Lichtman predicted 9 out of 10 elections right: 'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose' | C
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- Опубликовано: 28 апр 2024
- Historian Allan Lichtman, who has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984, joins NewsNation's Chris Cuomo to discuss his thoughts on the 2024 election.
#election #biden #trump
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Didn’t everyone say Hillary was a shoe-in?
Allan Litchman was the only person in the summer of 2016 to predict that Trump would win , when every poll and pundit thought Hilary would win. Even trump wrote him a letter to thank him. He got the 2000 election wrong, bewteen Bush and Gore because his keys back then were used to predict the popular vote winner which Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Since then his keys have been change to reflect the electoral college winner.
This guy didn’t. He actually predicted Trump in the fall when she was leading in the polls.
@@thematt523every poll showed Hillary was leading, but we all saw what happened
A lot would have to go wrong? Take a look around, pal.
Absolutely! It's bad already!
Dude is just like Bill Maher Delusional
it was much worse with Trump. Trump added 8.5. TRILLION DOLLARS to our national debt- that's 25% of our entire national debt- he did it by giving the wealthy a huge permanent tax break and we don't have enough tax money coming in. Trump also ruined the economy because he lied about covid, and our country was then shut down for almost 2 years. trump created the highest unemployment rate in over 50 years, and the less job creation of any previous president. Biden has lowered our national debt by over 1 trillion dollars, Biden passed the very important infa structure bill which gave each state up to 50 billion dollars for roads, and internet- the national union of construction workers now backs Biden. due to Bidenomics our financial growth exceeded the predicited amount, our inflation is LOWER THAN ANY OTHER WESTERN COUNTRY AND HE CREATED MORE JOBS THAN ANY PRESIDENT GIVING US THE LOWEST UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN OVER 50 YEARS. looks like you either have short term memory or you're just ignorant.
@@gatorman2322bill seems to have changed,there’s hope🇺🇸
@@janetcarroll8863 how? Record oil/gas-production at the moment.
The majority of you guys can’t even guess one election so sit down. This guy has consistently guessed elections based on evidence. He’s very smart. You can disagree with politics but not with his reasoning.
What has gone right?
trump will lose
He predicted Trump 2016
A lot has gone wrong Joe.
Who paid this guy ?
i know! Like looking at his keys trump will win
@@stocktondavis5492 If Trump loses then what election was rigged again?
Professor has his RUclips channel, live at 9 on Thursdays 😊
Very interesting interview. Great job on both sides!👍🏻
Social unrest like what I see at the grocery store all the time? 😂 That's REAL social unrest
Socail unrest refers to mast protest across the country for several months like the George Floyyd protests in 2020 or the anti- Vietnam war riots in 1968. The civil unrest that he is referring to are the college campus protest over Israel and Gaza depending on how long they last.
You are clueless as to what real social unrest or grocery shopping is all about.
Gee unlike the racial unrest we saw under trump
The economy is shit. Homelessness is up 70%. Inflation is crippling America. Crime is out of control.
All lies. Check your stats again. Crime is down. Homelessness has and will always be a problem. The economy is not shit. Wages are up and aligning with inflation. If it wasn’t for price gauging there wouldn’t be any inflation.
Factually incorrect. But you know that don't you.
@@DBRising You're in denial. Homelessness is up. Inflation is up. Crime is horrendous. 60% of Americans disapprove of Biden's job performance.
@@sjd283 Not lies. Hard truths. Crime is down on paper because Blue States don't charge or prosecute. Homelessness has gone up 70% since 2021. Inflation is out of control. 60% disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.
@@sjd283😂
In 2016 he predicted dump would win
No dumpty this year
He forgot to mention the 3:00 AM vote key.
Doesn’t his 9 out of 10 correct predictions disprove the 3am vote key concept then?
@@ilmostro16 how does ignoring the truth disprove the truth?
@@ChaseEaglebackignoring what truth? No election interference?
@@ilmostro16No, not at all. He's been wrong before and he can be wrong again.
