They're not getting taller. The "perfect" height now for a goalie is 6'4" or 6'5" but that is the ceiling. This is considered the best height for a goalie to get into the butterfly quickly while still covering the upper part of the net. I remember watching an AHL game and one of the teams had a giant of a man at 6'8" playing goalie. The one commentator said he's TOO tall because in order to get down quicker, he has to keep his stance wider, which then means he has a huge 5 hole opening. There's no way he will play in the NHL because of his wide stance, players at that level will exploit that too easily. That game was about 8 years ago. Teams in the NHL have come to the consensus that 6'5" is pretty much the ceiling for goalies these days.
The concept of projection also comes into play. If you treat the puck as a light source and the plane of the goal line as the "wall", the shadow cast by the goalie on the wall (the area the goalie is covering) is smaller as the shot distance is shorter. A raised shot also travels further to get to the plane than a shot along the ice. A smaller angle of release --> shorter distance --> less time for the goalie to react. To be clear its the difference of a few inches but every bit counts. Essentially by shooting low the goalie (in their stance) covers less of the net, and has less time to react to a low shot compared to a high shot. Other important factors are the difficultly/awkwardness of the motion a goalie does to make the save, and how disguisablility of the shot. Just to add: a shot from 15 feet will shot along the ice VS shot 3.5 feet off the ice. Distance becomes 15.4 feet. An 80 mph shot would only arrive ~5ms sooner along the ice vs raised. A small amount but its worth noting.
I was going to add that in too but ran out of time as I didn't want AM to score again before posting haha. But love the concept of lower shots getting to goalies faster. Its why in ASG fastest shooters try and keep the puck low.
The pad size restriction rules enforced after 16/17 and 17/18 exposed how much the improvement in goaltending was simply due to the size of the gear. Scoring shot up immediately following the change and suddenly scoring is at early 90's levels. Now thats not the only factor at play, but its a big part of it and im glad they did it and it should have been done far sooner.
Just to add to my comment, every year since 18/19 the Art Ross winner has either scored 120+ points or paced for it during shortened seasons. From 13/14 through 16/17 there were only 3 players who even broke 100 points (Sidney Crosby in 13/14, Patrick Kane 15/16 and Connor McDavid in 16/17) and none of them even broke the 110 point barrier. Between McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov and Mackinnon there has been 4 players who have managed to exceed or come very close to exceeding the 130 point barrier or in MacKinnon's case have paced for it over a significant portion of the season(75% of the season) since the 18/19 season. This year is trending to go the same as MacKinnon is on pace for 134, Kucherov on pace for 133, McDavid for 120 and Pastrnak for 119. I expect MacKinnon and Kucherov to cool off as the season progresses but still at least one of them should end up above 120 points provided they avoid injury (would be a miracle for Mackinnon based on his career, I'm rooting for him to take home the Art Ross and a Hart finally).
you know gear has done nothing but shrink for 40 years right, and this is an easily verified statement. Pads, chest protectors, sticks, gloves, blockers, all have shrunk in multiple ways especially pads. The improvements to goaltending are structure and discipline. Heavy rebounds generated by the style we play is purely preference on pad facing materials. And this is why players shoot low.
@@Jake0997 I never said that all improvements to goaltending were strictly due to pad size, just a large portion of it. There were crackdowns on pad size in 03/04 as well as 13/14, but they did not go far enough with it. That's why it was reduced again after 16/17. Look at Giguerre during Anaheim's cup run, compared to both the 80's and today's goaltenders. He looked absolutely ridiculous. Furthermore, just look at goalie stats now and In comparison to before 2018/2019 Average goaltender save percentages dropped from .911 down to .905 immediately following the change, and as players have adjusted to more open room it has dropped even further to now this year and last the average is at .899 The video is not discussing players shooting low for rebounds, it is discussing players shooting low more often to score. One of the areas they cracked down on was the chest and shoulder protection, which opened up more room up top for shooters. This is especially evident to me when you see how much more often players are beating goalies high when they use the rvh on the post. That vulnerability up high is what has lead to what the video is talking about.
Actually, something else to notice.... most guys now are not shooting high glove or blocker but when they go high it's closer in towards the tenders head when he's down. It works! Then goalie has to reach not only up but back in towards their head. It jams them up. My 2 cents.
