because i'm getting people saying "oh the tiktok guy was right!" asides from the fact that there is a storm in the gulf literally every other part of that video is inaccurate also the national hurricane center had milton at a 0% chance of forming within 48 hours. it formed 36 hours later. if the experts got completely caught out by how quickly it ramped up, i promise you no one on tiktok predicted it a week ago.
@@brakefaded I live around west pacific and always look at gfs or emcwf models, typhoons here are so upredictable that if you're not a meteorologist like me it's best to just look at 3-4 days ahead since I think only around 20% of the storms will fully develop into a storm in long range forecast. I remember there are even times when models would sway back and forth between going north to Japan or West towards taiwan 5 days up to 1 day before it reach the spot where it will ultimately be certain wich path it will take
As someone who enjoys meteorology content and lives in a hurricane zone, thank you for calling this out. Every time I try to look up a simple summary of the current tropical outlook, I get slammed with videos about how the next storm is going to be armageddon. It becomes difficult to find the important information I actually need when I have to sift through garbage to find current news
the problem is capitalism. You earn more money when you talk about "the next armageddon is close!" all the time. And the people believe it because of the entertainment.
I know a lot of people seem to dunk on Ryan Hall and yeah, his clickbait thumbnails are a little sketchy but he's always been upfront about not being a trained meteorologist and does a lot of good in damaged communities with his Y'all squad.
Yeah at a glance he's a bit ridiculous, but imo he does a good job at conveying information about storm safety and preparedness, as well as his charity work.
youtube has developed a toxic culture where the only way to get attention, even for things that matter, is clickbait thumbnails. i blame youtube itself and the algorithm more than i blame any individual creators for this
@boinqity4621 So you give him a complete pass for buying into this "toxic" culture you speak of? He doesn't have to do this, but he chooses to do so, and just because he does some good doesn't mean he's a good person. Hes just out to make a quick buck like every other person on RUclips.
@@hshawn00agreed…I think his video formats are trash and that biases me against his video content, sorry not sorry but we’re not forced to engage every single creator. He doesn’t need my clicks and views.
Every single day in the newsroom meeting our meteorologists have to give a two minute disclaimer about how predictions work so our producers don't try reporting on hurricanes that may not materialize
@@curealmy ur brain chemistry is still male, no offense, so his point still stands. Unless im wrong about u being bio-male, or unless hormones effect the brain? which i rly dont think they do.
Right now we are watching NC and SC state government officials (attempt to) explain on television why border patrol are being shipped into Western NC by the hundreds and if they think they will have infrastructure to support an election. Can't make this shit up ☕
By the way, I can only think of a few ways that anyone in Western NC or Eastern TN are going to be voting. Donald Trump *-is-* going to whine about all of them.
I watch 3 weather channels. Ryan Hall Y'all, Mr.Weatherman (Brian Shields, licensed meteorologist), and max velocity. They all seem to truly just want to be helpful in spreading awareness about severe weather. And especially Ryan with his Y'all Squad which no one can deny is just incredible. Idk there's definitely a lot of bad eggs but these guys seem pretty genuine. Who knows tho it's the internet.
Yeah the examples of ryan hall y’alls thumbnails was true but he uses a lot of sources and I don’t think I’ve seen him mess up a prediction yet, he’s my main source
But during cvid it was "trust the science!" And now they're backing out of most of what they told us was true. There has to be space in science for science to be wrong sometimes, or else there is no advancement or genuine search for truth.
Glad more people are calling this out! I'm technically a research climatologist (PhD student) by trade but I teach intro weather/climate at my university and have spent a good deal of time trying to teach my students where to go for GOOD weather info. I don't think you touched on this, but another issue I've seen time after time in my research is the reliance on similar sources DURING severe weather events, not just for forecasting. At least in my area, the number of people tuning into reliable news/radio stations during severe weather has actually gone down in exchange for social media (and a reliance on WEAs). It's pretty concerning.
yeah. i think a weather livestreamer like ryan hall isnt bad if you’re interested in severe weather thats happening across the country, but for something local a local source will do better than a youtube streamer 11 times out of 10
if i had a nickel for every time ive heard "its overcast, that means itll rain in the afternoon" or "its sunny, that means there wont be storms this afternoon" i would be a rich man. also, trees have literally been seeding clouds with terpenese for millennia. these people freaking out about "gubment control da weather" have probably been rained on by clouds seeded by trees before and they didn't care then.
I'm in Florida and I was interested because Helene just came through. It's honestly wild how under-educated the public seems to be on this topic. Maybe it's just me, but I see those fearmongering posts all the time and I didn't really know which ones to trust.
@@curealmy Yeah unfortunately with posting online becoming easier AND hurricanes becoming more frequent, it's tough figuring out which sources to trust. I finished the video after leaving my initial comment though and I have to say it was very well done from start to finish. You're a great presenter and I can tell you're passionate about the subject. Can definitely say I learned a few things!
the best thing you can do is try to learn and understand at least the basica of how storms work. if you understand instability, windshear, and lift as well as how our weather prediction models actually work, you can pretty easily see through the bs
i was in the helene path and I had no idea till relatively late, I know i could do better about keeping up but damn no one around me knew!! so this video title captured my attention. then i clicked through your channel and find a shibuya-kei video… I Love You. subbed
You should keep doing meteorology related content! You’re so fun to watch! I have an interest in meteorology and I’m planning on going to school in Norman- and also happen to have an interest in anime and Japanese music. Glad I found ur channel on a whim, the algo seems to be doing her job.
Omg thank you so much for this video! I’m an amateur meteorologist but an anthropologist by training and I teach environmental studies at a small liberal arts college, and this topic has been a pet peeve of mine for a few years now! So much meteorology mis- and disinformation floating around the social media ether. It really infuriates me but I rarely have an audience who can engage this enraging topic but this video was pure catharsis for me. Plus extremely timely and needful - best of luck with your studies! Thank you!
