Do you understand that Tesla can never even 10% of the car market ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
I went to our local VW dealer today in the UK. With over 60 new and used cars, not one was an EV🤨 They’re only making what they need to to avoid fines, no more.
@@philliptemple9841This is going to be a very hard transition for lots of folks. I wish them well and hope they are working on their backup plan (to license other tech and stick their legacy label on it?).
Every EV they sell means they sell one fewer ICE car. Each EV makes them a loss and deprives them of the profit they would have made on the ICE car sale. Additionally as they sell fewer ICE cars the economies of scale drop in their production increasing costs and reducing profits. This is the death spiral that just gets worse and worse until bankruptcy. VW is doing absolutely nothing to interrupt this cycle and so its demise is 100% certain. Even with a government bailout all that will happen is the inevitable is delayed maybe 12 months.
If it ends in a bail-out, the government may be forced to only bail-out the EV departments of VW. Yet another reason they should scale EV production ASAP.
100% agree. It is like the arcade pinball gaming industry switching to electronic arcade games. Instead of seeing the future and purchasing the electronic gaming technology and then going all in while they still had cash flow and credit, they looked at their balance sheets and figured why change when they were making record profits. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late. The same thing occurred with the horse carriage and wagon industry when the ICE was invented.
Exactly! Plus what the media and Wall Street miss is that because there is a big difference between what people are buying and what VW et al are selling it means the longer this continues the worse it gets and the faster the dearth spiral will become. To put it in context for every EV that VW et al do not sell that the public want, that EV will come from a lost ICE sale(virtually all) and that represents another loss of their own ICE sales which means less income, less profits and less money therefore to invest in EVs and ramp up production etc. So this just makes ramping up and improving EVs more expensive the longer they drag their feet. Sad as it is to say, VW are bankrupt - they just do not know it yet.
Thanks Lars! Big 👍👍 How many times did we hear “the big guys are coming”. “Tesla will be in serious trouble when the legacy companies get cranked up.” etc etc etc I think the only question now is which of these legacy companies will actually survive, and if they do, how much smaller they will be. The thing is that it’s self inflicted and I have no sympathy for the bosses who have had their heads in the sand for far too long. I especially have zero sympathy for VW (remember dieselgate!)and Toyota (self charging hybrids!)
VW made a big show out of investing hundreds of millions into Quantumscape, because they were going to have solid state batteries in VW EVs by 2024? I think that was the year. Notice they have been very quiet about this. VW is paying the Chinese to help them to catch up. Xpeng, Leapmotors, and maybe another. It would be said to see German taxpayer dollars be given to VW, just so they can give that to the Chinese.
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021 Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income. In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany. Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe. The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together. Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth. The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
It says a lot when VW's most desirable EV is the ID Buzz, that has an absolutely terrible range. You're lucky to get 150 miles out of it without charging.
When will a betting house let us start making bets on which legacy automaker goes bankrupt first? I guess these odds can be determined from Put contracts. Bad week for legacy auto.
As VW begin the inevitable layoffs and closures they will come up against union opposition which will result in strikes thus accelerating their impending doom. I would not have a single penny invested in any unionized company in this age of disruption if I were you.
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million. The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together. VW Group revenue 250 billions in 2021, Tesla 81 billion in 2022. So 100 million lost is not much compared to 250 billions made per year with a 15 billions (= 15000 millions) net profit for VW Group.
100% agree. It is like the arcade pinball gaming industry switching to electronic arcade games. Instead of seeing the future and purchasing the electronic gaming technology and then going all in while they still had cash flow and credit, they looked at their balance sheets and figured why change when they were making record profits. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late. The same thing occurred with the horse carriage and wagon industry when the ICE was invented.
Lars it should be the following for VW :- "the road to hell" followed by "tumbling dice" and last but no means least "the last train to clarkesville" , Chris Rea & The Rolling Stones & The Monkees :) :)
Yoh, Lars, I like your succinct ending: " VW's Paradigm Paralysis ?" but I'd replace the question mark with an exclamation mark. It's so obvious. Or, you could've said: "Denial is not only a river in Egypt!". 😂
Excellent analysis. It's hard to believe that VW execs really believe that they are in a marathon and can afford a slow start, as they must have their own spreadsheets and can plonk in exponential growth for Tesla and BYD. The whole industry has been "stable" for many decades, and perhaps they just cannot comprehend that exponential disruption is really happening at huge scale. Its a fantastic time to be alive and retired so I can watch all this play out!
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021 Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income. In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany. Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe. The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together. Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth. The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc, 100m2 of Land cost between 300000 to over 1 million dollars.