Great video! I think that is completely spot-on. There are a lot of low glove and 5 hole shots/goals this season. Not just from AM, but you can see many others. I think that is a very easy explanation for why some goalies are having better seasons than in the past. First that comes to mind is Bobrovsky. He's almost unbeatable on a low shot (sometimes he does get caught 5 hole, of course.) But mostly, he will stop almost any low shot and lots of low glove. He has an overall .911 this year which is great for being 35, obviously. Still have to go up high most times to beat him. The repeated saves this year on marchessault and Draisaitl come to mind immediately. Just a thought.
Great video!! 5 holes is a great shot, but you have to keep it low to the ice so you can miss high. Now ya you prob won’t hit it high over the net, but there’s a good chance if you shoot it high it’s right into the goalies stomach and here’s no rebound! Crosby has always been great at shooting low!
@@AlongTheIceHockeythis shot will always be viable and the new way to score. It’s easier to track a puck high glove or blocker than it is that low. It takes more movement to get to low blocker or glove then it does to move high. What’s causing the goals are players are changing the angles slightly. This is the new nhl will be this way for a while
20 years ago, stats showed that the great majority of goals were scored with the puck right on the ice. I'm honestly surprised players took this long to try it (because there could have been something similar to survivorship bias in any interpretation of that data).
@@karigrandii since the tendy is typically in a "I need to push off" mindset on post hard for them to get down in time to stop this if they aren't in the RVH
Great video! I just shared this with my guys in the Next Level Hockey Academy. I really like the thought process around likelihood of missing the net based on shot location. Good argument to shoot low if you are not sure.
One of the main reasons why low shots are harder to block now is that the goalies are HUGE now! Most are 6+ feet with many over 6'2 so getting down low is not as easy. It is also more difficult with all the equipment and padding they wear now. Bending down low is harder to do with all that padding. Add in that the league has lots of very talented players that have learned how to play with the puck in many different ways and this is what you get.
If you want to score on goalies that play the game on their knees (even stomachs)...shoot high. I've seen so many goals where the goalie's head (HEAD!) was 1 foot below the crossbar. Shoot high on the butterfly. Just wait a tick. The goalie will drop. Then aim for their ears. Hard to stop a shot by your ears, and you've got a foot of leeway to miss high and still hit the twine.
I mean...if the goalie is sitting on the goal line maybe. Even a 5' 7" goalie's shoulders will still be even with or slightly above the crossbar at the top of their crease in butterfly from the pucks perspective. If you're shooting at their ears when they're in good position and on their angle you're shooting over the net by 6 inches minimum. If they're backed in and sitting really deep in their crease it's a little different but theres not many goalies that do that aside from very tall pro goalies that also understand their angles well enough that over their shoulders isn't open. If you're going to go upstairs on a goalie in position you're aiming at their elbows when they're in their stance but just a couple inches outside and above that point. Those will be the upstairs and bar down shots. Scoring upstairs still means you have to shoot beside the goalie to find net.
Everyone I play with has figured out to shoot for my skates. I'm too old to drop and pop quick, and not good enough to push off quick enough in the butterfly, so I have to wait for them commit to the shot.
great video, you are correct all around. however, after watching McD much of the season, i think he needs to start going high again. he's missing a lot of his low shots, or putting it right into pads. he's great up high and needs to change it up this season to get his goal scoring touch back.
Goalies are getting taller and bulkier equipment, pads that stay flat on the ice even if the toe is pointing up, five hole is getting smaller with big pants and wider thigh guards, it’s all about reflexes, back in the day Billy Smith was the best at reflex saves it was almost impossible to beat him gloves side, but along the ice he sucked. As for shooters they only have two options high or low, knowing the goalies strengths and weaknesses imo determines the best choice. Good video analysis.
Low blocker! Everytime. Kids these days all want to go bar down....what they don't realize is if you are trying to go bar down , the difference of scoring and missing is only 2 and 3/8".
Maybe it's something specific to the style of play the Bruins run this year, but I've seen so few one-timer goals this season. Unrelated to the video, but just something I've seen. I wish there were better stats I could find on this.
Noticed this too across the league but specifically on the PP. I think it has to do with PK units keeping 3 guys high. This is allowing for more tips out front and more slot goals but cutting down the classic one-time bombs Reinhart is feasting off this. Granted a lot of his goals are technically one-timers but not the typical huge wind up ones we've seen so much of on the flanks.
