What a Russian assault on Ukraine would look like

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  • Опубликовано: 29 июн 2024
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    #Russia is at the highest combat readiness in its modern history. About 127,000 Russian troops have gathered near #Ukraine’s borders. #War remains uncertain, but if Russia is preparing for one, this is it.
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Комментарии • 14 тыс.

  • @CaspianReport
    @CaspianReport  2 года назад +502

    Go to curiositystream.thld.co/caspian_0122b and use code CASPIAN to save 25% off today, that’s only $14.99 a year. Thanks to Curiosity Stream for sponsoring today’s video

    • @StarKillerSK
      @StarKillerSK 2 года назад +14

      This new type of animation is killer man 🔶🔶
      Keep up 🤘🤘🤘

    • @danhandshoe
      @danhandshoe 2 года назад +3

      Please consider joining Nebula. I would love to see your videos on there.

    • @ThePresentation010
      @ThePresentation010 2 года назад +1

      Thank you. Been waiting for you to do a vid on this

    • @antdx316
      @antdx316 2 года назад +3

      Maybe if we all just ignore how broken the world is perhaps it would be normal? It doesn't matter if other countries and people are getting screwed over by the infinite US money pump, they should just be angry quietly , not fight back against the cheating, and earn all that money by being America's slaves.

    • @igbalmammadov9899
      @igbalmammadov9899 2 года назад +1

      Shirvan just threw an atomic bomb in comment section.

  • @harryloo8544
    @harryloo8544 2 года назад +10353

    "In war you can only be killed once, but in politics you can die many times over"
    Great quote.

    • @ChrisJohannsen
      @ChrisJohannsen 2 года назад +124

      Winston Churchill quote, not shirvan

    • @caven7056
      @caven7056 2 года назад +311

      @@ChrisJohannsen he's didn't say it's a quote from shirvan

    • @ChrisJohannsen
      @ChrisJohannsen 2 года назад +67

      @@caven7056 I didn't say he did.

    • @TheTariqibnziyad
      @TheTariqibnziyad 2 года назад +79

      Russia disagrees, they die multiple times in war

    • @davidmorris3981
      @davidmorris3981 2 года назад +177

      @@ChrisJohannsen I think Churchill must have been chanelling Shakespeare "The coward dies many times before his death, but the valient will taste of death but once."

  • @WaleedHiggins
    @WaleedHiggins 2 года назад +1589

    Very clever. I think you gave more thought to the invasion than the Russians did.

    • @Edax_Royeaux
      @Edax_Royeaux 2 года назад +45

      From what I've heard, Russian soldiers were told that driving into Ukraine was part of a military exercise and they were not anticipating being shot at.

    • @Vinzenzx
      @Vinzenzx 2 года назад +31

      @@Edax_Royeaux You can't be that naive right?

    • @Vinzenzx
      @Vinzenzx 2 года назад +5

      Dude... it's been more than 1 month how you don't know what was Russia goal? lol

    • @Edax_Royeaux
      @Edax_Royeaux 2 года назад +25

      @@Vinzenzx I told you what I heard, I didn't make any judgement or assertion. So please read more carefully and stop throwing around insults so baselessly.

    • @Vinzenzx
      @Vinzenzx 2 года назад +6

      @@Edax_Royeaux Being naive is not a insult my friend, sorry if you got ofended by it.
      If you don't know about what is happening don't go around with "I heard, that this and this and that".

  • @GregCeballos
    @GregCeballos Год назад +107

    Shirvan: the Russian forces will go around Chernobyl
    Russian forces: hold our beer, we're digging trenches in the irradiated soil

  • @ChRW123
    @ChRW123 2 года назад +430

    I had to laugh when you mentioned that they would need to avoid the area of Chernobyl. It would have been a reasonable approach if you cared about your peaople yet the Russians decided to dig trenches in the "red forest".

    • @kyle18934
      @kyle18934 2 года назад +35

      nothing like that fine dust to keep ya warm at night

    • @bobs_toys
      @bobs_toys 2 года назад +18

      @@kyle18934 It provides a good source of light as well.
      Any soldiers who are afraid of the dark had a comforting glow coming from their trench walls.

    • @kyle18934
      @kyle18934 2 года назад +3

      @@bobs_toys nothing like the soft warm glow to help soldires sleep at night

    • @bobs_toys
      @bobs_toys 2 года назад +7

      @@kyle18934 then in the future, Russians will know who the children of Heroes are.
      "Josef eleven fingers father's a true hero"

    • @kyle18934
      @kyle18934 2 года назад

      @@bobs_toys lol that's good 👍

  • @warlord4713
    @warlord4713 2 года назад +3663

    These map animations look amazing, I see Shirvan is stepping up his game

    • @lorenzzolorenzzo1619
      @lorenzzolorenzzo1619 2 года назад +19

      Just like the russians do :)

    • @slickrick2420
      @slickrick2420 2 года назад +42

      Funding from Turkish govt

    • @GaaraNous
      @GaaraNous 2 года назад +19

      @@slickrick2420 I suspected it too, whether Turkish or even Western media. Cuz animations and editing style's really distinct from his other videos

    • @philippshevliagin9945
      @philippshevliagin9945 2 года назад +6

      Russia is always has red colour on the map 😂

    • @knivesnico8775
      @knivesnico8775 2 года назад +5

      He's escalating

  • @yomommashaus
    @yomommashaus 2 года назад +793

    This was very well done. The main difference is that Russia appears to be going straight for Kyiv as a primary objective.

    • @mensrea1251
      @mensrea1251 2 года назад +75

      Phase 1, 2, 3 all at once it seems…

    • @21preend42
      @21preend42 2 года назад +49

      and casualties are way higher for Russians.

    • @A_annoying_rodent
      @A_annoying_rodent 2 года назад +30

      @@21preend42 they are just throwing their men against the ukrainians like it's 1942!

    • @Fyrdman
      @Fyrdman 2 года назад +48

      @J. M. I'm skeptical of those numbers. Even when you ask for Ukr losses, they remain at 130. Which is also unlikely

    • @abaddon6579
      @abaddon6579 2 года назад +47

      @J. M. It's coming from Ukrainian sources and should be taken with a grain of salt, it's war both sides will have propaganda to keep morale high.

  • @chaost4544
    @chaost4544 2 года назад +176

    Months later... yeah.... CaspianReport is more competent than Russian military commanders.

    • @WanderingYankee
      @WanderingYankee 2 года назад +33

      Hehe, yea: 10:18 "Russians would have to go around the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone".

  • @Miragexe
    @Miragexe 2 года назад +65

    ''They have to go around Chernobyl''
    Russia: Wait what?

    • @michaelbennett7561
      @michaelbennett7561 2 года назад +12

      Naw, let's dig trenches and fortifications in the highly radioactive soil instead, that sounds like a better idea.

    • @LiticoBunenditcher
      @LiticoBunenditcher 2 года назад

      @@michaelbennett7561 HAHAHAHAH XDD

    • @GLTLegislator
      @GLTLegislator 2 года назад

      best comment

  • @sammu
    @sammu 2 года назад +1904

    You were absolutely SPOT ON about Russia wanting a quick victory as we are witnessing now with their version of shock and awe. Also the three pronged approach involving an amphibeous landing as well as an arial angle. Well done as always!

    • @fjames208
      @fjames208 2 года назад +10

      Sucks

    • @centurymemes1208
      @centurymemes1208 2 года назад +84

      apologist gonna flood here and try to talk different topics to not make russia the big baddie

    • @centurymemes1208
      @centurymemes1208 2 года назад +78

      @@daddy_1453 keep deflecting topics commie

    • @person8064
      @person8064 2 года назад +48

      Don't flood this reply section with useless bickering, it's not like it's going to convince anyone over the *internet*.

    • @alphaxbox3728
      @alphaxbox3728 2 года назад +45

      @@daddy_1453 imagine defending Russia. Actually defending the guy who as little as back in 1930 did the same exact fucking think and forced every single native out of the country and slaughtered those who stayed.

  • @scoobiusmaximus9508
    @scoobiusmaximus9508 2 года назад +206

    It's pretty interesting to compare this video to what is actually happening right now. I would say it's like 95% accurate. The main difference is that Russia seems to want to do all 3 phases at the same time and isn't really making quick progress on any of them. They also definitely aren't showing the air power that was expected.

    • @latinamajor
      @latinamajor 2 года назад +35

      Russia can't show their air power, especially in the western half of Ukraine. the russian's can't fly at low altitude without being in range of stinger missiles. If the russian's fly at high altitude, then USA radar planes flying in poland and romania can track them and send targeting information for Ukraines hidden air defense batteries, telling them to turn their systems on at the perfect time. So flying low or high is both risky for russia right now.

    • @MWGScorp
      @MWGScorp 2 года назад +7

      @@aleksei8867 Russians opened fire on their own humanitarian corridors - looks like it's PR and an excuse for domestic support for their push to be paused.

    • @scoobiusmaximus9508
      @scoobiusmaximus9508 2 года назад +20

      @@aleksei8867 the negotiations and "humanitarian stuff" were all shams. Russia has attacked civilians leaving Mariupol every time they tried to leave in compliance with what was negotiated. Russia did not at all slow due to these reasons.
      I have seen the videos of Russians looting stores and even asking Ukrainians for supplies because of the logistics failures of the Russian military. The relative lack of Russian progress in the invasion is almost entirely because they lack capability.

    • @Apipoulai
      @Apipoulai 2 года назад

      They obviously didnt expect to be confronted by so much ant-air weaponry :P ruclips.net/video/_WGcfkqzUI4/видео.html

    • @thereita1052
      @thereita1052 2 года назад +10

      @@aleksei8867 doesn't seem they made much progress a week from your reply. The only major city they captured Is cherson and now they are doing even MORE negotiations and humanitarian stuff.

