Freight Market Update & Forecast (June 23): Tender Rejections Not Correlating With Spot Market
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- Опубликовано: 2 июн 2024
- On one hand, we can see that tender rejections this week are still climbing which is usually great, but unfortunately it is not translating to the spot market at the moment. Why? Maybe because we are seeing a delayed reaction or so I hope. Volumes are really suffering especially for reefers and flatbeds- and flatbeds experienced a 5 ent drop week over week and are now trending below the 5 year average.
Charts: drive.google.com/drive/folder...
Volumes (OTVI): This shows us real data of how many tenders are offered by shippers to carriers- how much freight there is in the market. Because offerings happen in advance, we can see what the future volumes will look like.
Rejection Rates (OTRI): How many contract carriers refuse from loads? This is real time data of loads that were rejected by carriers- the more rejections, the higher the rates, and the more loads end up on the loadboard.
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Your analysis is getting better all the time, pretty much to the point that I log onto the channel instead of looking for updates myself ;)
I think the answer is it's Mega carriers booking loads from the spot market. I'm with a big carrier that told drivers on a conference call that they are booking loads off the spot market. Which says how will a normal person outbid one of these big mega carriers. I think these are the normal rates before that pandemic happened and we may not see an increase with rates
Good point!
Damn, brains and beauty, so refreshing listening to you
Miranda,,,,, I got another owner operator guy just met him last week and gave him your channel's address in Michigan,,, he subscribed your channel,,, so Miranda you work for us but don't forget I try to work for you too 🤣😂 Thanks for the video I will try to watch Q&A today take care have a good week everyone,,
Thank you for always keeping us updated ❤
I really appreciate your work an analysis. I hope you are doing well with your work. 👍🏻
Seriously though…..
One of the best trucking data analysis channels available
Excellent work
I always learn something
Looks like you got a new office. Let’s go!
Probably they just now know that if there is no volume, they will always find someone willing to haul cheap freight.
Don't worry about driving us insane, it's walking distance. Lol
Absolutely. I feel like I got there a couple months ago. In the last four to six weeks it's been fully confirmed.
Been there I set up a tent already I’m camping there.
I hope y'all are hanging in there, I'm an aspiring owner operator 😅 this channel is absolutely amazing, there's not another channel that comes even remotely close to the content and information she produces for us FOR FREE.
i love it when you talk about flatbeds
A lot of trucks came down south and caused over capacity. Also the prices went up on produce and most shippers don’t wanna pay the increased prices coming from the south of Texas which in turn made Laredo McAllen area a dead zone this past week.
You’ve a true masterpiece at what you’re doing 👍🙏
Just in case, all truck drivers, if you would like to protest, all you have to do is simply delete all of the tracking apps on your phone. That is tracking your location, which is also increasing the volume of trucks in every city. That is why they can decrease the value of the load.
You are doing a great job keep it up thanks for keeping me informed ❤❤❤
Thanks for another wonderful video, nice information.
Thank you “Professor Miranda”
Same. I'm with a medium size company, I don't know if they are booking also from the spot, but they move me constantly, is not great but is consistent income, so for now it's ok.
Let’s Go! ❤Have a Great Weekend 😊
Thank you for the information!
Thank you...We should start seeing the fall out soon of all the older trucks taken off the roads in Calif...
Thank you for the info Miranda! )
Thanks prof ! Tough week
Keep us updated thank you
Hi Ms. Miranda.
We appreciate you!
You are a blessing 🙏 thanks for sharing 😊
@@Trucking-MadeSuccessful Will do
That was not me- it's a scammer. I just removed them from my channel!
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful copy! I figured that it was soI didn't reply back to them. Thanks for the heads up! 🤟
How many drivers have exit the market? Wondering how many are surviving...
This week we lost a net of 753 carriers. I need to find for hire trucking job data to see if those carriers are being soaked up by other carriers though. But capacity is still an issue- was just looking at reefer capacity and it is "adequate"- no surplus which is good, but also no shortage.
Hello again I love information you give off
Hey once again I always try sign your email never let me in
Thanks 💯
Hello from N.Carolina Miranda
Thank you for you videos i get question is their any video you talk about how to setup new broker and how to do the paperwork thank you that would me
Thank you 😊
I’m so happy to be part of your audience. I’m new to trucking and notice that you mentioned freight cost around $1.60 while I have seen reports of average cost around $3.50. I’m surely missing something. Can you clarify?
The 1.60 is without fuel surcharge- linehaul only. In terms of 3.50 per mile, I have not seen such rates (average) for any equipment on the load board
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful sorry, my mistake.
“The average shipping rate in the U.S. is around $3.25 per mile as of 2023. Down roughly 3% lower than average last year. The Midwest of the US costs the most per mile, with an average flatbed rate of $3.12 per mile.”
Maybe they are talking about what shippers are paying brokers, but I can tell you that this is not what brokers are paying carriers unfortunately. Goes to show how much they pocket!
Also depends on if you are talking about dry versus reefer
@@user-xf2cv5or4m can you elaborate please?
thank you so much .
Is it possible somehow to forecast by using these data ?
