i have been using Linux and have Manjaro, and others. I've been using windows too. this is what i have found. 1 the attitude of Linux users is hideously arrogant. not a joke. the RTFM attitude is real. 2. where actually is a central point of information for any brand of linux that you can use if your laptop goes down. it is not going to appeal to people if you have to spend 6 days looking for drivers for you speakers, and go into the depths of the internet to find them. most people don't have that level of interest. 3 command lines. it maybe quick, but that was why windows was invented, and became popular, people hate command lines, it's that simple. DOS was command line driven. 4. the software feels awkward. it either needs specialised knowledge to use, or fix, or just set-up right. IE: boardcom Wi-Fi setup. 5. it isn't supported a great deal of the time, especially in the main programme. like Netflix. the programme people actually use, and that people would be attracted into using if it was supported. it is still a geeks toy basically. 6 people are expecting others to convert, without giving them something they can use, when they do have to convert
@@RooterDelWifiXs Then they wouldn't be buying the PCs with Linux preinstalled. And there's always QEMU for the few essential programs. But if Linux gains enough of a market share, these essentials would end up being cross-platform anyway. These answers should have been obvious.
We wouldn't want it to be the Year of the Linux Desktop. If it was, we'd have to stop saying that each year is the Year of the Linux Desktop. That's like telling Arch users they can't use the letters B T and W.
I was a die hard windows fan but this recall stuffs, copilot and always tweaking my pc for privacy reasons made me switch to linux a month ago. I switched to debian with KDE plasma and the way am enjoying linux and learning it am never going back to windows 🤝
I've been working with IT teams for over 15 years. If the vast majority of people using Windows don't know Linux, it's no surprise that a generation of IT managers who learned on Windows might not be familiar with Linux either. When I talk to them, they often admit they don't use it. I try to promote Linux in my work, but when the IT team itself doesn't use it, how can we expect regular users who only need a browser and Excel to make the switch?
@@hermespymander9167 Yes I am sure, but normally when you work in an IT team, you must at least be curious about all systems. When I started in IT, I learned about Linux. However, IT guys now buy Macs instead of installing Linux.
What is surprising to me is IT guys that don't know how to use Linux, since most everything runs on Linux now a days. And I'm not talking about desktop.
@@HOBBS-4 I work in a group of 32 factories worldwide for a US-based company. Our IT infrastructure includes Windows Server, Azure Cloud, and the Office 365 suite. All desktops and laptops are running Windows 11. For European operations, we have a dedicated division in Spain to handle IT support tickets. However, we often need to wait for US-based teams to resolve issues.
I switch to Linux because I literally hated Windows. People say they hate Windows, but do they really? or just saying so. My was a real statement and I install Linux and never looked back. The ones that say they hate Windows, well most might not know there are alternatives or just don't know how to install an alternative.
@@c0wg0d I say you can do everything on Linux. As long your not using corporate Windows software in a professionally fashion. I switch and found ways to use nothing but Linux. But I'm not doing anything professionally in the commercial fashion. Your statement is true if you are. If you're a true Windows gamer, this statement is also true. I'm a gamer, but I play with only Linux games. So I don't have to look at Windows.
Same.. I'm already dual booting on my old hardware. MS is leaving us no choice for our older stuff.. People are going to switch in mass, out of necessity- on their older PC's. I'm sure everyone will still have a new windows 11 rig too.. but the older stuff is going to Linux.. It's already happening and we aren't even there yet.
What's going to push the Linux desktop is Valve pushing steamOS. That and microsoft slowly making Windows more annoying to use than Linux. Once more OEMs are installing Linux on devices for pseudo game consoles, marketshare will slowly grow, people will want more software and support for it, the companies doing that will have Linux be a part of their workflow in some meaningful way. For me though, Windows 11 is just such an unpleasant experience every time I'm forced to use it that I'm jumping ship out of spite. At least when I'm horribly annoyed at Linux I can give it the credit of not being paid software. Windows is, and has no excuse for being so bad.
It's different this time.. At the end of windows 7, they literally gave us windows 10 for FREE. Now they are forcing you to buy new hardware or switch to a different OS. We are already at 4% desktop.. and up to 6% if you count steamOS. I think Linux will pass 10% market share by 2026. The rest of the world is switching over much faster than we are. With Windows 11 being an objectively worse OS, new outlook having such a botched rollout, MS forcing people onto new hardware and so many Linux distros reaching a Mastery level polish lately-- the switchovers will be noticeable. It's brewing a perfect storm. There will be a measurable wave that happens; there's even a chance for it to go viral if it's reported in the news enough.. or if it becomes a ti k to k trend or something.
It is different this time, people around the World are hurting for money. I'm helping a small Business switch to Linux Fedora Silverblue. This used to be unheard of, its now a reality.