  • @smoothmiles24
    @smoothmiles24 2 года назад +1341

    This phase one analysis is shockingly accurate to what is happening right as we speak... Literally Russia is attacking from Belarus, Transnistria, via the sea, Crimea, and from the east in occupied Ukraine... This is no joke.

    • @ashiqurrahman4584
      @ashiqurrahman4584 2 года назад +68

      Looks like it's finishing all 3 phases at once. Original version of shock and awe though we are yet to see the extent of Ukrainian response..

    • @ColonelBragg
      @ColonelBragg 2 года назад +27

      @@ashiqurrahman4584 I think Ukraine losing is a forgone conclusion at this point

    • @ruffydoge5783
      @ruffydoge5783 2 года назад +24

      only difference I'd say is the fact that he isn't waiting for negotiation, Putin is just attacking everywhere at once

    • @jakuanlhc123
      @jakuanlhc123 2 года назад +30

      Not from Transnistria

    • @aaronhpa
      @aaronhpa 2 года назад +4

      thay are not attacking from Belarus, at least officially

  • @alicelund147
    @alicelund147 2 года назад +97

    Their plans turned out to be as you predicted with the difference that they didn't do it in phases but all three phases at once. The Odessa move has failed and the other offensives have stalled.

    • @Vinzenzx
      @Vinzenzx 2 года назад +1

      What?

    • @Klemm1988
      @Klemm1988 2 года назад +12

      @@Vinzenzx What?

    • @Vinzenzx
      @Vinzenzx 2 года назад

      @@Klemm1988 ?

    • @alicelund147
      @alicelund147 2 года назад

      @Hannibal Sulla You want to murder the people is Odessa as well? Why? That is sick.

    • @rudolfabelin383
      @rudolfabelin383 2 года назад +4

      Very well said. Maybe Putin read to many books on the Blitzkrieg?

  • @fast1nakus
    @fast1nakus 2 года назад +907

    As a Ukrainian, I do appreciate the coverage of this whole shitstorm, but I kinda have a feeling that it's slowly turns in some kind of miseryporn

    • @Ikbeneengeit
      @Ikbeneengeit 2 года назад +206

      I feel bad for the Ukrainian crisis and I want you to be able to have a good life and some self determination. I don't want dictators to push around democracies. That's why I'm interested. I hope war doesn't happen.

    • @lfx2mlfx2m8
      @lfx2mlfx2m8 2 года назад +45

      does the media milk this like the ronacoaster?

    • @ethanc1121
      @ethanc1121 2 года назад +93

      Well as a more cynical answer, this isn’t really about the Ukrainian people at all. Make no mistake, if this crosses the point of no return, Ukraine will become a battlespace first and humanitarian project a distant, distant third. You could probably replant an entire forest with the pages used to speculate on a US vs Russia conflict- and that’s just in English. The people that are hawkish on this war are chomping at the bit to see those theories and wargames put to the test.

    • @fast1nakus
      @fast1nakus 2 года назад +68

      @@ethanc1121 Oh, I assure you, anyone who knows the history of this piece of land between east and west knows whats going to happen - the same shit that happens every century for the last 600 years. they come, they conquer, they piss off untill the next time.
      nobody will fight them.
      nobody in ukraine will even care much,
      just because not the first time.

    • @davesprivatelounge
      @davesprivatelounge 2 года назад +98

      For the West, war is just something they see on television. Which is why they are always so eager to push for military conflict. It is the poorer classes who will fight the war when it comes down to it anyway.

  • @Brahmdagh
    @Brahmdagh 2 года назад +155

    "They'd have to go around the Chernobyl radiation zone"
    Holy schitt, they are going to come exactly through there.
    It's the new Ardennes, I'm telling ya.

    • @Gokaes
      @Gokaes 2 года назад +18

      my first thoughts as well "they think we go around.. no we go through and FAST"

    • @gleqy
      @gleqy 2 года назад +2

      just writing this comment so that i can tell anyone "see, i knew"

    • @Gokaes
      @Gokaes 2 года назад

      @@gleqy exactly "we knew"

    • @StuffandThings_
      @StuffandThings_ 2 года назад +17

      Especially since Russia has little concern for the safety of its citizens with regards to radiation danger. Hell, they may well do both (around and through) to really catch folks by surprise. The thing is though, since the whole area is so flat, there isn't exactly much geographically advantageous/disadvantageous regions to play around with, just rivers and the exclusion zone. So I really doubt that it will provide a huge advantage.
      Now also, what about Transnistria? Why would Russia support such an irrelevant entity for so long? I wouldn't be surprised if they made very good use of that region too.

    • @tritium1998
      @tritium1998 2 года назад +4

      They are going to make pop culture depictions of this scenario (more than they already have about Chernobyl), even if it never happens.

  • @myronalcock4716
    @myronalcock4716 2 года назад +596

    Watched this last nite, now in disbelief as it's unfolding almost exactly as you scripted. Thanks for your work, it is helping process this insanity.

    • @ninaramezani4667
      @ninaramezani4667 2 года назад +3

      Exactly my thought!

    • @davidbesir
      @davidbesir 2 года назад +2

      Same here. Just watched it hours before it started. I cannot believe it and i wish to watch a video about how it will be going. But I'm sure, based on information, nobody can tell how it will be going. too scary.

    • @4partmedia
      @4partmedia 2 года назад +6

      How? This man was calling for weeks upon weeks of Russian movement..... instead they literally pushed in in one day. 🧐

    • @israelbenitezjimenez533
      @israelbenitezjimenez533 2 года назад +6

      almost exactly? it was logical, and Russia did it in a day. Wish peace comes back, NATO should guarantee not expanding on Ukraine for good.

    • @guitarhero0000
      @guitarhero0000 2 года назад +3

      There weren't thousands that died within the first hour. Also, the attacked in the north almost right away.

  • @dhpropertymanagementownerv9167
    @dhpropertymanagementownerv9167 2 года назад +243

    I like the comment about going around the Chernobyl zone but in reality they weren't as smart as you and decided to go into it and dig defensive positions in to the radioactive soil

    • @mubbles1066
      @mubbles1066 2 года назад

      100’s of Russians now dying of radiation poisoning in Belarus hospitals because of it as we speak…What a shame

    • @obcane3072
      @obcane3072 2 года назад +35

      Reports are coming out that Russians were using 1985 maps...the year before the accident.
      Makes you wonder if the soldiers never heard of the accident.

    • @omargj1
      @omargj1 2 года назад +7

      Even there are reporst that Russian soldiers were collecting "irradiated souveniers" from Chernobyl.

    • @hewhohasnoidentity4377
      @hewhohasnoidentity4377 2 года назад

      @@obcane3072 the managers at Chernobyl said that they told the Russian soldiers they shouldn't disrupt the soil because it is dangerous and the soldier picked up a handful and asked how it is dangerous.
      I wouldn't expect low level troops to be very well educated. Even US Army enlisted troops only require a GED. Very few have college degrees. I wouldn't expect many enlisted personnel to know about Chernobyl.

    • @obcane3072
      @obcane3072 2 года назад +2

      @@hewhohasnoidentity4377 I wasn't implying level of intelligence or education. Just age. They are all young 18-25. They weren't even born. So I wouldn't expect them to be aware or make the connection.
      I would expect their superiors to be aware and try to keep them from harm.

  • @AndreyBelenkiy
    @AndreyBelenkiy 2 года назад +2034

    Thanks for this video. I don't know what to think. As a resident of Kyiv, it's a complicated feat to go about daily life while simultaneously planning for the worst. I haven't thought of anything better than getting in my car with my family and driving west if war happens. I think many in the city haven't even planned that far. On the streets, it's as if a parallel reality exists where the threat isn't real. It's not talked about, it isn't felt. It's actively downplayed by the government and ignored by the people. Yes, there are individuals actively planning to resist, some families have probably talked through their potential actions on invasion day. The overwhelming majority however has opted for ignorance due to helplessness. Common wisdom is that "there's nothing we can do". And that thinking leads to a population that, despite the grueling conflict in the Donbass, is not ready for a war. Of course, war might not come, I hope for that and I'm not completely ready either. But the predominant indifference of people around me is even more troubling.

    • @rb98769
      @rb98769 2 года назад +577

      @@cap.deanmarcelwinchester No one cares about Canada's help, Canada is absolutely irrelevant when it comes to international politics. Seek help.

    • @slobodankopanja2506
      @slobodankopanja2506 2 года назад +68

      Russia will not attack unless Ukraine attacks the Donbass...

    • @magiclion
      @magiclion 2 года назад +200

      @@cap.deanmarcelwinchester You support Victor Yanyoukovich the guy who won a fraudulent election and stolen the country's finances ?
      The majority Ukrainian population are under some American dictatorship ?

    • @magiclion
      @magiclion 2 года назад +302

      @@slobodankopanja2506 Russia has already attacked first multiple times.

    • @dukejivetalker7541
      @dukejivetalker7541 2 года назад +116

      be safe man praying for you.

  • @ALatvian
    @ALatvian 2 года назад +1890

    It's terrifying being in a country where war is a real threat. I wish you luck and peace from Latvia.

    • @unskilled822
      @unskilled822 2 года назад +71

      in my country we were almost at civil war and it was frightening i cannot imagine the feeling of knowing you're gonna be invaded, its surreal like "Am i dreaming all this madness or its truly happening" sort of thing.

    • @korneplodus4605
      @korneplodus4605 2 года назад +26

      Господи да кому вы нужны

    • @krulasfalt
      @krulasfalt 2 года назад +61

      bruh latvia is next

    • @MultiCraftTube
      @MultiCraftTube 2 года назад +20

      @@krulasfalt Latvia is in the EU

    • @MrSniperdude01
      @MrSniperdude01 2 года назад +18

      I'm sorry... Was Latvia not a SSR satellite state ? I ask because if you listen to NATO/Biden, every nation that once belonged to Russia is endangered as Putin's ultimate goal is Rebuild the Soviet Empire !

