when it goes interstellar... In reality Mars would depend on Earth at first for a good while perhaps a century or more, and they would be very weak and small to even think about armed conflict with mother Earth. The logical thing is to pacifically allow them to develop their own sovereign "country". Not sure how well would that works but it would be centuries in the future. According to the UN nothing in space can be claimed by any nation, but this is unrealistic.
The asteroid belt might be a source of resources, but its more valuable right there in space rather than on Earth. I think some vanity stuff like gold could be brought, which would collapse its price on the markets, so... kinda pointless.
@@freeculture In the series the Martians are an Earth colony for over 200 years before they gain independence.
Everybody always seems to miss the Expanse. It's the most realistic. deep, evocative, relevant to our near term colonization of the solar system series ever made. The factions featured, with twists, represent all of us today. With awesome characters and story! You can watch first 4 seasons free on Amazon Prime, a little gift from Jeff Bezos - who is a huge Star Trek fan. Seasons 5 and 6 coming.
@@freeculture To give credit, Mars in the Expanse was Earth's pet until the Epstein Drive.
@@freeculture ...in general, claiming that Mars' colonies will some day go independent, seems analogous to Antarctica scientists going independent too. Unless Mars is "terraformed", Martian colonies will be dependent as hell to Earth. And accomplishing such feat (terraforming a whole planet), will probably take THOUSANDS of years - if it will ever get done at all. In other words, no worries, Martian colonies' rebellions is the last thing that we should be concerned about.
When he said what the long answer was he literally had me crying
Well, when I woke up this morning, I didn't expect to be screaming "NO COMMUNICATION THEORUM" at my phone as hard as I could...
Did Google reply with _'Did you mean "NO COMMUNICATION THEOREM"?'_ (in the same volume)?
Regarding the folding paper / punching hole thing, before Interstellar it was also in Event Horizon! Dunno if that's where it comes from originally, I imagine some science dude used this metaphor to explain to us plebs a long time ago how wormholes work
1876: “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication.” - William Orton, President of Western Union.
1876: “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” - Sir William Preece, chief engineer, British Post Office.
1889: “Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.” - Thomas Edison.
1903: “The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty - a fad.” - President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.
1921: “The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial value. Who would pay for a message sent to no one in particular?” - Associates of David Sarnoff responding to the latter’s call for investment in the radio.
1926: “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility.” - Lee DeForest, “Father of Radio” and a pioneer in the development of sound-on-film recording used for motion pictures. He had over 180 patents.
1932: “There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable. It would mean that the atom would have to be shattered at will.” - Albert Einstein.
1936: “A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth’s atmosphere.” - New York Times.
1946: “Television won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” - Darryl Zanuck, film producer, co-founder of 20th Century Fox.
1949: “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers of the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and perhaps weigh one and a half tons.” - Popular Mechanics.
1957: “I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” - Editor of Prentice Hall business books.
1959: “The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” IBM told the eventual founders of Xerox.
1961: “There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television or radio service inside the United States.” - T.A.M. Craven, Federal Communications Commission (FCC) commissioner.
1977: “There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.” - Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp.
1981: “No one will need more than 637KB of memory for a personal computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.” - Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft.
1981: “Cellular phones will absolutely not replace local wire systems.” - Marty Cooper, inventor.
1989: “We will never make a 32-bit operating system.” - Bill Gates, co-founder and chairman of Microsoft.
1992: “The idea of a personal communicator in every pocket is a “pipe dream driven by greed.” - Andy Grove, then CEO of Intel.
1995: “I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” - Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet.
2003: “The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful.” - Steve Jobs, in Rolling Stone
2007: “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share.” - Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO.
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.” - Attributed to Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents, 1899.
Lesson learned: don’t confuse trends with facts
As Paul Krugman pointed out in his 1998 piece blissfully titled Why most economists’ predictions are wrong:
“The growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in “Metcalfe’s law” - which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of participants - becomes apparent: most people have nothing to say to each other! By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet’s impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine’s.”
It’s my favorite prediction because as result he contradicts himself.
Predictions are a risky business. Even more so if they’re about the immediate future. Once shown to be wrong, the words return to their origin like a boomerang, and the quotes go on to forever haunt the speaker.
source: www.freecodecamp.org/news/worst-tech-predictions-of-the-past-100-years-c18654211375/
Law of nature is a bit harder to fix as the issues you listed here.
