Most airlines can't fly Sukhoi aircraft due to sanctions and COMAC is producing roughly 3 C919s a year meaning that they can't fill this gap.@@michalandrejmolnar3715
@@michalandrejmolnar3715 The Superjet's turbofan is a joint venture between a French company and a Russian one. With the sanctions the Superjet is effectively dead until they can develop a competitive, indigenous powerplant. Even then, they will not get a type certificate from the FAA or EASA, so it will limit sales to non-aligned countries, or allies of Russia, and they won't be able to fly into the counties that rely on those agencies. As for the C919.. maybe a small dent? It's not seen any orders outside mainland China though. We're still many years away from breaking the duopoly.
For these new airplanes their support and infrastructure to support operators is unproven and for the Supernet was very poor in the beginning. Competition is good, but look what happened to Bombardier with their CSeries…
It's interesting to see how many diverse factors interact in such different ways to make aviation the complex field that it is. It amazes me when news reporters believe they can do investigative analysis and reporting on an issue, incident or accident, without the appropriate and necessary education needed to understand the field, or guidance from someone with such education and understanding. Using common sense as a substitute, they believe they have or can easily acquire competence in the subject matter and produce an erroneous story or analysis that unfortunately makes sense to those who are also only equipped with common sense. And since the erroneous information seems to make sense, it is easily believed to be true-which is an absolutely appalling result! The human mind is not designed for unlearning, so miseducating an unsuspecting, inquiring mind that is eager to learn should be a capital offense. There are many pilots who pretend competence in areas where they have none but similarly believe that common sense will do to fill in the blanks, and thus contribute to the spread of misinformation. You stick to subjects you are competent in, generally decline to speculate when facts are missing, clearly state when you do speculate, and make the effort to educate yourself on unfamiliar topics or technology that are unavoidably involved in a scenario before you produce the video. Your videos may entertain some people and put others to sleep; they may excite, inspire, bore or terrify, but they ALWAYS educate the viewer, even if only subconsciously. Thank you for striving-to the best of your ability-to educate responsibly, with integrity and the truth.
Airlines have always walked on shaky ground. I feared buying stock in them, I saw TWA and Pan AM come & go. Braniff, Eastern all lost . My family worked for these and they were never certain if they would be working next shift.
@@petep.2092 You have explained most of why I disdain journalism majors as journalists. Reporting magazines should hire from the discipline they intend to report on. Petter is definitely knowledgeable in the field he is reporting on.
The biggest issue I see that is directly affecting safety is alot of seasoned aircraft mechanics may have taken early retirement during pandemic without having replacements for their positions. Advancement through seniority / qualifications has a trickle down effect. No one to fill the position they left equates to spreading that workload or worse the advancements now came with double the workload. Which as we know very well from mentour , fatigue breeds mistakes. Just an observation.
Yep this is the case where I work - we're down to about 1/2 the number of mechanics vs pre pandemic and management gets pissy when the checks take twice as long... and yet they still refuse to train up replacements or offer pay rises to keep people...
I find it odd how a lot of pilots tend to seemingly ignore or gloss over this issue. You make time for maintenance or the maintenance will force you to make time for it. There is no getting around it. Without maintenance it doesn't matter how short you are on pilots or planes if the ones you have can't even get off the ground because the maintenance backlog is too great for the current maintenance and logistics system to handle. The fact that so many prominent people with a voice in the industry are virtually silent on this issue says how much maintenance is taken for granted. The industry desperately needs more mechanics (or engineers depending on your country) which is why I encourage people to consider it as a career option. It's one of the coolest jobs in the world besides actually flying.
Skilled labour shortages occur in part due to low wages . Not only in aircraft maintenance but through out manufacturing skilled labour is badly paid ( your remarks on supply/ demand don’t always apply ). Young people prefer jobs with regular hours and quick payback . In the specific case of aircraft maintenance there’s an extra emphasis on responsibility where your actions can mean the difference between life and death . Stacking shelves at the super seems more attractive for the same money .
Living in Alaska I find myself a fairly frequent flier, around 40,000 miles a year. Because of this I have an above average interest in aviation because a decent part of my life is affected by it. I find your videos fascinating and thought provoking. Not only have I gained an appreciation for what the pilots and crew are doing during a flight, but also an understanding of what and how they are thinking during a flight. Thanks for shedding light on how airlines are thinking. It often feels like magic is happening when I walk on a airplane and transport to another time zone and location, the reality is, behind the curtain there are so many smart people working to keep the show going. Thanks for taking the time to show us how some of it works!!!!
Hi Peter, the one thing that makes you stand out from others, is that aside from being very informative for people like me that love flying and wish i would do more, is that you talk to us like if we are your friend, you explain when needed and keep it factual. I need to also compliment you and your team for the production of the great visual content as well, it feels like this is your primary job :D
I'm an engineer with a background in supply chain and project management. Our current economic model is not viable. By that, I mean every company tries to "trim the fat" to be more competitive. This works great until something unexpected happens, then there's no margins. Think about flying 20 years ago. It was rare for an airplane to be full - it was routine for aircraft to fly halfway empty from a passenger perspective. Now, we've optimized both the number of aircraft and ticket prices around aircraft being mostly full. That's great until anything significant changes. Then, something has to give.
They are full and charging top price. Still 1.5x the pre pandemic price to Asia and Australia from the UK. Flights with Asia are double the price of pre pandemic, same in Europe.
Thank you! 20 years ago more aircraft flew with premium seating than they do now... and airlines could afford to have some empty seats, if the front of the aircraft was full or nearly full. But we could well see many airlines moving back towards that model in the next few years -- to create a bit of a margin, as you put it.
To me, half empty planes are a sign of sickness in society. Flying is harmful enough to the climate when optimised; why doubling the footprint per passenger by hauling empty seats around?
Peter, a trip down to Teruel to check on the storage of planes and/or the recycling process would be very interesting and informative. And it is close by.
Same thing happened in Poland/Romania (although less dradtic) as when Romanian airline Blue Air got into serious trouble and was forced to suspend operations, it's 5 737 MAX8s were transferred to LOT Polish Airlines within a month by lessors. True, by that time it was already known that Blue Air will have to at least downsize it's fleet, and LOT was already operating the type, but still it went really fast.
It's funny how only former or current Boeing employees seem to be commenting on social media (assuming this site qualifies as social media). The Airbus employees must be too busy making planes.
Qatar Airways leased some off of Cathay Pacific, so there’s still Chinese text even on their premium class seats where they mostly just changed the upholstery to their trademark maroon colors.
An Australian airline has wet leased aircraft from Finnair. That makes sense as Finnair's operations have been cut back because of the war, while aviation in Australia is booming.
Thanks, Petter. Once again a thorough, cogent and understandable explanation of a complex situation. I suspect your training as a pilot and experience as a pilot trainer has a lot to do with the logical and methodical approach you take in all your videos - I often feel like you're walking me through a checklist so can get this stuff through my thick head. Kudos too, to the team you have producing these spots, the quality is awesome. Cheers, mate.
@@MentourNow and so you should be, Petter... You all do a great job! I've just sat watching this episode during my lunch break. As always, I just know I'm going to come away more informed, and enjoying aviation even more!
According to the bean counters maintenance is a waste of time and a loss of profit . Fly the heap of junk until it falls from the sky ( with many souls on board ) and pay the victims family a pittance . We’ve run through all the numbers and we still turn a profit .
Honestly really hoping that this will help people push for more land-based transportation systems like trains, night/sleeper trains and high speed rail along many routes. Really good to have options and seeing as most of the aircrafts needed wouldn’t be able to be built until the 2030s, I’d say that’s just enough time to build all this needed infrastructure
That's all very well but some countries are huge, in fact continents in their own right and without the funds for high speed rail links, unfortunately. Being an island also makes it impossible to travel overseas without aircraft as sea travel per se is no longer an option.
@@cathybrowning2310a modern high speed train can reach speeds in excess of 500km/h. They can carry 10x the passengers of a plane and require no check in. Sure, if you are going from the west to the east coast then the plane will be faster, but there is no reason why anyone would be to fly shorter journeys if trains are around. Yes, they are expensive but compared to all alternatives a steal.
Late 2030s will finally bring forth recognition of a global energy depletion. Many govt and investment entities research has stated as such. Without the base energy needed for mentioned, success is distant if not fatal.
@MetalMachine131 top speed of a high speed train can't be maintained continuously due to track layout to accout for terrain. That 500 kmph can't be maintained through out the entire run of the track.
@@cathybrowning2310 Right, but the most populous countries in the world are not islands. Additionally, China is a HUGE country with a lot of terrain and they have managed many many high speed rail links.
I'm so happy to see you talking about a airline from my country, Brazil! I have flown many time with both gol and latam. Love your videos! Keep up with this awesome videos!
FYI, the graphic at 15:35 and 15:41 says "38 aircraft per year" which is incorrect based off the picture of a document immediately following that says a more realistic "38 per month". Likely somebody got confuddled with stating of "monthly output at 38 aircraft earlier this year" around the time of the first text.
Super-neat video, as all of your work has been. I like the format where you are sitting down, engaging with the camera. Having the table between you and the camera blocks some of your great energy.
Where are the spare parts though? What about trained maintenance personnel, pilots and cabin crew? That stuff doesn't grow on trees, nevermind the fuel these hogs tend to use.
