From the comments and my own, there is a tremendous amount of reluctance to invest at the moment. I think the oct budget is a huge thing its an indication of how this is going to play out. Building more properties will take a few years even if they manged it. The biggest ingredient is CGT we know Labour are going to make a grab, landlords are already selling up in droves. Personally i would wait see then pounce, buy at the height of this fear and grab some big discounts, bake in the profits for when it does go back up in a while.
100% my plan but… I don’t even know when the hight of fear is… I talk to many scared people now and discounts are out there! Thanks for the comment and view buddy!
@@stuartgunn8745 I’m waiting as well, it’s prudence. In the meantime, I’ve bought a place for development and a holiday let, so diversified with the skill set I’ve learnt. Air BnB in a city is another option but needs more input or costs for someone else to clean and check it. But should be more profitable per property. I’ve noticed a lot of really good deals lately (BTL) - maybe landlords selling before the October budget. These are normally reduced further so I’m assuming there’s a little panic for some.
With the UK having a birth rate of 1.5 and the baby boomers in the range 60-80, do you not worry that the UK housing market could go the same way as Italy or Japan over the next 25 years?
Personally no, we don’t have to have the babies to get the population up. We have millions of people from all over the world who want to live in the U.K. I have two maids in my house in Dubai, within 2 days they were asking if I knew how I could get family members into the U.K… no shortage of people, just open up the doors a little if you need to! Japan and uk are very different on the global stage. English is a very spoken language, our culture is already multicultural… I don’t worry personally but it is a good point!
Inflation approx 30% over the last 2 years, GDP growth prediction around 1% or less, especially with recent political outlook. We’ve had decades of prosperity and the global trade is fracturing, so higher inflation, higher interest and I’m taking the view of borrowing/ leveraging much less now and in the future. I think house prices will be strong especially with the influx of people and despite gov promise, lack of building.
Mark always really enjoy your videos Probably because they are optimistic but true. I do however worry about labour Although I can't see them getting near house targets especially building on green belt
I’m an optimist it true, but I’m also data lead… there is only so much you can do to damage an economy even if your doing it on purpose which they won’t! It will be fine, it always is! Capitalism always wins!
How would the U.K. rank against other western countries. In terms of property investing (rentals) which western country would you say is the best country?
I know the U.K. and have relationships and connections so for me it’s hard to find a better place. I would think it’s certainly up there in terms of returns etc though!
Great question, when there is high interest rates areas where affordability is stretched will be the weakest. In my opinion it’s a north south divide with the north and midlands outperforming
Yeah, or they can buy a starter home, or if they can’t afford it in their area buy in a cheaper area and rent it out ofsetting their rent and gaining access to the capital returns. I remember living in Clapham in 2010, I couldn’t afford to buy in that area so had to buy somewhere else and rent it out. There is always a solution!
@@InvestwithMarkParham exactly, just avoid share ownership and leasehold. I can see some many people in UK still hoping the property prices would drop. While they're renting a house or room, why don't just start with a small terrace house.
Central banks and governments are slow to react but they also over compensate. Great times ahead as those interest rates reduce further than they should 🥳🥳
OMG. Like most property owners. You are far too optimistic. The market is limited by wage growth. The Banks are crapping themselves and slashing rates before the BoE . This has to be a ruddy big red flag 🚩 for property market.
Disagree Mark.. population demographics are no longer going to keep the demand going, birth rates are falling, population is getting older. The budget coming in October will decimate the middle class, the top 1% have either left or are planning go leave. Where will this wealth come from to drive prices up? GDP has been flat for about 15 years so in nominal terms has gone down, take into account GDP per capita and people are much poorer.
Good plan, I think a dire situation lies ahead and this never ending price boom everyone is dreaming of won't happen. They want to keep pushing prices up so they can tax everyone, particularly with CGT set to soar. Elderly population, low growth, low birth rates, high immigration, falling standards of living. Yet some people think prices will rise forever. Hope isn't an investment strategy.