A lot has go wrong already
The problem is there’s other people who have correctly predicted past elections who say Trump will win. This guy isn’t Nostradamus. He’s just someone who rolled the dice a few times.
He’s always looking for attention.
Sir, good call. Regards, Denis Berte' USMC
Please give me the names of the people who've predicted the last 10.
If Trump wins, we ALL lose
Allan Litchman was the only person to predict Trump will win in 2016, when all of the polls and pundits said that Hilary Clinton will win. He's gotten all of the elections right since he started developing the key system with Regan in the 1980's.
All but 2 or 3 keys depend on who you ask.
Remember hillary was ahead in the polls too.
What value does he assign to each key? Does he add them up at the end?
Each key counts as 1 point for the incumbent or the challenger. There are 13 total keys, and they are marked as True for the incumbent and False for the challenger.
If 8 or more keys are True, then the incumbent wins. If 6 or more keys are False, then the challenger wins.
@@spyroaster5457Thanks!
@@spyroaster5457 So i went though it and Trump has 9 of the 13 so in that case he should win
@@stocktondavis5492 and what keys would those be?
@@stocktondavis5492trump does not have 9 out of 13 keys, he optimistically has 5/13
Right
Good interview Fredo!!!
I really don’t like that guy
😂 Why?
He correctly predicted the Trump 2016 win and the Biden 2020 win. What’s there to not like?
Well he's clearly not paying attention 🤨
Some people believe their own lies.you better do your math
Lol cant handle truth
come back in November and you'll have the 20th key to predictability.
here are my six keys.... 1. Social unrest - protest, 2. Economy - bad gdp, inflation 3. immigration - illegals, 4. Age - gaffe, 5. Black/Hispanic votes shift 6. Political inference - corrupted court system.
7. New wars..
@@ListingLore That too!!
trump increased drone strikes
@@nedmode9412 i think some drone strikes pale in comparison to new regional conflicts. Obama used drones like crazy too, don’t be so short sighted.
@@ListingLore trump is way more pro israel than biden
This Is So Intense 😵, I Don't Know How To Feel About This Election: Angry 😤, Disappointed 😞 Or Happy. ☺
In other words, he has nothing to say, and will predict when pretty much the election is already a certainty
Umm ... more like a lot HAD to go wrong for Biden to win.
Yeah an incompetent Entity in charge...trump.
I wish more people would be aware of RFK jr. Definitely stronger than trump and Biden
A nutcase who doesn’t believe in science. No thanks.
'Stronger. Ya whatever subjective witchery you are projecting is falling flat.
😂😂😂
Agree! @original commenter 115 - he’s amazing. I wish more people would watch all his long form interviews. Especially alll those puppets who say he’s against science cuz their media said so, I’m so so glad I left the left. So many have & his whole campaign is so inspiring when he speaks. It’ll turn anyone onto him if they watch even 3 long form interviews. He’s incredible.
The sad thing is … he’s the nicest, genuine guy in this election. However, I don’t like his policies and he has bad takes on foreign affairs.
RFK just got on the ballot in CA. Bye bye Biden.
RFK has no change so you are a Trumper.
He's not relevant to this election. Anderson got on the ballot in 1980. You don't remember that because you're just a kid but RFK will do like Anderson did. BTW, RFK will only take votes from Trump but it will be too few to matter.
😂😂😂😂😂
Yea!!!🎉🎉🎉😂
RFK TAKES FROM DONALD, NOT BIDEN
To get 9 out of 10 right in trading signals means a fat pocket but I guess Democrats would focus only on the 1 that went wrong
Ross Perot sure got people riled up, didn't he? Still makes me mad just thinking about it.
Perot took a speedboat ride with Michael Jackson. That's his fame claim.
I remember him rescuing hostages. For that, I am grateful. I remember seeing the Shah of Iran once down in TX. Must've been 1979? I was still in high school.
