Allan Lichtman famously predicted the 2016 election, but failed to predict a far more obvious Trump blowout in 2024. Benjamin Studebaker and Alex Sheremet discuss Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House", noting that its chief weakness is not the fundamentals that the keys describe, but Allan Lichtman himself, who refused to turn the keys appropriately. Clipped from ArtiFact 64: Donald Trump & The Liberal Hydra -- ruclips.net/video/j1nENjZNwu0/видео.html Read Alex Sheremet's essay on why Donald Trump was poised to win: www.automachination.com/joy-kamala-harris-lose-2024/ Buy Benjamin Studebaker's "Legitimacy in Liberal Democracies": www.amazon.com/Legitimacy-Liberal-Democracies-Benjamin-Studebaker/dp/1399534688/ Get the B Side to this conversation: www.patreon.com/automachination B Side Topics: Why Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" failed; pollsters had no courage; modeling presidential elections on fundamentals; the psychology of modeling; how blame is shifted on to the electorate; assessing a very mixed economy; did white collar workers punish Kamala Harris for 2023-24 layoffs; the housing market as independent of inflation metrics; why voters assess incumbents on a purely relative basis; politics of memory; inflation-adjusted median family income has not returned to Trump-era benchmarks; are liberals dropping out of politics after Trump's win; why MSNBC and other outlets are losing subscribers; why the fear narratives failed; the story of 2024 is a racial shift towards the GOP; Benjamin Studebaker on what sort of disagreement nation-states tolerate; the nature of political polarization; how political leadership has ceased to lead; folk legitimation vs. official legitimation; expanding notions of inequality Learn about and contribute to our film, "From There To There: Bruce Ario, the Minneapolis Poet": www.gofundme.com/f/new-film-the-minneapolis-poet-bruce-ario Subscribe to the ArtiFact podcast on Spotify: spoti.fi/3xw2M4D Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3wLpqEV Amazon Music: amzn.to/2SVJIxB Podbean: bit.ly/3yzLuUo iHeartRadio: ihr.fm/3AK942L Read more from the automachination universe: automachination.com Read Alex Sheremet’s (archived) essays: alexsheremet.com Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/automachination Tags: #election2024 #politics #lichtman #kamalaharris #donaldtrump
Allan Lichtman famously predicted the 2016 election, but failed to predict a far more obvious Trump blowout in 2024. Benjamin Studebaker and Alex Sheremet discuss Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House", noting that its chief weakness is not the fundamentals that the keys describe, but Allan Lichtman himself, who refused to turn the keys appropriately.
Clipped from ArtiFact 64: Donald Trump & The Liberal Hydra -- ruclips.net/video/j1nENjZNwu0/видео.html
Read Alex Sheremet's essay on why Donald Trump was poised to win: www.automachination.com/joy-kamala-harris-lose-2024/
Buy Benjamin Studebaker's "Legitimacy in Liberal Democracies": www.amazon.com/Legitimacy-Liberal-Democracies-Benjamin-Studebaker/dp/1399534688/
Get the B Side to this conversation: www.patreon.com/automachination
B Side Topics: Why Allan Lichtman's "Keys to the White House" failed; pollsters had no courage; modeling presidential elections on fundamentals; the psychology of modeling; how blame is shifted on to the electorate; assessing a very mixed economy; did white collar workers punish Kamala Harris for 2023-24 layoffs; the housing market as independent of inflation metrics; why voters assess incumbents on a purely relative basis; politics of memory; inflation-adjusted median family income has not returned to Trump-era benchmarks; are liberals dropping out of politics after Trump's win; why MSNBC and other outlets are losing subscribers; why the fear narratives failed; the story of 2024 is a racial shift towards the GOP; Benjamin Studebaker on what sort of disagreement nation-states tolerate; the nature of political polarization; how political leadership has ceased to lead; folk legitimation vs. official legitimation; expanding notions of inequality
Learn about and contribute to our film, "From There To There: Bruce Ario, the Minneapolis Poet": www.gofundme.com/f/new-film-the-minneapolis-poet-bruce-ario
Subscribe to the ArtiFact podcast on Spotify: spoti.fi/3xw2M4D
Apple Podcasts: apple.co/3wLpqEV
Amazon Music: amzn.to/2SVJIxB
Podbean: bit.ly/3yzLuUo
iHeartRadio: ihr.fm/3AK942L
Read more from the automachination universe: automachination.com
Read Alex Sheremet’s (archived) essays: alexsheremet.com
Follow us on Twitter: twitter.com/automachination
Tags: #election2024 #politics #lichtman #kamalaharris #donaldtrump