based on every bit of math i have done and the fact dumbledore did not claim the first one was about 800 years or more there is no way they could assuming the math on the Hogwarts bauxbaton win/loss ratio is accurate. the best I can give them is 11 wins, and even that might be generous.
@@Markcrazeer what do you mean, the first one was 700 years ago and supposedly stopped more than 100 years ago, even if you say that they only had it 500 years instead of 600 that is 100 tournaments! The tournament is every 5 years! Only 11 wins each is 22 tournaments and only 110 years, your math is way wrong, go back to study!
Something no one seems to be thinking is that the rules for how far apart the tournaments are held might have changed over time. This means that just because the tournament was being held every 5 years near the end of its run doesn't mean it wasn't held every year or every other year when it was first started.
I mostly agree, but if it ever was every year, it'd have to have changed almost immediately considering how much education the contestants would be missing out on. I'm thinking it'd be more likely to be around every 3rd year or so for most of the time, say 300 years. So let's say it might've been every year the first 5 years, then 300 years of every 3rd year, then every 5th year for another 300 years. Then it'd be 5+300/3+300/5 = 5+100+60 = 165, leaving Durmstrang with 165-(63+62)=40 wins, and totaling to about 600 years. Seems fitting to me.
@@9nikolaThe whole point of hosting potential contestants an entire year is so they are educated alongside the hosting schools kids, forming friendships and making connections. They missed out on nothing. Otherwise they would show up for like a week every few months throughout the year.
I’m not really convinced on this one tbh. Other comments have said this but “some 700 years ago” leaves a pretty big margin for error. And, “over a century” is definitely more specific, but that one is the one that you are approximating (80 years is decidedly not over a century). Also, there is absolutely no way durmstrang had 0 wins in over 700 years. Finally, we know that someone (I forget who, but probably Dumbledore) said that there had been attempts to restart the tournament and we don’t know whether the 5 year gap was consistent and/or whether there had been other extended pauses in the time between games. The quote “he had won every award the school had to offer” also fits with him not competing, because if the school didn’t do the tournament, there was no prize to win.
@@Georgiana216 I was interested if it adds up, as well, so I played it through with a calculator: (Please correct me if I'm wrong)If "some 700 years ago" was between 700 and say 730 years (if it were 740 I think Dumbledore would have said some 750 years ago) we would land somewhere between 1889 and 1919 for the last tournament. [1994-700(or 730)= year it first took place= 1294 (or 1264) if we add the no. of wins from Hogwarts and Beaubatons x5 (to get the years that have passed since the start) we arrive at 625 years after the start. So between 1889 and 1919.] So we'd have about 75 years-105 years since the last tournament or the winning scores are wrong or the tournament has been held for close to 730 years. So if the tournament was indeed held last in between those years poor Durmstrang had won at most 4 times IF the tournament WAS HELD every 5 years...
@@sternentigerkatze I tried using the maths of inequalities to get a more accurate range of values. It is told that the first tournaments were held around 700 years ago. Now anything from approximately 650 years ago to 750 years ago rounds to about 700 years ago. So 650 < x < 750. Next they told us that the last tournament was over 100 years ago. So the tournaments were held for 550 to 650 years or less. So x < 650. Finally, we know that the tournaments were held every 5 years. So there could have been 110 to 130 tournaments or less. So x < 130. Then if we consider that Beauxbatons and Hogwarts won 62 times each (without Harry Potter), then that is 124 games. That leaves only 6 wins at max for Durmstrang. Even if I'm generous to Durmstrang and say that the tournaments began 799 years ago (almost 800), then that leaves 16 wins for them. And even IF Dumbledore was exaggerating, and the tournaments didn't stop a century ago, heck even IF Durmstrang won all the tournaments in the 20th century, they'd still be at only 36 wins. They're definitely lagging behind.
Durmstrang, by that math equation - 700÷5-63-62=15 wins. So must be at least 15 times Durmstrang has won, if not more?? But the number between the other two is definite cause it's recorded.
To me, Dumbledore’s calm demeanor when asking Harry about putting his name in the goblet makes sense. He probably saw a bit of himself in Harry and thought that Harry would be a bit of a daredevil, like his dad was.
Dumbledore actually said that the tournament was established SOME 700 years ago, indicating that he may only have been approximating. Also, 124 tournaments would mean 123 gaps of 5 years, which would mean that it was going for 615 years before it was cancelled, not 620. Furthermore, it's not explicitly stated that Durmstrang have never won. If you really want to point out mathematical inconsistencies in the series, look at the Quidditch World Cup. The first one was in 1473 and it takes place every four years, but the one that Harry attends in 1994 is stated to be the 422nd
Some 700 years means there has Been between 136 and 154 potential tournaments so as not to waste the potential to brag 800 or to be disengenuous about the 700 meaning if the last tournament was in 1894 aproximatley it is somewhere between 116 tournaments and 134. Wich means i would need to estimate the first was closer to 800 years ago then not wich means durmstang either has really never won or they won like 11.
@@donniejefferson9554 Yeah, lol. They're so bad at math they chose prime numbers 17 and 29 as their exchange rates (or idk how to call it) for their currency system. Also, Mr Weasley needed help with muggle money because he couldn't count.
Honestly, the story would be so much better if Dumbledore and Grindewald met during the Triwizard Tournament, not only is it somewhat more romantic but also would explain why Grindewald feared Dumbledore so much - he saw how powerful he was during the challenges!
And they could’ve made it so Grindelwald was expelled because he took a part in the Beauxbatons students death. And then he could’ve manipulated Dumbledore into thinking it was an accident of it was for the greater good and that’s how they become friends because Dumbledore is the only one who believes him
@@hrzg6691 In my head, I imagined they became best friends from day 1 of meeting when they both became champions their 7th year (romantic feelings or not). When Grindelwald took part in the Beauxbatons students death, he convinced Dumbledore he was innocent as no one could find enough evidence he was guilty - you know how much Dumbledore loves "innocent until proven guilty" motto. When Aberforth and Grindelwald got into the fight and G fought dirty, Dumbledore probably realized Grindelwald was not innocent and it was only made worse by the fact that Ariana died in collateral. That was the end of their relationship!
There's one assumption that could throw this theory that could disprove it. You're assuming that the tournament in Harry's year was held in a year that is a multiple of five years of the first one. That may or may not be true considering this was a new beginning for the tournament after it being cancelled.
They're also assuming that "the first Tri-Wizard Tournament happened 700 years ago", means EXACTLY 700 years ago. I think there's a wide enough margin of error implied in that phrase that "it hasn't happened in over a century" fits.
Another flaw is the goblet of fire is impartial so even if dumbledore was the most skilled wizard it's even chance between him and every other hogwarts entry, and I don't think it would be omitted from his autobiography even if it wasn't on his chocolate frog card or mentioned by hermione in gof
@@hamilton2861 No...the Goblet of Fire selects the most worthy candidate. So it's not actually even chance between him and all the other Hogwarts entries. Dumbledore was known to be uncommonly smart, brave and creative as a teenager, and the goblet would've known that and picked him as a result. But your second point is absolutely valid - if he had competed in it and won, it would be one of his great accomplishments, worthy of mention on the frog cards, in the newspaper tribute by Elphias Doge, and possibly even in Skeeter's hit piece (in which she could've questioned whether he bewitched the goblet to make it select him, or perhaps done nasty things to the other champions to make them lose). Thus, this is one of those idiotic SCB theories that has zero basis in fact (read: like basically all of them). It's fun to speculate, but the amount of unwarranted assumptions required to come to this conclusion is staggering.
4:57 it doesn’t actually say how many durmstang actually won on the paragraph you showed. It’s an assumption that they haven’t one at all, but that could easily not be the case as well. Particularly when the numbers didn’t line up in the first place.
@@bmaida2778 It was founded 700 years ago but hasn't been held in about 100 so 600 divided by 5 not 700. Durmstrang could have still won a couple depending on how precise these dates actually are since Harry Potter as a series is pretty bad with math.
This logically does make sense. The biggest issue is Hermione. She knows the history of Hogwarts so well, plus why wouldn't that be on his chocolate frog card? The twins also seemed to know a lot about the history of the tournament, and Hagrid also seemed to know a lot and is known for speaking out of turn (though it was that book that we saw he can keep a secret to some degree). It just doesn't seem likely that no one would have known other than Dumbledore himself and that no one would have said anything. Also, can we talk about the fact that one of the wizards who gave Albus a NEWT exam is still alive AND STILL WORKING, but also isn't the head of the committee? 😅
I agree with this. If we want to try to add an excuse, maybe he was apart of one of the events where someone was seriously harmed and chooses not to talk about it, those close either don’t know or consider incredibly impolite to bring up, and history books omitted specific names for privacy. It’s a stretch but you can squint and make it work. Although it makes sense why he wouldn’t mention it in GoF but would make worse he doesn’t bring it up after Cedric except he ignores Harry in order too so idk
I think with the sheer number and magnitude of things Dumbledore has accomplished in his lifetime, this would be an easy fact to overlook. Not that it wouldn't be recorde somewhere, but stopping Grindelwald, leading the resistance against Voldemort, and being widely seen as the greatest headmaster im Hogwarts history trumps the triwizard tournament. Look at Harry for example. No matter what else he accomplishes at Hogwarts, he's always known to the wider wizarding world as "The Boy Who Lived". Historically, being a triwizard champion is a footnote by comparison.
I'd like to think Dumbledore did so many huge things in the Wizarding World that the Tri Wizard Tournament wasn't as big of a deal is it seams it was. Dumbledore lost most of his ego after Arianna died and id also like to believe Dumbledore would ask for that to be omitted from the frog card for some more interesting or practical wizarding feats like the work on alchemy with Nicholas Flamel.
Not sold on this one guys, I think your reasoning is wrong at several key points. 1) the tournament started "some seven hundred years ago". That probably doesn't mean EXACTLY 700 years ago, we have no reason to believe so. It could be anywhere from 670-730 years ago the way I see it, if not more. 2) Beauxbatons and Hogwarts being tied for the most wins in Triwizard Tournaments DOES NOT mean Durmstrang got ZERO win. Durmstrang just isn't mentionned in the phrase. Also you'd think if they had had NO win at all while the other two had more than a hundred, it would either have been mentionned in the story or on Pottermore, or they would have stopped attending at this point, as you say it's a very humiliating showing (especially for a school that wants to show Pureblood superiority ! Being humiliated by two schools that don't, and probably many Half-Blood and Muggle-blood champions.). In fact I think it would have been mentionned or they would have stopped attending if there was any sort of big humilatig margin by which they were losing. I'd say you could assume they have at least 20, and up to 62 wins against Beauxbatons and Hogwarts' 63. 3) Both of the earlier statement are pretty vague, probably on purpose by Rowling so that she doesn't have to bother with maths and chronology (she ain't good with timelines). However there's one thing that's stated unambiguously, the last tournament was OVER a hundred years ago. Your calculations gives you only 80, which you acknowledge, but you still roll with it, while it's a flat-out contradiction of the text. And if you do the maths on the more reasonable number I offer, rounding up the "some 700 hundred years ago" and rounding down the number of Durmstrang wins to make it all fit, we still get less than a century. So what gives ? Rowling is bad with maths and chronology, big news. That's the doylian answer, the watsonian one is probably something like "the tournaments were held more often than every five years in the beginning". There is little alternative explaination (unless Durmstrang really has 0 wins in 700 years, which I think is highly unlikely and is not what the text is saying or implying anyway). That's also assuming the Tournaments were held consistently in 700 years, despite wars and troubles (including both World Wars).