I worked for his company, Electronic Data Systems, at one point. He was a very paternalist company owner. Perot was of of French emigrant ancestry, and they have a tradition of taking good care of their employees. Before he ran for President, he was a feature on the speakers circuits, giving speeches to any group that would hear him. (He required his employees to join Toastmasters International to learn how to give speeches). He spoke a lot of clean cut traditional Americana. I was no longer working for EDS when he ran for President, and I was totally surprised by how vehemently most of the press hated on him right way. It consistently portrayed him as something he definitely was not. This was my first awakening to the fact that 1.) there is a mainstream media and 2.) its is not by any means neutral. He was an independent running against the Republicans and the Democrats, so he got blasted from both sides of the politically affiliated press. I'm just sorry he turned turned out not to have the stomach to stand up to the machine. As I recall it, he dropped out because people whispered in his ear that something was going to happen at his daughter's up coming wedding. So I guess it probably for the best that he dropped out.
People, you have to realize that the early presses in American were named things like "The Atlanta Democrat' and "The Daily Republican.' When the Hersh and other newspaper monopolies came into being, the political affiliations were removed from the names in order to increase market share. But make no mistake, news media has always been, and will continue to be, creatures of political parties.
He was absolutely right about everything. No wonder you are triggered.
@@DBRising How ignorant. He partnered with Steve Jobs to create NeXT, and that was a side venture. He created EDS too, which was very influential in the computer industry.
he thinks gaza is a win for biden???
Chris, I’ve sent a Minnect to Tom and introduced him to Litchman. Please please get him on the PBD show, Bet-David can learn a few things from the professor.
No number on the down-votes. I'll bet that would say a lot.
Good thing a lot has gone wrong
Yes, what more could go wrong but everything and it has. It's already so bad, this guy is in denial...
How does foreign policy success turn against the incumbent ? Is it because they try and fail in foreign policy? Then both keys turn against the incumbent ? So one failure could turn both keys?
The key states that the incumbent president has had a foreign success. And if that is false, that key goes to Trump.
Trump supporters are voting for RFK Jr LOL 🤣
If they’re voting rfk over Trump, that means they’re rfk supporters and not Trump supporters. Duh.
Social unrest key has turned
No. It's mostly college students peacefuly protesting.
@@P.90.603 Have you seen Columbia or NYU? Or UT Austin or UCLA? I’d say this is definitely social unrest.
@@cameronkear5191 That's a very small minority of the country and mostly peaceful protests. Nowhere near the BLM protests that were was long lasting and violent. It's probably going to be be quiet after graduation. Yes, we should keep an eye on it, but the key has not turned.
@@P.90.603 If you turn on your TV you would see that there’s mass civil unrest and will likely get worse by the DNC convention
@@P.90.603they are long lasting and violent. Anti semitism jewelry being attacked in these schools. Those 4 keys in the end will turn against Biden and he will lose . I would look at short term economy with rising inflation
This guy can’t think thru his ridiculous wig. All four of those keys ARE turned.
You must be a great researcher right?
HAHAHAHA
Really, how come Stormy and Karen Mac trysts were ineffective in swinging the pendulum against the Playporn hustler? We had the tapes!
Djt is a danger to the world
"'A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose" - ahhhhhhhh, A LOT is going wrong. What am I missing? Lichtman seemed oddly doubtful. And if what he says is true about keys, Biden shouldn't have taken it from Trump last time. No matter how you slice, no saw Trump winning the first time, keys or no keys, and he is capable of doing it again. Especially if Tulsi is his VP.
Read his book, then post please
Litchman predicted Trump win in 2016
The economy was suffering from a global pandemic and riots swept the nation, of course he lost 2020 according to the model
@@user-oe5eh2qi9sNo thanks.
Trump is beating Biden Nationally, and his lead is growing. Trump is beating Biden in so many areas, like Independents, on the economy, favorability, and Trump is gaining with the youth vote, the black vote, Hispanic vote, etc.
