America’s Big Chipmaking Blunder
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- Опубликовано: 30 апр 2024
- ASML is behind what’s arguably the most important technology in the world right now: extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Without these $200 million EUV machines and the semiconductors they make, there’d be no artificial intelligence revolution and the global economy would begin to slow. While the machines made in the Netherlands are sold mostly to companies in Taiwan and South Korea - TSMC and Samsung - Intel was very late to the game. The US government meanwhile under both Donald Trump and Joe Biden has been scrambling to ensure none of the machines are sold to China.
Read more on Bloomberg:
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Chapters:
00:00 Introduction
00:50 What is extreme ultraviolet lithography?
03:02 Early research in the United States
04:44 Intel’s strategic mistake
05:36 Huawei sparks China worries
07:00 The CHIPS Act and US recovery
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What society needs is lab chips in everyones hands why isnt there a case for my phone or a camera on my phone made to take close up shots of something on like a glove or swab
light can tell us alot just bouncing it off substances can tell us how dense the material is to reflection speed and distortions to sound waves why isnt there one of these yet to tell me how many calories are in my food
They're building a water intensive process in Arizona where droughts and water supply are a big risk. Colossal mistake after colossal mistake.
After spending 20 years as a salaried manager in corporate America I can truly say that management is the root of Americas lack of innovation. The majority of managers are focused on meetings, talking on the phone, and working on networking (talking to people for no reason).
Re: "Boeing" spindown
1000%
Very well said, especially woke companies who hire inefficient loud mouth employees who only talk but can’t walk the walk.
AI can do all middle and upper management functions, talking, right now,
but all the chatter is about AI controlled robots replacing blue collar workers and lower management/supervisory that require hands on physical presence.
Entirely agreed. I used to work in a US company. The team had a meeting of 1 hour every day at 9:30am. Yet, After 5 years, a team of 15 people could not develop a simple electro-mech device, and could not design a gasket correctly (after 5 years of trial, still leaking). Amazing and insane.
The two brightest flames of US advanced manufacturing (Intel and Boeing) have recently made such massive and historic missteps in the last decade. It's really sad.
Probably due to short term stock returns thinking
Same thing happened with Kodak, short term thinking, even though they invented the digital camera.
Except that Intel never was in the business of building lithography machines.
Intel will never beat TSMC. Maybe they can Samsung because of Intel a semiconductor company but not TSMC
But they have paid the most bonuses to c suite executives ever thanks to rewarding short term large profits by eating the companies seed corn.
The real reason the US and all western nations missed out on this wave is because corporate heads wanted to produce their products in a cheap environment to maximize profits. Now all of the supply chains and the skilled workers are in Asia.
There are plenty of skilled and mature workers here. Companies won't even consider an application unless you have masters degree.
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼
@@billwendell6886plenty is a comparatives ammount, and "plenty" when compared to asia, is the wrong adjective
Suddenly capitalism bad 😭
@@billwendell6886 Then TSMC in Arizona should have no problem filling the job openings, right?
Intel: spends $4bn developing the tech but doesn't want to spend $0.2bn buying even a single development unit to use the tech
the US spends billions in making EUV lithography became available, give it to a private US firm just for it to be bought by the dutch
Well if you look at the graph, it would make sense why. They thought they had the superior technology, for a couple of years, up until EUV overtook the market.
@@AutoDisheep And guess what; China has been begging USA to give the keys to the kingdom to them. What this video failed to mention is that, without CURRENT cooperation of the USA, ASML can't produce the machine. The necessary software and changes comes from... USA. Without USA ASML would crash.
@@AutoDisheep The graph shows you only that they were ahead, NOT that they had the best technology. They clearly didn't. Regardless, market lead doesn't depend just on one factor.
@@AutoDisheep they thought they had the monopoly so if they don't buy it they would still be ok.
This is what happens when a stock price/profit focused CEO controls a tech company.
bean counters.. they know how to count
Not even bean counters, they identify with the stockholder instead of with the company they run. Then all the line managers and accountants are forced to make line go up, instead of resourcing their staff to let them do their job.
What happens when tech companies decide that they can exploit workers better in Taiwan because it has laxer labor laws.
Any company, look at Boeing.
That's every CEO
Morris Chang, the founder of TSMC was a director at Texas Instruments, he was passed up for promotions to less capable peers and saw the glass ceiling for ethnic Chinese. He went back to Taiwan to set up TSMC and the rest was history.
Qian Xuesen, a cofounder of the Jet Propulsion Lab, was accused of being a communist in the 1950's, got arrested and deported, had to escape to China, he then set up their rocket program and the rest was history.......
Sweet sweet vengeance for prejudice
@@lzl4226 So maybe he was a communist, lol if you weren't the last place you'd think to escape to would be 1950s Maoist mainland China in the midst of it's aggressive persecution of counter-revolutionaries. That fact by itself already proves that the accusations were more than likely truthful, and that the Americans were probably saved from further industrial espionage. Looking it up he was also named in documents from the US communist party and sidestepped questions regarding his allegiance to the US, I praise his honesty in pointing out that his allegiances primarily lied with the people of mainland China, but i also understand why the USA would have a problem with one of their premier scientists having such deep ties to an enemy state, both geopolitically and ideologically.