Durmstrang is for sure way behind as there is not many years left that they could fill in as victors. 125 wins between Hogwarts and Beauxbatons means 620 years of tournaments. Over hundred year gap means at least 721 years in summary. So to keep it releasable why its not "some 750 ago" i would say that upper limit of 730 would be releasable. So at best Durmstrang is left with like 2 wins. For them to have 10 wins we are already passing first turmanet 770y ago and to get to 20 it would be 820y ago. And as You've pointed out we could also assume there could be some additional gaps when tournaments haven't happened which would decrease Durmstrang chances to have any wins. Or just JKR haven't bother with maths when Pottermore entry was created :P
@@davidmccarthy4206 I don't mean I think it was more than 730 years. 730 I would assume is kinda good limit not to say some 750 years ago. So Yes I think upper limit of 730 years is releasable. But that confirms that Durmstrang have barely any wins (if any).
Right? The quote J used just refers to BBTN & Hogwarts because it was about their rivalry. Durmstrang no doubt has a fair few wins as well, it's just they weren't relevant in that particular sentence, so weren't mentioned.
All that would do is mean the tournament ran until even later than 1914, to accommodate the extra wins. The real problem with his theory is that Dumbledore quite likely rounded his "seven hundred" years. As long as it was actually 720 or higher (an appropriate margin for rounding in the context of numbers as large as these), then it's correct to say they haven't been held in "a century".
@@edwardlewis1119 That's a good point, assuming it's exactly 700 years is odd. Although, now I think about it, seems like a very J.K.Rowling thing to do to make the darker, more "traditionally macho" school have no wins.
@@10ryawoo Exactly. I mean, this doesn't affect the theory because, like J said, if the last one was in 1894 it still counts, but I just thought it was odd for him to make such a leap of logic.
00:23 There is a theory that Dumbledore did see socks in the mirror. Socks are the classics Christmas gift nobody likes but Dumbledore cherishes them because you usually get them from family, (who he misses). Dumbledore sees himself getting socks on Christmas. It is similar to the Weasley’s sweaters
The tournament may have been held during the years Albus was a student at Hogwarts, but they couldn't have been in 1894 unless there was a pause in tournaments at an earlier point as well, because it clearly states in GoF that all three headmasters were injured in 1792 by a cockatrice that went on a rampage, which is why the heads of the schools are always part of the judging panel.
This situation isn't the reason all headmaster are on the judging panel it's just the one Hermione found to give evidence that they are all on the panel
@@corycoad5825 Either way, 1792 and 1894 aren't an even 5 years apart (102 instead of 100). So it is actually more likely the tournaments were 1892 and 1897 for Dumbledore to compete. And if the last one was in 1892, then a) it has been over a century since last tournament and b) Dumbledore most likely didn't compete, since he'd have been a first year. and then a lot of the rest of this theory falls down. The 700 years is taken as 3 significant digits. "Some 700 years ago" just doesn't seem that specific, where as the accident in 1792 is.
@@andrewmcdougall9491 I honestly couldn't care about when the tournament's were or how many there were I just like to clear up misconception of known facts
@@andrewmcdougall9491 ironically Dumbledore winning as a first year would make some sense: 1: by the end of his first year he was recognised as the greatest talent that has ever being to Hogwarts by pretty much everyone. Surely it would take some insane feat to accomplish that a feat like winning the tournament as a first year maybe? 2 a first year winning the tournament would be embarrassing for such a prestigious tournament that would be reasonable enough to implement the age line . 3 assuming a student still died that would be enough reason to not mention anything to Harry
Also over a century is still a really ambiguous "number". Like if you're to lazy to say a 110 years ago you'd likely say over a century. Likewise a 101 is also over a century but far less dramatic sounding. Though personally I find a 110 years ago doesn't sound al that dramatic either, it's probably to do with the word century that just feels large. Just like a half dozen also sound like a lot, despite it just being 6 ( anyway I digress ). I would also argue if it where less than a century ( especially this much ), you'd say nearly a century not over a century
Seriously, I don't get what they are talking about 0_o The article specifically mentioned that the Tournament was discounted in 1792 - how on Earth could Dumbledore participated in it?..
Two things about why Dumbledore would not have told Harry about Creedance: 1 - the rules governing that meeting are much more complex than bumping into a friend unexpectedly; 2 - Dumbledore, *in*the*scene*, was vague about his own present nature and may have been limited by Harry's own knowledge; 3 - my apologies, but JKR had not created him yet.
And why didn't Dumbledore tell Harry that he had also been a Tri-Wizard Champion? Because that would have led to the question of what happened - that one of the champions had died in the process. That would probably not have helped Harry to feel safer and more confident.
Seriously, I get that this channel's whole job is to fix the many plot holes JK tears into canon but sometimes you just have to throw in the towel and admit "it's because she didn't plan that"
@@Karak971 Yeah, sometimes it's best to accept when something just don't make sene. I have a really hard time buying most of their theories surrounding Crimes of Grindelwald because of all the lore being dug up (and the assumptions being made in some cases) so that things can make sense, which would be too much for Secrets of Dumbledore to explain without an even bigger infodump than we already got in Crimes of Grindelwald.
Your math budget didn't seem to take some logic into account. For instance, saying "some 700 years ago" almost certainly meant it wasn't exactly 700 years. Also, Durmstrang's wins wouldn't likely be mentioned in the context that is specifically talking about a rivalry between Hogwarts and Beauxbatons. With Durmstrang not counted in the rivalry, it is reasonable to assume their wins are either much higher or much lower, but there's no reason to think it is 0. Overall, though, I agree, the numbers won't match up regardless, so either Dumbledore is lying or the Beauxbatons article is lying.
Seeing as JK Rolling is notoriously bad at math, as she herself admits, and anything regarding numbers in general doesn’t make much sense in the series, this is most likely just another example of the numbers being inconsistent in the series.
@@kiminimuchu__ , I agree that this is just another case of her messing up rather than any of the characters intentionally lying. I'm pretty sure that "bad at math" is simply an excuse, when really she just doesn't keep track of her own lore.
@@SgtSupaman Most likely you're correct about her not keeping track of the lore. This is very obvious with Quidditch throughout the series. Like she said on interviews that Charlie is supposed to be about 3 years older than Percy, but that makes absolutely no sense. With Charlie being born in December, if that was true it means he'd had just left Hogwarts the semester before Harry and Ron join, however in book 1 they keep saying Gryffindor hasn't won since the "legendary Charlie Weasley" left school, and they make it sound like it's been a while, and McGonagall mentions they had been flattened by Slytherin the previous year. But even worse, on the 3rd book Olliver says they haven't won the cup in 7 years, which McGonagall also confirms saying that if they lost that year it would be the 8th year in a row, and they repeat once again that they haven't won since Charlie. So all that puts Charlie about 9 years older than Percy, and 13 years older than Harry and Ron (accounting for Charlie's birthday being past-September).
@@SgtSupaman she keeps track of her lore just fine it’s just ton of lore to keep track of. I’d say she remember a good 80% while the smaller details can be overlooked but even then she found a place to put an end to tiny details.
@@SgtSupaman her math is terrible and remembering dates that she only mentions some times can be hard to remember. So can’t blame her as I have trouble memorizing dates too
Those twenty years can be accounted for by durmstrangs wins. The article didn’t say durmstrang never one. It just said that hogwarts and beauxbatons had an intense rivalry. There would be no reason to mention durmstrang
4:36 this quote doesn't exclude the third school from having wins, it just infers that that they aren't as close. They could still have like 50 wins Edit: the quote doesn't indicate the fact that they didn't win, however, the number of wins that we do know from the other two schools does endup adding up to present day. We didn't know that at that point I the video, but there is no time for the third school to have won u less they changed it to every3 years or something like that, which we have no reason to assume
Not if the tournament was held every 5 years. If Durmstang had, say, 50 wins then that would add an extra 250 years, taking the first tournament to 1044.
“Some 700” is not the same as exactly 700 years and could be off by several years. Also, that Pottermore paragraph was only mentioning Beauxbatons specific rivalry with Hogwarts and in absolutely no way is stating that Durmstrang had zero wins. If the math is already iffy, disregarding the one established fact of the tournament not being held for “over a century” because of already incorrect math makes no sense... seems like the math budget was not fully paid after all.
My theory is that the other schools refused to let any students enter into the tournament on a revival attempt. Dumbles was the only champion picked because there was only one school entered, and because it's a binding magical contract, he had to compete despite being the only competitor. And of course he won because the other schools just up and left. It would count as one of the failed attempts to reinstate the tournament, making Dumbledore a champion and winner, and it wouldn't count as a -real- triwizard tournament because it failed. He could still have performed amazingly in the tasks with no one to competitor against.
Hagrid said in the books that he would thought that he would have never seen another Triwizard Tournament in his lifetime this means one of two things option one Hagrid in his third year was given a time-turner before being expelled and Newt fed up with having secrets held from him gifts Hagrid Aragog so they go back in time to uncover Dumbledore past with Grindlewald and are spectators to the Triwizard tournament when Dumbledore was the Hogwarts champion like this theory suggests and end up at the tournament en route before seeing Dumbledore's shady past or that a tournament was held during wartime to bolster morale between the wizarding schools.
Yes! Hagrid gets a time turner and travels back to the previous Triwizard tournament with his friend Aragog. They want to prevent the death that lead to the cancellation of the event but in doing so they lead to the uprising of Grindelwald. We can call it Rubeus Hagrid and the Cursed Chil- …wait a second!
If Dumbledore was a past champion, telling Harry wouldn't have been comforting for Harry. Harry would immediately start comparing himself to Dumbledore, and extremely powerful and incredibly accomplished wizard. That's a huge amount of pressure to live up to.
It says "some 700 years". I don't think it should be seen as an exact number here. It could also have been moore than 700 years or a bit less. So the exact years can't be telled. But on the whole great theory. Thank's guys.
( told* 😉) ( But overall , great theory , Thanks guys. ) not trying to be condescending, English is not my first language either ! Hope my corrections help you !
Exactly! When they say "700 years" it doesn't mean exactly 700. And when they say "over a century", it doesn't mean exactly a century. And when they say, "every five years", they could well mean, "about every five years, more-or-less". I'm reminded of an old joke about a museum guide. Someone asked him how old those dinosaur bones are, and he replied, "That dinosaur skeleton is a million years and six months old." "But how do you know it's exactly a million years and six months." "Because I asked the head of the museum how old they were, and he said 'a million years', and that was six months ago." In any event, the year J gives as the last tournament before Harry's, is 1914. World War I would have been happening, which could understandably cause a problem with international magical cooperation, as students from different schools may well have been on different sides of the war. And then WW2 happened later, further delaying the reconciliation, and the cold war, etc., so one thing led to another and they didn't have the tournament again until after the Berlin Wall came down. Now why didn't Dumbledore tell Harry that he was in the tournament? Because that would lead to other questions, and he would have had to reveal that a student died in that tournament. Which would undermine the effort to make Harry feel safer and more confident.
I've always assumed the King's cross Dumbledore was just a figment on Harry's imagination - he basically didn't give Harry any information that Harry wouldn't been able to figure out himself, it was just his subconscious externalising his thought process. (The whole "just because it's in your head, it doesn't make it less real" argument.) So dream-Dumbledore wouldn't actually be able to give him info on Creedence.
As much as I love your videos, but "some 700 years ago" does not mean exactly. It could be 720 years, 713, 702 or even just 696 years. When you do the math 124 tournaments with 1 every 5 years (124*5) means there had to be at least 620 years where the tournament was held as planed. Plus the "over a centuary" break means >100+620= >720 for the time passed since the first tournament.
Right. And it would make sense that the tournament would not have been held during a time when international relations were strained - such as the years leading up to World War 1. And with all the stuff that happened in the 20th century (WW2, the Cold War, etc.), not having the tournament became normal. And it only resumed after the Berlin Wall came down.
You need to subtracts 4 from 620, since there's no wait after the last one. The assumption that Durmstrang never won isn't supported though, so there might be more than 124 tournaments.