The sexiest place to shoot on a goalie is 5 hole or right under their arm pit. Its not hard if you have good timing and power that it will go in or generate a rebound. Sniping bar down is great but if you miss you have a long skate to think about what could have been a better place to shoot
I could've said this better. But reducing bad outcomes (missing net) combined with how goalies are playing today shooting low is becoming more profitable.
your facts that this is "math" is correct but your math on it is 100% wrong. 25% chance of outcome is not correct, just saying there is 1 in 4 options doesnt mean each of them has a 25% chance. Missing high, or whatever the outcome is, will vary by player because someone is more or less likely to miss high or whatever the outcome is. the real and VERY SIMPLE reason they shoot low is its the fastest travel distance to the net. shooting high increases the time and distance traveled by the puck. Though the time and distance traveled is marginal, it still gives goalies a longer time to react to make the save. simple geometry, think about a right triangle, the bottom line is the shortest and fastest way to the net. the angled line is the longest way. but since there is more padding on a goalie directly on the ice, 12-18" off the ice is the fastest way to the net with the least amount of goalie padding. you were correct in saying its math, but your math isnt mathing.
Well the point that there are fewer bad outcomes when you shoot low, which was the gist of his math, is still valid. Also, I wouldn't say players shoot low because it is the shortest travel distance to the net. That is one benefit of shooting low, but not the reason. The reason is the cat-and-mouse game someone mentioned above. Goalies back in the day used to stand up a lot more, possibly because they weren't wearing a mask, and so shooting low was good. Then goalies developed the butterfly which covered the low part of the net really well, so players started shooting high. Now goalies have caught onto high shots to some extent, so players are going back low/middle. So, the REASON for shooting low is that it's a valid adaptation, but a BENEFIT is that it's shorter travel distance.
Sorry friend, but I think you are wrong. The shots that were viewed are all within 20 feet of the net and usually much less. When a player shoots from those distances, the goalie is either in position to block it or it's going in. There is no reacting, whether the shot is longer (as in your example) or not. There is simply not enough time for the goalie to move. Players shoot low, because they know the goalie is going down into the butterfly, and their glove or blocker will be higher than their leg which is now on the ice. If you go between the arm or the leg, it'll be a goal. However, if they go over the hand and below the cross bar, it'll still be a goal, because there is no time to lift for the goalie to lift their hand. It's a tougher shot though. More difficult to execute successfully. Goalie's will change their tactics to account for this soon (some may have already done so). But in doing that, they will leave some other place open and shooters will attempt to exploit it. Slightly longer shot or not, shoot where you have the best chance to score. Another thing is that players study goalies. They know their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. They already have a plan going into the game about where they want to shoot. PS - If you have never stood behind a goalie during warm-ups, you should do so. It's amazing what they can react to, but for close shots, their is no reaction time.
@@danreed2189 - you must be one of those guys who doesnt like facts and reality. Math is math bud, shorter distance = shorter time to react for goalies.
I do like, "facts and reality," The fact is that I understand that there is a variable that you are not accounting for. In the case of shots very close to the net, the increased reaction time is irrelevant, because the goalie still does not have time to move in order to block the shot. If the shot was from further away and the goalie did have time to move, your point would be valid. To summarize, for shots close to the net, increased reaction time has no bearing on the outcome. That is my point. If you don't get that, i can't help you.
First shot in the video, Matthews shoots high... Just kidding. It was a good video. I think the point about goalies staying up to be able to push off definitely explains a lot of the on the ice 5-hole goals. That gap just wasn't there until the last few years. Also, I could see them trying to take away top glove by keeping the glove up. I think another reason they might be doing this is because of the changes to goalie equipment. Maybe the arm padding on the chest protectors was big enough before that it took away most of the top corners, whereas now they have to cover that with their glove, which opens up low glove and 7-hole opportunities. Speaking of that, I've also noticed a LOT more goals going 7-hole lately.