I am not a meteorologist but I am a weather hobbyist and follow many resources, from professionals to other weather hobbyist and storm chasers. Due to this, people in my circle know that I can be relied on for weather info. However, they also know I follow a specific guideline and do more of nowcasting than forecasting for my local area. The guideline I use are as followed: 7+ Days: Keep in mind but don't take it seriously 5-7 days: Start paying attention but know that it will change 3-5 days: Pay closer attention but it could still change 1-3 days: Forecast is likely to happen but changes could still occur 0-1 day: Changes could potentially still occur... but it will be very minor
Yeah I’m definitely subscribing. My daughter is a meteorologist, she’s employed by NWS Charleston, Sc and she’s involved with issuing weather alerts for tornadoes, thunderstorms etc. And you’re right, every single NWS bureau has their own social media platform and I highly recommend everyone to use it. NHC has a RUclips account as well and they update twice daily if a tropical cyclone is threatening. Good job 👍🏾
9:10 yeah i think ryan hall yall has pretty bad tumbnail, but in his videos he is not the type of guys to over dramatize storm. And at 13:15 OMG i hate these type of people saying " they are creating these Hurricane" or " Cloud summoning " or " climate change fault !! " ( Yes climate change has something to do with stronger Hurricane, just its not because we have climate change it mean every Hurricane has formed because of that ), like i hate that cause they are scaring people with mostly crap
GFS and ICON are always the most entertaining model runs to watch. I remember ICON was tryna predict a tropical storm in the middle of the Sahel in early September
Wait another trans meteorology student lets fucking go I give subscriber. Also yeah anytime someone starts talking about a hurricane that shows up that late in the whenever GFS model that will surely occur, my blood pressure goes up. At least use those hurricane specific models that are on that very website he is using.
There’s a reason my program makes us take a class our first semester that is all about messaging in weather and the kind of people you will run into in your career and how science will not convince them of anything, etc… yea.
man i literally spend a minute talking about how theres a 50% chance of the storm forming in the gulf but models have it in many different directions the 50% hit and the direction ended up being central florida
oh em gee.. i clicked on this video because internet misinformation is my favorite video essay topic to watch right now, but exploring your channel is going to be exciting because you post about all the music i like!!!!
Dude! U are preaching so well right now as a few days after Helene hit the East Coast meterologists were saying another one might pop up sooner then expected and yeh I used the GFS Model too and this exact same random hurricane appeared out of nowhere and it scared me thinking my homestate of TN was gonna get hammered with rain again. I went to the model again the next day and ran it and guess what that storm didnt appear again. The GFS needs some major funding big time as its known for making invisible and nameless hurricanes appear. NOAA needs to get its act together with that badly inaccurate model.
Everything ive seen being reported about that area in the gulf is "Don't think its going to be a hurricane, maybe a tropical storm, maybe nothing, just keep an eye on it." but honestly worst thing is people being prepared for a storm that doesn't happen doesn't seem like a bad thing?
Thanks for the rec of Convective Chronicles. You have a really compelling way of speaking and if you were ever to do weather retrospectives (ex. Carly Anna Wx) I would definitely be interested. I hope your semester is easy and you get to learn something really fucking cool!
The internet "experts" have been driving me nuts with their use of meteorology tools they have no idea on how to use. They use those 96+ hour GFC/CMC model runs not as research tools but as absolute predictions for maximum engagement. It happens every single time a devastating storm hits the US. Tropical Tidbits is an amazing tool as long as you stay within 0-4 day prediction window
As someone who works in aviation we have the exact same problem between passengers watching a speed tape application saying “they’re duct taping the plane together.” To student pilots with 8 hours trying to explain why Embry riddles is worth the money (it’s not… part 61 for life 🤠🤘🏻). The majority of these people know nothing about what they’re talking about but they think they do. It is infuriating, especially when the masses follow them and take their words as facts. Really opens your eyes on how easy it is to spread misinformation. Thankfully, the aviation industry is big enough that we have enough nerds to hold them at bay in comment sections.
@@randomuser5443 medicals are another topic that I could bich about that’s wrong with our industry. I didn’t know a school could pull one!?!? That’s insane.
thank youuuu!!! i love meteorology (special interest since age 5 bc autism) and also as a trans person in the weather scene (debating between meteorology or medicine, going back to school soon) i deeply appreciate you calling out conservatives in the scene. i also loved the suggestion of convective chronicles. i would say for meteorological histor Carly Anna Wx is also a good pick
lot of em on tv dont bc they work for big conglomerate that own a bunch of local news stations. those conglomerates all either lean right politically or are scared of “controversy”
@@curealmy even on social media where they have editorial control. They mention record heat / weather events but just leave that part out. It’s very frustrating.
I don’t honestly know if it’s truly meteorological to make that connection or to single out any one weather event as a demonstration of a climactic dynamic. It’s way more complicated to make that claim *scientifically* with data within the field of meteorology proper, even if we all have an intuitive sense that narrative holds true. Making claims about climate change is the purview of climatologists and other climate scientists, atmospheric chemists, geologists, etc. The Anthropocene is a *geologic* description, as much as meteorology is obviously caught up in these dynamics, it’s not the field that can take the lead on articulating climate signals
@@jimmypad5501 they talk about record warm temperatures and ocean temperatures being record warm and never tie it into climate change. It feels disingenuous saying this and not mentioning climate change ever.
I’m glad you shouted out Trey (Convective Chronicles) because I have learned so much from him! I appreciate this video and yeah, fear-mongering and hyping things up has no place in the weather field. Unless it’s absolutely scientifically warranted. High risk days where violent long-track tornadoes are possible, yes, let the people know. Possible tropical development where the National Hurricane Center gives a 50% development 7-10 days out… nah. Especially after a major hurricane just came through, that’s distasteful. Thanks!
I grew up in state college (where the accuweather was founded/headquartered) and we had a saying that “accuweather puts the weather in accuweather” also the founder is kinda hated for buying up a bunch of historical housing and flipping it as rentals to college kids so learning that accuweather is shit from a forecasting/communications perspective is fun and vindicating lmao
This was amazing! Thank you so much. I would watch your daily forcast any day...everyday! Please do more weather videos!! i'm currently a metrology student with a prior Earth science degree.
@@curealmy You totally should!!! If you do...maybe a differently branded channel b/c the crossover from weather to j-pop is probably not huge.l. ANyway, thanks again for your video!!
I'm lucky to live in Houston where we have Space City Weather, the "No Hype" weather blog run by Eric Berger and Matt Lanza. They break everything down so it's easy to understand, are honest when they aren't sure what a system will do, and will always stress the point that things can change. We relied heavily on them for Hurricane Harvey in 2017 because all the local news stations were like omg we're all gonna die... after they had completely botched the forecast in the first place. Matt also runs a general Atlantic hurricane blog called The Eyewall. Also fun is that they both have regular day jobs in addition to this.
I really liked this video! I actually was wanting to make a video that's like this showing the absolute falsehood but you drove it home! This video needs to be further out there.