  • @TFreckle
    @TFreckle 2 года назад +121

    I just rewatched this, and I am shocked and appalled at both your precision, and the ways in which Russia failed spectacularly in speedily conquering southern Ukraine, Kyiv and Kharkiv.

    • @MacTac141
      @MacTac141 2 года назад +21

      @@aleksei8867 We are coming up on 2 weeks in and so far Russia has only managed to capture less defended rural areas and the city of Kherson which is on the smaller side and right by the Crimea peninsula. They’ve lost in the upper thousands of troops meaning they’ve already lost more than the US did in 20 years of Afghanistan AND Iraq combined and they STILL DONT HAVE AIR SUPERIORITY!!!
      That last one is the hardest to believe all Russia does is brag about its anti air capabilities and yet more and more videos emerge of Ukrainian drones destroying convoys and air defences. Couple that with the fact Ukraine still has some of its airforce it’s unbelievable!
      As a self proclaimed “Super power” Russia’s performance so far has been pathetic! It took the US 6 days after entering Baghdad to secure it and they only lost 34 troops. Compare that to Russia who have been attacking Kyiv with ground forces since day 1, they’ve already lost hundreds of not thousands doing it and it’s no where near falling! It’s honestly pathetic and hilarious🤣

    • @Misaka_Complex
      @Misaka_Complex 2 года назад +9

      @@aleksei8867 OK Putard shill, sip hard on that copium as Putard loses thousands of soldiers, 2x major generals, dozens of planes including SU34s as the NATO "foreign legions" steps up to defend Ukraine. Keep reading Rusky copium maps which over-exaggerates Putard's gains.

    • @dfgpl
      @dfgpl 2 года назад +5

      @@aleksei8867 I will accept dry facts, please prove him wrong for me.

    • @dfgpl
      @dfgpl 2 года назад +5

      @@aleksei8867 Fair Enough. I think most of your points are a bunch of lies straight from the Kremlin, but I can of course be wrong.
      So how about we come back here in let's say 3 months?
      If the situation is substantially different in favor of Russia (Let's say entire territory east of Dnieper River is under Russian control). I will admit that you were right and that I was gullible idiot for believing bullshit in western media.
      However if it's not the case (Russian controlled territory similar to today or smaller) you will admit the same and accept the fact that Russian Media are full of shit.
      Deal?

    • @sot11cat
      @sot11cat 2 года назад +4

      @@aleksei8867 Your analysis might have seemed quite sane back then. Can you please reassess development(s) since then?

  • @nathanielroberts7077
    @nathanielroberts7077 2 года назад +41

    “Ukraine is no pushover.”
    Agreed. Four weeks in as of today and this has been an absolute disaster for Russia.

    • @dmy_tro
      @dmy_tro 2 года назад +2

      And a couple of days ago the US agreed to lend lease for Ukraine which will definitely be the end for Russia.

    • @gamer228r
      @gamer228r 2 года назад +4

      80 days and yeah , even more costly for russia

    • @MrHav1k
      @MrHav1k Год назад +2

      Wait till you see the s**t Russia is in at the 10 month mark 🤣🤣

    • @Cynthia_Blackraven_666
      @Cynthia_Blackraven_666 Год назад +1

      11 months in and russia has lost more than 100K troops, 1800 tanks, their aviation can't go pass the line of contact (when they dare to use it) and Ukraine is aquiring Western MBT's and IFV's.
      It is worse than a disaster for russia and it's not even the end.

  • @sanlouci
    @sanlouci 2 года назад +575

    When we needed him the most. Master Caspian returns

    • @wp12mv
      @wp12mv 2 года назад +21

      A Caspian Report is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to.

    • @d3r4g45
      @d3r4g45 2 года назад +2

      Russian moutpeace propaganda video.

    • @noobienoobie6358
      @noobienoobie6358 2 года назад +7

      @@d3r4g45 wait how does he support Russia here? Seems unbiased enough for me, he even disclaimed that what he showed was just plans and they will most likely not hold in the event of actual war.

    • @aabens
      @aabens 2 года назад

      @@noobienoobie6358 it's pretty clear from this and many other videos of his that he's biased towards Russia.

    • @samuellandos785
      @samuellandos785 2 года назад

      @@aabens what a champ

  • @sogerc1
    @sogerc1 2 года назад +29

    Maybe Putin should've watched this video before attacking Ukraine.

  • @AlexandreOliveira1974
    @AlexandreOliveira1974 2 года назад +82

    Nice watching, 2 months after the invasion. The prognostics were accurate, but:
    1) Russian military forces were astonishingly incompetent/ unprepared;
    2) Ukrainian forces were over-the-edge defending the country in the first days/weeks, and also quite lucky;
    3) West's "help" was really fast and effective in providing weapons/ training/ equipment as an indirect "third-party", impossible as it seems.
    A bit of each make the picture we have now. The only thing didn't mentioned is the sad and coward butcheryness of Russia towards civilians in Ukraine (let alone supposed war crimes, the simple shelling of residential areas is absolute insanity). With the laughable-if-not-despicable justification that Ukraine is a 'neo-nazi', 'genocidal' (what??) nation that must be leveled at any cost... Poor Russian good-willing people, they'll pay high for megalomany and vanity of their powerful ones.

    • @spajkilza1992
      @spajkilza1992 2 года назад +1

      Ukraine right now is probably the biggest stockpile of weapons in a region, except their russian neighbour.

    • @malluk3065
      @malluk3065 2 года назад

      @otto Lincoln Keep coping. Russia is incompetent.

    • @Jaqen_Hghar
      @Jaqen_Hghar Год назад

      Have you been living the under the rock when UA has continuously bombed Donbas for last 8 years? Even many w*stern medias covered those.

  • @MehdiNakouriTn
    @MehdiNakouriTn 2 года назад +1553

    I'm thinking about the civilians here. We're talking about highly populated regions and cities, like Odessa. The recent conflict in Karabakh between Armenia & Azerbaijan caused a lot of casualties and suffering on both sides. I hope this gets resolved peacefully, or at least surgically avoiding any large scale confrontations.

    • @benjamindavidovichwaals2899
      @benjamindavidovichwaals2899 2 года назад +13

      😂😂😂

    • @stefanhensel8611
      @stefanhensel8611 2 года назад +134

      Russia is not exactly renowned for "surgical" strikes. See Aleppo or Chechnya for examples.

    • @GermanConquistador08
      @GermanConquistador08 2 года назад +49

      @@stefanhensel8611 - Proof of their degeneration as a National State. Their failing is a threat to the World.

    • @vlad22rus
      @vlad22rus 2 года назад +96

      As a person who lived in Odessa, I can say that it is reasonable for Russia to occupy only the south-eastern territories. In fact, there is a lot of local support for Russia, so in case of war, the occupation of such cities may not cause many problems.

    • @korovabozha4963
      @korovabozha4963 2 года назад +10

      @Vapa I think you forget Russia has an entire fleet in the Black Sea and can bombard it both from the coast and aerially… It is a worry.

  • @matthewshields
    @matthewshields 2 года назад +684

    In Western Europe, NATO was falling out of fashion as economic ties with Russia have strengthened and Western European states focused on a less US-centric military policy. Ironically if Russia were to invade Ukraine it could reinvigorate support for NATO bringing Western Europe back to the perspective of the United States and Eastern Europe where Russia is seen as a major threat.
    Edit: There are way more replies than I expected. I'm not saying one side is right or wrong (that's for you to decide), I was just giving some context of NATOs reaction to the current conflict.

    • @sc1338
      @sc1338 2 года назад +83

      Europeans have gotten lax. they also show little gratitude, except for Poland, the Baltic states, and of course our always ally UK.

    • @leonardos2925
      @leonardos2925 2 года назад +62

      Europe being Europe, in that situation they would remember why the USA was so important for their defense in the Cold War, a invasion of Western Europe would lead to war at that time. The current anti-American stance is typical of EU, they try to be the USA (Some want the "United States of Europe") while they're hostile to the USA. It's that genocidal mindset, they want to be you and want you down. They had to unite dozens of countries to imitate the huge market the Americans have.

    • @firstlast8190
      @firstlast8190 2 года назад +24

      US: hey Western Europe, we have gas and weapons over here if ya need it$$$

    • @tgjman98
      @tgjman98 2 года назад +21

      it's already got conversation started in Sweden and Finland about joining NATO

    • @brianpeck4035
      @brianpeck4035 2 года назад +12

      Reinvigoration of NATO is already happening. Similar is happening against China.

  • @starfishprime7721
    @starfishprime7721 2 года назад +152

    Going around Chernobyl he says. Man watching this as it’s happening feels like you went back and edited this video, that’s how spot on you are so far

    • @madgavin7568
      @madgavin7568 2 года назад +23

      Indeed the Russian's actually went right through Chernobyl and have beelined straight for the capital Kiev.

    • @juliusnepos6013
      @juliusnepos6013 2 года назад +1

      Yeah

    • @juliusnepos6013
      @juliusnepos6013 2 года назад +6

      Even captuirng the facility itself

    • @omargj1
      @omargj1 2 года назад +6

      @@juliusnepos6013 They even set campaments in the irradiated exclusion zone around Chernobyl. dug trenches, and collected irradiated souvenirs, that level of stupidity is unbeliavable.

  • @kcharles8857
    @kcharles8857 2 года назад +68

    Commenting 9 weeks into the invasion, and you got the early stages almost spot on. I don't think anyone could have predicted Ukrainian resilience. You know your stuff man :)

  • @roy6907
    @roy6907 2 года назад +306

    I’d imagine in the North, the Russians would push through even the containment zone if it meant outmaneuvering defenses

    • @l.palacio9076
      @l.palacio9076 2 года назад +129

      Its not like the troops would die just by passing by it, radiations levels aren't that high anymore, so I agree

    • @cm275
      @cm275 2 года назад +99

      Soviet AFVs, which the Russians still use, were designed to operate and fight for days in a battlefield contaminated by chemical or nuclear weapons.