Worth pointing out that Qian ended up being one of the primary supporters of all the ridiculous nonsense the CCP has done, from the Cultural Revolution to the Great Leap Forward, to Tiananmen, to calling Deng Xiaoping a "counter-revolutionary"
One can argue this was all put on so that the CCP allowed him and his family to thrive in China, but i'm not 100% sure if it wasn't there all along
Where did you find that statement? Afaik Chang moved to Taiwan after being recruited by the ROC and having been impressed with the progress of Japanese electronics leading him to believe America was falling behind, which was a general perception most people had in the mid 80s
After TI he even became the President and COO of General Instrument and before that was Vice-President of TI's semiconductor business before that, which is the highest role you can reach unless the President quits or gets fired.
That's not someone being deliberately discriminated against, just someone stuck in a semiconductor role in a company that wasn't that heavily invested in Semiconductors and feeling like he needed to move somewhere else to have a bigger impact
TI never really thought of Semiconductors as their primary business. Chang tried to change that, but they remained focused on hardware devices and calculators rather than semiconductor production, leading to his departure to General Instrument and shortly after to Taiwan on invitation by the ROC's president to run their state-sponsored Industrial Technology Research Institute, an opportunity few would pass because nothing is as secure and bottomless as state funds.
Source? Nothing out there including himself shows that there was discrimination against him as the cause.
ASML had the forsight to buy the US company who pioneered EUV. Intel could have bought it. Applied Materials could have bought it. None thought it was worth the effort.
ASML makes lithography machines for chip making. Applied makes other chip manufacturing machines not lithography. Intel buys those machines to make chips. ASML was the most natural company to buy EUV LLC. Next options would be Nikon & Canon.
Obsession on short term profits is really counterproductive.
TSMC invested in ASML.
Cheaper wages overseas, that is made it profitable.
Slava TSMC 🇹🇼
What US did to Japanese semiconductor industry is really disgusting….RIP Toshiba Semiconductor
better than what US did to Huawei, kidnapping their Daughter to force surrender.
It was Chinese Presidne
As a person who used to work in the semiconductor industry for decades: In a society that only believes in laissez-faire capitalism, it's only corporate profits that matters. That leads to all sorts of out-sourcing to increase corporate profits. Everything moves to cheaper locations that can do the work. Other issues like national (or world) security & stability don't mean much to corporations who are slaves to their quarterly returns.
Its also only short term profits that matter in a late stage capitalist system. They executives don't need to worry if the company is still around in 20 years, because they will only be there for 5.
Looks like this tide is breaking. Both Trump and now the Dems are working on this. (FT video on inflation reduction).
@@deemey95Not untrue, but it’s not only the executives who are at fault. It seems like that’s how the entire structure is built, with relatively short, short term gains having such a disproportionate incentive over longer term (and riskier) promises of return.
I don’t know a thing about why this Intel CEO made the decision he did, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility he acted upon the information he had at the time. And if I were to be rewarded, both at the corporate level and the personal, with a large stash of cash in a so-called short term, I’d have done the same thing…who wouldn’t??
Also, what’s considered a safer, short term perspective might not have seemed ‘short’ at the time…at least not from our hindsight view now. Maybe he did fk up, but this seems like a common theme amongst all kinds of American industries and companies. To me, this points more to a major flaw in the regulation of our capitalist market system. I just have no idea what the solution could be, much less even know exactly what the flaw is.
its not about moving the manufacturing elsewhere, thats always going to happen. Its that the American company that was actually making chips (both in US and abroad) made the decision to not move forward with with the new techonology because their corporate management didn't think it would be more profitable and were extremely wrong about it. They were handed revolutionary technology paid for by the US taxpayers and said no, our MBAs think we can make marginally more profits without it. It was a bad decision for Intel and bad for U.S.
@@deemey95yup. there's even a term for this phenomenon... IBGYBG decisions - "I'll be gone, you'll be gone" by the time the real impact of our actions happen.
Regarding the chip shortage:
For 4 years, I worked at a Texas-based semiconductor fabrication plant. (DUV and I-line)
Our fab has been running 24/7 all throughout the pandemic.
The bottleneck problem is, all 300mm wafers have to be put on a train, then a cargo ship or a plane, shipped to either China, Taiwan, Philippines, Japan, South Korea and Malaysia to be cut, then put into their final chip form, then sent back the the US, where they have to be redistributed, then installed wherever they are needed.
Some are even installed on their circuit boards after this process, due to the circuitry ALSO being created overseas.
There is no facility in the US, that can do this final process in a high capacity scale, nor plans to do this, because it’s cheaper to outsource to other countries.
Not forgetting the fact that the machinery needed to do these complicated procedures, are all patented and built by Asian and Norwegian countries.
Now, think about it pragmatically;
If your country was just getting back to work from the pandemic, who do you think they would prioritize? Themselves or US (who had a president that downplayed Covid, blamed China for it in the first place AND by proxy, caused horrible crimes against citizens of any and all, Asian decent) ?
I say that only because right after we had gotten shipments caught up after Trumps “tariff war” debacle (which is a tax that WE, the consumers pay) then we got hit by the pandemic.
Once gain, we were having to store excess wafers due to the supply chain being backed up. We have $millions of dollars worth of chips that are STILL waiting to be sent overseas, finalized, then sent back.
(Then you have factors such as excess shipping containers that are overcrowding Asian and US ports, making organization more difficult, a decrease in truck drivers, the occasional container that falls off the ship in a storm, excess fuel costs slowing down distribution, etc. Some higher end chips are flown over on cargo planes, which has also increased costs due to fuel and pilot shortages.)
Y’all want faster chip production?
Find a way to move final chip production stateside!!!
I left that industry after witnessing poor management and poor future planning.
_who do you think they would prioritize?_
I don't blame them for having a China First policy.
_downplayed Covid, blamed China for it in the first place_
They're responsible. And we shouldn't look the other way, simply because that was in our temporary best interest.