I'm right with you. It drives me crazy when I see people sharing posts of model outputs that are 10+ days out. That's why i do not share that stuff when I post my forecasts on Facebook, because hypetraining weather events does not help anyone.
I mean I have just started my weather yt channel and yes I am very much an amateur meteorologist and a handful of my stuff is relying on only 1 or 2 models but I always give a disclaimer to viewers and say to seek real professional info before taking it seriously. This video helped me a lot I will definitely do a bit more personal forecasting before I post videos!
I live near Atlanta, and I try to be weather-informed, as its interesting to me. I was on some of the live streams from news agencies, mainly trying to warn people. The live chat (why did they have this enables???) was filled with trolls, mainly saying how nothing will happen, and the hurricane is a made up scam for insurance companies. It made me so upset, even though it missed Atl, it still hit the eastern Appalachians like a TRUCK
ARIC ALMIROLA SHIRT RAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH Also, as an east Tennessean, thank you. I've kept seeing the second hurricane clickbait. If another hurricane hits this area this soon. We'll simply just not exist anymore
That point you made about the GFS is half true. It is certainly unrealistic the further out in the run you go. I will also say that you can know when a run is unlikely to happen dependent on the very first frame of the run. Initialization is key, and if it is off by a pretty big margin, that's when you will get these 1-off runs that people will nitpick and fearmonger about (which damn sucks). It's also important to note that when the hurricane is present, that's when the GFS pretty much becomes irrelevant due to its low resolution and being unable to pick out the key elements of a hurricane (which is why larger scale models like the ECMWF and GFS fall behind like they did with Milton). Hence why RSMC's like the NHC will become more reliant on our hurricane models (HWRF, HAFS variants, HMON) to make forecasts for a present storm (Note: These models are more reliable with larger sets of recon data). I feel people need to reinterpret the GFS model and really any large scale model as an indication of potential track or for tropical cyclone formation because it certainly can do well in those factors, just not intensity (Given the TC specific context). And also, THANK YOU for brining this entire video up because i could not stand seeing the random tik toks about "hurricane nadine" or simply put "every little swirl will be aimed at Florida". Should've brought up the Daily Mail in this too because they do it probably the worst given their larger audience.
If someone is using a drone to monetize the content they create with said drone, they can get in trouble with the FAA if they don't have their UAV license. I wonder what would happen if he was reported.
it did get very cold for summer here in southern WI during that time (mostly during the night, very low lows), and you could totally smell that arctic air up above lol
what gets me about max velocity is when his thumbnails imply all these places are affected by something but you go to video and it's about a very specific place and unrelated to most places in red. At least he isn't lying in the actual video
Great job, I agree with your point except my local meteorologist in texoma regularly says low chance to no real chance of tornadoes every time we get them. My house was hit on such a night. Glad I didn’t listen to him and followed advice of credible knowledgeable weather experts on RUclips that said be very alert and watch out! We have very poor radar coverage across a lot of rural Texas and people also need to be warned about this repeatedly! Thx
As someone who is not a meteorologist, but act as the weather "expert" for the company I work for, these people drive me mad. And it goes both ways. We are based out of Florida, so I stay on top of the tropics, and I have to fight both, "it will be nothing" and "and its the end of the world". I am constantly saying "this is some of what we are looking at, prep in case, but we will know more 72-24 hours out" -A humble Weather nerd whose closest to a degree is their skywarn cert.
What a great video! 🎉 I really enjoyed your take on weather forecasting, totally rational, well put, and very, very articulate! 👍🏽 You belong on TV!! 😃 PS: here in the UK, we have the official Met Office, and forecasting weather here is ... challenging. The old joke about "4 seasons in one day" is funny, cuz it's true! 😂
I barely use The Weather Channel to get up to date forecasts anymore, i'd use solely NWS predictions for a particular day. I don't rely on people who aren't qualified for it. And if some bad weather is in the forecast, i'd check with the NWS Storm Prediction Center and other NWS predictions, and so far that hasn't failed me with my expectations for the day. And i myself am not qualified for stuff in meteorology, in fact I am in a completely different field. You had finally addressed what i'd see on Twitter and RUclips on an almost daily basis. And it's still sort of annoying that people are still believing this. But even i, myself know that weather models, beyond a week out are hilariously inaccurate and know not to trust them. Especially government models. I'd go out 24 or 48 hours maximum for weather and that's about it, as I said. I am not qualified in this field at all, but do have an innate interest in it. Also, the whole "oh no, HAARP is controlling our weather and doing government mind control, they're controlling our clouds and making hurricanes" really needs to come to an end, but let bigons be bigons i suppose. Edit: Kinda cool how HAARP has an open house occasionally, I wonder why those conspiracy theorists don't take advantage of it? :)
Well said! But as for the thumbnails you showed that person does an amazing job! And makes millions for damage relief! You should look at what he does OK.
Im living on the other side of the world, and this issue about social media tainted by dubious sources is starting to irritate me. Free weather apps/sites like Windy is an easy source for a rando to claim knowledge in meteorology, it's actually scary how many lives it can claim.
Ough, the line 'Just look at this one model that has a Big Thing on it!' Really just sums this all up doesn't it? Also, it will never not be funny (and really sad) to me to see people freaking out about The Weather Controlling Domes when they are absolutely just radar detection for missiles. We had em in Fylingdales (in the UK), round the 60s through to the 90s, and the only hurricane I could find from that time period just barely made landfall. Whoever was running those weather domes did a shit job!
Ironically about AccuWeather, I find the radar is fairly accurate for my area. Most other sources (including local) seem to always downgrade everything to being spotty. Also, I really hate those conspiracy people. Like, just cause you haven't seen flooding like here ever doesn't mean it's unnatural. They did the same kind of crap with the Mayfield tornado a couple years ago, saying there was too much lightning for it to be natural among other stupid things. They even literally said they CREATED the tornado somehow and controlled it, like that's impossible if you have a brain. It's one thing to create one, but control it? No way.
Would you be able to speak on how they measure hurricanes in the field while out at sea? I've seen it said that they overestimate the category because they use planes and satellites to measure things like hurricane wind speed saying they should have anemometers directly inside the hurricane in the field, not knowing that weather buoys exist? This is tangentially related since your video is about models and not field measurements.
brother, the algorithm has deemed you the chosen one, i have come to bear witness to the next Dr. Levi Cowan, and youre a nascar fan too, hell yeah, Almirola just won xfinity too!
