I rarely parlay spreads only money line and very few over/under totals. My winning percentage is much higher this way. Appreciate your advice, thank you.
Great move I bet all big dogs money line all then I parley it with someone tomorrow I lost 80 4$$ parlays I won 9 4$$ parlays profit 589$$ no emotion every dog hockey reverse puck the best value go to paulys picks u tube u will see me I'm a wrong better
While in Vegas in September and the Baltimore Orioles were something like 29 games out (from last Wild Card spot) with 30 to go. The sportsbook still had odds for them to win the World Series at 5000-1. That sounds really good to people who don’t know baseball looking to make a high return. For anyone who follows baseball, even a little bit, knows that is a total sucker bet. No team has ever comeback from such a deficit to make the playoffs, much less win the championship. Apparently, it is not illegal for the sportsbook to offer the wager until a team is mathematically eliminated.
@@Bigbubba1993- A 19-45 record is before the All Star Break. The situation I saw would require a team that was well below .500 to go on a 30-game win streak while another go on a 30-game losing JUST to make the playoffs. Comebacks happen, but not that crazy.
I find parlays in soccer payoff significantly compelling from a risk/return perspective. Do you find the “straight bet vs parlay” varies significantly by sport/league?
Great post! I’m so grateful to have learned this landscape +15 years ago before the books became predatory and filled with false marketing. I will take a random bonus match with 1x rollover and do take the odds boost if paid in cash. Bonuses are a complete waste and just used to get you addicted.
You left off something that easily should be #1: College Football Teasers! Most of the team the only thing teasing does is cut into your profit since most would hit as parlays - as well.
Absolute worst bet- parlays. It’s a sucker’s choice, and the fact that the sportsbooks keep promoting SGP and other parlay types… is the proof of it. Don’t play their game.
I turned $5 into $1000 steam rolling it through EPL and UFC. I had a heart attack waking up seeing my last bet $400 on Liverpool (they were down 1-0 with a red card on Virgil ) they came back in the 80-90th to win 2-1. I haven’t gambled since
i picked the ravens to win the super bowl before the start of the season, i don't know why i just felt it's their time, they are kicking ass so far so i'm happy for them
It depends on the odds of each leg, but if you assume 50% probability that each leg will win, then the true odds of a 3-team parlay would be 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% or +700. Most sportsbooks would pay +600 on a 3-team parlay. That would be a -12.5% house edge on the money risked.
I would add for any gambler if you ONLY like a Favorite on the money line, your subconscious is telling you take the points and the dog. Often times when you take the favorite on the money line thinking they ONLY need to Win the game.......they end up losing outright!
Ah. ultimate win futures are poor but over/under total futures , being 2 sided, not so bad. Also parlays of 1st half and final favs have been very lucrative for me but most sports books dont offer it anymore. Mildly surprised teasers did NOT make the top 5.
I’ve done incredibly well on team over/unders since I started betting. I look for teams that make big off season moves that the fan base is going to enter the market and inflate the odds artificially. The Jets were a perfect example. I cashed on their under in week 13. Last year taking the over on the Nuggets, Kings, and the Warriors under were easy locks.
Basically he says don't make any bets other than single, individual, bets. Lol What he didn't say is that if you make single bets every day, it's basically the same as having to get the coin flip correct 3 times in a row anyway. If you bet a single bet on a favorite, you get a fraction of the potential winnings. And if you lose one, you need to win the next 2 to get back in the black. If you play a $5 parlay that pays $100, you only have to win 1 out of 20 days (bets) to break even. If you win 2 times out of 20, you double that to 200. I agree with the futures, kinda, unless your team is an extreme longshot. Then you want to get that bet in when they are at their lowest expectation. Also, I agree with what he said about the free bets and the 1 or nothing bets. Parlays are where it's at. If you build your parlays in a certain way, you can guarantee yourself money if your first couple bets hit. It's called hedging. And just for those that don't know, a hedging example is: You pick an NFL 1 o'clock game A 4 o'clock game. An 8 o'clock game. If the first 2 win, and the payout is $100 if the 3rd team wins, you bet $25 on the team you didn't pick. You either win $50 or $100. Unless that team is the underdog, then you could almost guarantee yourself your $100 win.
But see in a parlay you lose one and it’s busted where you can win some money back in singles and like he said on a parlay you have about a 12% chance or less versus 3 50% chance bets
On a separate note, a few years ago, Leicester City were 5000/1 to win the Premier league a few years back. The previous season they barely avoided relegation. Bookies often tempt fans with ludicrous odds for essentially betting on no hopers to win the Premier league. With 4 months of the season to go, the bookies were hounding the punters to cashout, but Leicester were 10 pts clear and looked unstoppable, as the weeks wound on and they kept getting great results, they eventually won the title. Tom Hanks quite famously went to a Leicester game and pre-season dropped £100 on them to win the title. It won him £500,000 ( and the IRS taxed him on it ). Here in the UK, all winnings ( bookies/online bookies/lotteries/tv prize money on gameshows ) - is all tax free. Some fans did cashout, some said fck it and rode the bet. The bookies lost a sh*t tonne of money. Sadly, gone are the days of getting those odds for any team to win the Premier league. I think the best I've seen is 250/1.
