Watch Matt lie, cheat and decive his teamates in The Getaway here: bit.ly/ECTheGetaway or Watch Identiteaze exclusively on Nebula - bit.ly/ECIdentiteaze Thanks for Watching!
Ori and the Blind Forest did that "thin slicing" really well. You didn't have much in the way of combat in that game, and so most of the mechanics relied on movement, especially in the boss battles, in which you had to flee, making split second hunches about which direction to go for what seemed like a couple minutes. The cool part was, most of those split second decisions were right, cleverly nudging the player each step of the way.
Lack of combat (rather, combat being pretty much automatic) was precisely what felt off to me compared to other metroidvanias of the time The chain slingshot jumps were dope, though
Teacher here! Whats extra fun (read: confounding) about the "skip all the math steps" kids is that, in my experience, theyre right about 70-75% of the time at peak. And because they've made a habit of ignoring steps and thin slicing, like Matt says, when they are wrong, it's often really difficult to explain to them why they are wrong. They feel the process, but don't really understand what's happening to the numbers. Which makes them frustrated. But slowing down to learn the steps properly is also frustrating, so it's a real bear when there are difficulty spikes in math concepts (show me a lesson on division and ill show you a TIRED teacher haha). And for extra fun, because they're skipping steps, theyre probably not writing down their work either, so you can't even see where the mistake occurred without a fine tooth comb. Or their work is so sloppy and disorganized that THEY can't even understand it. The experienced teacher spends a good amount of time building up a trusting relationship with those kids so that they'll believe you when you ask them to go on the step-writing journey with you!
Very true. Personally, I spent a lot of time without writing steps and just knowing growing up, definitely better than 75% throughout elementary school. So...yeah, I was not happy losing points by not writing steps. But for the teachers who simply explained why I needed to write steps, and still gave a majority of points for correct answers, I didn't feel as frustrated.
@@marshalljarnagin9370meanwhile my teacher was just honest 💀 she just said you can use a calculator but to write down steps so the examiner thinks we did it without a calculator and we can get Marks LMAO
It's actually funny that despite things being purely random with no bias whatsoever, somehow there are patterns that have become super popular. A famous one in MMORPGs, the more you want something, the less likely it's going to drop. And while it does indeed happen once in a while, it's mostly because of negative events having a stronger impact on our perception, and the average luck evens out over a long period of time.
This reminds me of what I think of as the LEGO effect: When fishing through a box of LEGOs, I can find every piece except the one I'm looking for, but as soon as I start looking for a different piece, that previous search target is absolutely everywhere.
@@Sina-dv1egmy luck is actually the wildest thing ever 💀 and I know it's purely random but man, I remember counting at least 100 coincidences to happen to me, including one that literally saved me on my exam because of my good luck 😭
It definitely seems to be explaining, or at leas alluding to, beginner's luck. A common, visible example is when streamers on Soulslikes do pretty darn good the first time they go against a boss, then struggle on further attempts for a while. Which makes me wonder if Fromsoft and other devs compensates for this in some manner, one way or the other.
I think that kind of first-try skill isn't of the game affecting you, but rather your interpretation affecting you. The first time, you rely completely on intuition as to what you need to do, and can get pretty far, but the next attempts you rely on memory, and what you _think_ you need to do. I've experienced this kind of thing a few times in Celeste.
I wonder how much that has to do with perception bias. You'd expect beginners to be bad, and most of the time they are, so you forget about those times because it's normal. But every once in a while, beginners (by random chance) do really well their first time. Those events are special (or, at least, uncommon) and stand out in your mind, so it seems like it should be attributed to something other than chance.
Beginners luck is def real. When I was new to cookie run kingdom, even when wishing for one, I'd get a ridiculous epic or smth crazy. Now I wish 50 and only ever get rares 😭
2:26 This is less about pattern recognition and more about people not having a great understanding about statistics work. In this instance, conflating independent and dependent probabilities.
@@bombkirbyThat's still not related to pattern recognition. If it was, the player would be making an assumption about the next shot based on previous experiences (ex: I will probably miss again, since there since it happened twice despite the high to hit % or I will probably hit next time so my average hit percentage (for this particular encounter) skews closer to what I have observed so far when firing at enemies with this hut %.)
@@bensteinhauser784 Humans tend to assume randomness follows a relatively consistant pattern ie: Flipping a coin we see HTHHTTHTTH as more random than HHHHHTTTTT even though the odds of both are the same.
3:39 - I distinctly remember it being revealed the newer XCOM games (Enemy Unknown onward) explicitly invisibly cheated the player's odds up. Didn't stop people from thinking that a >50% chance means "will hit" and throwing a fit about the prediction being "wrong" whenever it didn't work, though. Reminded in turn of two meteorologists in Hungary who were fired for "predicting rain" (ie: forecasting it was likelier to rain than not) and were fired when it didn't rain, after they'd already canceled a fireworks display. People are just kinda terrible at understanding how chance works, I think. I suspect the rate of false positives on there being "something up" with a particular probability is way higher than false negatives (failing to detect when something is actually being hidden).
Every game should have a practice room with feedback where you can test out game mechanics to see how they work without consuming resources or risking death. One thing I hate is when games give you a powerful ability, but with resource constraints so you can't overuse it. But that means you rarely get the chance to use it to figure out when is the best time or way to use it. That uncertainty makes you not the ability, making having it in the game pointless.
I don't think I've ever complained about ads on RUclips, but just this once I'm going to. The ad for The Getaway started at 6:30. This video is only 9 minutes long. Combine that with the teaser ad after the opening credit, and this video is almost 1/3 ad. I recognize that the revenue is necessary for making this show I love (hence why I don't complain about ads on RUclips generally), but that is absurd. The video was really interesting, but by the end I was thinking more about this service I'm not going to buy (sorry) than the actual interesting and important subject at hand.
Yeah, I was skipping thinking "When do they get back to the episode?" and so disappointed to realize that was it. I hit Dislike and I don't remember the last time I did that here.
