Tesla's Milestones to 6 Billion Miles!
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- Опубликовано: 14 май 2024
- Brian White @4kpodcast (host of FutureAza on RUclips)
/ @futureaza
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Website: www.herbertong.com
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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Herbert
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
The professionals presently control the market since they not only have the essential business strategy but also have access to inside information that the general public is not aware of.
@@KatheyWilliams-kh3wr The reason I decided to work closely with a brokerage adviser ever since the market got really tense and the pressure became so much(I should be retiring in 17months) so I've had a brokerage adviser guide me through the chaos, its been 9months and counting and I've made approx. 650K net from all of my holdings.
@@EleanorLavin How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
@@DavidCline-zk7jw Sure. She goes by ‘Kristin Gail Cunningham’. Just research the name.
@@EleanorLavin Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible.
Tesla is kicking ass
Legacy failed at the BEV transition and now they're trying to fail at the self-driving transition.
If legacy fails at BEV transition what would be their chance to transition to Self Driving?
Nada…Nil.
It still needs to learn about school zones, at least in Oregon. The flashing yellow lights change the speed limit to 20mph.
other than that, I'm quite impressed.
I've seen in other states FSD will go so fast through school zones that locally, it would be reckless driving (3 points on record, a $2k+ fine, a huge increase in insurance, and for those < 18 years, revocation of the license). I have also seen FSD blow through stop signs. While not perfect, I believe it is already safer than people drivers.
Remember, 85% of drivers think they are above average drivers. The majority shouldn't be on the road.
@@External2737 I had to go to driving school in the '80s and the instructor asked: "who thinks they are an above average driver" every male hand in the room went up. most of the women too, but every single male (who was in driving school for getting a ticket) raised their hand.
This is video three from Herbert today talking about pretty much the exact same thing….
You and Brian White together are a twin power house. When you two get together, there is no bullshit and your presentation of facts and your analysis is, really, head and shoulders above any other commentary. Brilliant. You both should consider doing a joint RUclips channel. THANK YOU!
Thanks Tom! We already do 5 videos together each week across our channels, so we pretty much already have that.
@5:25 The speed of the rollouts is not surprising in the least.
*Tesla* no longer needs to change the _inference engine,_ the sensory map, nor the control map. These make up the vehicles' _EGO._
Only the *_knowledge base_*_ deltas_ need updating as the vehicles _learn_ new ways to drive that are demonstrably better than the previous way.
I have been using FSD for 12 days and while it is impressive I have to take control at least twice every time I use it. This is a long way from safer than a human driver.
Need to take control for safety reasons or to move it along?
Even Chuck Cook just had to disengage 2 times in 1 minute for safety reasons at his famous corner.
Technically he only disengaged once, but he should have done it twice, since it was really unsafe.
@@scotttisdale2773 these were safety reasons. Almost driving the wrong way on a street, coming up on a stopped car too fast, along with the stopping for no reason in an intersection.
Herbert, we absolutely do know. At least on 12.3.3 hand signals are ignored. I drive my kids daily to school. There is a crossing guard there, and the car absolutely ignores her hand signals in every way, whether she walks out or stands on the side. Also our Costco always has a cop directing traffic, so I have many many opportunities for it to work in my weekly routines. It does not currently do so for me. I thanked Dirty Tesla for that thorough test because people were getting confused. There could be some unique edge case behavior or coincidence, of course. I have 12.3.4 now and I will know within a week.
"Absolutely love it" Brian.
I love putting onus back on old / no tech recalcitrants - meat bag drivers.
The take rate for new subscriptions to FSD how much is that in correlation to sold Tesla cars . Would nice to know . I mean the revenue they get from FSD
@18:54 The take rate will parallel the _vaccination_ take rate as people realize that *FSD* is *_exactly_* like inoculating your EV against accidents.
The safer the _vehicle herd_ is the safer any one _vehicle_ is.
With newly announced $99 subscription fee this should help getting to 6B sooner.
Cheers guys
Insurance companies will force legislation eventually. When it comes to wheeled transportation, humans will be restricted to scooters.
Re: Vans, passenger vans, small trucks and small vans are all major huge segments outside the US.
