Hi Fraser, I’m really glad the dreaded algorithm suggested this channel. Rick Davis thank you for sharing your time with us. I could listen to you talk about this for hours.
I love the term he used…”The Second Planet”…almost like we’re already there. It’s pretty amazing that we are actually scripting the actual game plan to do it!
We used to script plans to do this since 1950 and i mean reall science groups with founding and teams of engineers ect, not some guys casualy talking. And still nothing. Without spacex nasa would not launch human mars mission at least untill 2050. So all our hope in seeing this in a lifetime is in a crazy billionaire who can die at any moment, and already promised humans on mars by year 2018 then 2020 then 2024 then 2026, without delivering.
One of the things that is really cool about interviews like this… in the year 2300 if we’ve managed to avoid destroying our own planet and annihilating one another, some student living on Mars will find it and marvel at our historical situation. They’ll be surprised at exactly how hard it was for us to get to Mars and how much time we took just to select places to initially land and explore. Watching a video from RUclips will probably be like reading old newspapers off of microfiche or something similar, but of course it’ll be instantaneous. Great interview Frasier and thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight Rick!
So fun to watch this Fraser. First, your prep was fantastic, or “spot on” as Rick mentioned, resulting in your always fascinating questions. And secondly, Rick is so genuine and interesting. Love his realistic perspective and openness. Two thumbs up!!!
I have not seen every interview Fraser has done, but of the several I have seen, this is by far my most favorite interview. @FraserCain you have asked the most interesting questions. Thank you
Such a wonderful, inspiring and delightful interview. Thank you very much Rick and Fraser! I hope to see more from Rick, and/or the team(s) he's working with.
What a fantastic, knowledgeable guest! It doesn't happen often these days, but listening to Rick Davis gave me another taste of that raw excitement from contemplating people walking on another planet. A ton if info here on the work underway to explore Mars.
they never even put a man on the Moon, how are they gonna put a man on Mars, and if they did how could you fully believe it? You might as watch interstellar and tell yourself we've already flown directly into the singularity of a black hole.
Isn’t everybody’s? My wish is that Elon Musk can find a competent replacement for himself when he retires, so mankind can continue his genius methods and innovations.
Love this guy - he seems to have a pure joy in thinking about engineering problems and solutions. I don’t know if humans to Mars is really something we should try to do (I’m not convinced the benefits outweigh the cost and risk), but his enthusiasm is infectious.
@@replica1052 Long term, absolutely. But it’s not really a moment in history where that is a pressing problem for humanity. Good idea to first understand how to maintain ecological balance on the home world before we worry about new ones.
Great topic and guest! There has been some talk of Valles Marineris as a landing/colonization site because it is roughly equatorial, runs roughly east/west so gets more sunshine, has more shielding from cosmic radiation, is warmer with thicker atmosphere because of up to 7 km depth, and because of being lower is thought to have more subsurface water despite being equatorial.
@@Zurround What SpaceX is doing is called disruptive change and many refuse to believe how rapidly it can take place. Nokia thought the iPhone would never catch on, Kodak thought digital cameras were a silly fad, buggy manufacturers saw Henry Ford's car as hardly more than a noisy toy, and today's legacy automakers dismissed EVs as inconsequential but are now headed for bankruptcy. The vast cost savings and payload capacity of a fully reusable Starship and orbital refueling will likely result in major Mars missions decades earlier than many assume.
@@McClarinJ Too expensive. Nobody has the MONEY to pay for it. Whose TAXES do you raise for that when our infrastructure is crumbling, our public schools are a joke, our government is in debt, and we are about to need to finance a 3rd world war? Do YOU have enough $$$$ to finance it? NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
@@Zurround, What if I told you that it would be paid for privately? NASA will almost certainly be a part of it unless that world war happens but the plan behind Starlink Internet service is that it will generate much of the money needed to get to Mars. Consider that the SpaceX Starship should be able to launch payload to Mars for just $130/kg compared to $200 000/kg for recent one-way scientific missions. Musk's goal has always been to make access to space and other planets affordable, hence the reusable rockets and cheap methylox propellant.
We will not see a human on Mars in any of our lifetimes. 50 years since we went to the moon. Mars is an order (or many orders) harder. It’s hundreds of year left before we get there. P.S. I hope somebody sees this comment in 200 years. What are the chances?
@@mattlong4102 Hi Matt. I can’t see how. As said in the interview it’s at least 10 times harder to get to Mars then the moon. Probably many, many times harder then that. I think it’s more likely that environmental issues will overwhelm the earth in the next 200 years and people will be much more concerned with fixing that then spending resources trying (and failing) to get to Mars. A report this midnight said we hit 1.5 degrees of warming within a decade. That will cause huge problems to solve.
Yes you are right we will not get to Mars anytime soon. In my thought humanity may take 500 or more years. We tend to overestimate our capability as human. When we got to the moon people thought that 80s will take us to mars and by 2000 we will be on our way to Alpha centauri. 2024 and still contemplating going back to moon and some people still dont believe we made it there.
I just found out that the song "City of Stars" could be refurbished to be "City on Mars" ;-) With a few changes. It's not about crowded restaurants, but crowded airlocks (an elongated word "ai-airlohocks" or a pause to stay in sync with the music). What everyone is looking for.. is not love, but "air" ("from somewhere else", because "from someone else" would have such negative effects...). And so on ;-)
I wonder if Valles Marineris, or one of the side canyons, would be a good place to start a potential human habitat. It is a lower elevation, so more/ denser atmosphere. And there would be easier access to layers of rock in the side cliffs, and possible water. Also, where the valley narrows, one can imagine a clear roof installed and possible enclosing the ends to form an earth like atmosphere and habitat.
They have found sub surface water / ice sources as well. Would seem a good place to start. Communications might be a bit compromised being at the bottom of a huge canyon though.
Radiation is a major consideration. Lava tubes would provide protection and some might exist in places where ground water (chemically bound?) has been detected. Sealing up a cavern like that could provide cubic kilometers of habitable volume.
I've always wondered this as well. I think the canyon is wide enough to land in and access to water would help too. The air would be slightly denser, which hopefully would mean higher temperatures, hopefully around 0c.
Rick was a fantastic guest. So smart, so incisive, and so amusing. His laugh is so genuine and infectious. His enthusiasm for this topic is just the same. Great stuff. Great guy.