Biden is finally going to be put to pasture....52 years too late. Good riddance
First of all Allan Litchman was the only person to predict that Trump would win the election back in the summer of 2016, when every poll and pundit thought Hilary would win. Even trump wrote him a letter to thank him. He got the 2000 election wrong, bewteen Bush and Gore because his keys back then were used to predict the popular vote winner which Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Since then his keys have been change to reflect the electoral college winner.
Second of all, Trump lost 6 keys in 2020, 1) Party Mandate (Lost the house in 2018 midterms) 2) Civil Unrest (george Floyd protest). 3) Strong short-term economy 4) Long term economy key (the United Staes economy fall into a recession with the Covid lockdowns with millions of Americans becoming unemployed) 5) Charismatic incumbent:(while trump is popular with his base, he was extremely hated by 50% of the country and he his likability rating amoung the public was 40% (candidiates like Reagan and JFK had likability ratings of over 60% and their was little opposition to them by the American public) 6) Scandal Key (impeachment with members of his own party in the senate voting for his impeachment)
Too full of himself…
Alan is geting old. Now he is bought by the media. Nice cash to retire on. He won’t give a flying fuck if he’s wrong. Take the cash and go fishin
Uh yeahhhh. Is this guy living under a rock?
😂😂 I’m sure he was saying “polls don’t matter” in 2020 when Biden was clearly winning. And in 2016, this guy predicted Clinton. 😂
Actually he predicted Trump in 2016 even when Hillary was winning in the polls. Trump even signed him an autograph for saying he got it right
HE IS BEEN RIGHT ONLY ALGORE WHICH REPUBLICANS TOOK IT Y FORCE
Allan Litchman was the only person in the summer of 2016 to predict that Trump would win , when every poll and pundit thought Hilary would win. Even trump wrote him a letter to thank him. He got the 2000 election wrong, bewteen Bush and Gore because his keys back then were used to predict the popular vote winner which Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Since then his keys have been change to reflect the electoral college winner.
Thé fact that you lied tells me how desperate you are
Yea he predicted trump in 2016
🙏❤️🙏❤️🙏❤️🙏
Biden 24
His whole presidency has gone wrong
J6
@@joycewillard7471 probably can’t even spell the month
Anyone else a Republican, see all the hatred against Biden, the trump nostalgia, and still have thinks Biden will win?
He will and donnie will be in jail
Cuomo is nothing but sad
I like president's that HAVEN'T been indicted 🥁💦🌊🌊🌊💪💪🇺🇲
BS, politically driven, opportunistic indictments; but okay
Don't worry, when Trump returns, he will indict all your past hero's Biden, Clinton and Obama for serious federal crimes. Turn around is fair play.
Trump will win I'm the end
You could care less -everyone knows these shams are politically motivated.
He was my freshman history professor. Loved this guy. All about the facts
Profesor mone
mr juice didn't mention jenocide. it matters
3:55
Lichtmen if a fraud. When he is right he takes credit, when he is wrong he says “i was actually right because of the popular vote”. By using excuses like that he is always right.
what not cheat
Anyone but biden 2024
Your 401k begs to differ.
@@DBRising
RFK baby!!🎉🎉🎉
I voted for Trump last two times this year voting for RFK Jr. I'm a republican in AZ my vote will make a difference. We need someone other then these two. RFK not perfect better then those two.
Only Biden
What he said.
is dumb.
Trump supporters hate Allen Litchman..but Allan is right!
I just read his book. WOW
In the end he'll call it for Trump. Those 4 keys will turn against Biden
@@user-bl3vk8qc6h
Maybe, but unlikely.
Social unrest is very difficult to flip. It has to feel like the fabric of the nation is tearing apart. Most Americans don’t put the Israel-Hamas war as their top issue, not even close really.
Historically, third party candidates lose steam overtime as the campaign goes on. If RFK doesn’t poll above 10% sometime around August, this means that key won’t flip. Also, he pulls from both parties, so his influence might be overstated anyways.
