Operations Management using Excel: Seasonality and Trend Forecasting

In this video I explain how to create a forecasting model in Excel for a data set that involves both trend and seasonality. I chose not to de-seasonalize data set before finding the trend parameters.
Dataset URL: Copy and Paste it into Excel or work in Google Sheets
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/...
I posted a follow up video in which you can handle multiple forecasts at the same time for multiple SKUs (Stock Keeping Units).
• Seasonality and Trend ...
An alternative method could be to use a multiple linear regression model. And I think the regression model is more practical. Yes, I have recorded a video for that as well. The link for the video is • Seasonality and Trend ...
These videos are created for the students at The College at Brockport, State University of New York. However anyone can benefit from them as they should work for any Operations Management class.

[@goforward12ify]

THIS VIDEO IS SO UNDERRATED, IT SHOULD BE ON THE TOP OF THE PAGES

[@arifrayhan1126]

exactly

[@AnkitPatel234]

Exactly. Love from India.

[@OscarFromIndia]

I agree

[@Rajdeepdey943]

Absolutely

[@zazisosibo6015]

Nothing but the truth there.I passed an interview practical with this video.

[@debanshumajumdar9790]

Dear Mustafa sir, the whole RUclips community, and the whole world are blessed to have you here. You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed. It was like you were reading my mind and answering all the questions that I have.
Thank you sir

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@fabianl9465]

This video is literally a must for everyone that works as a planner. It’s one of the best educational videos out there

[@fsociety_]

Hy, did this help you in planning in real life? I am a Production Planner myself and I want to know which forecast method people normally use in forecasting demand in real life scenarios.

[@randominternetviewer166]

​@@fsociety_ It depends on the data. This one he presented works well if the data has obvious repeatable patterns that repeat every year, like the one shown in the chart. If it doesnt have that, this method will easily fail.

[@jamesjennings9438]

This is absolutely an AWESOME technique! The seasonal adjustment is exactly what I needed and I put this into actual use -- Thank you for helping me look good to my boss!

[@97NRBhgfdkjsvfdkjl]

Wow, incredibly helpful. I learned more from this video than I've learned from the actual class all semester.

[@jabulanisello3712]

This is the best explanation I've found and it basically answered even the questions I didn't know I had. Thank you. I've subscribed to your channel as well.

[@matiuszhu8967]

Thank god i found your video man. You don't know how much I needed this before my interview. LIFESAVERRRRR

[@anneliesehanson5256]

This video was so incredibly helpful! I love how you explained everything.

[@abhinavgupta1195]

You answered all the questions that were coming into my mind as the video progressed.

[@josephmastropietro5810]

Incredibly helpful. Great walkthrough, I was able to replicate the process with my data and drive some great discussion.

[@bensmith6987]

This is much clear explanation than my prof who has 30 years of experience. Thank you so much.

[@peterdoherty4558]

It was great when you taught me years ago and it's even better now that I have some real world experience. Fantastic!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you Peter! Nice to hear from you!

[@shubhamraje6122]

Very well depicted. Follows all baby steps. Must watch for a newbie learner!

[@dwnttttttyyyyypppppp]

Many videos are watching, so im here and only this video I got the answer. Thankyou, love from Indonesia.

[@Kentucky-ev7bd]

Very nice!! Love it!! The only thing I would say add is a quick explanation of key terms. Slope, intercept, seasonality.

[@iPururin]

Straightforward and practical presentation. Thank you.

[@rounaksinghbuttar9083]

God you're a genius. No one else has explained forecasting using Excel for Production and Operations Management as well as you sir.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@Rabixter]

Nice one, I liked the seasonality index idea. It's very simple but still gives a decent accuracy.

[@zorkminer]

I don't comment much, but this video is amazing. I'm impressed that a video so short could be so informative.

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@Chanheegogo]

Thank you so much for sharing this technique. Very clear and simple to understand for even beginner for demand planning Thank you so much. I will try to utilize this method in my workplace

[@jbyxxx]

Thanks for such detailed explanation. I was looking for something else but now know something new :)

[@michaelyounes29]

Absolutely fantastic explanation. You sir are a star!