Additive manufacturing both in original design and files on board the endeavors will be a necessity. Not only for replacing broken bits, but also to build habitats, landing pads, and roads. Given the length of time off Earth, in 0G or 1/3G, will have to think about the difficulties of returning to 1G making this into a 1-way trip for a percentage of people.
Regarding crew numbers: might be a good idea to have two complete ships with three or four people each. Redundancy. Both would be launched and arrive at just about the same time so they can communicate or assist each other expeditiously.
@@phouliscostantinou1767 Yes another very good reason. After you've been cooped up with the same few people for months, it would be good to hang out with somebody you haven't seen for a while.
When it comes to communication with long delays, I wonder if text chat will be preferable. It helps keep the context of the discussuion to see the chat log right there. If just transmitting speech over radio you may hear the answer, but be unsure what question it answers.
Came here from JMG, keep up the good work. I hope we can wake more and more people up to space & how your imagination can have a great time, just with the things that are known, much less the endless fun of unknown speculation. However I enjoy how the things you do ARE rooted in what we known and can happen, and speculation tends to stay around what can at least according to the physics could be possible. Thank you.
This was a great video and interview Fraser! As I was watching it I was wondering if it was one of your best. Then you also answered that question without me asking. It seems like you were inferring it was in the top 10 at least. 👍
I heard Fraser mention Starship once but have yet to hear Rick refer to anything SpaceX. I can understand there might be some reticence to overtly plan on Starship since it's unproven so far but I hope that, as it demonstrates success, its potential will be more openly acknowledged. Rick mentioned the disappointment of drilling a two-meter hole and coming up dry but, by being able to land 100 Earth-tons of payload, Starship could include a commercial self-propelled drilling rig that could sink a large-diameter hole to profound depths if need be. A larger crew, years of food supply, habitat-building robots, and all sorts of equipment could be sent, and not just a single ship but a small fleet with large rovers with 1,000 km range, small thorium reactors, Sabatier methane plants, and you name it.
Amazing that you watch a state of the art discussion like this and still cling to Musk-level fantasies of fleets of ships going to drop cities on Mars. Did you hear what he said? It will be a miracle to get 4 people there and back in one piece anytime in the next 20 years.
@@jamese9283 Amazing that you see my comment as an irrelevant fantasy. Starship has already been selected by NASA as the first human landing system (HLS) for the Artemis program and mission planners have been encouraged within NASA to "think bigger" since Starship should obviate the need to miniaturize everything due to its enormous payload capacity. We may disagree on the desirability of colonizing Mars but you cannot deny that, with a number of Starships ready to launch and refuel in orbit, it's best to launch several at a time in the optimum Mars launch window that occurs every 26 months. Naturally, this all depends on the success SpaceX has in developing Starship. If it ends in failure then yes, we are limited to other means and slower progress, so >20 years would be reasonable. My main point is that old ways of planning still dominate at NASA and it will take time for the potential of Starship to change that.
@@McClarinJ Yes, there is "old planning" at NASA that needs to change, but it is unwise to expect Starship to lead the way. It is a massive over-the-top rocket that is unlikely to work in its current form. Major refueling in orbit is unproven. Starship is too big to be in demand for the current satellite market. Human rating will be difficult. The only reason it was chosen for HLS is Musk low-balled the bid. Any talk of launching multiple Starships with huge payload and human cargos is far over the horizon.
@@jamese9283 Unwise to EXPECT for sure until it can orbit and deorbit successfully and until refueling in LEO is perfected. I disagree with the "too big" view as it is already in demand for Starlink satellite deployment and, at a projected cost per kg to LEO of just $10, think of the benefits to rideshare launch customers. SpaceX has already done this with a number of Falcon 9 launches where the cost is over 200 times higher assuming a planned booster and fairings recovery. Also, "Musk" (more likely Gwynne Shotwell) didn't offer a deceptively or unrealistically low bid. Look at the cost difference between the Crew Dragon and the Boeing Starliner. SpaceX is mission-driven, leaner, more efficient. Also, SpaceX is not charging for Starship development since it was already in development for the Mars colonization mission. Every other bid covered all development costs
Cleaning up our planet and addressing environmental challenges here on Earth would be akin to a summer camp compared to the monumental task of establishing flourishing colonies on Mars.
You’re so fake/ disingenuous. It’s not a “this or that” thing. Not going to Mars doesn’t mean we’ll just magically fork over the money to solve our problems. Hell, NASA’s budget is 1/8th what it was previously and instead of solving other problems with that saved money we got tax cuts on the wealthy.
Kudos to Fraser for being one of the very few prepared to talk about REALISTIC Mars missions (rather than engage in the fantasy of "settlement"). I want to see humans on Mars, engaging in exploration. It's about the values of curiosity and cooperation. Not exploitation. Please, I'd love to see more of this.
So happy I took Fraser’s advice to listen to the whole interview. Extremely interesting video with a really smart guest. Bottom line here, Mars is hard. Very hard.
Another real world example of small group of people, physically isolated for months with inconsistent communication back to the world are the winter overs in the various bases on Antarctica. Look at the winter overs at Pole. They are isolated physically from the world with no flights in or out. With a hostile environment outside where exposed skin can be frost bitten in minutes. And communication only for a few hours a day. If something happens when there is no satellite communication, they have to either solve it or be able to hold on for hours before they can communicate back north. Granted, once communication is back up the delay is only about a second (transmission to geosynchronous orbit and back). But that communication window is only a couple hours long. Not an exact parallel to moon or Mars, but I would expect there can be some lessons learned there.
I remember seeing a moving star when I was a child. My dad told me it was called sputnik. I grew up watching the space program and still amazed by launches and missions done today. However I fear that we are like a bunch of people planning a vacation while sitting in a burning building. Great discussion though. Nice to see intelligent sharing is still around. Muchas Gracias Ya'll
An EVA on the space station - and (not) on Mars: The ground support: "Grab your motorized tool (power drill), configure it for 5 turns left, torque setting 2". (These would have been multiple calls, I simplified it). 45 minutes later: (when on mars) Astronaut to Earth ground support: "It doesn't work". 45 minutes later: "Oh, try it with torque setting 3". The astronaut on Mars would have this up to 45 minutes delay from his question to the answer, the Earth ground support would also have this same 45 minutes delay between his answers to the astronaut and the response from the astronaut. ;-) Yes, you both are right of course, they need to be able to do that on their own on Mars. Maybe test this on the Moon and on the station as long as the station is still up there.