if a goalie does the rvh correctly then they should never get scored on by their ear. correctly being not playing defense with their stick like they all tend to do even when a player is not in the spot that a pass would be going through the crease in the given situation
Bro did you think you had a hot take here? Shooters adapt their shots based on changes in goal tending. Thanks man. My coaches were telling me the hardest play for butterfly goalies to save was four inches over the pad in the early 2000s
There are more mathematical reasons to shoot low vs high than just percentages. For example angles. Your eyes might be up high, but the puck sees the net from the ice level and when you elevate the puck and the goalie's body cuts down the higher angles. Also, if you shoot with the puck on the ice and is going faster than the goalie and drop into the butterfly then the only thing they have covering the ice is the width of their skate blade (i.e. nothing) and their stick blade. As the goalie move laterally or even up and down they aren't always perfect at holding their stick blade flush to the ice. We don't realize how open the ice surface is, because of how high are eyes. If our eyes were down by our stick blade the ice surface would always look super wide open.
True, as a lefty low blocker doesn’t look open but it is there. That’s a mental blocker shooters have to get past! Speaking on angles, fastest point to net is straight line along the ice.
I played hockey for over forty years and this is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Goalie technique has changed over the years. For years, most goal tenders would stay on their feet as much as possible for a variety of reasons. Through the years the equipment changed and goal tenders began to use a technique called the "butterfly". Using the shin pads more for blocking shots rather then just protection. This opened up the top of the goal. This is why large taller goal tenders became very popular. Guys like Ken Dryden. Big guy and he covered a lot of the goal. Even on his knees, he could cover most of the top crossbar. The idea that shooters chose where to shoot as a trend is ridiculous. It's always a chess match with shooters and goalies. Always has been and always will be.
Interesting video, but your usage of percentages (for predicting a chance for a goal) and how you derive them is laughable. That's not how that works. You should have stuck with your initial data re: where Matthews goals have been scored and other anecdotal evidence which was accurate. That was enough. You don't need to cherry pick variables to prove your point; it actually weakens your argument.
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
one aspect to the 5-whole aspect, goalies are getting taller and taller so more room there. Low blocker have been there for the past 20 years for sure
Lil bro said "5-whole" 💀
They're not getting taller. The "perfect" height now for a goalie is 6'4" or 6'5" but that is the ceiling. This is considered the best height for a goalie to get into the butterfly quickly while still covering the upper part of the net. I remember watching an AHL game and one of the teams had a giant of a man at 6'8" playing goalie. The one commentator said he's TOO tall because in order to get down quicker, he has to keep his stance wider, which then means he has a huge 5 hole opening. There's no way he will play in the NHL because of his wide stance, players at that level will exploit that too easily.
That game was about 8 years ago. Teams in the NHL have come to the consensus that 6'5" is pretty much the ceiling for goalies these days.
@@darksaga80 One of the reasons why Saros at 180 cm is elite goalie.
hole*
BRO TYSM I USED THIS IN MY PICKUP GAME TODAY WITH BEER LEAGUE GOALIES AND IM ONLY 13 BUT I SCORED 11 TIMES. I CANT WAIT TO USE THIS IN ICE TMMR!!
Definitely noticed Mcdavid going 5 hole last season and figured others would follow. Good stuff here man!
One of the best new hockey analysis channels out there
The concept of projection also comes into play. If you treat the puck as a light source and the plane of the goal line as the "wall", the shadow cast by the goalie on the wall (the area the goalie is covering) is smaller as the shot distance is shorter.
A raised shot also travels further to get to the plane than a shot along the ice. A smaller angle of release --> shorter distance --> less time for the goalie to react. To be clear its the difference of a few inches but every bit counts.
Essentially by shooting low the goalie (in their stance) covers less of the net, and has less time to react to a low shot compared to a high shot.
Other important factors are the difficultly/awkwardness of the motion a goalie does to make the save, and how disguisablility of the shot.
Just to add: a shot from 15 feet will shot along the ice VS shot 3.5 feet off the ice. Distance becomes 15.4 feet. An 80 mph shot would only arrive ~5ms sooner along the ice vs raised. A small amount but its worth noting.
I was going to add that in too but ran out of time as I didn't want AM to score again before posting haha. But love the concept of lower shots getting to goalies faster. Its why in ASG fastest shooters try and keep the puck low.
Hell of a break down. Informative, concise, and giving multiple examples
The pad size restriction rules enforced after 16/17 and 17/18 exposed how much the improvement in goaltending was simply due to the size of the gear. Scoring shot up immediately following the change and suddenly scoring is at early 90's levels. Now thats not the only factor at play, but its a big part of it and im glad they did it and it should have been done far sooner.
