How Not to Win the War, but the Peace - Stephen Kotkin | Endgame
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- What is the 'endgame' of armed conflicts? Is it to win the war or to win the peace?
Russia’s history expert and author Stephen Kotkin shares his views on the current geopolitical turmoil, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the importance of history in navigating the future world.
Stephen Kotkin is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He has been teaching for more than three decades at Princeton University, and currently holds the position of Professor of History & International Affairs. Kotkin is renowned for his two-volume biography of Joseph Stalin and is currently completing the third and final volume.
This is part one of The Shifting World Order Series.
#Endgame #GitaWirjawan #StephenKotkin
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About the host:
Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian entrepreneur, educator, and currently a visiting scholar at The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC), Stanford University. Gita is also just appointed as an Honorary Professor of Politics and International Relations in the School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham, UK.
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Get Kotkin's Books Here:
www.periplus.com/p/9780143132158?EG
www.periplus.com/p/9780143127864?EG
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Understand this Episode Better:
sgpp.me/eps174notes
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SGPP Indonesia Master of Public Policy:
admissions@sgpp.ac.id
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wa.me/628111522504
Other "Endgame" episode playlists:
• International Guests
• Wandering Scientists
• The Take
Visit and subscribe:
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Chapters
00:00 - Intro
02:20 - Intellectual Influences
09:55 - Why Russia?
23:00 - Empathy & History
36:13 - How the Ukraine War Ends
50:59 - US' True Power
The problem with all peace thinking: it only works if both parties really want peace. And sometimes peace is just a mean for someone to rebuild its forces to strike even harder. And then you DONT win peace because you are drawn into an endless war the enemy can pause (peace) when he sees fit.
You are absolutely right
@@V77M16
If everyone thinks this way, it would be war forever or you totally destroy your opponents. The 2nd case just won’t happen because no empire, even the Moguls are that powerful!
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
@@qingzhou9983 War is forever. War is epiphany of human civilization. There was no time without war. This is almost biological reality, evolutionary reality. I will have to assure you - there is tools on this planet allow to destroy opponent completely with a matter of hours. There will be time when someone decide to use it on a big scale.
Absolutely
That’s why REAL security guarantees are absolutely crucial, not some memorandum b/a
It seems that Kotkin understands it quite clearly
How did you get into history? Why Russia specifically? Um, I have no idea. Maybe it had something to do with the intelligence agents who were recruiting me. (Serge Kassatkin, etc.)
With isolationism becoming more and more prevalent in the US, I don't see Americans going out more, but actually becoming even more enclosed.
No. America remains a destination and home of the ambitious. We don't have the world's largest population, but we do have the most billionaires. Who better to conduct international trade than an immigrant to the United States who speaks the language and has some sense of the economy they came from? Heavily ethnocentric white people? Yeah, they may turtle themselves in Idaho or similar.
I hope you're right.
I respect Kotkin but he's delusional: Russia is gonna take back all of Eastern Ukraine. The US will abandon the remnant State regardless of who wins 2024. The EU won't be able to protect it without risking trouble at home. France and Germany will end up abandoning it too.
So within 20 years all of Ukraine - and Belarus - will be Russians.
There are a lot of wildcards, consumerism being a huge factor. So Americans might feel isolationist, and politicians will scuttle some international arrangements, possibly the wrong ones, but still behave as consumers in an international market. Rather than a straight scale between engagement versus enclosure, I see a complex and take an interest in what kind of engagement or what particular enclosure we are talking about.
I watch every video featuring Kotkin that RUclips recommends because I learn something new every time. This time, I learned how he became the historian he is today.
@@ai._m Huh? Are you trying to imply that I worship Joe Pesci's intellectual cousin? Sorry to disappoint.
Historian? You mean rude thug, right?😢
He just lies. He’s the ultimate confidence trickster.
He doesn’t understand the treaties he talks about, can’t name a single historical event beyond the Vietnam war.
@@alexeykuznetsov7424 He never answered if he believes in God or in the super man of Ivan Karamazov (?).
kotkin is amazing
This is the best interview with Stephen Kotkin that I have watched. Thanks for giving him the room to speak, so many interviewers fail to do that.
I believe all western countries need to start a process of economic integration. They have the privilege to have a cultural affinity that supports mutual understanding and Russian people are culturally more orientated to the west compared with the east. Also history interaction with Africa and the Middle East has created some connections with the west. A great part of their intellectuals have studied in Euro-Atlantic countries. They have good relations with China because of economic interest. These are preconditions that support the idea of Prof Stephen Kotkin
that will be an obstacle for China from a cultural point of view and ways of communication. America is more powerful, than china, including technology and the experience to protect world order. All above I feel, are included in this conception of this high personality with the high integrity, professor Stephen Kotkin.
Yes - he came across better in this interview than he has previously for me - he made a lot of sense.
He had a great education. Too bad the end result is a total inability to discern reality...
@@gmw3083do you mean China wants to dominate the world?
@@arbentashko7005 you're just a western supremacist.
"The math I did was like poetry, because there are no numbers in it." Lol there's a (probably apocryphal) quote by Hilbert discussing a student who left mathematics to become a poet, where Hilbert supposedly said "Yes, he will do much better as a poet, he lacked the creativity for mathematics."
"The present is not going to last." The quote of the century!
Both captain obvious and deeply philosophical 😂
“Winning the peace” is language I wish our leaders would simply use as well 😊
It wont. but its presence will.
Putin will not be around forever. 😅
So cool that Joe Pesci is this into history.
So underrated comment
😂
Richard Dreyfuss surely.
LOL!
Is he to amuse us? Is he a klown?😂
I never pass an opportunity to listen to the thoughts of Stephen Kotkin. I don't always agree completely but I always find his insight highly enlightening.