How can I find the best deal on a used model Y with FSD?
Tesla website has used vehicles, and the FSD feature is prominent on the listings
Why is there such a delay on new model 3 rw with white interior?
I don't know, but I LOVE my Y white interior. It's worth the wait 😁
Does FSD have a valid world model? Using imitation to train the neural network is not enough to make FSD safer than a human driver. I would love to hear what is actually inside of FSD now, not just the continual reference to 6 Billion miles, and more compute power, but rather how does FSD view the world.
@12:21 Regulatory approval will depend on whether the *Innovation Acceptance Model* of the regulatory body is permissive or restrictive.
I expect problems only in the *EU* where they'll count your nose hairs before they let you breathe.
@7:55 The regulators are doing their jobs if *_everybody_* makes it home alive. Even better if nobody gets hurt. Even better if nothing gets broken.
If making OEMs license *FSD* is going to do that, then that's what they'll do.
Regulators *_hate_* reports of fatalities, injuries, and damages from automotive accident.
Brian,you might be the only one to help with delivery problems. WTH
I meant to say if you know why there is such a long wait for delivery? Hope there not going the way of GM and the Lyriq.
Tesla got to stop screwing about. They've got a two million dual processor distributed NN cluster available 8 hours a night for free in North America alone.
My opinion is that it will take 20 billion miles to really develop and prove out FSD. 2*10^10 miles. So let us say Tesla can get 2 million to sign up for FSD or 2*10^6. 2*10^10/2*10^7 is 1*10^4 or 10,000 miles. Or just under a year. Another year to get the regulatory improvement. I agree the pace of improvement is high. Forget banning human drivers. Eventually the differential cost of insurance between FSD and "Level 0" will force the transition.
So if run rate is, 5 million km per day it means the fsd km is 2 billion per year so fsd will accumulate tha 10 billion km in 5 years time meaning we might have robotaxi in 2029
You aren’t counting new cars on the road.
@@scotttisdale2773 how many miles can be covered by one car per day so that we can make the estimations when robotaxi will be reached?
I think they will get 2 million cars. In miles, that would be 20 to 26 billion per year. I personally think 20 billion is the real number of miles needed and then a year to get it out.
But it takes cheap FSD (possibly cheaper than today's $99/mo) and more Teslas on the road. While the later is happening, it is a rate. I believe the fraction taking up FSD will increase with each generation. Eventually, insurance will charge for not having it.
So many requirements increases the cost and prices lower income people out of the market therefore unable to get a job. Safety is great, but it's pointless if it means you can't drive at all.
Regulatory approval in the US has one huge problem... the major automakers are so far behind. Only way they can even be in the game is to buy Mobileye or someone else's application or some feeble in-house solution -- at which point, the standards for all will be set to the lowest denominator to ensure the Big Three don't completely lose out. Ford's 'Blue Cruise' is an example -- it was crap when it was allowed hands-free operation. 6 billion miles or equivalent and/or 10x safer also won't be regulated for the same reason.
7 states have already have laws permitting robotaxis, and others have frameworks in place to launch once the tech is there.
Why has Tesla given up on solar?
Go back to sleep and let the grownups talk
We need more than just regulatory approval. When companies like Tesla and Tesla insurance take responsibility for system crashes, it will be a field day for bottom feeding lawyers bringing absurd law suits. Perhaps litigation protection that would fairly compensate occupants of cars that meet the high standards set for autonomous vehicles could also shield against outlandish suits and awards. It could also encourage adoption of available technology by all companies. It is impossible to quantify the relative safety of autonomous cars since it has to quantify avoided incidents without using statistics. From my expeience, Judges and Juries do not deal well with statistics!
Governments are the most danger to human life
fsd 구매 소식 좀 전해봐요. 좋다고만 하지 말고.
Hello guys this will be great if the funkimg government don't start crying about it
Wow Toyota 😂
They are learning from Mary’s leadership.
@@NoWastedCalories Barra
Herbert, as a bull, your bullishness is too much. It makes you seem disconnected from reality. Calm down a touch.
Always the same arguments 🥱