Used new customer free bets, on two separate round-robin 7s by 8. For NFL futures, division winners. 10 per parlay. 16 parlays total. My one, I picked Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay, SanFran, Detroit and... Miami. Got lucky that Miami v Buffalo was the very last game and $6900 was my cash out. (Max payout was 14.8k) Worked out but it was the most stressful bet I've ever placed, cause damn near every game, every week, mattered to me. Never again...
I love future bets, i usually use my free bets on them. Last year had winner of Greyhound derby at 100/1. And i backed 7 teams this year for Superbowl, with 6 teams left. And i did them each way, so half odds for Just getting to final. So chances are i will get 2 to final. Free money, as i paid for it all without using my cash. Also did a few future parlay with chiefs, 49ers and bills win there divisions.... Lets not forget you could get bills at 15/8 at beginning as hype from jets and dolphins
I saw your interview and I felt like you were speaking to me directly. I've always been horrible at math to the point that it was affecting my GPA in college and ultimately would beat down on myself as a failure ( later in life I would discover dyslexia is real). But in any case, sports betting and developing the maturity of discipline would make me more, dare is say? Passionate about this craft. But the love is short lived as this appetite for more always pulls me. A dark force perhaps? but an always tantalizing emotion that washes over me like a cool wave. Best of luck Captain and thanks.
The guys at Unabated have a ton of free information and it would take you months to consume it all. If you’re really passionate treat it like a university course and follow exactly what they recommend.
It's all just a math equation. Are the points you are gaining worth more than the price you're paying. We have a Teaser Calculator at Unabated for Premium members that helps figure it out. However, what you'll find is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. It turns a 50% probability into a 75% probability, which makes the probability to hit a 3-teamer .75 * .75 * .75 = 42.19%. Typically those 3T 10pt teasers are offered at -120 odds (implied 54.5% probability). They'd need to be offered at better than +137 odds (42.19% implied probability) to be +EV.
I was never allured by same game parlays. I still can’t believe sports shows advertize them. I do make occasional regular parlays, but after watching this video, I may lay off those.
Just hit last night $26 for $227 I only do parlays & I study a players last 5-10 Games when betting don’t take ridiculous odds like +300 on 35pts instead do 15/20pts & make a ticket at about +200 odds & put $50 down
You’re definitely right. I won 1 out of 6 parlays last night. But that 1 brought me back even. I’m 0/6 so far today with 1 game being played but I just need 2 of these bad boys to be back to normal hahahahhaa
If it's a betting exchange you should be able to offer to take the other side of the wager. That's the best part of an exchange, you can set a price where you'd book the action and how much you'd like to risk.
I have to disagree with you on the free first bet. Offset it at the normal odds on another site for the opposite outcome. Just bet the underdog on the free side, the favorite on the normal side. Then you make a 2nd bet if the real money loses to get a total of about 40%. It’s addition 101.
@tw1nn319 why i bet Washington to win national title before playoffs at +700 in the past and hedged Michigan 5 minutes before game that was about to be played in the future 😳
Unless you are able to accurately create your own lines to then compare against the book odds, just stay away from sports betting. It's like trying to play blackjack without knowing basic strategy, you are feeding the casino money. Unless you are going to put in the time to narrow the house's edge, just play roulette or slots
Or you could let the sharp sportsbooks determine what the line should be and then pick off softer lines at other sportsbooks. People call this Top Down Betting. Here's how it works: ruclips.net/video/EQt2sq0_s64/видео.htmlsi=b67hl0sALRqeerwu
@@Unabated Again, if you put in the time and effort to narrow the edge like what you suggest, you are putting yourself in a better position. I would still suggest being able to look at a game and have an informed prediction of what the action should be before looking at the lines. I've seen interviews with some long time professional sports bettors who say creating their own lines helps with bankroll management and just helps you pick up those top down advantages. But yes, the top down strategy is a staple for most pros
What about prize picks as an example that gives you 10x for a 4 team parlay but you can bet two separate “same game parlay” your example Cousins and Jefferson, and Hurts and Brown to make a 4 teamer. This seems to be a loss of edge on the books part as when I started the nfl season every new sportsbook allowed this, but now they either do not allow or severely nerf the odds. Have been extremely profitable with this betting method this year
Correlation in parlay bets is a powerful angle. As you noted, Prizepicks has reduced payouts in situations where there is correlation. Trouble is, both sportsbooks and Prizepicks over-compensate for correlation and the payout is too reduced. Since most bettors can't exactly quantify the correlation effect, they don't recognize the penalty they're paying for the correlation. That's why SGP's are so lucrative for sportsbooks and harmful to bettors.