@@HOBBS-4 For sure.. I agree. Even if most people I know still have a newer windows 11 rig.. They are still converting all their older machines to linux right now. Simple PC's that people use just to get on FB and youtube, and some email, etc.. They are getting converted all around me. My friend just set his g-mothers pc up with Linux Mint a few weeks ago, and she barely even noticed. All she really uses is the browser anyway, and it's pinned to the task bar. So it has been seamless for her.
@@calholli 10% is a bit of a stretch for 2026 imo. personally I'd be looking more at the true end-date of windows 10 which is 2032 - illegally upgrading to windows 10 ltsc iot is super easy and is supported until then, so it's whether the linux/bsd guys get to them first before the pirates
@glebglub I know.. I'm going to dual boot my linux couch laptop with Nobara and LTSC.. I've already been using Nobara, but now I still need to convert my old windows drive to LTSC. I just haven't needed to, so I haven't done it yet......... But I think it's a little more advanced enough to where many people won't even try it; and they might try linux first, since it's so much easier; unless they absolutely need windows for something. Which most people do not; they just need a browser........... But again, it's crazy how things expand when they start trending. Once the news starts announcing that last day of Win10 in 2025, there will be a freenzy of people talking about what to do next and I think it will start trending. If Microsoft is smart, they will have a "savior" answer to throw out there at that time, and either extend win10 for free or something, rather than charge.. Or maybe just drop the requirement for secure boot?? Idk.. If not, SOMETHING is going to trend when it all finally ends, and the herd will move wherever t^ktok tells them to. I really think it's coming- there's no reason that it shouldn't. They aren't going to apple and MS is dropping the ball hard: they have to go somewhere-- or take the risk to stay on win10. IDK, we'll see. I think there will be a wave.. Linux has gotten too good and their videos are ubiquitous now. It's so wide spread on just about every distro and how to install them, etc. It's not so obscure anymore, like it always was. I mean, there is a "main stream" linux culture on youtube now; not just the old neck beards anymore.
@@calholli yeah true, though I think for most people the work of conversion is much easier than nuke and pave, the paranoia of forgetting logons or files or even having something to copy it to, it's just getting over the paranoia of the pirating part (or having to pay even more money to do it legit). imo MS should have planned for swapping win10 to be windows Legacy, keeping it permanently in development for security stuff but lock it down and start converting it to assembly for efficiency, re-introducing 16-bit support and DOS support so it extends back to even win95 ISA manufacturing machines, and not adding new hardware support until needed. like a longer long-term service branch or something. like window's slackware or debian, where they then have (in today's standings) windows 11 as their fedora or whatever where it's the mid-point between old and new, and windows 12 being bleeding-edge only new hardware arch testing branch. but personally I feel like freeBSD is going to win over linux for the general windows users when push comes to shove for converting over, since it's closer to windows in the sense that it's a full OS with most of the bells and whistiles, and you don't have choice paralysis over what firewall to use when you eventually whittle down the 3487 distros to the 42 you might use but none of them for some reason has one. and if that's the case I see linuxheads kicking themself in the head having wasted that opportunity and start working on finally reducing fragmentation at its core, instead of creating more fragmentation by making a new solution to stop fragmentation that nobody uses. it's not like there's only really 3 major flavours of linux anyway, if you disregard slack/lfs/gentoo, just with a bunch of extra gubbins and a lick of paint and combed wiring that could easilly be diluted down to a nix-like script that applies on top of base arch/debian/fedora. but yeah, time will tell
That's it right there. When you can walk into Best Buy and walk out with a Linux laptop or desktop, the year of Linux will have finally arrived. Will we ever see that? Dunno. I hope so.
@@JeanPierreWhiteI think an Ubuntu notebook aisle would work nicely - familiar enough to set things up out of the box, an exhaustive forum for troubleshooting, and no Microsoft bloatware slowing down the hardware.
This is why I donate to KDE often. It's the closest to the comfort zone of those folks who would switch. Regardless of what folks feel about this oddity or that one ... KDE would lessen the anxiety of switching. I stopped evangelizing 15 years ago, if folks ask or if they find their way to Linux and need help then that's great. But I gave up being "that guy" a while ago. It honestly just turns off the plebs.
@@averdadeeumaso4003 Cinnamon is a pretty dated DE in my opinion and everyone who tries and modernize it, just makes it look like a dollar store KDE Plasma or Gnome.
Cinnamon is the way to go for the new user, it feels very familiar. People are not looking for glamour, they want things to stay much the same and just work properly. KDE is still way to buggy.
