The Incredible Logistics Behind Weather Forecasting
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- Опубликовано: 28 июн 2022
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Writing by Sam Denby and Tristan Purdy
Editing by Alexander Williard
Animation led by Josh Sherrington
Sound by Graham Haerther
Thumbnail by Simon Buckmaster
References
[1] www.weather.gov/rev/upperair
[2] www.weather.gov/upperair/fact...
[3] www.weather.gov/iwx/wsr_88d
[4] www.roc.noaa.gov/WSR88D/Publi...
[5] journals.ametsoc.org/view/jou...
[6] www.ndbc.noaa.gov
[7] w1.weather.gov/xml/current_obs/
[8] www.weather.gov/media/emwin/E...
[9] www.weather.gov/media/emwin/E...
[10] www.weather.gov/nwr/
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I work as a meteorologist for the National Weather Service at the WFO level and I want to sincerely thank you for making this video! You did a great job covering the complexities of the NWS, and even highlighted some lesser known aspects, like IMETs deploying to wildfires or the COOP observers that provide daily observations on temps, rain, and snow. I’ve been watching Wendover for years and this is one of my new favorites!
and how much have you studied Geoengineering which affects weather more than anything?
@@MaximumEfficiency And how much Kool aid have you drank today?
@@MaximumEfficiency when dumb people reach maximum of their mental capacity, they end up with conspiracy theories and that's how you get posts from MaximumEfficiency. Such a unique and interesting phenomenon that we can all admire - unique insight into how lower levels of life think.
@@MaximumEfficiency Climate change and it's effects are a pretty big field of study, you know. At least, I'm assuming you're referring to that as it's the closest we've gotten to geoengineering, however accidentally.
Thank you for your service woodman
Me, as a meteorologist, watching this like "I know them!" or "I know the people working on that!" every 30 seconds.
That’s so cool! You guys are awesome!
Badass
Even studying for aircraft dispatching, where we rely on these forecasts constantly, I'm watching this like "oh that's a METAR he's showing" or "oh I know that forecast in the B-roll"
Meteorologists are the best people ever. Their job helps everyone!
I'm curious: how many times, if any, did you say "hey, waitaminnit!".
Cause that happens to me a lot, with IT related stuff...
A common joke in coding/computer science is that the true heroes are the random dudes in their 40’s named Gary that donate so much time and effort as a labor of love. I have a lot of respect for volunteers like that.
I worked at a wastewater treatment plant on the Pacific Northwest coast and we recorded weather conditions for every single day I worked there. The NWS had a weather station within a mile of our plant at the local airport and we always compared our results with theirs. It was interesting to compare rainfall totals between these two stations and notice the difference between the stations.
how much have you studied Geoengineering which affects weather more than anything ?
Interesting. How would you characterize the differences?
@@MaximumEfficiency Keep posting this, it's working out great for you.
@@MaximumEfficiency show us a map of the wrinkles on your brain ⚪️ I bet it looks like a gEoEnGiNeErEd cue ball.
@@MaximumEfficiency you really know nothing about atmospheric science when you think it’s geoenginerring
Of course Sam would manage to get airplane logistics into a video about weather prediction 🤣
It's a shibboleth.
I wanted to ask; does he know airplanes take a lot of measurements too, but then I knew it was Sam and thought: of course he knows.
Was looking for this comment lol! I was gonna say, did anyone else notice how he said that a whole bunch of issues could be caused by solar flares, but then he only goes to mention the aircraft, without listing anything else? haha
Take any logistics topic like weather, waste & recycling, power generation, grocery stores, computer networking...and it all boils down to airplanes.
He wouldn't have made the video otherwise.
Lots of people say “the weather man is always wrong” but let’s be honest. Meteorologist and Climatologist spend their lives researching our planet’s climate, weather, and atmosphere. And weather forecasting and climate models have become so much accurate than even just 10 years ago. And remember, it’s all about probabilities and stuff. Nothing being predicted will ever be 100% accurate, but we can get close.
One of the more impressive things is seeing old news forecasts go from daily forecasts, to 3 day to 5 day to 7 day to 10 day and now we can even see 14 day forecasts.