@@Unabated very interesting to learn the more nuanced side of sports gambling through your channel. I just noticed over the course of this year that Underdog as an example has lowered their payout on QB 1 and WR 1 for two separate games from +900 to +600. Assumed they noticed the edge and have corrected during the season. PP still is +900 and the only place I would make those type of bets now
Im sorry I’ll continue to do 1 lotto parlay a day … those payouts are worth it. N I’ve hit 3 25 leg joints in the past yr so that’s 3/365 .. I’m shooting for double that in 2024 ☺️.. $5 won’t kill me I’ve spent that on worse things
@@Unabated i keep my own stat sheet i personally do daily so i get lucky every once in a while .. like i said i'll do like 2 of em a day. but i can't lie im usually in the 5-10 leg range if i go long... im not a pro like u guys yet i make decent $ that pays the rent so i don't hv to use any of my salary, so im good for now
All bets are a scam in this regard. The entire premise of sportsbetting or any gambling is that there's always a house edge. Unless you find an arbitrage opportunity across different sportsbooks any bet is a -EV one. Content like this is to highlight which bet types have the lowest house edge to inform new bettors how to ensure you aren't giving the house more juice than normal. It's basically just telling people how to bet, not unlike studying a blackjack cheat sheet to make sure you're making the right choice based on your hand and the dealer's upcards. Or someone telling you to only bet the 1:1 or 2:1 payouts at roulette, or none of the field bets on craps. They're telling you where the house edge is lowest and to pick those bets. It's a good approach if you want to gamble as 'safely' as possible. It's a lot less exciting though and you can lose your ass all the same.
are you saying for the for the risk-free bet, if you win on your first attempt, you get your stake back? but if you win on your second attempt, you do not get your stake back?
That's correct. The first bet is treated like a normal wager if it wins. However, the second bet if you lose the first is free play. You don't get your stake back on the second one.
Literally missed out on a 15 team money line parlay all ncaa basketball games, lost by one game the washington huskies at home against the under .500 usc trojans. Would have won 6k out of a 25 dollar bet. I also took a lot of underdogs moneyline in this parlay like Gonzaga and South Florida who were both around +135 under dogs and took close games like iowa state -145 and Cincinnati -125.
You're actually 15x more likely to miss by just one game than you are to hit all 15. That same math works for any amount of legs in a parlay. Do a 3-leg parlay and you're 3x times more likely to miss by just one leg than you are to hit it. That's part of the trap of parlays, they lull you into thinking you JUST missed it and that was a bad beat. In actuality, your result was far more probable than you think.
@@Unabated Oh I know, parlays are lottery tickets. It's still impressive to hit 14 out of 15 games and honestly it was a close miss, all I needed was UW to win at home as 5.5 pt favorites for this particular ticket. I have won other big parlays, but have lost a lot more.
Yea I remember my first free bet I won 1200 buck cuz I never bet on favorites but this is good and bad I have a high chance of losing but when I win I win big
Best way to beat the sportsbook is by identifying incorrect lines. Example would be, a line being -160 when in reality it should be maybe +100. You find out by finding details the sportsbooks don't think of. For example, NBA players played like shit after Thanksgiving bc they ate too much. Or how just yesterday the Miami dolphins got destroyed because they're not used to playing in the freezing temperatures of -5 degrees in Kansas city. -240 for the Kansas city was a steal. No way Miami could do anything in that weather
Doesn't the example of betting the original $1000 on the underdog (with 23% chance) just show that betting on underdogs is correct in general regardless of whether it's part of a free bet scenario?
In the case of a free bet, you have a limited amount you can bet. That’s why you need to maximize the odds you play into. In regular betting there is typically not that constraint. So if you see something at -200 (66.7% implied probability) that has a 75% probability, it’s a good bet. Watch the video on our channel page for more on identifying price & probability.
Gambling winnings are taxed just the same as any other form of income. Federally, you declare your winnings as Other Income and you can deduct your losses up to the amount of your winnings if you itemize your deductions. More information about taxes and gambling available on our site here: unabated.com/articles/gambling-taxes-faq
idk shit, my predictions are always wrong, luckily i don't bet and have no idea what you're talking about. i do think the chiefs are gonna win the superbowl though so what should i do to get that money?
Around 7:44 to calculate EV you took potential winnings x percent of winning. I looked online and they calculated EV as (potential winnings x chance of winning) - (amount wagered x chance of losing). Why the difference?