@@jakebespokeuk house building can’t keep up with population increase, whether from births or immigration. So supply and demand should increase prices . My places are where no more can be built and near main infrastructure & employment, so should flourish. Growth has been 5 to 7% a year ( more 2 years ago).
I hope I’m wrong but it feels as though a hard recession is coming. And that will allow large banks, pension funds and others to replace private landlords. As these entities will buy distressed properties for cash and be able comply with increasing regulations on landlords. A weak global economy and massive potential for higher energy prices means I don’t think uk rates will ever get below 3% in the foreseeable future.
A hard recession is looming if not a depression, but will be an interesting watch if financial institutions adopt their policy's to owning domestic properties although I doubt it. If rates are ever cut to below 3%, this will be a clear indicaton of how distressed the economy will be not only in the Uk but the USA & Europe too. Rates should have never been so low - for so long... fact!
It’s dirty out there no question, when ever there is tough times though good times follow. I have no reason to suspect this time will be different as it rarely is!
Your house prices expectations are more like wishful thinking, but unfortunately hope is not a strategy, and interest rates are not the only factor this time around. Not sure to understand why you wish property prices continue to increase as more people are getting priced out. There is currently a large differential as to what sellers expect to achieve by way of a sale price and what buyers are prepared/ afford to pay. The only way ‘for everybody to be ok’ is when overvaluing of properties will stop, then the number of transactions will go up and that’s what is going to be good for the economy, good for the public finances and ultimately good for the consumer who won’t have to experience tax increases and additional costs.
I totally respect this opinion. At the end of the day we all place our bets and reap our rewards or losses. Let’s re visit in a year and see if they have gone up or down !
If you believe what you are saying here, I'm worried for you. You say prices double every 10 years. Did property prices rise between 1989 and 1995? No. They dropped by nearly 20% nationally and more in some places. Best of luck!
You’re forgetting the 109% increase from 1985-1990… I said 10-15 years and I said on average :-) honestly though, thanks for watching and taking the time to comment
@@InvestwithMarkParham ok yes, but that was due to people buying with two wages where previously it was just one, and there was large wage growth especially in London! There are literally no factors acting similarly now to boost affordability and therefore house prices. Interest rates dropping by a percentage or so won't do it because the house price peak was achieved in 2022 when rates were 1.25%, not 5% AND people had COVID cash stuffed into their pockets! Now that has all gone and we have zero growth in the economy, where in your view is all the money going to come from to inflate house prices past their 2022 peak?
@@picknmix39 honestly…. Probably cheaper borrowing + Wage Growth + Investment + inflation etc. if you just halved the interest rates we currently have my portfolio would have an additional free cash flow of approx 7500pcm so I would be able to buy more…. Demand would increase supply remains stagnate. I guess my point is every time anyone says “this time it’s different” they tend to be expensive words. We don’t always know how or where or why until it happens but it always always happens. Like a roulette table that always goes black, sometimes it bounces in the red but it always always goes black!
@@InvestwithMarkParham does it, in your view, always go black (i.e.the value of your property asset increases) when you correct nominal values for inflation?
From the comments and my own, there is a tremendous amount of reluctance to invest at the moment.
I think the oct budget is a huge thing its an indication of how this is going to play out.
Building more properties will take a few years even if they manged it.
The biggest ingredient is CGT we know Labour are going to make a grab, landlords are already selling up in droves.
Personally i would wait see then pounce, buy at the height of this fear and grab some big discounts, bake in the profits for when it does go back up in a while.
100% my plan but… I don’t even know when the hight of fear is… I talk to many scared people now and discounts are out there! Thanks for the comment and view buddy!
@@stuartgunn8745 I’m waiting as well, it’s prudence. In the meantime, I’ve bought a place for development and a holiday let, so diversified with the skill set I’ve learnt. Air BnB in a city is another option but needs more input or costs for someone else to clean and check it. But should be more profitable per property.