I'm gonna point out that, technically, linguistically, if you say "some 700 years" and you mean "694 years," you are using the expression wrong. Some (number) (unit) means a range of numbers between the lowest possible and the highest possible, so some 700 literally means between 799 and 700, with a zero chance of 800+ or 699-. That said, the author may have made an error (we all know she does that sometimes), or she may have written it in such that the character made the error, but still.
@@demonzabrak I think that makes sense. Also 700 years is a long time to document stuff. Maybe it's all errors xD In that amount of time a lot can change or documents can be lost so who's really sure Albus knows exactly what he's talking about here. I wouldn't be so sure.
Unless the article SPECIFICALLY says Durmstrang is at 0, I think that's a bold assumption. They can just be trailing, so not really worthy of a rivalry mention.
I agree with your conclusion, but the 62 to 63 doesn’t necessarily mean that Durmstrang never won. It just means that B and Hogwarts are nearly at a tie and in the lead. There is no info on D in the text. The text focuses on B and since the readers focus on Hogwarts (main school of the novel) as a reference point, the omission of D doesn‘t have to signify anything.
its not that we have no info on D, its that we know it started 700/730 years ago (he says some 700 years ago, could mean 720 or 730 years ago) and 100 of years of not, so we have a tiemline of 600-630 years of tournaments every 5 years thats a total amound of 120/126 tournaments and if B and H won 62 each thats 124 wins out of the total of 120/126 tournaments, so the number of wins for D is 0 or maybe 1 or 2
"You don't need to worry about Durmstrang. They've literally never won; did you see Krum at the world cup? Terrible at winning." I almost choked on my sunflower seeds at that one!
I would love a fanfic about Dumbledore's Triwizard Tournment, Grindelwald witnessing it and then making a huge plan to get Albus as his friend and ally
If the record as of 2015 was 62-63, they could have continued the tournament every five years since Harry: 94, 99, 2004, 09, 14, accounting for another 4 tournaments not considered. I'm not big on the history of the Triwizard Tournament, so maybe it is known that they did not continue, but just a potential oversight that I noticed.
They wouldnt have continued on in the slightest To be cancelled for being dangerous and leading people to death for over 100 years, then it comes back, has a double school entry, a death of a student and the return of the dark lord
@@more-reasons6655 But of course, none of that had anything to do with the tournament. Cedric didn't die because of the danger of one of the three challenges. And Voldy didn't return because of anything in the tournament. And all that would have been well-known by 1999.
Maybe he saw something so disturbing in the tournement that he had to repress the memory and that’s why he doesn’t mention to harry. I mean that could explain how he won, why it was cancelled and why it wasent mentioned by anyone, that year of the triwizard tournement was covered up. Maybe something like a rouge beast smashed a champion to death in front of him or it killed many spectators and he never got over it.
It says "there has been a healthy rivalry in international competitions such as the Triwizard Tournament, in which Beauxbatons has sixty-two wins to Hogwarts’ sixty-three.". So phrase "in which" could relate to Triwizard Tournament, but also all the international competitions in general.
I like the theory, but there are a lot of facts ignored from Pottermore and other sources. For example, the tournament of 1792 which was the last one that would have been in the 5 year sync, and therefore 1294 can't be the inaugural tournament. There were also several attempts to restart the tournament, similar to the 1994 event, but it never caught on. Albus could have taken part in one of these attempts, potentially even hosted at Durmstrang where Grindelwald could have found out about him for the first time. "over a century" could mean 101 years, making Albus a second year and Grindelwald a first year - Albus making a name for himself and Grindelwald being impressionable but invisible at the time. But, Hagrid says "I never thought I'd be alive to see the Triwizard Tournament played again" which is to say that since he first came to Hogwarts, the tournament hasn't happened. This means Hagrid sets the latest year of the last tournament to be 1938 as he joined Hogwarts the following year. Dumbledore's statement of over a century could be wrong, so lets roll with that. So, if we take 1792 as the last regular tournament, 1938 as the penultimate attempt to restart it, there's 146 years without a regular 5-year tournament. Therefore, the most attempts we can have in that time is 24 (146/6 rounded down). This makes 100 documented wins unaccounted for before this period, therefore the first tournament must be 1292 or earlier. And then 5 years earlier for each Durmstrang win. Theorietically, Durmstrang could not have more than 8 wins for the tournament to have started in the "late 13th century", as that puts the start date as 1252. If Dumbledore is correct, then this changes the penultimate tournament to 1893 at the latest, a 101 year gap and only 16 possible tournaments without a regular 5 year spacing. This takes the first tournament back to atleast 1252, minus 5 years for each Durmstrang win - any greater than 0, and the fact of starting in the "late 13th century" is incorrect. So, the author screwed up the timeline and we'll never know for sure. However, we can say that it's absolutely possible Dumbledore could have taken part in the tournament, although the specifics of when it happened will depend on whose recollection we discount - Hagrid, Dumbledore, or the magical historian that recorded the first tournament date. I would like to think it's the historian, as it could be that the tournament only got its name in the 13th century, while the scoring persisted from decades of running the tournament irregularly before then. Which also allows Durmstrang to score some points.
Attempting to re-establish it should probably mean it never even started in the first place. Sounds more like 1 or 2 of the 3 headmasters wanted to do it but the other(s) denied it, thus being a failed attempt. The goblet seems to create a magical contract so I'm not even sure how easy it would be to cancel a tournament mid way through. "Once a champion has been selected by the Goblet of Fire, he or she is obliged to see the Tournament through to the end. The placing of your name in the Goblet constitutes a binding, magical contract. There can be no change of heart once you have become champion" So technically a failed attempt would have to fail before everybody starts competing unless the failure is that all the champions died. Unless of course the failure to re-establish the tournament refers to the 5 year cycle and they did manage to do some full tournaments but never consistently... /shrug
@@skyblue2708 Interesting idea. I like to think that the contract can be ended by agreement of all involved. Therefore, the reason Harry is forced to compete is that not all are in agreement to cancel the tournament. Fleur especially is too proud to have been picked to risk not seeing the tournament through. It's suggested running the goblet again for new names, but that's not cancelling the tournament, merely restarting it, which again not all are in agreement, and even if they were the goblet doesn't relight until the next tournament date. Furthermore, I doubt Fleur would have been content to risk not being picked the second time, so there will never be mutual agreement. I think, such as in the case of the 3 headmasters being killed by a cockatrice, it was likely agreed by all involved to cancel the tournament and not continue. Which would also have been made easier due to the reduced number of people to agree to those terms. All three champions losing their head masters, along with the other judges losing their esteemed colleagues are likely to agree an early end. The rules of the contract were never specified though, so we'll never know the specifics. It's generally assumed to be along the same lines as an unbreakable vow, but that's never stated out right. I personally think it should be that dark, considering it's such a highly revered competition.
Hermione mentions the tournament taking place in 1792, when all judges were injured by a cockatrice, that would put the tournament taking place in 1892 and 1897, Dumbledore would have been in his 1st and 6th years
Rowling really needs to release a list of all previous Tri Wizard winners. Though I guess only Dumbledore, Grindelwald, & Doge were old enough to have competed prior to Goblet of Fire. Besides minor characters like Nicholas Flamel - he potentially could have won. Or Bathilda Bagshot & maybe Ollivander.
This might just be my favorite Harry Potter theory to date - I mean, it just makes so much sense! Very glad you guys payed the math budget so we could witness this brilliant discussion :D
Whenever an out-of-book source contradicts the books, I default to the out-of-book source containing the error unless we have strong reason to believe that the book itself is at fault. Dumbledore may have style, but he's not a pathological liar which is what would be needed to decide to lie about 20+ years for no benefit.
After seeing the replies to all the comments arguing about math, I suppose he would've been able to enter, but I don't think he did. It's just something that you think would show up everywhere you hear about Dumbledore, like on his chocolate frog card. And winning all the prizes the school had to offer may not necessarily include the Triwizard cup. I do love the idea that he was the youngest seeker in a century though.
There has to be some margin of error on when the tournament started. I don't think it would be a good assumption to say that the tournament in GOF was on the 700th anniversary of the first tournament.
While there are a few inconsistencies as others already pointed out, the fact that Dumbledore was very ambitious in school and according to Doge (admittedly a friend of hime and therefore pontentially biased) one of if not the most talented Howarts student ever, seems quite convincing to me. In my mind, he indeed would have entered 100% and would've been chosen for sure. And at least during the time Harry is at Hogwarts not all that many others prices or trophies (aside from Quidditch) are mentioned that he could've won, right? So assuming that the Triwizard Cup was one of them simply makes sense. Also, entering and winning the Triwizard tournament as a 3rd year could've been a major part why people actually saw him as the most talented Hogwarts student ever and the wizarding community (not only of Britain but also continental Europe) had their eyes on him from that point onward. Also, assuming the tried to make it somewhat fair, the torunament would probably have not taken place at Hogwarts in 1994 if that last time it was held was also at Hogwarts, so if Dumbledore should've been indeed the last champion before Harry, it would've presumably been at Durmstrang or Beauxbatons and since the argument of Grindelwald witnessing it makes sense to me as well, Durmstrang is the top contender in my mind. Btw, even with the math budget still not as plentiful as it should be, it still amazes me everytime, how many things you can siphon out of these stories and still be reasonably logically and entertaining about it!
It's no guarantee he would be chosen the goblet is impartial meaning him being picked would be even chance, plus I think hermione would have name dropped him when she researched the tournament
@@hamilton2861 I don't have the specific quote from the book on hand but the Harry Potter Wiki basically says the same that I remembered: "The Goblet was an impartial judge, and selected what it considered to be the best student from each school" So yes, it is impartial, as in it favors none of the schools over another and doesn't pick students for other reasons than their skill, such as lineage or the like. Its impartiality is exactly the reason why Dumblemore more or less must've been picked by it. Assuming that Dumbledore didn't get every single trophy and price undeserved but because he was indeed the best student at Hogwarts (and wouldn't we know if there was an even better student at Hogwarts at the same time as Dumbledore, since he would definitely would've wanted to be friends with that person?) then the cup absolutely HAD to pick him because that is literally described to be exactly what it does. Sure, yeah, Hermione would probably have name dropped him although there are other examples where she was absolutely sure Harry and Ron already knew a certain fact although they were oblivious and she might've even assumed Dumbledore told or would tell Harry himself, who knows.
You online therapy pep talks make my day! 🤟keep the theories coming! i know this would be very complicated but do you think you could ever do a video that explains all the wizard families intermarrying? i always found the wizard family trees fascinating!
Wouldn’t this knowledge be pretty well known if dumbledore had participated and won? I am sure hermione would have known if not anyone else and I’m sure it would have been added to the chocolate frog carda. Fun to speculate nevertheless
There's another unmentioned issue that can really mess up the math: The article giving the scores was put out in 2015. There's no evidence that the Tournament ceased in its entirety after 1994. Several scores might exist at intervals between 1994 and 2015. As many as 4 Tournaments may have taken place after Harry's. That with the imprecision of over a century and around 700 years ago, means this equation can't be reliably computed.
Well if it was updated in 2015, wouldn't that mean the last 4 tournaments happened since Harry participated? Which would make Dumbledore almost spot on with the time frame of "a century"
Years ago I gave you guys lip for being sponsored by a bank/lender/"economic service" today I'm here to say that I am happy to see that you've chosen your sponsors better. I love the fact that this channel is wholesome and that you guys promote mental health. Keep it up.
Man, Dumbledore must be the smartest, most powerful character of all times. He certainly wouldnt tell Harry of his victory in the tournament because 1) He is very honorable and would see such tipps as unfair advantages and as breaking the no-help rule and 2) he is pretty modest (at least at Harrys times).
dumbledore was born into 1881 meaning he couldn't have won a tri-wizard tournament. Before the goblet of fire (1994-5) the last Tri-Wizard tournament was canonically held in 1792, clear cut, easy as that.