With advancing technology, it would be interesring to account solar activities to climate, which is most likely [based on historical data predating the industrial revolution] the main driving force in climate change.
bogus video - ZERO mention of Geoengineering which affects weather more than anything
@@MIKAEL212345 except for they're not even accurate 3 days ahead. Maybe different where one lives but in WI it's always a guess it feels like.
@@MaximumEfficiency Talk about it. If you please tell us what you know.
I know that on some level I knew this system was complicated, but this gives me a new appreciation for the work people do. Thanks for the breakdown, Sam and team. These hardworking people deserve better recognition.
@@repentandbelieveinJesusChrist3u I
I would just like to appreciate all these people who work behind the "weather app" for us to see what's to come in the next 10 days. It is so easy to just open an app, check weather and close it down for free but the amount of work, effort, calculations that go into it all behind the scenes is enormous, you all are the real ones! ♥
@pyropulse I dont know about you, but my 10-day weather predictions based on just looking outside tend to be quite incorrect most of the time.
HARMLESS WEATHER INSTRUMENT is what I intend to stamp on my villainous superweapons.
It's a diabolical plan that no one will see through! I can only imagine how much evil laughter you're going to produce when the world falls for your ruse!
Call it just "WEATHER INSTRUMENT" and you won't be lying, as long as your superweapon superheats all the air on the planet.
11:54 Love that even professional meterologist have to bookmark a Celsius to Fahrenheit calc!
I work as a production tech/technical director at a weather news tv network based in the Denver metro area (a competitor to The Weather Channel). I never realized till I started working there, how much math is involved in meteorology. Most of the producers have meteorology degrees and it always impresses me how they’re able to help those of us less mathematically inclined to understand weather and weather related stuff.
Why do producers need to know meteorology? How is that part of their job? And in general why do the TV guys need to be experts in this stuff, don't they just publicize what the NWS sends them?
@@ArawnOfAnnwn Weather news broadcasting is very ad-lib because of the very nature of weather forecasting. Weather can be unpredictable and there are multiple different ways of showing the information in the programs that interpret Doppler Weather Radar, so you can't just write a script in the rundown and read it off of a teleprompter; in fact, our teleprompters show the preview/program screens that come out of the switcher so the on-air meteorologists can see in real time what they're doing.
In contrast, in a regular tv news environment where everything is scripted, rundowns, scripts and shows are ideally written a couple hours in advance and uploaded into the system. At places like TWC, or where I work, the rundowns are frequently being written during the show, sometimes 10 or 20 minutes in advance.
Because it's ad-lib, someone like me, who has a degree in journalism but only has an enthusiast-level knowledge of weather, would have a hard time making on-the-spot changes to a weather forecast. And God help me if I was on air during a tornado on the ground and had to interpret changing conditions and warn people in the appropriate areas. Basically, in an ad-lib tv environment, you have to know what you are talking about to be an effective anchor.
@@kylewitter2806 Ah okay. Thanks for explaining.
So what does your job entail? Do you need to know a lot about meteorology?
@pyropulse wait, physics uses MATH?!
Jk, but I guess I should clarify, I didn’t realize how much calculus and other advanced math was involved.
17:53 One interesting bit to note is that they were going to make their own app, but lobbyists stopped this.
Also some have tried to make it so that certain data is behind a paywall…despite nearly all the data coming from taxpayer dollars (so it should be free at point of service) !
"... that certain data is behind a paywall": They didn't succeed, right? Right!?
Yeah Adam Conover's "The G Word" on Netflix talks about how Accuweather (and probably others) tried to do this despite their entire business relying on free taxpayer-funded data. Shameless and a spit in the face of the dedicated people that keep the NWS running.
it should be noted that it was one person in Congress who presented the idea to raise more money but didn't get someone to back them and also received severe backlash from...basically everyone. His evidence was that the forecast for Hurricane Katrina was inaccurate when in reality it was one of the best forecasts they had done up to that point with 2-3 days out the center of the cone of uncertainty predicting almost exactly where the storm was going to go.