I thought elon should've scooped him up to run all of Europe's tesla operations. 😀 However vag is rumored to be paying him over 60k a month still, and might have severe restrictions on what he can do for work?
Right now BEVs fall short on range, charging times, reliability, fast charging availability, and user familiarity in many locations in North America, South America, Russia, North Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe, some parts of Western Europe, Arctic regions, and much of Oceania. All of this will change in a couple of years as more fast charging stations are built, more safer faster charging higher energy density batteries are manufactured, and more BEV OEMs adopt simpler integrated vehicle platforms that improve cost and reliability. We're not there yet though. ICE vehicles probably have a couple of more years before they face precipitous market capitulation and obsolescence.
European, and other legacy, auto makers need to face reality; withdraw out of China, cut their losses and start anew, even if they are downsized by this. They could build new EV factories in other low wage countries. Maybe VW can invent new tech, like a small, cheap EV that can run on its own solar panels that unfold when you park it. But it will not happen IMO. They will only be able to make a profit on expensive, luxury cars. If they survive. Then they can change their name to E-Wagen. For Elite-Wagen.
Let's play a game, you know, like the ones that are on all the international "popular" channels, owned by the Oligarchs with a (or many) horse in the race. The game is called, "Who am I ?" and the rules are simple. The GameHost gives clues and you guess. OK ? Let's go. I cheated on the Pollution Tests and spewed poison at baby-trolley level into the noses of our future generations... I got caught after TEN YEARS. I then continued for 10 YEARS MORE ! No one ? Nothing comes to mind ? Wonderful Lars, they will never have an obituary as pointed as you paint. Grazzi mille ;o)
I think it is a marathon, but Tesla has a 7 mile lead at the half way point and their pace is triple of VW's pace. So the problem is there is a long way to go but the winner is obvious. Best for VW to say that they are just out for a leisurely Sunday stroll, so what is the hurry?
But possibly EV production isn’t necessarily what’s needed for a long time. Do you understand that electric vehicles can never even 10% of the car market for a few decades, ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million. The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together. VW Group revenue 250 billions in 2021, Tesla 81 billion in 2022.
If all vehicle makers switch to electric, there will be not enough power in the grid for all, so some plan to slowly phase out and transfer to electric vehicles is a good one, we would need double the current electric transfer capacity to go all electric, idealistically if we do 5% growth a year it takes 14-15 years to double the grid. 2nd point, it is easy to sprint when you're small company, single focus... 3rd I would love for VW to be the leader, but they are too big to focus solely on e.v., Tesla, nor BYD, have nothing else, so it's easy for them to focus only on e.v., 4th within EU we do not have cheap energy nor big deposits of precious metals required for the battery, so in a sense we can not compete on a price 5th other point is salaries for regular factory EU worker, they are higher than outside EU 6th It is easy to criticize, but perhaps you're not seeing the big picture, if VW fails remaining EU automakers will not be far behind, they have the same issues, so if they fail, then all the subcontractor companies are left hanging, this affects something like 15% of EU economy and the diminishing exports of EU automakers makes less income for EU, In a sense, if VW fails, it is just an prediction what will happen to all automakers in EU 7th So since you're not providing realistic suggestions on what to do, you are just complaining, not helping 8th Even if EU cars are more expensive I still buy them, over competition, as I see the impact of how many people rely for work on them within EU, 9th Ideally German automakers could catch up with the battery technology in next 5 years, war in Ukraine would stop so we can get back cheap energy then we might have somewhat level playing field to be competitive again 10th forcing emissions targets from political seat is always, easy political point, feel free to research how 'emission free' is vast amount of tesla station in US, lot of places do not have grid developed enough to support the 150kw / 300kw chargers, so they have diesel generators out of sight which provide electricity 11th it is easy to be focused in a small scale, when you can pick pocket ideal customers already, wanting what you sell, it is harder to switch on scale, when your overall production numbers are so huge, 12th do not think 100% of people actually prefer electric cars, just because you do, there are people who can't afford them , some people do not like the idea that the battery lasts at best only 10 years, when you need to dish out 10 000€+ to make it work again and the other trend that you can not repair your purchased car by yourself, but need to go to OEM only, this will effectively reduce car ownership and mobility , if that is the goal, be it 13th even the new research to non-electric engines, proves we have not yet reached all the possibilities of the technology... look up single stroke engine (4 strokes in 4 cycles...) 14th have you saw, how dangerous car with battery is if the battery catches on a fire ? the fire can not be put out as regular car would, fire can start again, even after 24hours since it is a chemical reaction, from this simple reason, I would be afraid to park electric car in a garage, 15th this is not a sprint this is marathon, when you look in the scale of things, I just hope EU car makers make it out alive at the other end 16th ideally economic reasons on merit without discounts alone would be the deciding factor to switch to e.v.(s) not the dictate from politicians
3:50) US EV adoption faces a physical challenge: Americans are too fat to fit in a Tesla. Obesity rates for adults approach 70%. The American "Moose Test" involves squeezing an NFL player into a Model 3!