_after Trumps “tariff war” debacle (which is a tax that WE, the consumers pay)_
In the short term, yes. But again, simply short term thinking is what is doing long term damage to our economy. Not only has Biden left in place Trump's tariffs on some $300 billion of Chinese goods; this week, he threatened to triple a 7.5% tariff rate on China steel and aluminum to 25%. So if you're not in favor of Trumps tariffs, Biden will possibly triple-down on it.
I don't think that the politicians have the long term vision to do that and the corporations in the US that own the politicians are only interested in the short term profit.
Costa Rica is working on becoming a leader in microchip packaging. That should fill the hole without being too far away (short ship journey).
@@korakys
Is Costa Rica in the U.S.? No.
Are they closer? Yes.
Political upheaval from neighboring Central American countries have been known to block, or even, commandeer cargo ships during civil unrest. (These countries still don’t like the U.S. because of the comments made by the last president)
Then there’s the other factors:
Ships are getting bigger. Yes.
Yet the maintenance budget on them is required to somehow… be cheaper than the small ships… to turn a better profit for the ship owner.
These shipping companies pay ZERO taxes to our country, because they fly flags of convenience.
Ships still sink from time to time. Who pays for it if they are under insured? (Which is most of them) Litigation for these disasters can take decades.
Ships can block canals. (Or take out bridges)
Harbors get delayed with union strikes and worker shortages.
Prices for shipping fuel keeps going up; that translates to more consumer costs. (The company shifts that off of themselves)
Why can’t we just agree that the best course of action, is to bring full chip production, state-side?
When the Chips Act passed, TI was already paying for the expansion of a Malaysian facility. The Chips Act does not allow that money to go towards foreign countries.
So… rather than future proof our country, it was decided to outsource, well, everything.
Not even the Chrysler 300/Dodge Charger/Dodge Challengers, are made in the U.S.
Every single one of those “American Muscle Car” models were stamped, forged and assembled in Ontario, Canada.
America first time experiencing how it is when they make an advancement and don't capitalize on it, lol
As a German or European, this unfortunately sounds very familiar
What country are you talking about when you say America?
No, our first time was during manifest destiny where the government was giving super cheap land to anyone willing to populate the western and southern fronts. Then when they realized they were running out of space to declare land for the state, they began pretending like that never happened.
@@salecousin5470 The United States. We just call it America here.
@@usurpvision That defies all logic
As a Taiwanese involved in semiconductor industry, 5:24 is a very misleading interpretation.
Intel has a very different business model than TSMC. It’s a very consumer-facing company, doing both designing and manufacturing. Its profit ties heavily on its capability on launching new product to the market.
TSMC only specializes in manufacturing and doesn’t launch any product. You can even say that TSMC’s chip design capability has fallen behind Intel for at least 50 years, in the sense that it doesn’t design its chip at all.
Intel trades part of their chip manufacturing capability to chip design business. The differences in business model shouldn’t be interpreted as what the video intended it to be.
They dont really care avout Taiwanese interest. All they care is getting you to do the hard work from which they can profit
@@KC-vx7gj They literally made taiwan one of the richest countries per capita in asia.
@@AL-lh2htNo, they made California the richest country in North America.
@@user-fq5vl3fl1bCalifornia isn’t a country
@@typicalgamer5560 Whoosh
Bloomberg is interviewing itself these days?😂😅
But they always have Great content...high quality picture too
I thought the same thing: "We get our information from our sources, which source from sources we've paid to source."
😅😅
I don't care for all the industry leading talking heads they bring on anymore.
@@ahilltodieons they don’t pay to source. Lazy comment
The US really woke up late. ASML bought a stake in the Zeiss subsidiary that makes these crazy mirror focusing systems. ASML only paid a billion dollars for that share. Even just a billion can do great things if you know how to spend it.
Yea, any discussion about EUV without mentioning the 10 years of development and Zeiss is, imo, BS.
Just a billi ..no biggie 😂😂😂
@@mikemuponda1781 A billie that could end up as a return on investment as a Trillie. lol.
It is pretty crazy. The facility that pioneered lithography, developing the technology from a patent to commercial use, did it through a US air force program in the 60’s. That facility later became part of EUV LLC and was purchased by ASML. Most of the challenges faced by EUV were solved in US-based labs.
@@mikemuponda1781A billion dollars buys you like 2.6 Twinscan EXE:5000 lithography machines from ASML.
Intel didn't use EUV because they tried to advance past 14nm but got stuck big time, but were too proud to switch tack and either buy from TSMC, or adopt EUV because unlike smartphone ARM chips where smaller nodes mean big power savings and longer battery life, x86 desktop/server chips doesn't need to be that power efficient at higher cost and lower profits. And also because they were facing minimal competition from AMD so could afford to get stuck for years, that is until AMD fought back with Zen/Epyc. If Zen/Epyc didn't exist Intel might still be on 14nm.
👌👌👌👍👍👍
We aren't talking about consumer grade chips, the fact you don't get that shows you like to speak about things you don't understand
Power efficiency is important in any chip, doesnt matter, if you have your personal powerplant for it. Less power consumption means less heat density, so you can cool it with a simple radiator instead of liquid nitrogen and have more cores on higher clock speed.
"server chips doesnt need to be power efficient"
Just stop.
I think you mean tack not tact.
We privatize profits and socialize costs in this country. It's not surprising that Government Sponsored Research results and support for technology gets sold out, the same way we offshore manufacturing. Another self inflicted injury.
Maybe we should consider socializing profits too.
The us is literally the leader in terms of advancing tech and science.
all countries subsized their major industries. Also those "privatize profits" gets taxed.