I do think he’s going to lose both foreign policy keys but the short term economy key will barely lean his direction (every incumbent who’s won short and long term economy has won).
Trump better hope college kids protesting don’t decide to just go home during the Summer after Spring classes end. He also needs to hit RFK harder over his policies.
They didn't hate him in 2016 when he correctly predicted a Trunp win! 🤣
@@Natedawgg84 That's why I don't get along with Republicans. Allan Litchman predicted Trump would win in 2016...and Biden in 2020....yet they still gotta talk sht.
I will bet him right now.
He didn't mention the scandal key. Surely, that one's already fallen.
the Scandal key refers to impeachment. Biden has not been impeached by house republicans
Nope. He said it has not fallen.
@@TheRussianWookie Well, there is a mountain of evidence accrued by Congress to indicate otherwise. The problem is that mainstream media are batting for Biden and don't report the truth (or they distort it). This problem does not get factored into his calculation of deciding who will win; nor does election fraud.
Dems need a new candidate now
If i had to vote for anyone, I'd pick neither Biden or Trump. RFK Jr. All the way.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣
Desapoimen
A lot is already going wrong for Biden, and the country, and Americans.
Only because your cult leader says it is. I know what you will say in November it was rigged
not really...we're def better off!!
It doesn't matter what anyone says, believes etc. If Biden is reelected our country is gone. If Trump is elected it's going to be a shit show, but better policies enacted.
you apparently don't know Trump ADDED 8.5 TRILLION dollars to our national deficit- that's 25% of the total deficit. Trump ruined the economy by lying about w covid . Biden has created more jobs than any other president. he also lowered our inflation to the LOWEST OF ANY WESTERN COUNTRY. our economic growth is 2 points higher than predicted, Biden passed the infa structure bill giving each state 50 Billion dollars for roads , bridges and internet, he aslso passed the chips act insuring computer chips are made here- trump talked about infa structure, but did NOTHING. Trump attempted a coup.
😂😂 Biden kept most of Trump’s policies in place. You goofball. Trump wants to end our democracy as his lawyers make the case to our Supreme Court.
🎯
The only reason you think Trumps last term was a shit show was because the media kept telling you it was.
War after war and more war. That is a shit show.
@@ThePhoenixcompanies guess you don't remember when 3000 American died every day from covid while trump was lying and trying to deny covid was dangerous.
I am from Iowa, and going to vote for President Joe Biden!! AGAIN!! 💙
Wow. It's pretty brave to admit to voting for such a colossal disaster.
Why?!'he"s been a total disaster!!!!
Why?Are better off now? Or getting Free benefits? Not working?
He doesn't believe a word he said here today. The Democratic party is split in 2 , this election is over.
Trump 24
And then there's the octopus choosing the food in the red or blue box.
😂😅🤣😂🤣😅😂🤣😅😂🤣😂😅😂🤣😂🤣😅😂😂😅 Copying.
RFK ALL THE WAY 🇺🇸
Wow this professor may have predicted 9 out of 10, I truly believe that we’re an uncharted waters right now. Nothing I believe he’s ever seen in his work career or lifetime. I am also almost 80 years old, retired from law, and a studied politics for over 50 years. You have to think about this absolutely reasonable, what most people say is even the seniors and the young folks, but mostly the seniors they have never in their lifetime ever experienced anything like this and of course the super seniors who went through the great depression, I’ve never seen anything like this before as well. I believe that Biden is totally incompetent and he’s ill. I believe that the strings are being pulled by other directions and of course you can tell when he’s reading the Teleprompter. Biden needs to retire, if not you will see a vice president turning into a president and then going into something that would be totally catastrophic within our country. Even if you did not like Trump, he may be able to turn things around the next four years. My understanding is that maybe somebody can learn from a previous experience, and I believe that Donald Trump has learned a lot in his four years as president, but I will say one thing, didn’t experiencing anything as we are right now. I’m gonna say that 80% of my family is experiencing some massive hardships due to the high cost of inflation and probably the most scary part about it is most of my family is experiencing housing security. I HOPE THIS GENTLEMAN BATS EIGHT OUT OF 10 BECAUSE I DO FEEL THAT WE ARE IN AN AREA OF TIME AND SPACE IN THE UNITED STATES THAT IS THE MOST CRITICAL AND UNEXPERIENCED TIME OF OUR LIFE. THREATS FROM OTHER NATION AND THE INFILTRATION OF UNVETTED PEOPLE AT THE SOUTHERN BORDER IT’S CRITICAL.