I seriously wonder how long the list of failed predictions is that go the other way (e.g. flying cars, cities on the moons, meals in pill-form, etc.)...
Now put the predictions of the people who were over-optimistic to be fair. Those that talked about flying cars and colonies in space before year 2000. Pessimists tend to be more accurate in my opinion.
Which is exactly the reason why I believe that people will somehow invent FTL technoloy, both for travel and communication.
We have assumed things to be impossible so often just to be reminded that we don't know enough to predict if something really is not doable.
My favourite quote from Arthur C. Clarke: "When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong."
Followed by my second favourite from him: "If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run - and often in the short one - the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative."
@@MrInvinciblewarrior but the thing is, that we don't know a lot of things about how or why natural laws work the way they do.
And even then, some are more suggestions than law... For example the Second law of thermodynamics is true, but we observed that groups of particles will sometimes - by pure chance - will start to swing in synchronicity, decreasing the entropy of a closed system. So, if the second law of thermodynamics can be violated, maybe others can be as well. Maybe the speed of light doesn't apply to space-time itself, which is the hope behind the warp drive, or wormholes really can exist, so we can just shorten the trip (or line of communication) instead of going the long way, which wouldn't exactly be superluminal exchange of information, so it wouldn't violate causality.
Or maybe we can do some crazy stuff with dark matter, if we figure out a way to use it.
Thing is, whenever we thought we had figured it all out and that we were at the end of physics, we discovered another layer beyond which enabled us to do things previously unimaginable. And I refuse to believe that this time it should be any different. Why should the measly 21st century be the pinacle of technological advancement? Just to assume that seems a bit lot of hubris.
This is just like the scenario from The Expanse.
"The Deep Space Network…is not, as I first thought when I heard the name, a system of wireless routers floating throughout the Solar System."
🤔
Well, maybe it should be: at some point we should have communication nodes orbiting all the planets and at the Trojan Points for each of them, to relay data from place to place even if the Sun gets in the way.
Five minutes into the first mars mission: No longer will we Martians stick ourselves under the boots of the Earthers!
Mission control: Artemis 1 please chill the **** out you haven't even left the stratosphere yet. 😑
*Stolen from reddit*
Mars will have a very long dependency on Earth. Food production (veggies and fish) will be possibly I guess (aquaponics), but what else ?
@@autohmae R&D, human resources, data.
@@xponen And human reproduction *wink* *wink* :-)
It would be hard to bootstrap the entire supply chain and production of nearly everything that is necessary for survival and what we take for granted here on Earth. As long as you need spare parts for...well everything from Earth to not die it's not a colony, more like a subsidized research outpost. But there's more stuff that is very hard to kickstart from zero. Medicine, fuel...educated specialists...Until such place can become self sufficient it's all dependent on Earth for everything. Like our South Pole research bases. They aren't going to become self sufficient and create new independent Antarctica civilization anytime soon. In fact Antarctica is a dream vacation resort compared to Mars. So unfortunately settling on Mars is going to be a chore lasting maybe thousands of years, every generation making only tiny, patient steps towards that goal.
@@TheWoodenshark the first problem we have: we hardly know what is in the Mars surface. You can only be self sufficient if you have resources in the ground you can use as raw materials to bootstrap any kind of production. Ground is all you have on Mars. Their are no animals or plants you can use as raw materials. For example on Earth we started with using animal furs for clothes.
It will be "The Expanse" played out in real time. If/when there is Mars Colonization, they will be a different people in 50-100 years time and they certainly would want their own autonomy.
That's why we can't let them have nukes.
Currently the idea is that Mars will be independent from the start. Since a private company (SpaceX) will colonize it, not a nation, and nobody thinks the existing governments are any good. Then of course the US can find an excuse to "export democracy", and Mars won't be able do defend itself. Especially when for the first 50-100 years it will need supplies from Earth to survive.
@@andrasbiro3007 Space Force was founded for a reason. It's the ones with the biggest guns who are calling the shots and there's little a group of colonists can do if the Pentagon decides to drop a few squads of literal space marines on their butts...