Just rewatched sorcerers stone and havntheard this point, harry said hes the youngest seeker in over a century according to McGonagall. If she used a time turner to go back to fantastic beasts 2, it would have been over a century for McGonagalls perception of time
It’s a good thing that Dumbledore didn’t share his successes with Harry. Can you imagine comparing yourself to one of the greatest wizards in history? It’ll be fine, Hermione. Dumbledore - the wizard whom everyone wants to run the ministry of magic - won the tri wizardry tournament. There’s no need to worry!
"I always found it super convenient that the year Harry was in also lined up with that year of the 90s". I'm the same age as Harry Potter would be if he were alive - it's really helpful for remembering how old you are without having to think...
I think we need more on how the Goblet makes its choice. Is it merely the most gifted person from each group? How do we know that? And gifted in what way? Harry is more gifted than Hermione? Cedric is more gifted than Harry, as the goblet’s first Hogwarts choice? Fleur is the most gifted person at Beauxbatons?
I agree that the way the goblet chooses is not 100% clear, but Harry was entered under a fourth school name with no competitors so he was compared to no one. We can not say whether Harry or Cedric is more gifted or who would have been selected if Harry had been in with the other Hogwarts entrants. The goblet may also take into account everyone across the board and may select the best people to compete against each other, rather than just the most honourable/talented/clever people. We’ll never know I guess.
Dumbledore is a liar... I hate to self promote but I have a video on this EXACTLY THIS! He lies about SO MUCH throughout the book series... The most egregious one being that it's almost certain that he KNEW that the Potters were going to die. Don't get me wrong, I love Dumbledore, but he's far from a pure of heart hero.
So...you're essentially saying Dumbledore actually meant exactly 700 years when he gave an approximate number of years (that's what "some 700 years ago" means...it's not an exact number he's saying it was about 700 years ago, not exactly 700 years ago) and also he just lied about it the over a century part. I feel like that's a poor basis for a theory, especially when we know a tournament occurred in 1792 (the one where a cockatrice attacked the judges) which means 1894 isn't even a possible year.
That does point to them not being too far off. If the tournament was held exactly every 5 years (nothing happened to delay/cancel a previous tournament), then there could still have been tournaments in 1892 and 1897, meaning Dumbledore could still have competed, I guess depending on how far off you might interpret the "some 700 years" bit. 1897 is still less than a century from 1994, but pretty close. Of course, a more literal interpretation of all of the information would mean the latest possible tournament would be in 1892. I think something else to take into account is the fact that each tournament seems to take place across an entire school year, which means that Harry's tournament took place from fall 1994-summer 1995. So it's hard to guess exactly which year they're referring to with past tournaments.
OH.MY.GOD.THE.INTRO 😂 - I was like, shuffling around in my seat getting ready for the video to start after J's monologue. Shuffle, shuffle, queue theme song, and double take.
I don't think it was trying to say that Durmstrang had zero wins, I think it just didn't mention them because it wasn't about them. It was talking about the rivalry between Hogwarts and Beouxbaton, so it brought up their scores and how close they were. There wasn't really any reason to bring up Durmstrang
I’m not a huge fan of this theory, but I love the enthusiasm and as always, I feel more cheerful after a visit to your channel. This may have been a bit of a miss for me, but I still love you guys! 🙌🏻
That intro scared me. While I'm watching this video at 1:32 in the morning. While standing outside my house getting something from my car. Thought a stranger approached me, obviously calmly.
I can’t remember exactly where, but I’m like 99% sure Percy (I think) very explicitly tells Harry that all three head teachers were triwizard champions in the same year.
None of them are the same age so they couldn’t have. There is nothing in book that implies that Dumbledore, Karkaroff or Maxime, were triwizard champions in their day.
Nobody mentioned Dumbledore's brother, sister, mother, father. and his relation to Grindelwald, until after his death. Because there were tragedies linked to those people.. Maybe that's why nobody ever mentioned his win because of a student's death.
do you think professor Bins even knew the tournament was happening when Harry did it or do you think he showed up to the empty class room and kept teaching to no one ??
The first half of the school year matched with my grade for my entire time at school. It comes in handy as all get out when trying to recall stories from school. 2004? 4th grade. 2012? Senior. It’s the little victories in life, people.
Depending if you take the books or the movies (or I guess both) There is a line in the Goblet of Fire (movie) where as Hagrid, Hermione, Harry, and Ron are walking through the forest. the scene (1:41:00 in the movie) when Harry finds Barty Crouch Sr. dead in the woods. Right before that Hagrid was talking about how proud he was of how far Harry, Hermione, and Ron had come and in that dialog he stated that "Harry was going to be the YOUNGEST Tri-Wizzard Champion there has ever been." Now I know technically Harry is already is a Tri-Wizzard "Champion" but you can tell from the expression of Hagrid saying the line that he is referring to Harry winning the whole tournament. So either Dumbledore was the winner of the Tri-Wizzard tournament at an older age and the math was off or they are not considering the Tri-Wizzard Cup as an award "the school had to offer" It's just hard to believe that nobody at all 3 schools wouldn't have the faintest idea that Dumbledore was the winner of the Tri-Wizzard tournament and furthermore wouldn't have said anything. For example if Dumbledore did win the tournament, you would think when Madame Maxime was stating that Hogwarts had one more win than Beauxbatons she would have mentioned that one of those wins would have come at the hands of the current Hogwarts head master at the time of this tournament. Just seems strange she wouldn't say anything about it. Also I feel if Dumbledore did win Karkaroff would have said something along the lines of Dumbledore was using his status as a past tournament winner to sway the standings for Harry to finish second in the second task instead of Krum. When he was clearly upset about that decision I don't think Karkaroff would hesitate to be vocal about his anger.
This got me thinking a bit....which is why I love your videos as they spur on my own theory thoughts. To which I have 3. 1) I agree that it was most likely a Beauxbatons student who died during the competition he took part in, and was most likely a 1st or 2nd year student. This loss of a young life at the hands of the tournament he witnessed first hand led to him most likely being the party that pushed for the age restriction. 2) The tournament he participated in was not at Hogwarts. We know the visiting schools do not take all of their students. Especially considering this was before the great wizarding wars brought by the rise of Grindelwald and Voldemort, so the killing off of many wizarding families hadn't happened yet making student numbers most likely much higher at the time. Albus being so advanced for his age was obviously brought as part of his delegation as the visiting schools bring those they most believe would have a chance to compete and win. As far as which school hosted I would go with Beauxbatons. Giving a greater number of students at Beauxbatons the ability to enter. The young student who died being one who may have not actually been able to rise to the occasion as the they themselves and the Goblet of Fire predicted. Finally 3) Grindelwald was present and most likely orchestrated their later meeting. It is safe to say Grindelwald too was a young prodigy. I also would imagine much like Krum, Durmstrang selects themselves who among the delegation is allowed to enter in hoping to better their chances (this narrowing of entries perhaps being why they are not real contenders in the tournament). The young second year Grindelwald would not be someone they would have entered, but as Dumbledore himself says, wizards can't help but show off when they get together. They would have wanted to show off their own young prodigy to the tournament and get him familiarized with how it works as he would have been on their short list to compete in his 7th year. Seeing Dumbledore perform he was likely impressed, and sought to learn more about this other strong young wizard. Learning that Dumbledore lived where his own family had a relative. Following him being expelled from school Grindelwald may have decided it was time to meet Dumbledore and influence where he was sent that summer. Also this, and another video I commented on today, has gotten me thinking more on how the Goblet of Fire works in selecting its candidates and it is definitely not random. Possibly making it easier for Barty to bewitch it if he knew how it truly worked.
Do you think they had the Tri-Wizard Tournament during the world wars? Include a few years for rebuilding after a war and that may make it to "...over 100 years."
For one, the article simply didn't mention Durmstrang, rather than saying that Durmstrang never won. For two, there is nothing saying that the tourney was started EXACTLY 700 years ago in 1994. For three, we actually DO know the year for the last tourney before Harry's. It was in 1792 (which neatly removes the "Harry's tourney was correct on the every five years schedule" option). There was no winner in that year, as all three champions died. While there were attempts to resurrect the tourney, none were successful until 1994.
![Is Dumbledore the Heir of Gryffindor? [Harry Potter Theory]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/hsMkMzNgcDs/mqdefault.jpg)
So... it turns out... DUMBLEDOREPUTHISNAMEINTHEGOBLETOFFIRE!
Some space betwen those words
PLS
So true😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Supercarlinbrothers said calmly
Calms
The article simply didn't mention durmstrang as the article isn't about them. There's no way they've never won
It would be hilarious though
based on every bit of math i have done and the fact dumbledore did not claim the first one was about 800 years or more there is no way they could assuming the math on the Hogwarts bauxbaton win/loss ratio is accurate. the best I can give them is 11 wins, and even that might be generous.
I googled it they’ve never won
@@Markcrazeer what do you mean, the first one was 700 years ago and supposedly stopped more than 100 years ago, even if you say that they only had it 500 years instead of 600 that is 100 tournaments! The tournament is every 5 years! Only 11 wins each is 22 tournaments and only 110 years, your math is way wrong, go back to study!
@@Markcrazeer did loose math and came put somewhere around 25 wins, but the math was very loose so I like the number 11.
Something no one seems to be thinking is that the rules for how far apart the tournaments are held might have changed over time. This means that just because the tournament was being held every 5 years near the end of its run doesn't mean it wasn't held every year or every other year when it was first started.
I mostly agree, but if it ever was every year, it'd have to have changed almost immediately considering how much education the contestants would be missing out on.
I'm thinking it'd be more likely to be around every 3rd year or so for most of the time, say 300 years. So let's say it might've been every year the first 5 years, then 300 years of every 3rd year, then every 5th year for another 300 years.
Then it'd be 5+300/3+300/5 = 5+100+60 = 165, leaving Durmstrang with 165-(63+62)=40 wins, and totaling to about 600 years. Seems fitting to me.
@@9nikola what do you mean missing education ? It seems obvious to me that the contestants follow classes in the hosting schools.
@@9nikolaThe whole point of hosting potential contestants an entire year is so they are educated alongside the hosting schools kids, forming friendships and making connections. They missed out on nothing. Otherwise they would show up for like a week every few months throughout the year.
I’m not really convinced on this one tbh. Other comments have said this but “some 700 years ago” leaves a pretty big margin for error. And, “over a century” is definitely more specific, but that one is the one that you are approximating (80 years is decidedly not over a century). Also, there is absolutely no way durmstrang had 0 wins in over 700 years. Finally, we know that someone (I forget who, but probably Dumbledore) said that there had been attempts to restart the tournament and we don’t know whether the 5 year gap was consistent and/or whether there had been other extended pauses in the time between games. The quote “he had won every award the school had to offer” also fits with him not competing, because if the school didn’t do the tournament, there was no prize to win.
Second this
@@Georgiana216 I was interested if it adds up, as well, so I played it through with a calculator: (Please correct me if I'm wrong)If "some 700 years ago" was between 700 and say 730 years (if it were 740 I think Dumbledore would have said some 750 years ago) we would land somewhere between 1889 and 1919 for the last tournament.
[1994-700(or 730)= year it first took place= 1294 (or 1264) if we add the no. of wins from Hogwarts and Beaubatons x5 (to get the years that have passed since the start) we arrive at 625 years after the start. So between 1889 and 1919.]
So we'd have about 75 years-105 years since the last tournament or the winning scores are wrong or the tournament has been held for close to 730 years. So if the tournament was indeed held last in between those years poor Durmstrang had won at most 4 times IF the tournament WAS HELD every 5 years...
@@sternentigerkatze I tried using the maths of inequalities to get a more accurate range of values.
It is told that the first tournaments were held around 700 years ago. Now anything from approximately 650 years ago to 750 years ago rounds to about 700 years ago. So 650 < x < 750.