Windows has never forced people to upgrade based on their hardware not being sufficient for Windows 11. This is the first time where people will have to choose either to be without security updates, buy a whole brand new expensive machine to run Windows 11 or just switch to Linux. This is a lot different than all the other windows versions
@@utherlightbringer3868 Its really easy to install Linux. But that doesn't mean most people will do either because surprisingly for them, its actually quite hard. Do you seriously think most people care about unsupported hardware or software? Not at all! How many people disable updates on their phone, or not install them just because they don't like when it changes? For the normal non-tech savvy person, no one cares whether its supported or not. As long as it works & they don't have a reason to upgrade, they'll likely still continue to use it until it breaks or their actually given a reason to upgrade like stuff no longer working.
@@Zaptosis i have software like autohotkey that i need and cant be bothered to rewrite it in python cause script is too long and uses classes specifically written for autohotkey i used linux before like ubuntu 10.04 and 10.10 15 years ago its not that i cant use linux its just to much stuff that doesnt work.. i had fair share of linux brain farting with flash and alsa audio before pulse audio was out.. linux always has something that breaks and wont work for no apparent reason
Honestly, the crux of linux is the userbase itself - just look at NixOS, Arch community, the toxicity would destroy any and all interest in linux by people outside
I agree.. that's why I don't use them and don't recommend them to anyone. The linux nerds can have their cult distros.. I'll be sending new people to Nobara, Bazzite, Garuda, Zorin, Kubuntu, and Mint.. etc. instead
I don't think your going to see a huge jump to Linux With people struggling and having to have TPM 2.0 and the right CPU your going to see the biggest jump in new users. I can see Linux going up to 7% or even 8% in users from it's 4.4%. The changes Linux is making for new users like bluefin for new users and bazzite for gaming will get those 3 or 4 percent of people who have great hardware and is being hindered by TPM requirements by Microsoft.
Yep. Hardware requirements is one driver. Not enough on its own. Maybe more important is the influence of steam deck in making gaming more practical on linux in general.
I installed my first Linux in 1996 and switched my main OS to Linux in 2002, still dual booting when needed though... I don't care about the year of the desktop. I work in IT and Linux is doing great in companies backoffices, and I'm happy with that
My one friend was really interested to switching to linux like me from windows 10 and found the concept really interesting but unfortunately a large amount of his games are on xbox game pass and that has been a big thorn for him to switch to linux. I don't use game pass only steam so for me it was a no brainer. I have been using linux for more then a year now and is really happy with it.
SteamOS devices needs to put into big boxed stores to convince people to switch over cause Ubuntu didn’t help despite having an option Lenovo devices and people have a stigma of ChromeOS not being good. Linux distros that want help gain market share needs that level of advertising and be pre-installed.
I mean you should 100% not be advocating for ChromeOS devices if you care about actual Linux. Otherwise we'll end up with a locked down propritary platform & the second class open source alternative. Look at Android & how Google is trying to re-establish trusted computing with their play protect verification service to check if you're running on a signed Android OS essentially blacklisting custom ROM's. If you think ChromeOS is good, then that is the future of what will come to Linux if big tech companies get market dominance over the top few distros. This massive market fragmentation comes with many benefit as well as draw backs. It would be nice if we could collectively adopt superior technologies faster & decided on security improvements because right now Linux security is rather awful, but Android OS's like GrapheneOS show us the God tier security potential Linux could reach with todays tech & while remaining usable for end users.
@Zaptosis Chromium OS is what ChromeOS is based on, and that is open source. FydeOS is a privacy respecting version of ChromeOS, so I don't see a reason not to support it.
Win 10 won’t move the needle much - the issue is software compatibility. Hence, projects like WINE and Proton are gradually moving the needle in tandem with Linux-based hardware like the Steamdeck.
I wish people like you wouldn't say "software compatibility" when they mean "I want to play my games on it" - sure, WINE supports many non-games applications, it has done for years, but Proton is specifically about playing Windows games on Linux. There seems to be this "shame" by people who don't want to admit that it is just about games. Why is that?
@terrydaktyllus1320 It isn't for me. I dualboot and Windows usage is due to study requirements and also development, since most desktops are running Windows
@@terrydaktyllus1320 dont act like games no matter, the only true reason people are buying those powerful PCs and video cards are games! (unless you are not farming bitcoin or video editor or what ever else is your reason)
@@nikolaygrishin8209 "dont act like games no matter," I don't take instructions from strangers on the Internet. " the only true reason people are buying those powerful PCs and video cards are games! (unless you are not farming bitcoin or video editor or what ever else is your reason)" Sure, and they're all posing on social media counting their Ryzen cores and bragging about how many 4K screens they can drive simultaneously. A bunch of self-entitled narcissists that I have zero association with.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 "I don't take instructions from strangers on the Internet." You do as you please, it wont change the facts - Games among main reasons for hardware update if not the main one.