@@MentourNowThat would be a good episode topic - how hard is it to bring a mothballed aircraft back into service, and why don’t we see it happen more often?
"Nobody likes going for the nuclear option when a friendlier option is available" So diplomatically well said. Thank you, and for well researched information.
It would be a situation in which there's an opening for a new player to enter the market, as you were talking about in your other video--except that it takes so long to design, build and certify a new commercial aircraft. It would be years before anything really appears, by which time the situation could have completely changed. I do see an opening here for alternatives to aviation, where they exist. When airline tickets can no longer be competitive, trains look more attractive for short- to medium-haul travel inside a continent.
Trains are quite problematic for international travel outside of the Schengen area. It comes down to security and immigration processes. Generally, you need a visa and have to go through immigration process, which simply doesn't exist at train stations. To get international trains to work, you need to also convince the governments to establish immigration processes outside of airports. This is especially problematic in Asia where there are many international but intra-continental flights. NA I believe would be the same. Can you go from US to Canada without crossing immigration? I don't know (because I don't live there) but if not, I bet it won't work there either This also affects the segment of the market most susceptible to prices: tourists. If business travel needs to happen and airplane is the best way to go, it will happen regardless of the cost. Tourists will often look for other options, who often also look for international travel
@@elina35462 No, the US Canada border used to be something you might casually ignore in rural areas, but after 9/11 they added a lot of sensors and the US got really unfriendly. In Derby Line neighbors on opposite sides of the road can't even cross the road to talk to their friends without CBP arriving like the Gestapo searching for spies. There are trains that cross the border though, they work as well as international trains did in Europe before the EEC became the EU. Not that big a problem.
@@elina35462 there's a whole bunch of international train services in Asia, especially between Thailand, Laos and Malaysia. There's also a *lot* of international bus routes in Asia, and yes, these services have immigration processes at the stations & bus depots. To your point of needing to "convince the governments to establish immigration processes outside of airports", the vast majority of (if not all) countries with a coast have immigration processes at their ports, and most landlocked countries outside of the Schengen area also have immigration at their land borders. This isn't new, or difficult, to establish, international travel was primarily done by train, boat, or bus prior to the jet era.
@@cageordie My family made an annual car/ferry trip to Canada every year, both before and after 9/11. We passed through Port Angeles, WA, and up until 9/11, you only had to show a form of ID, like a driver's license, to cross the border. You didn't even need to show a passport.
@@hannahp1108 Right, on the Coho. I've done that several times, first time with my mother and brother. A few times after that with other people or alone. As an immigrant I never really had the option of using my California driver's license. Most times US CBP are still unfriendly and Canadian immigration are still as friendly as ever. The only time Canadian immigration was being evil was when the US CBP decided to be assholes to Canadians and 'work to rule'. Canadians can take a hint and immediately did the same, so all US passport holders got the full treatment. I met this at Niagara falls in March 1988. One of their supervisors came down the line asking for ID, when he saw our UK passports he told us to pull out of the line and 'welcome to Canada'. Now I have Nexus and the US entry is easier.
I'm sorry, but I don't remember 2 Airbus crashing and a door opening during flight. Or a landing wheel detaching from the plan Of course Airbus planes has issues, but Boeing has been proven to cutting corners in their planes. The issues that Boeing has and the issues that Airbus has are not at the same level
@@James-xs9mn Well, according to the FAA Boeing IS bad, so what's your point? Many people feel that Boeing deserves to be bashed for ruthlessly putting the safety of passengers worldwide to risk by cutting corners everywhere in the manufacturing and quality control processes for the sake of higher profits, also known as GREED.
This is true, but Boeing is the only aircraft manufacturer that currently has an incredibly negative public perception issue which makes their products very unattractive at the moment.
Before Norwegian airlines filed for bankruptcy, they had flights from Providence Rhode Island direct to Cork Ireland. They had the 787 dream liners, and it was wonderful! Worst thing to happen to me was when they dropped all the overhaul flights when they had to file for bankruptcy. Very frustrating how all this disruption with airlines has taken place, for the airlines, employees and customers!
At Kimble airport in 21/22 it was full to bursting with A330s, A340s, 747s, 757s 767s and older 737s and A320 families. There was so many of them they ran out of room!
Singapore Airlines have put 12 of their 19 A380s back into service when they were all slated for retirement even per-pandemic. The new planes that were supposed to replace them just aren't arriving fast enough. Which is cool given they were all sitting looking very forlorn at Changi when I was traveling in July 2021.
Props (pun not intended) to the airlines that recognised the pandemic wouldn't last forever and snapped up older aircraft while they were super cheap. In Australia one of our regional airlines bought a bunch of old 737s during the pandemic which enabled them to start flying major domestic routes when the pandemic ended, while our other budget airlines were forced to shut down. Huge brain move, tbh.
@@Taykorjg Probably yes, there are a scary number of people that think if line go up, it go up forever, and on the flip side, if line go down, line go down forever.
@@Taykorjg Honestly, with the way airlines were selling off planes, I think they at least thought international travel wouldn't be so popular for a good while
This shortage is something we are going to endure for quite some time. As your previous videos pointed out, there is a duopoly when several aircraft manufacturers would be profitable, except for the immense startup costs and rocket science expertise required. Another shortage is airport gates. This in turn, especially in the USA, is causing too fast a pace of landings & takeoffs as is evident in all the near misses lately.
Sounds like it's time to start investing in high speed rail in North America. With steadily rising ticket prices there is possibly a viable market for alternatives to air travel developing.
To my limited knowledge, NA can start at least investing into normal rail first, AFAIK it is mostly used for cargo, passenger traffic on trains is very limited.
Yes. The "high speed rail" project in CA has worked so well. $100 Billion spent with not one mile of actual track put down. Another rip off to the gullible tax payers.
Just think about the sheer cost of developing a network in the US that would have even the tiniest impact on flight demand….I’d put the likelihood of it happening at zero.
Great channel. Always fascinating. By far, the best of its type on the internet. Notwithstanding this, please let's ditch the background music. It's low volume but it interferes with my hearing deficit and causes a buzzing which makes following what u r saying very difficult.
They used to fly wide bodies on domestic routes. I remember flying direct on DC10 between Chicago and Detroit - two 737s worth of passengers on one plane. Now they fly only narrow bodies and a ton of tiny Embraers and CRJs and no wide bodies. And all those flights are full and often overbooked. American routinely asks on its app during check-in what price you'd be willing to take an alternative flight. Record numbers of passengers airlines insist on moving with small planes. No wonder they don't have enough aircraft. It's a self-inflicted problem that has less to do with the lack of new airplanes and more to do with the airlines' business model and squeezing maximum profits.
Right, but airlines still do fly wide bodies, especially on longer and popular routes such as LAX-JFK; typically transcon. But I know what you mean even PSA was flying a L-1011 on short routes. Do you think it’s because customers and the market prefer having more frequency over anything else? Hence the shift to narrow bodies? Also, airlines are typically conservative. If they invest now in bringing back old wide bodies or older planes from the graveyard and the economy tanks, they are probably hesitant to do so. Many have huge debt on their balance sheets…
@@Bungle-UK Airlines don't care about what the market wants. If they did, we wouldn't be stuffed like sardines into seats separated from the row in front by the length of a petite woman's femur. Going on standby used to be an easy option. These days flights are so full you can forget about it. Frequency can also mean congestion. Even minor disruptions can turn the whole system into hell, as connecting flights are missed or crews time out.
@@brunellom8914 I can't even remember the last time I flew direct from IAD to the the West Coast. Everything is a connection somewhere in the middle. Frequency is great until some disruption screws the whole thing up. Flights are full, and finding a seat due to a missed connection can be a nightmare. It wasn't that long ago when I had to stay overnight in Denver, and my only option for another flight was the same flight the next day, which was at 18:00. Going standby on earlier flights wasn't an option as they were all full.
@@jeffn8218 I think the airlines understand exactly what the market wants. Like everything else, they want it cheap as possible. If you look at the BTS.gov airfare comparison a 1995 average round trip ticket adjusted to 2023 dollars is $200 higher than today. So for those masses that want to travel cheaper than in the past the'll get that crammed in experience. If you want space you can certainly have it, but you'll have to pay.
last I heard, both Boeing and Airbus had 8-10 year backlogs on orders and it's very rare to exceed planned production. If anything, supplier issues and labor issues tend to push things the other way from time to time.
Boeing can't produce close to what they committed to anymore. This is the end result of their attacks on their own engineering staff and their cost cutting.
@@calvinlomax9546 Probably would have been wiser to cleansheet a new aircraft rather than extend the 737. They've had a pretty consistent pattern the last couple of decades of making decisions like that, though. For instance, the Li Ion batteries in the dreamliner would have pushed its commercial availability back 12-18 months if they had chosen to re-spec on Li Polymer as the problems with Li Ion became known. Having asked some of their engineers about that 10-15 years ago, they balked at the idea of jeopardizing the timeline of a rollout, even after seeing the 2013 grounding.