I’ve noticed a lot of really good deals lately (BTL) - maybe landlords selling before the October budget. These are normally reduced further so I’m assuming there’s a little panic for some.
With the UK having a birth rate of 1.5 and the baby boomers in the range 60-80, do you not worry that the UK housing market could go the same way as Italy or Japan over the next 25 years?
Personally no, we don’t have to have the babies to get the population up. We have millions of people from all over the world who want to live in the U.K. I have two maids in my house in Dubai, within 2 days they were asking if I knew how I could get family members into the U.K… no shortage of people, just open up the doors a little if you need to! Japan and uk are very different on the global stage. English is a very spoken language, our culture is already multicultural… I don’t worry personally but it is a good point!
UK overpopulated + war , people come here. so prices will go up up and never stop
Inflation approx 30% over the last 2 years, GDP growth prediction around 1% or less, especially with recent political outlook. We’ve had decades of prosperity and the global trade is fracturing, so higher inflation, higher interest and I’m taking the view of borrowing/ leveraging much less now and in the future. I think house prices will be strong especially with the influx of people and despite gov promise, lack of building.
100% agree! Thanks for taking the time to comment and view - we are very much on the same page!
Mark always really enjoy your videos Probably because they are optimistic but true. I do however worry about labour Although I can't see them getting near house targets especially building on green belt
Too optimistic.. Hopium.
Best off selling up now before the UK becomes a totalitarian state.
I’m an optimist it true, but I’m also data lead… there is only so much you can do to damage an economy even if your doing it on purpose which they won’t! It will be fine, it always is! Capitalism always wins!
How would the U.K. rank against other western countries. In terms of property investing (rentals) which western country would you say is the best country?
I know the U.K. and have relationships and connections so for me it’s hard to find a better place. I would think it’s certainly up there in terms of returns etc though!
Good video as always, I wanted to purchase 2 btl as I believe in acting today vs tomorrow.
Do you think I should wait?
Don’t wait! Do it now
I’m always the best time is now! But that’s just me! Everytime I have waited I’ve regretted :-)
What do you think the regional variances will be?
Great question, when there is high interest rates areas where affordability is stretched will be the weakest. In my opinion it’s a north south divide with the north and midlands outperforming
For those who want to get on the property ladder, they would hope the prices will drop.
Yeah, or they can buy a starter home, or if they can’t afford it in their area buy in a cheaper area and rent it out ofsetting their rent and gaining access to the capital returns. I remember living in Clapham in 2010, I couldn’t afford to buy in that area so had to buy somewhere else and rent it out. There is always a solution!
@@InvestwithMarkParham exactly, just avoid share ownership and leasehold. I can see some many people in UK still hoping the property prices would drop. While they're renting a house or room, why don't just start with a small terrace house.
Central banks and governments are slow to react but they also over compensate. Great times ahead as those interest rates reduce further than they should 🥳🥳
Always slow and always over compensate! This weeks fed and boe meetings should give us more clarity but the general direction now looks down!
OMG. Like most property owners. You are far too optimistic. The market is limited by wage growth. The Banks are crapping themselves and slashing rates before the BoE . This has to be a ruddy big red flag 🚩 for property market.
Disagree Mark.. population demographics are no longer going to keep the demand going, birth rates are falling, population is getting older.
The budget coming in October will decimate the middle class, the top 1% have either left or are planning go leave. Where will this wealth come from to drive prices up?
GDP has been flat for about 15 years so in nominal terms has gone down, take into account GDP per capita and people are much poorer.
I buy and sell property (mainly bungalows) and I'm waiting till January February next year to see how this budget plays out.!
Good plan, I think a dire situation lies ahead and this never ending price boom everyone is dreaming of won't happen. They want to keep pushing prices up so they can tax everyone, particularly with CGT set to soar.
Elderly population, low growth, low birth rates, high immigration, falling standards of living. Yet some people think prices will rise forever.
Hope isn't an investment strategy.