    • @bradsillasen1972
      @bradsillasen1972 2 года назад +15

      Good point. I seriously doubt if the Kremlin or even the generals give a damn. Probably true for Ukraine as well so.
      Edit: Add, the U.S. military doesn't even care so much. ...agent orange for starters, and other toxic situations in middle east. I have to assume there are many others I have never been aware of.

    • @tetraxis3011
      @tetraxis3011 2 года назад +46

      The new Ardennes.

    • @alicorn3924
      @alicorn3924 2 года назад +4

      @@l.palacio9076 Although, they can't set up a long-term base there still.

  • @295Phoenix
    @295Phoenix 2 года назад +221

    Holy crap, this guy very accurately predicted what the Russian plan would be like...except that it looks like the Russians combined Phases I and II.

    • @SergeyPRKL
      @SergeyPRKL 2 года назад +8

      And they are taking all of Ukraine, not leavinag anything.

    • @gustavju4686
      @gustavju4686 2 года назад +5

      @@tatfly5779 Think he means taking the whole territory (opposed to just seizing the east).

    • @animeB0y01
      @animeB0y01 2 года назад +34

      @@tatfly5779 Liar - i have seen apartment blocks bombed and civilians hurt or killed. Russia will pay for this aggression one way or another . Count on that

    • @justADeni
      @justADeni 2 года назад +12

      @@tatfly5779 Hahaha sure lmao. Bombing civillians is what RuSSia is doing

    • @naughtyfins6810
      @naughtyfins6810 2 года назад +1

      and III

  • @ccauf815
    @ccauf815 2 года назад +49

    Wow, after a week of war and watching this I’m blown away by the accuracy. You even called Russia advancing to Transnistia, which we see from the leaked picture in Belarus of the invasion plan. Really show the quality of the work here.

    • @dixonhill1108
      @dixonhill1108 2 года назад +2

      Most of this is dictated by the terrain/economy/population centers etc. Kiev is a symbolic/political target while Odessa is the one that actually matters.

  • @micanikko
    @micanikko 2 года назад +20

    Oh boy. This video.. idk if it aged like wine or if it aged like milk.
    Its happening now.

  • @faganyusifli9039
    @faganyusifli9039 2 года назад +1176

    This is so far the best explained scenario about the conflict. Great job Shirvan!

    • @opex9979
      @opex9979 2 года назад +19

      Yeah, Washington doubling down on its propaganda

    • @opex9979
      @opex9979 2 года назад +18

      @@Ikabcda still better then Washington teaching literal nazis in Ukraine how to fight

    • @opex9979
      @opex9979 2 года назад +13

      @@Ikabcda yeah i agree. Too bad Washington sponsored coup in Ukraine and now Ukrmarcht SS Reich backstabbing, killing and invading its own civilians that decided to leave this Ukrwaffen SS colony and don't dance under murican flute

    • @onlyplaysveigar7241
      @onlyplaysveigar7241 2 года назад +4

      @Volk Aye iTs ThE CIA bRo,!!??

    • @opex9979
      @opex9979 2 года назад +3

      @@onlyplaysveigar7241 I don't know. But im sure its one of the clown agents from Washington

  • @horvathsogranfume658
    @horvathsogranfume658 Год назад +21

    i watched this video to remember russia used to have tanks

    • @dinsel9691
      @dinsel9691 Год назад +2

      Muahaha😂

    • @rykwon4535
      @rykwon4535 Год назад +1

      ..they still do

    • @horvathsogranfume658
      @horvathsogranfume658 Год назад +3

      @@rykwon4535 i mean tanks that work

    • @G.A.C_Preserve
      @G.A.C_Preserve Год назад +1

      ​@@rykwon4535 that's like seeing the German bringing back the Tiger 2 to invade Poland and failed

  • @Quixote1818
    @Quixote1818 2 года назад +95

    Reports that Russian troops are landing in Odessa. Looks like you nailed this one so far. Tragic.

    • @dogeyes7261
      @dogeyes7261 2 года назад +4

      As long as the primary casualties are Ukrainian Nazis and their allies then this will be a net benefit for Ukraine.

    • @Babe-jq2sy
      @Babe-jq2sy 2 года назад +24

      @@dogeyes7261 aha are you joking putin isn’t far off a nazi himself also who the fuck does this guy think he is should mind he’s own business

    • @Babe-jq2sy
      @Babe-jq2sy 2 года назад +1

      @@dogeyes7261 it’s no benefit for Ukraine because if the Ukraine’s wanted the bad people gone they would of done it. Also nazis to Russia is when Ukraine banned the russian Language from its parliament after the 2014 invasion

    • @centurymemes1208
      @centurymemes1208 2 года назад +10

      @@dogeyes7261 ok putin apologist

    • @alphaxbox3728
      @alphaxbox3728 2 года назад +7

      @@dogeyes7261 those bases and civilians nazis now? Imagine actually defending an FULL SCALE INVASION with "wahh there were a few neonazis". Actual child.

  • @TheFuelInjected
    @TheFuelInjected 2 года назад +205

    Came here to check how accurate you were. Pretty accurate except Russia executed all 3 phases at once, and went right through the Chernobyl exclusion zone . I believe they did this for 2 reasons, to secure chernobyl as a strategic MAD tool and to guage their military capabilities to execute their 7 days to the River Rhine plan, which is a terrifying thought.

    • @babla69420
      @babla69420 2 года назад +18

      7 days to rhine plan is nothing but the quickest way to decrease global warming

    • @zackr8938
      @zackr8938 2 года назад +1

      What's a MAD tool?

    • @pvtghost117
      @pvtghost117 2 года назад +11

      @@zackr8938 mutually assured destruction, if Ukraine attacks the Russian forces near the Chernobyl plant they risk damaging the plant and releasing radiation on the rest of the country.

    • @TheFuelInjected
      @TheFuelInjected 2 года назад +8

      @@babla69420 That comment terrifies me more than Putin.

    • @yannick4895
      @yannick4895 2 года назад +3

      @@zackr8938 Mutual Assured Destruction , basically dragging the others with you to hell

  • @vivekkaushik9508
    @vivekkaushik9508 2 года назад +676

    This has got to be THE BEST Caspian Report I have ever seen. The amount of research went into this beyond my guesses. Kudos Srivan.

    • @ArchonLicht
      @ArchonLicht 2 года назад +12

      It's the worst, and amount of research seems to be around 0. Can't even spell the names right, PoltAva => PoltOva... So much research.

    • @kometblitz
      @kometblitz 2 года назад +13

      @@ArchonLicht Poltava is spelled correctly

    • @ArchonLicht
      @ArchonLicht 2 года назад +4

      @@kometblitz Sorry, I meant to say pronounced.
      But this the least of the problems.

    • @SkywalkerWroc
      @SkywalkerWroc 2 года назад +10

      Hardly so. For anyone familiar with the topic, it's on the level of Daily Mail, including the parroting of the Russian propaganda and various minor nonsensical mistakes.

    • @noobienoobie6358
      @noobienoobie6358 2 года назад +13

      @@SkywalkerWroc Ok then, what did he mess up? Tell us what he said wrong instead of just crying about it. He never claimed that Russia would invade, just what the plans could be IF they did, he even disclaimed that it is just plans and might very well end up differently in the case of war and actual resistance.
      "including the parroting of the Russian propaganda and various minor nonsensical mistakes." What exactly are you trying to say here?

  • @jdaniel3068
    @jdaniel3068 2 года назад +593

    I metup in Istanbul with my Turk buddy and we spent a week crossing Ukraine from Lviv to Kharkov in 2019. A beautiful place with strong and proud people.
    This all just makes me sad.

    • @pomegranatepom1428
      @pomegranatepom1428 2 года назад +20

      Did you target any Armenians or Kurds while you were at it?

    • @GoBIGclan
      @GoBIGclan 2 года назад +14

      Nice, I visited Kiev and Chernobyl before flying into Istanbul to meet with my friend there. I stayed 6 months in Bursa

    • @jdaniel3068
      @jdaniel3068 2 года назад +72

      @@pomegranatepom1428 Yes actually we spent 2 days in Yerevan and had dinner with several Kurds in Turkey.
      You dont get outside much, eh?

    • @zeblanmaidaynovich796
      @zeblanmaidaynovich796 2 года назад +9

      If some brainless trolls all over YT still dont get it i will explain easy and fast... 7 years ago Russia already win against west and they payroll neonazi puppets ukraine😂😃😆when PRO-Donbas+Crimea come back home to Russian soil😂😃😆But the most funny thing is when the Taliban give weak usa+nato 13 days to run from Afghanistan away LOL

    • @themainten4433
      @themainten4433 2 года назад +3

      Sad why? There’s nothing going to happen this is all bs posturing

  • @alfotiosacaramde9631
    @alfotiosacaramde9631 2 года назад +92

    After all this time, as Ukrainian, I seeing this video. And I just can't stop laughing! 🤣

    • @tonyevans2967
      @tonyevans2967 2 года назад +21

      Slava Ukraini

    • @gamer228r
      @gamer228r 2 года назад +9

      Друга армія світа вони казали АХХАХАХА , привіт я теж українець

    • @arau8310
      @arau8310 2 года назад +8

      You, your brothers and sisters, parents, grandparents and relatives are heroes. You are teaching the world about love of country, and defense of your way of life. We are praying and pulling for you! Slava Ukraini.

    • @gamer228r
      @gamer228r 2 года назад +4

      @@arau8310 Thank you (im a Ukrainian too)

    • @eliasziad7864
      @eliasziad7864 2 года назад

      Slava Rossii

  • @jimmieavants5085
    @jimmieavants5085 2 года назад +14

    Dude, since I found this site, I feel more enlightened than ever about the "back story" that is impossible to find anywhere else!
    I can't thank you enough for the work, research, and potential consequences of that work.
    I've been looking at your vids as far back as a year and it's amazing how prophetic you have been.
    Thankya kindly,
    Jim Avants
    TEXAS

    • @JFLehr
      @JFLehr 7 месяцев назад

      me too!