Greetings from Flagstaff.
As a member of the industry I have specific hobbies and interest
HOWEVER
My actual skills are patients and determination.
Looking beautiful today
Do all tender rejections reflected on that graph go the spot market? Some shippers have contracts with multiple carriers. Do they have to get rejected by all of them before it becomes an actual tender rejection?
What if UPS strikes and they reject their own shipments???
OTRI usually goes through a chain and ends up trickling down Yes you are correct in the fact that shippers will go to multiple carriers to try to sell that load and if they are rejecting, the load will likely end up on the spot market. Why do OTRI and Spot correlate? Well because if contract carriers are rejecting freight, more of it ends up on the spot market AND as spot rates increase, more carriers reject contract freight and turn to the spot market (which is what we saw in 2021). But now, we might be seeing a temporary inverse relationship as contract carriers are re-negotiating their contract rates, and some of them are turning to the spot market. Hope it makes sense!
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful I was gonna ask if they renegotiate and it still counts on OTRI as a rejection. It makes more sense if you had someone dedicated that you trusted in the first place to try and renegotiate. Thanks for for the explanation.
You may want to consider removing 2020, 2021, and 2022 from your average. Those years are outliers due to the pandemic and are messing up your averages/outlook. Also, I do not think any of the last fiver years had the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to slow the economy down. We've been back and forth with China over imports for the past six years so things are different.
Arbitrarily removing outliers is not a valid approach in statistics. The data are real world data, even if they skew the statistics. Use median if you want to eliminate the skew from outliers, like they do with housing and income data.
@@edwardstanton3571 And yet the government economic reports are littered with instances of removing critical data in order to make the numbers look better. It all seems to be a shell game in order to advance agendas.
Good morning, Miranda! What is this other space, which we've never seen before,
at the beginning and end of this video?
Good morning! It’s my office :)
@@TruckingMadeSuccessful Is it new? From everything else before (including your bi-weekly Sunday livestreams), I figured your normal space is your "home office."
It is new
PLEASE GET ACOUSTIC PANELS! I really enjoy your channel, however, there are more times than not, when I am listening to you that the sound is very sharp in my speakers.
When we hope the market will come good😢
I didn't know Elizabeth Hurley got into the trucking business
Its not just load rates but also dot at scales really makes you hate this job sometimes with all their stupid rules and over regulations
Will continue to go up= profits i know things 😊
Y'all can count on by September 2023 the layoffs will be 10k plus everyday including weekends and thats facts. Stayed tuned. This is going tobe a great time in buy investments.
nice
How would I know if the load is double brokered vs co-brokered?
I haven't come across any co brokered loads so I am not sure. Double brokers on DAT usually have an excellent credit score and 5 star reviews (like 10-50 of them) and yet they have only been in business for a year or less. And they use RIGZ to set up a lot of the time
We have not seen the worst yet. Wait for August, September, October and November
It’ll be busy as hell…. Watch
Have you been OTR ?
Had truck booked @ $5470 with BFS Logistics from Fresno, CA to Atlanta.
Booked the load Monday, cor tuesday pickup.
Truck got to pickup, shipper advises driver they don't have enough product yet and load will be ready tomorrow.
I request layover from broker, they send a TONU.
Hour later ask me to take the load for $5000,
I tell them no.
Monday market was great.
Tuesday it was crap.
I ended up covering him for wednesday pickup, and again broker screwed me.
Finally got something with Schneider.
Funny thing was on wednesday I saw BFS Posting the same load for $4700.
Should be named Bull f****** Sh** logistics.
Dry van
Did you see CA is raising their IFTA rates 2 times this year?!
EEEEK! Leave it to CA to screw something up even more than it is already
The answer is not enough people are buying because of inflation mixed with an overage of drivers. More drivers than demand. The cure is either drivers exit the industry or people suddenly find money to spend.
❤
❤❤
Ready, let’s goooooo!
Dispatcher looking for remote job!
The CEO of the company I work for said there is a drought at the Panama Canal and ships are being delayed which is affecting loads.
Droughts are affecting oceans now?😅
Survival of the fittest 🙃
We need to boycot carrier 411 brokers put whatever they want on their and screw drivers left and right since it does not affect them now
@Trucking-MadeSuccessful Well theirs the national owner operators associaton that started the boycot already , i dont know at the moment what else can be done to bring down Carrier 411 but i do know we need unity
That was not me replying. I have a ton of scammers on here- just blocked them.
Tender rejection girl
I did $5500 MN-AZ $2100 AZ-ID $3000 WY-WI past week.
As a team?
That's about 4k miles. Very tough on single logbook
@@saywhatnow2 yea thats what I was trying to figure out we have to ride dirty to make money now a days
Tell us another story about sitting at home
How many miles ....because money numbers are irelevant
Democrat policies are destroying commerce.
I love your videos
And…i love YOU
Please marry me🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪
Blah too much math ma’am
But I guess I will have homework this week 😊
Thanks for the info 👻
If y’all don’t see what’s happening to America right now getting bleeding out from within then this problem we having is part your fault
I am going to try add your email again I don't think anyone will put they number across web good day safety always first