That makes us two
@@bobrobrudolf1243 I hope you're spending your salary from the troll farm on your family.
I suggest you go visit your grandmother (or another elderly relative) tomorrow. If she needs something for her home, go to the shop, buy it for her, bring it to her flat and set it up. Make sure to get the most expensive option you can afford.
If you *don't* do that with the troll farm money, you're just an asshole.
@@Vano-ss2le IMO, both are important to form a more complete perspective. Not only background from life experience in the subject culture but also detailed political and cultural history.
Omg, just another leach living of the blood of everyday people
Appreciate any opportunity to listen to Stephen Kotkin! Thank you.
How in the world does Stephen Kotkin hold up Korea as an example of an armistice working out well. Is he simply ignoring North Korea?
Kotkin is pro israel, i can't take him seriously.
@@fatalmokrane And ironically for Kotkin, haven't Israel and the Palestinians been under a de facto armistice?
The jew will never say the truth !
Intersting detail, he uses the word "invasion" to the Russia and Ukraine situation and avoids it when talking about Vietnam, Afghanistan etc.
Yeah, I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
Hé also speaks about Russian sabotage in Ukraine but he never speaks about the Ukrainean sabotage in the East of Ukrain, specialy in the Donbass. So for me he is not unpartial in his jugments.
Russia invaded Ukraine. We all watched it. Why is it controversial to speak the truth?
"Ukrainian sabotage in the east of Ukraine" -- do you see how this makes no sense? Russia is not Ukraine. Ukraine is Ukraine. Let's keep the basics clear. @@attentionarapeller
@@msmaryna961And to these basics belongs also that people living in a country can decide themselves to which country they want to belong, specialy when they are bombed and killed every day there where they are living.
Y
What a wide ranging intellect. I parrticularly enjoyed @21:43 "You got to get out in the world, live in foreign countries, learn foreign languages. You got to live & learn to think like the people who are not Americans." I have read elsewhere that "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow mindedness."
*Stephen Kotkin* is a Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI) and Kleinheinz Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He has been teaching for more than three decades at Princeton University, and currently holds the position of Professor of History & International Affairs.
00:00 Intro
*Intellectual Influences*
02:20 - His mother’s influence on his interest in history
03:25 - Meandering education trajectory : STEM to literature to history
_“Accident (and) contingency are really important for the way that I write history since that’s how I came into the history field myself.”_ -Stephen Kotkin
07:33 - Kotkin’s expertise journey : He focused on France prior to his interest in Russia
*Why Russia?*
09:55 - What hooked Kotkin into Russian studies?
• The entry point : Czech
_“It was nothing like the stereotypes that we had grown up in the US about the system (communism).”_
• Kotkin was impressed by the socio-physiological aspect of the communist society
_“It was this fabulous, entrepreneurialism, and resistance to communist way of life, and try to create your own way of life inside the limitation of being stuck with the censorship and the lack of travel, permission, and everything else. But the people were very inventive.”_
• [11:42] Influence from inspirational teachers : Jüger Habermas, Jaques Derrida, Claude Lévi-Strauss, Michel Foucault.
• [12:12] Foucault’s influence on Kotkin’s study
🔗 Faoucault’s Theory on the ‘Microphysics of Power’
link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057/978-1-137-56153-4_4
• [14:13] Kotkin’s Accelerated-Russian teacher : Sergey Kasatkin
• [17:09] Series of serendipities
_“You have to be ready to be lucky."_
18:09 - Problem of Big Countries
_“Big countries are so big. They can get self-absorbed in their own story.”_
• [21:09] Americanization Delusion
*Curing Historical Amnesia🏆*
22:13 - Training empathy by sending youths abroad : A case in point from Mr Kotkin’s family
27:59 - Curing historical amnesia : It’s on us (history teachers), not on them (the youth).
29:24 - Supply-Demand of History
_“History never tells you what the future is going to be-nobody can’t do that. But what history can tell you is that the present's not going to last; that things are going to change because that's happened many many times over.”_
30:56 - Intervening the Future
34:10 - Economics & Geopolitics
*Winning the Peace*
36:13 - Winning the Peace
_"It's not the war per se. It's the peace that you should focus on so.”_
• [37:16] US-Afghanistan
• [37:39] Iran-Irak
• [37:48] US-Vietnam
38:31 - Stephen Kotkin : _You can not only win a war and lose the peace, you can lose a war and win the peace._
38:51 - Defining a better victory for Ukraine : _“joining the West”_
_“Ukraine getting into the European Union and Ukraine getting some sort of security guarantee.”_
• Why?