I wish someone would land a rover next to Olympus Mons or Vallis Marineris so we can get some close up photos of them. Ever since I did a science project on these locations in 5th grade I've been waiting for someone to do this.
Heck, climb the darned thing and then take pictures... (or is that humanly possible? It's what, 28,000 feet or so? Perfect afternoon stroll with your cart full of oxygen bottles....) 😅
Great content. I did observe that all of Rick's scenario planning seemed to presuppose that NASA will in complete control of the mission architecture and that none of the mission architectures he described seemed to include Starship. I'm pretty sure there is no way NASA can fund their own transportation for the Mars program. Hopefully, they are just being politically astute because there is no formal agreement for commercial involvment rather than being naive about their role.
Question: Is it a possibility to have extendable glide wings (either pivot out or extend in a tubular extension design) that would allow a very long slow down process before actually landing?
It took the USA over 100 years to get to a couple hundred population. That is in a fertile land with everything needed to survive. Your prediction is about right.
Thanks for a brilliant interview with the Nasa Scientist. Mars getting there and staying. The problems good grief! And the dust storms, how long did you say they lasted? Not for me mate, it all sounds too hostile!!
"It's gonna be a yahoo ride... You're gonna be close to the ground... SCREAMING" Looks like we need a new Mars show now to show us this landing in 4k... I think HBO is up in the rotation?
Question: Mars will be the next celestial body humans step foot in, what do you think will be the next. Europa, Titan, Ganemede, Ceres? I assume Mercury/Venus are off the table for a while.
@@tyronelannister9922 on the surface yes but we don't have to live on the surface. Up in the clouds it's pretty nice. Same gravity as Earth, same pressure, and nice temperature.
@@tyronelannister9922 NASA is already working on a high altitude blimp style mission for Venus. Still a hell of a lot of issues with the upper atmo comp that will make it harder than Mars
Mars habitats could have passive air locks. Picture a J-shaped tunnel filled with liquid. The low end of the "J" is a pool inside the pressurized habitat, and the high end is a pool on the surface. You put on your space suit, go down a ladder or ramp to the bottom of the "J", then climb up to the high side, and your on the surface. But surely the liquid would freeze or boil off, right? Not necessarily. I found an article on line where researches showed that very salty brine could stay liquid on the martian surface for years. But I think some sort of alcohol would be better since it would cleans any perchlorates off the suits of returning colonists. Think of the mass savings if they don't have to bring a lot of massive air lock doors from Earth.
Sounds like a Delta P disaster waiting to happen. Underwater welding and maintenance is problematic enough on earth on things like oil rigs divers die all the time from that one hidden killer I'd imagine being an underwater welder in Mars is not gonna make it easier. Your method is similar to how welders work on these oil pipelines already and people have died when protocol isn't followed perfect or things fail. I remember one story where the divers were sucked into a pipe because of the timing involved with the plugs in the pipe which are meant to maintain the air pocket for the divers and the mishap basically made that air pocket catastrophically fail and they got sucked down the pipe.
Interesting idea.. seems possible. The water column necessary to hold the pressure would be 3 times the amount of mass over your head on earth. So a long vertical tunnel maybe 30 meters tall. I think the airlock door wins…
awesome talk. But I can't escape the feeling that building large space structures like O Neil cylinders "close" to earth would be safer and possibly faster. As a way of exploration and scientific discovery, planets and especially mars will always draw humans to advance our knowledge.
While O niel cylinders sound easier in theory. There are several problems that are not immediatly obvious, you need to assemble a massive amount of material in space to build it at a scale where it could be self-sustaining. This is going to be very expensive. There are als micro meteorites, radation, orbital decay and lost of complicated astroid harvesting and in space construction technology that needs to be developed. Personally I think both options are equally hard with there own pros and Cons.
Nobody dreams of living on an O'Neil cylinder though. You can't explore it and you'll never discover a new life form or anything else on it. It short O'Neill are boring!
Asteroid mining will luckily make colonization of most planets obsolete and noncompetitive. The colonization and exploitation of planets resources is like asteroid mining with extra steps. Beside research there is not much to get on planets that you can not also get in space.
What an amazing conversation. It sheds light on the effort needed to plan a trip to Mars. Sometimes we the space enthusiasts are focused on the new shiny bauble like Starship without considering what it takes to send astronauts to another body; the moon or Mars.
Hi Fraser, what's the chance of US Space Force to attack the Chinese base on the south pole of the MOON right now as a prehenptise Strick and what are the logistics? We know the tech is out there but how it has to be done?
Fabulous interview. Thank you, Mr Cain and Mr Davis. The main things we will learn by humans going to Mars is about the challenges of getting to Mars, surviving there for a time, and coming back safely to earth. As far as studying the planet itself, what can hands-on science do more effectively and more cost effectively than will the next generations of robots?
Hi Fraser! Love your show. I had a question: you had mentioned building a Dyson sphere using Mercury for the material. If you were to be able to actually remove mercury would that not affect the other planets in the solar system and greatly change our planet’s orbit in the length of the astronomical unit? Thanks so much!
Elon's nothing but a greedy conman. He's not a "genius". He's not an engineer, he didn't "start PayPal" and he can't even code properly. All he's good at is conning money and failing upwards.
Early days in the plan to make humanity multiplanetary. Enormous success so far. Leapfrogged NASA with rocket technology and economics. Building Starlink to provide global communications and an international funding base for future development of the Mars program. First base to be named Bowie 🤔👍🏽
They should send starship with robots and a bigger drone to scout sites. Pick up the samples and the return. But no sense in sending humans all the way to mars and not land or step foot on the surface.
Some of the answers i hear for questions about lack of gravity, lack of contact, what are we going to do if something went wrong seem to be for the scenarios where agencies half-arse the first trips to Mars.
Space X with Starship are targeting at return trip of $100,000, or price of the average house (I've heard both) return for an individual. So I'd be tempted to sell up at 60 and head to Mars for a one way trip and try and help build the future.