Just to add to my comment, every year since 18/19 the Art Ross winner has either scored 120+ points or paced for it during shortened seasons. From 13/14 through 16/17 there were only 3 players who even broke 100 points (Sidney Crosby in 13/14, Patrick Kane 15/16 and Connor McDavid in 16/17) and none of them even broke the 110 point barrier.
Between McDavid, Draisaitl, Kucherov and Mackinnon there has been 4 players who have managed to exceed or come very close to exceeding the 130 point barrier or in MacKinnon's case have paced for it over a significant portion of the season(75% of the season) since the 18/19 season. This year is trending to go the same as MacKinnon is on pace for 134, Kucherov on pace for 133, McDavid for 120 and Pastrnak for 119. I expect MacKinnon and Kucherov to cool off as the season progresses but still at least one of them should end up above 120 points provided they avoid injury (would be a miracle for Mackinnon based on his career, I'm rooting for him to take home the Art Ross and a Hart finally).
you know gear has done nothing but shrink for 40 years right, and this is an easily verified statement. Pads, chest protectors, sticks, gloves, blockers, all have shrunk in multiple ways especially pads.
The improvements to goaltending are structure and discipline. Heavy rebounds generated by the style we play is purely preference on pad facing materials. And this is why players shoot low.
@@Jake0997 I never said that all improvements to goaltending were strictly due to pad size, just a large portion of it. There were crackdowns on pad size in 03/04 as well as 13/14, but they did not go far enough with it. That's why it was reduced again after 16/17. Look at Giguerre during Anaheim's cup run, compared to both the 80's and today's goaltenders. He looked absolutely ridiculous.
Furthermore, just look at goalie stats now and In comparison to before 2018/2019 Average goaltender save percentages dropped from .911 down to .905 immediately following the change, and as players have adjusted to more open room it has dropped even further to now this year and last the average is at .899
The video is not discussing players shooting low for rebounds, it is discussing players shooting low more often to score. One of the areas they cracked down on was the chest and shoulder protection, which opened up more room up top for shooters. This is especially evident to me when you see how much more often players are beating goalies high when they use the rvh on the post. That vulnerability up high is what has lead to what the video is talking about.
Great insight. Don't worry though, we goalies will adjust. The back and forth is part of what makes this game so fun.
Actually, something else to notice.... most guys now are not shooting high glove or blocker but when they go high it's closer in towards the tenders head when he's down. It works! Then goalie has to reach not only up but back in towards their head. It jams them up. My 2 cents.
Yes on TikTok and IG we did a series of Sexy Places to Shoot and talked about the "Ear Whistler" - check it out and let us know what you think!
I couch youth hockey and I always shout ‘low shots are pro shots!’
When I first saw Connor Bedard shoot and scores, that what I notice. He was shooting low most of the time. Just over the pads left or right.
I have definitely notice a lot more goals going in under the glove. Low blocker been there since the 90's.
I remember some stat a long time ago where 80% of goals are scored with the puck on the ice. So... the addiction has been around a loooong time.
My coach always told me shoot for the logos on the pad. This is because when they drop down it’ll go above the pad.
Just found your channel. Loved this video, great content. Can't wait for shooting 5 hole video.
Really good analysis. Subbed!
Just next level insight, thank you and keep it coming!
this is sick!
my high school jv team was loosing 2-0 aginst a AA team going into the third and we started shooting low and we scored 6x in 5 minutes
Bar down is unstoppable.💪🧠🧠
Well done video bro!
great video ! keep em coming
Great analysis, as usual 👍
Great video! I think that is completely spot-on. There are a lot of low glove and 5 hole shots/goals this season. Not just from AM, but you can see many others. I think that is a very easy explanation for why some goalies are having better seasons than in the past. First that comes to mind is Bobrovsky. He's almost unbeatable on a low shot (sometimes he does get caught 5 hole, of course.) But mostly, he will stop almost any low shot and lots of low glove. He has an overall .911 this year which is great for being 35, obviously. Still have to go up high most times to beat him. The repeated saves this year on marchessault and Draisaitl come to mind immediately. Just a thought.
And maybe why Quick is having a bounce back year too!
