I 100% think he'll go much higher than the second round, I'm betting he'll be top-ten. That's just where I grade him out from a talent standpoint, but there's no denying that he has a top-ten ceiling
2nd round is fair, but teams will ignore the tape and just stat watch. His mechanics is so so and his inability to read a defense will be an issue after a season or two
Here goes the casting doubt on "some QB" because their have weapons. And at the same time not saying that about others. Nobody casted Doubt on Joe Burrow when he had the NFL all pro first team wideouts to throw too in Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase.. (toss in a 2nd rounder in Tereence Marshell)... nobody said that repeatedly about Mac Jones even tho he had 3 first round wide outs to throw too and a first round RB . SMH You created narrative of what happened instead of reflecting what happened on film. Only ONE thing made sense is the need of him to slide.
People definitely brought it up about those two, TDScoutings' report on Burrow had that listed as a concern for example. And even many scouts didn't, Mac Jones is proof that we need to consider that more when looking at a prospect. He threw for 4,500-41-4 in his last season with Alabama, which is objectively elite, but the context about how and why he was able to do that was an important part of the evaluation on him that people didn't put enough stock into. Daniels has a very high ceiling, but like I mentioned in the video, I think his success will be dependent on how well a coaching staff can build a scheme around him in the NFL.
@@FallBallSports the point is if you are looking at a QB's situations and not their individual skill sets then you aren't evaluating properly. You will miss a high % of your projections and consistently you will miss You have to know the difference between a players situation and a players skill. If you base assessments off end results without it matching the film then you aren't doing it right. My rules for QB evolutions have been dead on and simple there are definable tangible elements that can be observed and measured Command in the pocket And Anticipation with accuracy Both of these have parts Command in the pocket really means can a QB keep their eyes down field and feel the rush not look at the rush? Are the CCCD.. Calm, Collected, Composed and a theme of good decision making. Anticipation with accruracy is dependent on this.. you can not do that with it the above. Then there is a spectrum of each persons perception of what is open and what isn't. QB's with a wider range of throws isn't just because "they can make any throw".. it is because they even believe with confidence that throw is there. It isn't just if they can read a defense in a x and o computer formant... it is can they instinctively "See it".. some don't make a certain throw because they just don't even perceive it as a opportunity in the first place. Penix Jr has the widest spectrum of throws he can make with confidence and accuracy. And his command in the pocket enables him to allow plays to develop. . All the extra stuff like levels of mobility has a lot of people repeating football jargon. But in reality that is a plus not a NEED.. ...if you dropped a 25 year old Tom Brady onto the Pats this year they would be back to doing what they did. Too many evalution are made on hype and narratives instead of actually compartmentalized reasearch and break down based on more of a forensic piece by piece understanding of the moving parts.
I agree that if you look at situation alone, then you probably won't get the full picture. That's why I watched the film, but took in the context of his situation to help explain why things were the way that they were, and whether or not that will reasonably sustain if/when he goes to a worse offense in the NFL. For example, Daniels is slow to progress through reads, but that was masked up in college thanks to his elite receivers and thanks to his offensive line that gave the plays plenty of time to develop. It wouldn't appear to be an issue for him upon first glance, but that's why the context of his situation is important in determining whether or not the positives or negatives of his game will efficiently translate to the NFL. Your method of evaluating quarterbacks is simple, but it leaves out the possibility of outliers. For example, Lamar Jackson was widely criticized for his lack of accuracy, poor decision making, and his sub-par ability to play under pressure. By your standards, he would've been a poor prospect, but now he's about to win his second MVP. Evaluating prospects isn't an exact science, so it's necessary to look at each player on an individual level and the context of their situation to determine if they can repeat their success in the NFL. @@shankdiddy9045
@@FallBallSports Slow going thru reads? I think this is your confirmation bias. There is so much going into making a take on if a guy is slow going thru reads without knowing how they coach it and what the expectations are. So when i look at it i add up the film and is there a theme of mistakes? no.. Can he make unique throws? Yes.. All of this sounds like gateway talk. Because for the this very thing you are saying I saw the other QB's as significant worse. Drake Maye was a train wreck in this regard. Caleb Williams had me watching his All22 cut ups for months just thinking maybe i am watching the wrong player because it doesn't match the narrative. So yea it is so tough to say reads are slow without also dinging all of the other QB's with similar instances at high volumes of it on film. For example Bo Nix was very quick but their system was completely different. So you have to look at what are they coaching and what is the expectations within their scheme. If you are a down field chunk play oriented scheme then their maybe more holding the ball than Oregans bubble screen 12 plus times a game.