@@alan_davis True. But kind of moot to the point I was making... that they have 8-10 years worth of orders so if an airline today decided they want a new 737 max or 320 neo and place the order right now, best case scenario is they'll be able to take delivery around 2032-2035. And if there's a labor strike, grounding, supply chain failure or anything of that nature, it's not going to shorten that wait.
the thing about looking at today's news to decide if there is a market for pilot is is that the development time for a pilot is longer than a day. so if a person starts the process of becoming a pilot today, while hires are on hold, the market will have changed by the time they have enough experience to get the job.
Yes, that’s likely true. It’s always going to be a bet on the future to start training but I think now, and the last few years, have been a great opportunity.
For airlines companies, this option are the fastest way to get an new plane. Such as when Malaysia Airlines acquired ex-SAS A350 last year during SAS "reconstruction".
SO Cool to see Flair Airlines’s on mentour now. I work for them and was on one of the planes when it got seized. And I promise you those planes were 1000% seized with the intention of getting an almost 50% higher yielding lease by the lessors. It’s still nowhere near settled. Crazy times
As a Canadian, I am very aware of Flair. They did not give the public any confidence that they would survive. Canada has few internal airlines and many startups have ceased operations from one minute to the next. Canada 300, Greyhound, Roots, Zoom, HawkAir, Harmony, CanJet, Jetsgo, Swanberg, and Sky regional are all arilies in Canada that ceased operations and left people hanging in the last 25 years. I was to fly to Calgary and needed a very cheap last-minute flight but Flair was not an option because it was clear the company was in serious financial problems before they lost their planes. I flew on the slightly less dodgy Lynx, though Lynx went down in February and Flair is still flying Flair's attack on the leasers was only a diversion from how bad a situation they were in as an airline. I would not fly with them because I would not be certain they will be operating when my trip was planned or that I would get back.
My brother was to fly on Lynx when it went belly up. Fortunately he got a refund. I refuse to fly on Flair after hearing they owe tens of millions in taxes to the Canada Revenue Agency. They could get shut down at any time. Unfortunately, that leaves us Canadians with Air Canada and Westjet. Ughh
@@kuyag68 Porter is a big player now, I'd say they should go all in on Embraer and order even more than the 50 they have, they have public confidence and could easily kill WestJet off if they play their cards right, maybe see if they can get Embraer to make a widebody? a man can dream.
I don't often comment on Mentour Now videos, but they're always well presented and I love seeing the economic side of the aviation industry. Sad face for increased ticket prices (been seeing it for a while now), but that's the world now, and paying a bit more doesn't seem so bad compared to having your plane snatched by the repo guys. Thanks for the video!
I put a large portion of the issues we are seeing at the feet of the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. As they have become effectively the only companies in the market they have no incentive to actually produce on time, at volume, or produce a quality product that is affordable.
I would be interested in your making a video (if you already have, I have missed it) on demand vs supply of planes an pilots in history, present and future. Market developments, manufacturing and education developments, and their causes. If you start with the Boeing 247 it could even become a long and interesting series!
It shouidl be noted that when Air Canada went CCAA/Chapter 11 circa 2003/2004, it managed to renegotiate leases downward significantly. After emerging from CCAA, it was able to sell at a profit its fleet of A340s because of the very lease negotiated during bankruptcy.
When I was in Brazil this January I was surprised how full to the brim the LATAM flights are. Even the short "bus" routes between Rio and Sao Paolo - the boarding and deboarding of passengers in those A320s takes seemingly longer time than the actual flight.
Strange GOL didn’t get on the Embraer bandwagon. Between less backlog, a reputable aircraft, and I’d imagine competitive prices given a bulk order, I’m surprised they haven’t any already.
The pandemic hit the whole world quickly but the passengers came back quickly after two years. The September 11, 2001 airline shock hit even more quickly, although primarily in the USA. These wild changes in demand and supply have consequences all throughout the industry.
You really are going crazy with those thumbnails. Just as a heads up, this one really made me think "what the hell is YT recommending to me?" Maybe it's worth going back to your usual ones...
I decided to watch the video despite the thumbnail because I recognized the channel, but a pure white text on black background might have been more enticing to me...
@@MentourNow I'm happy to learn that it is a test. I guess these comments could be useful for understanding whatever data you collect (e.g. "the thumbnail gets promoted and brings in new viewers, while previous viewers know what to expect and aren't scared away". I hate to admit that the thumbnail did grab my attention, so it did it's job. However, I would have expected a more sensationalist and less informative video and therefore watched something else instead if I didn't know the channel already. So well done on getting both my initial attention and some recommendations boosting comments from the thumbnail. And good luck with the experiment!
A tragicomical parallell to the health care professionals shortage that we have seen for a while now. I don't think that "leasing" can in the long run be less costly that having an employed personnel, or owning the aircraft. With leasing you pay for the convenience of "not having to care" about one aspect of your business. But... that aspect still has to be cared for, it's still there. And as the lessors then sets the price... a price you _will_ have to pay... The "lesser cost" that is initially seen, by not having employees, or a "quickly depreciating in value inventory", soon turns into a bottomless pit, as you find yourself "at the mercy" of the lessors. And you will have to continue to lease, as everyone are now fully aware that being a lessor, is financially better than being an employee. Thus the number of people willing to be actually employed, decrease. There is also a facet of responsibility to consider. Who is responsible, and for what. A big facet. It becomes a bit of a Catch 22 situation, once you fire your employees, or sell your aircraft, to instead lease them. In order to "get back to operations a was", you have to make a substantial investment, far greater than the gains from the "cost cut", that tempted you in the first place. You are stuck, and can only hope that others makes mistakes, allowing you to get ahead. When you make your business dependent on lessors, focus shifts from providing the customer/patient with good service, to paying the lessors. Ever since small pieces of silver started to be used to alleviate the problem of having to bring two chickens and a bag of herbs with you, everytime that you went to get your hair cut; there has been people who has realised, that "shaving of small slice" from that piece of silver, is deplorably easy.
Well if you would not have the financing to buy the planes even with the planes as the collateral, thats what you do. I do wonder how many of them lease the crews and boarding personnel as well. It becomes like just a marketing effort after that, just a branding thing with multiple brands running business of same lease companies - an illusion of choice.
Sadly the pandemic showed us as well that you can't finish a pandemic like this. It is still around, still hampering staff. The supply chain issues are still there. We also see the effects of long covid, people exit the work force very quickly because they can't work. So this also adds to the situation.
One thing not mentioned is the transition from the hub and spoke model to point to point airfare. This requires vastly more midsize planes to fulfill these routes, while also rendering older wide-bodies too expensive to operate. With a hub and spoke model, the long legs of a flight fly less frequently on larger aircraft, while the shorter legs allow the smaller regional planes to make multiple trips per day, effectively allowing one plane to fly most of the journey on multiple routes. Point to point eliminates this "ride sharing", and increases the number of dedicated plane service hours per passenger mile, leading to more planes being necessary. Of course, the industry understands this and that's why production of these refreshed midsize planes was ramping up, and airlines were already in the process of retiring their older planes... Right as the pandemic happened. Unfortunately it's not as simple as just scaling production to make up for the delay, because those production facilities are ungodly expensive and take forever to build, so they can't easily risk overbuilding them - there is the threat that once the artificial demand created by the backlog is fulfilled, there will be a return to the normal growth and replacement cycle, leaving those facilities empty, never managing to even pay for themselves. All of those beans were counted when the aircraft orders were made in the first place, and they can't simply raise the price to account for the increased scale, either.
Its good that you work from home. Its good that you can get up at midnight, wear your favorite night atire, turn on the camera and do a clip. Love the neat hair style.
I was wondering mentour, have u ever thought of posting videos of your favorite flights that you do in real life but on MSFS on here and explain why you like them so much?
Well, I work at an airport, and I see some of these older jets kept flying by a certain airline. The huge majority of these are of the 320 family, and many are in sad shape. I mean aesthetically, of course. They are so old that the airline will not repaint them as it’s not cost-efficient. Most of these will probably be retired soon. Are they still flying because of a shortage of aircraft? I think this video answered that.
I thought the airlines had solved their problems by charging extra for everything like checking bags, meals, seat choice, rescheduling or cancellation.
Due to this fuel type transition from the current standard to the next one which ever it may be, from what I understand Boeing and Airbus are holding back their next gen aircrafts from being developed until the market figures out which standard it will choose. I get that Boeing is having issues and can't really take risks at the moment, but Airbus should be able to scale up production, sure its a chain of production so it has to be a coordinated move but the demand is there so why not? If it really is them holding back for future developments, what happens if the technological development hits a roadblock and gets delayed, will the whole market pay for increasing demands?
Airbus clearly stated in their yearly press conference this year that the plan for the A320 successor is to be 100% SAF capable. No more than that for the moment. The thing with production lines is always the question, what to do with it when production ends. Also, Airbus themself could produce more aircraft than they do at the moment, especially A32x NEOs. The problem are the subcontractors. They can't produce certain components fast enough.
@@guidowinter2478 Not in this case. According to OED, the earliest known use of the noun goal is in the Middle English period (1150-1500). The word "gol" was borrowed from the English language.
Was passing through there 2 weeks ago. All those planes are for sale or scrap. Thai airways has absorbed its budget offshoot Thai Smile and its using their A320s on a lot of their regional roots. They gave up flying their superb A380s which I loved for their economy cabin at the back on the top deck. All 350s on their long haul routes now.