  • @adamkiraly7866
    @adamkiraly7866 2 года назад +39

    Russia wants a quick decisive victory" oh boi where have I heard this one before?

  • @SaladBowlz
    @SaladBowlz 2 года назад +235

    I feel that you will be a great asset to those of us who are trying to understand this conflict from a far. Thank you for your work, and thank you in advance for the work I'm sure you're doing right now to help bring understanding of this conflict to those of us who do not live in the sphere of influence of the former USSR.

  • @Yuki-tw8tj
    @Yuki-tw8tj 2 года назад +49

    Just want to say I'm so glad Shirvan narrates his videos again. Shirvan, you're the best!

  • @postyoda1623
    @postyoda1623 2 года назад +101

    Russia took Chernobyl, moving equipment through Crimea and started the move from east (Lugansk and Donetsk). True analysis word for word.

    • @PissMenn
      @PissMenn 2 года назад +5

      Putin perhaps already watched this video

  • @Jai_BharatMata
    @Jai_BharatMata 2 года назад +94

    🔴 14:04 *In A WAR... you can be killed only once....*
    *but in politics you can die many times*
    That line was Brutal Honesty💙
    P.S: Love from India🇮🇳💙

  • @breadorchopstix5920
    @breadorchopstix5920 2 года назад +717

    The quality of these videos are getting much better. The map animation and quality makes the video much more engaging, keep it up!

    • @opinion4755
      @opinion4755 2 года назад +2

      Moscow is investing in its communication assets!

    • @berkt_9622
      @berkt_9622 2 года назад

      any idea how they make those visuals?

    • @breadorchopstix5920
      @breadorchopstix5920 2 года назад

      @@berkt_9622 I’m assuming they hired someone…

    • @frankmueller6522
      @frankmueller6522 2 года назад +8

      Go forward, America and Ukraine! Long live the Nato and its allies! Long live freedom! Down with all dictatorships and terrorists all around the world! Best wishes from Germany!

    • @davelafontaine9832
      @davelafontaine9832 2 года назад +2

      Indeed the map animation brings so much depth to the discussion. The use of the globe instead of flat maps and the various points of perspective rather then North up orientation is especially valuable!

  • @Darwinsown
    @Darwinsown 2 года назад +57

    You must be a time traveler. This video is so accurate. Well done.

  • @abhyudaysarkar5012
    @abhyudaysarkar5012 2 года назад +18

    This has aged well.

    • @0xszander0
      @0xszander0 2 года назад

      Unfortunately it did..

    • @abhyudaysarkar5012
      @abhyudaysarkar5012 2 года назад +2

      @@0xszander0 yeah. I was hoping it would not come to it. Putin has lost his mind.

  • @drychaf
    @drychaf 2 года назад +77

    1 - Russia flexes muscles to frighten off potential enemies from getting too close.
    2 - Russia's neighbours are indeed frightened by this and have to increase defences, including turning to and strengthening Nato.
    3 - Russia achieves the result that her neighbours are much more suspiscious of her, much further distanced from her, much more attracted to the west, and much more heavily armed than before.
    How on earth can this possibly work out well for Russia?

    • @olegbobrovskiy3244
      @olegbobrovskiy3244 2 года назад +19

      Putin is a fool lol, he’s just adept at creating this image of a strongman, cold and calculated leader

    • @Abyss_Cat
      @Abyss_Cat 2 года назад +21

      Putin doesn't care about Russia

    • @Alex-bl6oi
      @Alex-bl6oi 2 года назад +2

      This is exactly what I've been trying to figure out from the beginning. The logic just doesn't add up. It seems like this might have been just one big bluff that blew up in Putin's face. Maybe the bluff was some weird reverse psychological trick to keep the Nord2 pipe moving forward?

    • @flosstycoon9375
      @flosstycoon9375 2 года назад +18

      While not good for Russia per se, it IS good for Putin and his cronies. It finally materializes this mythical, looming, threat of NATO that simply put did not exist prior.
      It succeeds in strengthening Putin's hand for controlling the domestic population, by giving them an external enemy to project their frustrations at a failing Russian economy instead of directing those frustrations at Putin and his cronies.
      The irony being, it also succeeds in reminding all NATO members why NATO exists in the first place. Which will undoubtedly end up with increased military budgets and deployments. It's not even hard to imagine Finland and Sweden considering NATO membership, in light of the whole Ukraine fiasco.

    • @darth3911
      @darth3911 2 года назад +1

      @@Alex-bl6oi I myself think it was to get one of Russias allies officially recognized by the Ukraine as a independent state.

  • @peaceturtleinfinity
    @peaceturtleinfinity 2 года назад +784

    As an American I’m really interesting in understanding Russia’s POV. This breaks it down in a way that makes a lot of sense…and makes you realize how complicated our world is.

    • @ninjaturtledude999
      @ninjaturtledude999 2 года назад +128

      From UK, I feel a bit bad for Russia's position, it would be hard not to feel encroached on with so many arms going to Ukraine and and an EU so trigger happy with sanctions for Russia. All I know is our gas bill is now very expensive

    • @Yolbosun
      @Yolbosun 2 года назад +35

      Bankers win?
      China takes all
      After milley called China
      And the potatoe left 80 billion in military equipment for taliban
      Americans borders open
      Democrats encourage antifa/ blm democrats brown shirts to terrorize Americans …

    • @grrrr2807
      @grrrr2807 2 года назад +123

      I’m United States former Army look how we treated Russia after the Cold War we could of had dialogue instead we expanded NATO and missile defense and continued to poke the bear I don’t blame Russia for this reaction and in their minds historically Kiev is the capital of the Kievan Rus old Russia

    • @lq_12
      @lq_12 2 года назад +140

      It's not so complicated, they feel threatened by NATO neither USA nor NATO are willing to address Russia's security concerns.
      NATO was born in cold war era and even USSR requested membership but it was denied therefore they created Warsaw pact.
      USSR ceded from existing but NATO didn't and it participated in Yugoslavia bombing and in Iraq (no weapons of massive destruction were ever found).
      That's the reason Russia sees it as a threat it not longer is a defensive organization but a offensive.
      Russia was so anxious about the Iranian Deal because NATO said military equipment in east Europe was to deterre Iran from attacking Europe but when first Deal was made they didn't withdraw the hardware.
      And from a Latin American pov I can tell you that the rest of American countries don't have freedom to choose their alliance. Historically we have been Washington's back yard and as soon as one country differs from Washington POV is either sanctioned, invaded, has a military cup, change of regimen etc
      Nor Monroe doctrine nor carrot stick have gone anywhere
      PSD: not native English speaker sorry for my spelling mistakes

    • @coraltown1
      @coraltown1 2 года назад +69

      It's like understanding Hitler's POV, not so complicated.

  • @RamiShreds
    @RamiShreds Год назад +10

    So a year and a half in and Russia hasn't even completed phase 1 😂

  • @linden7362
    @linden7362 2 года назад +54

    Now that this has become reality, we get to watch it play out in real time. I'm a fan of irony, and I keep thinking of an infamous quote in history: "We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down." ... I haven't seen a tactical mistake this big since my bullfrog, Smacky, choked to death trying to swallow a bird. Poor, stupid Smacky.

    • @c128stuff
      @c128stuff 2 года назад +2

      No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy.

    • @Edax_Royeaux
      @Edax_Royeaux 2 года назад

      Turns out Russia was the sick man of Europe all along.

    • @headoverheels88
      @headoverheels88 2 года назад

      RIP Smacky :( No RIP Moskva, Russia's most advanced, biggest battleship that was just sunk by two Ukranian land missles. Sad!

    • @Edax_Royeaux
      @Edax_Royeaux 2 года назад +1

      @@headoverheels88 On the 110 anniversary of the Titanic no less!

    • @headoverheels88
      @headoverheels88 2 года назад

      ​@@Edax_Royeaux History may not always repeat, but by god does it know how to rhyme.

  • @erlemartincarvalho1733
    @erlemartincarvalho1733 2 года назад +289

    One of the most concise and factual presentation on the possibilities with regard to military moves, consequences and outcome. Kudos! Keep it up.

    • @d3r4g45
      @d3r4g45 2 года назад +5

      it's a russian propaganda video ..

    • @HebrewsElevenTwentyFive
      @HebrewsElevenTwentyFive 2 года назад

      @@d3r4g45 Indeed.

    • @geoffreymee7671
      @geoffreymee7671 2 года назад +2

      So what type of invasion would you perefer.
      After all, Russian troops are not surrounding Ukrania spreading love are they?

    • @M60gunner1971
      @M60gunner1971 2 года назад +1

      @@d3r4g45 Russia can consume the Peanuts from the feces of the baboon.

    • @d3r4g45
      @d3r4g45 2 года назад +1

      Russian moutpeace propaganda video.
      by Caspian (attack now) Report 5:40

  • @sunstorm4436
    @sunstorm4436 2 года назад +64

    But russia is a nuclear-armed state. Nuclear armed states don’t get invaded - just ask North Korea. … So I don’t see what Russia is so worried about.
    Starting a war with ukraine seems pointless. Even if nato was right next door, no one is going to invade a nuclear-armed russia.

    • @tomgjgj
      @tomgjgj 2 года назад +44

      It's not really about security. It's about being seen as being a big dick superpower.

    • @chuila7234
      @chuila7234 2 года назад +16

      It is a hegemony struggle, and the USA is the one that is declining. Some empires have done a lot of stupid shit to maintain its hold over its sphere of influence. If Ukraine joined NATO, not only does the Russian military undermanned, the plausibility of NATO stationing nuclear weapons in ukraine grows exponentially. We as public can not predict future warfare accurately, but the threat of nukes still give a lot of leverage over the other side.