I do think the jump will be a bit bigger than with the last few versions of Windows. Everything from Vista to 10 ran on pretty much the same Pentium 4 baseline, so a lot of users probably grudgingly upgraded to a new version of Windows. And XP was so old that the marketshare was nowhere near the over 60% that 10 has right now. The Windows 10 to 11 upgrade actually requires new hardware to do officially, so that's a lot of people who have to switch.
Matt, you may be wrong on this one. I moved to MX Linux because of windows 11 and it's so call features like recall, Co-pilot, Microsoft Edge. Microsoft has also introduce a shitload of telemetry which has turned Window 11 into a personal data collection software and not an operating system. Time will tell what happens between Windows 11 and Linux.
Dunno dude, seems like more and more ppl are frustrated with windows, telemetry and AI shit. And even ppl like me (ms full stack architect) are moving to linux slowly. In my team three guys went to mac, two still using windows but one wants to experiment with linux after he saw my slick KDE and i went for linux already. I get that the most ppl will just buy hw supporting win 11, but now with gaming, steamdeck and louder privacy activists I believe linux marketshare will grow more and more. I also believe Microsoft is contributing to that.
As a Windows 10 user myself, I really think there is a huge difference between the retirement of the other Windows versions to what happens in October 25 with Windows 10. The difference lays in the system requirements of Windows 11 and as the result of it, the need to buy a new computer. The timing of that move is so bad, it could not been worse. The cost of living, rent, groceries, fuel for the car etc. are at a very high level. We have insecurities all over the world, war's going on, your next president is frankly speaking a security risk on two legs. In this environment it is highly unlikely that people storm into store's and buy new computer's, given the fact that most of the current machines are perfectly functional. My case is a bit different, my PC is 14 years old, but I upgraded parts like RAM and the graphics card regularly over the years and the system does what I want it to do. That's the reason I have switched to Linux Mint a couple of months ago. I'm aware of the fact that the PC market is in decline, other devices like tablets, smartphones and watches have conquered that segment. But many people like me like the opportunity to upgrade their system instead of buying new stuff constantly. A factor to consider is that people have started thinking more about their environment, they care for sustainable solutions in their life. To throw away a perfectly fine piece of hardware is very contradictory from that point of view. Greetings from Germany Have a Merry Christmas and a good start into 2025!
@zwabTheRealOne as far as I know, that Version is a downsized Win 10 with selected features and it's practically frozen. No feature updates, just security once. It costs round about 60 Euros. It's an alternative, I have to look what features are included. Most office machines aren't equipped to handle 3D applications, video editing and such. But I'll look into it. Thanks.
@@MarcoKrieger W10 will only be getting security updates soon enough anyways, before it stops unless you pay MS. Main reason I know about the IOT LTSC thing is because its something suggested by the massgrave guys that make the activation scripts that activate windows for free. Think they have a table somewhere with the version difference too. For me personally, I retain a windows install that I just play games on. Most of my games are playable under Linux with proton, but certain annoyances like VRR not working properly under my DE for applications that are not Wayland native mean I just do most of my gaming under windows.
100% agree, we're not gonna see some mass exodus to Linux over Win11 or even Win12. However, the forced migration to Win11 is what convinced my little brother to finally give Linux a try (and of course I installed the apps he'd need for him, showed him how to do updates, et cetera) and now he really likes it. He still gets frustrated occasionally bc there's Windows-isms he's stuck on, but ykno. No mass exodus but we definitely are getting some newbies ☺️🖤
Hi! I'm someone who switched from Win10 to Linux because of how much I hate Win11's AI features. I have a handful of artist friends who have been considering the switch too. Recall is such a hated feature that some people who hear about it refuse to use win11.
since your friends are artists, if they're beholden to adobe and can't switch, they can always go for windows 10 ltsc iot. hopefully by the time support ends for it in 2032, adobe will have changed tact, or a competent competitor will have appeared in the field
this time it may work because linux became actually usable for general public, especially for games, meanwhile who cares how much people use linux at these point? linux userbase has to be just big enough so you can't ignore it, and we actively approaching to the tipping point.
Its different this time around, people around the World are hurting for money. So Linux getting to 7-9% market share is very doable in the next year or two. Linux has gone from 1% to 4.5% in a short time, thats a fact.
As desktop applications gradually get replaced by in-browser cloud apps, the relevance of the operating system decreases. This could certainly lower the bar to entry for Linux based operating systems. However, if we've already lost the freedom to use, modify and share the [cloud] software, it's a poor consolation that people are using Linux.
I think the issue is people don't understanding that there is an option outside of Windows. I run around tech forums and such and see people complain about Windows all the time. I feel like you lose the right to freedom but you see everyone else doing it as well and if you don't run in tech circles and understand that you give up freedom and data to Windows and M$, you just feel like everyone else is doing it too so oh well. Been using Linux since 2000, I am happy we don't have an influx of simple users, I'm glad we are tech heads and understand what BASH is.