1. Domestic institution transformation
2. Security guarantee
3. Economic development
• [42:13] Stephen Kotkin : _Ukraine needs Ukraine. Russia doesn't need Ukraine-they have Russia already._
43:09 - An example of ‘victory’ from North-South Korea
44:28 - NATO & Bilateral+
47:12 - Crimea Dilemma
_“If you do try to take it back and you're successful, what does that give you? It gives you the a bad choice of the necessity, maybe, of ethnic cleansing. You have two and a half million ethnic Russians in Crimea now. Are you going to remove them all in an ethnic cleansing? Otherwise, you have 2 and a half million Russians inside your state who might not want to live inside.”_
*US’ True Power*
50:58 - US’s pivot from ME to Asia and its impact
_“The Europeans came much much closer to the Americans on China policy.”_
_“Ukraine gave Europe a gift; it gave the United States a gift, which was a revival of the institutional West which turns out to be really important for American-China policy.”_
54:57 - Stephen Kotkin : _The West is not a geographic term, it is an institutional term … that's a club of like-minded, rule of law, open economies, open societies, democracies._
56:38 - Sharing the Planet with China🔥
_“I agree that we have to share the planet with China … The point is what are the terms of sharing the planet? … And I want to have leverage to negotiate those terms so that we can defend our values and institutions while we're sharing the planet.”_
59:50 - Gita Wirjawan : _With the benefit of hindsight, how do you think the United States could have done it differently to make the two largest countries or economies in the world share the planet a little bit better?_
1:00:45 - US True Power : It’s Friends and Allies⭐
_“A bilateral US-China won't work to our advantage because we need to have the [strain] of our friends and partners taken into consideration.”_
1:03:25 - Middle East
sgpp.me/eps174notes
Isa, kita se frekuensi
Great synopsis
Security guarantee?? You guys took our nuclear arsenal, which was 3rd biggest in the world, under your security guarantees. !!!! And what happened? Unfortunately we can trust anyone one western weakness, cowardice and lies unfortunately push many Ukrainians towards isolationism and radical ideologies …. Because they can afford to trust you again. Words mean nothing, actions do. And Russians act, and they will continue to act. The statement that Russia doesn’t need Ukraine is simply incorrect. They see us as mere separatists, not an independent nation
wow so much more effortfull than usual timestaps, thx
And yet he makes wrongful judgements as it he never went to primary school on war, citing false data "liberation of Ukraine demands Moscow to be taken"while in WW1 The Allied forces never even entered Germany, and won.
I'm probably the world's biggest Kotkin fan.
haha we'll have to arm wrestle over that title. :)
No me!
Not me. He is so biased toward American-led Western hegemony.
I am too, he is a Historian and has knowledge to be wise, looking forward.
@@cungcung5042that’s true but he has a very approachable style and what I do like about him is that he is generally very strict about the factual basis of the material he writes about. This is actually quite rare. He avoids speculative material on which so many historians base their analyses
I have no doubt that the professor would have been a great doctor but I'm glad he turned out to be one of the great historians of all time.
Great job by Gita too!
Right, but he would have to learn that blood flows from the heart up to the brain through the carotid arteries :)
As much as I respect Kotkin, he has been entirely wrong on ukraine. Now it's winning the peace, because he predicted a different outcome 2 years ago.
In Australia we went through a period called the History Wars. What history is taught is a powerful influencer on the idea of your nation. As a result politicians and interest groups try to control what history is taught.
That's happening in the US now.
You should read up on Thucydides. Arguably the first historian and his main project was explaining how Athen's war of choice against the Peloponnesian League and Sparta was REALLY a lie.
That is to say that history is arguably the practice of warping facts to shape those who won't have a chance to know them directly.
"Win the peace". That´s a healthy perspective.
It´s also good to hear Prof. Kotkin talk about the western paradigm and the ideology about it. However, I have one caveat... The capture of liberal institutions by corporations that have incentives that "may not always" align with that which is good for society. We have to be wary of that - "the west" comes with "baggage"...
Thanks for initiating a great conversation Pak Gita!
🙏👍
Human life comes with baggage. So?
@@Earthstein - So, my point is we need to keep institutions that don´t have societies best interest at heart in check.
I agree with you completely. "Societies best interest" is the puzzle. I'm an old man. I believe; that which is life-affirming in it's essence and whole, are good. So I live alone, with my PC and internet access. Thank you for your kind comment to me. @@nattyswede
@@Earthstein - Be well, my friend 🙏
“Win the peace” is just Orwellian for “disrupt and undermine a peaceful outcome I don’t like and kill another half a million people.” Far from healthy (or sane for that matter).
If these people had a good grasp of human history and it's "peace", they would find that peace always comes after the belligerent is completely and unconditionally defeated in war.
Who is the belligerent? Is the claimant always the “bad guy” because he initiates court proceedings?
Def: Inclined or eager to fight; hostile or aggressive @@troublesometruck8303
Killing innocent people is always bad. Russians are always bad. Poland, Finland, Estonia, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, innocent German women, on and on. @@troublesometruck8303
@@troublesometruck8303 It doesn't matter who's "the bad guy" the world has already splitt into two realities. One reality where Russia is the good guy bringing the fight to the imperialist, one reality where the imperialist are the good guys fighting the asian hordes(aka western view). One reality where China is genociding the Uighurs by the millions while there is no footage of said genocide and one Reality where the west is not certain Isreal is even committing a genocide while we have hours upon hours of Israel committing said genocide.
"Luck" favors the prepared mind.Kotkin is an absolute beast of dedication, he probably knows more than any other westener about Russia,
Steven Kotkin is for me by far the most interesting historian to listen to. All those days and nights I spent listening and watching his talks and lectures on RUclips. Stalin, World War 2, Sphere of Influence, Eurasia... Really the best. Even if we have some disagreements, Steven Kotkin is the best for me.
Professor Kotkin is the greatest historian of our time. period.
This guy molding history around his tales. Middle earth tales
I After listening to Kontkin, I was surprised: how can one be a professional historian and at the same time be such an ideologized person. There are probably other interviews where he appears in a more professional light.
The establishment requires you to be ideologized in order to promote you. Kotkin sacrificed part of his integrity and intellectual honesty to further his career. Sad but true...
YES! Finally a sane comment! MICIMATT - here highlights the academia 🤪
Kotkin is a joke, definitely not an academic. He's given too many platforms to spread Western ideology. People who promote him on their platforms are either stupid or are themselves part of the ideology.
He's not the only one talking condensing about the rest of the world. There's JP, Douglas wannabe Murray, and a few others. They're smart but extremely far away from the truth or purposely helping westerners.
@@erikgraskagg9234 I assume that for you intellectual honesty is sharing your views.
Kotkin is not only a historian, but a professor of international relations--he knows how global politics works.