But, from what I remember, every Extra Credits video is like this, with the Ad at the end. And I think it is the perfect placement (for me as a viewer), because when the Ad starts, I just close the video and go on with my life
A really interesting version of this actually occurs in Pokémon Yellow. Veteran players of Blue and Red may have had ideas for where certain objects might be or make choices that give them advantages on the first 2 gyms. However now you come in with that knowledge but instead have no choice on starters. You may know what is coming, but now you have to make a whole new strategy up
I participated in one of those experiments! The rules: Pick 1 of 4 options, if you get it right, you win money, but there's a catch... The money you can win changes each round. Two players play, and you can bet to go first, highest bet goes first. If you go first, 3 of the options will give you the win. If you go second, only 1 option will let you win. *But if you're player 1, and you lose, you lose your bet.* Player 2 has no risk. Conclusion: People tend to bet more when there's more money on the line, but also lose more as a result. And so... never bet, and you'll win around 8.25% of the time with no risk. Only 2 people walked away with more than a few dollars.
Player 2 is logically the better choice cause the chance of losing gets lower cause the number of options is lower meaning that the chance of picking the wrong option is lower
@@someaccount5200 My bad, the odds are almost 12% for player 2, not 8%. It's mostly the loss that tips the scale though, Player 1 loses money if they get it wrong, while Player 2 slowly accumulates money.
If I had a nickel everytime an Extra credits video had a psychonauts reference, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot but it's weird that it happened twice.
I feel like a good example of this is elemental weaknesses in video games. When there is an element system people usually figure out what's weak to what pretty quickly. Most of the time its intuitive, like ice being weak to fire and fire being weak to water, but there are times where it isn't clear and you feel like it will work. I know when i see a big bulky looking enemy, i instinctively will gravitate towards hard hitting physical or magic attacks, and tend to avoid low damage moves or projectiles.
Either I am very, very, very, VERY bad at "thin slicing," or I instinctively distrust it so much that I refuse to heed it. Because if I act on hunches, I always lose. I have to analyze things to the Nth degree to have a shot at getting it right.
The problem with X-com was that it produced the same result when you reloaded, and people not realising that would reload and experience missing a 95% shot as many times as they reloaded. Not everybody discovered the fixed outcomes but just noticed the random chances were messed up. Add to that a "bug" in the first version of the new X-Com series where some enemies would dodge after you "hit" them. The later fixed that bug by at least giving one point of damage, so a miss due to a later dodge didn't look like a miss.
I think this has been very clear when watching League content creators playing the new Bullet Heaven mode, compared to us who already played some BH games, like the order of upgrades and priorities.
After decades of various mental health things, which can result in memory loss and brain fog, I rely on Thin slicing to guide my day to day. You just sort of feel it... Like fridge thoughts/shower thoughts.
So glad I got my $200 lifetime nebula deal yonks ago. The price will only go up if they even continue to do them and there's so much good stuff on nebula.
Wait wait wait…. Is nebula doing ok? If there is ONE THING I have learned from the gaming industry, it’s that life time subscriptions are essentially death saving throws…. Except it’s a nat20 or fail…
So it's your "gut feeling?" Or at least one kind of gut feeling. Gut feeling 1) "You're considering doing something that will get you killed, dumbass. Back off." Gut feeling 2) "Something's off, but I'm not telling you what. Good luck!" The second is what some people credit "precognitive" fear to, as in the thought that something bad is going to happen and you just know it. It's not that you supernaturally knew something, but that your mind subconsciously picked up on someone's strange stance, a weird bit of news, an uncommon car, etc. and put together some alarm bells without telling your consciousness _why._
no offense but could y'all stop making Nebula even more amazing? I'm bloody poor and all my favorite creators dangling golden carrots over my head nearly every single video is getting beyond insulting.
Also gotta spec for Neurodivergent players, who commonly intuit things differently from Neurotypical players. Better or worse, but different. I detest forced tutorials. I'm ADHD and suspect AuDHD. Being forced to prove to the game that I know basic controls is torture. I'm also a Spade, so being allowed to figure out some of the mechanics on my own is fun and even enthralling. But with other mechanics, it's frustrating to not be told clearly why my intuition doesn't match up with my experience. In my experience with gaming, the time to run the tutorial is NOT the start of the game. Have a section where you need to manage a few basic mechanics to progress, sure -- *Design Club* showed how easy that was with Super Mario. But save the more complicated tutorial for an opt-in section later on, with readable text explanations for players like me who will eventually run to the wiki to grasp certain mechanics.
I’ve delved into a bit of different “Randomization” programming. Some of it is pure random, some methods use seeds, sometimes certain game actions advance your position of the seed, sometimes the predicted outcome of a result is not using the same formula that the actual algorithms use, some have adjusted odds where the game recalculates using real-time sampling to reduce outliers to get closer to a normal distribution. Sometimes there’s parallel random number generators… binomial coefficients… which comes to the hypergeometic distribution… resampling for permutations… lady tasting tea… more complicated than ever imagined
5:00 Actually me when I tried playing the modern Fallout games. I assumed they simulate bullet physics, but my accuracy always seem to worsen whenever I compensated for bullet drop and travel time. Turns out none of them do that. All the of plasma weapons use a ray-cast (has travel time, but no drop), while all of the bullet and laser weapons use a simple hit-scan. For hit-scan ranged weapons, damage is instantly applied to whatever hitbox the pc is facing whenever the player press the attack button, while considering the values of relevant skills and some element of true randomness. I blame bad design. The reticle on some weapon scopes implied that it _does_ simulate bullet physics.