Dev, I'd think some advanced medical knowledge. Mechanical aptitude and electrical skills. The ability to know how to produce food would be helpful. If you can't figure something out, there's always RUclips too. Haha
Thanks for this one, Frasier, Rick Davis is such an amazing and inspirational figure. He truly represents the best of NASA. Thoroughly delightful informative and enjoyable. I can't wait until your next interview with him.
Suggestion for Rick and you: Don't have the camera look directly at the lights. The glare makes it tough to watch. It's better to have a brighter face and a darker background.
Why is it we do not send some kind of self sustainable greenhouses to Mars, perhaps something inflatable in plastic etc, with a robot or something inside to Mars? Wouldn't that be very interesting to follow via video etc? And if we manage to hold plants alive in the greenhouses we can send a lot of them and have a source of food we we travel to the planet?
That's my thoughts too. Send like 5 fully loaded Starships there with plenty of robots to get things started so that when the first humans arrive, they can get right down to doing the science and other things robots can't or shouldn't do. Having to go there, get all that stuff ready upon arrival, doesn't make sense given we already have capable robots.
@@RickL_was_here You have this idea of our current robotics to be way more advanced than it is. Staged videos (Boston Dynamics) aside, our current best robots are stationary, working in factories and assembling stuff. And they still need humans in the mix for when random things go wrong outside of their control. Mars is an extreme environment, with more radiation, dust, and less heat, water, energy sources, that this problem is multiplied many fold. You'll need humans at least in orbit around Mars who can operate those robots without the time lag, and be there to troubleshoot before real problems arise. But, if humans are already in Mars orbit, may as well land them to help with those activities.
The robots don't need to be any more advanced than anything we already have. Not much more advanced than what we've already sent there. This is an easy solution and if there ever comes an 'opportunity' for me to prove it, I'd gladly step up. I don't take no for an answer.
SpaceX Starship is built to use the main motors as retro rockets along with the belly flop system. Landing rockets are high up on the sides to minimise dust generation.
It seems crazy that we don’t have robotic arms on our rovers with some sort of “mars dust broom” to get all the dust off of the solar panels. Why don’t they?
@@frasercain Just thinking out loud, but I'm old enough to have used a polonium brush to remove dust from photographic film. I'm sure the engineers involved would be aware of this effect. Does the metallic rover develop a net charge that's either positive or negative or does dust just develop both charges and stick?👾🤖👾
Fraser, I watched a video recently about that dust problem and no, it isn't a static issue, the Martian winds easily blows it off. A small compressor would easily be a worthwhile addition to any rover. Or an antistatic 'snow' brush. Static is far from being the problem.
Hi Fraser, I’m really glad the dreaded algorithm suggested this channel. Rick Davis thank you for sharing your time with us. I could listen to you talk about this for hours.
I love the term he used…”The Second Planet”…almost like we’re already there. It’s pretty amazing that we are actually scripting the actual game plan to do it!
Some people are just more batshit crazy than others I guess and these guys are lost and cannot be found.
We used to script plans to do this since 1950 and i mean reall science groups with founding and teams of engineers ect, not some guys casualy talking. And still nothing. Without spacex nasa would not launch human mars mission at least untill 2050. So all our hope in seeing this in a lifetime is in a crazy billionaire who can die at any moment, and already promised humans on mars by year 2018 then 2020 then 2024 then 2026, without delivering.
What a delightful interview. Thank you both so much!
One of the things that is really cool about interviews like this… in the year 2300 if we’ve managed to avoid destroying our own planet and annihilating one another, some student living on Mars will find it and marvel at our historical situation. They’ll be surprised at exactly how hard it was for us to get to Mars and how much time we took just to select places to initially land and explore. Watching a video from RUclips will probably be like reading old newspapers off of microfiche or something similar, but of course it’ll be instantaneous. Great interview Frasier and thanks for sharing your knowledge and insight Rick!
One of the best interviews on the'nuts & bolts' of pipe fitting mars!
So fun to watch this Fraser. First, your prep was fantastic, or “spot on” as Rick mentioned, resulting in your always fascinating questions. And secondly, Rick is so genuine and interesting. Love his realistic perspective and openness. Two thumbs up!!!
100%
And giggles
I have not seen every interview Fraser has done, but of the several I have seen, this is by far my most favorite interview. @FraserCain you have asked the most interesting questions. Thank you
"We would use [the site in Antarctica] if it weren't so hard to get there." That's ... telling.
Starship might be a good option for getting to Antarctica a little easier. Though I'm guessing it won't be cheaper than just taking a boat.
Such a wonderful, inspiring and delightful interview. Thank you very much Rick and Fraser! I hope to see more from Rick, and/or the team(s) he's working with.
How will they get through the firmament? This is poppycock. Adult cartoons. Grow up children
What a fantastic, knowledgeable guest! It doesn't happen often these days, but listening to Rick Davis gave me another taste of that raw excitement from contemplating people walking on another planet.
A ton if info here on the work underway to explore Mars.
Hurry up folks! I'd like to be around when we land on Mars but my time on Earth is running short. 😉
they never even put a man on the Moon, how are they gonna put a man on Mars, and if they did how could you fully believe it? You might as watch interstellar and tell yourself we've already flown directly into the singularity of a black hole.
R u dying?
No kidding. I was going to write the same thing and then saw you hit the nail on the head.
Ditto
Isn’t everybody’s? My wish is that Elon Musk can find a competent replacement for himself when he retires, so mankind can continue his genius methods and innovations.
Strapping in for some great content!
Love this guy - he seems to have a pure joy in thinking about engineering problems and solutions.
I don’t know if humans to Mars is really something we should try to do (I’m not convinced the benefits outweigh the cost and risk), but his enthusiasm is infectious.
(to surrect planets is how to live in a universe )
@@replica1052 Long term, absolutely. But it’s not really a moment in history where that is a pressing problem for humanity. Good idea to first understand how to maintain ecological balance on the home world before we worry about new ones.
@@samardevneo space as highways make earth and mars the same place - a two-planet-world
(to master a solar system as identity )
@@samardevneo (to surrect planets is exactly what life needs )
@@samardevneo life as center of the universe
Excellent Fraser. Thanks for looking at the finish line. Helps a lot!!!