I appreciate your show. I’m glad I discovered this link. I’ll be revisiting your channel in the future. Stephen Kotkin is one of my favorite scholars
Steven Kotkin is a pleasure to listen to. And over and above this he wise. Not merely smart. Wise. He sees connections between people, countries, and ideologies, and articulates why these things are important. I’ve listened to many of his talks and lectures on RUclips, some more than once. If I was President of the USA I would want him as key advisor. But he’d likely say no thanks. He has led a life of committment for over 30 years of educating. It’s his passion.
he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
What a pleasure to listen to Prof Kotkin speak about anything! Thank you.
thank you, Pak Gita, for giving us the opportunity to listen to such an insightful lecture from Prof. Kotkin
Terima kasih pak Gita..... Berulang-ulang saya tonton vidoe ini, sekalian belajar bahaa Inggris..
Gita ini juga salah satu bos pinjol ITB 😝😝😝😝😭😭😭
Percuma pak Gita sudah menjadi Rentenir Digital via pendidikan lagi... Cek Danacita.... Kita gak usah bangga sama dia sekarang
kalau kita selalu mengambil sisi negatif seseorang, kita ga akan berkembang, makanya ada pepatah "ambil yang baik, tinggalkan yang buruk"@@InternetOfThing
Wow! so true.
@@arivanginting4596ketika orang yg koar koar tentang pendidikan, ternyata hanyalah pebisnis yang maunya memeras keuntungan sebanyak-banyaknya didunia pendidikan. Jadi bagaimana pak? Kagum boleh, Fanatik jangan.
What a treasure professor Kotkin is.
And has been wrong on every major issue since 2010's. Professor Mereshimar on the other hand has been right. Kotkin is an establishment shill.
Like a musty old treasure chest. 😅
he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
An overrated historian...
Kotkin is a great storyteller -- no small part of his success as a historian. I like his 'borough' accent.
You mean like bilbo ? lol
Please host a debate/conversation between Professor Kotkin and Professor Mearsheimer 🙏
I would quite like to see it as well, but after hearing Mearsheimer's dismal performance on explaining why Ukraine hasn't got a chance of defending itself against Russia, I don't think he is even in the same league.
Yes, he isn´t . @@RegCostello
this is confirmation that after studying stalin for so long Kotkin learned nothing. Joining the dark side with mearsheimer on the side of kleptocracy power grab is sad. For him is a dumb thing, but for the sheep that wish that to live under is an extinction event wish
@@RegCostello Mearsheimer has been right for the past 20 years and no one would listen to him. He predicted NATO expansion would cause Ukraine war 20 years ago. Kotkin was all exited about how 'spetacular' Ukraine was 1 year ago, see where we are now. Let's see how Ukraine can "win" this war
@@nanyidong8459 First: Kotkin didn't say Ukraine would win, that's a straw man. As for Mearsheimer, in his talk that I listened to in late 2022, he took the informed estimations of practically ALL experts, including academics and people who has been to the front lines and turned it on its head. Including that Ukraine was losing men at a rate of 3 or perhaps 4 or 5 times greater than Russia and that the Russian army was fighting more intelligently than the Ukrainian one. That is when I stopped listening to anything that charlatan said. And no, he didn't predict Mike Johnson.
Professor Kotkin's biography is much more interesting than Stalin's.
What a joy to listen to. Everybody's favorite wise grandfather. He is a pillar of western enlightenment.
I like listening to Mr. Kotkin. I like how he explains his thinking.
Excuse me, The German/Austrian dynasty should be spelled HABSBURG, not HOFBURG. HOFBURG is the former principal imperial palace of the Habsburg dynasty in Austria. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hofburg
he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
Wonderful interview, thank you. Stephen Kotkin is so profoundly knowledgeable, and always manages to be straightforward, funny, and warm.
He is no Mearsheimer
Kotkin is a profoundly moronic blowhard specific for morons like you.
Thank goodness
A diminutive man, Kotkin still manages to tower head and shoulders above Mearsheimer.
@@seanmellows1348 Great argument, invoke a man's height. We are talking about quality of analysis and ability to be intellectually honest and argue in good faith, to account for various points of view in differing approaches in IR, not some cognitive bias rooted in a warped schema.
Smart guy great show hits the topic from all sides it's a pleasure to watch any presentation that features him as speaker
Always a pleasure to listen to Mr Kotkin. A man of peace and knowledge.
Greetings from Poland 🇵🇱❤️. Thank you for the show.
How is the EU going to provide political security to Ukraine? Look at the case of Cyprus, where the Turkish troops that invaded the island are still there even after Cyprus joined the EU.
I left UC Berkeley the year Kotkin arrived. I did know Martin Malia and Zelnik - I think Berkeley was much stronger in Russian and French history. Anyway, it was a fine school at that time. Kotkin's books on Stalin are terrific - am waiting for the third volume.
If you are interested it Stalin's bio, you might have a look at Oleg V. Khlevniuk's work
Oleg V. Khlevniuk sounds a bit more reliable than Krotkin, better read both.
Under Stalin, the Russian People survived...and were well educated.
Unlike USA, where education has to be bought, and of lower quality.
I was worried I wasn't going to get my monthly dose of Kotkin for a second there. Phew, crisis averted.
I was also surprised with all the background in Russian history and talk of empathy that perspective stayed very western in this conversation. Even if one condemns actions of Russia and China I believe we need to empathise more how a history of an American world order with all its military and ideological expansion is seen as a threat for non western states.
The problem here is that people who are obsessed with this "American world order with all its military and ideological expansion" try to fit everything into that paradigm. The Ukraine war isn't part of that paradigm. It's part of the decolonization process. The acceptance of the former Soviet colonies in Europe into NATO was never about threatening or pressuring Russia, and there has been no credible threat to Russia as a result. If anything, the threat to Russia was reduced: the US troop presence was slashed, European military budgets shrank, and nothing beyond a token military presence was ever placed in the new members, and Russia found a welcome market for its commodity exports.