So, airlines got rid of the hub-and-spoke model, to please customers that don’t want layovers. However, will we see more of this habit being backpedaled with the aircraft shortage? Like, are we going to see a brief return of the A380 or 747 to fill the demand on the long-distance routes if airlines can’t get their hands on aircraft like the 787 or 777? Or is this a golden opportunity for Embraer and Mitsubishi (taken over Bombardier’s CRJ program) to conquer back a part of the market?
Did airlines believe during the pandemic, that the people would not fly again as soon as it would be possible? The people got hungry for vacations far away, of course they wanted to travel as soon as it was possible again. I had no doubts that this would happen. Just... I didn't know when it would restart again. But with the arrival of Omicron and the first waves with little effect to the hospitals, it was clear, that the pandemic was going down in the next months and far travels would be commonplace like before... And so it happened. And then everyone was surprised, that the people wanted to travel again, no one was prepared... ;-)
The 4 seized Flair 737's were moved to a small airport north of Toronto Canada and were sitting there for months (I will have to go by and check to see if they are still there) I was shocked that they were not immediately remarketed given the shortages. There are no other commercial jets at this airport and they are very obvious. Unless Flair obtained a legal judgement to prevent them from being leased to someone else the claim that they found a better Lessee would seem to be without merit.
That reminds me of a similar situation of go first airline in India, due to bankruptcy protection lessors are unable to reposition their very much in demand A320NEO aircraft..... But there's a catch - most of those aircraft are PW GTF so that decreases their attractiveness a little bit
My home country, Indonesia is also experience aircraft shortage from a few months ago until now and as of March 18th 2024, Indonesia has a total of 648 aircraft and 566 aircraft are commercial aircraft
Well, if the industry insists on scrapping relatively young and still viable aeroplanes no wonder there is a shortage. They only have themselves to blame. But never mind, eh? They can always stick up the ticket prices and thus pass the problem to their customers.
Shortsightedness, corporate greed and the focus on the next quarter earning calls all point to having liquid assets as a negative for all industries, meaning airlines won’t hire pilots until they have the aircraft to fly, so when the airplanes finally arrive they won’t have the pilots to fly them. Same for the manufacturers: they won’t make new aircraft until they have the orders, so when the orders arrive they have no resources to build the aircraft. Add to that regulatory ass-covering and a reactive culture, as opposed to a proactive one, in the regulatory bodies and you have the perfect storm. Any tiny ripple can cause tsunamis with cascade effects that last for years and ruin the lives of thousands of workers, who get laid off, underpaid, furloughed, mistreated, overworked and then blamed when the inevitable accident happens. Good job, corporate culture!
Perfectly said and completely correct on all counts. JIT (just in time) anything has destroyed stability in industry and ruined countless people’s lives. It has done wonders for my investment portfolio but I would happy with a more modest return if my fellow human beings lives were not being ruined. And please don’t tell me I am part of the problem because I invest. I have the right to secure my family’s future. I don’t have enough shares of any stock to make a difference but I always vote for LONG TERM stability over short term profits.
@@AndrewSteitz you’re not part of the problem: investing long term is betting on the value of a company, and I don’t mean the strictly economic value. Intangibles are as important as cash flow RoI, RoE and all the other metrics financiers use. Sadly, in this short-term-profit driven markets, speculators, short sellers and bots gained the upper hand years go, leaving us small investors with little choice
I've noticed this year that flight costs to Europe from the UK have become stupid, EasyJet wanted over £700 for 2 people to fly to Palma or Alicante in May!. I can fly long haul for not much more on a nice more comfortable and pleasant airline, so this year, there will be no European trip
I can certainly see how this is becoming a perfect storm for the industry,not helped by the supply chain problems & the loss of personnel across the board. We are struggling at EZY with a lack of crews especially with correct qualifications & experience. Many left or went part time. Equally our fleet is ageing & we have a number of AOG every day. The only answer is to cap capacity severely & encourage other moves of transport usage which brings it's own problems as we saw here in the UK at Easter. Methinks we are in for a bumpy few years until at least 2038 even without another war or economic crisis.
With only 2 major aircraft manufactures in the western world they have a strong motivation to not fix their production shortfalls. If they decrease the supply of aircraft they can drive their profits even higher.
@@davidhoffman1278 Extreamly strange birds. I think it is some fault in the animation, but I don't see how this type of glitch can happen neither how the animator didn't see and fix it.
I remember distinctly during the pandemic when they were mothballing older planes that it seemed short sighted. For some that were approaching retirement anyway, it made sense. For the others, having them in a semi-maintained state costs more, but helps avoid this exact issue. With the kind of money involved, and the profit margins involved, I understand why they chose it, but FAA and others needs to have a way to fast-track these planes out of retirement that still have significant usable life left.
![I.N "HALLUCINATION" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/n5B5q1Hwt_U/mqdefault.jpg)
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How could the Sukhoi Superjet and the Comac C919 help in that?
Most airlines can't fly Sukhoi aircraft due to sanctions and COMAC is producing roughly 3 C919s a year meaning that they can't fill this gap.@@michalandrejmolnar3715
@@michalandrejmolnar3715 The Superjet's turbofan is a joint venture between a French company and a Russian one. With the sanctions the Superjet is effectively dead until they can develop a competitive, indigenous powerplant.
Even then, they will not get a type certificate from the FAA or EASA, so it will limit sales to non-aligned countries, or allies of Russia, and they won't be able to fly into the counties that rely on those agencies.
As for the C919.. maybe a small dent? It's not seen any orders outside mainland China though.
We're still many years away from breaking the duopoly.
For these new airplanes their support and infrastructure to support operators is unproven and for the Supernet was very poor in the beginning. Competition is good, but look what happened to Bombardier with their CSeries…
@@michalandrejmolnar3715they likely can’t
I thought this was super interesting to both research and film.
I hope you all liked the video! 💕
Yes, but a very odd subject. Tack från Oslo.
It's interesting to see how many diverse factors interact in such different ways to make aviation the complex field that it is. It amazes me when news reporters believe they can do investigative analysis and reporting on an issue, incident or accident, without the appropriate and necessary education needed to understand the field, or guidance from someone with such education
and understanding. Using common sense as a substitute, they believe they have or can easily acquire competence in the subject matter and produce an erroneous story or analysis that unfortunately makes sense to those who are also only equipped with common sense. And since the erroneous information seems to make sense, it is easily believed to be true-which is an absolutely appalling result! The human mind is not designed for unlearning, so miseducating an unsuspecting, inquiring mind that is eager to learn should be a capital offense. There are many pilots who pretend competence in areas where they have none but similarly believe that common sense will do to fill in the blanks, and thus contribute to the spread of misinformation.
You stick to subjects you are competent in, generally decline to speculate when facts are missing, clearly state when you do speculate, and make the effort to educate yourself on unfamiliar topics or technology that are unavoidably involved in a scenario before you produce the video. Your videos may entertain some people and put others to sleep; they may excite, inspire, bore or terrify, but they ALWAYS educate the viewer, even if only subconsciously. Thank you for striving-to the best of your ability-to educate responsibly, with integrity and the truth.
Airlines have always walked on shaky ground. I feared buying stock in them, I saw TWA and Pan AM come & go. Braniff, Eastern all lost . My family worked for these and they were never certain if they would be working next shift.
Very interesting subject. Little k?now.
@@petep.2092 You have explained most of why I disdain journalism majors as journalists. Reporting
magazines should hire from the discipline they intend to report on.
Petter is definitely knowledgeable in the field he is reporting on.
The biggest issue I see that is directly affecting safety is alot of seasoned aircraft mechanics may have taken early retirement during pandemic without having replacements for their positions.
Advancement through seniority / qualifications has a trickle down effect. No one to fill the position they left equates to spreading that workload or worse the advancements now came with double the workload. Which as we know very well from mentour , fatigue breeds mistakes. Just an observation.
Good point
Worse still is that they are filling those gaps with DEI hires...
Yep this is the case where I work - we're down to about 1/2 the number of mechanics vs pre pandemic and management gets pissy when the checks take twice as long... and yet they still refuse to train up replacements or offer pay rises to keep people...
I find it odd how a lot of pilots tend to seemingly ignore or gloss over this issue. You make time for maintenance or the maintenance will force you to make time for it. There is no getting around it. Without maintenance it doesn't matter how short you are on pilots or planes if the ones you have can't even get off the ground because the maintenance backlog is too great for the current maintenance and logistics system to handle. The fact that so many prominent people with a voice in the industry are virtually silent on this issue says how much maintenance is taken for granted. The industry desperately needs more mechanics (or engineers depending on your country) which is why I encourage people to consider it as a career option. It's one of the coolest jobs in the world besides actually flying.
Skilled labour shortages occur in part due to low wages . Not only in aircraft maintenance but through out manufacturing skilled labour is badly paid ( your remarks on supply/ demand don’t always apply ). Young people prefer jobs with regular hours and quick payback . In the specific case of aircraft maintenance there’s an extra emphasis on responsibility where your actions can mean the difference between life and death . Stacking shelves at the super seems more attractive for the same money .
LATAM Airlines name is kinda amusing since "latam" means "I'm flying" in Polish. so in my head they're called "I'm flying airlines"
LATAM really means “latin america” because it’s an airline meant for all of latin america.
Latam is the sucessor of TAM airlines. The only operator that crashed 2 planes in the same day in aviation history.