Great topic and guest! There has been some talk of Valles Marineris as a landing/colonization site because it is roughly equatorial, runs roughly east/west so gets more sunshine, has more shielding from cosmic radiation, is warmer with thicker atmosphere because of up to 7 km depth, and because of being lower is thought to have more subsurface water despite being equatorial.
Yeah, but the Angry Astronaut doesn't work for NASA. But he's always good at second guessing the experts.
Its fun to hear people talk about something that will probably never happen or if it does at all the VERY DISTANT future when most of us are dead.
@@Zurround What SpaceX is doing is called disruptive change and many refuse to believe how rapidly it can take place. Nokia thought the iPhone would never catch on, Kodak thought digital cameras were a silly fad, buggy manufacturers saw Henry Ford's car as hardly more than a noisy toy, and today's legacy automakers dismissed EVs as inconsequential but are now headed for bankruptcy. The vast cost savings and payload capacity of a fully reusable Starship and orbital refueling will likely result in major Mars missions decades earlier than many assume.
@@McClarinJ Too expensive. Nobody has the MONEY to pay for it. Whose TAXES do you raise for that when our infrastructure is crumbling, our public schools are a joke, our government is in debt, and we are about to need to finance a 3rd world war? Do YOU have enough $$$$ to finance it? NOT GONNA HAPPEN.
@@Zurround, What if I told you that it would be paid for privately? NASA will almost certainly be a part of it unless that world war happens but the plan behind Starlink Internet service is that it will generate much of the money needed to get to Mars. Consider that the SpaceX Starship should be able to launch payload to Mars for just $130/kg compared to $200 000/kg for recent one-way scientific missions. Musk's goal has always been to make access to space and other planets affordable, hence the reusable rockets and cheap methylox propellant.
When I was a kid in the 50's, this conversation would be in a sci fi movie. 😎
… and Canals!!!
it certainly would, they couldn't imagine conversing online,.
It still is sci fi
@@everettwalker9141when were you last down to Boca? I was there to witness the first launch . It is no longer SciFi but Sci Possible.
@@everettwalker9141 I disagree. Space x is paving the way forward to a great future.
Great interview! I found the "more crew is better" concept intriguing... It makes sense, but seemed counterintuitive initially
This was perhaps the most encouraging interview that I have seen on planetary exploration. Rick Davis is so enthusiastic.
loved this interview. probably hands down my fav thus far. Thank you Rick and Fraser!
its so much fun seeing someone that smart just geek out about such a difficult problem. awesome interview
We will not see a human on Mars in any of our lifetimes. 50 years since we went to the moon. Mars is an order (or many orders) harder. It’s hundreds of year left before we get there.
P.S. I hope somebody sees this comment in 200 years. What are the chances?
I bet you are wrong.
There is probably a person alive today who will live to 200 or more.
@@mattlong4102 Hi Matt. I can’t see how. As said in the interview it’s at least 10 times harder to get to Mars then the moon. Probably many, many times harder then that. I think it’s more likely that environmental issues will overwhelm the earth in the next 200 years and people will be much more concerned with fixing that then spending resources trying (and failing) to get to Mars. A report this midnight said we hit 1.5 degrees of warming within a decade. That will cause huge problems to solve.
Yes you are right we will not get to Mars anytime soon. In my thought humanity may take 500 or more years. We tend to overestimate our capability as human. When we got to the moon people thought that 80s will take us to mars and by 2000 we will be on our way to Alpha centauri. 2024 and still contemplating going back to moon and some people still dont believe we made it there.
@@mralekito
We got to the moon in 10 years and Mars requires the same DV to reach
Such an interesting talk! Thank you both a lot!
Thanks Fraser for doing this and thanks Rick for your insight to our future on our second planet.
Fantastic interview! I really love his energy, he reminds me of Mr. Rogers in the best way possible.
Just don't say it lol
I just found out that the song "City of Stars" could be refurbished to be "City on Mars" ;-)
With a few changes. It's not about crowded restaurants, but crowded airlocks (an elongated word "ai-airlohocks" or a pause to stay in sync with the music).
What everyone is looking for.. is not love, but "air" ("from somewhere else", because "from someone else" would have such negative effects...). And so on ;-)
Great Interview.
I wonder if Valles Marineris, or one of the side canyons, would be a good place to start a potential human habitat. It is a lower elevation, so more/ denser atmosphere. And there would be easier access to layers of rock in the side cliffs, and possible water. Also, where the valley narrows, one can imagine a clear roof installed and possible enclosing the ends to form an earth like atmosphere and habitat.
How much denser?
When the atmospheric pressure is 1% of Earth's on average a small difference in altitude won't make a difference.
They have found sub surface water / ice sources as well. Would seem a good place to start. Communications might be a bit compromised being at the bottom of a huge canyon though.
Radiation is a major consideration. Lava tubes would provide protection and some might exist in places where ground water (chemically bound?) has been detected. Sealing up a cavern like that could provide cubic kilometers of habitable volume.
I've always wondered this as well. I think the canyon is wide enough to land in and access to water would help too.
The air would be slightly denser, which hopefully would mean higher temperatures, hopefully around 0c.
The guy that wants to go to Mars: "I'd go to Antarctica but it's too hard to get there" 😕
Rick was a fantastic guest. So smart, so incisive, and so amusing. His laugh is so genuine and infectious. His enthusiasm for this topic is just the same. Great stuff. Great guy.
One of your best interviews ever. Great topic and just the right guy to discuss it. Bravo!😊😊
Additive manufacturing both in original design and files on board the endeavors will be a necessity. Not only for replacing broken bits, but also to build habitats, landing pads, and roads. Given the length of time off Earth, in 0G or 1/3G, will have to think about the difficulties of returning to 1G making this into a 1-way trip for a percentage of people.
I was such a skeptic of 3D printing 8 years ago when I first saw it... but the Raptor 3 has put me right! 😆
What a fascinating man to listen to Fraser. and a great interview!!
Regarding crew numbers: might be a good idea to have two complete ships with three or four people each. Redundancy. Both would be launched and arrive at just about the same time so they can communicate or assist each other expeditiously.
They can have a BBQ together up there........
@@phouliscostantinou1767 Yes another very good reason. After you've been cooped up with the same few people for months, it would be good to hang out with somebody you haven't seen for a while.
@@phouliscostantinou1767 maybe microwave ribs would be a better idea.