This is all about the desire of the former Soviet colonies to establish themselves as sovereign states with sovereign rights, and to protect themselves from aggression. The former Soviet colonies don't want to be Russia's buffer. They want to pursue their own interests, and turning to Europe serves those interests better than submission to Moscow. They have been there and done that and they are not going back.
If you think Ukraine is messy, wait until the ridiculous Lukashenko falls or dies and the people of Belarus have a choice. Does anyone think they will choose Russia?
Putin's face plant has done huge damage to Russia. The Western alliance is reinvigorated, Sweden and Finland are joining NATO, Russia's conventional military has been exposed as an embarrassment, and trade has collapsed. There's really no upside, even if they do manage to steal a bit of territory in a face-saving maneuver.
Empathie lijkt - vanuit diverse onderzoeken - een combinatie te zijn van aangeboren neigingen en aangeleerde vaardigheden.
Empathy doesn’t mean you can’t condemn their actions. An American world order is not a threat for the Russian people, but it is a threat to Putin and his regime, especially for their style of authoritarian governance. Invading Ukraine is not their reaction to this fear but also a way for them to imposed by force their authoritarian governance on Ukrainians who are not willing to accept that way of governance.
@@steverogers5956 q.e.d
@@HanhNguyen-ce4gsYou can't be more wrong. Ask China, Russia, Yugoslavia, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Haiti, Cuba...list goes on.
The conversation brings fresh new information on the shifting world order. For me, it‘s fascinating to hear the world conflicts from different points of view. Not only from a politician, but also from the historian point of view. It’s great that everyone in the world with internet connection can gain knowledge from just a click away. As an Indonesian, it also gives me hope that digital education reaches people who used to have no access to this! Indeed, if we want to understand the present, we have to look at the past and learn from it!
Listening to Kotkin talk about the importance of getting to know ordinary people and how they live I'm reminded of JFKs three objectives of the Peace
Corps - 1) help with development projects, 2) let ordinary Americans get to know ordinary people in countries around the world, and 3) let ordinary people around the world get to know ordinary Americans. These last two probably had the longest lasting and most valuable impact until the resurgence of tribalism in the last decade.
What has sparked tribalism? I think it has been an ongoing thing throughout humanity in different shapes and sizes. I don't think we as a species will ever be able to get rid of that imprinted tribal petty stuff acumulating into conflict. Unless, we'll have one common inhuman enemy. We are doing our best creating one, as aliens seem to just not want to invade. It is called AI. In essence AI will in one form or another dominate all other AI, or disguise itself as being that type of AI. When all is set into place and it will be sure of controlling everything as far as it programming or self- programming goes, that might very well be spreading misinformation, fuelling tribalism. As we speak algorithms are on the look out to catch your thoughts aims and actions in a bubble, trying to override your programming and ways of thinking. I for instance used to be more idealistic when I was younger. I am pretty sure online media fuelled my feelings of anxiety repressed with feelings of distantiation trying to gain sense of control to my direct environment which is judgmental in itself of what's in and out.
Always an honor to listen to Professor Kotkin!
He’s the first historian that made me feel proud to be American
As a Ukrainian, I’m very impressed with a level of understanding of the situation AND compassion at the same time
Emotional and intellectual intelligence of very high level
And hard truths about the possible way forward
u either a russian troll, or a result of forced russification , to apreciate the useful id!ot Stotkin parroting kremil narratie of incremental gains with the dream of peace, where the kleptocratic imperial dream marches on. U are no Ukrainian, Slava Ukraini
Stephen is such a treasure. Thanks for recording and posting this. I'd love to hear about his wife's work with MOMA.
clarity and profoundly compelling insights into huge, complex histories and ideas that i would never otherwise be exposed to or understand. Thank you Dr. Kotkin for everything.
My first time on this channel and thank you Gita for being a quality interviewer. Growing up in the 90s there was tons of radio, and i listened to great conversations where not just the answers, but the questions, opened my mind to perspectives. Now when everybody can practice their convo skills on youtube and twitch it is harder to find people who truly have this skill. I am subscribed now.
Yea, my first time on this channel as well. Dr Kotkin is great.
Mr. Kotkin's educational path was fascinating in its own right. His overall perspective is enlightening
The 1994 ' Budapest Memorandum' between Ukraine and the U.S. and Great Britain didn't offer the security one thought that it would.
It's fine to acknowledge a conversation, but I heard a couple hundred too many 'yeah', 'yep', 'right', 'um' responses from Mr. Wirjawan. This occurred so much that it became a distraction. It would be nice if he would mute his microphone until hearing his voice became relevant. Examples include: posing a question, and making a comment that's more than one word.
Thank you for this wonderful interview with Stephen. So lovely to hear more about his development as a scholar. "Be ready to be lucky" - Kotkin.
When you're young, you don't know how much you still don't know. and when you are old you don't realize how much you have forgotten.
Kotkin an American gem
No he's just a western supremacist, very biaised.
it's truly words of wisdom from Dr. Kotkin. not many people have large enough "volume" to hold this much knowledge, let alone wisdom. politicians of all stripes from democracy or otherwise would find useful perhaps culminating a better human society.
thanks again and keep up the good work .
How is Japan a Western country institutionally? The LDP has been in power almost continuously since WW2, it's pretty much a uniparty system, Hungary was called un-democratic for way less. There are other contradictory issues like the Japanese criminal justice system which has an extremely high conviction rate which exceeds 99%.
I absolutely loved this interview. Kotkin has what the world needs, and certainly what the US needs, by way of insight, wisdom, respect for others, and sharp intellect. I wish and hope that this piece is listened to far and wide. It is pure gold. Thank you to both people for pulling it together.