But the bettor does not get the money back if they lose, they get a free bet, which isnt the same as you go on to explain. What you do with your 1st bet and what you do with your Free Bet are Independent Events and one should not impact the EV calculation of the other. The important part here is what to do with the free bet if you lose your initial bet (which you cover). @@Unabated
Question: I have noticed recently that a certain Sportsbook seems to offer much better odds than other books on a certain type of correlation in SGPs. Say one book would offer +230 on the SGP but this book offers +300. Is it possible this book is not accounting for the correlation enough making these positive EV bets? Im winning on these bets but its a small sample size so I do not know for sure that its not just variance that’s causing the winninh
Books like to over-pad their lines on SGP's to not only account for correlation but also for what they may not be factoring in. So while +300 would be better than +230, the real question would be "is +300 +EV?" Tough to say without trying to work out the correlation yourself. A lot of SGP correlation is beyond what most bettors can factor into their projections.
@@Unabated thanks for the response. I’m decent with stats and data so I think I will make an attempt at figuring out an estimate of how much correlation there would be. Loving your videos so far I found the channel like a week ago through blackjack apprentice channel
Never a good idea to make Superbowl or championship bets before the season. But you have to if you believe it. Both Lamar MVP seasons I've felt it in my bones and I should have gone in big but I didn't now I suffer
Bro we know we aren't getting 100% of the value for our bets Nobody asked "why to invest in gold vs sports gambling" everyone knows all of this already
I made a futures bet on me continuing to make all of these bets. So far, it's looking promising.
W
😂
200 iq play
Lol
😂😂😂😂
I rarely parlay spreads only money line and very few over/under totals. My winning percentage is much higher this way. Appreciate your advice, thank you.
Great move I bet all big dogs money line all then I parley it with someone tomorrow I lost 80 4$$ parlays I won 9 4$$ parlays profit 589$$ no emotion every dog hockey reverse puck the best value go to paulys picks u tube u will see me I'm a wrong better
Same here I almost always bet money line regardless and if I do parlay it's always money line
ML is the way plus round robin if you have a big parlay
While in Vegas in September and the Baltimore Orioles were something like 29 games out (from last Wild Card spot) with 30 to go. The sportsbook still had odds for them to win the World Series at 5000-1. That sounds really good to people who don’t know baseball looking to make a high return.
For anyone who follows baseball, even a little bit, knows that is a total sucker bet. No team has ever comeback from such a deficit to make the playoffs, much less win the championship.
Apparently, it is not illegal for the sportsbook to offer the wager until a team is mathematically eliminated.
@@Bigbubba1993- A 19-45 record is before the All Star Break. The situation I saw would require a team that was well below .500 to go on a 30-game win streak while another go on a 30-game losing JUST to make the playoffs. Comebacks happen, but not that crazy.
You are absolutely right in everything you said especially parlays. They made more money on parlays than anything else. Awesome info
I find parlays in soccer payoff significantly compelling from a risk/return perspective. Do you find the “straight bet vs parlay” varies significantly by sport/league?
@danielepps9452 No doubt the
BTTS/ 0ver 2.5 doesnt even "feel" like a parlay.
Good video, I just had to comment of Justin Jefferson actually being Trishton Jackson
bro i saw that i was like wtf lol glad i’m not the only one
All black people look alike to professional sport betters
Spicy pickles never let me down man I swear 🥲
Great post! I’m so grateful to have learned this landscape +15 years ago before the books became predatory and filled with false marketing. I will take a random bonus match with 1x rollover and do take the odds boost if paid in cash. Bonuses are a complete waste and just used to get you addicted.
1:22 this aged very very well
You left off something that easily should be #1:
College Football Teasers!
Most of the team the only thing teasing does is cut into your profit since most would hit as parlays - as well.
Absolute worst bet- parlays. It’s a sucker’s choice, and the fact that the sportsbooks keep promoting SGP and other parlay types… is the proof of it. Don’t play their game.
Highly underrated channel.
I live in Vegas and always give my visitors the 50 percent/25 percent/12.5 percent lesson on three-team parlays. And then they bet parlays and lose.
I turned $5 into $1000 steam rolling it through EPL and UFC. I had a heart attack waking up seeing my last bet $400 on Liverpool (they were down 1-0 with a red card on Virgil ) they came back in the 80-90th to win 2-1. I haven’t gambled since
😭😭😭😭😭😭
This dude won gambling and dipped. Un freaking real.
That's how you win. Few winning bets a year.
Wait you literally had a heart attack?
Great must bettors can't roll the win only the lost
Man I haven’t seen your videos in years. I like the new channel
i picked the ravens to win the super bowl before the start of the season, i don't know why i just felt it's their time, they are kicking ass so far so i'm happy for them
Damn 49ers. Would be my guess
Nice pick, defense wins games.
Good luck to you. I hope they win.
I have a futures bet too. +1800
If they can get past the 49ers you're in
I hear a lot of misdirection and unknown Gems within this advice, so thank you 😊
This really is incredible, merry christmas from the other end of the world. I hope you had a great one!
Thank you for the graphic at 5:25. What is the house edge and true odds on a 3 leg parlay? I see a lot of bonus bets and odds boosts with a 3 leg min.