🔥🤔
@@phouliscostantinou1767 😀
@@JackO024 or maybe put some steaks out on the heat shield before they enter the atmosphere.
Another superb interview! Really enjoying the work you're doing!
What an incredible interview. He takes it so seriously and has so much experience
Brilliant interview. Thank you so much!
Great video! I never thought about most of these problems before. It made me realize that problems ARE cool
When it comes to communication with long delays, I wonder if text chat will be preferable. It helps keep the context of the discussuion to see the chat log right there. If just transmitting speech over radio you may hear the answer, but be unsure what question it answers.
Outstanding interview.
Such an amazing and uplifting interview and perspective. Many thanks to all involved in this production.
Thanks! I'm glad you enjoyed it.
Came here from JMG, keep up the good work. I hope we can wake more and more people up to space & how your imagination can have a great time, just with the things that are known, much less the endless fun of unknown speculation. However I enjoy how the things you do ARE rooted in what we known and can happen, and speculation tends to stay around what can at least according to the physics could be possible. Thank you.
This was a great video and interview Fraser! As I was watching it I was wondering if it was one of your best. Then you also answered that question without me asking. It seems like you were inferring it was in the top 10 at least. 👍
Excellent interview. Learn some new things. Thank you!
Awesome interview, thanks
very well presented! learned what i was thinking about for yera's!
Thanks for this video. It was very interesting
Thanks Fraser, this is one of my favorite interviews on your channel so far I think.
What a great show. Rick is amazing. Thank you Fraser for the excellent questions and both of you for allowing our imagination juices to run rampant.
fascinating deep dive on human Mars exploration -- thanks!
Thanks for watching!
I heard Fraser mention Starship once but have yet to hear Rick refer to anything SpaceX. I can understand there might be some reticence to overtly plan on Starship since it's unproven so far but I hope that, as it demonstrates success, its potential will be more openly acknowledged. Rick mentioned the disappointment of drilling a two-meter hole and coming up dry but, by being able to land 100 Earth-tons of payload, Starship could include a commercial self-propelled drilling rig that could sink a large-diameter hole to profound depths if need be. A larger crew, years of food supply, habitat-building robots, and all sorts of equipment could be sent, and not just a single ship but a small fleet with large rovers with 1,000 km range, small thorium reactors, Sabatier methane plants, and you name it.
Amazing that you watch a state of the art discussion like this and still cling to Musk-level fantasies of fleets of ships going to drop cities on Mars. Did you hear what he said? It will be a miracle to get 4 people there and back in one piece anytime in the next 20 years.
@@jamese9283 Amazing that you see my comment as an irrelevant fantasy. Starship has already been selected by NASA as the first human landing system (HLS) for the Artemis program and mission planners have been encouraged within NASA to "think bigger" since Starship should obviate the need to miniaturize everything due to its enormous payload capacity. We may disagree on the desirability of colonizing Mars but you cannot deny that, with a number of Starships ready to launch and refuel in orbit, it's best to launch several at a time in the optimum Mars launch window that occurs every 26 months. Naturally, this all depends on the success SpaceX has in developing Starship. If it ends in failure then yes, we are limited to other means and slower progress, so >20 years would be reasonable.
My main point is that old ways of planning still dominate at NASA and it will take time for the potential of Starship to change that.
@@McClarinJ Yes, there is "old planning" at NASA that needs to change, but it is unwise to expect Starship to lead the way. It is a massive over-the-top rocket that is unlikely to work in its current form. Major refueling in orbit is unproven. Starship is too big to be in demand for the current satellite market. Human rating will be difficult. The only reason it was chosen for HLS is Musk low-balled the bid. Any talk of launching multiple Starships with huge payload and human cargos is far over the horizon.
@@jamese9283 Unwise to EXPECT for sure until it can orbit and deorbit successfully and until refueling in LEO is perfected. I disagree with the "too big" view as it is already in demand for Starlink satellite deployment and, at a projected cost per kg to LEO of just $10, think of the benefits to rideshare launch customers. SpaceX has already done this with a number of Falcon 9 launches where the cost is over 200 times higher assuming a planned booster and fairings recovery. Also, "Musk" (more likely Gwynne Shotwell) didn't offer a deceptively or unrealistically low bid. Look at the cost difference between the Crew Dragon and the Boeing Starliner. SpaceX is mission-driven, leaner, more efficient. Also, SpaceX is not charging for Starship development since it was already in development for the Mars colonization mission. Every other bid covered all development costs
Well argued Jim.
Cleaning up our planet and addressing environmental challenges here on Earth would be akin to a summer camp compared to the monumental task of establishing flourishing colonies on Mars.
You’re so fake/ disingenuous. It’s not a “this or that” thing. Not going to Mars doesn’t mean we’ll just magically fork over the money to solve our problems. Hell, NASA’s budget is 1/8th what it was previously and instead of solving other problems with that saved money we got tax cuts on the wealthy.
Kudos to Fraser for being one of the very few prepared to talk about REALISTIC Mars missions (rather than engage in the fantasy of "settlement"). I want to see humans on Mars, engaging in exploration. It's about the values of curiosity and cooperation. Not exploitation. Please, I'd love to see more of this.
So happy I took Fraser’s advice to listen to the whole interview. Extremely interesting video with a really smart guest. Bottom line here, Mars is hard. Very hard.
Another real world example of small group of people, physically isolated for months with inconsistent communication back to the world are the winter overs in the various bases on Antarctica. Look at the winter overs at Pole. They are isolated physically from the world with no flights in or out. With a hostile environment outside where exposed skin can be frost bitten in minutes. And communication only for a few hours a day. If something happens when there is no satellite communication, they have to either solve it or be able to hold on for hours before they can communicate back north. Granted, once communication is back up the delay is only about a second (transmission to geosynchronous orbit and back). But that communication window is only a couple hours long. Not an exact parallel to moon or Mars, but I would expect there can be some lessons learned there.
Did you watch the entire video? They talked about Antarctic bases a lot.
I remember seeing a moving star when I was a child. My dad told me it was called sputnik. I grew up watching the space program and still amazed by launches and missions done today. However I fear that we are like a bunch of people planning a vacation while sitting in a burning building. Great discussion though. Nice to see intelligent sharing is still around. Muchas Gracias Ya'll
Don’t forget the dust (regolith). It stick to everything, extremely abrasive to everything including insides of human bodies, AND it’s toxic.