TSMC first overtook intel in 2016 at the 10nm node, which wass done without EUV. TSMC's first 7nm in 2018 (similar to Intel's old 10nm) was also done without EUV.
EUV wasn't the biggest reason intel fell behind, but why it stuck on 14nm without back up plan for so long still puzzles me to this day.
U become a villain
CPU profit margin is not that high and Intel was not in mobile business (cell phone) that needed the low power chips. Apple was willing to pay anything to make it, as it doesn't make money off chip but off the phones and ecosystem (software, icloud, etc). Intel miscalculated that they were only competing with other companies making chips instead of phones and ecosystem money.
@@maggiejetson7904 not sure what that has to do with getting stuck on 14nm
You're half right. Intel thought they could skip 10nm density on desktop (go from 14 to 7) while staying on DUV. They did it, but it took 4-5 years too long.
@@concinnus which 7nm are you referring to? the "Intel 7" node we know today??
That was known as intel's "10nm node" before a marketing name change to make it sound like a similar class node to TSMC/Samsung. The current "intel 4" node was actually their former 7nm. I am referring to the old 10nm in my comment.
the fact is intel tried to migrate from 14nm to 10nm(intel 7) with no success for 7+ years and they did not try to skip it....
I spent over 25 years at Intel and I have a slightly different perspective. Intel has a "copy exactly" philosophy when it comes to their fabs. All are identical. Intel simply couldn't get enough EUV machines to handle their leading edge capacity needs and they couldn't run different versions of their process in different fabs. So they chose to use a different lithography technique across all fabs. It's called multi patterning and it didn't work so well. Their mistake was in not running what's called a small "boutique" process line to get experience with EUV until they could get sufficient machines. Also the chips TSMC was making were much smaller is size and therefore they could take the hit of lower yields. The smaller the die the higher the yield at a given defect density. So they could get up to speed faster and still ship volume to their customers. It was a hard lesson for Intel but I think they are on their way back to process leadership. Only time will tell.
Intel has and always had "boutique" and not so "boutique" labs running all sorts of experiments. Some fruitful, others not. Management just made the wrong decision at the time, that's all.
Multi-patterning has been around for years, and most companies are doing it. It pre-dates mass produced EUV by several years. I think you guys started using it with the 14nm node, which far pre-dates EUV which was first used by Samsung for the 7nm node. It's also used a lot for NAND as well.
On the Intel side, EUV was first introduced with Intel 4 (formerly 7nm). Whether there were discussions about using it for 10nm (aka Intel 7) I don't know. But reports that have leaked over time about the difficulties (and the 10nm being close to 5 years late) seem to indicate that they were being too aggressive in scaling as well as the issues surrounding the use of cobalt for some layers instead of the traditional liner + copper. I'm sure management and spending didn't help, but it kinda seemed like you guys had ran yourself into a hole and had to just keep digging.
As someone that works for a semi equipment maker, I can tell you CE! definitely has been slowing down Intel's progress for decades. We freely share the latest advancements with Intel's competitors such as TSMC, Samsung, but couldn't do so with Intel due to CE! A lot of times we won't even discuss these changes with Intel due to the fear of something getting locked into CE! and freeze our supply chain.
@@mintheman7 What is CE! ?
@@portalminer8813 Copy Exact is usually shortened to CE! in documents, surprise you didn’t know that after working for Intel.
Nothing like government funding when capitalism needs to win
I hope you are being sarcastic
It is a poison that creates soporific failures.
Like China right?
@@chadgarcia983Who do you think china learned from?
@@chadgarcia983 Is China Capitalist?
"One atom thin layers"...wow. Human tech is inching towards the physically possible?
Always has been
Well we've kinda reached it a few years ago, we're on the optimization side now
@@randomname1392Quantum computers in every device
It's about the surface roughness. How hilly and jagged the top atomic layer may be, not the thickness.
Yep. The limit is the fact that the "noise/electrical interference" of the subatomic particles in an atom moving around becomes a problem. Spock says Fascinating.....
"We don't have to take over the car, we have the fastest racehorses in the stable, our competitors will never catch up with us. EUV is like the internet" - Brian Krzanich
Intel CPUs has been offering IPC gains
Having the machines here in the US means nothing. Almost no one here in the US knows how to run them. We need to invest a lot more in education.
no one seems to know anything these days lol
Where China excel thank you
@@jacquelineperet6599
At stealing knowledge and company secrets? Happened a lot here in Germany during the 90s and early 2000s.
It isn't profitable to invest in education.
You have no idea the amount of chips the US produce do you?
Sickening that government grants are needed when they should have reinvested in the company. Just 🤒
All major industries are subized by the government. This is true in all countries.
China did the same.
nvidia doesn't even make chip, they just buy them from TSMC, why they market cap goes up was because of speculation on AI. it has nothing to do with chip manufacturing. in fact nvidia only grew because they primary competitor in the past, 3dfx(dead) and ati(now amd), spend more of their money building part of their hardware, while nvidia focus on solely design and software. demostrating the superiority of the outsourcing model. AMD would follow this selling their fab business(now GlobalFoundries) and focus on design and software as well, netting them the deal with sony playstation which is also seeking to get out of making their own hardware. the entire TSMC business is build on outsourcing chip production, if the outsource model isn't superior, it would not have been so dominate, yet it is also misleading to amusing outsource number are the entire chip industry, obiviously intel and many chinese companies that build inhouse are not accounted for. I have yet to see any media put up a decent research that compare both outsource and inhouse production. without which you cannot do a comparison between nvidia and intel as it would be worst than comparing orange to apple.