It depends on the odds of each leg, but if you assume 50% probability that each leg will win, then the true odds of a 3-team parlay would be 0.5 * 0.5 * 0.5 = 12.5% or +700. Most sportsbooks would pay +600 on a 3-team parlay. That would be a -12.5% house edge on the money risked.
Excellent clear explanations
I like betting stats and doing alts instead of the set lines
I would add for any gambler if you ONLY like a Favorite on the money line, your subconscious is telling you take the points and the dog. Often times when you take the favorite on the money line thinking they ONLY need to Win the game.......they end up losing outright!
I bet 2 teams only I take the favorite I put 1000$ on Dallas and buffalo 2 win. Take home about 560$
Ah. ultimate win futures are poor but over/under total futures , being 2 sided, not so bad. Also parlays of 1st half and final favs have been very lucrative for me but most sports books dont offer it anymore. Mildly surprised teasers did NOT make the top 5.
I’ve done incredibly well on team over/unders since I started betting. I look for teams that make big off season moves that the fan base is going to enter the market and inflate the odds artificially. The Jets were a perfect example. I cashed on their under in week 13. Last year taking the over on the Nuggets, Kings, and the Warriors under were easy locks.
blud out here acting like aaron rodgers didn’t get hurt 💀
No you haven't. You've just remembered all your wins and forgotten all your losses.
@@Eggy79100%… a tale as old as time
Anytime I ask to see someone’s stats on bet365, they’re all surprised they’re losing money, lol.
@@theexecutor3337 Just bet the Jets under 10 next year when the hype is even bigger. Easy W.
On the other side, despite the juice, NFL season win totals a very good play.
Basically he says don't make any bets other than single, individual, bets. Lol
What he didn't say is that if you make single bets every day, it's basically the same as having to get the coin flip correct 3 times in a row anyway. If you bet a single bet on a favorite, you get a fraction of the potential winnings. And if you lose one, you need to win the next 2 to get back in the black.
If you play a $5 parlay that pays $100, you only have to win 1 out of 20 days (bets) to break even. If you win 2 times out of 20, you double that to 200.
I agree with the futures, kinda, unless your team is an extreme longshot. Then you want to get that bet in when they are at their lowest expectation.
Also, I agree with what he said about the free bets and the 1 or nothing bets.
Parlays are where it's at. If you build your parlays in a certain way, you can guarantee yourself money if your first couple bets hit. It's called hedging.
And just for those that don't know, a hedging example is:
You pick an NFL 1 o'clock game
A 4 o'clock game.
An 8 o'clock game.
If the first 2 win, and the payout is $100 if the 3rd team wins, you bet $25 on the team you didn't pick. You either win $50 or $100. Unless that team is the underdog, then you could almost guarantee yourself your $100 win.
But see in a parlay you lose one and it’s busted where you can win some money back in singles and like he said on a parlay you have about a 12% chance or less versus 3 50% chance bets
Sportsbooks love parlay bettors
@@kevenlang9116 they love all bettors
lmao thats not justin jefferson but good video lol
You're right...that's my mistake and didn't realize it until after the video was final. Was hoping nobody noticed. 😳
lol vikings fan so im nitpicking ahha@@CaptainJackAndrews
Lmfaoo
On a separate note, a few years ago, Leicester City were 5000/1 to win the Premier league a few years back. The previous season they barely avoided relegation. Bookies often tempt fans with ludicrous odds for essentially betting on no hopers to win the Premier league. With 4 months of the season to go, the bookies were hounding the punters to cashout, but Leicester were 10 pts clear and looked unstoppable, as the weeks wound on and they kept getting great results, they eventually won the title. Tom Hanks quite famously went to a Leicester game and pre-season dropped £100 on them to win the title. It won him £500,000 ( and the IRS taxed him on it ). Here in the UK, all winnings ( bookies/online bookies/lotteries/tv prize money on gameshows ) - is all tax free. Some fans did cashout, some said fck it and rode the bet. The bookies lost a sh*t tonne of money. Sadly, gone are the days of getting those odds for any team to win the Premier league. I think the best I've seen is 250/1.
Used new customer free bets, on two separate round-robin 7s by 8. For NFL futures, division winners. 10 per parlay. 16 parlays total. My one, I picked Baltimore, Houston, Kansas City, Dallas, Tampa Bay, SanFran, Detroit and... Miami.
Got lucky that Miami v Buffalo was the very last game and $6900 was my cash out. (Max payout was 14.8k)
Worked out but it was the most stressful bet I've ever placed, cause damn near every game, every week, mattered to me.
Never again...
What is a round Robin
I love future bets, i usually use my free bets on them. Last year had winner of Greyhound derby at 100/1. And i backed 7 teams this year for Superbowl, with 6 teams left. And i did them each way, so half odds for Just getting to final. So chances are i will get 2 to final. Free money, as i paid for it all without using my cash. Also did a few future parlay with chiefs, 49ers and bills win there divisions.... Lets not forget you could get bills at 15/8 at beginning as hype from jets and dolphins
These 5 tips are absolutely crucial for your sports career. Avoid the types of bets mentioned at all costs.