Great video!! 5 holes is a great shot, but you have to keep it low to the ice so you can miss high. Now ya you prob won’t hit it high over the net, but there’s a good chance if you shoot it high it’s right into the goalies stomach and here’s no rebound!
Crosby has always been great at shooting low!
It's a cat and mouse game. Goalies adapt->players adapt->Goalies adapt->players adapt. And so on and on.
100% you gotta love the mind games. In a few years this video will be completely irrelevant as goalies will catch on
@@AlongTheIceHockeythis shot will always be viable and the new way to score. It’s easier to track a puck high glove or blocker than it is that low. It takes more movement to get to low blocker or glove then it does to move high. What’s causing the goals are players are changing the angles slightly. This is the new nhl will be this way for a while
Great video. The majority of my beer league will continue to rip pucks 3 ft above the net, I swear it's the only shot they know.
Keep it up!
20 years ago, stats showed that the great majority of goals were scored with the puck right on the ice. I'm honestly surprised players took this long to try it (because there could have been something similar to survivorship bias in any interpretation of that data).
I’ve noticed players especially matthews have started shooting 5hole from very small angles for example on pp.
It’s like they know theres a high chance of it going in even though its almost at the line down low
@@karigrandii since the tendy is typically in a "I need to push off" mindset on post hard for them to get down in time to stop this if they aren't in the RVH
Growing up playing D we always wanted to keep the one timers knee height or lower cause the chances of goin in are way higher
As a former goalie, it’s harder to look down and track the puck.
Used to hate guys going anywhere out to my sides and low.
Great video! I just shared this with my guys in the Next Level Hockey Academy.
I really like the thought process around likelihood of missing the net based on shot location.
Good argument to shoot low if you are not sure.
Sick video fellas
Thank you
One of the main reasons why low shots are harder to block now is that the goalies are HUGE now! Most are 6+ feet with many over 6'2 so getting down low is not as easy. It is also more difficult with all the equipment and padding they wear now. Bending down low is harder to do with all that padding. Add in that the league has lots of very talented players that have learned how to play with the puck in many different ways and this is what you get.
If you want to score on goalies that play the game on their knees (even stomachs)...shoot high.
I've seen so many goals where the goalie's head (HEAD!) was 1 foot below the crossbar.
Shoot high on the butterfly. Just wait a tick. The goalie will drop. Then aim for their ears. Hard to stop a shot by your ears, and you've got a foot of leeway to miss high and still hit the twine.
I mean...if the goalie is sitting on the goal line maybe. Even a 5' 7" goalie's shoulders will still be even with or slightly above the crossbar at the top of their crease in butterfly from the pucks perspective. If you're shooting at their ears when they're in good position and on their angle you're shooting over the net by 6 inches minimum. If they're backed in and sitting really deep in their crease it's a little different but theres not many goalies that do that aside from very tall pro goalies that also understand their angles well enough that over their shoulders isn't open. If you're going to go upstairs on a goalie in position you're aiming at their elbows when they're in their stance but just a couple inches outside and above that point. Those will be the upstairs and bar down shots. Scoring upstairs still means you have to shoot beside the goalie to find net.
Everyone I play with has figured out to shoot for my skates. I'm too old to drop and pop quick, and not good enough to push off quick enough in the butterfly, so I have to wait for them commit to the shot.
I don’t think that’s necessarily what they meant lol. That would have been more of a thing in the 80s (shooting for the skates, I mean).
Where is that goal scoring diagram from at the beginning of the video? I love it and want to see more!
I had to make that myself by watching all of his goals! Tried to find a site for it but no dice.
Impressive or false advertising
“Just trust me” 😂
i always loved shooting low, I would always shoot high before I found out i beat goalie low blocker most of the time
Even I know that math don't work like that😂
Best low shooter is Mcdavid, hands down. He opens all the space in the world to put it in without having to lift the puck.
great video, you are correct all around. however, after watching McD much of the season, i think he needs to start going high again. he's missing a lot of his low shots, or putting it right into pads. he's great up high and needs to change it up this season to get his goal scoring touch back.
I was always taught "14 inches" off the ice. Hardest for a goalie
I’ll be sure to bring my ruler out
@@Santi-mj1hl I use a meter because a ruler is only 12" and I've cut it down to 14 so when I hit the top, it goes on.