Honestly this is why we need to get a system in place for peacefully letting space colonies ease into having their own autonomy and eventually becoming their own nations. Because if not, it will be the revolutionary war all over again, and people won't have learned from history whatsoever. The issues that led to that war were due to distance and communication delay leading to wanting your own autonomy from a big government that was culturally so different from your own, and couldn't understand you from that far across the ocean, to the point where it was better to govern yourself, all issues that will play out again in space.
@@totalermist Jeah totally. Like the squads that where dropped on the research stations on Antarctica. Someones gotta show them whos BOSS. MURICA
I think we're going to have trouble just surviving the next 10 years on earth, let alone having a viable colony on mars.
If you listen to silly Greta Thunbger, then yes you would believe that.
@@robertallan6373 Oh I don't mean climate change, I mean all the other awesome ways we've thought of to kill ourselves. Add in the Great Reset, lockdowns, the decimation of the economy, potential wars.. climate change should get in line!
2020 is just a year of global stupidity. As with all stupid things and fashion they come to an end. Even flared Blue Jeans :-)
@@dnoordink Na, its all good, its something we all needed, to wake ourselves up to how lazy we have been, all this crap will make us stronger, its all part of evolution.
@@michaeldawson6309 True, but just wait, flared jeans will return.
when you asked "how much of a time delay?" my internet froze and i waited for so long thinking it was a editing joke....
..nope!
Be real people in comparison here on earth:
Worst case scenario it’s texting with a friend who lives on the other side of planet (12 hours delay).
Best case scenario it’s texting a friend who rarely checks his phone
I text with someone in russia who literally lives in a city which is forwarded 12 hours on the clock
Being in a different time zone isn't delay. You can still set up a call with no noticeable delay, you just have to be a bit more careful about the time
Esquilax you absolute genius, didd’t think of that
Irving Chies me as well with someone in australia 9 hours difference, just texting once a day not expecting a reply instantly
As an Australian I am appalled at the way you pronounced Canberra, it's pronounced canbruh
i love how zoom has replaced skype in the public slang
it’s crazy how fast zoom replaced skype
@@aphrog649 skype was never that good
Skype did work over modem links.
Dunne if Zoom would
US government: “Going to mars is too expensive”
Scientists: “We just found oil on mars”
US government literally the next day: “Take the damn funding NASA we go big or we go home!”
Scientists: “Crap I think they took it seriously”
Scientists: Mars has WMD
I mean they found rare earth on the moon
hahaha! Nice. When I heard about 16 Psyche asteroid, people were saying how much it would ruin our precious economy. Even if we could mine it people are worried about the economy? SMH.
@@michaeldrummond6793 "We've created teleporters that can provide food and essential resources to everyone on the planet!"
"BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY!!?!?!?!?!"
With a new administration coming in now, I wouldn't be surprised if Biden and congress cancel the Artemis program. Just like pretty much every new administration does. They want to go in a new direction.
I think cancelling wouldn't make any good impression, and therefore will certainly be avoided (but apart from that logic, I really don't know how ambitious or backwards Biden is regarding space exploration?). Being the one who cancels such a program would be being the one who ensures humanity gets nothing for the money already spent. Regardless, Elon will not give up easily, and right now it looks like SpaceX has several money funnels set up, so won't run out of their own funding any time soon... and then everyone wants in. :D
"That's 10x the 1Gig speed we enjoy in our homes"
Yeah right, I'd love that kind of speed. I'd kill people for that kind of speed, Joe.
It takes me a few hours to download a 300 Meg file. What is this "1 Gig" he's talking about?
5G
"Only with no natives to wipe out"
2020: Are you sure about that
Human settlers on Mars in the next century will become that planet's natives a thousand years from now. And THAT'S when we send the smallpox-infested blankets...
@@davidanderson_surrey_bc You aren't totally wrong. In even as little as a generation, the different environments will lead to different disease resistance, such that visitors from Earth could cause dangerous epidemics on Mars and vice versa.
@@fighteer1 Could regularly delivered vaccination kits help mitigate the problem?
@@DataLal Sure, as would continued migration both to and from Mars, although if we have a permanent colony there, humans *will* diverge over time. It's inevitable.
"Without any natives to wipe out"
Without any natives that we know of*
Humans sometimes take days to reply to a simple text or email, so I think it's safe to say the communication delay will be irrelevant for a lot of people. Obviously it's a bad scenario for emergency situations though.