For the love of God, don't call the GFS a "bad hurricane model." Deterministic model runs 1+ week out are not useful tools for determining TC genesis, regardless of whether it's the ECMWF, the CMC, UKMET, or whatever other global model. It's more useful to look at medium range ensemble forecasts for something like this. The GFS tends to be more aggressive at developing TCs, but the ECMWF tends to underestimate TC genesis. Looking at ensemble runs for both the ECMWF and the GFS is more preferable in these scenarios until we get to very short range forecasts.
The best meterologist on YT is Brian Shields, known by his channel as Mr. Weatherman. He gives only information, tells people he looks at the environment, what else is happening with other weather fronts, wind sheer, ocean temps, etc. I look at the info from NHC and him. I tell people not to panic.
Love it. I try telling this to people as well and I am just some shill or whatever. Phew. People believe in more misinformation than reality. It’s kinda scary man
I don’t think you could say the GFS is TOTALLY HORRIBLE at hurricanes. The GFS is one model, it’s actually been a lot better the last couple of years. We have to look at the ensembles, all the models, everything taken into consideration.
Greetings from germany. I also think, the NWS is a good thing - we have the DWD here which translates to "german weather service". Important information and severe weather warnings shouldn´t come from a private company.
And ty so mu ch i have so much weather anxiety lowkey but knowing where to go for factual info about weather is so clutch. I live in WI and my dad is in MS and knowing who to ACTUALLY check to find out if hes about to be drowned under a hurricane is dope info. Thank you
How do people get into weather reporting as a hobby (genuine question) , I thought it was something journalists did when they didn't get to to be a tv anchor
ive been into weather since i was a kid. i got into doing TV stuff bc i think im decent on camera, im a meteorology major and doing broadcast journalism stuff on the side
Kinda related… if you live in the US, you can volunteer to be a spotter for the NWS. Most spotters already have jobs that take them outside with the right equipment (radio broadcasters for example), but most anyone can be a spotter as long as you take a free class offered in most counties. The NWS relies on spotters to report conditions on the ground so they can deliver more accurate and specific information and predictions.
This is pretty crazy because they treat weathermodels like they're "forecasters" and not forecasting tools. The GFS is actually a pretty good model... if you know how to use it. I remember it showed Category 5's in the month of May back in 2022; tbh the GFS was terrible that year. The model is a good "look out for what's possible" model as opposed to a "this is going to happen" model. And this sucks because many of the population isn't weather educated enough to realize these things, so they end up believing it. And I don't see it getting better anytime soon.
It's funny, I and a few others commented negatively on DW's channel concerning his clickbaity thumbnails, and the next day his video was titled, "The Storm From Hell." (I think we rubbed him the wrong way, lol.) Also, as a novice weather enthusiast, I don't understand why the GFS is so fickle sometimes - I thought they'd upgraded it.
I’m a conservative and I watch these models constantly all summer. I saw the very run that guy was hyping and instantly labeled it “fever dream” You have to watch the trends and the changes from run to run, and it’s only when something consistently happens that it should be taken seriously.
I've learned to just use the NOAA/NHC site for monitoring the gulf. Otherwise I just wake up and wait to see what the weather is. If I need to see real time radar I use weatherbug.
because i'm getting people saying "oh the tiktok guy was right!" asides from the fact that there is a storm in the gulf literally every other part of that video is inaccurate
also the national hurricane center had milton at a 0% chance of forming within 48 hours. it formed 36 hours later. if the experts got completely caught out by how quickly it ramped up, i promise you no one on tiktok predicted it a week ago.
You gotta feel a little silly at this point for being so condensing and calling his work bad metrology. When he was nearly spot on 😅
no its still bad meteorology. that tiktok is wrong on almost every front and the bits it did get right are mostly by dumb luck lol
@@curealmy that’s fair
@@brakefaded I live around west pacific and always look at gfs or emcwf models, typhoons here are so upredictable that if you're not a meteorologist like me it's best to just look at 3-4 days ahead since I think only around 20% of the storms will fully develop into a storm in long range forecast. I remember there are even times when models would sway back and forth between going north to Japan or West towards taiwan 5 days up to 1 day before it reach the spot where it will ultimately be certain wich path it will take
@@curealmyhe was right 💯 and seems your mad about it
As someone who enjoys meteorology content and lives in a hurricane zone, thank you for calling this out. Every time I try to look up a simple summary of the current tropical outlook, I get slammed with videos about how the next storm is going to be armageddon. It becomes difficult to find the important information I actually need when I have to sift through garbage to find current news
the problem is capitalism. You earn more money when you talk about "the next armageddon is close!" all the time. And the people believe it because of the entertainment.
I know a lot of people seem to dunk on Ryan Hall and yeah, his clickbait thumbnails are a little sketchy but he's always been upfront about not being a trained meteorologist and does a lot of good in damaged communities with his Y'all squad.
Yeah at a glance he's a bit ridiculous, but imo he does a good job at conveying information about storm safety and preparedness, as well as his charity work.
youtube has developed a toxic culture where the only way to get attention, even for things that matter, is clickbait thumbnails. i blame youtube itself and the algorithm more than i blame any individual creators for this
@@boinqity4621 Yeah, but he has 2 million subs. He doesn't need to dive into the algorithm anymore for clicks.
@boinqity4621 So you give him a complete pass for buying into this "toxic" culture you speak of? He doesn't have to do this, but he chooses to do so, and just because he does some good doesn't mean he's a good person. Hes just out to make a quick buck like every other person on RUclips.
@@hshawn00agreed…I think his video formats are trash and that biases me against his video content, sorry not sorry but we’re not forced to engage every single creator. He doesn’t need my clicks and views.
Every single day in the newsroom meeting our meteorologists have to give a two minute disclaimer about how predictions work so our producers don't try reporting on hurricanes that may not materialize
so glad the news side of my college newsroom keeps up with the weather
What's a good model for tracking hurricanes? is ICON a bad model?@@curealmy
Nvm I just looked at the video more. But is ICON a good hurricane model?@@curealmy
women infodumping about things I have thought of at most once in my entire life is my favorite genre fr
This is a guy
@scepter1 i have bad news for you
@@Scepter1 𝔑𝔦𝔠𝔢 𝔄𝔯𝔤𝔲𝔪𝔢𝔫𝔱; 𝔘𝔫𝔣𝔬𝔯𝔱𝔲𝔫𝔞𝔱𝔢𝔩𝔶, ℑ`𝔪 ℑ𝔫 𝔜𝔬𝔲𝔯 𝔚𝔞𝔩𝔩𝔰. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱. ℜ𝔢𝔭𝔢𝔫𝔱.