I feel like most games could help alleviate this by simply allowing you to skip the tutorial at any point *in* the tutorial, even, and especially so, before it starts. This also bumps up against another topic you've covered which is assumed knowledge. If you've played dozens of shhooters you probably already know that one control stick is move and the other is look. You will know to squeeze the triggers to...well squeeze the trigger. You don't need to be taught to do that stuff over and over. A smart way some games fo this is by asking right at the start something along the lines of "how familiar are you with [game genre]?" And then let you pick from a few familiarity levels. If you day you're an expert, then the game just drops you right in with perhaps some notes about any changes to controls from the standard layout. If you day this is your first time ever then it should be very easy to deduce that the game will put some training wheels on until you gain enough confidence. A great example that comes to mind is Stellaris. The game asks right at the start how much advisor you want, and you can change it in the menu at any time.
Currently studying machine learning, and this problem give a huge "Multi Armed Bandit" vibe. Can be solved using Thompson Sampling, epsilon-greedy, A/B/n algorithms
If a game has a chunky tutorial at the start it's guaranteed I'm not retaining any of that stuff. The new TMNT game (or another fighting game I'm confusing with it) had a very long winded tutorial that didn't have you do the stuff. Like just videos. But also most of the city builder and similar idle mobile games have tutorials that just teach me how to follow along with the tutorial highlighting. Then leaves me completely lost the moment it's not telling me what button to press.
one time i was playing slime rancher for the first time on someone else's ranch and i almost killed the player but instinctively held the jump button (which if you have the jetpack and you're in the air pressing the jump button makes you fly) and barely saved the player, so i knew before i knew i knew
"The true goal of this experiment [is to] figure out how long it takes the participants to discover [that the decks have different distributions and net odds]." I know my brain is kinda broken, and I've got more math training than average, but... do most participants not consider that from the start? My very first thoughts as the puzzle was introduced were "I need to know the distribution of cards in the different decks. Am I allowed to look at the decks first? Or do I have to learn by experimentation?" *Edit:* After finishing the video, I'm even _more_ fascinated by this. Because I'm not sure I would be able to consciously tell in 10 cards, even intentionally looking to figure out the weights. I might guess that the deck with big numbers was the bad one, and the deck with small numbers is the good one, but that would be a guess based on likely experiment design rather than the cards themselves. That would be very easily subverted.
Without looking at the actual study myself, the way it's presented it seems possible the participants might gravitate towards the better deck because of lower risk, rather than intuited higher long-term reward.
Hmm. I did not know there was a specific term for this. Well now I can speak with confidence and tell people that I am particularly good at thin slicing. Especially in anything that invloves the air, or space.
Back when I was in high school, I was on the bridge team (card game). I was actually really good at bridge when I played, but I could never explain why I should make any move. Like I, I never felt like an intellectually understood the game but I was good at it.
I was really hoping they're going to use the Elden ring cave tutorial as an example I think it's pretty spot on to what they're talking about this episode maybe they'll make a short
If I was a game developer, I would only accept bug reports relating to random rolls if they were in the player's favor. It's easy to want self serving changes, but if you tell me you're hitting too many long odds shots I'll know it's actually a problem.
People need to realize that tutorials are not there because game developers think people are stupid, they just want a safety net. My personal hot take is that Navi and the other Zelda companion characters where clever in design that they hinted at answers instead of giving them flat out.
It's all the so-called "Rule of 3". Picking cards from 4 decks only to see a pattern on the tenth card? It means you picked 3 cards from at least two decks.
Ok this is WEIRD. I'm gonna go on an Animal Jam-related tangent rq Last night, I was trying to explain to myself why I was so good at the Falling Phsntoms minigame. Basically, you move left and right to avoid getting hit by things (phantoms) moving downward at linear paths of varying slopes. Idk jow long each round takes, but its the same amount of time every time and there's a clock in the upper-left corner (out of the way of everything). It starts off with just a few phantoms that are easy to track and sidestep away from, but as it goes on the sky turns yellow and it becomes total chaos with phantoms of all sorts of different sizes and speeds coming down all at once. Still possible to survive to the very end, though. Now- for some reason, I couldn't for the life of me explain how I knew when and where I could move at any given time. I tried to explain how I deal with the beginning: Keeping my eyes generally at the top-middle of my phone screen, glancing at each phantom as they come only long enough to determine where they're going + size/speed. if a phantom spawns away from you at a sharp diagonal towards you, move toward it so that it'll safely pass above you. If it's a very slight, almost vertical diagonal right next to you, move away from it. But I tried to explain anything beyond that and the only thing I could day was "pure focus". Eyes darting more to watch just above my character while I'm dashing through unbelievably tight yet survivable spaces. Practically weaving through the phantoms and changing direction/stopping as needed (childhood favorite minigame go brrrrr). I couldn't explain it beyond that. But for SOME _WILD_ REASON, I could explain the game ALGEBRAICALLY/GEOMETRICALLY TO SOME DEGREE???? HUH????? Because the floor is like the X axis and wherever you are you have like your own personal Y-axis that moves with you and y = mx + b the _crap_ outta the game which is why I said slopes instead of diagonals earlier because every phantom is like a point moving at a randomly determined diagonal (sometimes its just straight vertical but never horizontal ("sharp diagonals are more horizontal while "slight" diagonals are more vertical in this game's case; the way Im using 'em, at least)), and if point phantom ever collides with point you, you lose. Bigger phantoms are more like circles; avoid point you colliding with any point on the circumference of circle phantom. On top of that, imaginary right triangles are friking EVERYWHERE, which, uhhh, pythagorean (?????) Theorem???? Phantom path's the hypotinuse? Friiiik my phone's predictive text isn't telling me how to spell these words- Anyway- I suck at algebra why am I noticing THIS and not _how the hell do I know that it's possible to go this way right now????_
The reason people say things like 'i just rolled two 1's in a row so the next roll has gotta be good' is because we all fundamentally know that rolling a bunch of 1's in a row is unlikely. The next roll may be independent, but independent isn't ENTIRELY independent, else we wouldn't see a drop off in the number of people who have rolled '1' a certain number of times in a row. The chance of being a person who got ten '1's in a row are quite low.
@@CassiusZedaker-pr7kc There's a lot more to 'rock paper scissors' than mere random chance. If you look deep enough, you see that it's not actually random at all. A dice roll, however, is effectively random.