Linux has garbage marketing. I learned about Linux from my dad, who is a mac users. Steve Jobs did not mistake Linux for Unix, I would of been a freebsd user instead.
@@henry789 You are correct on that. Another place people learn about it is through unversity if you are in IT or computer science. By that time, a person is pretty much set in their computing ways.
I wasn't aware it needed "saving". I've been using Linux since 1996 and as my main OS since support for Windows 7 ended. I could care less if it has 4% or 94% desktop penetration, it wouldn't change how I use it today.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 thank you for putting my feelings into words. Linux has been doing fine for decades and ofc it could be improved but market share is not the be all and end all of succese
To be honest, I would like to see a little more support for Linux however I don't want it to be much bigger than it is. I like it this way. We exist, we can game and our computers are stable, we have many choices and we are relatively free from attack
Yes, we shouldn't try to get people who are normies. We should get people who care about privacy, security, open source ideals, freedom, all the good things linux stands for. I got my mom on Linux because it was usable for her & she values privacy & doesn't want the government or big tech spying on her stuff even if its fairly mundane & she's loving ZorinOS. Though we should avoid trying to onboard people who will want big tech "features" & all these control measures put onto Linux. Only focus on helping those who are at least X% in ideological alignment with the ideals of open source.
@@centy64 What you "feel" is irrelevant to me. I simply responded to the words you wrote. If that's an issue for you then don't write them in the first place. This is a public discussion forum, expect "the public" to reply to you sometimes. (God help us all if this is how the modern education system teaches debating skills!)
The good news is that Linux doesn't depend on market share, since for the most part, nothing's for sale. And as more and more apps are developed to do the job that Adobe, et al. try to keep to themselves, the less we need large numbers. Linux is a fine case of the door being open to anyone who wants in without trying to force anyone to enter.
Personally, my _plan_ is to switch to Linux for my next build. I have looked at my use-case I should just be able to use it. I bought a steam deck recently and it has shown me that, yeah, largely it'll work for most of what I want it. But my PC is currently working, and I haven't found the cash to allocate to the next build, so I haven't yet. And honestly? I am changing for an ideological reason. But Windows is just comfortable at this point, hence why I am dragging my feet into doing the switch. I realize that me claiming that I am not switching due to having to deal with all my data and "wanting to do it right" is, in a way, procrastinating it. I know I will run into an edge case or five (different monitors, HDR, multiple drives, peripherals like steering wheels, a really old printer) and I know I will need months before I am in a similar place as I am with Windows currently. So, largely, I agree. I don't think the Linux community has the infrastructure to deal with people who don't have someone to hand hold them (IT departments could be the ones making this change, but that's a can of worms), and if they are going to pay... Well, it becomes hard to justify paying someone who doesn't have the brand presence of Microsoft.
You don't need a next build, what you need is an SSD to dual boot in your existing Computer. You can put more than one drive in there. ..Any more excuses LOL
Linux already won the desktop, for me. I've used Linux on my desktop for around decade now. And it's only gotten better, and it has changed a lot, and gotten very good, and the last couple of years there's been a lot of new and interesting projects which are making supporting desktop Linux ever more automated and easier. Containerization and immutability with the automation tools built-in, the potential for making traditional packaging obsolete, or at least only relevant for IT and advanced support people, then an audience of users already familiar with A/B automated update systems (via Android and other mobile solutions) means that the capability for support has never been greater. And 5 millions is an absurdly low number, we forget the massive number of computers being sold and used everyday in the world. 4% of desktop use is a deceptively low percentage number, but it already implies at least 100 million desktop devices as a very low and pessimist estimate. Earning 5 million more desktop users worldwide would be absolutely nothing, barely a tiny blip in terms of support demand compared to what is already being done. We tend to forget that there are more computers than people in the world, and we make millions of them every month. For me, the year of Linux on the desktop has been every year, for the last 10 years.
I don't see any upside if loads of windows people decided to switch to linux. It's not like linux distros has marketing goals to hit in order to get funded, so who cares if people join or not? A big influx of ex windows users would just flood the forums with people complaining that linux does things differently than windows and the need to guide those people would probably suck the fun out of linux community forums.
I don't think we'll see a big growth spurt in conversions. However, I think we might see a huge increase of higher spec used computers on the market as the normies get told they need a new computer to go to windows 11.
