Basically in the situation of BABA, what makes sense is massive buy backs... It seems they are doing some, but they should do 10 times more.. at least until share reaches 100 or so..
They are currently buying at a clip of 10% of all remaining shares outstanding per year. If they 10x this they would buy all shares (they only have ~33% of the cash required to do this). They are buying back basically as much as they reasonably can right now., so I don't think they need to change a thing.
It may have to do with the fear of recession in US resulting and cooldown towards AI tech. So we are seeing a rotation out from the AI stocks to other stocks. Divesting and derisking to "cheaper" China stock is happening. The market has already recognised BABA and JD that their revenue is likely to remain flat. The market is definitely less negative about these 2 stocks. I am however less positive about PDD but I will not elaborate further. However, the macro risk is still lurking around as the property slum is not over.
Seems like the market maybe worked out there's more to the stock than first glance shows once it opened. Keeping a midsize allocation and waiting to see if we get meaningfully rerated indefinitely.
Chi Keng, a lot of the Chinese stocks are heavily shorted. Their supply have been extremely and artificially inflated because of naked-shorting, which is the ART of artificially creating virtual supply. How will Alibaba and other Chinese companies and maybe the Chinese government fight this, especially for the ones listed in the US markets?
I totally disagree!!!! Baba enterprise value is &153 billion. Not $106 billion. We don’t calculate the cash flow based on the last 4 years cash flow! If this year is bad. Then the this year is bad. We still have to calculate it. What I’m missing here? You cannot take the cash out but not consider the debt and equivalent. But this is only my opinion that can be wrong and not to be taken as a financial advice.
I think you are missing his point. Let's assume they return 80b in a one off dividend. The debt is not worryingly high to reduce valuation of the business. The reason cash flow is low is because of investments and lots of changes in business and operations. These take time to become profitable. Therefore taking last 4 years as a benchmark is not unreasonable. Baba is not a declining business.
Thanks Tay..I am investor in China market from India ( It is a bit lonely here :) ) ...Just wanted your thoughts on miniso..their numbers look great however the blue orca report is concerning...any local market insights if something has changed post 2021?
I think the move in shares come also from the fiscal year results.. top Line 8% and bottom Line double digit growth ..does not look like a dying buisiness ..
There are only so many ways to say this is a generationally simple investment decision, and every quarter the core business is not contracting you're making big intrinsic value gains. If you're deathly afraid of regulatory risk or country risk just keep rolling 6-month puts at $55 or something.
Its opportunity cost. Not sure how many quarters this company need for proper turnaround? I am reallocating mine as deem fit. There are better fish out there. I am getting smaller on baba while waiting….
@@j.jutichod3307 "We find management’s reiteration that take rate (customer management revenue/gross merchandise volume) will pick up and that cloud revenue, excluding Alibaba’s consolidated subsidiaries, will return to double-digit growth in the second half of fiscal 2025 (ending March) encouraging."
when you are in a massive bear market and you have a lot of cash, thats when you have to deploy it, not the other way around, now is the best moment for alibaba to make use of that cash or at least a big chunk of it. I think alibaba is just pumping because china is pumping this days, will bottom again soon, the numbers are trash
Staying abreast of the latest trends and strategies is crucial for traders to stay ahead and make well-informed decisions. Beginners in trading and investing must recognize that success in these fields demands technical analysis, emotional maturity, and self-discipline. Thanks to Monica Lisa Payne insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
The assurances of growth are all good if the macro economic conditions stay the same. The truth is it will not. US Fed is going to cut rates. That will weaken the dollar against other currencies. It holds true for most of the customers in other countries that do business with BABA. If RMB strengthens, more customers will think twice purchasing their products. If they keep the price same in dollars, they lose money due to currency conversion. So, their 4% growth is gone if dollar falls by 4% compared to RMB.
What... Alibaba is mainly a domestic business. A stronger CNY is good for BABA Also the stock is priced to CNY because the vast majority of cash flow is in CNY, so if CNY appreciates, all else equal, you will get the currency boost in ADR price.
@@jayceh chinese people are not spending as much as they used to. The currency appreciates or depreciates compared to dollar doesn't matter in domestic sales. Which is why Taobao and Tmall is down 1%. It will continue to.go down. Unless they find another source of revenue. Its probably their cloud service. That depends on dollars directly or indirectly.
@@dstyro Chinese people aren't spending as much but online sales hit an all time high growing 8%? The Chinese economy is clearly in recession, which means it's only growing 4.5% a year. Growth is still growth though. This isn't a western economy so don't get it twisted.
Great job ! Thx for your time and effort ❤
First class work as always Chi Keng
@@Shounen_Maniathe man’s work is undervalued to say the least
Tay Chi Keng, cool content you deserve more views
'HEAD, SHOULDERS KNEES AND TOES...., KNEES AND TOES...'😅😅😅😂😂
A familiarity during my early parenthood...
Great video. Thank you!
Basically in the situation of BABA, what makes sense is massive buy backs... It seems they are doing some, but they should do 10 times more.. at least until share reaches 100 or so..
They are currently buying at a clip of 10% of all remaining shares outstanding per year. If they 10x this they would buy all shares (they only have ~33% of the cash required to do this). They are buying back basically as much as they reasonably can right now., so I don't think they need to change a thing.
Its a very strong sign of a trend reversal when bad news cant push the stock price any lower. Its time for BABA and HSI to shine!
LFG BABY
Normally. But China & Xi relations with the world are not normal.