Look Mom, I'm flying!!
@@AthosRacnever knew that. Could you please explain the two?
@@AthosRac Wow, what absolute chads! Should have renamed to Double TAM for the lulz.
Living in Alaska I find myself a fairly frequent flier, around 40,000 miles a year. Because of this I have an above average interest in aviation because a decent part of my life is affected by it. I find your videos fascinating and thought provoking. Not only have I gained an appreciation for what the pilots and crew are doing during a flight, but also an understanding of what and how they are thinking during a flight. Thanks for shedding light on how airlines are thinking. It often feels like magic is happening when I walk on a airplane and transport to another time zone and location, the reality is, behind the curtain there are so many smart people working to keep the show going. Thanks for taking the time to show us how some of it works!!!!
I can't tell you how much I enjoy your videos. I always learn a lot. They are very well produced and presented. Please keep making them.
Thank you very much, will do!
Thank you SO much for your generous support!
@MentourPilot I find it kind of silly you used both accounts hahaha
@cherriberri8373 Probably run by different people. Its still strange I guess, but this person got double gratitude.
Hi Peter, the one thing that makes you stand out from others, is that aside from being very informative for people like me that love flying and wish i would do more, is that you talk to us like if we are your friend, you explain when needed and keep it factual. I need to also compliment you and your team for the production of the great visual content as well, it feels like this is your primary job :D
I'm an engineer with a background in supply chain and project management. Our current economic model is not viable. By that, I mean every company tries to "trim the fat" to be more competitive. This works great until something unexpected happens, then there's no margins.
Think about flying 20 years ago. It was rare for an airplane to be full - it was routine for aircraft to fly halfway empty from a passenger perspective.
Now, we've optimized both the number of aircraft and ticket prices around aircraft being mostly full. That's great until anything significant changes. Then, something has to give.
They are full and charging top price. Still 1.5x the pre pandemic price to Asia and Australia from the UK. Flights with Asia are double the price of pre pandemic, same in Europe.
Thank you! 20 years ago more aircraft flew with premium seating than they do now... and airlines could afford to have some empty seats, if the front of the aircraft was full or nearly full. But we could well see many airlines moving back towards that model in the next few years -- to create a bit of a margin, as you put it.
thats true for many parts of the commercial world - and the result is that loads of businesses are not resillient
To me, half empty planes are a sign of sickness in society. Flying is harmful enough to the climate when optimised; why doubling the footprint per passenger by hauling empty seats around?
It appears that in air issues timing is paramount. Sales of aircraft and tix to pax. The market is like a seesaw, very unpredictable and unstable.
Peter, a trip down to Teruel to check on the storage of planes and/or the recycling process would be very interesting and informative. And it is close by.
Yeah! I wanna see & learn about the desert planes.
Agreed!!!!
Who is Peter?
@@Fitzrovialitter The guy making these brilliant videos.
@@brotakig1531 I don't think so.
Same thing happened in Poland/Romania (although less dradtic) as when Romanian airline Blue Air got into serious trouble and was forced to suspend operations, it's 5 737 MAX8s were transferred to LOT Polish Airlines within a month by lessors. True, by that time it was already known that Blue Air will have to at least downsize it's fleet, and LOT was already operating the type, but still it went really fast.
Being a retired Boeing employee, I hope they get their issues worked out soon and regain their prominence in the industry.
Would you fly on a 737 MAX being a former employee?
It's funny how only former or current Boeing employees seem to be commenting on social media (assuming this site qualifies as social media). The Airbus employees must be too busy making planes.
@@balisaani Boeing is an american company and so would be expected to have more connection to the english-speaking portion of the internet.
Imagine my surprise seeing safety cards in Cyrillic writing on Cebu Pacific recently. They have leased a couple of planes from Bulgaria Air.
Qatar Airways leased some off of Cathay Pacific, so there’s still Chinese text even on their premium class seats where they mostly just changed the upholstery to their trademark maroon colors.
An Australian airline has wet leased aircraft from Finnair. That makes sense as Finnair's operations have been cut back because of the war, while aviation in Australia is booming.
Thanks, Petter. Once again a thorough, cogent and understandable explanation of a complex situation. I suspect your training as a pilot and experience as a pilot trainer has a lot to do with the logical and methodical approach you take in all your videos - I often feel like you're walking me through a checklist so can get this stuff through my thick head. Kudos too, to the team you have producing these spots, the quality is awesome. Cheers, mate.
Aww! Thank you, that’s really nice to hear. I’m really proud of my team.
@@MentourNow and so you should be, Petter... You all do a great job! I've just sat watching this episode during my lunch break. As always, I just know I'm going to come away more informed, and enjoying aviation even more!
Lets not forget the mechanic shortage too.
Yep, they are all related
Experienced mechanic shortage is going to show it's effects soon.
According to the bean counters maintenance is a waste of time and a loss of profit . Fly the heap of junk until it falls from the sky ( with many souls on board ) and pay the victims family a pittance . We’ve run through all the numbers and we still turn a profit .
@@davidrussell8689 I highly doubt anyone anywhere thinks that, what I mean is delays from poor decision making.
As a mechanic looking for work, airlines no longer are looking for new mechanics. They severely decreased hiring like they did with pilots.
Honestly really hoping that this will help people push for more land-based transportation systems like trains, night/sleeper trains and high speed rail along many routes.
Really good to have options and seeing as most of the aircrafts needed wouldn’t be able to be built until the 2030s, I’d say that’s just enough time to build all this needed infrastructure
That's all very well but some countries are huge, in fact continents in their own right and without the funds for high speed rail links, unfortunately. Being an island also makes it impossible to travel overseas without aircraft as sea travel per se is no longer an option.
@@cathybrowning2310a modern high speed train can reach speeds in excess of 500km/h. They can carry 10x the passengers of a plane and require no check in. Sure, if you are going from the west to the east coast then the plane will be faster, but there is no reason why anyone would be to fly shorter journeys if trains are around. Yes, they are expensive but compared to all alternatives a steal.
Late 2030s will finally bring forth recognition of a global energy depletion.
Many govt and investment entities research has stated as such.
Without the base energy needed for mentioned, success is distant if not fatal.
@MetalMachine131 top speed of a high speed train can't be maintained continuously due to track layout to accout for terrain. That 500 kmph can't be maintained through out the entire run of the track.
@@cathybrowning2310 Right, but the most populous countries in the world are not islands. Additionally, China is a HUGE country with a lot of terrain and they have managed many many high speed rail links.
I'm so happy to see you talking about a airline from my country, Brazil! I have flown many time with both gol and latam. Love your videos! Keep up with this awesome videos!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Big surprise was B-747's very low hours were sold for scrap, absolutely nuts!
Still sad seeing the video of the 747 in the boneyard stripped of its engines, but still trying to lift off in high winds.
Exactly. They got rid of the big planes that could accommodate two 737 worth of passengers. No wonder they don't have enough narrow bodies.
A 747 may carry as many people as two 737s, but it will cost way more than twice as much to operate and maintain.
@@marsgal42 True. But an airplane is an airplane....and if you are flying folks and needing a plane with none to be had, beggars can't be choosers!!!
@@beverlyweber4122 In 2024 a 777 or A350 carries as many people as a 747 and is a lot easier to live with. You might even make money with it.
How could the world possibly run out of the ‘Greyhound Buses’ of aircraft, the B737 & A320?
FYI, the graphic at 15:35 and 15:41 says "38 aircraft per year" which is incorrect based off the picture of a document immediately following that says a more realistic "38 per month". Likely somebody got confuddled with stating of "monthly output at 38 aircraft earlier this year" around the time of the first text.
Super-neat video, as all of your work has been. I like the format where you are sitting down, engaging with the camera. Having the table between you and the camera blocks some of your great energy.
So you like the older type videos better?
@@MentourNow They certainly felt more personal and engaging
@@MentourNow Can we handle that much energy? 😁 cheers! / CS
Crazy world we live in. There are plenty of jets in the boneyard.
Yes, but they will cost A LOT to revive and keep running..
Where are the spare parts though? What about trained maintenance personnel, pilots and cabin crew? That stuff doesn't grow on trees, nevermind the fuel these hogs tend to use.
not just the boneyard - even British Airways still haven't brought all of their shorthaul fleet back into service
@@MentourNow Then why store them in the desert if they will never be used again?
@@MentourNowThat would be a good episode topic - how hard is it to bring a mothballed aircraft back into service, and why don’t we see it happen more often?
When I saw the title, I imagined a man and woman dressed as pilots rushing onto a plane and yelling, "everybody be cool, this is a robbery!"
Sounds like Embraer needs to develop a true competitor to the 73 and A320 other than the 195.
I'd fly on that any day... Love the 195
That's a huge gamble, and one that destroyed Bombardier a few years ago.
@@warmike Bombardier is not destroyed, they just had to sell their design to Airbus because airlines wouldn't buy from them.
@@cageordie they didn't just have to sell this program, but also the DHC-8, the CRJ and their rail division. All they have now is private jets.
@@warmike Quebec was punishing them for large corruption with SNC Lavalin, Bombardier got greedy and were broken up.
"Nobody likes going for the nuclear option when a friendlier option is available" So diplomatically well said. Thank you, and for well researched information.
The term “Steal” could imply some criminal activity occurred. Perhaps “poach” would have been more appropriate and less click-baity.