Correction: Lars, you should correct your saying that "... only 7 years after this article, Nokia filed for bankruptcy" - That has never happened! Nokia is a major telecommunication manufacturer with 24.9 billion euros of revenue and 86 900 employees worldwide in 2022. You should have said that "Nokia sold the mobile phone business for 5.61 billion euros to Microsoft in April 2014"
Nokia is one of the best examples in the world of a failure. Sure, they survive, but they’re only a shadow of their former selves. Kodak are the same- yes, they still actually survive, but as a tiny fraction of their former selves.
@@FutureSystem738 The video editor is a fake news teller : There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021 Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income. In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany. Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe. The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together. Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth. The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
EU Commission which is run by (non-elected politicians) announced (import Tariffs on Chinese EVs) That means German manufacturers (need goverment to protect them because they are not competitive anymore the only thing left is to maintain a monopoly on EU Market!
I feel sorry for VW and Germany - but on the other hand they could easily have led the way to a cleaner future but chose to put their innovative skills into defeating tests designed to ensure minimum compliance.
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021 Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income. In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany. Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe. The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together. Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth. The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021 Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income. In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany. Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe. The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together. Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth. The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc, 100m2 of Land cost between 300000 to over 1 million dollars.
Who's going out of business first - VW, GM, or Toyota? I would say GM first, then VW, then Toyota... but each of those will receive a lot of the taxpayers' money from their respective governments, so it's really hard to say.
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million. The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together.
@@maryhadda8420 In 2023 Tesla is only ranked 16th in most sold car brand in Europe, in contrary of Tesla fans claims. And cool that you compare Tesla to BlackBerry (similarly overhyped brand that faded away)
@@THEREALZENFORCE Why do you look at just the current state rather than the trajectory? That's like taking a snapshot of an apple in the air halfway between the branch and the ground, and concluding that the apple is not falling.
Do you understand that Tesla can never even 10% of the car market ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck heck, I completely forgot about that, also there’s the endless supply of broken promises and razzle dazzle, enough endless energy there, and the best part about these forms of energy that they can run at 100% efficiency and last forever
Nokia was doing ok until Microsoft bought them and forced the switch to Windows OS. If Microsoft bought VW and forced them to run all their cars on Windows, no one would be surprised if that would be the end of VW. (The comparison is not fair, Nokia had pretty good software while VW could improve in that area.)
Nokia sold only the mobile phone business for 5.61 billion euros to Microsoft in April 2014. And then Microsoft spoiled it. Nokia made a mistake when they selected Microsoft as a software partner, but selling the phone business after that was considered as a win. Nokia is a major telecommunication manufacturer with 24.9 billion euros of revenue and 86 900 employees worldwide in 2022. Actually Nokia is still a brand name for (Android) phones today, but there is a separate company that manufactures the phones. So they have licensed the brand name.
The problem is that they have built out too much EV capacity and now they find out that people don't want to buy them for the cost of building them. They thought that there was an ever growing EV demand, but there is only demand for EV's that can compete on price and performance. Only a few percent of the population wants an EV just because of the environment. All else are waiting for the price to come down. After Tesla have lowered their prices, the demand for legacy auto EV's dried up.
No, Wolksvagen are right ev demand IS slowing down, for them. With inferior products then of course their market share will shrink and it will look like it is shrinking. You have to take in to account the perspective of the observer, if wv can´t make money on ev´s but for now are making some on ICE cars it will look better to them as they do not appear to have any ability to predict the blody obvious future. When ICE fall below parity cost vs sale price they will default on their debt declare bankruptcy, cutting the debt to 0 $ and start a new vw ev company, if the law permit them to. Thus stiffing all who they owe money to today. If I were them I would cash out now to at least get some money back.
This shit is so stupid. Make an all electric car with a 120 mile range that costs $12,000 and is actually safe and you'll sell millions of them. The first company to do this will own the EV market. The global economy is a wreck and people just need a car they can drive to and from work and plug in at the end of the day.