It may have to do with the fear of recession in US resulting and cooldown towards AI tech. So we are seeing a rotation out from the AI stocks to other stocks. Divesting and derisking to "cheaper" China stock is happening. The market has already recognised BABA and JD that their revenue is likely to remain flat. The market is definitely less negative about these 2 stocks. I am however less positive about PDD but I will not elaborate further. However, the macro risk is still lurking around as the property slum is not over.
Seems like the market maybe worked out there's more to the stock than first glance shows once it opened. Keeping a midsize allocation and waiting to see if we get meaningfully rerated indefinitely.
Chi Keng, a lot of the Chinese stocks are heavily shorted. Their supply have been extremely and artificially inflated because of naked-shorting, which is the ART of artificially creating virtual supply. How will Alibaba and other Chinese companies and maybe the Chinese government fight this, especially for the ones listed in the US markets?
Bro thanks for the wonderful video , explains the stock price reversal
Thank you for the detail coverage! Huat ah
Nice thorough review
You should hold Babas next conference call for them
I totally disagree!!!!
Baba enterprise value is &153 billion. Not $106 billion.
We don’t calculate the cash flow based on the last 4 years cash flow!
If this year is bad. Then the this year is bad. We still have to calculate it.
What I’m missing here?
You cannot take the cash out but not consider the debt and equivalent.
But this is only my opinion that can be wrong and not to be taken as a financial advice.
I think you are missing his point. Let's assume they return 80b in a one off dividend. The debt is not worryingly high to reduce valuation of the business. The reason cash flow is low is because of investments and lots of changes in business and operations. These take time to become profitable. Therefore taking last 4 years as a benchmark is not unreasonable. Baba is not a declining business.
Thanks Tay..I am investor in China market from India ( It is a bit lonely here :) ) ...Just wanted your thoughts on miniso..their numbers look great however the blue orca report is concerning...any local market insights if something has changed post 2021?
MCHI 1300 shares at $42.05. Wish me good luck
I think the move in shares come also from the fiscal year results.. top Line 8% and bottom Line double digit growth ..does not look like a dying buisiness ..
any thoughts on PDD?
There are only so many ways to say this is a generationally simple investment decision, and every quarter the core business is not contracting you're making big intrinsic value gains.
If you're deathly afraid of regulatory risk or country risk just keep rolling 6-month puts at $55 or something.
Lets go JD! Number 1 in logistics, number 1 in customer service.
I do believe one day JD will surpass Alibaba and be the biggest eCommerce company in China by marketshare.
Interesting that they got away with not mentioning anything about ANT financial on the earnings call.
Its opportunity cost. Not sure how many quarters this company need for proper turnaround? I am reallocating mine as deem fit. There are better fish out there. I am getting smaller on baba while waiting….
“Their long-@$$ discussions” 😂😂😂
This guy is the biggest baba bull. Baba will start rising when this guy sells his bag and gave up
When market afraid, you buy. When market is optimistic, you sell. Simple la, not rocket science.
management expects double-digit growth post-2025, that's the reason the stock is moving up.
that cloud growth isn't it?
@@j.jutichod3307 "We find management’s reiteration that take rate (customer management revenue/gross merchandise volume) will pick up and that cloud revenue, excluding Alibaba’s consolidated subsidiaries, will return to double-digit growth in the second half of fiscal 2025 (ending March) encouraging."
A bit slower talk would improve the understanding vastly. I'm tiered halfway through.
I'm listening at 1.5speed and still perfectly fine
I also listen at 1.5x speed and can follow him fine. You could reduce playback speed if it is too fast for you.
Good video. Thank you.
Haha. Market gave up on baba liao. It’s like .. whatever la..
🤣
excellent analysis
Amazing earning analysis, as always!👍
Big ups today wha gwan
when you are in a massive bear market and you have a lot of cash, thats when you have to deploy it, not the other way around, now is the best moment for alibaba to make use of that cash or at least a big chunk of it. I think alibaba is just pumping because china is pumping this days, will bottom again soon, the numbers are trash
Michael Burry increase Alibaba stakes
See you on the moon!
Baba boy!
Staying abreast of the latest trends and strategies is crucial for traders to stay ahead and make well-informed decisions. Beginners in trading and investing must recognize that success in these fields demands technical analysis, emotional maturity, and self-discipline. Thanks to Monica Lisa Payne insights, daily trade signals, and my dedication to learning, I've been increasing my daily earnings. Kudos to the journey ahead!
erNameIs Monica Lisa Payne, cant divulge much. Most likely, the internet should have her basic info, you can research if you like
The assurances of growth are all good if the macro economic conditions stay the same. The truth is it will not. US Fed is going to cut rates. That will weaken the dollar against other currencies. It holds true for most of the customers in other countries that do business with BABA. If RMB strengthens, more customers will think twice purchasing their products. If they keep the price same in dollars, they lose money due to currency conversion. So, their 4% growth is gone if dollar falls by 4% compared to RMB.
RMB is under pressure to depreciate.
@@Stat8989 what are those pressures?
What... Alibaba is mainly a domestic business. A stronger CNY is good for BABA
Also the stock is priced to CNY because the vast majority of cash flow is in CNY, so if CNY appreciates, all else equal, you will get the currency boost in ADR price.
@@jayceh chinese people are not spending as much as they used to. The currency appreciates or depreciates compared to dollar doesn't matter in domestic sales. Which is why Taobao and Tmall is down 1%. It will continue to.go down. Unless they find another source of revenue. Its probably their cloud service. That depends on dollars directly or indirectly.
@@dstyro Chinese people aren't spending as much but online sales hit an all time high growing 8%?
The Chinese economy is clearly in recession, which means it's only growing 4.5% a year.
Growth is still growth though. This isn't a western economy so don't get it twisted.
Again, stay away.