    • @bbbtttt1064
      @bbbtttt1064 2 года назад +11

      You never know the future and countries have to always prepare for the worst case scenario.
      If US in the position of Russia they would do the same.

    • @wtfbros5110
      @wtfbros5110 2 года назад +13

      Yeah the entire thing is dumb, thats like Russia putting nuclear missiles on Cub-

    • @andreamusu9224
      @andreamusu9224 2 года назад +19

      Russia perceives Ukraine as a vassal state. The more vassal states you have, the stronger your influence on the world stage. Losing control over Ukraine in 2014 greatly weakened Russia. If they do nothing, they will continue to weaken and decline.

  • @CraftingStudios1337
    @CraftingStudios1337 2 года назад +18

    It's no longer a 'would', lads.

  • @Dogebro200
    @Dogebro200 Год назад +30

    The fact that we overestimated russia is just laughable

  • @moulayismail1546
    @moulayismail1546 2 года назад +278

    Giving up its nuclear weapons after the fall of the USSR was ukrain's deadliest mistake.

    • @dragosstanciu9866
      @dragosstanciu9866 2 года назад +122

      Ukraine had no choice. Neither Russia nor NATO could stand to have a nuclear armed Ukraine.

    • @Nathan-Roman
      @Nathan-Roman 2 года назад +52

      then we would have seen this happen 30 years ago

    • @rayeya3138
      @rayeya3138 2 года назад +52

      @@dragosstanciu9866 If Ukraine refused to give up its weapons, what would Russia and NATO have done?

    • @dragosstanciu9866
      @dragosstanciu9866 2 года назад +27

      @@rayeya3138 Impose economic sanctions. Just like in North Korea's case.

    • @ghjkjjghjk4702
      @ghjkjjghjk4702 2 года назад +5

      its not like they got the bomb codes, both the US and Russia wanted their nukes out of it, If it didn't do that there wouldn't be a ukrain to begin with.

  • @iskabin
    @iskabin 2 года назад +17

    Pretty sure Putin watched this before invading

  • @brettfafata3017
    @brettfafata3017 2 года назад +10

    Who's here after it happened?

  • @theuselessdrunk
    @theuselessdrunk 2 года назад +12

    russians like: you know what? i'm going through radiation zone even harder

  • @bcvetkov8534
    @bcvetkov8534 2 года назад +23

    Coming back to this video after the actual war broke out. Fucking surreal. Hopefully peace is restored soon.

  • @wombats2016
    @wombats2016 2 года назад +36

    Ominous foreboding here... Watched it back in Jan and now watching it unfold almost exactly in real time.

  • @kaneki-t
    @kaneki-t 2 года назад +18

    Congrats dude, your animation has now a live adaptation!

  • @georgechristiansen6785
    @georgechristiansen6785 7 месяцев назад +5

    This aged badly.

  • @bradsillasen1972
    @bradsillasen1972 2 года назад +668

    I've been paying a lot of attention to the news, but this production offered tons of new information. Great job! The volume of quality material Caspian Report generates is impressive. If you can say, I'd like to know, how many people on your team?

    • @TheGrindcorps
      @TheGrindcorps 2 года назад +24

      It’s not surprising considering they have been lying to Russia about NATO expansion for 30 years. Not sure they would have given up all their satellite states in CCCP if US and NATO said they were going to try to expand into every single former Soviet and Warsaw pact state.
      Actually I’m sire they wouldn’t. Shouldn’t have been so dishonest for 30 years.

    • @orepurifier
      @orepurifier 2 года назад +40

      @@TheGrindcorps yea. Theyve pretty much backed the bear into a corner and left it with no other choice than to fight back. Western arrogance and hypocrisy yet again leads to another war.

    • @K1ddkanuck
      @K1ddkanuck 2 года назад +23

      I've been wondering the same thing. If Shirvan does all of this himself, man, what a boss.

    • @icmull
      @icmull 2 года назад +8

      You dont really need to watch the bews if you understand the geopolitics. I find watching this ans reading geopolitics whenever news is discussed I understand it better than those who watch the news.

    • @questerperipatetic4861
      @questerperipatetic4861 2 года назад +38

      @@TheGrindcorps NATO has never expanded. Not once. An expansion implies moving in and taking over, like the Russians did in Crimea. On the contrary, all the newer NATO allies begged to join. Why? Ask ANY citizen whose country borders Russia about history.

  • @13Ixidor
    @13Ixidor 2 года назад +388

    Hey man, officer in the US Mil here. These videos are some of the best open source geostrategic content out there.
    The editing is tight, the visuals and music complement it well, and I don't have to sit through an hour panel to get to the point.
    Keep up the great work, you are responsible for a lot of people getting way more aware.

    • @marmitesquire6622
      @marmitesquire6622 2 года назад +31

      glad to see the US military getting only the best strategic advice

    • @dankuser8303
      @dankuser8303 2 года назад +12

      Than you for your service

    • @tilda140
      @tilda140 2 года назад +22

      I think folks on both sides of the aisle come here for real information and not curated propaganda from our respective sides.

    • @M60gunner1971
      @M60gunner1971 2 года назад +11

      Russia can consume vast truckloads of fecal matter.

    • @basedelon
      @basedelon 2 года назад +6

      @@marmitesquire6622 why are you glad the US military get their advice from a RUclipsr? Emma and her two moms wasn't enough?

  • @mcpaintball
    @mcpaintball 2 года назад +10

    And who would've thought that instead of going around Cherynobyl, they'd go right through and try to set up camp in the middle of it?

    • @markr6273
      @markr6273 2 года назад +4

      they did not try, they succeed to set up camp there!

    • @ThePandafriend
      @ThePandafriend 2 года назад +6

      @@markr6273 And got radiation poisoning in the process...

    • @oo--7714
      @oo--7714 2 года назад

      @@ThePandafriend there was no poisoning lol

    • @ThePandafriend
      @ThePandafriend 2 года назад +5

      @@oo--7714 Radiation poisoning is what you get after being exposed to high radiation. In the case of the Russians they literally breathed in radioactive dust. But also the long exposure in general can cause that.

    • @G.A.C_Preserve
      @G.A.C_Preserve Год назад

      @@oo--7714 I'm from the future and yes, They do

  • @auritro3903
    @auritro3903 2 года назад +14

    10:19 russia was literally like: "screw this"

  • @zeratulcraft
    @zeratulcraft 2 года назад +313

    "A good plan executed violently is better than the perfect plan executed late." Or something like that anyway.

    • @burken123
      @burken123 2 года назад +3

      Patton stuff right there

    • @renaldiroekanto789
      @renaldiroekanto789 2 года назад +1

      you forgot:
      ~2022. Sun Tzu, Art of War.

    • @kimyeonahchannel
      @kimyeonahchannel 2 года назад +5

      Isn't it "A good plan executed now is better than the perfect plan executed late" ?

    • @Lepocoloco
      @Lepocoloco 2 года назад

      Yeah. More like something like that, than that.

    • @crispyglove
      @crispyglove 2 года назад +4

      “A good plan, violently executed now, is better than a perfect plan next week”

  • @MrRaghunandy
    @MrRaghunandy 2 года назад +317

    Finally , the wait is over, thanks Caspian report for objective and analytical report of the crisis . Love from India 👏

    • @Milos.L
      @Milos.L 2 года назад +1

      I agree 👍

    • @dcinput7645
      @dcinput7645 2 года назад +10

      Disagree. He said Ukraine can get into EU, but it's more likely that Serbia, Moldova, Kosovo, Montenegro or Bosnia would get into EU.... And that's not gonna happened. High corruption.

    • @clawthewonderful1520
      @clawthewonderful1520 2 года назад +1

      @@dcinput7645 the Nato may be corrupt, but isnt it more viable for nations threatened by russian than the weakening EU?

    • @Pietervandebuurt
      @Pietervandebuurt 2 года назад +1

      @@clawthewonderful1520 ??? What do you mean by comparing NATO and EU ? You know almost all EU members are also NATO. So i dont really get the point your trying to make about EU

    • @Pietervandebuurt
      @Pietervandebuurt 2 года назад +1

      @@clawthewonderful1520 Since the EU is also more a economic/political cooperation, and NATO is a military/political cooperation.

  • @vejet
    @vejet 2 года назад +11

    "A professional military could move across a distance of 750 km in a day or two..."
    lowut? 👁👄👁
    Somebody needs to tell this man about logistics!! 😂

  • @ytismylife7057
    @ytismylife7057 2 года назад +13

    This aged extremely well.

  • @xkxndwb4991
    @xkxndwb4991 2 года назад +42

    Holy the graphics/graphic motions were good before but you have leveled them up here! It's sooo clean

    • @kma3647
      @kma3647 2 года назад +2

      Caspian Report is better news reporting than literally any major Western news source. Good quality graphics. Long enough format to discuss some of the complexities of an issue beyond the sloganeering you get in a 3-5 min news segment. Generally well-researched, though he occasionally makes mistakes. The comments section being open lets the audience correct those things quickly. Shirvan's insightful and intelligent and sometimes draws interesting and unique conclusions. What can I say? I'm a fan.

    • @Adam-dd5fx
      @Adam-dd5fx 2 года назад +1

      @@kma3647 why are you saying "western news source" I like caspian report more than the western news sources but they are far better than asian, african and eastern european ones

  • @Darkrunn
    @Darkrunn 2 года назад +19

    Man your map animations are really really great here. Captivating without being too flashy and distracting. Your analysis remains as insightful as always. Good to see this channel growing and improving.

  • @nutyyyy
    @nutyyyy 2 года назад +13

    In the end they didn't even go around the Chernobyl exclusion zone just straight through it.

  • @Clifford_Banes
    @Clifford_Banes 2 года назад +38

    Watching this almost 3 months in the war and it looks like the russians should have watched it too, it's a far better plan than the mess they did.