@@curealmy ur brain chemistry is still male, no offense, so his point still stands. Unless im wrong about u being bio-male, or unless hormones effect the brain? which i rly dont think they do.
@@Scepter1 The trans fairy got her ass my guy
holy shit, CLOUDS! it must be the gubment modulating our spheres
da gubuhment IS CONTROLLING THE WEATHA.
spheres don't exist! cia!!
@@kaleb7636🤣👍🏾
Right now we are watching NC and SC state government officials (attempt to) explain on television why border patrol are being shipped into Western NC by the hundreds and if they think they will have infrastructure to support an election. Can't make this shit up ☕
By the way, I can only think of a few ways that anyone in Western NC or Eastern TN are going to be voting. Donald Trump *-is-* going to whine about all of them.
I watch 3 weather channels. Ryan Hall Y'all, Mr.Weatherman (Brian Shields, licensed meteorologist), and max velocity. They all seem to truly just want to be helpful in spreading awareness about severe weather. And especially Ryan with his Y'all Squad which no one can deny is just incredible. Idk there's definitely a lot of bad eggs but these guys seem pretty genuine. Who knows tho it's the internet.
Yeah the examples of ryan hall y’alls thumbnails was true but he uses a lot of sources and I don’t think I’ve seen him mess up a prediction yet, he’s my main source
mr. weatherman is my main source, mainly due to him being a licensed meteorologist
"People don't wanna trust science these days" is like the modern version of when people used to believe in witches
or when they believed our planet is disc. Ouch this seems still modern in the US.
Yep exactly…. Many people are extremely ignorant reliant on superstition and mythology to find their way around the world…
@@PM-vv3ucflat earth is active dismissal of facts, people don’t want to trust science because covid made scientists look like a bunch of greedy rats
But during cvid it was "trust the science!" And now they're backing out of most of what they told us was true. There has to be space in science for science to be wrong sometimes, or else there is no advancement or genuine search for truth.
I liked the part where you said that real estate agents have college degrees. That's exactly what they want you to think.
LOL
🤣🤣🤣
3:41 hurricane Francine went into Louisiana at a cat 2
Glad more people are calling this out! I'm technically a research climatologist (PhD student) by trade but I teach intro weather/climate at my university and have spent a good deal of time trying to teach my students where to go for GOOD weather info. I don't think you touched on this, but another issue I've seen time after time in my research is the reliance on similar sources DURING severe weather events, not just for forecasting. At least in my area, the number of people tuning into reliable news/radio stations during severe weather has actually gone down in exchange for social media (and a reliance on WEAs). It's pretty concerning.
yeah. i think a weather livestreamer like ryan hall isnt bad if you’re interested in severe weather thats happening across the country, but for something local a local source will do better than a youtube streamer 11 times out of 10
if i had a nickel for every time ive heard "its overcast, that means itll rain in the afternoon" or "its sunny, that means there wont be storms this afternoon" i would be a rich man. also, trees have literally been seeding clouds with terpenese for millennia. these people freaking out about "gubment control da weather" have probably been rained on by clouds seeded by trees before and they didn't care then.
I'm in Florida and I was interested because Helene just came through. It's honestly wild how under-educated the public seems to be on this topic. Maybe it's just me, but I see those fearmongering posts all the time and I didn't really know which ones to trust.
yeah its a big problem, especially with social media allowing p much everyone with a camera to pretend to be an expert
@@curealmy Yeah unfortunately with posting online becoming easier AND hurricanes becoming more frequent, it's tough figuring out which sources to trust. I finished the video after leaving my initial comment though and I have to say it was very well done from start to finish. You're a great presenter and I can tell you're passionate about the subject. Can definitely say I learned a few things!
thank you!!!!!
I don’t believe a single word you said.
the best thing you can do is try to learn and understand at least the basica of how storms work. if you understand instability, windshear, and lift as well as how our weather prediction models actually work, you can pretty easily see through the bs
Milton: am I a joke to you?
every video i get recommended on YT is always super high quality but either has 7 million views or 700
i was in the helene path and I had no idea till relatively late, I know i could do better about keeping up but damn no one around me knew!! so this video title captured my attention. then i clicked through your channel and find a shibuya-kei video… I Love You. subbed
You should keep doing meteorology related content! You’re so fun to watch! I have an interest in meteorology and I’m planning on going to school in Norman- and also happen to have an interest in anime and Japanese music. Glad I found ur channel on a whim, the algo seems to be doing her job.
Omg thank you so much for this video! I’m an amateur meteorologist but an anthropologist by training and I teach environmental studies at a small liberal arts college, and this topic has been a pet peeve of mine for a few years now! So much meteorology mis- and disinformation floating around the social media ether. It really infuriates me but I rarely have an audience who can engage this enraging topic but this video was pure catharsis for me. Plus extremely timely and needful - best of luck with your studies! Thank you!
I am not a meteorologist but I am a weather hobbyist and follow many resources, from professionals to other weather hobbyist and storm chasers. Due to this, people in my circle know that I can be relied on for weather info. However, they also know I follow a specific guideline and do more of nowcasting than forecasting for my local area.
The guideline I use are as followed:
7+ Days: Keep in mind but don't take it seriously
5-7 days: Start paying attention but know that it will change
3-5 days: Pay closer attention but it could still change
1-3 days: Forecast is likely to happen but changes could still occur
0-1 day: Changes could potentially still occur... but it will be very minor
Yeah I’m definitely subscribing. My daughter is a meteorologist, she’s employed by NWS Charleston, Sc and she’s involved with issuing weather alerts for tornadoes, thunderstorms etc. And you’re right, every single NWS bureau has their own social media platform and I highly recommend everyone to use it. NHC has a RUclips account as well and they update twice daily if a tropical cyclone is threatening. Good job 👍🏾
9:10 yeah i think ryan hall yall has pretty bad tumbnail, but in his videos he is not the type of guys to over dramatize storm. And at 13:15 OMG i hate these type of people saying " they are creating these Hurricane" or " Cloud summoning " or " climate change fault !! " ( Yes climate change has something to do with stronger Hurricane, just its not because we have climate change it mean every Hurricane has formed because of that ), like i hate that cause they are scaring people with mostly crap
Just discovered your channel. You're the Miniminuteman of Meteorology. Love it. Keep it going!