Next they told us that the last tournament was over 100 years ago. So the tournaments were held for 550 to 650 years or less. So x < 650.
Finally, we know that the tournaments were held every 5 years. So there could have been 110 to 130 tournaments or less.
So x < 130.
Then if we consider that Beauxbatons and Hogwarts won 62 times each (without Harry Potter), then that is 124 games.
That leaves only 6 wins at max for Durmstrang.
Even if I'm generous to Durmstrang and say that the tournaments began 799 years ago (almost 800), then that leaves 16 wins for them. And even IF Dumbledore was exaggerating, and the tournaments didn't stop a century ago, heck even IF Durmstrang won all the tournaments in the 20th century, they'd still be at only 36 wins. They're definitely lagging behind.
Durmstrang, by that math equation - 700÷5-63-62=15 wins.
So must be at least 15 times Durmstrang has won, if not more??
But the number between the other two is definite cause it's recorded.
@@aresrichardson6024 But if there were about a hundred years, were the tournament was not held, those have to be subtracted from the 700.
To me, Dumbledore’s calm demeanor when asking Harry about putting his name in the goblet makes sense. He probably saw a bit of himself in Harry and thought that Harry would be a bit of a daredevil, like his dad was.
Hehe(calm)
@@stillthere1238 yes.
Dumbledore actually said that the tournament was established SOME 700 years ago, indicating that he may only have been approximating. Also, 124 tournaments would mean 123 gaps of 5 years, which would mean that it was going for 615 years before it was cancelled, not 620. Furthermore, it's not explicitly stated that Durmstrang have never won.
If you really want to point out mathematical inconsistencies in the series, look at the Quidditch World Cup. The first one was in 1473 and it takes place every four years, but the one that Harry attends in 1994 is stated to be the 422nd
Looks like they haven't paid enough for the math budget
I was just about to write that SCB needs to bolster the maths budget...
Some 700 years means there has Been between 136 and 154 potential tournaments so as not to waste the potential to brag 800 or to be disengenuous about the 700 meaning if the last tournament was in 1894 aproximatley it is somewhere between 116 tournaments and 134. Wich means i would need to estimate the first was closer to 800 years ago then not wich means durmstang either has really never won or they won like 11.
So your telling me that the Wizarding world, a culture that seems to ignore having basic math classes, is bad at math. I'm shocked
@@donniejefferson9554 Yeah, lol. They're so bad at math they chose prime numbers 17 and 29 as their exchange rates (or idk how to call it) for their currency system.
Also, Mr Weasley needed help with muggle money because he couldn't count.
ALBUS DIDJA PUTCHA NAME IN-DAH GOBLET OF FYAH?!?
YEEESSS
Honestly, the story would be so much better if Dumbledore and Grindewald met during the Triwizard Tournament, not only is it somewhat more romantic but also would explain why Grindewald feared Dumbledore so much - he saw how powerful he was during the challenges!
Maybe he did see Dumbledore, but they just actually met after.
And they could’ve made it so Grindelwald was expelled because he took a part in the Beauxbatons students death. And then he could’ve manipulated Dumbledore into thinking it was an accident of it was for the greater good and that’s how they become friends because Dumbledore is the only one who believes him
That's what I was thinking as well.
Omg that makes soooo much sence
@@hrzg6691 In my head, I imagined they became best friends from day 1 of meeting when they both became champions their 7th year (romantic feelings or not). When Grindelwald took part in the Beauxbatons students death, he convinced Dumbledore he was innocent as no one could find enough evidence he was guilty - you know how much Dumbledore loves "innocent until proven guilty" motto. When Aberforth and Grindelwald got into the fight and G fought dirty, Dumbledore probably realized Grindelwald was not innocent and it was only made worse by the fact that Ariana died in collateral. That was the end of their relationship!
There's one assumption that could throw this theory that could disprove it. You're assuming that the tournament in Harry's year was held in a year that is a multiple of five years of the first one. That may or may not be true considering this was a new beginning for the tournament after it being cancelled.
they are also assuming durmstrang didn’t win any of the tournaments
which it does not say
@@circe2258 agreed. That too is a flaw that I saw someone else pointed out.
They're also assuming that "the first Tri-Wizard Tournament happened 700 years ago", means EXACTLY 700 years ago. I think there's a wide enough margin of error implied in that phrase that "it hasn't happened in over a century" fits.
Another flaw is the goblet of fire is impartial so even if dumbledore was the most skilled wizard it's even chance between him and every other hogwarts entry, and I don't think it would be omitted from his autobiography even if it wasn't on his chocolate frog card or mentioned by hermione in gof
@@hamilton2861 No...the Goblet of Fire selects the most worthy candidate. So it's not actually even chance between him and all the other Hogwarts entries. Dumbledore was known to be uncommonly smart, brave and creative as a teenager, and the goblet would've known that and picked him as a result. But your second point is absolutely valid - if he had competed in it and won, it would be one of his great accomplishments, worthy of mention on the frog cards, in the newspaper tribute by Elphias Doge, and possibly even in Skeeter's hit piece (in which she could've questioned whether he bewitched the goblet to make it select him, or perhaps done nasty things to the other champions to make them lose).
Thus, this is one of those idiotic SCB theories that has zero basis in fact (read: like basically all of them). It's fun to speculate, but the amount of unwarranted assumptions required to come to this conclusion is staggering.
4:57 it doesn’t actually say how many durmstang actually won on the paragraph you showed. It’s an assumption that they haven’t one at all, but that could easily not be the case as well. Particularly when the numbers didn’t line up in the first place.
I'm with you, if it's been around for 700 years. That's 140 tournaments.
So 63, 62 & 15 for Durmstang
@@bmaida2778 It was founded 700 years ago but hasn't been held in about 100 so 600 divided by 5 not 700. Durmstrang could have still won a couple depending on how precise these dates actually are since Harry Potter as a series is pretty bad with math.
@@bmaida2778 Some 700 years ago can be more than 700.
This logically does make sense. The biggest issue is Hermione. She knows the history of Hogwarts so well, plus why wouldn't that be on his chocolate frog card? The twins also seemed to know a lot about the history of the tournament, and Hagrid also seemed to know a lot and is known for speaking out of turn (though it was that book that we saw he can keep a secret to some degree). It just doesn't seem likely that no one would have known other than Dumbledore himself and that no one would have said anything.
Also, can we talk about the fact that one of the wizards who gave Albus a NEWT exam is still alive AND STILL WORKING, but also isn't the head of the committee? 😅
And the last tournament before Harry was 89 years before dumbledore was born
I agree with this. If we want to try to add an excuse, maybe he was apart of one of the events where someone was seriously harmed and chooses not to talk about it, those close either don’t know or consider incredibly impolite to bring up, and history books omitted specific names for privacy. It’s a stretch but you can squint and make it work. Although it makes sense why he wouldn’t mention it in GoF but would make worse he doesn’t bring it up after Cedric except he ignores Harry in order too so idk
I think with the sheer number and magnitude of things Dumbledore has accomplished in his lifetime, this would be an easy fact to overlook. Not that it wouldn't be recorde somewhere, but stopping Grindelwald, leading the resistance against Voldemort, and being widely seen as the greatest headmaster im Hogwarts history trumps the triwizard tournament.
Look at Harry for example. No matter what else he accomplishes at Hogwarts, he's always known to the wider wizarding world as "The Boy Who Lived". Historically, being a triwizard champion is a footnote by comparison.
@@CrackFoxJunior very VERY good point
I'd like to think Dumbledore did so many huge things in the Wizarding World that the Tri Wizard Tournament wasn't as big of a deal is it seams it was. Dumbledore lost most of his ego after Arianna died and id also like to believe Dumbledore would ask for that to be omitted from the frog card for some more interesting or practical wizarding feats like the work on alchemy with Nicholas Flamel.
Not sold on this one guys, I think your reasoning is wrong at several key points.
1) the tournament started "some seven hundred years ago". That probably doesn't mean EXACTLY 700 years ago, we have no reason to believe so. It could be anywhere from 670-730 years ago the way I see it, if not more.
2) Beauxbatons and Hogwarts being tied for the most wins in Triwizard Tournaments DOES NOT mean Durmstrang got ZERO win. Durmstrang just isn't mentionned in the phrase. Also you'd think if they had had NO win at all while the other two had more than a hundred, it would either have been mentionned in the story or on Pottermore, or they would have stopped attending at this point, as you say it's a very humiliating showing (especially for a school that wants to show Pureblood superiority ! Being humiliated by two schools that don't, and probably many Half-Blood and Muggle-blood champions.). In fact I think it would have been mentionned or they would have stopped attending if there was any sort of big humilatig margin by which they were losing. I'd say you could assume they have at least 20, and up to 62 wins against Beauxbatons and Hogwarts' 63.
3) Both of the earlier statement are pretty vague, probably on purpose by Rowling so that she doesn't have to bother with maths and chronology (she ain't good with timelines). However there's one thing that's stated unambiguously, the last tournament was OVER a hundred years ago. Your calculations gives you only 80, which you acknowledge, but you still roll with it, while it's a flat-out contradiction of the text. And if you do the maths on the more reasonable number I offer, rounding up the "some 700 hundred years ago" and rounding down the number of Durmstrang wins to make it all fit, we still get less than a century. So what gives ?
Rowling is bad with maths and chronology, big news. That's the doylian answer, the watsonian one is probably something like "the tournaments were held more often than every five years in the beginning". There is little alternative explaination (unless Durmstrang really has 0 wins in 700 years, which I think is highly unlikely and is not what the text is saying or implying anyway). That's also assuming the Tournaments were held consistently in 700 years, despite wars and troubles (including both World Wars).
I was hoping someone else had pointed out these issues and you explained the points much better than I would have been able to!
Durmstrang is for sure way behind as there is not many years left that they could fill in as victors.
125 wins between Hogwarts and Beauxbatons means 620 years of tournaments.
Over hundred year gap means at least 721 years in summary.
So to keep it releasable why its not "some 750 ago" i would say that upper limit of 730 would be releasable. So at best Durmstrang is left with like 2 wins. For them to have 10 wins we are already passing first turmanet 770y ago and to get to 20 it would be 820y ago.
And as You've pointed out we could also assume there could be some additional gaps when tournaments haven't happened which would decrease Durmstrang chances to have any wins.
Or just JKR haven't bother with maths when Pottermore entry was created :P
@@witia1 Yes, when Pottermore was created and not at any time before or since.
@@witia1 agreed on the 730 years being possibely more. I went with 730 max to be reasonable but I too feel like it could be even more !
@@davidmccarthy4206 I don't mean I think it was more than 730 years. 730 I would assume is kinda good limit not to say some 750 years ago. So Yes I think upper limit of 730 years is releasable. But that confirms that Durmstrang have barely any wins (if any).
Is it stated that Durmstrang didn't win any tournament? Because those missing years might have just been when Durmstrang representative won
Right? The quote J used just refers to BBTN & Hogwarts because it was about their rivalry. Durmstrang no doubt has a fair few wins as well, it's just they weren't relevant in that particular sentence, so weren't mentioned.
All that would do is mean the tournament ran until even later than 1914, to accommodate the extra wins.
The real problem with his theory is that Dumbledore quite likely rounded his "seven hundred" years. As long as it was actually 720 or higher (an appropriate margin for rounding in the context of numbers as large as these), then it's correct to say they haven't been held in "a century".
@@edwardlewis1119 That's a good point, assuming it's exactly 700 years is odd. Although, now I think about it, seems like a very J.K.Rowling thing to do to make the darker, more "traditionally macho" school have no wins.
@@10ryawoo If there was any school that was the macho school, it was Hogwarts.
@@10ryawoo Exactly. I mean, this doesn't affect the theory because, like J said, if the last one was in 1894 it still counts, but I just thought it was odd for him to make such a leap of logic.