Thank you for this very informative content with examples. I will avoid those bets for sure.
I’m that jets fan that bet on Aaron Rodgers changing this franchise.. I feel attacked
I saw your interview and I felt like you were speaking to me directly. I've always been horrible at math to the point that it was affecting my GPA in college and ultimately would beat down on myself as a failure ( later in life I would discover dyslexia is real). But in any case, sports betting and developing the maturity of discipline would make me more, dare is say? Passionate about this craft. But the love is short lived as this appetite for more always pulls me. A dark force perhaps? but an always tantalizing emotion that washes over me like a cool wave. Best of luck Captain and thanks.
The guys at Unabated have a ton of free information and it would take you months to consume it all. If you’re really passionate treat it like a university course and follow exactly what they recommend.
Me: Mom can we get Justin Jefferson?
Mom: No, we have Justin Jefferson at home
JJ at Home: 6:00
😂
What would you think about a super teaser 10+ point spread 3 team parlay? Basically a team with a 7 point spread is now a 17 point spread.
It's all just a math equation. Are the points you are gaining worth more than the price you're paying. We have a Teaser Calculator at Unabated for Premium members that helps figure it out. However, what you'll find is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze.
It turns a 50% probability into a 75% probability, which makes the probability to hit a 3-teamer .75 * .75 * .75 = 42.19%. Typically those 3T 10pt teasers are offered at -120 odds (implied 54.5% probability). They'd need to be offered at better than +137 odds (42.19% implied probability) to be +EV.
Teaser bad beat
Great explanation…still can’t stop playing SGP’s tho lol
😂😂😂
I just checked Caesars sportsbook and the parlay payout came out to the same amount as calculated. Maybe that's a New York thing
I was never allured by same game parlays. I still can’t believe sports shows advertize them. I do make occasional regular parlays, but after watching this video, I may lay off those.
Just hit last night $26 for $227 I only do parlays & I study a players last 5-10 Games when betting don’t take ridiculous odds like +300 on 35pts instead do 15/20pts & make a ticket at about +200 odds & put $50 down
You’re definitely right. I won 1 out of 6 parlays last night. But that 1 brought me back even. I’m 0/6 so far today with 1 game being played but I just need 2 of these bad boys to be back to normal hahahahhaa
Great knowledge and incite
The Jets slogan should be "We are still the Jets "
if you only play the no sweat bets and promos and boosts you'll be good to go
Good video. I've seen some "One-Way" offers at a betting exchange that look pretty good. Are betting exchanges possibly an exception to this rule?
If it's a betting exchange you should be able to offer to take the other side of the wager. That's the best part of an exchange, you can set a price where you'd book the action and how much you'd like to risk.
I have to disagree with you on the free first bet. Offset it at the normal odds on another site for the opposite outcome. Just bet the underdog on the free side, the favorite on the normal side. Then you make a 2nd bet if the real money loses to get a total of about 40%. It’s addition 101.
All bets are future bets 😮
I was gonna say that lol. Can we bet on a PAST. I could be rich
but they arent "futures" bets😉
@tw1nn319 why i bet Washington to win national title before playoffs at +700 in the past and hedged Michigan 5 minutes before game that was about to be played in the future 😳
@@jvegas3209 it’s just a category of bets, man
you have a nice website good job :)
How do I see the on screen on unabated, just subscribed
Click NFL, Odds. Enjoy!
Unless you are able to accurately create your own lines to then compare against the book odds, just stay away from sports betting. It's like trying to play blackjack without knowing basic strategy, you are feeding the casino money. Unless you are going to put in the time to narrow the house's edge, just play roulette or slots
Or you could let the sharp sportsbooks determine what the line should be and then pick off softer lines at other sportsbooks. People call this Top Down Betting. Here's how it works: ruclips.net/video/EQt2sq0_s64/видео.htmlsi=b67hl0sALRqeerwu
@@Unabated Again, if you put in the time and effort to narrow the edge like what you suggest, you are putting yourself in a better position. I would still suggest being able to look at a game and have an informed prediction of what the action should be before looking at the lines. I've seen interviews with some long time professional sports bettors who say creating their own lines helps with bankroll management and just helps you pick up those top down advantages. But yes, the top down strategy is a staple for most pros
What about prize picks as an example that gives you 10x for a 4 team parlay but you can bet two separate “same game parlay” your example Cousins and Jefferson, and Hurts and Brown to make a 4 teamer.
This seems to be a loss of edge on the books part as when I started the nfl season every new sportsbook allowed this, but now they either do not allow or severely nerf the odds.