Allan Litchman was the only person in the summer of 2016 to predict that Trump would win , when every poll and pundit thought Hilary would win. Even trump wrote him a letter to thank him. He got the 2000 election wrong, bewteen Bush and Gore because his keys back then were used to predict the popular vote winner which Gore won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. Since then his keys have been change to reflect the electoral college winner.
@@IronAxel6 well I hope he’s wrong in this case.
“Wrong”
@@artortega7230 curious what is wrong
RFK JR!!! 2024!!! Our hope!!!❤Let's make it happen!🦅🇺🇸🦅
I like my presidents to respect microbiologists, immunologists, and all healthcare workers.
😂😂😂
@@bellda9042 ☺️
Is this guy on Rexukti too?🤯
i will lay 6-5 odds that trump wins
Yea, a lot have already gone wrong and it is going to exacerbate
Kennedy 🎉2024🇺🇸❤️
President Trump 2024 🇺🇲😊
Biden president against 2024❤
Biden 🇺🇸💙
Now he would be predicting 9/11 elections right.
But…. A lot of things have gone wrong?
RFK 2024!
Another reason I kept pulling for the GOP to dump Trump and nominate someone who didn’t suck
Social unrest? How is that "key" not already turned? If it's any more unrestful here, we'd have civil war. This guy is obviously just promoting himself by building up a fake suspense. The keys are turned.
RFK Jnr is a Russian asset
GOVERNANCE?
I voted for the first time in 1956. I know how Americans vote. Culture has drastically changed several times but there are still several basics that haven't changed when it comes to Election Day voting. The 1960s was a divided nation. The biggest riots in American history that decade. Nothing since then compares. The massive political division the US went through in the 60s & so much more. The only thing today that compares is the great political division.
Lichtman is right on a lot of things & yes, Biden will win but Biden is likely to only win with 271 electoral votes. It's going to look very close & of course, Trump with his MAGA will be screaming rigged & stolen worse than ever.
Biden will win GA, PA, WI & likely MI. Trump's going to take AZ & NV. NY is going to be a lot closer looking this time too but Biden wins it of course. Biden will have trouble though because voters do not like him. They don't like the inflation which he gets blamed for even though, this took 24 years to happen. Republicans will get a 53 seat majority in the Senate & they will gain seats in the House. Both parties better get ready to agree on things in 2025 because Americans are sending a divided government to DC. If Republicans in Congress don't behave, Biden will veto everything. If Biden doesn't behave, Congress won't pass anything! America will be better off with divided government for a couple years. It will give more time for them to grow up again.
RFK ALL THE WAY!!! Look him up!
Did. Nah
@@Mike_HuntizWet Did not.
He's nuts, even his family thinks he is.
@@tansywelsh1636 No they don't.
So much yapping
Ridin with Biden 💙🇺🇸
Biden has also been a GREAT President! THAT should count!!!
RFK would be better though.
Are you living under a rock? Open your eyes! Criminals are coming through the border, crime is out control, the economy is in the toilet, Biden even somehow managed to anger both sides of the Isreal-Hamas war. Get your facts straight.
How has biden been a great president?!😂😂😂😂😂
The keys literally favor Trump. How Lichtman views the keys is super biased.
Nope
This will be a failed prediction.
We need Trump man
Fjb there's no fucking way in hell he wins they cheated last time had to.
Biden Harris 2024! 💙💙💙