If they have expensive systems, they probably know enough to bypass that. My sure, some. I didn't say nobody would come to Linux because of Win10, just not the masses
No, we won't be seeing a landslide. Those who actually _do_ switch to full-time Linux after another Windows dies are generally fence-sitters like I myself used to be: folks who have been slowly gravitating towards Linux, been dual booting for a while to use a few Windows-only apps while getting more comfortable with Linux, finally deciding that that last Windows upgrade, which might actually have broken those Windows-only apps, just ain't worth the pain anymore. In my case, I got fed up when the Windows installation I was using almost exclusively for The Sims 2 decided I needed to "upgrade" to Win10, which screwed up my dual-boot so badly I had to wipe my hard drive.
Yeah, I haven't been trying to get people to switch or try linux to get away from windows. The couple times I've suggested it was more so to give some hardware someone asked me about saving a second shot before getting dumped in the e-waste bin.
I'm glad to be one of those making the transition now. Granted, I already had some free software politics and no love for Windows, but I've always been pretty sloppy and inert about my own systems and the end of support was the push I needed to finally start learning. It came at the right time to become an instant hyperfixation, but there's so much new information to synthesize from disparate sources, I can see how it could be a massive pain in the ass if I were rushed and had to treat it as just another annoying high-stakes chore. I think it makes sense to assume that the software monopolies are not about to come crashing down, but I enjoy thinking about the prospect of hard-to-predict transformative media trends. It brings to mind how, of all things, the "Uganda Knuckles" meme is, I believe, widely accepted as a historical landmark in the history of VRChat that directly resulted in a ton of people joining that community long-term. Maybe at some point the stars will align and GNU/Linux will be featured in something not directly aimed at a tech discourse audience and that will spark new interest. Maybe really slick footage of window managers will become a TikTok trend haha. You never know I suppose. Whatever happens I'm sure a lot of devs and organizational leadership are always working hard to improve the beginner experience, which is good because at the end of the day it's community and accessibility that are going to determine whether new enthusiasts come and how long they stay. And I want normies to come for their own sake! It's the prosocial, "intellectual mutual aid" aspects of free software culture that might really be the thing that works, imho. Been enjoying your channel, thanks for your work!
2:18 I think the thing actually is, while moving from one windows version to another is already a change it is less of a change then moving to Linux instead. Which I think held ppl up and they just went with the "less intrusive" way
Ive been a linux guy since 2006, i started with Ubuntu LTS 6.06 (Dapper Drake), learned the UI, learned how to use the terminal, and even started getting into tinkering with code and making small contributions It actually changed my career path with all of the skills i learned. I know it sounds cliche, but linux literally changed my life.
Linux growth isn't really a technical problem for Linux devs to solve. They only think it is because Linux devs like to solve problems with technical skills. I'll put it out there: Linux *as an operating system* is easily "ready" and good enough. The hurdle is application support: Adobe suite, MS Office, Anticheat, etc The barrier is a commercial/political one - to persuade the major software powers to support Linux.
Actually, PC sellers, just need to start selling computers with Linux... It's not complicated, that is literally all that needs to happen for the entire PC-scene to change completely. Atm they only sell computers with windows on it, not a single PC has Linux on it... of course there are some sellers that sell only Linux machines, and no Windows machines, which also doesn't help... They need to sell BOTH, not just one or the other. That way, people who primarily buy windows machines, get exposes to Linux machines, and might get curious about them enough to try them, etc... That's the point, a mixed market, makes people more aware of their choices, and opens their minds up to trying new things. And once Linux gets some traction, then at some point we'll see a huge jump to Linux, and then some manner of equilibrium forming between the two operating systems. because software isn't actually a problem, wine and proton handle the translation layers... So aside from a few rare exceptions, 90% of all programs on windows, work just fine on Linux, without corporations having to do anything in particular. So no, they just need to start selling Linux PC's together with Windows PC's, in local sellers... That is it. : /
I'm eye rolling, because I've been installing linux on peoples systems for a good two weeks now. The support bubble isn't as difficult as one might think. I rustdesk in on them, talk them through what needs to be done, show them octopi and go my merry way. Never knew of "the myth". I know people are who are just fedup with Windows, and 90% of what they do at home, they can do on linux without much hassle.
I'm a Linux enthusiast and would love for Linux to have a lot more 'market share' than it does, but I don't think Linux should seek to become another MacOS or Windows. It's enough for Linux to just be Linux and present a good alternative to people who are sick of Microsoft and Apple's BS.