@@jamsum7215 Thanks!
Blame people like Barry Myers and that other taxpayer-paid entity working against the issues of their "shareholders", the US Congress.
Sam thanks so much for this video! As a meteorologist who works for deploying the new MROS (Manual Weather Observing System), it was so fun to see both the old and new software and equipment in action in the video! Some corrections though:
They are called radioSONDES not radioSCONES, the balloons go up to around 100,000ft or 30,000 meters or 30km not 300,000m.
Also, technically fronts don't have pressure so it wouldn't be a "high/low pressure front" .
Other than that Sam, this video was top 5!
It’s also helium *or* hydrogen in the balloon, not both gases in one balloon. Barely worth noting but I still cringed.
Also not sure why it shows radar analysis while describing the HRRR!
Every Wendover video I see someone in the comments that basically says "I work in (relevant sector portrayed in video) and this is so incredibly well done" and frankly it's amazing how consistently this occurs
AI chatboxes have taken over the comment section of most internet sites. they’re practicing interacting with humans.
@@pcoles78 It did cross my mind with the recent prevalence of youtube spam bots
Back in the days when we operated the Mars rovers Spirit and Opportunity which used solar panels to generate the electric power to work, Malin Space Science Systems provided us with a weather forecast that warned us of strong winds. On one hand strong winds would clean the solar panels but on the other hand they were lifting dust in the atmosphere and reduce the available power. It allowed the rovers to survive the Dust Storm in 2007 and warned us of the one that ultimately killed Oppy in 2018.
Cool story bro.
@Hernando Malinche I drove Spirit and Oppy for 15 years so most of the days was business as usual. After a while it stops being exciting but there were days where it was a mixture of terrifying worry you would make mistakes, kill a mission in front of the eyes of the tax payers. Some days were amazing, working with really smart people who were trying to figure out a solution to problems never encountered before,. Although they were just pieces of metal we felt they were part of us. I assure you that when Spirit and Oppy stopped working and their mission was declared complete there wasn't a dry eye in the room. Oppy has bbeen silent for four years now, and I still can't get over it.
@@bellutta he is fine, he just sleeps a bit until we come along and bring him home. 😊
What did you command the rovers to do when you were informed of the dust storm?
@@dannydaw59 We reduced the daily activities to a minimum up to the point of asking the rovers to shut down complete;y and communicate thir status every few days. Once the storm was over we gradually resumed activities.
finally, someone who takes an interest in weather forecasting systems.
Same here lol
again, bogus video - ZERO mention of Geoengineering which affects weather more than anything
@@MaximumEfficiency shut up
@@MaximumEfficiency Elaborate?
@@crysolinox4952 he's conspiracy nutjob who believes in chemtrails
7:46 the one buoy sitting in the middle of America like 👁👁
It's crazy how we underestimate a simple thing like weather and forecasting, never imagined the amount of work that goes through for us!
The thing is, even if we can predict how the weather conditions are without the use of forecasting, we can’t predict far into the future. Only what will come within the next hour or minutes.
If you don’t realize, an hour or less is not enough time to prepare a lot for an incoming storm. With such less time of predicting and then evacuating, a lot of human lives would of been lost in storms like the August 10, 2020 Derecho.
Sure, it gives you time to dress for the weather, but in severe weather scenarios, too little time for preparation.
The reason we do forecasting is to protect lives, in giving the population days or even weeks of time to prepare. Especially with possible fire conditions or a tornado outbreak. If relying on forecasting is nonsense, then how come some to most severe weather scenarios haven’t gotten more deaths than expected? It’s because the forecasting saves lives! Just simply feeling the air doesn’t give you enough data to see if a tornado is coming, a strong windstorm is imminent, or fire weather is expected.
These things need to be looked at from above the surface!
Sure, you might not need predictions for areas that experience little to no severe conditions with storms, you still are gonna need it for other conditions that could significantly damage your town/cities and potentially you, even if that kind of situation is as rare as a blue moon. Time is of essence, and if you give yourself only an hour or minutes to prepare, it can and/or will impact you significantly.