Exactly! See my comment, I read yours only afterwards:) I tried to explain in my comment that this clip is a great example of Daniel Kahneman bias thinking principle...
Division of labor (specialization) via outsourcing led to vulnerability to geopolitical competition.
Also relevant that Intel began bemoaning the huge capex of new fabs 25+ years ago ... and that
capital investment has been limited in lots of stateside industry since the imperative, after 1980
shifted to shareholder returns.
the pt of US making chip is not to cut cost compare to TSMC, thats why nobody did it in the first place. just now everyone including europe realize chip is the new oil and you cant have oil in other countries just incase there is a global war breaks out
Intel is still try to do both design and manufacture, but their design is behind AMD, and manufacture is far behind TSMS. What are chances they catch-up on both ends?
I think you're forgetting the exploding revenues and profits for Nvidia.
It started when we outsourced everything to get cheap labor when I was a kid in the 90's. My grandparents worked for HP. They sent everything overseas. That was the worst, most corrupt choice. Now we all pay.
No. It starts from Regan.
Your not thinking like a CEO. If you DONT outsource, then you can't make as much money.
Then ready to buy apple iphone for 3000 dollars...lol
That transitioned from 'America' to 'Intel' pretty swiftly
Intel's ceo blew it.
Read the other comments. It's bigger than that.
Our early tech companies were started and run by engineers. Over time the engineers running these companies were replaced with bean counters. American workers were laid off and the work was moved overseas to be done at a much lower coast. It was just a matter of time. Blame it on the greed of the top level managers at the expense of the American worker.
I don't get that some people believe CEOs work hard. The vast majority now didn't even work hard to get there and were just wealthy enough for the position. They don't do anything, they don't produce anything, they're payed like 500 times more. F88k it, the workers should elect their management.
Just like Boeing, Intel was run by market people, not engineers. Instead investors put these market people in charge of these companies and ultimately they win because they fail but can convince the government they need our tax dollars. Ultimately, they lead to higher profits because the tax payers make their profits. If an engineer was running the company, they might be winning and not need our tax dollars but their profits are still lower because they don't get our tax dollars. All these subsidies encourage crony capitalism and we get stuck doing this over and over. Just one more bale out for these massive companies.
Then Elizabeth Warren, who voted to give these companies massive subsidies, complains these companies have massive profits. You are the one doing it!
By 2027, TSMC, Samsung and Intel new plants will be operating. My question is - who will be buying those newly minted OVERCapacity chips?
umm every new APU for all xbox/PS's, every new server chip, every new pc AMD/intel cpu, every gpu made by intel, amd, nvidia, all cell phone chips think about it man the list is even bigger then that
@@NightshiftCustom What will happen to the fabs in SK and Taiwan if the US starts to flood the market with high end chips?
@@davidt02 What? TSMC and SK are already making high-end chips. It is the US that needs to catch up on the production capacity. I also worked at AWS (one of three major server companies) and many businesses need so much computation, storage, management capacities from us where we just cannot keep it up without hiring hundred of people every month to keep up the expansion and maintenance. We are literally proping up new sites every three months with capacity of 500k server spaces just in my state's cluster alone.
same as the real estate market. Over supply of housing and creating ghost cities. But the fertility rate is going down.
There is literally a higher demand for chips then production for everything.
USA did the same thing with Middle East oil in the 1970's. Shifted from a net exporter to net importer because foreign oil was "cheap". Then embargoes happened, wars happened and oil became a method for adversaries to attack the USA. Today we are the world's largest producer again but it took decades to fix that mistake.
The US became the largest producer again do the fracking and advancing technology. Not policy changes.
I am old enough to remember the days when people used to say that governments should not pick winners.
You must be ancient old wise one!
That was before globalization. American companies outsourced the jobs AND technology to increase profits. We need the government to subsidize bringing the jobs & technology back (basically bribe them) because corporations only care about money. It's not about "picking a winner," unless you're talking about the USA in general. Right now, we're at the mercy of whatever is happening in the South Pacific for chips. That's INSANE, because they are a fundamental piece in almost everything now. We saw how bad that can be during Covid. Now imagine if China decides to invade Taiwan & manufacturing is halted. Done. No more new cars, phones, and dozens of other items. Or they become unaffordable.
Literally all major industries are subsized. In all countries too.
Yet many of the most successful economies did exactly that. Not picking winners is just a dogma. You just gotta pick wisely. The mistake governments often make is to pick winners by protecting older stagnant industries from more innovative newcomers.
Explain what Chinese government is doing and why they are so successful.
Same thing happened with GSM mobile technology. Invented by USA but realized in Europe
America's problem is not worlds problem.
I'm honestly glad that no single country has the means to make high-end chips. Hopefully that interdependence keeps us from killing each other
Nice story bro framing it like the US made it all possible but it was Dutch ingenuity and persistence that made it work. It’s technology but how these machines work and how they even figured it out is closer to magic than anything else.
"Dutch ingenuity and persistence", lol. All these companies employ people from all over the world, the teams are 100% international. The only national things are politics and finance.
@@M69392 absolutely not, the Dutch to the semiconductor chip industry are what German engineers are to the auto industry. Stop the hate and when you see a Dutch, don’t forget to tell him how much you appreciate! 🇳🇱🇳🇱
@@abrahamharmouche3955 "The hate" ...
@@M69392 you heard, put respect on it! 🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱🇳🇱
Agree, but don’t forget the Germanz from Zeiss, they put a lot of effort in this as well.
Another example of how global trade and outsourcing to save ten cents ruined everything.
