2023 BOISE HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS!
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- Опубликовано: 31 дек 2022
- 2023 BOISE HOUSING MARKET PREDICTIONS!
You're hearing it all, the people selling fear are crying a massive housing market crash will be here in 2023, the NAR says the housing market will slow but will still show an average gain of just over 1% for 2023, and some others saying that the housing market will just even out. While I can't predict exactly what will happen in the 2023 Boise housing market, I can rely on my experience and data sources to try to analyze some things we may see coming in the 2023 housing market.
No matter what happens, or if anyone is right regarding 2023 Boise housing market predictions, people are still moving to Idaho, moving to Boise, and finding Boise a great place to live. So reach out, visit our website, follow us on instagram, do all the things, and reach out to us so we can have a consultation to make sure you are making the best housing decision for you and your family.
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Boise Idaho Realtor
Eagle Idaho Realtor
Meridian Idaho Realtor
Nampa Idaho Realtor
2023! What will it be? Well, for sure it will be interesting.....
Boise is going to see a lot of supply come on the market this year with prices continuing to DROP --One thing I love about you Realtors. "It's ALWAYS a good time to buy and ALWAYS a good time to sell"
it is always a good time to buy, sell, or hold.
Always appreciate your honest and thoughtful look into the housing market. Those of you out there looking for a person who will look after your best interest in finding a home for your family..Summer is the best realtor for you. She helped my husband and I find a home that is perfect for us. More honest and hard working than any realtor we have had in 45 years of home purchasing.
Very good, I really appreciate the information presented in this video and Happy New Year to you and yours, Summer. 😊No matter what happens in 2023, I am confident that you have what it takes to get through. My family and I are very excited about the possibility of moving to the TV. Fortunately, we're in a good position to make this happen. Everything will be determined on when we get our home in peak condition for sale. We've made some great progress in 2022 after one big setback in 2021. You may be very surprised when I say this. I actually now see the possibility of real estate prices skyrocketing. It's a much smaller possibility in the short term, but in the long term a near certainty. Look forward to your future videos in 2023 and thank you for providing a lot of great information about real estate in the TV! 👍👍👍
Thanks for watching - I actually can see some scenarios where real estate home prices sky rocket in the long term. It's pretty simple supply and demand, and if new construction supply is severely restricted in the long run and existing home sellers don't have much motivation to sell due to higher rates and/or higher prices, well, there's not much reason for prices to come down. And if cost of labor and supplies continue to rise, builders can't just decide to sell homes for less money. Actually, many of the builders are revamping their plans already and building smaller homes so that they can be more affordable, as well as working on engineering floor plans and building methods that will cost them less in overall construction costs.
@@SummerAstonRealEstate Yes, you got it. The rate of inflation will tell us everything, and I believe it will increase over the long term. The problems overseas are getting bigger and could get worse quickly, so we need to keep our eyes on that too. There is so much swirling; I can't help but think that we are about to have a complete restructuring of economies around the world. I've never seen this much economic uncertainty and instability in my lifetime. It will be a roller coaster ride, but it will get resolved one way or another.
A flood of inventory is going to continue to build in 2023. Sellers who may need to sell in the next 2-4 years should consider selling now while values are still supported by comps. That wont be the case in a year.
According to Census, about 2M people get married per year, the divorce rate is 55%, and the home ownership rate is 65%. This means that approximately 715,000 homes will be sold due to divorce.
According to the CDC, about 3.5M people die in the us every year. If 50% of those result in a moving situation, and 65% of those scenarios are home owners forced to sell, thats 1,137,500 homes going on the market.
Combined, these two factors alone show that about 2M homes will be sold every year because of necessity. In the above scenarios, people wont “wait it out” or “rent their home”, they will sell at whatever point the market is at the time.
she is spot on.
Denial isn't just a river in Egypt.
Boise number two behind Austin for house price drops
Hi I'm Jessie I currently work for one of the biggest cabinet companies in Idaho Western Idaho cabinets located in Boise Idaho last month our company laid off 40 people and our cabinet building inventory was reduced this month another 37 people are being laid off this is a significant amount of people for a cabinet company who last year work 12 plus hours five to six days a week my hours were cut to 40 for 4 days a week this month 32 hours 4 days a week one of our building contractors who builds luxury homes has cut significantly the amount of cabinets ordered from us. This speaks to the current economy which is seemingly diminishing. I am in search for a home myself as a first-time homeowner buyer and waiting to see what the market does in the next 6 months before I buy.