@pyropulse Granting your powers of deduction regarding weather to be fully accurate, that doesn't do you any favors beyond the immediate future. There's still a ton of value in knowing whether there will be rain all weekend so that you know on Tuesday that planning your Saturday beach trip would be foolish. Reasonable know, or often and should learn when to take it with some salt. < 60% of rain for instance someone could fairly argue isn't very valuable if it's only for one day a few in the future, because it varies so much.
Just to acknowledge how imperfect it all is though, there is often 40-60% chance of rain over a 6 hour period sometimes the same day that is a complete bust, not a single drop. Of course you could say "that's because it's the same as saying a 40-60% chance of sun/clouds," but having that percentage over more hours is more points of potential success or failure, so sometimes it's pretty disappointing. We also had 2-3 major busts for snow predictions in the northeast last winter.
Despite all that, I still value the forecast quite a bit. Temperatures if nothing else tend to be consistently accurate within a few degrees, which is good enough for me. (Not to mention knowing in advance that 3 days from now will be an unseasonably cool/warm day that I could take advantage of/avoid accordingly)
100,000 feet or 300,000 meters. Can’t wait for next years episode of HAI that includes that. Love the videos btw, always well done and informative
Was thinking the same, surely it should be 30,000 meters?
@@104spun you are correct. 300,000 metres is in space 😂
The captions say 30,000, but Sam’s voiceover pretty clearly says 300,000. Obviously he caught the error as he fixed the captions but probably not until after he’d uploaded the video (or it was too late to redo the voiceover, though I feel like he wouldn’t have uploaded it if he had known there was an error).
maybe he meant a million feet! these are space balloons!
@@chrisluth4427 I think it's more likely that the captions were based on a script that said 30000 and he simply misread it during the recording
Every time wendover says something is insane take a shot
We will be alcoholic real quick
I'll just go to the hospital now to get my stomach pumped now
Shots fired. I mean drunk
oh no
I choose life
The Australian Bureau of Meterology is absolutely vital for the functioning of the nation. Right now we are experiencing (yet another) once in a lifetime weather event and the work that they are doing is definitely saving lives.
And shockingly, weather pages are full of people just saying "They're manipulating the weather!" The internet is a curse.
Sounds like the sort of program conservatives inherently want to destroy: doing something for a purpose other than profit.
This video makes me really happy as an atmospheric science student, introducing people to the complexity of weather and nws role in it.
How do you decide to go into something as narrow and obscure as atmospheric science? The one thing that makes me scratch my head is where did all the thousands of people come from, how did they enter the field, when did they realize they wanted to forecast weather?
Cheers
@@mkontent I cannot give you a definitive answer because it varies from person to person, although I can give you my experience. It all started with an interest in the sky, watching the weather channel and storm chasers on youtube as a kid (Great storm chaser btw is pecos hank). I decided to pursue that interest and became involved with the weather community and the science of meteorology as a whole (I joined a few weather discords). I learned a lot from there and I have good memories of us being in a voice call tracking tornado outbreaks live. After talking with a few professional meteorologists (both broadcast and NWS) and current students in different atmospheric programs, I knew personally that I want to pursue this field. I found a college near me (not really close but whatever) and applied. For other people, their interest in meteorology can be from other factors like tragedies. I have some friends whose interest in weather came from being affected by major tornadoes like Tuscaloosa and Mayfield. Hopefully this was able to help and feel free to ask questions.
@@OayxYT very interessing thx
0:36 feet to meter is still hard, even after years of edutubing xD
As a meteorology student, this video will now be used by me to show someone what I will do with my degree. Thank you for making this!
@dilik mli same, I always took it for granted but this is impressive. Kinda wish I had gone into meteorology, seems like an important and fulfilling job
Still find it funny that the gulf of Mexico is the reason in Ireland we aren't under 10 feet of snow every winter
Back when the pandemic first started I kept telling everyone how it seemed like forecasts felt less accurate throughout that entire year in 2020. Glad to see I wasn't imagining things. I look closely at the weather all the time and I was able to notice how less accurate everything was
Fun fact, all merchant ships can (not required) and are encouraged to submit multiple weather observations per day, areas with less ship traffic tend to have more NOAA weather bouys
I wondered about that when looking at the map. That makes so much sense! Thanks for adding that nugget! 💚🌎✌️😎
Another amazing service that NOAA provides is the NOAA Weather Radio which can be tuned in to with many consumer grade walkie talkies and emergency radios. This information can be life saving if you are back country camping or hiking well out of cell phone range. Ah yep, there it is, I was too quick on the draw.