[@ahammadgalib5810]

Awesome video, easy explanation, great presentation. Thank you very much. 👍

[@utopia800]

Thanks a lot man, amazing tutorial!!!! So happy to find this :) just simply brilliant

[@selimcanpolat8664]

just predicted my future bills on excel w/ this method, thanks a lot!

[@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030]

Amazing video, i was looking for something like this for a while. Subscribed.

[@OldMenAreHip1]

Incredible vid. Helped me on my exam with seasonal linear trend forecasting

[@daniel_ptt]

Sir, you are the man of career development, love your videos

[@atgny]

Thank you for this very detailed review of forecasting! Amazing!!!! :)

[@kellyzimmermann3391]

This has helped me so much!! Thank YOU Mustafa!

[@godfreyharris4582]

Dr. Mustafa is a Genous. He makes complex work easy to do.

[@y020380]

This was extremely helpful, THANKYOU!

[@southbayeric]

Great example my friend. Very useful!

[@kamsun508]

dude, it is a amazing video , very helpful. thank you a lot

[@ektajain334]

AMAZING EXPLANATION- also learnt renaming of a range. thanks sir

[@deuskrieg5635]

This video gets the number 1 sport for the most informative 13 minutes of my planning life.

[@mcanbolat]

Thanks.

[@jieyeye7302]

Many thanks! Really good explained!

[@shikhajaiswal5148]

This is the best video I came across on model for forecast

[@haveyoumetpia]

I got everything that I need. Well explained. Thank you to the creator of this video.
New subscriber here 🤗

[@oddmik7273]

Bravo Monsieur,
Thank you for your explications.

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

One of the great video regarding forecasting. 👏 Thank you so much need more video like this. Thank you so much.

[@linaf6299]

Thank you Mustafa.. very clear & helpful!!

[@didimples]

amazing breakdown of the forecast methods!

[@dianap.carlos4934]

Excellent video. Thank you very much for your help Dr. Canbolat.

[@qianwu1873]

This is exactly what I was looking for!! Super helpful for my upcoming interview.

[@patrickfranciotti6212]

Thank you @mustafa. Saved my life with this video. Definitely subscribing.

[@AdamTauro]

Thank you Mustafa! Very helpful!

[@woodypham6474]

I hope that you will keep doing forecast for different kind of business sales. That would be great

[@PradeepRamesh-ew7uh]

Simple to understand and Great video

[@valentinapatino8215]

Thank you so much for sharing your knowledge! An amazing technique

[@drinkbeerandchillwithmzohm4507]

You should get an award for this video sir 🙌🏿🙌🏿🙌🏿

[@shashankvaradhi9290]

Very very informative. Great explanation. Thank you so much!!

[@madinat.3863]

you're the best! thanks for explaining

[@Simon-pt4ox]

perfect video! thank you very much for this!

[@DavidSme]

Hi Mustafa, very helpful video. Your voice is also pleasant to listen to. Thank you!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@knockoffnomad]

Thank you! This was so helpful

[@lennywilson2702]

Thank you.Excellent video.

[@aloy5678]

Excellent Video , Thank you so much Mustafa

[@peiyuanshao6248]

Thank you! That's pretty helpful.

[@khaledalharbi4028]

Thank you so much! I've learned a lot from this video.

[@yordanmihaylov5986]

Perfect video , very helpful

[@varunsurya6811]

I loved this method. Superb.

[@mahadev2023]

Thank you Dr. Mustafa. You described very well.

[@azizony123]

Awesome Mustafa, very well explained........

[@aminualiyu555]

Thank you, so much for this insight.

[@diegocanales6783]

Thanks, so muchh the video was really clear and the document help a lot to put It in practise. thanks a lot again.

[@angiesmith3386]

Amazing! Thank you! I agree with FSK... you made this so easy!

[@SuperAchraf91]

Well explained thank you so much Mustafa

[@cowboybuddhaful]

THANK YOU! This is great.

[@elenamohanty517]

Hi Mustafa, this was great! thanks a lot for your video!