Thank you for sharing your experience and I am sorry to hear they are laying people off. Western Idaho Cabinets is an important player in the Boise House Market. This in an interesting indicator, because what is happening is that builders are not building all the spec homes anymore so they can keep close control of inventory. So most builders are switching back to semi-custom build jobs, so you won't get cabinet orders until someone gets to that stage in a build job. Due to the cost of labor, supplies, and land, builders can't just lower prices to keep the market rolling along. So they are having to have very low inventory in order to keep prices higher. This is an unfortunate problem that we will have at least through this year and next- even though interest rates are high and people are getting financially stressed, home prices will stay high unless we get more inventory. And your huge drop in demand in cabinets is showing what a huge drop in inventory we are coming upon with new construction. And existing home sellers have very, very little motivation to sell if they have a 2.5% interest rate and they'd have to buy at a 7% rate, which is keeping inventory low too. The only way prices will come down is if people have to sell under distress so we get an increase in inventory, and so far, that is not happening yet. As far as being a first time buyer goes, carefully weigh out rent costs for x amount of time over using that money for a mortgage and at least getting into the market and putting your money to work for you. If you will stay in the house that you buy now for longer than 5 years, and you feel your job is secure, then it is worth getting into the market while you can, and I would suggest looking at the builders that are offering good incentives to buy down your rate and lock it in for the life of the build job so you can close with a lower rate. Because if rates drop on their own later this year, home sales and prices will go up. Feel free to reach out if you ever want to discuss what may work for you.
Excellent analysis. Loved your disclaimer! With interest rates going up and inventories staying low, I don’t see a real estate market crash in the near future. I think we have seen all the reductions in the $700k to $1,200k homes we are going to see. Especially in the Treasure Valley market. It will stay a key area for retirement as other states like Texas fade and that will keep it very desirable. Just my humble opinion.
Thank you! Builders trying to get rid of inventory are still coming down, but even with this first little week of January with a little bit of new inventory coming on from sellers, no one is really coming down as much as everyone thinks they should. So, you may be right, that we've seen just about the largest drops we will see, and if someone lists high, they'll have to drop accordingly, but maybe this closer to $500k average sales price will stick for the year.
Great analysis as always! Im curious how the new trend of $1.5T+ in government spending will impact interest rates. I expect interest rates will continue to increase in Q2 of 2023, then stabilize. Rates are definitely not coming down any time soon! Its very sad to see, actually as new homeowners have a much higher chance of being priced out of the market.
It's true. I am very worried that first time homebuyers will continue to be priced out in the long run, hence the "need" for massive apartment complexes going up everywhere. There may be a sweet spot this year, maybe this January or February, where interest rates are "lower" (around 6.5%) and sellers and builders are willing to do deep negotiations on inventory left over from the winter..but if rates rise later this year, even if prices fall, it just doesn't even out. The only winner is cash investor buyers who don't need a loan but can take advantage of lower prices.
@@SummerAstonRealEstate that’s what I’ve been sayin - black rock, soaking up homes, continuing to create the renter class
@@subjecttochrist Those junior high history lessons about the "Caste System" are seeming to be more relevant to our modern day American....
what's your opinion on the rental communities popping up like the community off of Victory Rd near Meridian?
I think it’s a sign that homes are not going to get more affordable to purchase in the long run, and the deep pocket mass investors know that, so they are investing in more single family home rental communities. They are popping up all over the country. People who can afford to buy but are waiting for a theoretical chance at a perfect intersection of low rates and low prices need to think about why investors are building entire communities of single family rental homes.
Liquidity continues to be drained out of the economy. All asset classes will be effected especially those assets that are illiquid which includes Real Estate.
Bond market is indicating about the, 1st Q 2024 Fed cuts rates, Even as early as Q3/Q4 of 2023. Mortgage rates will be in mid 4s.... I think the move up buyer will be back if that happens. I am thinking of listing my house than. Curious where you read builders in Treasure Valley cut building by 75%. I don't doubt it, I'm just curious what the source is?
If our rates drop to mid 4s, we will have very low inventory, well, maybe an increase at first for people wanting to sell getting out while they can buy with a lower rate, and bidding wars again. Our market didn't really get affected until we went over 5%, but really more so over 5.5%. It seemed like most people could afford current prices with a 4-5% interest rate. The statistic came from an email update I received from the Boise Regional Realtors Association. It was a number specifically comparing building permits issued for Ada County from September of 2021 to September of 2022. The national statistic was also given, but I believe it was lower for the month.
Housing prices can continue to decline in even in a rate dropping environment... rates were dropping from '08 through '12 yet prices continued to drop.
Don't forget, the Fed is bringing pain on purpose.... there will be hundreds of thousands if not in the millions of more jobs lost this year.
Savings rate is hitting record lows, credit card debt is hitting record highs, and white color jobs are already in steep decline; blue collar and service jobs will follow this year. ChatAI will destroy customer service and tech support jobs within 5 years. People are dying at incredible rates; over the next 20 years as the boomers die off and sell off their assets there are not enough people to take their place or buy their extra real estate.