Emergency situations? All we can give in an emergency is "helpful advice" in the best bad situation. Any other and we're sending a party to pick up the mummies. They'll arrive in 6 months to a year. At least the dehydrated bodies won't weigh much.
What about quantum-entanglement-communication?
It is a thing , so... throw money at it to find „a way“? Can anyone call Elon?
No it isn't lol I suggest you look it up QE doesn't allow FTL communication sorry.
I just did reply about this if you can check it out I would be happy
Quantum entanglement communication isn't a thing. The speed of light applies to information passage too, as far as we're aware. Also, watch the damn video. He mentions this.
@@WokeandProud incorrect I just did post about this we have done this at CM level so another "impossible" thing busted in 2020 it is fully possible.
@@plasmaburndeath No it isn't you can't use QE to communicate FTL because you can never truly define a quantum system due to uncertainty this isn't a statement it's literally written into the laws of QM itself FTL communication will never be a thing.
quantum entanglement may allow for faster than light communication
Interstellar?! Event Horizon did the paper-wormhole example first!
Yeah I thought of Event Horizon aswell
Was hoping to see this comment!
They did use a porn centrespread though. That clip would probably distract from the larger narrative.
@@ABrit-bt6ce Oh yeah, Weir calls it an "attractive piece of paper" - lol!
7:45
Half the world's population doesn't have to imagine, Joe
Re: The cringey folded-sheet scene in Interstellar.
I found the whole movie like that. Scene after scene of badly written cringe that often could have been easily avoided, without losing the set-piece moments the director wanted, it they had cared about anything _except_ those set-piece moments. Worse, It Took Itself So Very Seriously. It was like watching someone wearing a novelty penis hat and boob apron telling you over and over how important their job is.
THEY WERE MAKING A MOVIE NOT A DOCUMENTARY!
everyone doesn't know what wormholes are or how space works
Ya, that was pretty much my impression of the movie as well.
"No natives to be wiped out"
OR aren't there???
yeah but, is there OIL?
@@Molloy244 Don't let the U.S government find out about oil on mars
“You said goodbye to everyone for good”. Indeed, when our family came to Canada from the Netherlands in 1951, it was certainly with the understanding that it was “Goodbye”, forever. It wasn’t until years later that my parents were able to afford to go back for a visit, one at a time, because the price of air travel had dropped enough.
didnt the netherlands already have phones in the 50s?
@@aitor.online international calling was expensive back then
@@garrysmith1029 more pricey than flying??
If you sent a letter from New York to London, it would take week, sometimes months. Who here has had to order something from China lately? I ordered a replacement battery for my cordless home phone. It had to come from China and it took 6 months to be delivered. No joke. Try ordering something from China today. Minimum shipping time is 45 days....The more things change, the more they stay the same.
Me living in a third world country, with internet connection ranging in that speed of nasa-curiosity only few years ago: 👁👄👁
@Charles-A Rovira yeah but at least for now starlink is gonna be hella expensive
Could you do an episode showing all the stuff you've got in the background?
Yes please..
Binary FTL communications through quantum entanglement is something I've been pondering for a few years. The tough part is getting an entangled quantum "particle" to its destination by light speed, or slower means of transport
So, Mars. I take it the "dumping tea in the harbor" thing is out, then.
We could burn the tea.
It depends how good the Martian coffee is.
First they'd have to dredge themselves a harbour. Although the Valles Marinaris would make a very good alternative.
@@MattOGormanSmith Hey, that's actually not a bad idea. If they can construct appropriate greenhouses, then maybe the lesser Martian gravity could produce a very interesting coffee blend. Or the same goes with other crops. Just being able to offer your Earthside dinner guests some genuine Martian agricultural products would be a real social upper.
Well unless Mars leaders has orange hair...
As someone who lives in Australia, 4 Mbps doesn't sound too bad. Also, as someone who lives is Australia, Canberra is pronounced can-bra
Omfg a reference to mystery men🖤🖤 that’s amazing. I thought not many people knew about that movie lol
Having 2 different internets sounds also interesting.
Big companies and social media would have 2 versions of their sites.
You can connect to the other planets internet if you want but the loading times are just unbearable.
That Mars Attacks! reference, lol.
Super fast communication likely is possible using quantum entanglement radios. Have two radios with quantum entangled electrons. A change of spin on Earth instantly changes the spin on Mars and vice versa - so we have bits 0 and 1 and boom we have faster than light radio.