An EVA on the space station - and (not) on Mars:
The ground support: "Grab your motorized tool (power drill), configure it for 5 turns left, torque setting 2". (These would have been multiple calls, I simplified it).
45 minutes later: (when on mars)
Astronaut to Earth ground support:
"It doesn't work".
45 minutes later:
"Oh, try it with torque setting 3".
The astronaut on Mars would have this up to 45 minutes delay from his question to the answer, the Earth ground support would also have this same 45 minutes delay between his answers to the astronaut and the response from the astronaut.
;-)
Yes, you both are right of course, they need to be able to do that on their own on Mars. Maybe test this on the Moon and on the station as long as the station is still up there.
I wish someone would land a rover next to Olympus Mons or Vallis Marineris so we can get some close up photos of them. Ever since I did a science project on these locations in 5th grade I've been waiting for someone to do this.
They are so big that a good photo is difficult. The summit of Olympus Mons is not visible from any point on the surface.
Heck, climb the darned thing and then take pictures...
(or is that humanly possible? It's what, 28,000 feet or so? Perfect afternoon stroll with your cart full of oxygen bottles....) 😅
oh this is so informative it must be seen by all thankyou to both Rick and Frasier Pass it on to all working in the Space industry and more
Love his confidence!
amazing interview. Your questions are very inquisitive and genuine.
Great content. I did observe that all of Rick's scenario planning seemed to presuppose that NASA will in complete control of the mission architecture and that none of the mission architectures he described seemed to include Starship. I'm pretty sure there is no way NASA can fund their own transportation for the Mars program. Hopefully, they are just being politically astute because there is no formal agreement for commercial involvment rather than being naive about their role.
Rick is awesome, haha
great interview. thank you
Question: Is it a possibility to have extendable glide wings (either pivot out or extend in a tubular extension design) that would allow a very long slow down process before actually landing?
Martian air is too thin for wings, especially on any craft big enough for humans.
Just 300 more years and we'll be on mars, i can't wait
It took the USA over 100 years to get to a couple hundred population. That is in a fertile land with everything needed to survive. Your prediction is about right.
Thanks for a brilliant interview with the Nasa Scientist. Mars getting there and staying. The problems good grief! And the dust storms, how long did you say they lasted?
Not for me mate, it all sounds too hostile!!
Rick Davis is not just a NASA scientist. He's also an astronaut that spent time on the ISS.
What a great conversation - refreshing and doable attitude.
"It's gonna be a yahoo ride... You're gonna be close to the ground... SCREAMING"
Looks like we need a new Mars show now to show us this landing in 4k... I think HBO is up in the rotation?
Great discussion/interview! Cheers.
Question: Mars will be the next celestial body humans step foot in, what do you think will be the next. Europa, Titan, Ganemede, Ceres? I assume Mercury/Venus are off the table for a while.
I think Venus is the most liveable plantet. Human will probably never step on the surface but it will be a lot easier to live on than Mars
Probably would be an asteroid for mining & creating habitats inside.
@@kristinehansen. dude, its so hot on venus metal melts, the pressure is 60 times our own, wtf you talking about.
@@tyronelannister9922 on the surface yes but we don't have to live on the surface. Up in the clouds it's pretty nice. Same gravity as Earth, same pressure, and nice temperature.
@@tyronelannister9922 NASA is already working on a high altitude blimp style mission for Venus. Still a hell of a lot of issues with the upper atmo comp that will make it harder than Mars
Loving this video. So fascinating. Thanks Fraser & Rick
Mars habitats could have passive air locks. Picture a J-shaped tunnel filled with liquid. The low end of the "J" is a pool inside the pressurized habitat, and the high end is a pool on the surface. You put on your space suit, go down a ladder or ramp to the bottom of the "J", then climb up to the high side, and your on the surface.
But surely the liquid would freeze or boil off, right? Not necessarily. I found an article on line where researches showed that very salty brine could stay liquid on the martian surface for years. But I think some sort of alcohol would be better since it would cleans any perchlorates off the suits of returning colonists.
Think of the mass savings if they don't have to bring a lot of massive air lock doors from Earth.
Sounds like a Delta P disaster waiting to happen. Underwater welding and maintenance is problematic enough on earth on things like oil rigs divers die all the time from that one hidden killer I'd imagine being an underwater welder in Mars is not gonna make it easier. Your method is similar to how welders work on these oil pipelines already and people have died when protocol isn't followed perfect or things fail. I remember one story where the divers were sucked into a pipe because of the timing involved with the plugs in the pipe which are meant to maintain the air pocket for the divers and the mishap basically made that air pocket catastrophically fail and they got sucked down the pipe.
Interesting idea.. seems possible. The water column necessary to hold the pressure would be 3 times the amount of mass over your head on earth. So a long vertical tunnel maybe 30 meters tall. I think the airlock door wins…
Hey not a bad guess! It’s 92.2 feet if the habitat is at 1 bar. Look up hydrostatic calculator to play around
Great Reporting Fraser. Thanks for having such an interesting guest in Rick Davis and Real topic covered on your show. Keep up the great work.
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it.
awesome talk. But I can't escape the feeling that building large space structures like O Neil cylinders "close" to earth would be safer and possibly faster. As a way of exploration and scientific discovery, planets and especially mars will always draw humans to advance our knowledge.
While O niel cylinders sound easier in theory. There are several problems that are not immediatly obvious, you need to assemble a massive amount of material in space to build it at a scale where it could be self-sustaining. This is going to be very expensive. There are als micro meteorites, radation, orbital decay and lost of complicated astroid harvesting and in space construction technology that needs to be developed. Personally I think both options are equally hard with there own pros and Cons.
Nobody dreams of living on an O'Neil cylinder though. You can't explore it and you'll never discover a new life form or anything else on it. It short O'Neill are boring!
Enjoyed the interview , I'm excited for us to get to mars. Keep up the good work my man, enjoy all your videos. 👍👍
What impact do you think asteroid mining will have on space exploration and quality of life?
Asteroid mining will luckily make colonization of most planets obsolete and noncompetitive. The colonization and exploitation of planets resources is like asteroid mining with extra steps. Beside research there is not much to get on planets that you can not also get in space.
