Why This World Chess Championship is Impossible to Predict

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  • Опубликовано: 25 ноя 2024

Комментарии • 124

  • @jacksarkisian
    @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +20

    EDIT:
    The time control for the event is 120 minutes, with 30 minutes being allocated on move 41 along with the 30 second increment. Chess.com's official article has the wrong time control and just used last years format.
    Grammatical error in my script also, Rapport was not missing in the FIDE Olympiad, but missing SINCE the FIDE Olympiad.
    Sinquefield Cup was held after the 2024 Candidates, but even still preparation would be rationed by both players heading towards the WCC ~3 months later.
    Prize splitting for the WCC is worded strangely on the FIDE website, however in the event that the match does not reach 14 games - the remaining prize pool is split evenly between the players.
    Gukesh placed 1st in the Tata Steel Masters, but lost in a tiebreak game to Wei Yi.

    • @diogotimas685
      @diogotimas685 4 дня назад +2

      another point, rapport did play in the olympiad. love the video btw

    • @siyabongadladla4541
      @siyabongadladla4541 4 дня назад +1

      Do you listen to Lil Peep

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад +1

      @@diogotimas685 yeah this wasn't as much as a factual error but i just read from my script wrong, "Rapport has been missing since the Olympiad" was what i had meant to say 😅

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад

      @@siyabongadladla4541 ofc bro but probably not my favourite artist atm - A$AP Rocky on 🔝

    • @System.Error.
      @System.Error. День назад

      rapport is second of ding once again 😊

  • @vibhor5015
    @vibhor5015 4 дня назад +17

    -You lost at me at Alireza played well vs Gukesh in candidates. Gukesh lost that in time scramble.
    -Rapport played at Olympiad and also drew vs Gukesh. He famously changed back to Hungary federation for the home Olympiad.
    -Gukesh didn't win Tata Steel Masters 2024 outright. He was shared 1st with 4 players at +4. Wei Yi won that in blitz.
    -Sinquefield was not before Candidates. It was in July and Candidates in April.

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад +7

      have put these in the edited pinned comment. i think its extremely harsh to suggest Alireza played poorly against Gukesh in the candidates, Alireza had 8 minutes less than Gukesh when he found the brilliant Qb3. he also played with 97% accuracy to Gukesh's 86%. i mentioned Gukesh was unfortunate to have lost it as well, but Alireza certainly outplayed him when push came to shove.

  • @evantm2588
    @evantm2588 4 дня назад +28

    I don’t know much about RUclips but I feel like the title should just be “World Chess Championship 2024 EXPLAINED” because you really broke everything down amazingly. Good shit , good video, keep it up!

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +6

      haha i did struggle a bit with the title, fitting "World Chess Championship" into anything is gonna make it super wordy regardless of how you put it. glad you enjoyed the video bro

  • @Sitbear
    @Sitbear 4 дня назад +18

    It’s actually easy to predict, as long as you don’t care about accuracy

  • @jonathanbiro1533
    @jonathanbiro1533 4 дня назад +7

    Fantastic background research on the opening preferences and performances in past tournaments. Really outclassing some of the bigger channels.

  • @ananthakrishnank3208
    @ananthakrishnank3208 3 дня назад +3

    Gukesh, even after losing one game, will come fully motivated the next day. The same cannot be said for Ding Liren.

    • @HorrorGoofy
      @HorrorGoofy 3 дня назад +2

      we saw ding coming back 3 time in world champonship what r u smoking

    • @ananthakrishnank3208
      @ananthakrishnank3208 3 дня назад

      @@HorrorGoofy Gukesh is not missing mate in 2 like Ding, nor he is going to lose his own bishop in 2 moves like Nepo (ref Nepo's C5 against Magnus).
      Still deep in my heart, I want 2800 level Gukesh versus Peak Ding. Like in a very tough match, Gukesh somehow won one game.

    • @Monocheess
      @Monocheess 3 дня назад +1

      @@HorrorGoofythis is a different Ding

  • @iwill5810
    @iwill5810 3 дня назад +3

    I think people are sleeping on Ding

  • @gbshh9037
    @gbshh9037 3 дня назад +6

    Ding!

  • @bacanboy3681
    @bacanboy3681 4 дня назад +5

    Ding will be fully focused and ready to defend his title. He will prove that he is a worthy champion.