GFS and ICON are always the most entertaining model runs to watch. I remember ICON was tryna predict a tropical storm in the middle of the Sahel in early September
Wait another trans meteorology student lets fucking go I give subscriber. Also yeah anytime someone starts talking about a hurricane that shows up that late in the whenever GFS model that will surely occur, my blood pressure goes up. At least use those hurricane specific models that are on that very website he is using.
There’s a reason my program makes us take a class our first semester that is all about messaging in weather and the kind of people you will run into in your career and how science will not convince them of anything, etc… yea.
i'd love to see you do more weather videos if you feel like it! i really liked your take on things
Just found your channel thru this vid! While I've never listened to Japanese music, I would love more content like this! You're very pretty btw :))
As an Australian aspiring meteorologist i went on a tornado tour last year and Trey from convective chronicles was the guide :D it was incredible!!
From what I've seen today from meteorologists and several models, this video is looking like it's not gonna age very well...
man i literally spend a minute talking about how theres a 50% chance of the storm forming in the gulf but models have it in many different directions
the 50% hit and the direction ended up being central florida
@@curealmy nah, it's a great video, I learned a lot, but that timing is horrendous lmao
it had a 30% chance yesterday and jumped up to likely cat 3 today, insane how quickly it changed
From a simulation with a lot of false positives, as you stated, you end up focusing on one instance that isn't looking false, is all I'm saying
@@jiahturner i mean the strength location and timing is all completely different to what the GFS was showing so 🤷my point stands
oh em gee.. i clicked on this video because internet misinformation is my favorite video essay topic to watch right now, but exploring your channel is going to be exciting because you post about all the music i like!!!!
Dude! U are preaching so well right now as a few days after Helene hit the East Coast meterologists were saying another one might pop up sooner then expected and yeh I used the GFS Model too and this exact same random hurricane appeared out of nowhere and it scared me thinking my homestate of TN was gonna get hammered with rain again. I went to the model again the next day and ran it and guess what that storm didnt appear again.
The GFS needs some major funding big time as its known for making invisible and nameless hurricanes appear. NOAA needs to get its act together with that badly inaccurate model.
Everything ive seen being reported about that area in the gulf is "Don't think its going to be a hurricane, maybe a tropical storm, maybe nothing, just keep an eye on it." but honestly worst thing is people being prepared for a storm that doesn't happen doesn't seem like a bad thing?
Thanks for the rec of Convective Chronicles. You have a really compelling way of speaking and if you were ever to do weather retrospectives (ex. Carly Anna Wx) I would definitely be interested. I hope your semester is easy and you get to learn something really fucking cool!
this was the most insane 20 minutes of my life
finally someone calls out the "weather influencers" thank you
Didn’t know there’s weather influencers
There’s one for everything lmfao
The internet "experts" have been driving me nuts with their use of meteorology tools they have no idea on how to use. They use those 96+ hour GFC/CMC model runs not as research tools but as absolute predictions for maximum engagement. It happens every single time a devastating storm hits the US. Tropical Tidbits is an amazing tool as long as you stay within 0-4 day prediction window
im not super into the stuff you usually post about but this video was very good!! you are funny and clear and nice to listen to :)
Really love your vids and your vibe wont lie
to everyone watching this video now, just know that this guy doesnt know what he's talking about.
everything in this video is correct 👍
As someone who works in aviation we have the exact same problem between passengers watching a speed tape application saying “they’re duct taping the plane together.” To student pilots with 8 hours trying to explain why Embry riddles is worth the money (it’s not… part 61 for life 🤠🤘🏻). The majority of these people know nothing about what they’re talking about but they think they do. It is infuriating, especially when the masses follow them and take their words as facts. Really opens your eyes on how easy it is to spread misinformation. Thankfully, the aviation industry is big enough that we have enough nerds to hold them at bay in comment sections.
They shouldn’t because it’s basically HAARP for liberals
I got my medical revoked by riddle.
Both AMEs are fine with my autism, school wasnt
@@randomuser5443 medicals are another topic that I could bich about that’s wrong with our industry. I didn’t know a school could pull one!?!? That’s insane.
thank youuuu!!! i love meteorology (special interest since age 5 bc autism) and also as a trans person in the weather scene (debating between meteorology or medicine, going back to school soon) i deeply appreciate you calling out conservatives in the scene. i also loved the suggestion of convective chronicles. i would say for meteorological histor Carly Anna Wx is also a good pick
My least favorite thing is that a lot of meteorologists just never talk about / mention climate change.
lot of em on tv dont bc they work for big conglomerate that own a bunch of local news stations. those conglomerates all either lean right politically or are scared of “controversy”
@@curealmy even on social media where they have editorial control. They mention record heat / weather events but just leave that part out. It’s very frustrating.
@@reidr7288I’m glad I’m not alone in having this gripe with a lot of RUclips weather channels
I don’t honestly know if it’s truly meteorological to make that connection or to single out any one weather event as a demonstration of a climactic dynamic. It’s way more complicated to make that claim *scientifically* with data within the field of meteorology proper, even if we all have an intuitive sense that narrative holds true.
Making claims about climate change is the purview of climatologists and other climate scientists, atmospheric chemists, geologists, etc. The Anthropocene is a *geologic* description, as much as meteorology is obviously caught up in these dynamics, it’s not the field that can take the lead on articulating climate signals
@@jimmypad5501 they talk about record warm temperatures and ocean temperatures being record warm and never tie it into climate change. It feels disingenuous saying this and not mentioning climate change ever.
I’m glad you shouted out Trey (Convective Chronicles) because I have learned so much from him! I appreciate this video and yeah, fear-mongering and hyping things up has no place in the weather field. Unless it’s absolutely scientifically warranted. High risk days where violent long-track tornadoes are possible, yes, let the people know. Possible tropical development where the National Hurricane Center gives a 50% development 7-10 days out… nah. Especially after a major hurricane just came through, that’s distasteful. Thanks!
I grew up in state college (where the accuweather was founded/headquartered) and we had a saying that “accuweather puts the weather in accuweather” also the founder is kinda hated for buying up a bunch of historical housing and flipping it as rentals to college kids so learning that accuweather is shit from a forecasting/communications perspective is fun and vindicating lmao
fearmonjering
Boost ☝🏼
Fear-Mahjong-ering: fear of falling mahjong tiles.
i do play mahjong maybe thats where i got it from LOL
This was amazing! Thank you so much. I would watch your daily forcast any day...everyday! Please do more weather videos!! i'm currently a metrology student with a prior Earth science degree.
i might try doing like tv style forecast videos for big stuff
@@curealmy You totally should!!! If you do...maybe a differently branded channel b/c the crossover from weather to j-pop is probably not huge.l. ANyway, thanks again for your video!!