    • @ghostisdead5943
      @ghostisdead5943 2 года назад +1

      K armchair general

    • @richardarriaga6271
      @richardarriaga6271 2 года назад +1

      @@ghostisdead5943 Several armchair RUclips generals could have told Russia to not occupy nuclear power plants, particularly Chernobyl. Or try to bring tanks into an urban combat zone without infantry support. Or vainly hope to cut off communications when satellite uplinks could keep civilians and military in contact with each other.

  • @wexer82
    @wexer82 2 года назад +726

    I want to compliment you for the ever-increasing value of your production; the extra work is noticeable and appreciated.

    • @poultryfornicator4412
      @poultryfornicator4412 2 года назад +6

      RUclips needs more comments like this. 👍🏼

    • @zeblanmaidaynovich796
      @zeblanmaidaynovich796 2 года назад +1

      Everything already happened 7 years ago that's why Russia win over the west and neonazi ukraine when Crimea and Donbas whole part of east Ukraine is pro-Russian 😂😃😆to bad many western trolls on YT are brainless and got no logic to realize that LOL

    • @RuStOlIuM420
      @RuStOlIuM420 2 года назад +1

      (In my gary vee voice) this content has lots of value have you thought about an nft

    • @poultryfornicator4412
      @poultryfornicator4412 2 года назад +1

      @@zeblanmaidaynovich796 lmao okay bud 🤣

    • @tomwood4746
      @tomwood4746 2 года назад

      @@zeblanmaidaynovich796 Putin is the new Hitler and thus you are a neonazi

  • @WAJK2030
    @WAJK2030 2 года назад +237

    As a former military, I believe the battle plan you present is not realistic. Attacking in waves is counter productive and gives Ukraine the opportunity to shift forces around. If Russia would attack, they should go all in on the eastern part of Ukraine (1/3 of it, east of dnepr). I mean several attack prongs at the same time. Also Ukraine got more than 2,600 Main battle tanks and more than 4,600 APCs and IFVs l, which makes it 7,200 armoured vehicles, not 3,600. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_Ukrainian_Ground_Forces
    The last thing on this: Russia would need at least 250,000 ground forces to pull off what I described, assuming they just block off major cities (to deal later with them) and use of superior artillery + recce.

    • @ferdinand8994
      @ferdinand8994 2 года назад +41

      This guy has no idea what he's talking about 🤣 i had a good laugh at his opinions presented as facts

    • @BadRussian77
      @BadRussian77 2 года назад +8

      Und vor allem bleibt die Frage offen wozu. Srlbst wenn Russland die Ukraine besetzt, was soll Russland weiter machen? Außerdrm, wie von dir erwähnt, für eine ricjtige Invadion sind immer noch nicht genügend Trupprn da. Für den Irak haben die Amis so um 800 Tausend Truppen gesammelt. Deshalb ist die Invasion eher unwahrscheinlich.

    • @beckenbaylin3167
      @beckenbaylin3167 2 года назад +22

      I think that Russia is in fact capable of fully occupying Ukraine, maybe even in the matter of months, that is not even debated, the insane aerial advantage the Russians have would allow them to push far and quick. Now why they won't just take Ukraine with an all out assault is because of worldwide geopolitics.
      After all, the goal of Russia is to prevent NATO from stepping on their toes through their incursions. Occupying Ukraine is most likely their last ditch plan. If they aggressively invade, they are likely to see a much more united and forceful response from the worldwide community. Crippling sanctions and a possible military intervention will force Russia to play it carefully and rely more on their soft power and military pressure on each stage of the offensive instead on an all out military occupation which could lead to a disproportionate backlash

    • @Inoffensive_name
      @Inoffensive_name 2 года назад +9

      @@BadRussian77 That would be excellent. We do not want there to be conflict. We just do not want a dictator invading innocent democracies more.

    • @Pietervandebuurt
      @Pietervandebuurt 2 года назад +18

      He should make the title instead of ''would look like'' ''could look like'', cause i dont think this is a likely scenario at all.

  • @mathiasbartl903
    @mathiasbartl903 2 года назад +6

    Did you just say that a professional military could make 750 miles a day, because that is a blind man talking about colors.

  • @thegoat5587
    @thegoat5587 2 года назад +14

    As of late April, things didnt go as planned for Russia!

  • @JLAvey
    @JLAvey 2 года назад +69

    Taking everything to the Dnieper might serve Russia's purpose in having a defensible barrier. Not as effective as a buffer as things like East Germany or Hungary but a sight better than open steppe.

    • @jeremiahblake3949
      @jeremiahblake3949 2 года назад +11

      Eh in modern warfare it might not really mean anything to have a barrier with as little stratigic depth as a river.

    • @leonardos2925
      @leonardos2925 2 года назад +8

      Absolutely not. War is totally harmful today. The current era is totally different, you're not in the time of the Romans, today the disputes are for international markets. So there's more in mind of some Russians than "a deep barrier".

    • @louisecorchevolle9241
      @louisecorchevolle9241 2 года назад

      you are making a fiction Russia doest not care of Ukraine it is bankrupt the wait for its implosion

    • @SMGJohn
      @SMGJohn 2 года назад +4

      @Joscha Wexler
      DPRK are not a buffer zone, but rather a castle surrounded by enemies, both China and Russia would rather see Kim and Socialism being removed in favour of a friendly pro-Capitalist Federative government ruled by either pro-Chinese government or a pro-Russian one. DPRK stations weapons near both China and Russian border and has mass array of fortifications around this area. They do not trust anyone and neither should they.

    • @TheBKnight3
      @TheBKnight3 2 года назад +1

      Why not the Rhine? Why not the English Channel? Why not the entire Atlantic Ocean?

  • @Tgungen
    @Tgungen 2 года назад +66

    Let us not forget that there's only one thing for certain for Modern Warfare; it's completely unpredictable.
    Take the Second Nagaro Karabakh War for example; at the start, many assumed that war would go on for at least a year and have the same level of devastation as the first War. But instead, it was so quick and decisive for the Azeris that not even the most pro-Azeri sources thought the victory would be so easy for them, because pretty much all military strategists underestimated the potential effectiveness of UAVs. And in comparison to the first one, Second Nagaro Karabakh War ended in little over a month and resulted in 8,000~ dead, while the First War lasted for 6 years and tens of thousands of dead.
    There are definitely factors in Ukraine that we are all might be overlooking. So who knows, maybe this whole invasion will be much more easier or harder for the Russia.

    • @ElijahSmith
      @ElijahSmith 2 года назад +7

      I am from Ukraine. Tens of thousands of civil people have joined local Territorial Defence Forces and got basic military education by professional soldiers. Everybody will fight till the very end.

    • @rnsc8342
      @rnsc8342 2 года назад +2

      Its more predictable if you know the variables, which is impossible for most people who know bits but not the whole., and many analyses dont look at much. Terrain matters. Can any army drive down the few available roads on key sectors, or worse, through forrests teeming with Ukrainian troops? How much preparation has the Ukraine done , or can it do when attacked, and will that start early enough? How much modern equipment like ATGW has the Ukraine added to old armour? What did it have, whats it now got? And fundamentally who in history has succeeded in taking big cities with only about 60000 infantry who are massively outnumbered. How brutal does it get before oversess intervention, and Russias leaders find themselves indicted for waging aggressive war and sssorted war crimes.?

    • @edwardsnowden8821
      @edwardsnowden8821 2 года назад

      @Joscha Wexler USA: hold my burger DPRK

    • @edwardsnowden8821
      @edwardsnowden8821 2 года назад

      @Joscha Wexler Biden: hold my submarine plane

    • @edwardsnowden8821
      @edwardsnowden8821 2 года назад +1

      @Joscha Wexler Xi to Tsai: hold your economy reliant on the mainland while I sanction you

  • @SamWatts89
    @SamWatts89 2 года назад +18

    Only one thing wrong is that he says russia needs 325,000 boots on the ground, but each soldier presumably wears 2 boots so it should be 650,000

    • @scoobiusmaximus9508
      @scoobiusmaximus9508 2 года назад

      Also based on the competence we're seeing from Russia right now and the magnitude of material support from the west I would expect that the number of troops Russia would need is above 400,000. I also don't think the Russian economy could support that type of occupation very long even before the western sanctions.
      If Putin wants to occupy all or most of Ukraine his endgame at this point is unwinnable. If he just wants the more Russia friendly east and the Black Sea coast that might still be achievable, but the farther west he goes the more people dislike Russia and the greater the access to material aid from NATO. Maybe it won't be that bad for him by Transnistria but any part of Ukraine near Poland especially will be full of NATO provided weapons and be very costly to occupy.

  • @adambaidoo5385
    @adambaidoo5385 2 года назад +26

    Watched this 3 weeks ago ( just minutes after you released this video) and SHIRVAN you were spot on . I can’t believe this unfolding right under my eyes. Keep up the great work

  • @sassulusmagnus
    @sassulusmagnus 2 года назад +319

    It's interesting to hear what shape a Russian assault strategy might take, but this description seems to largely overlook possible substantial involvement by countries supportive of Ukrainian sovereignty. Russian military strategists are surely anticipating more than diplomacy and negotiation efforts in response to Russian incursion into Ukraine.

    • @doomerbloomer6160
      @doomerbloomer6160 2 года назад +60

      If it takes russia only a couple weeks to fulfill their objectives, the West won't have enough time to mobilize and send a substantial amount of military support to Ukraine. Also, sending more than just token volunteer forces would require western countries to actively declare war on russia (and Belarus). I don't see NATO declaring war, but I hope I'm wrong if it comes to that. Either way, a military intervention takes TIME! And if russia is swift enough, there won't be anything the west will be able to do. Which means the west will have to prepare NOW!

    • @bernardoohigginsvevo2974
      @bernardoohigginsvevo2974 2 года назад +85

      Eh, I have a feeling that most foreign support for Ukraine will only be diplomatic and humanitarian. If an insurgency ends up forming like Shirvan predicts, then NATO will probably supply that too.