Me: Oh finally a Wendover video without planes, it's balloons.
Sam not even 4 minutes in: Planes are also up there.
My goodness, I had no idea how many people are volunteering to help predict the weather! I want to thank everyone who is volunteering their time and resources to provide this essential data to the National Weather Service. Y'all are awesome! We truly have a great spirit of volunteering in this nation.
Bit of a conversion error: 100,000 ft is ~30,000m not 300,000.
Excellent video. One minor correction: 100,000 feet is approximately 30,000 meters.
The subtitles were correct, so they simply misread it.
That bugged me ngl had me thinking I didn’t know my unit conversions 😅
A huge system designed and built by the federal government that is useful, important and actually works. Amazing!
A lot of government projects work out that way actually. It turns out the government can be a very effective way to organize society as long as enough politicians can suppress their seemingly constant urge to be corrupt obstructionists when they're setting things up.
It works? I cant count how many times the forecast has been wrong lol
@@Mastemine498 Well, first, learn to count, I guess.
13:00 Right now, June 29th, a Gulf low is actually forming in the gulf and there is the chance for tropical development.
Fun fact about the ASOS (Automated Surface Observation System) stations he mentioned. Not only do they transmit on radio frequencies, they also can be received by calling into a phone number. You just go to the Airnav page for your local airport, for example KSTL, then scroll until you either see ASOS or AWOS and a phone number. You can save this number in your contacts and call it at any time for weather data.
As a former skydiving instructor, my days used to start with a call to AWOS to see if conditions at KLMO matched the Metar data. They usually did, but there were days when they didn't and we'd get to play our least favorite game--are-we-getting-off-the-ground-today.
@@joelsteverson I mostly just use them to see if I need to bring a jacket in fall or spring, but there are a ton of uses for them, especially in aviation
@@goreoproductions6955 They are really handy. I frequently call them to determine if I need rain gear.
Your comment got me thinking... I wonder how many people have discovered AWOS and use it for non-aviation purposes.
I imagine it must be annoying when you call for information about an oncoming hurricane and you get hold music.
@@vigilantcosmicpenguin8721 nah it’s super cool. It’s just on a loop 24/7/365, so you only have to wait for the message to restart. Maybe 30 seconds at most to hear the full message. Try it!
Interestingly, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues detailed forecasts especially for sheep graziers. These forecasts allow graziers to plan shearing around cold, wet or windy weather that could be hazardous to freshly shorn sheep.
Amazing video about the weather service system. NOAA does an amazing job.
On a different not, the narrator (Sam) mixed the the measurements at 0:34.
100,000 feet is not 300,000 meters. It's the opposite. 300k feet is 100k meters (more or less)
In the subtitles he says that 100,000 feet is 30,000 meters.
Fun Fact: Everything that the National Weather Service does costs each American only about $3 PER YEAR.
in other words, the return on investment is astronomical.
As a weather nerd i can say you did a good job summarizing this. Proud to be in multiple of the volunteer weather programs
Hey, thank you so much for the video. I am an Engineer at Graw Radiosondes who is currently taking over a majority of the manual launched US radiosonde network, so ama.
this really puts in perspective how unhinged it was when that guy tried to edit a weather map with a sharpie.
"Probably something like this" 😂
Really appreciate this. the average person knows so little about weather its absolutely painful.
Local news meteorologist here -- Outstanding video! Thanks so much for making it. It really is WAY, WAY more complicated than most people think.
This really is a comprehensive look at every little aspect of what goes into a forecast -- radar, radiosondes, satellites, buoys, ASOS, aircraft data, ship data, volunteers, the list goes on and on.