Nitpicking here but are not the random bonkers interactions between items one the actual points of The Binding of Isaac? ;p Like yeah sucks when you get your damage tanked, but kind of rules when you get a massive tears UP + bomb tears :D. My point being is if it all was explained it would be a incomprehensible wall of text next to each item.
That's the design intent, but many people feel like they have to know before picking an item, so they consider it mandatory to have platinumgod open all the time to look everything up.
On that point where players feel it's rigged when they miss 2 75% accurate moves, I'm surprised you didn't do something Pokemon related in the gag since there's a meme that if a move isn't 100% accurate it's 50% accurate, even tho obviously that's not true. Tip for players as a player, when you do get a miss on a 95% accurate move in a game, remember that you've probably rolled the dice a lot before reaching that miss, so it makes sense.
When playing Town of Salem as town escpesially powerful town roles some times I have gut feeling someone is evil but I don't deal with them. And then later found out they were evil. In other times that isn't the case. And another time I make mistake.
Most math teachers are horrible at connecting with students and describing the reason behind something. So the show your work argument has become a feature of class. Most teachers like to start with because you're supposed to and I was always thinking the teacher was just bad at math as they needed a step by step for basic math answers. If more teachers explained to the rationale rather than dealing with it as a challenge to their authority I feel it would prepare them better for higher maths.
I certainly remember that part of maths. I got complaints from the teacher that my explanations were too long. No mention of them being right or not - just that they were too long. But they said we should write down how we got the answer, so... Teachers certainly suck sometimes.
the math problem, oh yes, so, so much, all the time, i found out the result and then lost points because my step by step didn't follow the teacher's method which, as adult now, i do understand, gut feeling might give you solutions on the lower levels, but if you want to go further in math, you need actual good methodological foundations but as a kid, it was so annoying!
What disability does one have if they _cannot_ "thin slice"? If the only way they know about the cards is if they consciously do the math and estimate gains?
Can't say I've heard of that, and while it feels like it makes sense that it may be a real disability it seems more likely that it just isn't real. (While there are some real disabilities that seem like they shouldn't be able to real, some that are imagined make sense to exist just don't/can't. I couldn't say for sure, I'm no expert, so this is just my thoughts.) Either way, I doubt any person could realize such a condition about themselves because thin slicing is not part of conscious thought. Likewise, assuming that may be a person's problem is also "impossible" because they could just be not acting on those intuitive feelings regardless. On top of that, being overly nervous/fearful/etc. can lead a person to ignore their best intuitive readings and even alter how the brain processes them.
@@JarieSuicune The thing is, _I_ don't believe I can "thin slice" - _and_ I don't seem to have any connection to my "gut". I don't "ignore" intuitive readings; I literally can't access them no matter how much I try.
@@RickJaeger Arguably the point of science is to predict future phenomenon. Saying that something might be type a, b, or a combination of the two doesn't help us predict much.
I still think it's unethical for game devs to lie about probabilities, games should help people build accurate intuitions, not reinforce our existing flawed logic
Watch Matt lie, cheat and decive his teamates in The Getaway here: bit.ly/ECTheGetaway or
Watch Identiteaze exclusively on Nebula - bit.ly/ECIdentiteaze
Thanks for Watching!
Ha
❤
Ori and the Blind Forest did that "thin slicing" really well. You didn't have much in the way of combat in that game, and so most of the mechanics relied on movement, especially in the boss battles, in which you had to flee, making split second hunches about which direction to go for what seemed like a couple minutes. The cool part was, most of those split second decisions were right, cleverly nudging the player each step of the way.
Lack of combat (rather, combat being pretty much automatic) was precisely what felt off to me compared to other metroidvanias of the time
The chain slingshot jumps were dope, though
Always remember that Ori isn’t an indie game, it was made by an offshoot of a triple A company
Teacher here! Whats extra fun (read: confounding) about the "skip all the math steps" kids is that, in my experience, theyre right about 70-75% of the time at peak. And because they've made a habit of ignoring steps and thin slicing, like Matt says, when they are wrong, it's often really difficult to explain to them why they are wrong. They feel the process, but don't really understand what's happening to the numbers. Which makes them frustrated. But slowing down to learn the steps properly is also frustrating, so it's a real bear when there are difficulty spikes in math concepts (show me a lesson on division and ill show you a TIRED teacher haha). And for extra fun, because they're skipping steps, theyre probably not writing down their work either, so you can't even see where the mistake occurred without a fine tooth comb. Or their work is so sloppy and disorganized that THEY can't even understand it.
The experienced teacher spends a good amount of time building up a trusting relationship with those kids so that they'll believe you when you ask them to go on the step-writing journey with you!
Very true. Personally, I spent a lot of time without writing steps and just knowing growing up, definitely better than 75% throughout elementary school. So...yeah, I was not happy losing points by not writing steps. But for the teachers who simply explained why I needed to write steps, and still gave a majority of points for correct answers, I didn't feel as frustrated.
FffffRAHHHHHHH IS THIS WHY I SUCK AT ALGEBRA
@@marshalljarnagin9370meanwhile my teacher was just honest 💀 she just said you can use a calculator but to write down steps so the examiner thinks we did it without a calculator and we can get Marks LMAO
Whatever you’re getting paid, it’s not enough.
It's actually funny that despite things being purely random with no bias whatsoever, somehow there are patterns that have become super popular. A famous one in MMORPGs, the more you want something, the less likely it's going to drop. And while it does indeed happen once in a while, it's mostly because of negative events having a stronger impact on our perception, and the average luck evens out over a long period of time.
This reminds me of what I think of as the LEGO effect: When fishing through a box of LEGOs, I can find every piece except the one I'm looking for, but as soon as I start looking for a different piece, that previous search target is absolutely everywhere.