@@jakebespokeuk house building can’t keep up with population increase, whether from births or immigration. So supply and demand should increase prices . My places are where no more can be built and near main infrastructure & employment, so should flourish. Growth has been 5 to 7% a year ( more 2 years ago).
Agreed.
House prices track real wage growth.
I hope I’m wrong but it feels as though a hard recession is coming. And that will allow large banks, pension funds and others to replace private landlords. As these entities will buy distressed properties for cash and be able comply with increasing regulations on landlords.
A weak global economy and massive potential for higher energy prices means I don’t think uk rates will ever get below 3% in the foreseeable future.
You don't know much, do you?
A hard recession is looming if not a depression, but will be an interesting watch if financial institutions adopt their policy's to owning domestic properties although I doubt it.
If rates are ever cut to below 3%, this will be a clear indicaton of how distressed the economy will be not only in the Uk but the USA & Europe too. Rates should have never been so low - for so long... fact!
@@HarleyButler-ox3qnyou don’t explain much do you? Maybe try writing something with more than 10 words and someone might take you seriously 😂
It’s dirty out there no question, when ever there is tough times though good times follow. I have no reason to suspect this time will be different as it rarely is!
@@InvestwithMarkParham No we are not 😂
Great vid
Thank you so much, both for watching and taking the time to comment
Your house prices expectations are more like wishful thinking, but unfortunately hope is not a strategy, and interest rates are not the only factor this time around. Not sure to understand why you wish property prices continue to increase as more people are getting priced out. There is currently a large differential as to what sellers expect to achieve by way of a sale price and what buyers are prepared/ afford to pay. The only way ‘for everybody to be ok’ is when overvaluing of properties will stop, then the number of transactions will go up and that’s what is going to be good for the economy, good for the public finances and ultimately good for the consumer who won’t have to experience tax increases and additional costs.
Spot on, it's a dire situation but these guys are relying on Hopium to keep the market propped up despite terrible fundamentals.
I totally respect this opinion. At the end of the day we all place our bets and reap our rewards or losses. Let’s re visit in a year and see if they have gone up or down !
Savills are guessing mate
If you believe what you are saying here, I'm worried for you. You say prices double every 10 years. Did property prices rise between 1989 and 1995? No. They dropped by nearly 20% nationally and more in some places. Best of luck!
You’re forgetting the 109% increase from 1985-1990… I said 10-15 years and I said on average :-) honestly though, thanks for watching and taking the time to comment
@@InvestwithMarkParham ok yes, but that was due to people buying with two wages where previously it was just one, and there was large wage growth especially in London! There are literally no factors acting similarly now to boost affordability and therefore house prices. Interest rates dropping by a percentage or so won't do it because the house price peak was achieved in 2022 when rates were 1.25%, not 5% AND people had COVID cash stuffed into their pockets! Now that has all gone and we have zero growth in the economy, where in your view is all the money going to come from to inflate house prices past their 2022 peak?
@@picknmix39 honestly…. Probably cheaper borrowing + Wage Growth + Investment + inflation etc. if you just halved the interest rates we currently have my portfolio would have an additional free cash flow of approx 7500pcm so I would be able to buy more…. Demand would increase supply remains stagnate. I guess my point is every time anyone says “this time it’s different” they tend to be expensive words. We don’t always know how or where or why until it happens but it always always happens. Like a roulette table that always goes black, sometimes it bounces in the red but it always always goes black!
You can always bet red if you choose but remember it always always goes black :-)
@@InvestwithMarkParham does it, in your view, always go black (i.e.the value of your property asset increases) when you correct nominal values for inflation?
"What's next for UK house prrices"
Omg I hadn’t noticed that! So obvious now you say it - thanks for watching and commenting buddy :-) will ask my editor to change it
House prices are always going to rise because of currency debasement. The end!
100% Even if it just keeps pace with that thats an average of 3.1% ! Thanks for commenting and watching
what a load of bollocks
You use the word “suffering” and being “squeezed”. Invest elsewhere.