Why doesn’t VW group choose a couple of EV designs only for now and work out how to build those at minimal cost with maximum quality and value...at scale? Wasn’t this pretty much Tesla’s approach? And in the midst of that focus on perfecting the manufacturing process…the machine that builds the machine. License charging and FSD from Tesla. What’s wrong with all of that? Work with Tesla on everything Tesla is willing to work with them on. Tesla is, after all, the world leader in EVs. Who better to emulate, benefit and learn from? Do they not want to succeed, survive, prosper? Have people lost the ability to properly reason?
Tesla maximum Quality 🙂 US consumer reports ranked Tesla among 3 worst of 27 brands in terms of reliability. Teslas are notoriously famous for their huge panel gaps and misalignments. a 2019 75000 Model 3 Performance is now worth around 32000 euros in the used car market while a 2019 75000 euros Porsche Cayman is still worth way over 60000 Euros. In EV designs the VW Group made much more beautiful EV cars : Audi e-tron GT, Audi Q8 e-tron, Cupra Born, Skoda Enyaq and now the Cupra Tavascan (looks better than anything Tesla made). The 2025 VW ID GTI and Cupra Urban Rebel will aso eat maket shares from Tesla, Tesla EV market shares are being eaten way by BYD, Hyundai, KIA, VW Group, Renault, Volvo, Polestar, Jaguar, Mercedes, Ford and now to soon by Cupra, Hiphi, Lexus, Toyota, Honda, Citroen, Range Rover, Bmw. Tesla struggles to sell 1 million cars, cannot even reach 3 million sales per year after 20 years of existence (BYD is younger), VW Group and Toyota sell 8 to 9 million cars per year (ICE and EV's)
The picture is becoming more clear; VW and Toyota will shrink significantly as well as Ford and GM. Korean , Chinese and Tesla will thrive.
Yes Sadly the EU has the blinds on.
Do you understand that Tesla can never even 10% of the car market ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
@@spinnymathingy3149 , oh wow, we don’t usually run across a person smarter than Elon, please enlighten us more.
@@spinnymathingy3149 please state your sources for this (mis)information.
@@spinnymathingy3149tesla will be producing 20% of the world's cars by 2030 and chines manufacturers even more. You forgot exponential growth
The failed must be left to fail.
First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.
Love it!!! 😂
💯
I went to our local VW dealer today in the UK. With over 60 new and used cars, not one was an EV🤨 They’re only making what they need to to avoid fines, no more.
I walk past an Audi showroom every day in France. Biggest in the area. Never seen an EV in there.
Phillip.
@@philliptemple9841This is going to be a very hard transition for lots of folks. I wish them well and hope they are working on their backup plan (to license other tech and stick their legacy label on it?).
Every EV they sell means they sell one fewer ICE car. Each EV makes them a loss and deprives them of the profit they would have made on the ICE car sale. Additionally as they sell fewer ICE cars the economies of scale drop in their production increasing costs and reducing profits. This is the death spiral that just gets worse and worse until bankruptcy. VW is doing absolutely nothing to interrupt this cycle and so its demise is 100% certain. Even with a government bailout all that will happen is the inevitable is delayed maybe 12 months.
If it ends in a bail-out, the government may be forced to only bail-out the EV departments of VW. Yet another reason they should scale EV production ASAP.
100% agree. It is like the arcade pinball gaming industry switching to electronic arcade games. Instead of seeing the future and purchasing the electronic gaming technology and then going all in while they still had cash flow and credit, they looked at their balance sheets and figured why change when they were making record profits. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late. The same thing occurred with the horse carriage and wagon industry when the ICE was invented.
VW death spiral.
Exactly! Plus what the media and Wall Street miss is that because there is a big difference between what people are buying and what VW et al are selling it means the longer this continues the worse it gets and the faster the dearth spiral will become.
To put it in context for every EV that VW et al do not sell that the public want, that EV will come from a lost ICE sale(virtually all) and that represents another loss of their own ICE sales which means less income, less profits and less money therefore to invest in EVs and ramp up production etc.
So this just makes ramping up and improving EVs more expensive the longer they drag their feet.
Sad as it is to say, VW are bankrupt - they just do not know it yet.
@@taefravis - VW does not understand , people Dislike non Electric , non tech cars.
People do want SMART high tech cars.
Thanks Lars! Big 👍👍
How many times did we hear “the big guys are coming”. “Tesla will be in serious trouble when the legacy companies get cranked up.” etc etc etc
I think the only question now is which of these legacy companies will actually survive, and if they do, how much smaller they will be. The thing is that it’s self inflicted and I have no sympathy for the bosses who have had their heads in the sand for far too long.