One point to add: Forecast accuracy from the HRRR, NAM, GFS etc. is hugely dependent on the initial conditions they're given. We literally cannot get enough observations...every little bit is valuable.
We collectively have a very good understanding of the physics behind the atmosphere...so much so that in theory, if we had a 100% complete and accurate observation system - covering every single point on Earth - every forecast would be pretty much 100% accurate. But that will forever be impossible in an atmosphere that is vast, inherently chaotic, and in constant flux. So we do the best we can with what we've got!
Thanks again.
Respect
Being from Norman, OK and seeing the weather center was fun
Damn I'm getting older...when I saw the notification I audibly said "UHHH weather forecasting system..hell yes" *click* lol
im a weather enthusiast and im happy you made this video!
Awe-inspiring!
In my brief lifetime (so far), weather forecasting has gotten really good. I remember pretty common jokes about weather forecasting in the late 80s/early 90s, and I still hear them a bit today, but the state of weather forecasting to today (much less compared to almost a century ago) is an extremely under-appreciated tale of progress.
Thanks for highlighting the NWS. A few clarities.
- Yes, COOP observers take precip observations, but the automated ASOS stations also automatically observe precipitation. Also radar estimated rainfall is increasingly becoming more accurate.
- High/Low pressure front? sigh... yeah. Cold fronts, warm fronts, stationary fronts, occluded fronts, even Marfa fronts is really the terminology used.
- NOAA JUST (June 28, 2022) got another brand new set of supercomputers doubling their computing speed (49th and 50th fastest computers in the world attm).
can we take a second and think about how much information this video just gave us. How tf did the video writers find all this information, actually think for a moment just how hard and long that would take. Jesus
Fact: it's impossible to make a Wendover episode without aircraft.
Pretty sure the previous video had no aircraft in it.
Aviation meteorologist here. While I don't work for NWS (or NOAA), my office relies greatly on NWS products - primarily observational and model data - to produce our own specialized forecasts.
the hidden complexity of the modern world is amazing. The average person will never understand or bother trying to get an idea of all the work that is required to make the modern world run smoothly
Damn the system is really clever and interesting. Lot of really cool tech and makes me want to see about getting involved in data collection when I can someday.
I really would love to get a branch of this video expanded in the future. A video about how solar weather is forecasted, how big flares can get, how they have effected us in the past, etc I think would be a super informative video for a lot of people!
Please do a coverage of the European system too. You mentioned that its super computing capabilities at some point recent rivalled the NWS' and as Europe is the world leader on earth observation space infrastructute *and* considering Europe is politically far more complex than the US is i wonder how extensive and intricate ours is. I would love to watch a video of yours like this excellent one on it!
You could probably see something like that on european social media.
It didn't rival american GFS only at some point. Statistically speaking, ECMWF consistently performs better than the GFS
I'd expect the European system to have a superior resolution, considering it's a small, densely populated continent. The weather is possibly also more complex than the US (though generally less extreme).
Yeah I wonder how much is different at the various nation levels and what sort of cooperation and coordination there is.
Unit conversion issue at 00:38, should be about 30,000m, not 300,000m.
I live in a neighborhood with a NOAA station and doppler radar dome. Pretty sweet looking at the radar image and knowing i'm near to the center point.
After many years of searching for good fun explanations of weather prediction, this is it. This is the best! Thank you Wendover!
This is so cool, I've passed that station at Wallops Island hundreds of times but never knew it was part of such a larger system. So much cooperation all around country and world, it really shows what we can do together. It also seems so simple but has such a huge impact. Incredible all around. Thank you for making this.
Watching this while on my break from my shift at the weather service, on my first day back... How convenient.
0:37 I think 300,000 meters may be a tad bit too much x)
As a meteorologist this is so cool!
the scale of this work is breathtaking. in the past few years that i've been paying attention to weather forecasts, they've been pretty spot-on
This was one of the most informative videos I've seen this year. Super clear, easy to understand, and packed with information that I didn't know before! Thank you, Sam.