In the commercial world, Chapter 11 is Reorganization; Chapter 13 is conclusive business ending bankruptcy.
In the commercial United States, rather.
7
It’s chapter 7
agree
You fool, "no hope" bankruptcy is Ch7, stop spewing shit you know nothing about.
‘Does that mean the pilot shortage is over? *pause* Wellllll…. No.’ Made me lol for some reason.
Watching as I drink coffee from my Mentour mug!
Fantastic!
That’s Absolutely fantastic!!
Awesome!!
It would be a situation in which there's an opening for a new player to enter the market, as you were talking about in your other video--except that it takes so long to design, build and certify a new commercial aircraft. It would be years before anything really appears, by which time the situation could have completely changed.
I do see an opening here for alternatives to aviation, where they exist. When airline tickets can no longer be competitive, trains look more attractive for short- to medium-haul travel inside a continent.
Trains are quite problematic for international travel outside of the Schengen area. It comes down to security and immigration processes. Generally, you need a visa and have to go through immigration process, which simply doesn't exist at train stations. To get international trains to work, you need to also convince the governments to establish immigration processes outside of airports. This is especially problematic in Asia where there are many international but intra-continental flights. NA I believe would be the same. Can you go from US to Canada without crossing immigration? I don't know (because I don't live there) but if not, I bet it won't work there either
This also affects the segment of the market most susceptible to prices: tourists. If business travel needs to happen and airplane is the best way to go, it will happen regardless of the cost. Tourists will often look for other options, who often also look for international travel
@@elina35462 No, the US Canada border used to be something you might casually ignore in rural areas, but after 9/11 they added a lot of sensors and the US got really unfriendly. In Derby Line neighbors on opposite sides of the road can't even cross the road to talk to their friends without CBP arriving like the Gestapo searching for spies. There are trains that cross the border though, they work as well as international trains did in Europe before the EEC became the EU. Not that big a problem.
@@elina35462 there's a whole bunch of international train services in Asia, especially between Thailand, Laos and Malaysia. There's also a *lot* of international bus routes in Asia, and yes, these services have immigration processes at the stations & bus depots. To your point of needing to "convince the governments to establish immigration processes outside of airports", the vast majority of (if not all) countries with a coast have immigration processes at their ports, and most landlocked countries outside of the Schengen area also have immigration at their land borders. This isn't new, or difficult, to establish, international travel was primarily done by train, boat, or bus prior to the jet era.
@@cageordie My family made an annual car/ferry trip to Canada every year, both before and after 9/11. We passed through Port Angeles, WA, and up until 9/11, you only had to show a form of ID, like a driver's license, to cross the border. You didn't even need to show a passport.
@@hannahp1108 Right, on the Coho. I've done that several times, first time with my mother and brother. A few times after that with other people or alone. As an immigrant I never really had the option of using my California driver's license. Most times US CBP are still unfriendly and Canadian immigration are still as friendly as ever. The only time Canadian immigration was being evil was when the US CBP decided to be assholes to Canadians and 'work to rule'. Canadians can take a hint and immediately did the same, so all US passport holders got the full treatment. I met this at Niagara falls in March 1988. One of their supervisors came down the line asking for ID, when he saw our UK passports he told us to pull out of the line and 'welcome to Canada'. Now I have Nexus and the US entry is easier.
Boeing is not only one with issues. Most airlines have issues with engine maintenance spare parts from all manufacturers.
I'm sorry, but I don't remember 2 Airbus crashing and a door opening during flight. Or a landing wheel detaching from the plan
Of course Airbus planes has issues, but Boeing has been proven to cutting corners in their planes. The issues that Boeing has and the issues that Airbus has are not at the same level
There’s a difference between trying to maintain adequate supply lines vs criminal negligence to the demise of hundreds of innocent souls.
@Kris5344 Didn't you know you're not allowed to say anything that isn't endlessly bashing Boeing without the sheep screaming at you BOEING BAD!!!!!!
@@James-xs9mn Well, according to the FAA Boeing IS bad, so what's your point? Many people feel that Boeing deserves to be bashed for ruthlessly putting the safety of passengers worldwide to risk by cutting corners everywhere in the manufacturing and quality control processes for the sake of higher profits, also known as GREED.
This is true, but Boeing is the only aircraft manufacturer that currently has an incredibly negative public perception issue which makes their products very unattractive at the moment.
Fantastic video giving a bird's eye view of the whole Industry and where we are today. Thanks!
Before Norwegian airlines filed for bankruptcy, they had flights from Providence Rhode Island direct to Cork Ireland. They had the 787 dream liners, and it was wonderful! Worst thing to happen to me was when they dropped all the overhaul flights when they had to file for bankruptcy.
Very frustrating how all this disruption with airlines has taken place, for the airlines, employees and customers!
Entire airline was a sham house of cards.
At Kimble airport in 21/22 it was full to bursting with A330s, A340s, 747s, 757s 767s and older 737s and A320 families. There was so many of them they ran out of room!
Retired Commercial Airline and Seaplane pilot. You make great stuff.
Thanks!
Singapore Airlines have put 12 of their 19 A380s back into service when they were all slated for retirement even per-pandemic. The new planes that were supposed to replace them just aren't arriving fast enough. Which is cool given they were all sitting looking very forlorn at Changi when I was traveling in July 2021.
Props (pun not intended) to the airlines that recognised the pandemic wouldn't last forever and snapped up older aircraft while they were super cheap. In Australia one of our regional airlines bought a bunch of old 737s during the pandemic which enabled them to start flying major domestic routes when the pandemic ended, while our other budget airlines were forced to shut down. Huge brain move, tbh.
Did people think the pandemic would last forever?
@@Taykorjg Probably yes, there are a scary number of people that think if line go up, it go up forever, and on the flip side, if line go down, line go down forever.
And, yet, a couple of those airlines (like Flair, as mentioned in this video) really regretted their move.
@@jasonborne4330 Flair leased them, they didn't buy them
@@Taykorjg Honestly, with the way airlines were selling off planes, I think they at least thought international travel wouldn't be so popular for a good while
Consistently one of the best channels on RUclips ❤
Thank you!
This shortage is something we are going to endure for quite some time. As your previous videos pointed out, there is a duopoly when several aircraft manufacturers would be profitable, except for the immense startup costs and rocket science expertise required.
Another shortage is airport gates. This in turn, especially in the USA, is causing too fast a pace of landings & takeoffs as is evident in all the near misses lately.
Sounds like it's time to start investing in high speed rail in North America. With steadily rising ticket prices there is possibly a viable market for alternatives to air travel developing.
Look at California and see how it’s working for them. Terrible and disgusting. Billions and nowhere.
Yep, that would have been great to have.
To my limited knowledge, NA can start at least investing into normal rail first, AFAIK it is mostly used for cargo, passenger traffic on trains is very limited.
Yes. The "high speed rail" project in CA has worked so well. $100 Billion spent with not one mile of actual track put down. Another rip off to the gullible tax payers.
Just think about the sheer cost of developing a network in the US that would have even the tiniest impact on flight demand….I’d put the likelihood of it happening at zero.
Great channel. Always fascinating. By far, the best of its type on the internet. Notwithstanding this, please let's ditch the background music. It's low volume but it interferes with my hearing deficit and causes a buzzing which makes following what u r saying very difficult.
I’m sorry to hear that.
They used to fly wide bodies on domestic routes. I remember flying direct on DC10 between Chicago and Detroit - two 737s worth of passengers on one plane. Now they fly only narrow bodies and a ton of tiny Embraers and CRJs and no wide bodies. And all those flights are full and often overbooked. American routinely asks on its app during check-in what price you'd be willing to take an alternative flight. Record numbers of passengers airlines insist on moving with small planes. No wonder they don't have enough aircraft. It's a self-inflicted problem that has less to do with the lack of new airplanes and more to do with the airlines' business model and squeezing maximum profits.
No, many airlines switched to smaller aircraft in order to increase frequency as that is what the market wanted.
Right, but airlines still do fly wide bodies, especially on longer and popular routes such as LAX-JFK; typically transcon. But I know what you mean even PSA was flying a L-1011 on short routes. Do you think it’s because customers and the market prefer having more frequency over anything else? Hence the shift to narrow bodies? Also, airlines are typically conservative. If they invest now in bringing back old wide bodies or older planes from the graveyard and the economy tanks, they are probably hesitant to do so. Many have huge debt on their balance sheets…
@@Bungle-UK Airlines don't care about what the market wants. If they did, we wouldn't be stuffed like sardines into seats separated from the row in front by the length of a petite woman's femur. Going on standby used to be an easy option. These days flights are so full you can forget about it. Frequency can also mean congestion. Even minor disruptions can turn the whole system into hell, as connecting flights are missed or crews time out.
@@brunellom8914 I can't even remember the last time I flew direct from IAD to the the West Coast. Everything is a connection somewhere in the middle. Frequency is great until some disruption screws the whole thing up. Flights are full, and finding a seat due to a missed connection can be a nightmare. It wasn't that long ago when I had to stay overnight in Denver, and my only option for another flight was the same flight the next day, which was at 18:00. Going standby on earlier flights wasn't an option as they were all full.