Have been extremely profitable with this betting method this year
Correlation in parlay bets is a powerful angle. As you noted, Prizepicks has reduced payouts in situations where there is correlation. Trouble is, both sportsbooks and Prizepicks over-compensate for correlation and the payout is too reduced. Since most bettors can't exactly quantify the correlation effect, they don't recognize the penalty they're paying for the correlation. That's why SGP's are so lucrative for sportsbooks and harmful to bettors.
@@Unabated very interesting to learn the more nuanced side of sports gambling through your channel. I just noticed over the course of this year that Underdog as an example has lowered their payout on QB 1 and WR 1 for two separate games from +900 to +600. Assumed they noticed the edge and have corrected during the season. PP still is +900 and the only place I would make those type of bets now
Im sorry I’ll continue to do 1 lotto parlay a day … those payouts are worth it. N I’ve hit 3 25 leg joints in the past yr so that’s 3/365 .. I’m shooting for double that in 2024 ☺️.. $5 won’t kill me I’ve spent that on worse things
You hit 3, 25 leg parlay a year on only $5 a day.... that is amazing!
I guess you were parlaying heavy favorites because the odds of hitting a 25-leg parlay of coin-flips is 1 in 30 million.
@@davidrynberk1533 hahaa i can smell the sarcasm coming thru the screen lol
@@Unabated i keep my own stat sheet i personally do daily so i get lucky every once in a while .. like i said i'll do like 2 of em a day. but i can't lie im usually in the 5-10 leg range if i go long... im not a pro like u guys yet i make decent $ that pays the rent so i don't hv to use any of my salary, so im good for now
Good stuff. Parlays are a scam but oddly enough I seem to hit a few. I usually bet $8 to win $300. Gives me 40 chances to break even
All bets are a scam in this regard. The entire premise of sportsbetting or any gambling is that there's always a house edge. Unless you find an arbitrage opportunity across different sportsbooks any bet is a -EV one.
Content like this is to highlight which bet types have the lowest house edge to inform new bettors how to ensure you aren't giving the house more juice than normal. It's basically just telling people how to bet, not unlike studying a blackjack cheat sheet to make sure you're making the right choice based on your hand and the dealer's upcards. Or someone telling you to only bet the 1:1 or 2:1 payouts at roulette, or none of the field bets on craps. They're telling you where the house edge is lowest and to pick those bets.
It's a good approach if you want to gamble as 'safely' as possible. It's a lot less exciting though and you can lose your ass all the same.
are you saying for the for the risk-free bet, if you win on your first attempt, you get your stake back? but if you win on your second attempt, you do not get your stake back?
That's correct. The first bet is treated like a normal wager if it wins. However, the second bet if you lose the first is free play. You don't get your stake back on the second one.
@@Unabated thank you!
Love 13 underdog team parlays
Good stuff, Cap.
You simply amazing
Literally missed out on a 15 team money line parlay all ncaa basketball games, lost by one game the washington huskies at home against the under .500 usc trojans. Would have won 6k out of a 25 dollar bet. I also took a lot of underdogs moneyline in this parlay like Gonzaga and South Florida who were both around +135 under dogs and took close games like iowa state -145 and Cincinnati -125.
You're actually 15x more likely to miss by just one game than you are to hit all 15. That same math works for any amount of legs in a parlay. Do a 3-leg parlay and you're 3x times more likely to miss by just one leg than you are to hit it.
That's part of the trap of parlays, they lull you into thinking you JUST missed it and that was a bad beat. In actuality, your result was far more probable than you think.
@@Unabated Oh I know, parlays are lottery tickets. It's still impressive to hit 14 out of 15 games and honestly it was a close miss, all I needed was UW to win at home as 5.5 pt favorites for this particular ticket.
I have won other big parlays, but have lost a lot more.
That’s not Justin Jefferson lol
Yea I remember my first free bet I won 1200 buck cuz I never bet on favorites but this is good and bad I have a high chance of losing but when I win I win big
Great
Vid..
Just got 2
It was free
Hit both STRAIGHT!
Best way to beat the sportsbook is by identifying incorrect lines. Example would be, a line being -160 when in reality it should be maybe +100. You find out by finding details the sportsbooks don't think of. For example, NBA players played like shit after Thanksgiving bc they ate too much. Or how just yesterday the Miami dolphins got destroyed because they're not used to playing in the freezing temperatures of -5 degrees in Kansas city. -240 for the Kansas city was a steal. No way Miami could do anything in that weather
The "ate too much yesterday" angle is really underutilized. 😉
Lol if Nc State wins it all i win 11k and i didn't bet anything except bonus bet $ so i get what hes saying but sometimes it makes sense just be smart
That is NOT Justin Jefferson 🤣🤣🤣
exactly
At first I thought George Santos was making this shit up…
Doesn't the example of betting the original $1000 on the underdog (with 23% chance) just show that betting on underdogs is correct in general regardless of whether it's part of a free bet scenario?