00:23 There is a theory that Dumbledore did see socks in the mirror. Socks are the classics Christmas gift nobody likes but Dumbledore cherishes them because you usually get them from family, (who he misses). Dumbledore sees himself getting socks on Christmas. It is similar to the Weasley’s sweaters
The tournament may have been held during the years Albus was a student at Hogwarts, but they couldn't have been in 1894 unless there was a pause in tournaments at an earlier point as well, because it clearly states in GoF that all three headmasters were injured in 1792 by a cockatrice that went on a rampage, which is why the heads of the schools are always part of the judging panel.
This situation isn't the reason all headmaster are on the judging panel it's just the one Hermione found to give evidence that they are all on the panel
@@corycoad5825 Either way, 1792 and 1894 aren't an even 5 years apart (102 instead of 100). So it is actually more likely the tournaments were 1892 and 1897 for Dumbledore to compete. And if the last one was in 1892, then a) it has been over a century since last tournament and b) Dumbledore most likely didn't compete, since he'd have been a first year. and then a lot of the rest of this theory falls down. The 700 years is taken as 3 significant digits. "Some 700 years ago" just doesn't seem that specific, where as the accident in 1792 is.
@@andrewmcdougall9491 I honestly couldn't care about when the tournament's were or how many there were I just like to clear up misconception of known facts
@@andrewmcdougall9491 ironically Dumbledore winning as a first year would make some sense:
1: by the end of his first year he was recognised as the greatest talent that has ever being to Hogwarts by pretty much everyone. Surely it would take some insane feat to accomplish that a feat like winning the tournament as a first year maybe?
2 a first year winning the tournament would be embarrassing for such a prestigious tournament that would be reasonable enough to implement the age line .
3 assuming a student still died that would be enough reason to not mention anything to Harry
@@andrewmcdougall9491 or Rowling could't do the math and hence rounded numbers and hoping folks wouldn't do the math
I'd argue "over a century" is probably more accurate than 700 years
This. If they are going to be imprecise it's with the bigger number where 20 or 30 years matters less.
Also over a century is still a really ambiguous "number". Like if you're to lazy to say a 110 years ago you'd likely say over a century. Likewise a 101 is also over a century but far less dramatic sounding. Though personally I find a 110 years ago doesn't sound al that dramatic either, it's probably to do with the word century that just feels large. Just like a half dozen also sound like a lot, despite it just being 6 ( anyway I digress ). I would also argue if it where less than a century ( especially this much ), you'd say nearly a century not over a century
Don’t you just love how Dumbledore is just old enough to have been a student 100 years before the books are set?
I’m loving the sound bites at the end of the ‘theme tune’. That one was perfect!
That scared me
Agreed, it was hilarious
I ugly laughed at the intro
I'm dead that was hilarious 😆
What happened to the "these socks are amazing!" that you used to have at the end of each segment? I miss it.
Albus Dumbledore was born in 1881. The Triwizard Tournament was discontinued in 1792 and was not reinstated until the attempt in 1994.
“3 points for Hufflepuff.”
Seriously, I don't get what they are talking about 0_o The article specifically mentioned that the Tournament was discounted in 1792 - how on Earth could Dumbledore participated in it?..
They have been Wildly Inventing nonsense for years - of course this is historically Impossible!
Two things about why Dumbledore would not have told Harry about Creedance:
1 - the rules governing that meeting are much more complex than bumping into a friend unexpectedly;
2 - Dumbledore, *in*the*scene*, was vague about his own present nature and may have been limited by Harry's own knowledge;
3 - my apologies, but JKR had not created him yet.
And why didn't Dumbledore tell Harry that he had also been a Tri-Wizard Champion? Because that would have led to the question of what happened - that one of the champions had died in the process. That would probably not have helped Harry to feel safer and more confident.
Seriously, I get that this channel's whole job is to fix the many plot holes JK tears into canon but sometimes you just have to throw in the towel and admit "it's because she didn't plan that"
@@Karak971 Yeah, sometimes it's best to accept when something just don't make sene. I have a really hard time buying most of their theories surrounding Crimes of Grindelwald because of all the lore being dug up (and the assumptions being made in some cases) so that things can make sense, which would be too much for Secrets of Dumbledore to explain without an even bigger infodump than we already got in Crimes of Grindelwald.
@@Karak971 What plot holes do you mean? There are none. The channel is not filling plot holes, they're making theories.
@@mienfu9824 bro
Your math budget didn't seem to take some logic into account. For instance, saying "some 700 years ago" almost certainly meant it wasn't exactly 700 years. Also, Durmstrang's wins wouldn't likely be mentioned in the context that is specifically talking about a rivalry between Hogwarts and Beauxbatons. With Durmstrang not counted in the rivalry, it is reasonable to assume their wins are either much higher or much lower, but there's no reason to think it is 0.
Overall, though, I agree, the numbers won't match up regardless, so either Dumbledore is lying or the Beauxbatons article is lying.
Seeing as JK Rolling is notoriously bad at math, as she herself admits, and anything regarding numbers in general doesn’t make much sense in the series, this is most likely just another example of the numbers being inconsistent in the series.
@@kiminimuchu__ , I agree that this is just another case of her messing up rather than any of the characters intentionally lying. I'm pretty sure that "bad at math" is simply an excuse, when really she just doesn't keep track of her own lore.
@@SgtSupaman Most likely you're correct about her not keeping track of the lore. This is very obvious with Quidditch throughout the series. Like she said on interviews that Charlie is supposed to be about 3 years older than Percy, but that makes absolutely no sense. With Charlie being born in December, if that was true it means he'd had just left Hogwarts the semester before Harry and Ron join, however in book 1 they keep saying Gryffindor hasn't won since the "legendary Charlie Weasley" left school, and they make it sound like it's been a while, and McGonagall mentions they had been flattened by Slytherin the previous year. But even worse, on the 3rd book Olliver says they haven't won the cup in 7 years, which McGonagall also confirms saying that if they lost that year it would be the 8th year in a row, and they repeat once again that they haven't won since Charlie. So all that puts Charlie about 9 years older than Percy, and 13 years older than Harry and Ron (accounting for Charlie's birthday being past-September).
@@SgtSupaman she keeps track of her lore just fine it’s just ton of lore to keep track of. I’d say she remember a good 80% while the smaller details can be overlooked but even then she found a place to put an end to tiny details.
@@SgtSupaman her math is terrible and remembering dates that she only mentions some times can be hard to remember. So can’t blame her as I have trouble memorizing dates too
Those twenty years can be accounted for by durmstrangs wins. The article didn’t say durmstrang never one. It just said that hogwarts and beauxbatons had an intense rivalry. There would be no reason to mention durmstrang
I think we had twenty years too many, not too few, right?
@@Snowshowslow not sure anymore. Tbh don’t even recall watching the video at this point
4:36 this quote doesn't exclude the third school from having wins, it just infers that that they aren't as close. They could still have like 50 wins
Edit: the quote doesn't indicate the fact that they didn't win, however, the number of wins that we do know from the other two schools does endup adding up to present day. We didn't know that at that point I the video, but there is no time for the third school to have won u less they changed it to every3 years or something like that, which we have no reason to assume
Not if the tournament was held every 5 years. If Durmstang had, say, 50 wins then that would add an extra 250 years, taking the first tournament to 1044.
@@Ramtamtama ooohhhhhhh, that makes more sense. I didn't do that math. Crazy
“Some 700” is not the same as exactly 700 years and could be off by several years. Also, that Pottermore paragraph was only mentioning Beauxbatons specific rivalry with Hogwarts and in absolutely no way is stating that Durmstrang had zero wins. If the math is already iffy, disregarding the one established fact of the tournament not being held for “over a century” because of already incorrect math makes no sense... seems like the math budget was not fully paid after all.
Yep, seems like they did their own math.
My theory is that the other schools refused to let any students enter into the tournament on a revival attempt. Dumbles was the only champion picked because there was only one school entered, and because it's a binding magical contract, he had to compete despite being the only competitor. And of course he won because the other schools just up and left.
It would count as one of the failed attempts to reinstate the tournament, making Dumbledore a champion and winner, and it wouldn't count as a -real- triwizard tournament because it failed. He could still have performed amazingly in the tasks with no one to competitor against.
Hagrid said in the books that he would thought that he would have never seen another Triwizard Tournament in his lifetime this means one of two things option one Hagrid in his third year was given a time-turner before being expelled and Newt fed up with having secrets held from him gifts Hagrid Aragog so they go back in time to uncover Dumbledore past with Grindlewald and are spectators to the Triwizard tournament when Dumbledore was the Hogwarts champion like this theory suggests and end up at the tournament en route before seeing Dumbledore's shady past or that a tournament was held during wartime to bolster morale between the wizarding schools.
Oh, my punctuation!
Yes! Hagrid gets a time turner and travels back to the previous Triwizard tournament with his friend Aragog. They want to prevent the death that lead to the cancellation of the event but in doing so they lead to the uprising of Grindelwald. We can call it Rubeus Hagrid and the Cursed Chil- …wait a second!
@@presspause1993 🤣🤣🤣🤣
At times it does seem that JKR did not think these things through....
If Dumbledore was a past champion, telling Harry wouldn't have been comforting for Harry. Harry would immediately start comparing himself to Dumbledore, and extremely powerful and incredibly accomplished wizard. That's a huge amount of pressure to live up to.
It says "some 700 years". I don't think it should be seen as an exact number here. It could also have been moore than 700 years or a bit less. So the exact years can't be telled. But on the whole great theory. Thank's guys.
( told* 😉) ( But overall , great theory , Thanks guys. ) not trying to be condescending, English is not my first language either ! Hope my corrections help you !
Exactly! When they say "700 years" it doesn't mean exactly 700. And when they say "over a century", it doesn't mean exactly a century. And when they say, "every five years", they could well mean, "about every five years, more-or-less".
I'm reminded of an old joke about a museum guide. Someone asked him how old those dinosaur bones are, and he replied, "That dinosaur skeleton is a million years and six months old."
"But how do you know it's exactly a million years and six months."
"Because I asked the head of the museum how old they were, and he said 'a million years', and that was six months ago."
In any event, the year J gives as the last tournament before Harry's, is 1914. World War I would have been happening, which could understandably cause a problem with international magical cooperation, as students from different schools may well have been on different sides of the war. And then WW2 happened later, further delaying the reconciliation, and the cold war, etc., so one thing led to another and they didn't have the tournament again until after the Berlin Wall came down.
Now why didn't Dumbledore tell Harry that he was in the tournament? Because that would lead to other questions, and he would have had to reveal that a student died in that tournament. Which would undermine the effort to make Harry feel safer and more confident.
“Socks in the mirror of Erised” made me think of that time when Tessa Netting said it better have been Grindelwald in just socks that Dumbles saw 😂
😂😂😂
I've always assumed the King's cross Dumbledore was just a figment on Harry's imagination - he basically didn't give Harry any information that Harry wouldn't been able to figure out himself, it was just his subconscious externalising his thought process. (The whole "just because it's in your head, it doesn't make it less real" argument.) So dream-Dumbledore wouldn't actually be able to give him info on Creedence.
I'm really enjoying the alternating Raichu and Paras in the background every time you switch sides of the table 😁
As much as I love your videos, but "some 700 years ago" does not mean exactly. It could be 720 years, 713, 702 or even just 696 years. When you do the math 124 tournaments with 1 every 5 years (124*5) means there had to be at least 620 years where the tournament was held as planed. Plus the "over a centuary" break means >100+620= >720 for the time passed since the first tournament.
Right. And it would make sense that the tournament would not have been held during a time when international relations were strained - such as the years leading up to World War 1. And with all the stuff that happened in the 20th century (WW2, the Cold War, etc.), not having the tournament became normal. And it only resumed after the Berlin Wall came down.