  • @ArshPlaysChess
    @ArshPlaysChess 4 дня назад +8

    I am a simple man.
    I see jacksark video, i click.

  • @Zwellop
    @Zwellop 4 дня назад +6

    About Rapport being Ding's second: I think it's unlikely because of this Hindustan Times interview he did. He mentions their collaboration ending and talks about the match from a 3rd person perspective.
    + Rapport did not miss the Olympiad

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад

      completely right sorry, i had meant that Rapport has been missing since the FIDE Olympiad.
      didn’t know about the interview with the Hindustan Times though, i wonder if Wei Yi is an option now that he’s graduated from university and back to competitive Chess full time - although i’ve seen interviews suggesting he wants to become a world champion himself so who knows.

    • @Zwellop
      @Zwellop 2 дня назад

      ​@@jacksarkisianlol ok I was wrong Rapport is back Mike Klein just confirmed.

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  2 дня назад

      @@Zwellop hahah yeah & Gukesh has Gajewski which is super interesting. saw the name floating around for a while, think he was Vishy's second a few times as well.

  • @Iwachu420
    @Iwachu420 4 дня назад +35

    I want Ding to win so bad

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +6

      i'm gonna feel so bad for whoever loses icl, at least if Gukesh wins he'll 100% get another shot at it.

    • @YadugovindM
      @YadugovindM 4 дня назад +2

      Ding will loose

    • @walterwhite13
      @walterwhite13 4 дня назад

      @@jacksarkisian Wait i don't understand....wdym by he'll get another shot at it?

    • @NN-fw9il
      @NN-fw9il 4 дня назад

      @@jacksarkisian not necessarily imo.Ridiculous amount of young talent in the wings.Ig he does have a knack for winning and clutching important events though so he'd probably get another shot even if he loses.

    • @phanindrakumar3221
      @phanindrakumar3221 4 дня назад +1

      Ding will loose

  • @chayankhere
    @chayankhere 4 дня назад +3

    Respect the grind Jack

  • @lemomar
    @lemomar 4 дня назад +9

    I’m loving the regular content

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +1

      thankyou bro hahah trying to upload much more consistently lately, going for bi-daily uploads atm

    • @lemomar
      @lemomar 3 дня назад

      @ And yet the quality hasn’t dropped, you’re onto something mate!

  • @GaugeSymm
    @GaugeSymm 4 дня назад +2

    It is not impossible to predict. Predictions are not absolute, no one knows the future, in that sense no can predict anything. However, it is absolutely reasonable to assume that Ding is not recovering his 2019 form, may be his 2023 form at best, given how strong Gukesh is, even 2023 Ding who won against Ian will not beat Gukesh. (This of course assumes Gukesh does not crumble or botch like Ian, which given his mental strength, seems quite reasonable to assume, yes he will feel the pressure and yes he will be nervous, at the end of the day, it is still a chess game and a chess battle. Magnus was also new and young against 5 times WC Vishy and despite Magnus's nervousness and pressure of playing in India, Magnus crushed Vishy)

  • @biratdatta
    @biratdatta 4 дня назад +1

    We need channel like you more who are small creators but creating good content for most of the viewers

  • @bibhashbiswas8869
    @bibhashbiswas8869 4 дня назад +3

    There is a saying.."Fortune favours the brave"..and we all know that Gukesh is really brave.

  • @Randomthings1210
    @Randomthings1210 4 дня назад +3

    Great video but a lot of factual errors:
    1. Rapport played FIDE Olympiad from Hungary
    2. Sinquefield cup happened after candidates so, so Gukesh wasn’t heading towards candidates
    3. Abasov did not draw Gukesh, Gukesh won both games against Abasov
    4. If match ends early, remaining prize fund will not be given to winner, it will be split between players. Also, you cannot compare with Nepo match as the rules were different at that time

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад

      thanks for this, have put some of the edits in the pinned comment.
      for 3. i meant he drew him into an opening - meaning it was Abasov that made him play it. like you draw a conclusion from a set of information.