I especially have zero sympathy for VW (remember dieselgate!)and Toyota (self charging hybrids!)
IF VW CAN NOT SEE REALITY HOW CAN THEY SEE THE FUTURE
after they made Diess redundant, I sold my VW shares. For now, it was the right decision because I see that they continue to screw it all up…..
As Sandy Munro once said - its not the big that eat the small - its the fast who eat the slow...
Like being on foot in the Tour De France.
VW made a big show out of investing hundreds of millions into Quantumscape, because they were going to have solid state batteries in VW EVs by 2024? I think that was the year. Notice they have been very quiet about this.
VW is paying the Chinese to help them to catch up. Xpeng, Leapmotors, and maybe another. It would be said to see German taxpayer dollars be given to VW, just so they can give that to the Chinese.
VW - wasted their chance, Toyota - no chance, BMW & Merc - have a chance, Ford - half a chance, GM - nope, Stellantis - a very small chance
Why doe stellantis have any chance they aren't making a single EV
in 2025 another company will be Formed (Mercedes, BMW and Audi/VW) - MBW ?
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021
Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income.
In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany.
Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe.
The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together.
Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth.
The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
@@THEREALZENFORCE - Tesla RECORD profits & Revenue, in spite of lower prices.
Tesla has built in parity with ICE car.
It says a lot when VW's most desirable EV is the ID Buzz, that has an absolutely terrible range.
You're lucky to get 150 miles out of it without charging.
Good writing Lars and a very well thought out presentation. All of the old Legacy Automakers
have very tall mountains to climb.
Sounds you just described Toyota too!
When will a betting house let us start making bets on which legacy automaker goes bankrupt first? I guess these odds can be determined from Put contracts. Bad week for legacy auto.
As VW begin the inevitable layoffs and closures they will come up against union opposition which will result in strikes thus accelerating their impending doom. I would not have a single penny invested in any unionized company in this age of disruption if I were you.
Yep.
"When you owe hundreds of millions to the bank it's the Bank's problem."
Papers disprove VW .
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million.
The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together. VW Group revenue 250 billions in 2021, Tesla 81 billion in 2022. So 100 million lost is not much compared to 250 billions made per year with a 15 billions (= 15000 millions) net profit for VW Group.
...and Tesla still makes more profit.@@THEREALZENFORCE
Both VW and Toyota are 200 billion in debt, and Tesla makes more profit with fewer cars along with having 20 billion in cash. @@THEREALZENFORCE
100% agree. It is like the arcade pinball gaming industry switching to electronic arcade games. Instead of seeing the future and purchasing the electronic gaming technology and then going all in while they still had cash flow and credit, they looked at their balance sheets and figured why change when they were making record profits. By the time they realized what was happening, it was too late. The same thing occurred with the horse carriage and wagon industry when the ICE was invented.
Horseshoes went into tire business
Lars it should be the following for VW :- "the road to hell" followed by "tumbling dice" and last but no means least "the last train to clarkesville" , Chris Rea & The Rolling Stones & The Monkees :) :)
@0:30 _direction for decades to come?_ I don't see *VW* with a single new vehicle on the road by the end of the decade.
2035 Earliest .....lol
I think they did Herbert Diess a favour by firing him. :-)
Herbert Diess eating popcorn.
Every marathon I've run had a cut off time. The course didn't stay open indefinitely.
Yoh, Lars, I like your succinct ending: " VW's Paradigm Paralysis ?" but I'd replace the question mark with an exclamation mark. It's so obvious. Or, you could've said: "Denial is not only a river in Egypt!". 😂
Bailing out VW gonna be a big problem!
So true! And thank youuuu! Lars 🙂
My Chinese friend corrects me when I say BYD. He says "bee odd ee".
I CHINESE , I play JOKE , I pee pee in VW's coke
Excellent analysis. It's hard to believe that VW execs really believe that they are in a marathon and can afford a slow start, as they must have their own spreadsheets and can plonk in exponential growth for Tesla and BYD. The whole industry has been "stable" for many decades, and perhaps they just cannot comprehend that exponential disruption is really happening at huge scale. Its a fantastic time to be alive and retired so I can watch all this play out!
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021
Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income.
In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany.
Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe.
The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together.
Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth.
The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc, 100m2 of Land cost between 300000 to over 1 million dollars.
When my revivifier competed in marathons, Doc learned that no amount of training would turn him into Kenyan.
Whoever hires Dies if not Tesla will be number 2.