No matter what the interest rates are, if you don't have savings, and your credit is destroyed from debt living, then you're not a house buyer.
We may be entering a 30-40+ year housing bear market with a gradual decline in prices (ups and downs still just like now, only the trend is eternally down instead of eternally up)
Tldr- don't underestimate the pain that the Fed has promised to bring.
The bond market is pricing in rate cuts because it thinks the economy will be in the toilet due to the FED over tightening. In that environment, you really think people will be rushing to buy and banks willing to lend? I personally think the bond market is wrong. It’s still stuck in the mindset of the low inflation environment of the last decade. There is just too much money now in the system sloshing around chasing assets and transmitting into the economy (wealth effect gone bad). Once the FED has reached terminal FED funds rate, it may have to ramp up QT to raise long term rates if people are still chasing up assets (too loose financial conditions). So don’t get your hopes up that mortgage rates will come down soon, unless the FED breaks something and the economy really goes into the toilet.
I like your analysis but when you mentioned (at 6 minutes) that sellers can sell for lower but won’t because they couldn’t get their head wrapped the thought that their neighbors sold for higher prices, I disagree to a degree.
I remodelled a house extensively,
it cost me so much - lumber skyrocketed when I bought it, windows , everything was so expensive that if I sell it under a certain price, I will loose money …
Thanks for your perspective. You are right. The statement I made was a generality applying to the majority of sellers right now, but there are some potential sellers who would, due to various circumstances loose money if they sold. But most wouldn't actually have to sell their house for less than they owe. Again, not all, just the majority.
This also goes for all those who cash out refied with very little equity left. They’d be underwater if they can’t sell above a certain price. So they won’t.
I always enjoy Summer's Reports. I'm also trying to encourage Family to move to Idaho. We are a Conservative Bunch that have never fit the demographics of horrid California.
Thank you! Give me a shout out when you're ready to come, and in the meantime, hopefully I'll create a video that will be the right message they needed to hear to get on board with you, but I am sure the future fall out of some of the state's policies will be convincing enough to them.
@@SummerAstonRealEstate ~You're welcome! And indeed.
Kj Nighbird, I used to tell my family to move here too. However, in the part of California, I'm from the home prices are less and jobs pay more than the Boise area. The tables have turned.
@@shell-bell614 If someone wanted to leave CA only to be able to get more home for their money elsewhere, then, depending on where you are coming from, you are right, homes in Boise can be more than other areas, like Bakersfield. However, most people are also considering things like safety, school choices, less expensive overall cost of living, politics, etc.. and Boise offers much of what people want in those areas. Even if the house here is more expensive, things like property taxes, gas, food, energy costs, etc.. are all much less. But my daughter lives in a part of California where they can't take their baby to their neighborhood park because it is overtaken with homeless people and they dig through her trash every night. I can't think of one park in the entire Treasure Valley that I would be worried to take my grandchild to. So, for many people, paying a bit more for a house but gaining peace of mind and more freedom for schooling, etc.. is worth it.
@Summer Aston Real Estate
Don't get me wrong.. I love Idaho compared to California.
Idaho was always known as a better/safer place to raise a family. However, things are changing here. crime, cleanliness, prices, traffic & education.
The differences between Idaho & California are less & less recognizable as years pass.
Idaho has been in the mainstream news for some serious crimes lately, missing boy in Fruitland. The killing of the college students, man shooting at cars on the highway yesterday & the on-going Lori Vallo case😬. I never thought I would see 👀 such things happening here.
Many people say Idaho is becoming the "New California." & right now, it really looks that way, unfortunately. 😢
I'm thinking about buying a single family home in Boise. I'm not worried about interest rates and I'm hoping prices will continue to go down, because I can buy it off if I need to.
When you decide to buy, let me know..Happy to help.
Haha 😄 it would have been better to describe your market as a sh!tshow.
Well would have been a shorter video for sure! It is all over the place, but that is to be expected, coming out of the craziness of 2020-early 2022, which was not good either. Things always have to get a bit chaotic before they settle into balance. Which hopefully we will, maybe, one day, if we're lucky.
There are a few abandoned homes in Ada county. I just made an offer on 3 (unfinished) homes from a local builder at cost...they've been sitting just framed since late May.
But ya I do agree with the price cuts coming up...that's gonna happen 100% l
Love the content 🙌🏻
Thank you for watching and commenting!
Builders Giving Away Inventory and it is going to get really bad this year.
KB Homes reported earnings.