  • @christianbarea9844
    @christianbarea9844 3 дня назад

    Thanks for the great video. I thought it’s gonna be a stomp but after hearing your opinion I’m pretty hyped for the matchup

  • @chesswithNaguib
    @chesswithNaguib 4 дня назад

    This was a really good breakdown of the entire tournament itself! I love it

  • @prakharbg9763
    @prakharbg9763 4 дня назад +3

    As a 2300 lichess player, I respect your take on this WCC but we have to understand that Gukesh playing style is perfect for classical stated by Carlsen himself. He is one of the best calculative player as he just calculates nonstop and has outcalculated Magnus himself in some games. Well obviously Magnus is still better due to his precise intution, experience and amazing endgame technique. I highly doubt Ding will be able to match that spirit. Well these were all technical points but there is also one more point to consider. I am an Indian, I know how important chess match is for Gukesh and India. He will play like his life depends on it, for example in the Olympiad Gukesh had to become unbeatable to secure a gold on table 1 to get the prize money. Later he stated in an interview that he had an personal debt which he had to pay. That was an olympiad but this is a historical WCC, imagine the difference. So in conclusion there is WC playing which is 99% out of form and a young guy playing which is one of the best form and his whole life depends on it.

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад +1

      i think you're 100% right, Gukesh is far more hungry for this win than Ding is - Ding really has nothing to prove. i think the one factor people underestimate is the format though. if Gukesh doesn't get off to a good start he could fall into a pit and not know how to get out. especially considering Ding's preparation is likely to be much better. its not like a regular tournament where you play a different person each time and can strategize what you play - you'll play the same openings over and over hoping for a different result than the last.
      with that being said i do still think Gukesh will win, but only 20% odds for Ding seems insanely low for the circumstances.

    • @ManiS-wd2eu
      @ManiS-wd2eu 3 дня назад +1

      Gukesh dream is to win the world champion match against magnus Carlson, once he mentioned earlier in his interview at age of 12, he motivate himself to achieve this level of game as a challenger of WCC is a great thing, we will see how those technical points and datas of the past will workout or both the players play at the moment of the match.

    • @ManiS-wd2eu
      @ManiS-wd2eu 3 дня назад

      Gukesh dream is win the world champion match against magnus Carlson he mentioned in his interview at age of 12, now one motivate himself to achieve this level of game as a challenger of WCC is a great thing, we will see how those technical points and datas of the past will workout or both the players play at the moment of the match.

  • @zoolity
    @zoolity 4 дня назад +2

    I am HYPED! I have school during the days but who on earth cares? I will be 100% watching this in class and studying

  • @Ghotu664
    @Ghotu664 4 дня назад +2

    Better than the Chess Elite channels they are just clickbaity but bro is really working he should have 3.72 million subs while he has 37.3K Please keep giving educational content for advance players. Basically what i am trying to say is that the high rated need to work themselves there are very few channels for them. But Fortunately this is one of them :) Thanks Jack for doing this work for us :).

  • @Ebobster
    @Ebobster 4 дня назад +1

    I think we will see at least one Trompowsky or Torre attack and one Jobava London as both players are looking for novel situations. I believe Ding has been playing “possum” and hiding his true repertoire, but admittedly if not he may well get crushed. Either way for chess fans the world over just hope it’s a close fighting match.

  • @Relisoc4
    @Relisoc4 4 дня назад +2

    Idk the only way I could reasonably predict ding winning is if I thought this whole downfall arc is just some elaborate snake-in-the-grass routine to disarm gukesh. If ding’s mental is actually at where he’s indicating it’s at, there’s just no way. It doesn’t really happen in high level competition that someone is that mentally broken and still wins

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад

      if it was it would be insane. Ryan Garcia did the exact same thing before he beat Devin Haney (which got overturned because of PEDs but the same premise).
      i think the main factor people completely underestimate is the format though. its absolutely nothing like a regular tournament - versing the same player 14 times in a classical time control is like nothing Gukesh has ever experienced before. his chances of winning will significantly increase in my opinion depending on how big of a role Anand has in his training.

  • @pratik6342
    @pratik6342 3 дня назад +3

    Guki monster!!!!!

  • @carlkligerman1981
    @carlkligerman1981 2 дня назад

    People have forgotten how strong a player Ding was before his form slump. I think it will be an extremely close fight, similar to the Nepo match. Not the highest quality play of all time, but very entertaining.

  • @FarzyPlaysChess
    @FarzyPlaysChess 4 дня назад +1

    I predict that this video is going to be fire as always

  • @GmThorfinn
    @GmThorfinn 4 дня назад +1

    You are doing great bro this type of video need in chess community❤

  • @happyhornet1000
    @happyhornet1000 2 дня назад

    Ding's mental state is shakier than a leaf in a category 5 hurricane. A complete wipeout for Gukesh.