I thought elon should've scooped him up to run all of Europe's tesla operations. 😀
However vag is rumored to be paying him over 60k a month still, and might have severe restrictions on what he can do for work?
Right now BEVs fall short on range, charging times, reliability, fast charging availability, and user familiarity in many locations in North America, South America, Russia, North Asia, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Eastern Europe, some parts of Western Europe, Arctic regions, and much of Oceania. All of this will change in a couple of years as more fast charging stations are built, more safer faster charging higher energy density batteries are manufactured, and more BEV OEMs adopt simpler integrated vehicle platforms that improve cost and reliability. We're not there yet though. ICE vehicles probably have a couple of more years before they face precipitous market capitulation and obsolescence.
Nokia did not file for bankrupcy, just sold their mobile phones to MS
VW need not worry about freaking out their customers with the EV transition. These customers will buy Teslas instead.
Thanks!
Thank YOU 🫵🙏🙏🙏
European, and other legacy, auto makers need to face reality; withdraw out of China, cut their losses and start anew, even if they are downsized by this.
They could build new EV factories in other low wage countries.
Maybe VW can invent new tech, like a small, cheap EV that can run on its own solar panels that unfold when you park it.
But it will not happen IMO. They will only be able to make a profit on expensive, luxury cars. If they survive.
Then they can change their name to E-Wagen. For Elite-Wagen.
cant pay
Let's play a game, you know, like the ones that are on all the international "popular" channels, owned by the Oligarchs with a (or many) horse in the race. The game is called, "Who am I ?" and the rules are simple. The GameHost gives clues and you guess. OK ? Let's go.
I cheated on the Pollution Tests and spewed poison at baby-trolley level into the noses of our future generations... I got caught after TEN YEARS. I then continued for 10 YEARS MORE !
No one ? Nothing comes to mind ?
Wonderful Lars, they will never have an obituary as pointed as you paint.
Grazzi mille ;o)
What's the name of the song in your opening. I really dig it.
I think it is a marathon, but Tesla has a 7 mile lead at the half way point and their pace is triple of VW's pace. So the problem is there is a long way to go but the winner is obvious. Best for VW to say that they are just out for a leisurely Sunday stroll, so what is the hurry?
But possibly EV production isn’t necessarily what’s needed for a long time. Do you understand that electric vehicles can never even 10% of the car market for a few decades, ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
" is it SAFE " Marathon man.
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million.
The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together. VW Group revenue 250 billions in 2021, Tesla 81 billion in 2022.
Th cow path of a driveway road to nowhere leads to me
If all vehicle makers switch to electric, there will be not enough power in the grid for all,
so some plan to slowly phase out and transfer to electric vehicles is a good one,
we would need double the current electric transfer capacity to go all electric, idealistically if we do 5% growth a year it takes 14-15 years to double the grid.
2nd point,
it is easy to sprint when you're small company, single focus...
3rd
I would love for VW to be the leader, but they are too big to focus solely on e.v.,
Tesla, nor BYD, have nothing else, so it's easy for them to focus only on e.v.,
4th
within EU we do not have cheap energy nor big deposits of precious metals required for the battery,
so in a sense we can not compete on a price
5th
other point is salaries for regular factory EU worker, they are higher than outside EU
6th
It is easy to criticize, but perhaps you're not seeing the big picture,
if VW fails remaining EU automakers will not be far behind, they have the same issues,
so if they fail, then all the subcontractor companies are left hanging,
this affects something like 15% of EU economy
and the diminishing exports of EU automakers makes less income for EU,
In a sense, if VW fails, it is just an prediction what will happen to all automakers in EU
7th
So since you're not providing realistic suggestions on what to do, you are just complaining, not helping
8th
Even if EU cars are more expensive I still buy them, over competition, as I see the impact of how many people rely for work on them within EU,
9th
Ideally German automakers could catch up with the battery technology in next 5 years,
war in Ukraine would stop so we can get back cheap energy
then we might have somewhat level playing field to be competitive again
10th
forcing emissions targets from political seat is always, easy political point, feel free to research how 'emission free' is vast amount of tesla station in US,
lot of places do not have grid developed enough to support the 150kw / 300kw chargers, so they have diesel generators out of sight which provide electricity
11th
it is easy to be focused in a small scale, when you can pick pocket ideal customers already, wanting what you sell, it is harder to switch on scale,
when your overall production numbers are so huge,
12th
do not think 100% of people actually prefer electric cars, just because you do,
there are people who can't afford them ,
some people do not like the idea that the battery lasts at best only 10 years, when you need to dish out 10 000€+ to make it work again
and the other trend that you can not repair your purchased car by yourself, but need to go to OEM only,
this will effectively reduce car ownership and mobility , if that is the goal, be it
13th
even the new research to non-electric engines, proves we have not yet reached all the possibilities of the technology...
look up single stroke engine (4 strokes in 4 cycles...)