• EPS $2.47 vs. $1.91 y/y, estimate $2.86 (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Revenue $1.94 billion, +16% y/y, estimate $1.99 billion
• Deliveries 3,786, +2.9% y/y, estimate 3,961
• Net orders 692, -80% y/y, estimate 2,013
• Backlog 7,662, -27% y/y, estimate 8,795
Cancellation rate 68%!!
The housing market today is different than in 2008/2009. There are positives currently. Since the Fed kept rates low for over ten years, most people who have mortgages have low-interest rates. Banks have much different exposure to the housing market as the US government implemented leverage rules and other safeguards. The bank CEOs today include many who were in the thick of it back then, know the nightmare the banks went through, and will do everything to avoid a repeat. However, there are some negatives due to the low-rate environment. People are trapped in their current homes because selling a house to move to a new house is prohibitive, with higher mortgage rates. You can’t transfer your 3% mortgage rate and mortgage rates today are above 6.5%. Mortgage originations have plummeted, as have housing sales data. Add in the pull forward from 2020-2021 that cleared out inventories; there is a housing market problem.
Homebuilders are going to take the brunt of this problem. They also learned from the GFC and have better managed their businesses. The problem is demand. Consumers stuck in their homes with low mortgages will not pay a larger mortgage, and new home buyers are seeing sticker shock not just with the elevated home prices but when they apply for the mortgage and see what they will pay each month.
Homebuilders have a lot of supply coming onto the markets as they were very busy in late 2020 into 2021. They had to pay up for materials and appliances and higher labor costs. Passing the higher costs on to the new buyers combined with now higher mortgage rates creates a nasty problem.
When new home sales are reported, it includes when the order was taken and doesn’t back out the cancellations. The data from now on with all housing stats is going to turn south. Home builders will be lugging more inventory as demand weakens and cancellation rates increase. They will slash prices as they always do, hitting margins that are already thin since they faced higher input costs in the last two years.
You are looking at the national building supply. We only have one KB community in the entire state of Idaho, and they only have about 5 spec homes for sale. Our builders in the valley here did not overbuild the last few years, and while things slowed for the last couple of months with interest rate instability and winter, they picked up with builders who build spec homes around the average price point by a significant amount the last couple of weeks. Of course, that is also subject to change depending on interest rates. However, builders in our area are limiting build jobs and in September of 2022, they pulled about 75% fewer building permits than the same time 2021, and in December of 2022, they pulled 89% fewer building permits than same time 2022. This shows they are indeed preparing for a slow down, but will not have inventory sitting around. Boise is not as effected by the large players in the building game like KB, Lennar, Shea, etc.. because up until last year, those builders didn't even have communities here. Now they only have a few, and there are not tons of homes sitting around empty, just a handful of spec homes. In our area, builders have not even been pouring foundations, and there is not much inventory sitting. If anything, as of now, it is getting lower, and when I look for new construction for clients right now, the options are few. It is easy to be an armchair analyst and gather data from the nation to try to make housing predictions, but things are quite different from a professional in the field, working with the buyers and builders every day, reading the local market data on a daily basis, and seeing how things are unfolding. So far, things are a bit stagnant, new homes sales are picking up in the average price point range, and inventory of new construction homes is getting lower. We will see if they build more in the spring, but based on the building permit data, we will have a serious new construction shortage by the end of 2023 if they pulled up to 89% fewer permits in the fall of 2022.
@@SummerAstonRealEstate
From a builder friend.... 2% interest buy down -- very aggressive.
Mike,
We sold 4 homes this month at Carriage Hill West! Why, because we’ve been aggressive with our quick move in home pricing AND we’re offering up to a 2% interest rate buy down upon qualification! Not only have we lowered pricing on all of our ready now and ready soon homes and offer better rates, we are including back yard packages that can also be a huge savings! Now is an excellent time to purchase a new home if you are ready. Please let me know if you would like a list of our currently available quick move in homes that you can take advantage of these opportunities. If you have already purchased a home or are no longer looking, kindly let me know and I’ll update your record.
Warmest regards,
Steve
@@googplunger yes. That is with toll brothers. They have a different business model and build mostly semi- custom. They DID buy alot of land and have several areas of dirt all over the valley. People are hesitant to purchase build
Jobs due to uncertainty of Rates, so semi custom builders have to offer rate buy downs to overcome that buyer hesitancy. Toll does have more ground to fill than some of the other builders, so they will probably continue to offer incentives like that. But they don’t build too many specs so they don’t have lots of empty homes sitting there. The spec home builder who can sell for under $500k here are doing better than the semi-custom who end up in that middle land of $500-$700k where lots of people are getting loans. And of course the more custom builders who cater to cash buyers have always moved more slowly and that market will continue to chug along too. It’s so important to understand micro markets on order understand the how the little building blocks work together to build the bigger picture.