  • @cs7718-k4s
    @cs7718-k4s 4 дня назад +1

    Ding played in the 2024 grenke chess classic

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  3 дня назад +1

      this was considered Rapid according to FIDE, not Classical. Ding also played in Magnus' Freestyle Chess but i felt the differences were too major to be considered.

  • @ericsmith8369
    @ericsmith8369 3 дня назад

    Nobody is the world champion except Magnus, this is just an exhibition. Kasparov said this as well and I agree with him 100%

  • @DustyThePlotagonist
    @DustyThePlotagonist 3 дня назад

    I am excited this is about to be a movie!

  • @tobias2252
    @tobias2252 3 дня назад

    Appreciate that this video is 100% about chess and 0% speculation on the player's mental state. Very well done. Let's hope for an exciting WCC!

  • @mathewpankratz5767
    @mathewpankratz5767 4 дня назад +3

    I think it’s admirable you’re trying to hype this match up, but unless Ding has been pretending to be really damaged, Gukesh is going to crush him. I’d love to see Ding win, but it’s not going to happen. Ding has dropped to worlds #24, 23? Regardless, Gukesh is in far better form. Ding ducked him at the Olympiad and probably did his team a failure by letting someone else lose to Gukesh. Gukesh is going to be incredibly well prepared and in top form. Ding has been falling apart all year. It’s going to be a bloodbath

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +1

      to be honest usually i’d agree with you, but like many others i thought Nepo would absolutely destroy Ding in 2023, and that didn’t happen at all. the only reason that didn’t happen was because the format is so brutal - something Gukesh will have to approach the right way for sure.

    • @Monocheess
      @Monocheess 3 дня назад

      Ding is #24 but he’s been playing well below that level. No wins since January, like 40 classical games ago. There’s 0 chance he pulls it out over a 14 game match.

  • @sourabhpatne6618
    @sourabhpatne6618 4 дня назад

    Underrated guy

  • @K.S_20087
    @K.S_20087 4 дня назад +4

    Can i gamble on this world championship?

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +3

      brother you can gamble on anything nowadays 😭😭

    • @Monocheess
      @Monocheess 3 дня назад

      Not super worth it anymore, only get +20% betting on Gukesh.

  • @johndorian473
    @johndorian473 17 часов назад

    On the one hand Gukesh is in top form and motivated. On the other hand Xi jinping will unalive Ding Liren if he brings shame to Chyyyyna. So maybe that motivation is more compelling

  • @chessUSER1234eividukas1
    @chessUSER1234eividukas1 4 дня назад +1

    i want to ding to win he is a good guy

  • @leninakoijam7058
    @leninakoijam7058 День назад

    Ding: One of the longest unbeaten record and also 2800 + player
    Gukesh: Youngest candidate winner & also youngest world Championship challenger..
    Who will win? Let's wait & see the upcoming exciting matches

  • @pemrograman-cepat3393
    @pemrograman-cepat3393 4 дня назад +2

    Probably Alireza will win. Magnus once said “my fav opponent was alireza”. It means magnus found that alireza was hard to beat

  • @Ghotu664
    @Ghotu664 4 дня назад +1

    make a video on bogo and nimzo indian please.

  • @martyshwaartz971
    @martyshwaartz971 4 дня назад

    No no everyone says Ding is washed, its a done deal.

  • @gmludovic
    @gmludovic 4 дня назад +115

    use me as a Gukesh winning button

  • @PURAHAN
    @PURAHAN 4 дня назад +1

    Best vid I have watched today.

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад

      best vid you'll watch until i upload again tbh

  • @CallumOKane
    @CallumOKane 4 дня назад +2

    I can definitely predict everything! I gambled 10 million. I did loose it all but at least I made a prediction, which shows you can predict things! Nobody said you had to predict correctly 😡

  • @jennyohara4011
    @jennyohara4011 2 дня назад

    very easy to predict Gukesh easy

  • @VijayThakurMD
    @VijayThakurMD 4 дня назад

    Time to make 200 dollars

  • @jaylenlenear3944
    @jaylenlenear3944 4 дня назад

    what players are known to throw tournaments ? I know players will skip a tournament to hide their prep but never throw.