14th
have you saw, how dangerous car with battery is if the battery catches on a fire ?
the fire can not be put out as regular car would, fire can start again, even after 24hours since it is a chemical reaction,
from this simple reason, I would be afraid to park electric car in a garage,
15th
this is not a sprint this is marathon, when you look in the scale of things,
I just hope EU car makers make it out alive at the other end
16th ideally economic reasons on merit without discounts alone would be the deciding factor to switch to e.v.(s) not the dictate from politicians
3:50) US EV adoption faces a physical challenge: Americans are too fat to fit in a Tesla. Obesity rates for adults approach 70%. The American "Moose Test" involves squeezing an NFL player into a Model 3!
even if EU puts 10% tariffs on cars from China, all legacy manufactures would run on very low margins, European car bonanza is over.
Yup
Interest rates will hurt.
The German government will have to save them.
CUT all Investment in Fossil Fools & ICE vehicle Technology.
Correction: Lars, you should correct your saying that "... only 7 years after this article, Nokia filed for bankruptcy" - That has never happened!
Nokia is a major telecommunication manufacturer with 24.9 billion euros of revenue and 86 900 employees worldwide in 2022.
You should have said that "Nokia sold the mobile phone business for 5.61 billion euros to Microsoft in April 2014"
Nokia is one of the best examples in the world of a failure. Sure, they survive, but they’re only a shadow of their former selves.
Kodak are the same- yes, they still actually survive, but as a tiny fraction of their former selves.
@@FutureSystem738 The video editor is a fake news teller : There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021
Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income.
In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany.
Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe.
The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together.
Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth.
The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
According to an old German wisdom, TDi ist the future... 😳😷
Now sue the FBI
making big $$$$$$$ is diesel gate for VW and other auto makers
EU Commission which is run by (non-elected politicians) announced (import Tariffs on Chinese EVs) That means German manufacturers (need goverment to protect them because they are not competitive anymore the only thing left is to maintain a monopoly on EU Market!
The old factories will sell for €1
Who loses all the €200.000.000.000
TESLA will buy MOST of VW factorys
I feel sorry for VW and Germany - but on the other hand they could easily have led the way to a cleaner future but chose to put their innovative skills into defeating tests designed to ensure minimum compliance.
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021
Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income.
In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany.
Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe.
The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together.
Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth.
The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc,
There is no huge debt : VW GROUP 250 billion revenue 15 billion NET income in 2021
Tesla Revenue 81 billions which 3 times less in 2022, and 13 billion NET income.
In 2022 The VW Golf sold more than the Tesla 3 and Y together in Germany.
Peugeot 208 and Dacia Sandero are by far the best selling cars in Europe.
The Toyota Corolla sold 1.2 million times worldwide that 's like all Model Y, 3, X, S together.
Tesla went from a 1.2 trillion to a 700 billion company, so lost 500 million in worth.
The country GDP to company worth is a false analogy, all the assets of a country the size of Germany largely surpass any companies in total assets. Tiny Luxembourg has 5600 billions worth in funds without the value of it's land, buildings, infrastructures, etc, 100m2 of Land cost between 300000 to over 1 million dollars.
Who's going out of business first - VW, GM, or Toyota? I would say GM first, then VW, then Toyota... but each of those will receive a lot of the taxpayers' money from their respective governments, so it's really hard to say.
gm likely , meanwhile FORD Licenses Tesla FSD...........lol
VW Group 8 to 9 million cars sales per year for decades, Tesla barely 1.3 million.
The Toyota Corolla in 2022 sold 1.1 million times that's almost as much as all the Tesla models together. 2022 in Germany the VW Golf sold more the Model 3 and Model Y together.
@@THEREALZENFORCE At one time, BlackBerry was selling 50M phones per year. No one else was even close.
@@maryhadda8420 In 2023 Tesla is only ranked 16th in most sold car brand in Europe, in contrary of Tesla fans claims. And cool that you compare Tesla to BlackBerry (similarly overhyped brand that faded away)
@@THEREALZENFORCE Why do you look at just the current state rather than the trajectory? That's like taking a snapshot of an apple in the air halfway between the branch and the ground, and concluding that the apple is not falling.
I bet they are betting on E fuels
Do you mean hydrogen ?
e-Fuels will go NOWHERE.