I'm lucky to live in Houston where we have Space City Weather, the "No Hype" weather blog run by Eric Berger and Matt Lanza. They break everything down so it's easy to understand, are honest when they aren't sure what a system will do, and will always stress the point that things can change. We relied heavily on them for Hurricane Harvey in 2017 because all the local news stations were like omg we're all gonna die... after they had completely botched the forecast in the first place. Matt also runs a general Atlantic hurricane blog called The Eyewall. Also fun is that they both have regular day jobs in addition to this.
thank you for providing captions ❤️
i always do ❤️
I really liked this video! I actually was wanting to make a video that's like this showing the absolute falsehood but you drove it home! This video needs to be further out there.
I'm right with you. It drives me crazy when I see people sharing posts of model outputs that are 10+ days out. That's why i do not share that stuff when I post my forecasts on Facebook, because hypetraining weather events does not help anyone.
Aww man i hate when harp spawns a 480 mph altrostatus altocumulus on my doorstep
I mean I have just started my weather yt channel and yes I am very much an amateur meteorologist and
a handful of my stuff is relying on only 1 or 2 models but I always give a disclaimer to viewers and say to seek real professional info before taking it seriously.
This video helped me a lot I will definitely do a bit more personal forecasting before I post videos!
I need to share this with a friend of mine :D
Called out a guy yesterday on threads for inducing panic
Convective Chronicles mentioned 🎉(Max velocity is also pretty good. He's a meteorology major as well.)
The last weathergate was fought between lobbyists and everyone on the global citation index. Now it's fought on RUclips.
You came up in my feed. I'm betting this video will be popular. Nice to meet you, my friend.
I live near Atlanta, and I try to be weather-informed, as its interesting to me. I was on some of the live streams from news agencies, mainly trying to warn people. The live chat (why did they have this enables???) was filled with trolls, mainly saying how nothing will happen, and the hurricane is a made up scam for insurance companies. It made me so upset, even though it missed Atl, it still hit the eastern Appalachians like a TRUCK
ARIC ALMIROLA SHIRT
RAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH
Also, as an east Tennessean, thank you. I've kept seeing the second hurricane clickbait. If another hurricane hits this area this soon. We'll simply just not exist anymore
national hurricane center lowered the chances from 50% to 40% since i made this video if that helps
That point you made about the GFS is half true. It is certainly unrealistic the further out in the run you go. I will also say that you can know when a run is unlikely to happen dependent on the very first frame of the run. Initialization is key, and if it is off by a pretty big margin, that's when you will get these 1-off runs that people will nitpick and fearmonger about (which damn sucks). It's also important to note that when the hurricane is present, that's when the GFS pretty much becomes irrelevant due to its low resolution and being unable to pick out the key elements of a hurricane (which is why larger scale models like the ECMWF and GFS fall behind like they did with Milton). Hence why RSMC's like the NHC will become more reliant on our hurricane models (HWRF, HAFS variants, HMON) to make forecasts for a present storm (Note: These models are more reliable with larger sets of recon data). I feel people need to reinterpret the GFS model and really any large scale model as an indication of potential track or for tropical cyclone formation because it certainly can do well in those factors, just not intensity (Given the TC specific context). And also, THANK YOU for brining this entire video up because i could not stand seeing the random tik toks about "hurricane nadine" or simply put "every little swirl will be aimed at Florida". Should've brought up the Daily Mail in this too because they do it probably the worst given their larger audience.
When you glance at a map and say "it might or maybe not" it's basically just fortune telling lol
Me and my homies trapping the souls of the innocent in the High-frequency Active Auroral Research Program site in Alaska on a Tuesday night
@@Paradox_Incognito if you go to the google maps reviews for HAARP it is a treat
@@curealmy Oh dear god
Absolutely doing that later
If someone is using a drone to monetize the content they create with said drone, they can get in trouble with the FAA if they don't have their UAV license. I wonder what would happen if he was reported.
it did get very cold for summer here in southern WI during that time (mostly during the night, very low lows), and you could totally smell that arctic air up above lol
I mean, yeah clickbait is annoying, but also you kinda have to do it or else you see a measurable drop in audience reach
what gets me about max velocity is when his thumbnails imply all these places are affected by something but you go to video and it's about a very specific place and unrelated to most places in red. At least he isn't lying in the actual video
Great job, I agree with your point except my local meteorologist in texoma regularly says low chance to no real chance of tornadoes every time we get them. My house was hit on such a night. Glad I didn’t listen to him and followed advice of credible knowledgeable weather experts on RUclips that said be very alert and watch out! We have very poor radar coverage across a lot of rural Texas and people also need to be warned about this repeatedly! Thx
As someone who is not a meteorologist, but act as the weather "expert" for the company I work for, these people drive me mad. And it goes both ways. We are based out of Florida, so I stay on top of the tropics, and I have to fight both, "it will be nothing" and "and its the end of the world". I am constantly saying "this is some of what we are looking at, prep in case, but we will know more 72-24 hours out"
-A humble Weather nerd whose closest to a degree is their skywarn cert.
What a great video! 🎉
I really enjoyed your take on weather forecasting, totally rational, well put, and very, very articulate! 👍🏽
You belong on TV!! 😃
PS: here in the UK, we have the official Met Office, and forecasting weather here is ... challenging. The old joke about "4 seasons in one day" is funny, cuz it's true! 😂
thank you!!
I'm taking meteorology classes for my aircraft dispatchers cert. I noticed a ton of fear mongering for no reason this season.
I barely use The Weather Channel to get up to date forecasts anymore, i'd use solely NWS predictions for a particular day. I don't rely on people who aren't qualified for it. And if some bad weather is in the forecast, i'd check with the NWS Storm Prediction Center and other NWS predictions, and so far that hasn't failed me with my expectations for the day.
And i myself am not qualified for stuff in meteorology, in fact I am in a completely different field. You had finally addressed what i'd see on Twitter and RUclips on an almost daily basis. And it's still sort of annoying that people are still believing this. But even i, myself know that weather models, beyond a week out are hilariously inaccurate and know not to trust them. Especially government models.