You need to subtracts 4 from 620, since there's no wait after the last one. The assumption that Durmstrang never won isn't supported though, so there might be more than 124 tournaments.
I'm gonna point out that, technically, linguistically, if you say "some 700 years" and you mean "694 years," you are using the expression wrong. Some (number) (unit) means a range of numbers between the lowest possible and the highest possible, so some 700 literally means between 799 and 700, with a zero chance of 800+ or 699-. That said, the author may have made an error (we all know she does that sometimes), or she may have written it in such that the character made the error, but still.
@@demonzabrak I think that makes sense. Also 700 years is a long time to document stuff. Maybe it's all errors xD In that amount of time a lot can change or documents can be lost so who's really sure Albus knows exactly what he's talking about here. I wouldn't be so sure.
Unless the article SPECIFICALLY says Durmstrang is at 0, I think that's a bold assumption. They can just be trailing, so not really worthy of a rivalry mention.
I agree with your conclusion, but the 62 to 63 doesn’t necessarily mean that Durmstrang never won. It just means that B and Hogwarts are nearly at a tie and in the lead. There is no info on D in the text. The text focuses on B and since the readers focus on Hogwarts (main school of the novel) as a reference point, the omission of D doesn‘t have to signify anything.
its not that we have no info on D, its that we know it started 700/730 years ago (he says some 700 years ago, could mean 720 or 730 years ago) and 100 of years of not, so we have a tiemline of 600-630 years of tournaments every 5 years thats a total amound of 120/126 tournaments and if B and H won 62 each thats 124 wins out of the total of 120/126 tournaments, so the number of wins for D is 0 or maybe 1 or 2
"You don't need to worry about Durmstrang. They've literally never won; did you see Krum at the world cup? Terrible at winning." I almost choked on my sunflower seeds at that one!
Erm krums op at quidditch and saying his terrible I’d like you to play better only if it was real but it’s not
@@animeguygaming4803 He made his team lose lol, he decided when the match ended.
I would love a fanfic about Dumbledore's Triwizard Tournment, Grindelwald witnessing it and then making a huge plan to get Albus as his friend and ally
If the record as of 2015 was 62-63, they could have continued the tournament every five years since Harry: 94, 99, 2004, 09, 14, accounting for another 4 tournaments not considered.
I'm not big on the history of the Triwizard Tournament, so maybe it is known that they did not continue, but just a potential oversight that I noticed.
They wouldnt have continued on in the slightest
To be cancelled for being dangerous and leading people to death for over 100 years, then it comes back, has a double school entry, a death of a student and the return of the dark lord
@@more-reasons6655 But of course, none of that had anything to do with the tournament. Cedric didn't die because of the danger of one of the three challenges. And Voldy didn't return because of anything in the tournament. And all that would have been well-known by 1999.
@@PhilBagels I'm not sure people would care, it still puts a bad reputation on the tournament.
Maybe he saw something so disturbing in the tournement that he had to repress the memory and that’s why he doesn’t mention to harry. I mean that could explain how he won, why it was cancelled and why it wasent mentioned by anyone, that year of the triwizard tournement was covered up. Maybe something like a rouge beast smashed a champion to death in front of him or it killed many spectators and he never got over it.
I just bought the Goblet of Fire CD audiobook at Goodwill for $2. Then I remembered my new car doesn't have a cd player 🤦♂️
Does it have an aux port?
@@cacho2112 yeah all kinds of plug ins. Just not excited to rip 17 cds LOL
@@shawntaylor7442 well you could a portable CD player and plug the aux into it. It's what I do
I was not ready for DIDYOUPUTYOURNAMEINTHEGOBLETOFFIRE? in the intro... XD
Would enjoy to hear your thoughts on who would have won the tri wizard tournament if Barty Crouch Jr hadn’t interfered
Nice question!
It says "there has been a healthy rivalry in international competitions such as the Triwizard Tournament, in which Beauxbatons has sixty-two wins to Hogwarts’ sixty-three.". So phrase "in which" could relate to Triwizard Tournament, but also all the international competitions in general.
I like the theory, but there are a lot of facts ignored from Pottermore and other sources. For example, the tournament of 1792 which was the last one that would have been in the 5 year sync, and therefore 1294 can't be the inaugural tournament.
There were also several attempts to restart the tournament, similar to the 1994 event, but it never caught on. Albus could have taken part in one of these attempts, potentially even hosted at Durmstrang where Grindelwald could have found out about him for the first time.
"over a century" could mean 101 years, making Albus a second year and Grindelwald a first year - Albus making a name for himself and Grindelwald being impressionable but invisible at the time.
But, Hagrid says "I never thought I'd be alive to see the Triwizard Tournament played again" which is to say that since he first came to Hogwarts, the tournament hasn't happened.
This means Hagrid sets the latest year of the last tournament to be 1938 as he joined Hogwarts the following year. Dumbledore's statement of over a century could be wrong, so lets roll with that.
So, if we take 1792 as the last regular tournament, 1938 as the penultimate attempt to restart it, there's 146 years without a regular 5-year tournament. Therefore, the most attempts we can have in that time is 24 (146/6 rounded down). This makes 100 documented wins unaccounted for before this period, therefore the first tournament must be 1292 or earlier. And then 5 years earlier for each Durmstrang win. Theorietically, Durmstrang could not have more than 8 wins for the tournament to have started in the "late 13th century", as that puts the start date as 1252.
If Dumbledore is correct, then this changes the penultimate tournament to 1893 at the latest, a 101 year gap and only 16 possible tournaments without a regular 5 year spacing. This takes the first tournament back to atleast 1252, minus 5 years for each Durmstrang win - any greater than 0, and the fact of starting in the "late 13th century" is incorrect.
So, the author screwed up the timeline and we'll never know for sure. However, we can say that it's absolutely possible Dumbledore could have taken part in the tournament, although the specifics of when it happened will depend on whose recollection we discount - Hagrid, Dumbledore, or the magical historian that recorded the first tournament date. I would like to think it's the historian, as it could be that the tournament only got its name in the 13th century, while the scoring persisted from decades of running the tournament irregularly before then. Which also allows Durmstrang to score some points.
Attempting to re-establish it should probably mean it never even started in the first place. Sounds more like 1 or 2 of the 3 headmasters wanted to do it but the other(s) denied it, thus being a failed attempt. The goblet seems to create a magical contract so I'm not even sure how easy it would be to cancel a tournament mid way through.
"Once a champion has been selected by the Goblet of Fire, he or she is obliged to see the Tournament through to the end. The placing of your name in the Goblet constitutes a binding, magical contract. There can be no change of heart once you have become champion"
So technically a failed attempt would have to fail before everybody starts competing unless the failure is that all the champions died.
Unless of course the failure to re-establish the tournament refers to the 5 year cycle and they did manage to do some full tournaments but never consistently... /shrug
@@skyblue2708 Interesting idea. I like to think that the contract can be ended by agreement of all involved. Therefore, the reason Harry is forced to compete is that not all are in agreement to cancel the tournament. Fleur especially is too proud to have been picked to risk not seeing the tournament through. It's suggested running the goblet again for new names, but that's not cancelling the tournament, merely restarting it, which again not all are in agreement, and even if they were the goblet doesn't relight until the next tournament date. Furthermore, I doubt Fleur would have been content to risk not being picked the second time, so there will never be mutual agreement.
I think, such as in the case of the 3 headmasters being killed by a cockatrice, it was likely agreed by all involved to cancel the tournament and not continue. Which would also have been made easier due to the reduced number of people to agree to those terms. All three champions losing their head masters, along with the other judges losing their esteemed colleagues are likely to agree an early end.
The rules of the contract were never specified though, so we'll never know the specifics. It's generally assumed to be along the same lines as an unbreakable vow, but that's never stated out right. I personally think it should be that dark, considering it's such a highly revered competition.
Hermione mentions the tournament taking place in 1792, when all judges were injured by a cockatrice, that would put the tournament taking place in 1892 and 1897, Dumbledore would have been in his 1st and 6th years
Rowling really needs to release a list of all previous Tri Wizard winners. Though I guess only Dumbledore, Grindelwald, & Doge were old enough to have competed prior to Goblet of Fire. Besides minor characters like Nicholas Flamel - he potentially could have won. Or Bathilda Bagshot & maybe Ollivander.
This might just be my favorite Harry Potter theory to date - I mean, it just makes so much sense! Very glad you guys payed the math budget so we could witness this brilliant discussion :D
Whenever an out-of-book source contradicts the books, I default to the out-of-book source containing the error unless we have strong reason to believe that the book itself is at fault. Dumbledore may have style, but he's not a pathological liar which is what would be needed to decide to lie about 20+ years for no benefit.
After seeing the replies to all the comments arguing about math, I suppose he would've been able to enter, but I don't think he did. It's just something that you think would show up everywhere you hear about Dumbledore, like on his chocolate frog card. And winning all the prizes the school had to offer may not necessarily include the Triwizard cup.
I do love the idea that he was the youngest seeker in a century though.
Credence is Aberforth's son.
😯🤔 I need that theory made into a video asap
Goat Son?!
There has to be some margin of error on when the tournament started. I don't think it would be a good assumption to say that the tournament in GOF was on the 700th anniversary of the first tournament.
While there are a few inconsistencies as others already pointed out, the fact that Dumbledore was very ambitious in school and according to Doge (admittedly a friend of hime and therefore pontentially biased) one of if not the most talented Howarts student ever, seems quite convincing to me. In my mind, he indeed would have entered 100% and would've been chosen for sure. And at least during the time Harry is at Hogwarts not all that many others prices or trophies (aside from Quidditch) are mentioned that he could've won, right? So assuming that the Triwizard Cup was one of them simply makes sense. Also, entering and winning the Triwizard tournament as a 3rd year could've been a major part why people actually saw him as the most talented Hogwarts student ever and the wizarding community (not only of Britain but also continental Europe) had their eyes on him from that point onward.
Also, assuming the tried to make it somewhat fair, the torunament would probably have not taken place at Hogwarts in 1994 if that last time it was held was also at Hogwarts, so if Dumbledore should've been indeed the last champion before Harry, it would've presumably been at Durmstrang or Beauxbatons and since the argument of Grindelwald witnessing it makes sense to me as well, Durmstrang is the top contender in my mind.
Btw, even with the math budget still not as plentiful as it should be, it still amazes me everytime, how many things you can siphon out of these stories and still be reasonably logically and entertaining about it!
It's no guarantee he would be chosen the goblet is impartial meaning him being picked would be even chance, plus I think hermione would have name dropped him when she researched the tournament
@@hamilton2861 I don't have the specific quote from the book on hand but the Harry Potter Wiki basically says the same that I remembered: "The Goblet was an impartial judge, and selected what it considered to be the best student from each school" So yes, it is impartial, as in it favors none of the schools over another and doesn't pick students for other reasons than their skill, such as lineage or the like. Its impartiality is exactly the reason why Dumblemore more or less must've been picked by it. Assuming that Dumbledore didn't get every single trophy and price undeserved but because he was indeed the best student at Hogwarts (and wouldn't we know if there was an even better student at Hogwarts at the same time as Dumbledore, since he would definitely would've wanted to be friends with that person?) then the cup absolutely HAD to pick him because that is literally described to be exactly what it does.
Sure, yeah, Hermione would probably have name dropped him although there are other examples where she was absolutely sure Harry and Ron already knew a certain fact although they were oblivious and she might've even assumed Dumbledore told or would tell Harry himself, who knows.
You online therapy pep talks make my day! 🤟keep the theories coming! i know this would be very complicated but do you think you could ever do a video that explains all the wizard families intermarrying? i always found the wizard family trees fascinating!