In the case of a free bet, you have a limited amount you can bet. That’s why you need to maximize the odds you play into. In regular betting there is typically not that constraint. So if you see something at -200 (66.7% implied probability) that has a 75% probability, it’s a good bet. Watch the video on our channel page for more on identifying price & probability.
Well done!
parlays can be profitable like any other wagers if done wisely (being conservative/bankroll.mgmt are key)
You should check out the sequel to this video. 😉
ruclips.net/video/bQzOKk7yeMY/видео.htmlsi=lzSQysw5ruiDueYR
Any bet that wins is a good bet. Any bet thay loses is a bad bet. The secret is knowing what will happen BEFORE you place your bet.
Need a time machine for that I need a 24 sport book for this year know who wins what
Good info but I still hit a $20 12gamer parlay for $10,000 last year 😉 🤑
How did that feel?
And yet no one else cares
Excellent vid but that was not Justin Jefferson 😂
Well I put up 5 bucks on 3 for the underdogs to win and made a mistake cashing out, would have won like 600 bucks😢
This guy looks like George Santos sheesh
great video my man but that is not justin jefferson 💀💀💀
I always arbitrage 1.5 to 2.5 H2H odds $100 on 1.5 and ($100 bonus ) on $2.5 odds = $50 profit
yes parlays are very losing. 2 game parlays are the best. Any bigger and the vig gets worse and worse
Future Pete here. The Jets are still the Jets.
how do you pay taxes if you win in California?
Gambling winnings are taxed just the same as any other form of income. Federally, you declare your winnings as Other Income and you can deduct your losses up to the amount of your winnings if you itemize your deductions. More information about taxes and gambling available on our site here: unabated.com/articles/gambling-taxes-faq
idk shit, my predictions are always wrong, luckily i don't bet and have no idea what you're talking about. i do think the chiefs are gonna win the superbowl though so what should i do to get that money?
shop around and find the best number on the Chiefs then bet it.
I like parlays i like method of victory
I literally bet a 13 game parlay last night won but only wagered 3 bucks. 🤢 it was +6350
If you bet probably you can hit parlay. Don't listen to him
Around 7:44 to calculate EV you took potential winnings x percent of winning. I looked online and they calculated EV as (potential winnings x chance of winning) - (amount wagered x chance of losing). Why the difference?
It's a risk-free bet, the bettor gets the money back if they lose, so there's no reason to calculate the losing side.
I see. Thank you for your explanation!@@Unabated
But the bettor does not get the money back if they lose, they get a free bet, which isnt the same as you go on to explain. What you do with your 1st bet and what you do with your Free Bet are Independent Events and one should not impact the EV calculation of the other. The important part here is what to do with the free bet if you lose your initial bet (which you cover). @@Unabated
every bet you can ever bet is a terrible one, until it wins
You should avoid all sports bets. Unless you love being poor.
I disagree. You need to put in the work and make smart, not risky bets and you can be profitable.
@@Nathan-qw2kc arbitrage bets are the only smart ones.
Most sports betters are clueless fish. Might as well let them keep swimming.
Question: I have noticed recently that a certain Sportsbook seems to offer much better odds than other books on a certain type of correlation in SGPs. Say one book would offer +230 on the SGP but this book offers +300. Is it possible this book is not accounting for the correlation enough making these positive EV bets? Im winning on these bets but its a small sample size so I do not know for sure that its not just variance that’s causing the winninh
Books like to over-pad their lines on SGP's to not only account for correlation but also for what they may not be factoring in. So while +300 would be better than +230, the real question would be "is +300 +EV?" Tough to say without trying to work out the correlation yourself. A lot of SGP correlation is beyond what most bettors can factor into their projections.
@@Unabated thanks for the response. I’m decent with stats and data so I think I will make an attempt at figuring out an estimate of how much correlation there would be. Loving your videos so far I found the channel like a week ago through blackjack apprentice channel
Bro that’s not Justin Jefferson 😐
That was not Justin Jefferson in that picture lol
No way did they just get Justin Jefferson graphic wrong😂😂
In surprised teasers aren’t on the list
Teasers, like parlays, can sometimes be good. Depends on price and the value of the points they tease through.
I bet on Michigan
Justin Jefferson looking a bit different 😅
Never a good idea to make Superbowl or championship bets before the season. But you have to if you believe it. Both Lamar MVP seasons I've felt it in my bones and I should have gone in big but I didn't now I suffer
Uh huh
I've been doing parlays everytime
Bro we know we aren't getting 100% of the value for our bets
Nobody asked "why to invest in gold vs sports gambling" everyone knows all of this already
Then of u win they cap your bets lol
Good dey i want to pay in
Dude teach me
Hang around, you might just learn a thing or two.
did a 50-leg player props parlay. i hit 47/50 10 to 900k in mine currency, didnt hit tho
that's a LIE 🙄👎🏻
That is not Justin Jefferson 💀
$1 on 1st: arsenal,2nd: Liverpool, 3rd:Man City if it hits I get $200 😂