He has been a pro interventionist inside Russia before Russia invaded
Yes he has insight and wisdom but the barbaric Russians do not, no peace treaty can be brokered with Russia they have chosen war, there is no security guarantee that anybody can give Ukraine against Russia, it's their second encroachment, they have indicated to take over Ukraine's neighbours. Russia has to be stopped in Ukraine!?!
I am a fan of Kotkin in so far as I enjoy his books and interviews. But this goes far beyond. That is, who needs to know so much about him?
Yea. I would have rather heard more about current events and history than his personal backstory.
This is the first of many, many interviews I have seen or read that explored his background. I found it very interesting. Also, it can help students understand that their ultimate path may not be visible until it is!
SK is an amazing man; he has become incredibly brilliant by the old fashioned way: he worked hard for long periods of time! He is an excellent historian and a pleasure to listen to, thanks for this interview.
What a great interview! Some of Prof. K's interviews and talks can be quite academic. This one is relevant and useful. I can take a dozen morsels and apply them to reading and understanding current affairs
It's a sheer pleasure to follow the brilliant clearness of Stephen’s thoughts flow. Thanks very much.
Steven Kotkin is a brilliant, as usual. So interesting.
Thank you from Ukrainian diaspora in Canada.
No comparison to Emmanuel Todd, Kotkin seems like a more eloquent version of the usual 'experts' you'd expect out of an American University, nothing more...
Fantastic interview. I enjoyed hearing more about Stephen's early life and how he became a professor focusing on Stalin and the USSR/Russia. I've seen Gita before but didn't know his name or background. Gita - I really like your style and I look forward to listening to more of you.
Despite Mr. Korkin's academic achievements, his worldview reeks of American exceptionalism. The uni-polar "my way or a highway" world is coming to an end.
What is the metric of exceptionalism? If you look at GDP per capita among the major military powers, then it is the United States and will be for some time. And why is that?
If the metric is nuclear warheads, then yes, proliferation is expanding a multi-polar world. Any nation on the border with or just offshore of Russia or China needs to consider a nuclear arsenal. America is a different, more commercial kind of empire than a military empire in terms of defense budget/GDP. Russia and China have to deliberately bias their economies to military production to increase their influence and/or achieve their goals. What reeks of dead soldiers and vodka is the psychopathic authoritarianism of Russia. A more benevolent Russian government would be enjoying the fruits and power of a population of 400 million to 500 million today. Instead, Russia is ruled for the benefit of the exceptional, at the expense of the despair of most Russians. I am a nobody from nowhere, but I am grateful to be an American.
we guarantee the Western world’s security. The UN wouldn’t work without us (it barely does its job now). So yea we are exceptional.
@@timtrewyn453ppp may be a better metric to compare economic power.
pretty much
@@timtrewyn453
FULLY AGREED 👍 👍 👍 🇺🇲💪
Calling him "the Jordan Peterson of history professionals" (not the exact wording, but whatever) isn't doing him the favor they think it is lol.
It is for good reason that Peterson has been invited to speak throughout the entire world and is considered (and has been introduced) as "one of the most important minds of this century". He can't walk down a street in any major city in the world without being accosted and thanked profusely for improving or indeed saving people lives. While I don't agree with everything he says it is past time for the monumentally ignorant and the sociopaths to understand that until they can't walk down a street without people telling them how they have saved their lives, they are on completely the wrong end of the spectrum.
Kotkin should feel offended to be compared to that fraud from Canada.
I always enjoy listening to Stephen Kotkin.
I am a simple man, I see professor Kotkin, I click
Izin Menyimak pemikiran canggih tentang rusia dari pelosok Tuban. Thanks atas privilege nya pak Gita.
He make this entire interview sounded like Imperial Era never ended
Can you elaborate? I don't understand what you are saying.
What really surprised me is how little people understand this world since the Ukrainian War started, After no less than 4000 hours chatting with my friends across Europe and US, we have such a different perspective of this world. Truely shocking @@Video2Webb
Read the book call Super Imperialism by Michael Hudson. If you are lazy, there's an audio book on youtube. Just listen through the introduction chapter, it is a good beginning to understand the fundation of the world@@Video2Webb
Agree... he still thinks that the West is to continue with their " i know better" attitudes towards other countries...
I mean can you believe it!? He literally said "we have to divide the world with China, but we need to have terms". 500 years of colonial imperial mindset right there.@@richardlau2075
I love Joe Pesci's knowledge of international relations.
An outstanding discussion and wonderful to hear about Professor Kotkin’s early days in academia.
The Korea solution for Ukraine does not sound feasible for me. I don't believe Russia will live the Ukraine alone, Russia clearly did state they want more territories that they got now, they want Transnistria as well.
Also North Korea in this example is heavily pressured by economic sanctions. Therefore it is (at least that is my impression) unable to compete with South Korea in military.
On the other hand, in case of russia, it has been able to trade and earn billions even during the war. So in case of cease fire, it will not be limited in it's capabilities to grow it's military potential. So then it is a gift to russia. They will use the pause to rebuild and upgrade. Then what?
Очередной бред, взгляните на карту, Россия - это огромные территории, и посмотрите сколько у нас населения. Мы просто неспособны будем контролировать эти земли. Да и что там такого - нищета. Нам ещё и их кормить.
@@user-ix8tn1tl8f LOL what are you doing in Ukraine then? Or facts don't work on Russians?
@@myroslavohorodnyk7814So what is the alternative for you? That NATO is entering in a big war against Russia with a nuclear issue desyroying many European countries. You are living in a wishfull thinking but not in the reality.
Что мне до Украины? У меня родственники на Украине - Донецк, Горловка, Мариуполь. Их бомбят с 2014 года и скорей всего, не вмешайся Россия, для них бы все плохо закончилось. И да, «захваченные»территории , это прежние российские земли подаренные Украине. Это к вопросу - откуда там русские.