If you don’t do that, you will have inflation, which is worse than losing jobs.
@@brotherbig4651 Don't give me that bs were doing it now and still have inflation so what's the difference?
@@GamerbyDesign You are currently decoupling with China. A lot of Chinese products are banned. If you allow China to import their electric cars and other manufacturing products, you won’t have an inflation at all. You can buy a new car for 10k in China.
@@brotherbig4651 And when was the last time you can buy a new car for 10k in the us? There will inflation for a while then new companies will start manufacturing here and it will go back down. Never should have coupled with China in the first place all that it did was help them.
@@GamerbyDesign You are dreaming. US don’t have the engineers, labor, and technology to build new factories. Your people don’t even want to work for 5 days a week. They think manufacturing is too boring and exhausting. China built the factory for Tesla in a year. It took Texas 4 years to build a much smaller one for Tesla. TSMC wanted to build a chip factory in Arizona. They couldn’t find enough chip engineers and manufacturing workers in the US. They wanted to import their experts from Taiwan to train local people. And the effort was blocked by anti-immigrant law makers. And if you tell me it is because the workers are not paid fairly in the US, then it means you want to massively increase their wage, which will push up the inflation further.
Fascinating insight into the world of semiconductors and how geopolitical dynamics have shaped its advancement. I've also found the role of EUV technology quite intriguing, bringing a new dimension to our understanding of technological progress. The quantum leap from a small Dutch company to a major players against Japanese companies is an inspiring journey. It’s disappointing that US companies did not capitalize on their investments, affecting their dominance in the market.
yaah and then they (possibly) threatened Dutch to not sell these machines to China.
Many large American companies are too short term focus. Boeing is a perfect example.
Boeing is an example of what happens when companies pay off politicians to reduce regulations so shareholders can earn bigger dividends.
Name of the documentary is misleading.
Everyone's gangsta until quantum computer shows up
The Dutch, I learned in school more than fifty years ago, since the 'Golden Age' used to be called "the Chinese of Europe."
I bet the Intel CEO that made the terrible decision still got millions in bonuses, shares and compensation. They always do.
So the EU and US is going to sanction China EV cars because the China government has subsidized it to make it competitive low price....and Now the US government is begging Intel other chipmakers to take the government grant money to make semiconductors monoploy...I am so confused..
Thats there M.O. Nothing surprising
Tesla is heavily subsidized in US, 7500$ from federal government and up to 7500$ from local governments
You're confused that USA sees China as a threat in tech industry and national security and don't want China to somehow "speed past" USA. Wow, how can that be confusing?
why arent that many mainland chinese buying chinese ev's?
8:28 “Government funding” = taxpayers’ money. 😢
Why..... Lobbyist were able to sway American politicians (Both parties) to abandoned American manufacturing for Cheaper Taiwanese labor.
Well, no. Check the biography of TSMC's founder. Seriously. You will find the answer there. While you are at it, check the biography of the guy who started China's missile and nuclear efforts. All American educated. Oh, check the biography of the CEO of nVidia as well. See the pattern?
That's a feature of unbridled capitalism, eventually it will consume everything.
Nah BS.
What it is in reality Taiwanese engineers and scientists are better.
@@user-tt6il2up4o That's odd, Then why did TSMC need Intel engineers for setting up its present manufacturing plant. Puzzling..lol
@@raynash4748 If you think Intel would lift a finger to help TSMC, a direct competitor, then you obviously know nothing about the semiconductor industry. TSMC had a hard time recruiting for their Arizona fab because nobody in his right mind would work 12-hr days, 6 days a week and be on-call 24/7 all for a below US average salary as the engineers do in Taiwan. TSMC had to fly in hundreds of engineers from Taiwan to get the Arizona fab up and running, and they are still multiple years behind schedule.
Cryptomining and AI hype bubbles have driven GPU chip demand has been primarily responsible for nvidias growth
How are data centers hype?
bitcoin hasn't been mined with GPU's since 2013. there are companies like bitmain and antminer who produce whole machines and they don't use nvidia at all.
this is all AI hype and is likely a huge bubble
NVidia is a fabless company so that's an irrelevant comparison altogether
@@astroNexx Bitcoin wasn't but ETH was mined with GPUs until it moved to PoS. I know because I had half a dozen 3070's mining ETH in 2020~2021 lol. Those cards were literally printing money for a few months until everybody and their moms started mining as well.
Nobody said Bitcoin @@astroNexx
China will get its own duv and euv, its just a matter of time.
"China will get its own duv and euv, its just a matter of time."
So will North Korea, it's just a matter of time. Of course, the big question is: How much time? A decade? Two? A century? These things matter a lot.
@@pjacobsen1000A decade would be China being a slowpoke. I wouldn't be surprised if they were at parity with us by the end of the decade.
North Korea on the other hand, considering that outside of ballistic missiles and nukes they are still manufacturing early Cold War era weapons at the best of times, probably sometime by the end of the millennium.
@@pjacobsen1000 look how little time it took china to have its own space station. don't underestimate them
@@danielo9902 What do you mean by 'how little time'. If you start at the Qin Dynasty, it took them over 2200 years. When do you start counting? If you start counting from the time China first entered space exploration and sent up it's first satellite, that was in 1970, 54 years ago. They launched their first space station in 2011, after 41 years. Is that a 'little time'?
@@pjacobsen1000 your comparing north korea to china really?