  • @vaibhavkumar-ql2fw
    @vaibhavkumar-ql2fw 3 дня назад

    Gukesh

  • @sumanraj9394
    @sumanraj9394 4 дня назад +1

    Are you insane?
    "Players are known to throw away tournaments in order to save prep"
    This is the most clown take ive ever heard in relation to chess. Someone who started chess a week ago might say this.
    Give me one example of any era where you saw this happening.
    If players want to save prep then they can play something else, their are 1000's of lines to choose from, why would they purposefully throw tournaments, just use some common sense

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад

      not really an insane take, happens literally every world chess championship and candidates cycle. of course players won’t purposely lose, but they won’t push for wins and end up with mostly draws and an underwhelming performance. there’s a big difference between playing a line you haven’t studied in years, and playing the line you’ve been studying for the last X months.
      in some cases players also commit to tournaments not knowing they would qualify for something else. for example all candidates players schedule their tournaments for after the candidates conclude. the winner of the candidates couldn’t have known they would win beforehand, and therefore has a tournament they would rather not use their main repertoire in.
      fabiano caruana is a good example, he frequently saves his opening preparation for candidates tournaments, he did it most recently in 2022 and 2024.

    • @sumanraj9394
      @sumanraj9394 4 дня назад +1

      ​@@jacksarkisian Well now you are making sense but you literally said the same thing i quoted 3 times in the video
      Saying players performance is underwhelming prior to big tournaments like candidates and world championships is completely different from saying "players are known to throw tournaments in order to save prep". Feels like misinformation

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад

      @@sumanraj9394all good bro i might’ve worded it badly. but yeah i just meant they don’t take the tournament seriously like they normally would & end up with mediocre results.

  • @GuyOnPhilippines
    @GuyOnPhilippines 4 дня назад +2

    I predict Gukesh to win.
    *Sometimes, things that are impossible are actually possible* (It IS possible to predict.)

  • @albybasil1937
    @albybasil1937 4 дня назад +1

    I think it will be a close fight between ding and gukesh but gukesh will win tournament

  • @Day-wm7nn
    @Day-wm7nn 4 дня назад +4

    Gukesh will win and it won't even be close

    • @jacksarkisian
      @jacksarkisian  4 дня назад +2

      i think its 50/50. either Gukesh wins 8 - 2 or something insane, or Ding wins 7.5 - 6.5. no matter which way you spin it though Ding is never going to run away with it imo

  • @CypherOzzie
    @CypherOzzie 2 дня назад

    The WCC is an empty shadow without the GOAT Magnus.
    FIDE have so much need for improvement in running the game.
    Carlsen's 10 TITLES won in 2024:
    🏆 Tata Steel Chess India Blitz
    🏆 Tata Steel Chess India Rapid
    🏆 Julius Baer Generation Cup
    🏆 Speed Chess Championship
    🏆 Norway Chess
    🏆 Casablanca Chess
    🏆 Grenke Classic
    🏆 Warszaw GCT
    🏆 Freestyle Chess
    🏆 Chessable Masters
    Pure dominance.

  • @theNfl_Esq
    @theNfl_Esq 4 дня назад

    Ding doesn’t have a chance

  • @javiercasillas5347
    @javiercasillas5347 День назад

    Ding🫶🏼

  • @HaikuPlays
    @HaikuPlays 4 дня назад

    4 minutes!

  • @timflick2350
    @timflick2350 4 дня назад +1

    No matter who wins that faceoff, we all know Carlson is the true world champion. Neither of them stand a chance across the board from Magnus.

    • @andrey_lifting9021
      @andrey_lifting9021 4 дня назад +2

      I agree. Carlsen is the GOAT of chess... However given that he is unwilling to play for the world champion title, someone has to play right? The world champion match will keep happening whether Carlsen plays or not

    • @MadaraUchiha-iu3ld
      @MadaraUchiha-iu3ld 3 дня назад

      A champion who walks away is no champion. Let him enjoy his speed chess & shuffle chess.

  • @SarpreetSingh-b5o
    @SarpreetSingh-b5o 4 дня назад +3

    first

  • @pratikchessvideos
    @pratikchessvideos 4 дня назад

    31 seconds!!!! first comment pin me

  • @adityapacharne5688
    @adityapacharne5688 4 дня назад

    Good video bro