@@jeffn8218 I think the airlines understand exactly what the market wants. Like everything else, they want it cheap as possible. If you look at the BTS.gov airfare comparison a 1995 average round trip ticket adjusted to 2023 dollars is $200 higher than today. So for those masses that want to travel cheaper than in the past the'll get that crammed in experience. If you want space you can certainly have it, but you'll have to pay.
16:14
To make things worse, these PW engine issues also seem to affect operations of A220s, as there are problems with servicing.
last I heard, both Boeing and Airbus had 8-10 year backlogs on orders and it's very rare to exceed planned production. If anything, supplier issues and labor issues tend to push things the other way from time to time.
Boeing can't produce close to what they committed to anymore. This is the end result of their attacks on their own engineering staff and their cost cutting.
Boeing trying to fast rack their production seems to backfired and put them in the mess of their own making
@@calvinlomax9546 Probably would have been wiser to cleansheet a new aircraft rather than extend the 737. They've had a pretty consistent pattern the last couple of decades of making decisions like that, though. For instance, the Li Ion batteries in the dreamliner would have pushed its commercial availability back 12-18 months if they had chosen to re-spec on Li Polymer as the problems with Li Ion became known. Having asked some of their engineers about that 10-15 years ago, they balked at the idea of jeopardizing the timeline of a rollout, even after seeing the 2013 grounding.
In production "backlog" does not mean overdue. Backlog includes future orders, so it is possible to have no overdue planes and a 100 year backlog...
@@alan_davis True. But kind of moot to the point I was making... that they have 8-10 years worth of orders so if an airline today decided they want a new 737 max or 320 neo and place the order right now, best case scenario is they'll be able to take delivery around 2032-2035. And if there's a labor strike, grounding, supply chain failure or anything of that nature, it's not going to shorten that wait.
the thing about looking at today's news to decide if there is a market for pilot is is that the development time for a pilot is longer than a day. so if a person starts the process of becoming a pilot today, while hires are on hold, the market will have changed by the time they have enough experience to get the job.
Yes, that’s likely true. It’s always going to be a bet on the future to start training but I think now, and the last few years, have been a great opportunity.
Peter I love your videos, they are just so informative and they keep me up to date on all the aviation news. Good work! Plus I am half Swedish 😄😄
The aviation industry is so incredibly complex that I am always amazed that it earns any money at all.
@20:20 That's Alice Springs, NT, Australia.
Such a shame what is going on there!
All the planes that got mothballed from the drop in tourism
Where is 0:24 ?
@@TrapKingz. srs?
@@smalltime0 what?
Too many good aircraft have been scrapped. It's a shame to see perfectly working aircraft scrapped just because of a shortage of spare parts
For airlines companies, this option are the fastest way to get an new plane. Such as when Malaysia Airlines acquired ex-SAS A350 last year during SAS "reconstruction".
SO Cool to see Flair Airlines’s on mentour now. I work for them and was on one of the planes when it got seized. And I promise you those planes were 1000% seized with the intention of getting an almost 50% higher yielding lease by the lessors. It’s still nowhere near settled. Crazy times
As a Canadian, I am very aware of Flair. They did not give the public any confidence that they would survive. Canada has few internal airlines and many startups have ceased operations from one minute to the next. Canada 300, Greyhound, Roots, Zoom, HawkAir, Harmony, CanJet, Jetsgo, Swanberg, and Sky regional are all arilies in Canada that ceased operations and left people hanging in the last 25 years.
I was to fly to Calgary and needed a very cheap last-minute flight but Flair was not an option because it was clear the company was in serious financial problems before they lost their planes. I flew on the slightly less dodgy Lynx, though Lynx went down in February and Flair is still flying
Flair's attack on the leasers was only a diversion from how bad a situation they were in as an airline. I would not fly with them because I would not be certain they will be operating when my trip was planned or that I would get back.
My brother was to fly on Lynx when it went belly up. Fortunately he got a refund. I refuse to fly on Flair after hearing they owe tens of millions in taxes to the Canada Revenue Agency. They could get shut down at any time. Unfortunately, that leaves us Canadians with Air Canada and Westjet. Ughh
@@kuyag68 Porter is a big player now, I'd say they should go all in on Embraer and order even more than the 50 they have, they have public confidence and could easily kill WestJet off if they play their cards right, maybe see if they can get Embraer to make a widebody? a man can dream.
I don't often comment on Mentour Now videos, but they're always well presented and I love seeing the economic side of the aviation industry. Sad face for increased ticket prices (been seeing it for a while now), but that's the world now, and paying a bit more doesn't seem so bad compared to having your plane snatched by the repo guys. Thanks for the video!
I put a large portion of the issues we are seeing at the feet of the duopoly of Airbus and Boeing. As they have become effectively the only companies in the market they have no incentive to actually produce on time, at volume, or produce a quality product that is affordable.
Small point - “who” only relates to people; when you’re talking about objects like planes you can say “which” instead.
many of the most common planes are getting old I.E. Boeing 737 has been in use for 56 years or the 767 has been in use for over 40 years
I would be interested in your making a video (if you already have, I have missed it) on demand vs supply of planes an pilots in history, present and future. Market developments, manufacturing and education developments, and their causes. If you start with the Boeing 247 it could even become a long and interesting series!
Thanks mate, great stuff. Your videos are always informative and interesting.
Thank you, much appreciated!
It shouidl be noted that when Air Canada went CCAA/Chapter 11 circa 2003/2004, it managed to renegotiate leases downward significantly. After emerging from CCAA, it was able to sell at a profit its fleet of A340s because of the very lease negotiated during bankruptcy.
When I was in Brazil this January I was surprised how full to the brim the LATAM flights are. Even the short "bus" routes between Rio and Sao Paolo - the boarding and deboarding of passengers in those A320s takes seemingly longer time than the actual flight.
Supply/demand. When the ratio shifts, the power shifts with it, from the leasing companies to the airlines and back again.
I'm not sure characterizing 735 deliveries in' 2023 as "nowhere near" 863 deliveries in 2019. Your points are well taken, no need for hyperbole!
Strange GOL didn’t get on the Embraer bandwagon. Between less backlog, a reputable aircraft, and I’d imagine competitive prices given a bulk order, I’m surprised they haven’t any already.
The pandemic hit the whole world quickly but the passengers came back quickly after two years. The September 11, 2001 airline shock hit even more quickly, although primarily in the USA. These wild changes in demand and supply have consequences all throughout the industry.
Because people soon learned the pandemic was a scam
Agree, ticket prices for flying will go up badly😢
You really are going crazy with those thumbnails. Just as a heads up, this one really made me think "what the hell is YT recommending to me?" Maybe it's worth going back to your usual ones...
I decided to watch the video despite the thumbnail because I recognized the channel, but a pure white text on black background might have been more enticing to me...
We are using 3 different thumbs at the moment in an ABC test.. what you are seeing now is one of them, possibly the most effective one.
@@MentourNow Ah, interesting
@@MentourNow Pleas avoid the overly dramatic ones. I often won't click on videos that seem to be screaming "Watch me now!"
@@MentourNow I'm happy to learn that it is a test. I guess these comments could be useful for understanding whatever data you collect (e.g. "the thumbnail gets promoted and brings in new viewers, while previous viewers know what to expect and aren't scared away".
I hate to admit that the thumbnail did grab my attention, so it did it's job. However, I would have expected a more sensationalist and less informative video and therefore watched something else instead if I didn't know the channel already.
So well done on getting both my initial attention and some recommendations boosting comments from the thumbnail. And good luck with the experiment!
A tragicomical parallell to the health care professionals shortage that we have seen for a while now.
I don't think that "leasing" can in the long run be less costly that having an employed personnel, or owning the aircraft.
With leasing you pay for the convenience of "not having to care" about one aspect of your business. But... that aspect
still has to be cared for, it's still there. And as the lessors then sets the price... a price you _will_ have to pay...
The "lesser cost" that is initially seen, by not having employees, or a "quickly depreciating in value inventory", soon turns into
a bottomless pit, as you find yourself "at the mercy" of the lessors. And you will have to continue to lease, as everyone are
now fully aware that being a lessor, is financially better than being an employee. Thus the number of people willing to be
actually employed, decrease. There is also a facet of responsibility to consider. Who is responsible, and for what. A big facet.
It becomes a bit of a Catch 22 situation, once you fire your employees, or sell your aircraft, to instead lease them. In order to
"get back to operations a was", you have to make a substantial investment, far greater than the gains from the "cost cut", that
tempted you in the first place. You are stuck, and can only hope that others makes mistakes, allowing you to get ahead.
When you make your business dependent on lessors, focus shifts from providing the customer/patient with good service, to
paying the lessors.
Ever since small pieces of silver started to be used to alleviate the problem of having to bring two chickens and a bag of
herbs with you, everytime that you went to get your hair cut; there has been people who has realised, that "shaving of small
slice" from that piece of silver, is deplorably easy.
Well if you would not have the financing to buy the planes even with the planes as the collateral, thats what you do. I do wonder how many of them lease the crews and boarding personnel as well. It becomes like just a marketing effort after that, just a branding thing with multiple brands running business of same lease companies - an illusion of choice.
Sadly the pandemic showed us as well that you can't finish a pandemic like this. It is still around, still hampering staff. The supply chain issues are still there. We also see the effects of long covid, people exit the work force very quickly because they can't work. So this also adds to the situation.
