Peter is next level. Always good to remember that his clients require analysis that contains nuance and an exteneded timeline. As the value for massive decisions on how to proceed in sectors X & Y comes from the projected trajectory to the medium term. If you understand that, you wont get so frustrated with the unequivical tone of provocatve longterm assessments.
He never steelmanned the Jones Act, so I'll do it: it maintains a US based merchant marine, which can be mobilized for war when needed. It was passed in 1920 after we discovered we were reliant on foreighn shipping for WW1. Modern warfare relies on a massive supply chain to keep the jets and tanks and drones and troops fed.
I've got to believe we'll send some potash the aussies' way, and not just let them starve. Brits too if they need it. If the global food system collapses, the countries that had organic farming are going to be in a good place.
The demographic models he shows are not an effect of globalisation but they are an effect of industrialisation. Countries like Germany and Italy started earlier than the USA so they are further along than the USA is. But that doesnt mean the USA wont catch up to them and follow the same as every other country has. Dont forget America is the youngest country on the block so they have a lot of learning to do and catch up to make.
Baby boomers were not the largest generation ever because they had the millennials, which is larger, so he is wrong there, he gets away with saying that by adding the caviat that they are the largest by percentage of the population as it was then. Inflation after the boombers spending spree was brought down by globalisation, the Americans did benefit from it inspite of what he says about then not really taking part in it because they were self sufficient. His ideas about inflation coming down is based on the drop caused by the introduction of globalisation. Which wont be there to bring down inflation when the millennials start their spending spree. Which in theory will be larger than the boombers because there are more of them. Peter is very good at missing information within the data and not relating the data he is reading to other facts. Its hard to take a person seriously when they think that his country caused globalisation but didnt really benefit from it in such a way that its loss wont matter.
Leave it to an American to not pay attention and think the world revolves around them. In what way does America dictate what other armies and entire sections of society do?
@@ziggyc3004 Did you reply to the right comment? I’m saying the US doesn’t have a plan to stop supporting Ukraine that doesn’t involve getting nuked first.
Thanks for inviting Mr. Zeihan. He explains thing so very well. Happy Holidays!
Peter is next level. Always good to remember that his clients require analysis that contains nuance and an exteneded timeline. As the value for massive decisions on how to proceed in sectors X & Y comes from the projected trajectory to the medium term. If you understand that, you wont get so frustrated with the unequivical tone of provocatve longterm assessments.
One of the better Q&As. some fascinating questions.
Thank you for this and also for adding time stamps!!! Very professional.
Did catch where he was in Denver area. Sort of heard Morrison.
He never steelmanned the Jones Act, so I'll do it: it maintains a US based merchant marine, which can be mobilized for war when needed. It was passed in 1920 after we discovered we were reliant on foreighn shipping for WW1. Modern warfare relies on a massive supply chain to keep the jets and tanks and drones and troops fed.
I've heard him multiple times say it doesn't need to go. Just be amended. I'd imagine that's one of the details that would remain.
I've got to believe we'll send some potash the aussies' way, and not just let them starve. Brits too if they need it. If the global food system collapses, the countries that had organic farming are going to be in a good place.
Forgot NZ but they won't need potash 😋
The demographic models he shows are not an effect of globalisation but they are an effect of industrialisation.
Countries like Germany and Italy started earlier than the USA so they are further along than the USA is. But that doesnt mean the USA wont catch up to them and follow the same as every other country has.
Dont forget America is the youngest country on the block so they have a lot of learning to do and catch up to make.
Peter has been giving the same lecture in the last half decade.This one is entertaining. It's been getting less entertaining. Word to the wise.
Sobering.
Zeihan's man-bun looks strange on him. The idea of him being a guru is hilarious.
Baby boomers were not the largest generation ever because they had the millennials, which is larger, so he is wrong there, he gets away with saying that by adding the caviat that they are the largest by percentage of the population as it was then.
Inflation after the boombers spending spree was brought down by globalisation, the Americans did benefit from it inspite of what he says about then not really taking part in it because they were self sufficient.
His ideas about inflation coming down is based on the drop caused by the introduction of globalisation. Which wont be there to bring down inflation when the millennials start their spending spree. Which in theory will be larger than the boombers because there are more of them.
Peter is very good at missing information within the data and not relating the data he is reading to other facts.
Its hard to take a person seriously when they think that his country caused globalisation but didnt really benefit from it in such a way that its loss wont matter.
So he finally confirmed that we don’t have an exit plan for this war that doesn’t involve getting nuked first.
exit plan is russia agrees to freezing the front lines
Leave it to an American to not pay attention and think the world revolves around them. In what way does America dictate what other armies and entire sections of society do?
@@ziggyc3004 Did you reply to the right comment? I’m saying the US doesn’t have a plan to stop supporting Ukraine that doesn’t involve getting nuked first.
The labor shortage is a political problem. There are zombie jobs, the unneeded post office, the largely unneeded public education system, etc.
Go back to your cave! The public education system has enabled our economy to be the world’s best.