TSMC engineer like to say, lithography machines is just the oven, you can't make bread without bakers. the reason US lost the chip race (yes, China already produce more chip), isn't because it doesn't have the best oven, it because american don't want to be the baker, it a hot and boring job. Asian country are ahead because of their culture and willingness to work hard. when TSMC can't find "baker" in the US, the tried to bring them in from Asia, only to be stop by the unions, american unions are destorying US ability to "bake chip", it's that simple. people who talk about this like it a technology mistake, are just diverting attention away from the fact that american rather be youtuber than engineers...
Yeah, they work slaves on 12 hour shifts under adverse conditions. It shouldn't even be legal to sell such chips in western countries.
RUclipsr = more status; more status --> women; women prefer men with status over engineers. Engineers get the least action when it comes to women.
(Karen comments in 3... 2.. 1..)
Seems like people don't want to get to the dirty jobs they outsource it to low paid workers, those low paid workers actually improved the secret sauce how to bake it to perfection, now they want that secret but the bakers are lazy.
USA needs more gendah policies. Somehow it will boost invention and tech growth. You know, more transgendah = more tech.
The main reason U$A will never able to compete in Chip manufacturing.
All the country that do well in chip manufacturing , has Confucianism culture.
For chip manufacturing, a high level of discipline is the key, and most Americans today don't possess it.
They call it “forced labour"
Taiwanese media reported on August 2 that TSMC claimed the production holdup at its Arizona facility was caused by a shortage of trained American labour and that they had sent staff from Taiwan to assist with the factory's development. Labour union officials in Arizona, on the other hand, criticised TSMC for exploiting this as a justification to bring in "low-wage foreign labour."
that's deep, too deep for western artificial outlook
Correctmundo maximus - look at Boeing's shift from Eng./mfg. company to
finance focus. BA's engineers & factory floor workers are NOT the problem, C-suit [mis]management is.
Yes, the American work ethic and culture is to blame.
@@samrapheal1828 Hope this whistleblower stay safe.
2024-4-18 A Boeing engineer says he was harassed and threatened by the company after raising serious concerns about the safety of its planes.
Sam Salehpour, the engineer-turned-whistleblower, also believes assembly flaws in the 787 Dreamliner mean the plane could fall apart and drop to the ground midflight, and that it should be immediately grounded.
Intel will never beat TSMC. They maybe can beat Samsung because intel a pure semiconductor company. but not TSMC
it will tsmc will be no more soon, since china will occupy
intel made finfet first tsmc was the one lagging
as a wise boy once said: never say never
Never say never. Markets can shift quick with tech breakthroughs. People would of said that about TSMC beating intel in the past.
@@coolyoutubechannel5891 Not just tech. You should also keep geopolitics in mind
Edit: especially in this case
2:00 How can a layer be polished to have a thickness of less than one atom? The video goes on later to correctly state that this is impossible at 2:47
It's a SMOOTHNESS of less than one atom, not a thickness. In other words, the variation from the peaks to the troughs of any surface errors are less than one atom in size.
@@pmirsky658 Ahhhhh. Thanks for the explanation!
this is incredible Journalism. condense and informative. Excited for Intels next advancement... with that being said, how would it affect parallel processing chips like gpus.
Applied Materials was the leader in chip making machines un til ASML. What happened on their end to lose out?
*Still never buying intel stock.*
An interesting summary of the industry, just skimed the surface I know but, still thankyou.
I still think all these shenanigans against China are just the correct incentive for them to drop gargantuan amounts of money to develop the technology to catch up and surpass ASML.
The USA and Europe need chip making, not next to china. This is an eggs in one basket issue that is being fixed.
ASML controls the world. Proud to be Dutch.
Fantastic explanation of the technology.
Why? Corporate greed. Not that hard to realize off shore labor and business tax breaks and lower environmental protection all lead to companies moving operations.
Nha, it was just Intel making cpus that was barely better than last gen for like 10 years!
The two methods to get beyond 12nm are EUV and "quadruple patterning" on iDUV. EUV is easy, but expensive; quadruple patterning is cheap, but very difficult. Intel always planned on getting EUV machines, they just went with quadruple patterning first, which made them fall behind. Now that TSMC and Samsung have to develop their own quadruple patterning, Intel is catching up.
Here for the unnecessarily sick bass drop at 5:28
I’m working in Intels Fab34 in Ireland and it’s installing 16 EUVs. They are beasts.
It's a bit too late for the US, as China start to make their own High end chips starting from 7nm in 2023, then 5 - 3nm by the end of this year and possibly 2 - 1nm by 2025. Huawei spends more than 50 billion on innovations annually and has started to build Fabs for the New photon chips which are diamond based, there will be multiple layers and enough space to put everything into one 3d chip while using SHDC laser instead of electricity would mean its' hundreds times faster than the current silicone based chips, also the diamond based chips can release heat much more efficiently.
China only managed to make 7nm chips with western tools. Hard to say if the can go any further. As they have to replace all those western tools. That's going to be a challenge.
The narrator voice is way too soft in volume. The difference between his voice and those interviewed is way too big also.
+ the frickin' background music.
Absolutely not necessary.
I think the sound engineer is the one who messed up
2:40 I once overheard a process engineer complaining about unreasonable tolerances. One of the chip's layers was to be only 24 molecules thick, and the layer thickness should have no more than 3% variation.
Intel just building now is a joke.
Anything less than 7nm is just not really worth it. You simply dont need it. Its just for bragging rights.
It is just a case of making things smaller to hopefully use less power, but there comes a point when there is negligible gain. And we have reached that point already.
It is bully and NOT a competition when only one side(U$A) can change rules.
Just like your classmate(U$A) use his family power coercing the stationary shop(ASML,Japan,..) NOT to sell stationary to you.
say hi to Xitler for me.