I know a DnD GM who literally buffed one of their players' characters because "they are so unlucky it's a disadvantage for them"
@@Sina-dv1eg That's amazing. XD
@@Sina-dv1egmy luck is actually the wildest thing ever 💀 and I know it's purely random but man, I remember counting at least 100 coincidences to happen to me, including one that literally saved me on my exam because of my good luck 😭
It definitely seems to be explaining, or at leas alluding to, beginner's luck.
A common, visible example is when streamers on Soulslikes do pretty darn good the first time they go against a boss, then struggle on further attempts for a while. Which makes me wonder if Fromsoft and other devs compensates for this in some manner, one way or the other.
I think that kind of first-try skill isn't of the game affecting you, but rather your interpretation affecting you. The first time, you rely completely on intuition as to what you need to do, and can get pretty far, but the next attempts you rely on memory, and what you _think_ you need to do. I've experienced this kind of thing a few times in Celeste.
I wonder how much that has to do with perception bias. You'd expect beginners to be bad, and most of the time they are, so you forget about those times because it's normal. But every once in a while, beginners (by random chance) do really well their first time. Those events are special (or, at least, uncommon) and stand out in your mind, so it seems like it should be attributed to something other than chance.
Beginners luck is def real. When I was new to cookie run kingdom, even when wishing for one, I'd get a ridiculous epic or smth crazy. Now I wish 50 and only ever get rares 😭
@@TamWam_ That's probably the game's RNG intentionally screwing you over for more money.
love the fact that you finally admit that your real name is not ''Matt'' but 'Zoey's Dad'. FINALLY THIS DECEPTION HAS BEEN UNCOVERED!!!!
2:26 This is less about pattern recognition and more about people not having a great understanding about statistics work. In this instance, conflating independent and dependent probabilities.
It’s still pattern recognition. “Thing that should have worked didn’t work twice in a row, wtf”
@@bombkirbyThat's still not related to pattern recognition. If it was, the player would be making an assumption about the next shot based on previous experiences (ex: I will probably miss again, since there since it happened twice despite the high to hit % or I will probably hit next time so my average hit percentage (for this particular encounter) skews closer to what I have observed so far when firing at enemies with this hut %.)
@@bensteinhauser784
Humans tend to assume randomness follows a relatively consistant pattern ie:
Flipping a coin we see
HTHHTTHTTH as more random than
HHHHHTTTTT even though the odds of both are the same.
@@solsystem1342 The latter has lower entropy, which I would assume probably explains why it "feels" less random.
@@solsystem1342tbh I do remember getting heads 6 times in a row and that drove me wild 💀
3:39 - I distinctly remember it being revealed the newer XCOM games (Enemy Unknown onward) explicitly invisibly cheated the player's odds up. Didn't stop people from thinking that a >50% chance means "will hit" and throwing a fit about the prediction being "wrong" whenever it didn't work, though. Reminded in turn of two meteorologists in Hungary who were fired for "predicting rain" (ie: forecasting it was likelier to rain than not) and were fired when it didn't rain, after they'd already canceled a fireworks display. People are just kinda terrible at understanding how chance works, I think. I suspect the rate of false positives on there being "something up" with a particular probability is way higher than false negatives (failing to detect when something is actually being hidden).
Every game should have a practice room with feedback where you can test out game mechanics to see how they work without consuming resources or risking death. One thing I hate is when games give you a powerful ability, but with resource constraints so you can't overuse it. But that means you rarely get the chance to use it to figure out when is the best time or way to use it. That uncertainty makes you not the ability, making having it in the game pointless.
What do you think Noita should do?
I don't think I've ever complained about ads on RUclips, but just this once I'm going to.
The ad for The Getaway started at 6:30. This video is only 9 minutes long. Combine that with the teaser ad after the opening credit, and this video is almost 1/3 ad. I recognize that the revenue is necessary for making this show I love (hence why I don't complain about ads on RUclips generally), but that is absurd. The video was really interesting, but by the end I was thinking more about this service I'm not going to buy (sorry) than the actual interesting and important subject at hand.
Yeah, I was skipping thinking "When do they get back to the episode?" and so disappointed to realize that was it. I hit Dislike and I don't remember the last time I did that here.
@@Latino-Gamer same, but I didn't dislike.
In fact I rarely press like or dislike.
It’s an awesome show though, so definitely worth pushing a bit extra for! :D but I might be biased by my jet lag fanboy-ism
But, from what I remember, every Extra Credits video is like this, with the Ad at the end.
And I think it is the perfect placement (for me as a viewer), because when the Ad starts, I just close the video and go on with my life
use the sponsorblock plugin
A really interesting version of this actually occurs in Pokémon Yellow. Veteran players of Blue and Red may have had ideas for where certain objects might be or make choices that give them advantages on the first 2 gyms. However now you come in with that knowledge but instead have no choice on starters. You may know what is coming, but now you have to make a whole new strategy up
I participated in one of those experiments!
The rules:
Pick 1 of 4 options, if you get it right, you win money, but there's a catch...
The money you can win changes each round.
Two players play, and you can bet to go first, highest bet goes first.
If you go first, 3 of the options will give you the win.
If you go second, only 1 option will let you win.
*But if you're player 1, and you lose, you lose your bet.*
Player 2 has no risk.
Conclusion:
People tend to bet more when there's more money on the line, but also lose more as a result.
And so... never bet, and you'll win around 8.25% of the time with no risk.
Only 2 people walked away with more than a few dollars.
Player 2 is logically the better choice cause the chance of losing gets lower cause the number of options is lower meaning that the chance of picking the wrong option is lower
@@someaccount5200 My bad, the odds are almost 12% for player 2, not 8%.
It's mostly the loss that tips the scale though, Player 1 loses money if they get it wrong, while Player 2 slowly accumulates money.
If I had a nickel everytime an Extra credits video had a psychonauts reference, I'd have 2 nickels, which isn't a lot but it's weird that it happened twice.
4:41, hey the person in the green shirt is wrong, 2+2 doesn’t equal 24.
Haha I get it
Γ5 anyone?