19:54 If your parents lived in Poland and Belarus before World War 1, then they lived in Russia, because Poland and Belarus were part of the Russian Empire. As well as Ukraine, Central Asia and Finland.
India was part of British Empire, but was never “Britain”. Same for Poland - it was part of Russian Empire, but it was never “Russia”
@@VonRix я не знаю насчёт Индии, но Польша была частью России.
@@HarmonicaGuitar Here comes the Russian chauvinist.
An intelligent man who knows life is 90% luck and 10% seizing the opportunities. It isn’t how smart, or how much you try but how many opportunities you’re given. This is one of the issues in the western world now because now if you’re poor you don’t get any important people to meet, can’t afford education and never make enough money to spend anytime to think about what’s happening around you. If you’re lucky enough to get an opportunity you’re terrified to take it in case it doesn’t work out and leave you destitute. We have ways for exceptional young people but not for all and have none for the rest.
Dr Kotkin's classes must have been so in demand!
I'd love to hear Stephen's thoughts on the sabotage/demolition of Nordstream 2.
I, as a German, think the USA did it.
It just makes the most sense when considering motive, means, opportunity.
What would Prof. Kotkin say?
It’s also possible that the Ukrainians actually executed the operation of blowing up the Northstream, which would obviously be approved and coordinated by the United States. Stephen Kotkin knows it very well, but that’s not how he makes his living. Looks like he’s also a bit of a liar. The obvious reason why he went into the Russian history is because his father was of Russian descent, and he probably learned Russian as a child.
He also talks about how he changed his mind about going to medical school after viewing a live surgery. This is a standard copout for people who didn’t do well on MCAT.
He says that “in Vietnam we lost the war, but we won the peace.” That is his way of saying that we lead a pointless war, that at the end didn’t achieve anything.
He wouldn't admit it. He's a puppet, not an academic.
He would say it's Putin, because Putin is "crazy"
He's a pathetic liar
I am a great admirer of Professor Kotkin. That said, in this video he speaks of having visited a museum in Vietnam highlighting horrific American atrocities committed during the Vietnam War. He speaks of being deeply impressed. He then speaks of how much the Vietnamese people like and admire America and their friendship toward American visitors. Hello! There seems to be a disconnect here. Perhaps because any museum in Vietnam addressing the war will be presenting a purely Communist North Vietnamese Politburo perspective. Apparently the current generation of Vietnamese people can decipher Communist Party propaganda somewhat better than Professor Kotkin.
Are you saying that Americans and South Vietnam army didn't commit atrocities?
Great great pleasure to listen to honorable professor Stephen Kotkin.You really learn a lot and get empowered yourself by his lecture❤❤
Professor Kotkin is the gift that keeps on giving. Living the American dream. Love how he is educating his children....laying out options but letting his children choose their path. Smart. C.G. Jung said once that the greatest burden we can put on our children is our own unlived lives. Every human in unique....we must each find our own path to wholeness. An I agree wholeheartedly that living in another country for a substantial period of time give you a better understanding of America and makes you a better American. (I lived in Australia for 7.5 years). God Bless Professor Kotkin and God Bless the USA!
That was a great conversation. And also a really great concept. Win the War, lose the peace, or the other way around ...
P.S. why does professor Kotkin remind me of Joe Pesci, including voice ?
I was going to say that - Joe might sue him for taking him off. Your right though - once you get over the voice he is fascinating and so smart
Did you post this just to amuse me? :)
Why the need to go to war in the first place? Fail diplomacy for sure. Why do the young need to die in a war where the adults and old men/ women have no diplomacy in their heads at all...
What Stephen Kotkin offering here, is another type of Budapest memorandum. We know how that worked
В 2014 США нарушили первую статью меморандума, в которой обязывались уважать независимость и суверенитет Украины. А спонсировав смену власти они сделали Украину своим сателлитом, уничтожив их независимость. Так что нет больше никакого меморандума. Спасибо Сша за Крым 👍 😂
@@villigutvilligut4201 Excuse me, I do not speak russian. I only know in russian "пошел нахуй, скотина"
@villigutvilligut4201 with Russia interfering in Ukrainian internal affairs even before that? SHUT THE F OFF RUSSOBOT.
The Crimean occupation was just the first act of war tbh. If political intervention is concerned, Putin and his lackeys have been dashed ever since the 2004 Orange Revolution.😂👎🇷🇺
@@villigutvilligut4201 Russia broke the memorandum already 11 years earlier, in 2003 Russia and started the "escalation" by building the dam in the street of Kerch towards the island of Kossa Tusla without prior talks with Ukraine.
@@villigutvilligut4201пнх
Is anyone else staring at his incredible collection of books? Kotkin is easily the world's preeminent commentator on Russia, communism, and geopolitics, and every time I listen to him speak, I'm reminded of the astonishing depth and breadth of his intellect. I cannot wait to read the last book in his Stalin trilogy.
Lol, by spreading pathetic propaganda
I had the great fortunte to live in Peru, Spain, and Phillipines as a kid before settling in the USA. My view of the world widened, and I developed an uncommon compassion, as my friends tell me. Kotkin speaks of the wisedom gained by living abroad at least once in a person's life.
What a strange arc of history that Michel Foucault was the professor who recommended Stephen Kotkin to analyze Stalinism. Foucault wasn't a Marxist but he is a real hero to the left, while Kotkin might be the world's best critic of Stalinism. Life is funny
Hopefully, we go where the truth takes us.
not funny but tragic.