The Wendover law. No matter what topic the video is on, sam will find a way to make some portion of it involve airplanes
To be fair, weather does involve planes a ton. I'm surprised he didn't mention things like the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that fly into hurricanes to get a clear picture of the weather within and give us a clearer forecast. Without accurate weather forecasting, it would not be possible to make commercial aviation anywhere near as safe as it is now. In fact, airlines are legally required to use NWS forecasts to ensure they are safe to operate the flight under the forecasted weather.
Fwiw, American military vessels perform hourly weather recordings and relay them back every 4-6 hours. I don't know if they make it to the NWS, but those are additional potential datasets as well.
Edit: also shout out to the NDBC. What a crutch when your out at sea!
One of your best videos yet. Absolutely fascinating and fanTASTIC footage.
Such a beautiful system. I knew there would be more than just the tv weather man, but it being this complex yet thorough makes for one of the most ingenious arts or work
To all the "taxation is theft" bros, here's an example of the army of individuals and equipment working 24/7/365 tirelessly and thanklessly to give you high quality weather forecasts that would otherwise not exist if it weren't for taxes
Ya but what percentage of 900 billion military budget weather forecast machinery takes?
and still very unreliable, I'm better off looking at the sky to see if it will rain or not
@@ivanrodriguez268 here in FL that won't help you either. one minute it's sunny and clear, next minute you have heavy downpours.
@@ivanrodriguez268 Weather is one of the impossible things to forecast reliably. If theres anything that embodies the chaos theory the most - its the weather and despite the millions of little variables that all affect weather, we are lucky to even be able to scrape off enough data to ensure we know something big or dangerous will happen days before it hits us.
@@ivanrodriguez268until your house gets destroyed by the weather. Then you would be demanding a reason and money because “why they didn’t warn me”.
Tax is always theft and used for unnecessary things as long as it doesn’t benefit you directly.
Such a shortsighted thinking…
As a meteorology major you have no idea how much I lost my goddamn mind watching this video. Really great video!
Best Wendover video so far. Thank you for your awesome work!
Really good video on the national weather service, and how it works. I'm shocked you didn't talk about Norman, OK! You kept showing stock footage of it, but its the largest NWS office in the US, and plays an important central role, in Education through the university of Oklahoma and gathering all the data together.
They also source data from ships. US Navy warships are required to track environmental conditions and reports it every day, operations willing.
All NATO ships afaik, and civilian ships are encouraged to do so
3:13 So nice to know that Planes also play an important role in weather forecasting. Seriously, good topic and brilliant production. Thanks
It's amazing how much public servants are forgotten by me. My head drill sergeant in basic training was actually an artillery meteorologist, and I remember him, acting slightly embarrassed about it one time. Another drill sergeant(who I think was some kinda bad ass) stopped him, and said "and you are the baddest weatherman ever, and the toughest soldier ever". I don't remember much from basic, cause I have a bad memory, but I remember this.
There were a few head-scratching statements in this video.
For example where you talk about a "high pressure front" or "U-shaped Gulf Stream" (at 13:30). I think you meant "jet stream."
Gulf stream effects weather
@@jtorola actually geoengineering affects weather more than anything
@@stinkymart3173 nope
@@jtorola It does but the graphic clearly shows a dip in the jet stream near Texas, which is nowhere near the Gulf Stream.
Very good video! Every time I saw the NWC in Norman OK or the OU logo I was like "Hey! I know that place!"
This is an awesome video, one of my favorites of yours so far. Thanks.
Forty years in the business starting in the USAF. The growth of models has been amazing these last 40 years, but the first rule was always this: before you hit the button to transmit your forecast, look out the freakin' window. Saved my ass countless times.
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that wendover keeps mentioning grand junction Colorado like it’s been mentioned in 4 different videos recently?!
It was interesting to hear that some airlines are cooperating to collect data, so this question comes to mind that why not ask all airlines in the world to join this worldwide cooperation through international aviation organizations like IATA and ICAO.
He listed only american airlines. Many airlines with frequent travels collect data. He just talked about the american system of weather forecasting but you have to consider the global cooperation too. Like he said, from weather forecasting profits everyone. But It would be to complex to cover in a youtube video. I'd love to see a nebula production about the global scale.