What about base 3 with the following characters:0=0, 1=4, 2=2
@@jai-kk5uu, it’s still worry, ‘cause 2+2 will stay the same. but now the person in the green shirt is saying 1! for the answer, which is just 1
I feel like a good example of this is elemental weaknesses in video games. When there is an element system people usually figure out what's weak to what pretty quickly. Most of the time its intuitive, like ice being weak to fire and fire being weak to water, but there are times where it isn't clear and you feel like it will work. I know when i see a big bulky looking enemy, i instinctively will gravitate towards hard hitting physical or magic attacks, and tend to avoid low damage moves or projectiles.
Either I am very, very, very, VERY bad at "thin slicing," or I instinctively distrust it so much that I refuse to heed it. Because if I act on hunches, I always lose. I have to analyze things to the Nth degree to have a shot at getting it right.
The problem with X-com was that it produced the same result when you reloaded, and people not realising that would reload and experience missing a 95% shot as many times as they reloaded. Not everybody discovered the fixed outcomes but just noticed the random chances were messed up. Add to that a "bug" in the first version of the new X-Com series where some enemies would dodge after you "hit" them. The later fixed that bug by at least giving one point of damage, so a miss due to a later dodge didn't look like a miss.
4:48 basically me in my math classes as a child, it was so boring. I got straight A+ but it was so boring
That Cuphead reviewer is never gonna see the end of that jump
I think this has been very clear when watching League content creators playing the new Bullet Heaven mode, compared to us who already played some BH games, like the order of upgrades and priorities.
3:33 that felt personal, especially after missing my first 99% hit chance sniper attack
Yeah, but from the second I saw that thumbnail I kinda got what the video was about, who needs all that extra explanation? ...
wait.
After decades of various mental health things, which can result in memory loss and brain fog, I rely on Thin slicing to guide my day to day. You just sort of feel it... Like fridge thoughts/shower thoughts.
So glad I got my $200 lifetime nebula deal yonks ago. The price will only go up if they even continue to do them and there's so much good stuff on nebula.
Wait wait wait…. Is nebula doing ok? If there is ONE THING I have learned from the gaming industry, it’s that life time subscriptions are essentially death saving throws…. Except it’s a nat20 or fail…
Nebula are going to be the next Netflix over being the next RUclips.
So it's your "gut feeling?" Or at least one kind of gut feeling.
Gut feeling 1) "You're considering doing something that will get you killed, dumbass. Back off."
Gut feeling 2) "Something's off, but I'm not telling you what. Good luck!"
The second is what some people credit "precognitive" fear to, as in the thought that something bad is going to happen and you just know it. It's not that you supernaturally knew something, but that your mind subconsciously picked up on someone's strange stance, a weird bit of news, an uncommon car, etc. and put together some alarm bells without telling your consciousness _why._
no offense but could y'all stop making Nebula even more amazing?
I'm bloody poor and all my favorite creators dangling golden carrots over my head nearly every single video is getting beyond insulting.
Variety already talked about Nebula as "niche alternative to Netflix" on their earlier published article!
A Few Hours Ago I Watched A Henry Stickmin "Finding The Refrences" Video.
I Think RUclips Is Spying On Me.
6:37 THAT FACE! LOLOLOL I'M DYING!
Also gotta spec for Neurodivergent players, who commonly intuit things differently from Neurotypical players. Better or worse, but different.
I detest forced tutorials. I'm ADHD and suspect AuDHD. Being forced to prove to the game that I know basic controls is torture. I'm also a Spade, so being allowed to figure out some of the mechanics on my own is fun and even enthralling. But with other mechanics, it's frustrating to not be told clearly why my intuition doesn't match up with my experience.
In my experience with gaming, the time to run the tutorial is NOT the start of the game. Have a section where you need to manage a few basic mechanics to progress, sure -- *Design Club* showed how easy that was with Super Mario. But save the more complicated tutorial for an opt-in section later on, with readable text explanations for players like me who will eventually run to the wiki to grasp certain mechanics.
Heh, that "Sad Onion" + "Brimstone" combo.
My ten years in Isaac has taught me that even though Brimstone is usually great, Sad Onion is *ALWAYS* good.
@@owenconant Unless you come across it with max tear rate, in which case it's entirely useless.
2:14 Hello fellow pattern recognisers.
TIL: People aren't idiots, they're just terminal thin-slicers
Hold up... something's not right, no Ahmed Ziad Turk? I feel lost in life
I’ve delved into a bit of different “Randomization” programming. Some of it is pure random, some methods use seeds, sometimes certain game actions advance your position of the seed, sometimes the predicted outcome of a result is not using the same formula that the actual algorithms use, some have adjusted odds where the game recalculates using real-time sampling to reduce outliers to get closer to a normal distribution. Sometimes there’s parallel random number generators… binomial coefficients… which comes to the hypergeometic distribution… resampling for permutations… lady tasting tea… more complicated than ever imagined
5:00 Actually me when I tried playing the modern Fallout games. I assumed they simulate bullet physics, but my accuracy always seem to worsen whenever I compensated for bullet drop and travel time.
Turns out none of them do that. All the of plasma weapons use a ray-cast (has travel time, but no drop), while all of the bullet and laser weapons use a simple hit-scan.
For hit-scan ranged weapons, damage is instantly applied to whatever hitbox the pc is facing whenever the player press the attack button, while considering the values of relevant skills and some element of true randomness.
I blame bad design. The reticle on some weapon scopes implied that it _does_ simulate bullet physics.
I'm guessing this is the reason why "Metas" always appear in competitive or strategy based games?
3:43 To be fair, the MTG Arena shuffler was recently proven to be rigged with a leak and experiments
I duxed chemistry without understanding it.
I feel like most games could help alleviate this by simply allowing you to skip the tutorial at any point *in* the tutorial, even, and especially so, before it starts.
This also bumps up against another topic you've covered which is assumed knowledge. If you've played dozens of shhooters you probably already know that one control stick is move and the other is look. You will know to squeeze the triggers to...well squeeze the trigger. You don't need to be taught to do that stuff over and over.