I'd go out 24 or 48 hours maximum for weather and that's about it, as I said. I am not qualified in this field at all, but do have an innate interest in it. Also, the whole "oh no, HAARP is controlling our weather and doing government mind control, they're controlling our clouds and making hurricanes" really needs to come to an end, but let bigons be bigons i suppose.
Edit: Kinda cool how HAARP has an open house occasionally, I wonder why those conspiracy theorists don't take advantage of it? :)
1:26 that thing is fxking stalling
I am a very amateur weather enthusiast (no college degree, but I do look at the SPC meso page sometimes), and I feel your pain
Well said! But as for the thumbnails you showed that person does an amazing job! And makes millions for damage relief!
You should look at what he does OK.
u should review popular weather films (Twisters, SUPERCELL, etc. )
Idk this storm has shown that sometimes that’s all the info you can get
Im living on the other side of the world, and this issue about social media tainted by dubious sources is starting to irritate me. Free weather apps/sites like Windy is an easy source for a rando to claim knowledge in meteorology, it's actually scary how many lives it can claim.
Ough, the line 'Just look at this one model that has a Big Thing on it!' Really just sums this all up doesn't it?
Also, it will never not be funny (and really sad) to me to see people freaking out about The Weather Controlling Domes when they are absolutely just radar detection for missiles. We had em in Fylingdales (in the UK), round the 60s through to the 90s, and the only hurricane I could find from that time period just barely made landfall. Whoever was running those weather domes did a shit job!
I am absolutely in love with your Enron hat
Ironically about AccuWeather, I find the radar is fairly accurate for my area.
Most other sources (including local) seem to always downgrade everything to being spotty.
Also, I really hate those conspiracy people. Like, just cause you haven't seen flooding like here ever doesn't mean it's unnatural.
They did the same kind of crap with the Mayfield tornado a couple years ago, saying there was too much lightning for it to be natural among other stupid things. They even literally said they CREATED the tornado somehow and controlled it, like that's impossible if you have a brain. It's one thing to create one, but control it? No way.
Would you be able to speak on how they measure hurricanes in the field while out at sea? I've seen it said that they overestimate the category because they use planes and satellites to measure things like hurricane wind speed saying they should have anemometers directly inside the hurricane in the field, not knowing that weather buoys exist? This is tangentially related since your video is about models and not field measurements.
Bro, sick Enron cap. I'm all about that crash chic.
brother, the algorithm has deemed you the chosen one, i have come to bear witness to the next Dr. Levi Cowan, and youre a nascar fan too, hell yeah, Almirola just won xfinity too!
ty for this oml
it’s kinda like what the main stream media does everyday
That enron hat goes hard af brother
For the love of God, don't call the GFS a "bad hurricane model." Deterministic model runs 1+ week out are not useful tools for determining TC genesis, regardless of whether it's the ECMWF, the CMC, UKMET, or whatever other global model. It's more useful to look at medium range ensemble forecasts for something like this. The GFS tends to be more aggressive at developing TCs, but the ECMWF tends to underestimate TC genesis. Looking at ensemble runs for both the ECMWF and the GFS is more preferable in these scenarios until we get to very short range forecasts.
how do you feel about the channel "Weatherman Plus", he is where I get all of my hurricane information from
Nascar merch, talking about weather, hell yeah
"The National Weather Service is cool."
Republicans: "...and I took that personally."
Thank you for this video
My gripe is storm chasers filming and using their phone WHILE DRIVING.
The best meterologist on YT is Brian Shields, known by his channel as Mr. Weatherman. He gives only information, tells people he looks at the environment, what else is happening with other weather fronts, wind sheer, ocean temps, etc. I look at the info from NHC and him. I tell people not to panic.
Love it. I try telling this to people as well and I am just some shill or whatever. Phew. People believe in more misinformation than reality. It’s kinda scary man
I don’t think you could say the GFS is TOTALLY HORRIBLE at hurricanes. The GFS is one model, it’s actually been a lot better the last couple of years. We have to look at the ensembles, all the models, everything taken into consideration.
Greetings from germany. I also think, the NWS is a good thing - we have the DWD here which translates to "german weather service". Important information and severe weather warnings shouldn´t come from a private company.
Where are you a student at? I’m a current meteorology student at TAMU!
OU! i applied to a&m bc im from texas but OU was cheaper so im there
@@curealmy OU was cheaper?? Anyways it’s nice seeing other queer meteorology students :3
ou gave me more scholarships yeah
this video is so good. Following.
i hope you enjoy japanese indie music bc thats most of this channel LOL
And ty so mu ch i have so much weather anxiety lowkey but knowing where to go for factual info about weather is so clutch. I live in WI and my dad is in MS and knowing who to ACTUALLY check to find out if hes about to be drowned under a hurricane is dope info. Thank you
How do people get into weather reporting as a hobby (genuine question) , I thought it was something journalists did when they didn't get to to be a tv anchor
ive been into weather since i was a kid. i got into doing TV stuff bc i think im decent on camera, im a meteorology major and doing broadcast journalism stuff on the side
Kinda related… if you live in the US, you can volunteer to be a spotter for the NWS. Most spotters already have jobs that take them outside with the right equipment (radio broadcasters for example), but most anyone can be a spotter as long as you take a free class offered in most counties. The NWS relies on spotters to report conditions on the ground so they can deliver more accurate and specific information and predictions.
skywarn is cool to learn about storms ye ^
Weather is so much more interesting than tv anchor
@@musicarain4702 tbh yeah
This is pretty crazy because they treat weathermodels like they're "forecasters" and not forecasting tools. The GFS is actually a pretty good model... if you know how to use it. I remember it showed Category 5's in the month of May back in 2022; tbh the GFS was terrible that year. The model is a good "look out for what's possible" model as opposed to a "this is going to happen" model. And this sucks because many of the population isn't weather educated enough to realize these things, so they end up believing it. And I don't see it getting better anytime soon.
It's funny, I and a few others commented negatively on DW's channel concerning his clickbaity thumbnails, and the next day his video was titled, "The Storm From Hell." (I think we rubbed him the wrong way, lol.) Also, as a novice weather enthusiast, I don't understand why the GFS is so fickle sometimes - I thought they'd upgraded it.
I’m a conservative and I watch these models constantly all summer. I saw the very run that guy was hyping and instantly labeled it “fever dream”
You have to watch the trends and the changes from run to run, and it’s only when something consistently happens that it should be taken seriously.
I've learned to just use the NOAA/NHC site for monitoring the gulf. Otherwise I just wake up and wait to see what the weather is. If I need to see real time radar I use weatherbug.