One of the things that keeps me from going full Linux (I use it for network stuff but not desktop) is the lack of autohotkey (the Linux alternatives are terrible atm) and a proper fancy zones alternative that allows you to have a window snap to overlap two zones at once by dropping it in the middle and auto activate without shift like fancy zones does (which is pretty much essential if you have a vertical monitor and multi-task
Switched to Linux this year, never touched Linux before now, lul. been using it for a few months now though... Funny thing is, i've forgotten i'm on Linux, several times, simply because all my needs are met with Linux. xD I can play all the games i want to play just fine, and internet browser works the same way they do on windows so... no problem! :)
@@DV-ml4fm I'm not "trying" Linux, i switched, completely, i'm not dual-booting or anything, i straight up rawdogged it... I'm not using windows ever again. :3
@MyouKyuubi My apologies. Anyway, that is great that you have gone all in on linux. Windows is practically a data mining OS today rather than an operating system.
windows 10 is going to hit eol, that means a bunch of regular people will spontaneously run through the entire linux curriculum, suddenly be masters of the terminal and vim, and switch all their software to foss!
While I don't think that it's going to be the big "year of the linux desktop" because of a Windows version expiring, there still is going to be some influence. I only ever went from Win 7 to 10 when Win 7 went out of service, and went from Win 10 to Linux in March this year because there's no way in hell I'll have Win 11 on a personal computer. We've seen an increase from under 3.0% to 4.1-4.5% since Jan 2023 which is a 30-50% increase and that's huge. When win 10 kicks the bucket in October 2025, I predict we might see another jump to somewhere between 5-6% usage, maybe 7% if I'm optimistic. This isn't going to be the end of Windows since it has so many other things going for it (software compatibility, default OS etc), but it's definitely going to be a nice little jump.
"Necessity is the mother of invention" --- When win10 finally closes the doors, there will be a buzz of people talking about linux all over the internet.. and many people are going to jump ship by impulse at the last minute, because they don't have a choice. I won't be surprised if we double the userbase by 2026.
Well Linux is not doing a great Job. People should come to Linux for its own merits but instead people come because they are angry. As many people that come to Linux due to emotion a vast majority return to Windows because Linux fails to support the software they need. Steam is doing a decent job for certain gammers but we cant forget about creative people who make Photos ans Music for a living. We need to improve our software.
@@computernerd8157 They have Gimp and DaVinci Resolve... and look, I get it. It would be much more likely if Adobe premiere could carry over... They got it to work for Apple/iMac.. Which is basically linux. So there's no reason why it can't be built to work on Linux. Personally I would just stop supporting a company that has you cornered like that.. but that's just me.
2 types of people that use windows: -Those who could install windows themselves. -Those who did not install (and can't) it yet use it as their computer was bought. The first one could install Linux but does not for his own reasons. There is no (few) thing you can do for them. The second ones ? They MAY use Linux, but as for Windows, you must install and set it up for those people. They want the web, they want videos, music... Just give them something that will not break no matter the update (Debian FTW). But don't expect them to install and do the thing they did not for windows. Those are users only, but they still may be Linux users, if you would do the tech part for them.
Group 2 should stay on Windows or get a mac. Their is no reason for them to get on Linux unless they are compelled to Linux due to a last drawn being drawn by the company that their system is under. I do not preach come to Linux, I will only promote it based on the users needs.
@computernerd8157 And group 2 has precisely basic needs, they don't need specific softwares that has no replacement under linux. They only need firefox, vlc, thunderbird. So yes, they would appreciate Linux, though maybe not Arch Linux.
Group 2 is your average person. They buy the $500 and below laptops from Walmart/best buy. They don't care about specs, they just want something to basically web browse. Honestly most of these people don't even know they're running windows, or that alternative operating systems exist. They could easily use Linux and never even know.
@@bobmauranne6829 Depends on the persons, future interest. People change and their needs evolve as well. Linux needs to become better or I am not going to recommend it. The person in group 2 might develope a taste for games, music creation, art or get a job that requires Microsoft compatible software. Unless you have a passion for Linux, their really is no point to recommend it until we make it better. Linux can do music but it sucks at it. Artist have some option but are they the best options? Programmers love to program but will Linux pay the bills? People come to Linux and most people leave Linux because we are not taking notes and improving it enough. If I was in group 2, I would not use Linux because what can Linux do that Windows cant? I get more disadvantages for using Linux. If I really hated Microsoft. I would get a Mac mini and call it a day. I can run all Linux Software in a Mac and Run all mainstream stuff. I have better software for Music support and the computer system evolves as my interest do. Even staying in Windows is a better option for most people because of work. I can use my phone to just browse the web. I dont need a full blown desktop to do you basic computing task.
@@computernerd8157 "what can Linux do that Windows can't ?" Run fast, smoothly (i insist on this word) for basic tasks on a low spec laptop for someone that don't give a f*** about programing (in category 2 ? Think again...)