All poor America is sad they didn't steal it
if we lose taiwan, tell me, what is your plan b, intel who got stuck for years at 14nm?
global foundries?
samsung?
each country should have a plan b for these things
@@betag24cn SMIC is the backup.
nice way to spell China
Just the fact that this technology exists blows my mind. I can’t even wrap my head around what goes into this.
Great video as always!
Outsourcing = profits = wealth over nation health
Sooo Intel did a Kodak
word: "Legacy
Fun fact. For a employee incentive the employees had the choice to get shares or money. Some of the people working there since a long time are millionaires due to the bonuses back in the day when the shares were really cheap.. Even the cleaning crew
We are in between the very small and very large.
When did 'chip making' become one word?
...probably the day Google became a verb 😄
Here in the US, CEO's are keenly focused on the current quarter's EPS target, NOT the long-term. Same with US politicians, they only focus on the current Election cycle. Further, a US politician that has ZERO business experience and has collected a government paycheck for +40 years should just stay out of the way.
Another great video, love your explanation series 😊❤
lol what.. this isnt someone in their bedroom making videos.
Transistor processors have almost reached the limit of performance and power consumption.
And most developers offer comparable technologies.
This whole race for chips is very reminiscent of another bubble. A huge number of factories are being built and at the same time a huge number of export restrictions are being introduced. In the next couple of years this will lead first to an oversupply, and then to a big crisis in the industry.
The future belongs to photonic and quantum processors, they are already a reality. And for hybrid processors, analog + transistor for AI needs.
So those machines will be odsolete with the next gen material used like graphene or photonic chip. So who will suffer more with China shunning US's chips due to national security, decoupling, derisking or overcapacities if you actually know what it means?
Not every product needs the latest and greatest manufacturing equipment.
@@mecanuktutorials6476 Correct, majority of our daily products like printer, washing machines, machinery, washing machines, EV, space, airplane, etc don't need high-end or below 14nm chips. They are called legacy chips and China is quite self sufficient in manufacturing those chips domestically. High end chips don't fit or might even have the negative impacts on reliability. Unlike many advanced countries, in which don't even produce those chips themselves! More so, the technology and equipments in making them. What worry the west is China advancement in the high-end chips too despite all the sanctions and bans. The West will pay dearly if China managed to surpass the sanctions and is proving so.
They should be hurry, they're losing money too fast
If you are going to claim Americans did the foundation for asml euv machines, I like some acknowledgement for us inventing the ship and the wheel that got you to the country you stole from native Americans. All technology is based on what came before. That doesn't mean you can claim everything as your own. Others have added crucial bits you didn't.
The U.S. can afford $100B in chip subsidies. I wonder how far $100B would go in building high quality mental health facilities and long term care for those that need it.
It’s because the money and policymakers thought they were above blue collar work and could get by pushing the more physically demanding and less profitable sectors to others. They invested all their time and energy into office jobs for finance, software and e-commerce and ignored the plight of everyone else.
In tech years. The US is 40 years behind at this stage.
The US leads in AI, software and chip design. China can only steal and make second rate copies.
Chloe Grace Moretz working undercover as a journalist.
Same plastic surgery
She's her CLON 😂
@@Booz2010cylon you mean ?
I wonder if it is because these companies are seeking to develop products that can be sold only to governments or the military.
We're going to start making chips in the US again!
Biden: I thought Frito-Lays had that covered?
what really irks me is that corporate America has no problem taking billions in government subsidies and handouts (your tax dollars), whilst stubbornly refusing to pay their fair share in taxes 🤷♂. It's socialism for the rich and brutal capitalism for everyone else.
Are you a liberal? Is socialism for everyone better (real question)?
@@quinsutton7097dude you avoided what he said. Reflect upon his statement. Does it sound fair or not?
Gekoloniseerd
Indoenshiyans: Meneer please visit BALI 😅
AND just to add to the string of mistakes in the US, the comeback in the chip industry which uses an enormous amount of water is being built in a state "known for it huge amount of water as a natural resource" - Arizona.
"A lot of the underlying technology originated in the USA but the main beneficiaries are outside the USA" - What else is new, this is the case in pretty much any field lol
US 😂
The rightful laughing stock of the world.
Is this an American invention from real American scientists like space rockets and the a-bomb were?
You mean the German V2 and British tube alloys?
Never
@@andrewallen9993 do you mean the American government and the American scientists didn’t make a significant contribution to the effort? After all, America is a country of immigrants…
Those were german inventions
@@Broskisnowski no way! 🤭
YO, BLOOMBERG! I can't hear your announcer. Maybe get him a mic that compensates for that intensity dropoff he does at the end of sentences? (I don't know the technical term.)
I haven't finished the video yet, but so far the phenomenon is at its worst at 3:25 where I had to replay that section five times, gave up and turned on RUclips's hit-and-miss captioning to find out that he said, "match government spending".
This is not to overly or unfairly criticize this announcer's delivery. I just think that this voice is getting swallowed up in the audio mix.
Real strategy takes balls because of the inherent risk, but the only thing that Corporate America can stomach is cost cutting and outsourcing (which isn't a strategy since it's the default every company turns to). While it guarantees next quarter's returns, it also guarantees the company's long-term decline.
Nothing about the architecture that Intel uses compared to that mainly produced by TSMC. They portray it like if Intel just gets back to ASML everything will be alright. Intel uses x86 architecture which is inferior to ARM based architecture.
Not for certain applications. There is room for multiple CPU architectures.
We are a capitalist nation, why are we funding businesses like a socialist nation. We should be consistent with companies as we are with people.
Corporate welfare; it's socialism but only for the rich.