Thanks for this one, Peter !.. Apparently no short term relief in sight for new craft availability. Stay tuned !!
Was just on a flight - tickets prices were around 40% higher than previously.
Airlines are making hay while the sun shines.
This is a really interesting video. I can't believe this is happening.
One thing not mentioned is the transition from the hub and spoke model to point to point airfare. This requires vastly more midsize planes to fulfill these routes, while also rendering older wide-bodies too expensive to operate. With a hub and spoke model, the long legs of a flight fly less frequently on larger aircraft, while the shorter legs allow the smaller regional planes to make multiple trips per day, effectively allowing one plane to fly most of the journey on multiple routes. Point to point eliminates this "ride sharing", and increases the number of dedicated plane service hours per passenger mile, leading to more planes being necessary.
Of course, the industry understands this and that's why production of these refreshed midsize planes was ramping up, and airlines were already in the process of retiring their older planes... Right as the pandemic happened. Unfortunately it's not as simple as just scaling production to make up for the delay, because those production facilities are ungodly expensive and take forever to build, so they can't easily risk overbuilding them - there is the threat that once the artificial demand created by the backlog is fulfilled, there will be a return to the normal growth and replacement cycle, leaving those facilities empty, never managing to even pay for themselves. All of those beans were counted when the aircraft orders were made in the first place, and they can't simply raise the price to account for the increased scale, either.
That's the best video you've made in a while (this year probably). Cheers!
Wow, thanks!
Right when I can start really traveling ticket prices are up LOL 🤣🤣. Great content as usual Petter.
Thank you!
Its good that you work from home. Its good that you can get up at midnight, wear your favorite night atire, turn on the camera and do a clip. Love the neat hair style.
I was wondering mentour, have u ever thought of posting videos of your favorite flights that you do in real life but on MSFS on here and explain why you like them so much?
No, I haven’t thought of that. Thanks
Well, I work at an airport, and I see some of these older jets kept flying by a certain airline. The huge majority of these are of the 320 family, and many are in sad shape. I mean aesthetically, of course.
They are so old that the airline will not repaint them as it’s not cost-efficient. Most of these will probably be retired soon. Are they still flying because of a shortage of aircraft? I think this video answered that.
I thought the airlines had solved their problems by charging extra for everything like checking bags, meals, seat choice, rescheduling or cancellation.
Due to this fuel type transition from the current standard to the next one which ever it may be, from what I understand Boeing and Airbus are holding back their next gen aircrafts from being developed until the market figures out which standard it will choose.
I get that Boeing is having issues and can't really take risks at the moment, but Airbus should be able to scale up production, sure its a chain of production so it has to be a coordinated move but the demand is there so why not?
If it really is them holding back for future developments, what happens if the technological development hits a roadblock and gets delayed, will the whole market pay for increasing demands?
They can't really afford to slow down those transition efforts too long. I covered this in a recent video
Airbus clearly stated in their yearly press conference this year that the plan for the A320 successor is to be 100% SAF capable. No more than that for the moment.
The thing with production lines is always the question, what to do with it when production ends. Also, Airbus themself could produce more aircraft than they do at the moment, especially A32x NEOs. The problem are the subcontractors. They can't produce certain components fast enough.
Can't blame airlines like Delta for a plane shortage as they keep their planes for decades before finally retiring them as one owner examples.
3:32 "Gol" comes from the English "Goal", so I'll allow it
A word in Spanish or Portuguese is always older than any word in English
@@guidowinter2478 Not in this case. According to OED, the earliest known use of the noun goal is in the Middle English period (1150-1500). The word "gol" was borrowed from the English language.
Interesting turn of events since it seemed just recently there were many Thai airlines planes sitting in storage at the Bangkok airport!
Was passing through there 2 weeks ago. All those planes are for sale or scrap. Thai airways has absorbed its budget offshoot Thai Smile and its using their A320s on a lot of their regional roots. They gave up flying their superb A380s which I loved for their economy cabin at the back on the top deck. All 350s on their long haul routes now.
7:42 For a moment there, I thought this was a stealth nod to Spiffing Brit :D
Can't imagine how you could improve your channel- It's great like it is.
Buy more Embraer.small backlog plus their biggest e2 has almost same capacity as 737
Yeah ticket prices have gone up by around 50% compared to pre pandemic on the routes i fly on
Just giving up on flying anywhere for a bit unless its unavoidable
So, airlines got rid of the hub-and-spoke model, to please customers that don’t want layovers. However, will we see more of this habit being backpedaled with the aircraft shortage? Like, are we going to see a brief return of the A380 or 747 to fill the demand on the long-distance routes if airlines can’t get their hands on aircraft like the 787 or 777? Or is this a golden opportunity for Embraer and Mitsubishi (taken over Bombardier’s CRJ program) to conquer back a part of the market?
Did airlines believe during the pandemic, that the people would not fly again as soon as it would be possible?
The people got hungry for vacations far away, of course they wanted to travel as soon as it was possible again. I had no doubts that this would happen. Just... I didn't know when it would restart again.
But with the arrival of Omicron and the first waves with little effect to the hospitals, it was clear, that the pandemic was going down in the next months and far travels would be commonplace like before... And so it happened.
And then everyone was surprised, that the people wanted to travel again, no one was prepared... ;-)
The 4 seized Flair 737's were moved to a small airport north of Toronto Canada and were sitting there for months (I will have to go by and check to see if they are still there) I was shocked that they were not immediately remarketed given the shortages. There are no other commercial jets at this airport and they are very obvious. Unless Flair obtained a legal judgement to prevent them from being leased to someone else the claim that they found a better Lessee would seem to be without merit.
That reminds me of a similar situation of go first airline in India, due to bankruptcy protection lessors are unable to reposition their very much in demand A320NEO aircraft.....
But there's a catch - most of those aircraft are PW GTF so that decreases their attractiveness a little bit
My home country, Indonesia is also experience aircraft shortage from a few months ago until now and as of March 18th 2024, Indonesia has a total of 648 aircraft and 566 aircraft are commercial aircraft
Well, if the industry insists on scrapping relatively young and still viable aeroplanes no wonder there is a shortage. They only have themselves to blame. But never mind, eh? They can always stick up the ticket prices and thus pass the problem to their customers.
Just a quick note on this amazing video. The name of Gol is misspelled as "Goal"
Shortsightedness, corporate greed and the focus on the next quarter earning calls all point to having liquid assets as a negative for all industries, meaning airlines won’t hire pilots until they have the aircraft to fly, so when the airplanes finally arrive they won’t have the pilots to fly them.
Same for the manufacturers: they won’t make new aircraft until they have the orders, so when the orders arrive they have no resources to build the aircraft.
Add to that regulatory ass-covering and a reactive culture, as opposed to a proactive one, in the regulatory bodies and you have the perfect storm.
Any tiny ripple can cause tsunamis with cascade effects that last for years and ruin the lives of thousands of workers, who get laid off, underpaid, furloughed, mistreated, overworked and then blamed when the inevitable accident happens.
Good job, corporate culture!
Perfectly said and completely correct on all counts. JIT (just in time) anything has destroyed stability in industry and ruined countless people’s lives. It has done wonders for my investment portfolio but I would happy with a more modest return if my fellow human beings lives were not being ruined. And please don’t tell me I am part of the problem because I invest. I have the right to secure my family’s future. I don’t have enough shares of any stock to make a difference but I always vote for LONG TERM stability over short term profits.
@@AndrewSteitz you’re not part of the problem: investing long term is betting on the value of a company, and I don’t mean the strictly economic value.
Intangibles are as important as cash flow RoI, RoE and all the other metrics financiers use. Sadly, in this short-term-profit driven markets, speculators, short sellers and bots gained the upper hand years go, leaving us small investors with little choice
The effect on safety in addition to cost concerns me.
I've noticed this year that flight costs to Europe from the UK have become stupid, EasyJet wanted over £700 for 2 people to fly to Palma or Alicante in May!. I can fly long haul for not much more on a nice more comfortable and pleasant airline, so this year, there will be no European trip
I can certainly see how this is becoming a perfect storm for the industry,not helped by the supply chain problems & the loss of personnel across the board.
We are struggling at EZY with a lack of crews especially with correct qualifications & experience.
Many left or went part time.
Equally our fleet is ageing & we have a number of AOG every day.
The only answer is to cap capacity severely & encourage other moves of transport usage which brings it's own problems as we saw here in the UK at Easter.
Methinks we are in for a bumpy few years until at least 2038 even without another war or economic crisis.
With only 2 major aircraft manufactures in the western world they have a strong motivation to not fix their production shortfalls. If they decrease the supply of aircraft they can drive their profits even higher.
Totally irrelevant question for the theme but what are those flying debris at 19:07 in the bottom right corner?
Birds?
@@davidhoffman1278 Extreamly strange birds. I think it is some fault in the animation, but I don't see how this type of glitch can happen neither how the animator didn't see and fix it.
I remember distinctly during the pandemic when they were mothballing older planes that it seemed short sighted. For some that were approaching retirement anyway, it made sense. For the others, having them in a semi-maintained state costs more, but helps avoid this exact issue.
With the kind of money involved, and the profit margins involved, I understand why they chose it, but FAA and others needs to have a way to fast-track these planes out of retirement that still have significant usable life left.