Ausfallwagen! 😂
It will be the "fusk" - wagon
No one wants.......🤔
(Fusk means cheating)
Well then we say, sorry and goidbye.
Do you understand that Tesla can never even 10% of the car market ! As worldwide projected battery production can at best only sustain 10% of cars being produced. Therefore 90% of cars will need to be propelled by something other than battery electric 🤷🏻♂️
Tesla will be powered by internet spam bots. Supply is infinite!
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck heck, I completely forgot about that, also there’s the endless supply of broken promises and razzle dazzle, enough endless energy there, and the best part about these forms of energy that they can run at 100% efficiency and last forever
Nokia was doing ok until Microsoft bought them and forced the switch to Windows OS. If Microsoft bought VW and forced them to run all their cars on Windows, no one would be surprised if that would be the end of VW. (The comparison is not fair, Nokia had pretty good software while VW could improve in that area.)
Nokia sold only the mobile phone business for 5.61 billion euros to Microsoft in April 2014. And then Microsoft spoiled it.
Nokia made a mistake when they selected Microsoft as a software partner, but selling the phone business after that was considered as a win.
Nokia is a major telecommunication manufacturer with 24.9 billion euros of revenue and 86 900 employees worldwide in 2022.
Actually Nokia is still a brand name for (Android) phones today, but there is a separate company that manufactures the phones. So they have licensed the brand name.
VW should use Win CE ........lol
EV Lars ✔️🖖🌎
Time to short VW ?
The problem is that they have built out too much EV capacity and now they find out that people don't want to buy them for the cost of building them.
They thought that there was an ever growing EV demand, but there is only demand for EV's that can compete on price and performance. Only a few percent of the population wants an EV just because of the environment. All else are waiting for the price to come down. After Tesla have lowered their prices, the demand for legacy auto EV's dried up.
No, Wolksvagen are right ev demand IS slowing down, for them. With inferior products then of course their market share will shrink and it will look like it is shrinking. You have to take in to account the perspective of the observer, if wv can´t make money on ev´s but for now are making some on ICE cars it will look better to them as they do not appear to have any ability to predict the blody obvious future. When ICE fall below parity cost vs sale price they will default on their debt declare bankruptcy, cutting the debt to 0 $ and start a new vw ev company, if the law permit them to. Thus stiffing all who they owe money to today. If I were them I would cash out now to at least get some money back.
Good shows but again more volume please. You talk to softly. Thanks
This shit is so stupid. Make an all electric car with a 120 mile range that costs $12,000 and is actually safe and you'll sell millions of them. The first company to do this will own the EV market. The global economy is a wreck and people just need a car they can drive to and from work and plug in at the end of the day.
Downvote for not getting to the effing point
Why doesn’t VW group choose a couple of EV designs only for now and work out how to build those at minimal cost with maximum quality and value...at scale? Wasn’t this pretty much Tesla’s approach? And in the midst of that focus on perfecting the manufacturing process…the machine that builds the machine. License charging and FSD from Tesla. What’s wrong with all of that? Work with Tesla on everything Tesla is willing to work with them on. Tesla is, after all, the world leader in EVs. Who better to emulate, benefit and learn from? Do they not want to succeed, survive, prosper? Have people lost the ability to properly reason?
because , VW does not have BEV engineers , that why.
they Dont have ANYONE that are EXPERT Coders.
Tesla maximum Quality 🙂 US consumer reports ranked Tesla among 3 worst of 27 brands in terms of reliability. Teslas are notoriously famous for their huge panel gaps and misalignments. a 2019 75000 Model 3 Performance is now worth around 32000 euros in the used car market while a 2019 75000 euros Porsche Cayman is still worth way over 60000 Euros. In EV designs the VW Group made much more beautiful EV cars : Audi e-tron GT, Audi Q8 e-tron, Cupra Born, Skoda Enyaq and now the Cupra Tavascan (looks better than anything Tesla made). The 2025 VW ID GTI and Cupra Urban Rebel will aso eat maket shares from Tesla, Tesla EV market shares are being eaten way by BYD, Hyundai, KIA, VW Group, Renault, Volvo, Polestar, Jaguar, Mercedes, Ford and now to soon by Cupra, Hiphi, Lexus, Toyota, Honda, Citroen, Range Rover, Bmw. Tesla struggles to sell 1 million cars, cannot even reach 3 million sales per year after 20 years of existence (BYD is younger), VW Group and Toyota sell 8 to 9 million cars per year (ICE and EV's)
First like!
Stinking thinking
brain needed
Blah blah blah Brandon
🤮