Wouldn’t this knowledge be pretty well known if dumbledore had participated and won? I am sure hermione would have known if not anyone else and I’m sure it would have been added to the chocolate frog carda. Fun to speculate nevertheless
There's another unmentioned issue that can really mess up the math: The article giving the scores was put out in 2015. There's no evidence that the Tournament ceased in its entirety after 1994. Several scores might exist at intervals between 1994 and 2015. As many as 4 Tournaments may have taken place after Harry's. That with the imprecision of over a century and around 700 years ago, means this equation can't be reliably computed.
Was there, I can confirm it!! Great times 🤣
Well if it was updated in 2015, wouldn't that mean the last 4 tournaments happened since Harry participated? Which would make Dumbledore almost spot on with the time frame of "a century"
Love these guys! Can’t wait for their encAnto review!
Well… dumbledoor said that it hasn’t taken place AT hog warts since 1914. So it probably was at durmstrang and beaubatons.
It's entirely possible. Snape knew more than most 7th years when it came to curses amd possibly other juicy pieces of magic.
Years ago I gave you guys lip for being sponsored by a bank/lender/"economic service" today I'm here to say that I am happy to see that you've chosen your sponsors better. I love the fact that this channel is wholesome and that you guys promote mental health. Keep it up.
Man, Dumbledore must be the smartest, most powerful character of all times. He certainly wouldnt tell Harry of his victory in the tournament because 1) He is very honorable and would see such tipps as unfair advantages and as breaking the no-help rule and 2) he is pretty modest (at least at Harrys times).
dumbledore was born into 1881 meaning he couldn't have won a tri-wizard tournament. Before the goblet of fire (1994-5) the last Tri-Wizard tournament was canonically held in 1792, clear cut, easy as that.
I agree with this theory before I even listen to it
Aw thanks!
I disagree with it before hearing it, just to balance things out
I take no sides to make the balance perfect.
Just rewatched sorcerers stone and havntheard this point, harry said hes the youngest seeker in over a century according to McGonagall. If she used a time turner to go back to fantastic beasts 2, it would have been over a century for McGonagalls perception of time
It’s a good thing that Dumbledore didn’t share his successes with Harry. Can you imagine comparing yourself to one of the greatest wizards in history? It’ll be fine, Hermione. Dumbledore - the wizard whom everyone wants to run the ministry of magic - won the tri wizardry tournament. There’s no need to worry!
Video 7 of asking for name of the wind theories again. You started me on this series and now I'm hooked
Anything related to Albus Dumbledore, I'm in for it!!!
10:08 you made a soud like a minecraft Steve taking damage
You should checkout the Hogwarts Tournament Global Challenge on Wizarding World and do the weekly quizzes 😄
Is that a website?
"I always found it super convenient that the year Harry was in also lined up with that year of the 90s". I'm the same age as Harry Potter would be if he were alive - it's really helpful for remembering how old you are without having to think...
Idk... to me the phrase some 700 years ago means it's not exactly 700 years, but some more or less.
I think we need more on how the Goblet makes its choice. Is it merely the most gifted person from each group? How do we know that? And gifted in what way? Harry is more gifted than Hermione? Cedric is more gifted than Harry, as the goblet’s first Hogwarts choice? Fleur is the most gifted person at Beauxbatons?
I agree that the way the goblet chooses is not 100% clear, but Harry was entered under a fourth school name with no competitors so he was compared to no one. We can not say whether Harry or Cedric is more gifted or who would have been selected if Harry had been in with the other Hogwarts entrants. The goblet may also take into account everyone across the board and may select the best people to compete against each other, rather than just the most honourable/talented/clever people. We’ll never know I guess.
Dumbledore is a liar... I hate to self promote but I have a video on this EXACTLY THIS! He lies about SO MUCH throughout the book series... The most egregious one being that it's almost certain that he KNEW that the Potters were going to die. Don't get me wrong, I love Dumbledore, but he's far from a pure of heart hero.
Love every one of your theory videos!
So...you're essentially saying Dumbledore actually meant exactly 700 years when he gave an approximate number of years (that's what "some 700 years ago" means...it's not an exact number he's saying it was about 700 years ago, not exactly 700 years ago) and also he just lied about it the over a century part. I feel like that's a poor basis for a theory, especially when we know a tournament occurred in 1792 (the one where a cockatrice attacked the judges) which means 1894 isn't even a possible year.
That does point to them not being too far off. If the tournament was held exactly every 5 years (nothing happened to delay/cancel a previous tournament), then there could still have been tournaments in 1892 and 1897, meaning Dumbledore could still have competed, I guess depending on how far off you might interpret the "some 700 years" bit. 1897 is still less than a century from 1994, but pretty close.
Of course, a more literal interpretation of all of the information would mean the latest possible tournament would be in 1892. I think something else to take into account is the fact that each tournament seems to take place across an entire school year, which means that Harry's tournament took place from fall 1994-summer 1995. So it's hard to guess exactly which year they're referring to with past tournaments.
OH.MY.GOD.THE.INTRO 😂 - I was like, shuffling around in my seat getting ready for the video to start after J's monologue. Shuffle, shuffle, queue theme song, and double take.
I don't think it was trying to say that Durmstrang had zero wins, I think it just didn't mention them because it wasn't about them. It was talking about the rivalry between Hogwarts and Beouxbaton, so it brought up their scores and how close they were. There wasn't really any reason to bring up Durmstrang
Lololol at the intro. "Harry did you put your name in the goblet of fire" super fast forward
Can someone explain the math budget to me pls😂
Pay money.... get math...
Insufficient funds were allocated to the math budget to calculate the magnitude of the math budget.
Cant’t you do math for free?😂😂😂
@@charlottenew26 nope
Shouldn't his victory be mentioned on its Chocolate Frog card ? Seems more interesting than chamber music and tenpin bowling.
I’m not a huge fan of this theory, but I love the enthusiasm and as always, I feel more cheerful after a visit to your channel. This may have been a bit of a miss for me, but I still love you guys! 🙌🏻
My reasoning for socks was always about Christmas gifts. A good gift is something you'd enjoy but not buy for yourself. Thus, fuzzy socks over books.
I don’t know why, but I always thought that the 3 headmasters competed together in the tournament
(Probably already said)
Plot Twist: J.K. Rowling expelled Grindewald from durmstrang on purpose so they wouldn't win.
I would love to see a ultimate tierlist of all harry potter characters from you!
I'd love a video about dark magic and kind of explaining how it works and why it isn't used much. Pls pls pls. This is so interesting.
10:58 that whole little sketch had me laughing way more than it probably should have and I have no regrets
Why assume that Durmstrang has 0 wins because they’re not mentioned in an article about BEAUXBATONS-HOGWARTS rivalry?
4:50 I don't think that quote from Pottermore has to mean that Durmstrang has never won. It's just a comparison between Hogwarts and Beauxbatons.
That intro scared me. While I'm watching this video at 1:32 in the morning. While standing outside my house getting something from my car. Thought a stranger approached me, obviously calmly.
I can’t remember exactly where, but I’m like 99% sure Percy (I think) very explicitly tells Harry that all three head teachers were triwizard champions in the same year.
None of them are the same age so they couldn’t have. There is nothing in book that implies that Dumbledore, Karkaroff or Maxime, were triwizard champions in their day.
Nobody mentioned Dumbledore's brother, sister, mother, father. and his relation to Grindelwald, until after his death. Because there were tragedies linked to those people.. Maybe that's why nobody ever mentioned his win because of a student's death.
do you think professor Bins even knew the tournament was happening when Harry did it or do you think he showed up to the empty class room and kept teaching to no one ??
The first half of the school year matched with my grade for my entire time at school. It comes in handy as all get out when trying to recall stories from school. 2004? 4th grade. 2012? Senior.
It’s the little victories in life, people.
Depending if you take the books or the movies (or I guess both) There is a line in the Goblet of Fire (movie) where as Hagrid, Hermione, Harry, and Ron are walking through the forest. the scene (1:41:00 in the movie) when Harry finds Barty Crouch Sr. dead in the woods. Right before that Hagrid was talking about how proud he was of how far Harry, Hermione, and Ron had come and in that dialog he stated that "Harry was going to be the YOUNGEST Tri-Wizzard Champion there has ever been." Now I know technically Harry is already is a Tri-Wizzard "Champion" but you can tell from the expression of Hagrid saying the line that he is referring to Harry winning the whole tournament. So either Dumbledore was the winner of the Tri-Wizzard tournament at an older age and the math was off or they are not considering the Tri-Wizzard Cup as an award "the school had to offer" It's just hard to believe that nobody at all 3 schools wouldn't have the faintest idea that Dumbledore was the winner of the Tri-Wizzard tournament and furthermore wouldn't have said anything.
For example if Dumbledore did win the tournament, you would think when Madame Maxime was stating that Hogwarts had one more win than Beauxbatons she would have mentioned that one of those wins would have come at the hands of the current Hogwarts head master at the time of this tournament. Just seems strange she wouldn't say anything about it. Also I feel if Dumbledore did win Karkaroff would have said something along the lines of Dumbledore was using his status as a past tournament winner to sway the standings for Harry to finish second in the second task instead of Krum. When he was clearly upset about that decision I don't think Karkaroff would hesitate to be vocal about his anger.
“All the numbers add up” except for that one number that implies at least a 20 year difference from the jump through logic
This got me thinking a bit....which is why I love your videos as they spur on my own theory thoughts. To which I have 3. 1) I agree that it was most likely a Beauxbatons student who died during the competition he took part in, and was most likely a 1st or 2nd year student. This loss of a young life at the hands of the tournament he witnessed first hand led to him most likely being the party that pushed for the age restriction. 2) The tournament he participated in was not at Hogwarts. We know the visiting schools do not take all of their students. Especially considering this was before the great wizarding wars brought by the rise of Grindelwald and Voldemort, so the killing off of many wizarding families hadn't happened yet making student numbers most likely much higher at the time. Albus being so advanced for his age was obviously brought as part of his delegation as the visiting schools bring those they most believe would have a chance to compete and win. As far as which school hosted I would go with Beauxbatons. Giving a greater number of students at Beauxbatons the ability to enter. The young student who died being one who may have not actually been able to rise to the occasion as the they themselves and the Goblet of Fire predicted. Finally 3) Grindelwald was present and most likely orchestrated their later meeting. It is safe to say Grindelwald too was a young prodigy. I also would imagine much like Krum, Durmstrang selects themselves who among the delegation is allowed to enter in hoping to better their chances (this narrowing of entries perhaps being why they are not real contenders in the tournament). The young second year Grindelwald would not be someone they would have entered, but as Dumbledore himself says, wizards can't help but show off when they get together. They would have wanted to show off their own young prodigy to the tournament and get him familiarized with how it works as he would have been on their short list to compete in his 7th year. Seeing Dumbledore perform he was likely impressed, and sought to learn more about this other strong young wizard. Learning that Dumbledore lived where his own family had a relative. Following him being expelled from school Grindelwald may have decided it was time to meet Dumbledore and influence where he was sent that summer.
Also this, and another video I commented on today, has gotten me thinking more on how the Goblet of Fire works in selecting its candidates and it is definitely not random. Possibly making it easier for Barty to bewitch it if he knew how it truly worked.
Do you think they had the Tri-Wizard Tournament during the world wars? Include a few years for rebuilding after a war and that may make it to "...over 100 years."
For one, the article simply didn't mention Durmstrang, rather than saying that Durmstrang never won.
For two, there is nothing saying that the tourney was started EXACTLY 700 years ago in 1994.
For three, we actually DO know the year for the last tourney before Harry's. It was in 1792 (which neatly removes the "Harry's tourney was correct on the every five years schedule" option). There was no winner in that year, as all three champions died. While there were attempts to resurrect the tourney, none were successful until 1994.
You were THISCLOSE to owing me a new keyboard because "DIDJAPUCHERNAMEINDAGOBLETOFFOYR" in the intro almost made me spit out my tea.