    • @TheProjectVoid
      @TheProjectVoid 2 года назад +15

      This news is EXTREMELY Biased and false

    • @TheWorldEnd2
      @TheWorldEnd2 2 года назад +21

      @@doomerbloomer6160 Where have i heard that "couple of weeks" before... something something 1939... didnt go all that well

    • @rb98769
      @rb98769 2 года назад +65

      @Nobody Important The idea of a tyrant in the US is quite ridiculous for various reasons. For starters, it's been consistently one of the most stable countries in history, unlike Russia. Moreover, it's a highly decentralized country, unlike Russia, which means any form of tyranny is prone to face regional opposition as the tyrant would be powerless without winning a gruesome civil war. This idea that everyone just needs to put down their weapons is hilarious as you assume everyone operates under the same paradigms when Russia and China's international politics are permeated by notions that come straight out of the 19th century. It's kind of funny people actually believe that small countries having some international relevance and autonomy is something that would normally exist without imposition when it's a fairly recent exception to the rule imposed on the world by an US-led world order. The world is much happier without your delusions of "world domination" as you put it, so kindly fuck off.

  • @papitroy
    @papitroy 2 года назад +21

    I have been checking your page everyday for a week now to hear your take on this matter. Easily my favorite channel for geopolitics.

  • @sirierieott5882
    @sirierieott5882 2 года назад +40

    Re: Russian armed forces invasion of Ukraine
    Excellent predictive summary with one interesting and encouraging error. You saw the counter-insurgency as a separate phase once the complete country had been invaded by overwhelming force. In reality, the modern anti-tank weaponry that any Ukranian soldier can carry now being used to great effect on Russian armour makes every infantryman a hybrid force multiplier with the power to kill a tank on their own at any time of their choosing. They could wait for days by a road and simply destroy a tank as it goes by then disappear all on their own. That prospect is pretty terrifying to every tank crew and can wear them down quickly with nervous exhaustion.

    • @meferswift
      @meferswift 2 года назад +2

      The fact that russian don't really protects their armor is strange.

    • @We.Waz.Kangz.N.Sheeit
      @We.Waz.Kangz.N.Sheeit 2 года назад +2

      True. But it's the Russians currently consolidating land just as Shirvan says. I dont know why they are sending some tanks in all alone, but those tanks being destroyed are not a factor. They will bring more and more power into the areas they control. Then they can fortify those areas and wait. Meanwhile southern, northern and eastern Ukraine will be a fortress of Russians. Ukraine will need to get serious weaponry to penetrate that.

    • @toyotacrown512
      @toyotacrown512 Год назад

      After the holiday of Santa Claus, every Russian soldier will have a drone control panel in his hands.
      2023 will be the most interesting year for Ukrainian terrorists.

  • @kensearle4451
    @kensearle4451 2 года назад +6

    And, here we are.

  • @Aeyekay0
    @Aeyekay0 2 года назад +66

    This whole situation is wild, there hasn’t been a possible war of this magnitude in decades

    • @potatofuryy
      @potatofuryy 2 года назад +4

      @Sky Mile I don’t think China is going to attack Ukraine but ok

    • @Nazar_Melnyk
      @Nazar_Melnyk 2 года назад +11

      @@potatofuryy it could invade Taiwan... That has a defense agreement with Japan... That itself has similar agreements with USA...

    • @dylanroemmele906
      @dylanroemmele906 2 года назад +8

      It’s sad people are acting so uncivilized and barbaric in this century. This is something you’d expect from dirty Victorian Warmongers, not a civilized superpower.

    • @darth3911
      @darth3911 2 года назад

      @@potatofuryy China has border disputes with almost all nations that border it,
      With that said with what Russias doing it’s a good distraction to invade one of the disputed areas.

    • @potatofuryy
      @potatofuryy 2 года назад

      @@darth3911 that is sure is, I'd be worried for Taiwan

  • @saphironkindris
    @saphironkindris 2 года назад +51

    I think there are two main options. If Russia wants to go for the big play, they're in a remarkably good position to launch full assaults on Kharkiv and Kyiv in a blitz, going for a 'shock and awe' approach and attempting to force a quick surrender. They already have military convoys in belarus and on the north-eastern border of ukraine near Kharkiv. With large amounts of Ukraines military being focused in the south to quell problems in the donetsk and luhansk, I think they could do it effectively if they move quickly and don't give the ukraine time to respond. The big problem is, this will go against their built narrative, and cause alarm bells to go off (more so than they are already) across the world, painting Russia unambigously as the villains. I also don't think they want to completely give up having Ukraine as an independant country 'buffer' to the rest of Europe.
    What I think the more likely option is, is that they will attempt to claim all of Luhansk and Donetsk, including the city of Mariupol which has thus far held out against aggressions. They will then attempt to negotiate with Ukraine, promising a cessation of hostilities if the territory in southern Ukraine is ceded, giving Russia the land bridge to Crimea and full control of the coast east of crimea. They will drag this process out for years with the threat of a siege of Kyiv/Kharkiv hanging around, preventing Ukraine from joining Nato on the grounds of being in an active conflict with them already, keeping their buffer from europe, but claiming important coastal areas they want. I don't see them moving to the west of the river in this case, as it's a good natural border point.

    • @donaldfox6323
      @donaldfox6323 2 года назад +4

      That's... Pretty much what they have done.
      U called it

    • @dirremoire
      @dirremoire 2 года назад +6

      Kiev shot itself in the foot by not honoring the Minsk accords. Now they have lost the Donbass for good.

    • @CaptainQwazCaz
      @CaptainQwazCaz 2 года назад +6

      This is the most realistic option in my opinion. Russia doesn't become the villain, Russia takes over Luhansk and Donetsk, and Ukraine won't be able to join NATO.

    • @max2themax
      @max2themax 2 года назад +4

      Blitz it was

    • @CaptainQwazCaz
      @CaptainQwazCaz 2 года назад

      Villains it is

  • @davidpe76
    @davidpe76 2 года назад +26

    The most well balanced perspective I have seen, and this was before the conflict turned hot.

  • @pappkop1988
    @pappkop1988 2 года назад +10

    Looks like they skiped some steps today and went straight to phase three...

  • @DweeD1516
    @DweeD1516 2 года назад +17

    Wow what a great video. WAY better than any of these mainstream media sources or video reports I have seen all over from many different media organizations. One hundred times better and also just overall the best explanation so far on the Ukraine/Russia situation. Good work man and thanks for it!

  • @johnhopkins6260
    @johnhopkins6260 2 года назад +39

    Completely ignores the fact that Ukraine surrendered their Nuclear arsenal, *with Both Russian and Western assurances of territorial integrity* ... blatantly violating said in Crimea (If Crimea was "always part of Russia", why *OVER THE LAST 60 YEARS* was that never indicated on Soviet/Russian maps?? - Donbass, Luhansk notwithstanding)

    • @phasorthunder1157
      @phasorthunder1157 2 года назад +4

      Not only that, but the Russian SFSR transferred Crimea to Ukraine in the 1950s.

    • @DonChingon357
      @DonChingon357 2 года назад +2

      That went out the window when Ukraine started to steer it's way towards NATO and EU. Russia will never allow it.

    • @fredmdbud
      @fredmdbud 2 года назад +5

      @@phasorthunder1157 And during WW2, native Tatars were expelled and forced into Central Asia, and Russian populations were introduced, much like other annexed territories like the Baltics. The land was never eternally Russian.

    • @igregmart
      @igregmart 2 года назад +1

      When I heard that Ukraine was going to do that many years ago, I thought OH OH. Big mistake.

    • @welran
      @welran 2 года назад

      @@fredmdbud so we need to expell those WASP migrants from americans territories. They nether was eternaly USA. Russia captured Crimea only 7 years after USA was created. Crimea was in Russia longer then California in USA.

  • @emhutchi
    @emhutchi 2 года назад +8

    Russian Military Planners: Ok, we are going to do a coordinated arms attack in three phases, everybody got it? Three separate, distinct phases. Got it???
    Putin: Alright chums! Lets do this...LEEROOOOOOOOOOY JEEEEENKIIIIINNNNS!
    Russian Military Planners: Oh my god, he just ran in.

    • @AnonymousTheThird
      @AnonymousTheThird 2 года назад +1

      Stick to the plan, comrades! No casualties!
      ...
      ...
      You're such a huilo, vlad!

  • @badrulalam4077
    @badrulalam4077 2 года назад +22

    Yesterday (24-february-2022) war actually sneaked like a thief in the night, dear Shivran.
    We don't know much about the current positions, but I guess something like your description is happening. Only exception is that so far russian troops have not yet passed through Donbass.
    In the end, you are right in many things. Thank you for existing, man.

  • @cristianamesmasek8420
    @cristianamesmasek8420 2 года назад +585

    It is really difficult these days to find an objective point of view regarding the Ukraininan conflict. I appreciate you took the time Shirvan to explain things without byasing the content of your video. Thank you once more Shirvan, your content is really informative.

    • @drexxler138
      @drexxler138 2 года назад +24

      You will notice, most wars have multiple sides to the conflict. Its nearly impossible to dictate what’s right and what’s wrong, in an objective sense.

    • @simulping4371
      @simulping4371 2 года назад +2

      @@drexxler138 well then, listen to all sides and conclude them yourself

    • @kanalnr1
      @kanalnr1 2 года назад +22

      he is not objective

    • @cheshirehat93
      @cheshirehat93 2 года назад +21

      This was anything but objective though.

    • @MI1T
      @MI1T 2 года назад +4

      @A True.

  • @patrickdurham8393
    @patrickdurham8393 2 года назад +13

    Except for overrating Russian competence and planning this video has aged very well.

  • @kianfallah2406
    @kianfallah2406 2 года назад +6

    Who else is here after the war has already started?
    What a bizarre thing to say.

  • @sandwich2473
    @sandwich2473 2 года назад +5

    10:15
    Russians: "but what if we _didn't_ 🧐"