Let's just create a law here & now: NO MARSDASHIANS!!
Dammit, that's a better joke than I had.
.4-4 Mbps isn't bad that's my Internet.
Downloading at a speed of 51.2kBps is literally worse than a 56kBps modem.
@@thatsweetlilthing2 there are no 56kBps modem. The bandwidth for dial-up is typically 56kbps which is around 7kBps.
But you're a just one person downloading what an average people downloads.
If you've got twenty or 100 people on mars and they all have to send huge amounts of research data, that's gonna be real slow
@@sharpcone OK ya got me
Honestly, Mars should have it's own Internet, a massive array of proxy servers and secondary servers synchronizing with the Earth's Internet constantly.
As for streaming over half a megabit, you can still watch Netflix, Amazon and Disney+ over it.
Communication between Earth and Mars actually shouldn't be that difficult. It would take a bit of engineering but anyone that has had to synchronize remote businesses with the main office over Internet of varying quality has dealt with this.
Honestly I'd love to be involved in that job. That just sounds like fun.
To our American friends. Canberra is pronounced "Canbra", Melbourne = Melbun, Brisbane = Brisbun. :)
And Manuka is Marnika
So basically, all Australian cities end in buns and bras? And I thought the English were a randy lot.
@@davidanderson_surrey_bc It's all that Fosters
I exhaled heavily through my nostrils upon hearing Can-bear-rah
@@davidanderson_surrey_bc plus every second place is named for a Stewart with about three semi-common spellings. Also cats, so many wild cats. Those cats are so badass that they fight and eat the world’s most venomous snakes. That’s right, house cats gone feral. Australia can make any animal terrifying, from frogs, to rabbits all the way up to dogs. 😳
Who else didn't know that Matt Damon played a "Mark?"
.
.
Oh hi Mark
soooo, basically Star Wars. Different cultures, hopefully stable communications at some point, space ships back and forth and...well, a possible interplanetary war a millenia in the future 👀
I love the topics brought up in this video. Especially with the Mars colony wanting independence. If anybody has seen the Series 'The Expanse' it deals with this exact conundrum. Even going as far as the miners of asteroids called "belters"
The disconnection from everyone else could result in another USA, but amplified. Nobody would want that.
Just imagine a whole planet sized USA. It’s spooky, it would dominate solar politics. No one wants that.
Communication between the US and England took weeks, while communication to Mars will only take up to an hour, round-trip. Definitely a delay, but I personally don’t think it’s that bad.
Oh puh-leez
lol hey lets go buy a few shirts to support the channel! ... pop-up on site "Congratulations, you'll be receiving
$0.01 off your purchase." ... ... ... thanks?
2:08 Lief is Leif
na na na na na
And actually pronounced “Layf”, not “Leaf”.
@rasmusjp As a guy named after Lief Erickson, I appreciate you being correct
Joe, the word "NEVER" is a bold statement. Technology in the future will allow it. Today's technology (with electromagnetic communication) is not possible.
My math teacher told me it will never be possible to divide by zero. It was a bold statement because it's just not possible with our current technology.
You would have to have a faster-than-light communication device that has *absolutely nothing* moving faster than the speed of light. (Darn causality!)
Quite paradoxical, isn't it?
There might be some theoretical way to distort the space to shorten the signal travel distance, without distorting time, (which would lengthen the travel time to distance/1c) however, most (if not all) proposals I've heard of, would require more energy than there is in the observable Universe, or at least the Milky Way galaxy.
On the other hand, our scientific knowledge is not perfect, and is constantly evolving, so there's still a tiny, cubic planck's length sized smidge of hope that our greatest minds are wrong on that front.
The problem with FTL communication is not a problem with engineering. Fusion is an engineering problem because it could be done tomorrow if we just optimized everything properly. FTL communication is a *physics* problem not an engineering problem, meaning that as far as we are sure that gravity exists or like we know sound doesn't travel through space, it is literally impossible. You would have to upend everything that we currently hold as empirically true just to invent FTL. If you succeed, you will become one of the famous humans to ever exist. 10 noble prizes will be like mere participation trophies for an achievement that grand.
@@thulyblu5486 Actually, division by zero IS possible, reaching a solution is not. A division by zero leads to an infinite loop of subtraction operations.