I stand by my analysis, but it's quite possible that he turns out to be highly successful. Lets not forget -- an early second round grade is a good grade. I think that he has a high ceiling and could turn into one of the NFL's best thanks to his rushing ability, but I also think that there are some red flags that people are overlooking with him. I think he's a great kid and I'd be happy if he makes this report look silly in a few years time, but I'm just trying to present what I see on film in an unbiased way without emotion.
Great stuff, this channel should be much bigger.
Appreciate the love, thanks for tuning in!
i just noticed you have under 400 subs. that’s very surprising. i’ve been bingeing your videos lol
Haha thanks for the love man, I appreciate it!
Good stuff man! I think he goes top 6 and is in that tier! Either way we all have our own opinions. Looking forward to the next video
Oh yeah I think he'll definitely go somewhere in the top ten -- just not sure that I would take him there if I was a GM. Thanks for tuning in!
Him getting an early second round grade from you is crazy considering most mocks have him top 5 and top 10
I 100% think he'll go much higher than the second round, I'm betting he'll be top-ten. That's just where I grade him out from a talent standpoint, but there's no denying that he has a top-ten ceiling
2nd round is fair, but teams will ignore the tape and just stat watch. His mechanics is so so and his inability to read a defense will be an issue after a season or two
94 rush ypg is crazy! Reminds me of Justin Fields but with more presence
Here goes the casting doubt on "some QB" because their have weapons. And at the same time not saying that about others. Nobody casted Doubt on Joe Burrow when he had the NFL all pro first team wideouts to throw too in Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase.. (toss in a 2nd rounder in Tereence Marshell)... nobody said that repeatedly about Mac Jones even tho he had 3 first round wide outs to throw too and a first round RB . SMH
You created narrative of what happened instead of reflecting what happened on film. Only ONE thing made sense is the need of him to slide.
People definitely brought it up about those two, TDScoutings' report on Burrow had that listed as a concern for example. And even many scouts didn't, Mac Jones is proof that we need to consider that more when looking at a prospect. He threw for 4,500-41-4 in his last season with Alabama, which is objectively elite, but the context about how and why he was able to do that was an important part of the evaluation on him that people didn't put enough stock into. Daniels has a very high ceiling, but like I mentioned in the video, I think his success will be dependent on how well a coaching staff can build a scheme around him in the NFL.
@@FallBallSports the point is if you are looking at a QB's situations and not their individual skill sets then you aren't evaluating properly. You will miss a high % of your projections and consistently you will miss
You have to know the difference between a players situation and a players skill. If you base assessments off end results without it matching the film then you aren't doing it right.
My rules for QB evolutions have been dead on and simple
there are definable tangible elements that can be observed and measured
Command in the pocket
And Anticipation with accuracy
Both of these have parts
Command in the pocket really means can a QB keep their eyes down field and feel the rush not look at the rush? Are the CCCD.. Calm, Collected, Composed and a theme of good decision making.
Anticipation with accruracy is dependent on this.. you can not do that with it the above. Then there is a spectrum of each persons perception of what is open and what isn't. QB's with a wider range of throws isn't just because "they can make any throw".. it is because they even believe with confidence that throw is there. It isn't just if they can read a defense in a x and o computer formant... it is can they instinctively "See it".. some don't make a certain throw because they just don't even perceive it as a opportunity in the first place.