I read the title as “NHL players are ADDICTED to Shooting LOL”
I always seen hintz and seguin always get wide and go five hole so that’s what I started doing and it worked
Hintz is one of the best five hole shooters in the league
Goalies are getting taller and bulkier equipment, pads that stay flat on the ice even if the toe is pointing up, five hole is getting smaller with big pants and wider thigh guards, it’s all about reflexes, back in the day Billy Smith was the best at reflex saves it was almost impossible to beat him gloves side, but along the ice he sucked. As for shooters they only have two options high or low, knowing the goalies strengths and weaknesses imo determines the best choice. Good video analysis.
Low shots are way more likely to go in always have been. Harder to stop the puck with ur skate then a body
This video essentially: “You miss all the shots that you miss.”
Low blocker! Everytime. Kids these days all want to go bar down....what they don't realize is if you are trying to go bar down , the difference of scoring and missing is only 2 and 3/8".
Maybe it's something specific to the style of play the Bruins run this year, but I've seen so few one-timer goals this season. Unrelated to the video, but just something I've seen. I wish there were better stats I could find on this.
Noticed this too across the league but specifically on the PP. I think it has to do with PK units keeping 3 guys high. This is allowing for more tips out front and more slot goals but cutting down the classic one-time bombs Reinhart is feasting off this. Granted a lot of his goals are technically one-timers but not the typical huge wind up ones we've seen so much of on the flanks.
@@AlongTheIceHockey Interesting. That makes a lot of sense actually
I mean all our coaches as kids literally showed us 80% of all goals are low shots...
If you are an accurate shooter, then bardown is unstoppable
The sexiest place to shoot on a goalie is 5 hole or right under their arm pit. Its not hard if you have good timing and power that it will go in or generate a rebound. Sniping bar down is great but if you miss you have a long skate to think about what could have been a better place to shoot
Kucherov shooting thru screens going low
Noticed that. He’s scored five hole from serious distance though traffic
Golies have such a hard job.
This isn't the way probability works
I could've said this better. But reducing bad outcomes (missing net) combined with how goalies are playing today shooting low is becoming more profitable.
Low shots are more effective, top shelf gets the babes
your facts that this is "math" is correct but your math on it is 100% wrong. 25% chance of outcome is not correct, just saying there is 1 in 4 options doesnt mean each of them has a 25% chance. Missing high, or whatever the outcome is, will vary by player because someone is more or less likely to miss high or whatever the outcome is. the real and VERY SIMPLE reason they shoot low is its the fastest travel distance to the net. shooting high increases the time and distance traveled by the puck. Though the time and distance traveled is marginal, it still gives goalies a longer time to react to make the save. simple geometry, think about a right triangle, the bottom line is the shortest and fastest way to the net. the angled line is the longest way. but since there is more padding on a goalie directly on the ice, 12-18" off the ice is the fastest way to the net with the least amount of goalie padding. you were correct in saying its math, but your math isnt mathing.
Finally another person that references right triangles in shooting
Well the point that there are fewer bad outcomes when you shoot low, which was the gist of his math, is still valid. Also, I wouldn't say players shoot low because it is the shortest travel distance to the net. That is one benefit of shooting low, but not the reason. The reason is the cat-and-mouse game someone mentioned above. Goalies back in the day used to stand up a lot more, possibly because they weren't wearing a mask, and so shooting low was good. Then goalies developed the butterfly which covered the low part of the net really well, so players started shooting high. Now goalies have caught onto high shots to some extent, so players are going back low/middle. So, the REASON for shooting low is that it's a valid adaptation, but a BENEFIT is that it's shorter travel distance.
Sorry friend, but I think you are wrong. The shots that were viewed are all within 20 feet of the net and usually much less. When a player shoots from those distances, the goalie is either in position to block it or it's going in. There is no reacting, whether the shot is longer (as in your example) or not. There is simply not enough time for the goalie to move. Players shoot low, because they know the goalie is going down into the butterfly, and their glove or blocker will be higher than their leg which is now on the ice. If you go between the arm or the leg, it'll be a goal. However, if they go over the hand and below the cross bar, it'll still be a goal, because there is no time to lift for the goalie to lift their hand. It's a tougher shot though. More difficult to execute successfully. Goalie's will change their tactics to account for this soon (some may have already done so). But in doing that, they will leave some other place open and shooters will attempt to exploit it. Slightly longer shot or not, shoot where you have the best chance to score. Another thing is that players study goalies. They know their strengths, weaknesses, and tendencies. They already have a plan going into the game about where they want to shoot. PS - If you have never stood behind a goalie during warm-ups, you should do so. It's amazing what they can react to, but for close shots, their is no reaction time.