I got so excited when you started talking about space weather, i love space weather so much
19:27 Sweep this snow of my windscreen, a little off the door windows, I'll be fine. 🤣
It's crazy the US has so much information out there I'd love to see how a different country runs their weather infrastructure system.
A high quality Nebula documentary would be awesome!
funny you should mention dodge city, my grandma works in the airline industry and gets her weather from the local airport. :)
Love that you got the Vandenberg station, too cool
Shout out to KFFC NOAA seen @ 18:00. Lived there for a while, learned to fly at KFFC, learned to read the METAR and saw the radar dome.
According to the XML DATA, 84% relative humidity for June 22nd. Sounds like GA in the summer.
TIL that there are 3 metres per foot...
3 feet per meter***
@@chairwithoutwheels9148 They’re quoting the video 0:37 “100,000 feet or 300,000 meters”
Is it 3.3ft per 1M
I actually know the guy who is developing the new climate model using a supercomputer, him explaining it is pretty interesting and frustratingly complex
Is this the new supercomputer that was just announced yesterday?
@@kylewitter2806 maybe? I haven’t followed that news recently. where did they announce it? All I know for sure is that it’s made to track global warming on an even bigger scale than before and that it’s a pretty big project for the department of energy.
@@leobezard5998 It was announced on June 28th I believe.
Wendover is the dude that answers the questions we’ve never asked but are very interesting
Because of this channel I’ve learned about the unusual logistics of loads of topics I’d never even think to learn about…
Great job Sam!
When I'm at work, I'll stop in on RUclips and see Wendover posted a video, it makes my entire day, really indescribable. Some of the best independent film making in the entire world. Happening right here on Wendover Productions. Thank you.
Jetlag is awesome too. Just really want to pay you a compliment. You're top of the line.
i love you
@@grade12purity41 ❤️
Thanks for this. Growing up in Hawaii, I hardly was far away from knowing what the weather was going to be or what Tsunami warnings were in effect, thanks to NOAA and the NWS.
Overseas, its hard to get any decent forecasts.
This is the video for explanation of this process. I was curious and now that has been satisfied.
The ad for Nebula and Curiosity Stream at the end is literally the best ad that I've ever heard. Just the reasons why it's good without all the false promises and other crap. I wish every advertisement was like that!
I have a question. Does our prediction get more accurate over the time due to more available data or does it get worse due to the shifts in climate and long-term model innacuracies?
If I could quickly list the things that impact predictions the most it would be initial data quality and quantity, data assimilation methods, and model resolution. Overtime we have gotten better at all of these things
Bigger computers mean better info
Accuracy has improved quite a lot over the last 50 years, climate change is too slow to cause a significant decrease in accuracy as work is constantly being done to improve them
I used to work at the UK Met Office, and a week long forecast is now about as accurate as a 2/3 day forecast in the 80s
@pyropulse "week long forecasts are still not accurate" well accurate enough for what standard? Different fields and industries have different levels of usefulness for different levels of accuracy. We've reached very useful levels for 2-3 day logistical planning, and the 7-10 day is pretty bad in comparison, but, hey, it's still getting better.
Look at it in context, what other field predicts the future accurately at 3 days and sometimes still a good prediction at 7 days? Your mechanic for your car? Doctors predicting the progression of diseases? Economists? Compared to how unreliable that crowd can be, I think meteorology is pretty impressive.
Atmospheric science is by far one of the coolest, most important and most under appreciated STEM fields!
Incredible. I knew it was complicated, but a video like this really helps paint a clear picture of just how complex weather predictions are.
For the continental US, you could have shown the extensive array of radars in Canada, and in addition to the buoy arrays, there are also ships at sea transmitting the normal weather data, but also sea surface temperatures, and some of those vessels (navy for example) will also launch balloons. The weather prediction for deployed forces is also a major element that adds to global models. All of the data helps tune the models.
This absolutely gargantuan system that we so heavily rely on should be funded as much as possible
it does get quite a bit of funding. the entire doppler radar system across the US is being upgraded right now, my local radar just went down for a few weeks for an upgrade.