Penix Jr has the widest spectrum of throws he can make with confidence and accuracy. And his command in the pocket enables him to allow plays to develop. .
All the extra stuff like levels of mobility has a lot of people repeating football jargon. But in reality that is a plus not a NEED.. ...if you dropped a 25 year old Tom Brady onto the Pats this year they would be back to doing what they did.
Too many evalution are made on hype and narratives instead of actually compartmentalized reasearch and break down based on more of a forensic piece by piece understanding of the moving parts.
I agree that if you look at situation alone, then you probably won't get the full picture. That's why I watched the film, but took in the context of his situation to help explain why things were the way that they were, and whether or not that will reasonably sustain if/when he goes to a worse offense in the NFL. For example, Daniels is slow to progress through reads, but that was masked up in college thanks to his elite receivers and thanks to his offensive line that gave the plays plenty of time to develop. It wouldn't appear to be an issue for him upon first glance, but that's why the context of his situation is important in determining whether or not the positives or negatives of his game will efficiently translate to the NFL.
Your method of evaluating quarterbacks is simple, but it leaves out the possibility of outliers. For example, Lamar Jackson was widely criticized for his lack of accuracy, poor decision making, and his sub-par ability to play under pressure. By your standards, he would've been a poor prospect, but now he's about to win his second MVP. Evaluating prospects isn't an exact science, so it's necessary to look at each player on an individual level and the context of their situation to determine if they can repeat their success in the NFL. @@shankdiddy9045
@@FallBallSports Slow going thru reads? I think this is your confirmation bias. There is so much going into making a take on if a guy is slow going thru reads without knowing how they coach it and what the expectations are. So when i look at it i add up the film and is there a theme of mistakes? no.. Can he make unique throws? Yes.. All of this sounds like gateway talk. Because for the this very thing you are saying I saw the other QB's as significant worse. Drake Maye was a train wreck in this regard. Caleb Williams had me watching his All22 cut ups for months just thinking maybe i am watching the wrong player because it doesn't match the narrative.
So yea it is so tough to say reads are slow without also dinging all of the other QB's with similar instances at high volumes of it on film. For example Bo Nix was very quick but their system was completely different. So you have to look at what are they coaching and what is the expectations within their scheme. If you are a down field chunk play oriented scheme then their maybe more holding the ball than Oregans bubble screen 12 plus times a game.
@@FallBallSportsi think with Oline and Wrs Mac could still be a top 15 qb but thats his ceiling
Drake may should actually be a day to pick based on his numbers and performance. Your comments Are not truthful
Future NFL star!
This was crap. Media said the same thing about Lamar Jackson, who looks like a two time MVP.
Lamar actually played comp in college and he wasn’t 24 years old
Media gets it right sometimes, media gets it wrong sometimes. For every Lamar Jackson there's a Malik Willis.
lamar is still trash his numbers are mid first mvp ill give him but 2nd hell no
Better attitude than Caleb Williams
You are a poor judge of talent. He will be successful more than you say.
I stand by my analysis, but it's quite possible that he turns out to be highly successful. Lets not forget -- an early second round grade is a good grade. I think that he has a high ceiling and could turn into one of the NFL's best thanks to his rushing ability, but I also think that there are some red flags that people are overlooking with him. I think he's a great kid and I'd be happy if he makes this report look silly in a few years time, but I'm just trying to present what I see on film in an unbiased way without emotion.
@@FallBallSportsYou are way nicer than you should be responding to these comments lol
Lol I try to be as nice as I can. Not always easy tho😅@@pinkerton1650
Drake May will be a bust in the NFL after two years. He will be a back up quarterback Daniels will compete for an MVP.
Yeah sure bud
JAYDEN DANIELS will be a NEW YORK GIANT
He'd almost certainly be an upgrade over Daniel Jones
not even close