@@mawamatakama5150 Well, when you look at a graph of the function 1/x and you look at the point where x=0 and what's next to it you can see that coming from the negative number side the answer should be negative infinity and approaching x=0 from the positive side shoots off to positive infinity. So if there is an answer it should be somewhere between negative infinity and positive infinity.... which gives us no information whatsoever, great.
Or let's approach it like imaginary numbers who can get the square root of negative numbers ( sqrt(-1) = i ), let's imagine we can divide by 0 and define 1/0 = j (for jmaginary).
So 2*1/0 = 2j
2*0=0 and 3*0=0
Therefore 2*0 = 3*0 |(now divide by zero)
and we get 2 = 3
in fact we could replace 2 and 3 with any numbers we want, so we can make any number equal any other number we want. No homework shall ever be marked false again because everything is possible. Some haters will say that this removes the usefulness of math entirely since we can skip all the equations and just plug in the answer we want... but you know, haters gonna hate. Technology will fix that or something.
Battletech had an interesting concept for this, in universe these transmitters were called Hyper Pulse Generator (or HPG) Katrina Steiner had a massive number of them constructed so that she could communicate with the Federated Commonwealth (The Largest "nation" in the Inner Sphere) with only milliseconds delay. Of course the signals are sent faster than light so again physics breaking as of our current understanding. The idea isn't unsound though it's a matter of finding a way for it to actually be possible and if it ever is the people who come after us will wonder why we "Didn't just do it that way in the first place, it's so simple."
Curiosity has a faster internet connection than most Nova Scotians on Eastlink
Wait, didn't they take a picture of balckhole in 2019? Doesn't it prove that blackholes exist and are not just theory?
Yeah, but it was dismissed because they used polaroid
@@diegoiunou lol, was it really dismissed ?
@@morpheus9867 no! I'm being silly because people ask silly questions (confusing black holes with worm holes)
Oh.. 🤦🏾♂️😂[I was actually disappointed by the fact that, I didn't keep myself updated on this said topic.]
When did Joe sit on a copier?
In the 80s we had 1200 baud modems... that’s about 1k bits per second... slower than mars comma. We did just fine
"Mars is gonna be a literal new world... But with no natives to wipe out"
Probably, *undiscovered microorganisms*: "Am I a joke to you?!"
The glove analogy actually improved my understanding of quantum entanglement so much! Thank you, Joe!
Same here
And still the gloves in the boxes isnt correct . Only the receiver of the one box knows the outcome , he has the right glove and presumes the second box has the left glove ? The sender knows nothing until the second box is opened and he sees for himself that his box holds the left or right . What if the receiver lies about which glove he has received ? The sender would be forced to assume his box holds the opposite of what the rec' said ? Correct ? Then opening the box and verifying it holds a left or a right glove ? Hugely different than quantum entanglement of atoms or protons or whatever . Only by measuring it do you know for a fact that it is Up or Down spinning ? You dont even have to look because a 50/50 guess is just as accurate . What if box 1 held the atoms that make up a right glove and on the quantum level it can also be atoms for a left glove ? Will box 2 hold the opposite of whatever box 1 is observed to be when opened ? You can't know...ya know ?
What about quantum internet using quantum entanglement? Communicating this way would be immediate and not even limited by the speed of light.
Stating that something will NEVER occur can always be risky
I remember when I had Joe’s entire library that I haven’t seen. Now when these pop up I my feed I am very excited. Thanks Joe!
Ah, 1997. When you could hit pause, go do something and come back to have enough buffer collected to play a video...
If there is sufficient bandwidth, latency of 20 minutes is not in any way going to lead to a significant divergence in culture. Other things might but not a few minute latency. Data such as movies or youtube videos only need to be transferred once and then stored on local Mars servers. Data such as network news would be at most 22 minutes old. Interpersonal communication would be slower than a telephone call but contain vast amounts more data and they are guaranteed delivery. Not long ago (70's) a phone call would just ring and ring until you gave up because the person was not near their landline and no answering machines existed. Yet society remained cohesive.
No natives to wipe out... That's what the government wants you to believe.. (suspense music)
And that is why we've kept samples of smallpox at the CDC lab in Georgia.
No primitives trying to keep us with a stoneage thinking eating rats and worshipping stones*