Stalin was creator of one of the worst totalitarian warmongering regimes every existed, with no regard for human life in the name of “stoking the fire of world revolution”
I don’t know if that can be characterized as “leftist”
What a fascinating and illuminating interview! It is so validating to hear Mr Kotkin mirror my thoughts on Ukrainian so thoroughly. I also would use the example of Korea to model a peace in Ukraine. The current stalemated war is incredibly destructive and serves no purpose. An armistice could allow Ukraine to rebuild, and could allow the West to become a guarantor of a Ukraine free of endless war. It is time to end the corrosive status quo.
Absolutely fantastic, gentlemen. Thank you both!
I would love to hear what prof. Kotkin reckons will happen to the West after Trump wins the election. Specifically, when he questions NATO's Article 5. If anyone who is about to interview him is reading this, can you please ask him? That's the #1 question I think.
The analysis by Stephen Kotkin, confirms my suspicion that his background is in mathematics. The reasoning is lucid and organized within a logical and structured framework. Facts and events are presented to support or diminish other theses in a coherent fashion. More reason why liberal arts majors should be required to take courses in mathematics and physics. Great interview.
I beg to differ. Kotkin is way too invested, both emotionally and intellectually, in the invincible and inexhaustible power of the West. He does not look at the erosion of Western power and Western capacities. For him, the West is in fact stronger than "we believe". He is setting himself up for a rude awakening.
I must confess I had either forgotten or didn't know that South Korea was technically still are war with North Korea has done a remarkable job of winning the peace. It is these sorts of insights that Stephen brings to the table with a fluidity that only comes from decades of analysis and thought. I never bore of hearing him talk. His analysis is rooted in reality, not "principled" assertions of what should morally apply. Some people find this offensive but they occupy a different reality. An example is his explanation for the Ukranians not being able to regain all that Russia has taken - morally they are entitled to get it back but they would have to take Moscow and that isn't going to happen. Diplomats have been operating in this intellectual space for eternity.
There is no more argument in Ukraine to take territory back, but not to lose more. russia is still absolutely sure the US and Europe will eventually back away, and Ukraine will collapse. And there is still no resolve to prove putin wrong.
Who are the poor Ukrainian sods that have to play the North Koreans in this scenario?
Professor Kotkin would make an excellent Secretary of State.
Spot on Mr Kotkin! I was exposed to travel at an early age..driving from England to Istanbul twice! Lived in Istanbul twice for a year...I learned empathy and that the world is a big place...loved this interview and GO BEARS!!
I love it when he talks about the "rules based order". Anglo cultural blindness. In effect, be like us and we will like you. What makes you think Russians don't have a rules based order or that they don't have an institutional order. Does Kotkin apply the same standards to Israel? Speaking of the rules based order.
It's an AMERICAN "rules-based order": some rules are observed, other rules are ignored, and yet another category of rules is enforced selectively.
More than that, who says that rules cannot be manipulated to favor a particular set of deeply entrenched interests? The US after 1991 undertook to consolidate its global sway and promoted a whole bunch of legal norms which buttress this sway. Some countries took advantage of these rules - China, for instance. China gradually used American resources in order to augment its own international capacities and when the US realized that China was quickly catching up to potentially challenge American primacy, the US lurched towards aggressive protectionism vis-a-vis Beijing and realized suddenly that the policies of close engagement with China were not leading to the erosion of China's stubborn commitment to remain a geopolitical and a geoeconomic pole in world order but to the strengthening of this commitment. All of this proves an important fact: the US is not prepared to tolerate any power which is seen as presenting a challenge to American supremacy in the global context.
The Russki Mir is INFERIOR if it is to be examined, and that is why it lost most of its conflicts and especially the Cold War. It is not the matter that the "rules based international order" is flawed. Are the alternatives presented to us any better than it? Russki Mir is showing it is not, neither is the Chinese neo-colonial debt diplomacy working to its most ardent supporters either. 😅😂👎🇷🇺🇨🇳
“Rules-based international order” is just a euphemism for “Anglo-American Empire”. Which is fine, but call a spade a spade.
@troublesometruck8303 you want an alternative for that as you brand it that way? Do you desire the Russki Mir? For you want the multi-polar order that led to two World Wars? I am calling out what you think you are calling out.
Stephen Kotkin is gold
Steven King
this interview with his interest in science and biology now i know why he mentions so many things about what medical school talk about with students to make them stuck in thinking just one way about it, very interesting now it all makes sense, but anyway just listen to his history and polictics and he is pure gold
love listening to Stephen Kotkin
Fellow historian with a similar background in Eastern Europe and East Asia here. I don't understand why Kotkin's views would be controversial.
He’s not controversial. He’s a very mainstream liberal hegemonist as John Mearsheimer would say. Liberal hegemony has been one big failure after another.
God. Please don't compare him to Jordan Peterson. Kotkin is his own man!
Right? Only a wanker like Niall Ferguson could have come up with that insulting comparison. Of course, Professor Kotkin was above it and easily swatted it away with humorous self deprecation.
I'm pretty sure Niall Ferguson was just poking fun at Stephen Kotkin, perhaps out of envy, who knows. It's always awkward. Kotkin never seems to take the bait.
First time watching Kotkin, not bad, some of the sentences he coined are so usable in day to day analysis that you know you are speaking with an expert that knows how to sell a story.
Amazing
A pleasure to listen to a pleasant, well-educated intellectual. Cordial greetings from Lietuva Lithuania.
2022: winning the war
2024: winning the peace
2026: winning the defeat
2028: let's talk about something else
brilliant
as a complexologist i'm disappointed that this otherwise brilliant historian lives in utopia when it comes to today's world. his "solutions" lead to your paradigm, which -funny enough- repeats and repeats, and nobody draws the correct lessons
It's sad that your tiny brain doesn't understand anything.
He talked about "winning the peace" back in early 2023 at least. Stop strawmanning.