@@Lionjsh thanks for sharing your opinion with me I definitely agree with agree you. Hopefully Fraser answers my question on Monday😊.
What an amazing conversation. It sheds light on the effort needed to plan a trip to Mars. Sometimes we the space enthusiasts are focused on the new shiny bauble like Starship without considering what it takes to send astronauts to another body; the moon or Mars.
Hi Fraser, what's the chance of US Space Force to attack the Chinese base on the south pole of the MOON right now as a prehenptise Strick and what are the logistics? We know the tech is out there but how it has to be done?
Excellent interview! 🙂
Nice video.
Fabulous interview. Thank you, Mr Cain and Mr Davis. The main things we will learn by humans going to Mars is about the challenges of getting to Mars, surviving there for a time, and coming back safely to earth. As far as studying the planet itself, what can hands-on science do more effectively and more cost effectively than will the next generations of robots?
Hi Fraser! Love your show. I had a question: you had mentioned building a Dyson sphere using Mercury for the material. If you were to be able to actually remove mercury would that not affect the other planets in the solar system and greatly change our planet’s orbit in the length of the astronomical unit? Thanks so much!
No.
@@bikerfirefarter7280 Thanks Fraser!
@@DaveWhiteInYoFace You're welcome!
@@bikerfirefarter7280 you’re the best Mr. Firefarter.
We've already removed Pluto🤣
This came out really good, fellas. Good chemistry. Easy to watch. Thank you
I knew a lot about Mars mission requirements already, but 41:15 was a surprise. Six is much better than three? Interesting.
Great interview! Seeing a Starship streaking across the sky sideways to catch more atmosphere would be wild!
Good talk, guys.
Very informative. Fraser, you’re a mensch. So is Rick.
Thank you.
Thanks, I'm really glad you enjoyed it.
Fascinating interview. I don't think Elon has thought it through. 😄 They will call the landing site Eden for sure. 👍
Elon's nothing but a greedy conman. He's not a "genius". He's not an engineer, he didn't "start PayPal" and he can't even code properly. All he's good at is conning money and failing upwards.
Early days in the plan to make humanity multiplanetary. Enormous success so far. Leapfrogged NASA with rocket technology and economics. Building Starlink to provide global communications and an international funding base for future development of the Mars program. First base to be named Bowie 🤔👍🏽
@@malcolmrickarby2313 'Bowie' is a good shout.
And the first ship must be captained by a Major Tom.
Fraser you're doing a really good job at your job
They should send starship with robots and a bigger drone to scout sites. Pick up the samples and the return. But no sense in sending humans all the way to mars and not land or step foot on the surface.
Some of the answers i hear for questions about lack of gravity, lack of contact, what are we going to do if something went wrong seem to be for the scenarios where agencies half-arse the first trips to Mars.
What would it take for average person to be able go to mars? What things that a astronaut would be useful for them on Mars ?
Space X with Starship are targeting at return trip of $100,000, or price of the average house (I've heard both) return for an individual. So I'd be tempted to sell up at 60 and head to Mars for a one way trip and try and help build the future.
I'm with ya Nico. I'd love to be one of the original people on Mars, at least I'd be remembered for something.
Dev, I'd think some advanced medical knowledge. Mechanical aptitude and electrical skills. The ability to know how to produce food would be helpful.
If you can't figure something out, there's always RUclips too. Haha
Thanks for this one, Frasier, Rick Davis is such an amazing and inspirational figure. He truly represents the best of NASA. Thoroughly delightful informative and enjoyable. I can't wait until your next interview with him.
How high do the dust storms go? If you put your solar power system near the top of a volcano would be be above the storms?
Not an expert but there is almost no atmosphere so I would say kilometres high.
Olympus goes right up into space , about 25 klicks above grade . A lot of wire to get the power back down , tho .
Suggestion for Rick and you: Don't have the camera look directly at the lights. The glare makes it tough to watch. It's better to have a brighter face and a darker background.
Why is it we do not send some kind of self sustainable greenhouses to Mars, perhaps something inflatable in plastic etc, with a robot or something inside to Mars?
Wouldn't that be very interesting to follow via video etc? And if we manage to hold plants alive in the greenhouses we can send a lot of them and have a source of food we we travel to the planet?
That's my thoughts too. Send like 5 fully loaded Starships there with plenty of robots to get things started so that when the first humans arrive, they can get right down to doing the science and other things robots can't or shouldn't do. Having to go there, get all that stuff ready upon arrival, doesn't make sense given we already have capable robots.
@@RickL_was_here You have this idea of our current robotics to be way more advanced than it is. Staged videos (Boston Dynamics) aside, our current best robots are stationary, working in factories and assembling stuff. And they still need humans in the mix for when random things go wrong outside of their control. Mars is an extreme environment, with more radiation, dust, and less heat, water, energy sources, that this problem is multiplied many fold. You'll need humans at least in orbit around Mars who can operate those robots without the time lag, and be there to troubleshoot before real problems arise. But, if humans are already in Mars orbit, may as well land them to help with those activities.
The robots don't need to be any more advanced than anything we already have. Not much more advanced than what we've already sent there.
This is an easy solution and if there ever comes an 'opportunity' for me to prove it, I'd gladly step up. I don't take no for an answer.
thanks for this awesome interview
SpaceX Starship is built to use the main motors as retro rockets along with the belly flop system. Landing rockets are high up on the sides to minimise dust generation.
Yes, they're planning to use that method for the moon landing, so it should be a well tested procedure by the time they land on Mars.
I'm glad he kept saying Fraser in case you forgot he was talking to you.
It seems crazy that we don’t have robotic arms on our rovers with some sort of “mars dust broom” to get all the dust off of the solar panels. Why don’t they?
The dust clings with static electricity, so you can't just wipe it off.
@@frasercain Just thinking out loud, but I'm old enough to have used a polonium brush to remove dust from photographic film. I'm sure the engineers involved would be aware of this effect. Does the metallic rover develop a net charge that's either positive or negative or does dust just develop both charges and stick?👾🤖👾
Fraser, I watched a video recently about that dust problem and no, it isn't a static issue, the Martian winds easily blows it off.
A small compressor would easily be a worthwhile addition to any rover. Or an antistatic 'snow' brush. Static is far from being the problem.
Wonderful interview. Thank you. 👍