@@danreed2189 - you must be one of those guys who doesnt like facts and reality. Math is math bud, shorter distance = shorter time to react for goalies.
I do like, "facts and reality," The fact is that I understand that there is a variable that you are not accounting for. In the case of shots very close to the net, the increased reaction time is irrelevant, because the goalie still does not have time to move in order to block the shot. If the shot was from further away and the goalie did have time to move, your point would be valid. To summarize, for shots close to the net, increased reaction time has no bearing on the outcome. That is my point. If you don't get that, i can't help you.
Anyone who knows anything knows the move is one off the mask followed by a five hole shot in the ice. Oldest trick in the book.
Low hard and fast
First shot in the video, Matthews shoots high... Just kidding. It was a good video. I think the point about goalies staying up to be able to push off definitely explains a lot of the on the ice 5-hole goals. That gap just wasn't there until the last few years. Also, I could see them trying to take away top glove by keeping the glove up. I think another reason they might be doing this is because of the changes to goalie equipment. Maybe the arm padding on the chest protectors was big enough before that it took away most of the top corners, whereas now they have to cover that with their glove, which opens up low glove and 7-hole opportunities. Speaking of that, I've also noticed a LOT more goals going 7-hole lately.
You know that Matthews is not on McDavid’s level when he copies McDavid to be better.
Jesus loves u all sm!! great video, God bless you, God is great
It’s because it’s much more difficult for goalies to move their legs than it is their blocker or glove. There, mystery solved
Bring back John blue and the stand-ups. Easy fix
if a goalie does the rvh correctly then they should never get scored on by their ear. correctly being not playing defense with their stick like they all tend to do even when a player is not in the spot that a pass would be going through the crease in the given situation
Brock Nelson is the OG low shooter
Your math doesn’t make sense
Sidney Crosby and Connor McDavid😊
Bro did you think you had a hot take here? Shooters adapt their shots based on changes in goal tending. Thanks man. My coaches were telling me the hardest play for butterfly goalies to save was four inches over the pad in the early 2000s
There are more mathematical reasons to shoot low vs high than just percentages. For example angles. Your eyes might be up high, but the puck sees the net from the ice level and when you elevate the puck and the goalie's body cuts down the higher angles. Also, if you shoot with the puck on the ice and is going faster than the goalie and drop into the butterfly then the only thing they have covering the ice is the width of their skate blade (i.e. nothing) and their stick blade. As the goalie move laterally or even up and down they aren't always perfect at holding their stick blade flush to the ice. We don't realize how open the ice surface is, because of how high are eyes. If our eyes were down by our stick blade the ice surface would always look super wide open.
True, as a lefty low blocker doesn’t look open but it is there. That’s a mental blocker shooters have to get past! Speaking on angles, fastest point to net is straight line along the ice.
This is not new though
I played hockey for over forty years and this is the dumbest thing I have ever heard. Goalie technique has changed over the years.
For years, most goal tenders would stay on their feet as much as possible for a variety of reasons. Through the years the equipment
changed and goal tenders began to use a technique called the "butterfly". Using the shin pads more for blocking shots rather then
just protection. This opened up the top of the goal. This is why large taller goal tenders became very popular. Guys like Ken Dryden.
Big guy and he covered a lot of the goal. Even on his knees, he could cover most of the top crossbar.
The idea that shooters chose where to shoot as a trend is ridiculous. It's always a chess match with shooters and goalies. Always has
been and always will be.
JLY
Matthews
Tage Thompson
Interesting video, but your usage of percentages (for predicting a chance for a goal) and how you derive them is laughable. That's not how that works. You should have stuck with your initial data re: where Matthews goals have been scored and other anecdotal evidence which was accurate. That was enough. You don't need to cherry pick variables to prove your point; it actually weakens your argument.
video is better on mute
Great video! I loved it. Is there a chance we could chat?
Sure thing - shoot us an email at alongtheice.com