A smart way some games fo this is by asking right at the start something along the lines of "how familiar are you with [game genre]?" And then let you pick from a few familiarity levels. If you day you're an expert, then the game just drops you right in with perhaps some notes about any changes to controls from the standard layout. If you day this is your first time ever then it should be very easy to deduce that the game will put some training wheels on until you gain enough confidence.
A great example that comes to mind is Stellaris. The game asks right at the start how much advisor you want, and you can change it in the menu at any time.
Currently studying machine learning, and this problem give a huge "Multi Armed Bandit" vibe.
Can be solved using Thompson Sampling, epsilon-greedy, A/B/n algorithms
It's funny because the shuffler in MTG was rigged and hit chance in XCOM was ALSO RIGGED
Great job guys! Keep up the good work!
If a game has a chunky tutorial at the start it's guaranteed I'm not retaining any of that stuff. The new TMNT game (or another fighting game I'm confusing with it) had a very long winded tutorial that didn't have you do the stuff. Like just videos.
But also most of the city builder and similar idle mobile games have tutorials that just teach me how to follow along with the tutorial highlighting. Then leaves me completely lost the moment it's not telling me what button to press.
An interesting game about how probability in game is usually changed to make it feel more real is "the 95% threshold"
That is wrong. 2+2 equals 4, not equals 4!
I like unexpected factorials 😂
3:45 When an ~80% chance fails 8 times in a row. Sus
That’s about 3 in a million odds of happening, so it’s not impossible, yet it seems to happen slightly more than that
I call that part of my brain, Jeremy
one time i was playing slime rancher for the first time on someone else's ranch and i almost killed the player but instinctively held the jump button (which if you have the jetpack and you're in the air pressing the jump button makes you fly) and barely saved the player, so i knew before i knew i knew
"The true goal of this experiment [is to] figure out how long it takes the participants to discover [that the decks have different distributions and net odds]."
I know my brain is kinda broken, and I've got more math training than average, but... do most participants not consider that from the start?
My very first thoughts as the puzzle was introduced were "I need to know the distribution of cards in the different decks. Am I allowed to look at the decks first? Or do I have to learn by experimentation?"
*Edit:* After finishing the video, I'm even _more_ fascinated by this. Because I'm not sure I would be able to consciously tell in 10 cards, even intentionally looking to figure out the weights. I might guess that the deck with big numbers was the bad one, and the deck with small numbers is the good one, but that would be a guess based on likely experiment design rather than the cards themselves. That would be very easily subverted.
Without looking at the actual study myself, the way it's presented it seems possible the participants might gravitate towards the better deck because of lower risk, rather than intuited higher long-term reward.
Just realized i have been thin slicing my entire life
Hmm. I did not know there was a specific term for this. Well now I can speak with confidence and tell people that I am particularly good at thin slicing. Especially in anything that invloves the air, or space.
Back when I was in high school, I was on the bridge team (card game). I was actually really good at bridge when I played, but I could never explain why I should make any move. Like I, I never felt like an intellectually understood the game but I was good at it.
Honestly.... this all seems to support what I have always said. Tutorials should be easily skippable and off by default in sequels.
Disagree. They should be skippable using something from the game prior, however.
I was really hoping they're going to use the Elden ring cave tutorial as an example I think it's pretty spot on to what they're talking about this episode maybe they'll make a short
If I was a game developer, I would only accept bug reports relating to random rolls if they were in the player's favor. It's easy to want self serving changes, but if you tell me you're hitting too many long odds shots I'll know it's actually a problem.
Is this also how you just know when you're clicking on a rickroll link?
Sending love from Iowa!
People need to realize that tutorials are not there because game developers think people are stupid, they just want a safety net. My personal hot take is that Navi and the other Zelda companion characters where clever in design that they hinted at answers instead of giving them flat out.
you guys should try Untrusted cuz thats basically true social deduction game
Love your content guys! Thanks For this ❤❤❤❤
It's all the so-called "Rule of 3". Picking cards from 4 decks only to see a pattern on the tenth card? It means you picked 3 cards from at least two decks.
2 + 2 != 4!
2:23
It is a wild wasteland out there.
Yup I got so many needs details notes on my division homework
But i don't live in Iowa?
Ok this is WEIRD. I'm gonna go on an Animal Jam-related tangent rq
Last night, I was trying to explain to myself why I was so good at the Falling Phsntoms minigame. Basically, you move left and right to avoid getting hit by things (phantoms) moving downward at linear paths of varying slopes. Idk jow long each round takes, but its the same amount of time every time and there's a clock in the upper-left corner (out of the way of everything). It starts off with just a few phantoms that are easy to track and sidestep away from, but as it goes on the sky turns yellow and it becomes total chaos with phantoms of all sorts of different sizes and speeds coming down all at once. Still possible to survive to the very end, though.
Now- for some reason, I couldn't for the life of me explain how I knew when and where I could move at any given time. I tried to explain how I deal with the beginning: Keeping my eyes generally at the top-middle of my phone screen, glancing at each phantom as they come only long enough to determine where they're going + size/speed. if a phantom spawns away from you at a sharp diagonal towards you, move toward it so that it'll safely pass above you. If it's a very slight, almost vertical diagonal right next to you, move away from it. But I tried to explain anything beyond that and the only thing I could day was "pure focus". Eyes darting more to watch just above my character while I'm dashing through unbelievably tight yet survivable spaces. Practically weaving through the phantoms and changing direction/stopping as needed (childhood favorite minigame go brrrrr). I couldn't explain it beyond that.
But for SOME _WILD_ REASON, I could explain the game ALGEBRAICALLY/GEOMETRICALLY TO SOME DEGREE???? HUH????? Because the floor is like the X axis and wherever you are you have like your own personal Y-axis that moves with you and y = mx + b the _crap_ outta the game which is why I said slopes instead of diagonals earlier because every phantom is like a point moving at a randomly determined diagonal (sometimes its just straight vertical but never horizontal ("sharp diagonals are more horizontal while "slight" diagonals are more vertical in this game's case; the way Im using 'em, at least)), and if point phantom ever collides with point you, you lose. Bigger phantoms are more like circles; avoid point you colliding with any point on the circumference of circle phantom.