[@mcanbolat]

Couple of people criticized that I didn't de-seasonalize before finding the trend. No one can prove that the model will be superior if we de-seasonalize. Below is a link with a small simulation with random dataset. You can refresh it in Excel using F9 or you can enter a value in an empty cell to refresh in Google. I calculated the MAPE for both deseasonalized and not deseasonalized models. I have shown empirically that there is no obvious benefit of removing seasonality before finding the trend parameters.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YVjz1IZT8Hd489ZCifAIM5yTiuyk0qdcoCrdWIbBruk/edit?usp=sharing

[@lalu225]

Thank you very much, your video is very useful. Also, I tested the excel sheet that simulates the difference between the two trending approaches and it seems like the the differences in error is indeed random. Do you know if there are any papers or studies suggesting otherwise? Where did people get this impression from, that one needs to de-seasonalise before finding the trend? I'd be interested if this is true over say 100k trials - I'll attempt to run a python script to test it and check the distribution of outcomes

[@mcanbolat]

lalu225 I haven’t looked at the literature but if someone proves that there is no benefit it may get published. It would be interesting to try this on a large number of datasets and report empirical output.

[@helloh5727]

Thabks for the videos man, I am an operations and supply chain management major and your videos are amazing.

[@ammaralolaqi7627]

Thank you a lot Dr. Mustafa for this great video.
I have 2 queries:
- is there a name for this forecasting method ?
- What about if you had a data set for one year only, 12 months ? (Means January do not repeat etc...). Anything will be applied differently then ?

[@amithmihiranga1913]

Thank you so much. You made my task so much easy with this nice video

[@chrisdireduryan]

This video is so educating it made me post a comment. Couldn't be better. Thanks a million

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@vishalkulkarni9227]

Great Video, This Video should be at Top...Amazing learned alot and would like to use this in real life. Thank you so much 😊

[@drmilk1100]

best video for forecasting!!!

[@anihusein6168]

Dear Mustafa, you are great.

[@sebastianmakaruk7339]

Great video. Thanks so much! :)

[@TristanBailey]

Great forecast work and nice and straight forward. Many other examples are more limited and don’t go this far.

[@dalex7777]

This is GOLD. Thank you so much +MustafaCanbolat!

[@huyhelloworld]

Very useful. Thanks a lot!

[@hassanalianees5530]

This was so helpful. Thanks

[@ashupashu5559]

Nice video Mr. Canbolat.

[@helpmetoreach10ksubsbefore97]

It's very useful. Thank you

[@jugalpaleja6431]

Super helpful video, I am requesting you make more video other forecast methods or help with link if it's already available somewhere. Thanks a Ton Mustafa

[@AtomTiger3460]

What a godly video *praise*

[@alexpressley4469]

sindex! Heck yeah. Great video.

[@KevinNguyenSESE]

Very well done!

[@rohanchadha3506]

Great video!

[@mohammaddanish1670]

Great 👍🏻 explained well

[@thanhthaovothi3576]

Love your video so muchhhh!

[@mcanbolat]

Thank you!

[@MohaAlraed]

thanks brother
i will start my new job as an executive manager for a small factory and this is going to help a lot

[@MohaAlraed]

few question
what if there are "controllable" factors that will effect the demand, for example, huge random advertising, or getting new businesses to order the products in large number
I mean it will not be just seasonal, is there a way to determine the future demand?
I have one in mind but not sure if it's scientific.

[@danelleduardorapozoramirez1030]

@@MohaAlraed my take is that since those events weren't seasonal you shouldn't take it into account when doing your forecast.

[@franckkarinamaryo1336]

Thank you very much Dr

[@eduardocastilleja6665]

Great tutorial.

[@AzyTabz]

Thank you very much Mustafa

[@evguenivassiliev4778]

Amazing!! Thank you!

[@SanjayVerma-bv6dt]

Thank you. It's a good one.

[@johntimothyvillacorte9115]

Awesome!! 👍🏼

[@sawstem9505]

Great work

[@pinkaura6983]

Thank you so much for this

[@jacksambrano25]

GREAT JOB - THANKS :)