On top of that, imaginary right triangles are friking EVERYWHERE, which, uhhh, pythagorean (?????) Theorem???? Phantom path's the hypotinuse? Friiiik my phone's predictive text isn't telling me how to spell these words-
Anyway-
I suck at algebra why am I noticing THIS and not _how the hell do I know that it's possible to go this way right now????_
Oh no. An Imposter must have taken over the channel.
Zoey meow does sound pretty sus.
The reason people say things like 'i just rolled two 1's in a row so the next roll has gotta be good' is because we all fundamentally know that rolling a bunch of 1's in a row is unlikely. The next roll may be independent, but independent isn't ENTIRELY independent, else we wouldn't see a drop off in the number of people who have rolled '1' a certain number of times in a row.
The chance of being a person who got ten '1's in a row are quite low.
I once *tied* at Rock, Paper, Scissors seven times in a row, intentionally.
@@CassiusZedaker-pr7kc There's a lot more to 'rock paper scissors' than mere random chance. If you look deep enough, you see that it's not actually random at all. A dice roll, however, is effectively random.
2+2 is not equal to 4!
Nitpicking here but are not the random bonkers interactions between items one the actual points of The Binding of Isaac? ;p Like yeah sucks when you get your damage tanked, but kind of rules when you get a massive tears UP + bomb tears :D.
My point being is if it all was explained it would be a incomprehensible wall of text next to each item.
That's the design intent, but many people feel like they have to know before picking an item, so they consider it mandatory to have platinumgod open all the time to look everything up.
@@chrizzlybear5565
Fair enough I get that feeling I played plenty of games with the wiki opened in my life and it indeed hindered the experience.
1:11 why is the background purple between the leg and the doorway?
On that point where players feel it's rigged when they miss 2 75% accurate moves, I'm surprised you didn't do something Pokemon related in the gag since there's a meme that if a move isn't 100% accurate it's 50% accurate, even tho obviously that's not true.
Tip for players as a player, when you do get a miss on a 95% accurate move in a game, remember that you've probably rolled the dice a lot before reaching that miss, so it makes sense.
0:47 sorry but *PSYCHONAUTS EEEEEYYYYYYEEEEEAAAAAAAHHHHHHH!*
When playing Town of Salem as town escpesially powerful town roles some times I have gut feeling someone is evil but I don't deal with them. And then later found out they were evil. In other times that isn't the case. And another time I make mistake.
2:57 - 3:00 Big mismatch between art and audio. The art was a MTG game being played, while the audio was talking about draft.
I was pretty sure I knew what this video was going to say but I watched the whole thing just in case I was mostly right.....
30% of the videos run time is an AD, that's sus.
Is Nebula available in Australia? A lot of the new up-and-coming streaming services aren't as world wide yet :
Most math teachers are horrible at connecting with students and describing the reason behind something.
So the show your work argument has become a feature of class.
Most teachers like to start with because you're supposed to and I was always thinking the teacher was just bad at math as they needed a step by step for basic math answers.
If more teachers explained to the rationale rather than dealing with it as a challenge to their authority I feel it would prepare them better for higher maths.
I certainly remember that part of maths. I got complaints from the teacher that my explanations were too long. No mention of them being right or not - just that they were too long. But they said we should write down how we got the answer, so... Teachers certainly suck sometimes.
the math problem, oh yes, so, so much, all the time, i found out the result and then lost points because my step by step didn't follow the teacher's method
which, as adult now, i do understand, gut feeling might give you solutions on the lower levels, but if you want to go further in math, you need actual good methodological foundations
but as a kid, it was so annoying!
Wow that’s why you trust your gut!
Extra Credits is sus. Has been for years now.
Also: Apophenia is bad?
i clicked because of the amongus thumbnail, good video bte
What disability does one have if they _cannot_ "thin slice"? If the only way they know about the cards is if they consciously do the math and estimate gains?
Can't say I've heard of that, and while it feels like it makes sense that it may be a real disability it seems more likely that it just isn't real. (While there are some real disabilities that seem like they shouldn't be able to real, some that are imagined make sense to exist just don't/can't. I couldn't say for sure, I'm no expert, so this is just my thoughts.)
Either way, I doubt any person could realize such a condition about themselves because thin slicing is not part of conscious thought. Likewise, assuming that may be a person's problem is also "impossible" because they could just be not acting on those intuitive feelings regardless. On top of that, being overly nervous/fearful/etc. can lead a person to ignore their best intuitive readings and even alter how the brain processes them.
@@JarieSuicune The thing is, _I_ don't believe I can "thin slice" - _and_ I don't seem to have any connection to my "gut". I don't "ignore" intuitive readings; I literally can't access them no matter how much I try.
Type one and type two aren't usually useful considering that the categories are unfalsifiable, arbitrary, overly binary.
Why would any of those aspects make it "not useful?"
@@RickJaeger Arguably the point of science is to predict future phenomenon. Saying that something might be type a, b, or a combination of the two doesn't help us predict much.
3:55 THATS AWFUL, people are just shooting themselves in the foot in real life by this, its better to be as close to accurate as possible.
Which of the IRL people are you? I've only ever seen your cartoon face!
He's the one wearing his hat.
Sus
Sus
Sus
For marriage democracy
50% ad
This channel's ads are way too long.
Please stop dedicating 1/4th of the video to advertizing. I don't mind long ads when they're in long videos but this is ridiculous.
I love that games lie
OMG ABIGAIL THOOOOOORN💖💖💖
Nt
Amogus
I still think it's unethical for game devs to lie about probabilities, games should help people build accurate intuitions, not reinforce our existing flawed logic
3w ago