There are two big obstacles to using Linux: financial software (basically the electronic checkbook) like Quicken, and tax software for e-filing. The only alternative to Windows is Mac. There are free versions of the above, but the checkbook software cannot communicate with the bank to download transactions, and the tax software only allows printing the return and mailing it in, not e-filing. If Quicken or one of its competitors produced a full version that runs on Linux (preferably Mint or Ubuntu), updates itself automatically, and downloads from financial institutions, I would be able to switch to Linux by the Windows 10 transition date of 10/25/25. If H&R Block or one of its competitors would build a USA and state tax package for tax year 2025 that would run on Linux, update itself and the tax tables online, and e-file normal returns to the IRS and state revenue departments, I would be able to use it to file my taxes in 2026 for the 2025 tax year on Linux. Also, I would need full function printer drivers (my printer is an all-in-one that also scans and faxes, though I don’t use the fax function since I don’t have a landline). And the printer makers don’t seem interested in writing Linux drivers either. So I will most likely be forced to go from Windows 10 to Mac, probably using an iMac Mini with separate monitor, and forego the wonders of Linux, unless I can afford an additional “tinkering” computer to experiment with Linux.
@@allanrichardson1468 Yeah, can't condemn you, it's not like a normal individual can change anything or like there's a choice in the matter. Changing countries just for this feels a bit much lol. All countries have plenty of problems. Just different ones.
@@Winnetou17 Same. I really can't fathom how this thing can be set up in such a hostile way. And they expect you to pay for Quicken on top of it?!?!? In Brazil you can fill your taxes on the web or using a dedicated client app written in Java that is fully multiplatform (even runs in FreeBSD!) and that is distributed for free by the the Brazilian equivalent of the IRS itself. And it has been that way since, i dunno, 2005 or something.
@@averdadeeumaso4003 Imagine Linux without Proton. Cope and Seethe. I know it's a large pill to swallow but good news! It's a suppository! Bet you run SystemD too haha
Thanks for your take on things Matt. I've never seen your channel before, and I have a little feedback: starting out by saying "I don't actually know" does not inspire confidence ... why not take the time to find out? At least give us the impression that you know what you're talking about =)
It would have to be the job of a specific distro, say, Ubuntu or Linux Mint or PopOS. They would have to contact big corporations like Adobe, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. to work directly with them. They'd also have to work with OC manufacturers like HP, Dell, Lenovo, ASUS etc. to preinstall their distro. They'd also have to spend a ton of money into marketing, and hope it pays off. It's not going to be easy for any company to enter a market where there will be already 2 working options for most people: Windows 11 and macOS. Mint, Canonical and System76 aren't in that market. Sure, System76 makes PCs, but they're much more niche and most Mac and PC users don't know about their hardware, even if they've heard about their OS.
Most people don't want to "learn computers" they just want to use software without any hassle. I remember how annoyed many where when they had to choose between 32 bit and 64 bit and weren't sure which one they should click on. Even then, the 32 bit version would always work.
Windows having a severe security/privacy issue that's in the news for weeks and Elon Musk tweeting about it. Something like that is how change happens. Not by users just suddenly deciding getting out of their comfort zone.
@@bologna3048 It caused a spike in Linux users in Norway from 18% to 29%, for one month, then it went back down to 18%, lol. On the upside, Norway probably has the highest percentage of Linux users, in the world. : )
Recently went from Win11 to Linux Mint (Wilma), it's day and night when it comes to performance and very easy to use, it honestly feels like windows without blotware, that's how intuitive it is. With steam adding support to the Linux environment and community tools mimicking and even surpassing official apps I can honestly envision a future in which Linux is not relegated as "an OS for nerds" and becomes sort of streamlined. All it needs is for PC manufacturers to not add windows as a pre installed OS and people might adopt easy to use and set up Linux distros as their default option.
For what it's worth, I think SteamOS is going to be the big Linux moment. My experience with the Steam Deck prompted me to make my new PC a linux PC. The Steam Deck was fantastic! Not just for being small and portable and playing games -- but you stuck it in the dock, connected it to a monitor, added a keyboard and mouse, put it into desktop mode and you used it as a PC. KDE Plasma was also a very slick interface to use. Now I have a Linux gaming machine: steam handles all my games, most of my software is now open-source and Linux-based anyway, and I've gotten the one or two Windows-only programs I still needed going through compatibility software. I was a little sick of Windows, I will admit. Updates not installing properly. Random processes spiking my CPU and revving the fans every two minutes - one update would fix it, next update would set if off again. And having to contact Microsoft and wait for official support -- when you can just ask a Linux forum and someone might even hammer you out a script which will fix it for you. The big stumbling block for Linux is the idea you need to know code in order to use it -- by that I mean the amount of stuff I've had to do in the terminal since I started using it. Things were just a lot simpler in Windows, especially installing and uninstalling software. My mum can use her Windows laptop no problem but there would be a barrier if I thought of setting her up with Linux.
All I can speak of is my own experience, but my jump into Linux coincided with my main Windows desktop not being officially supported for an upgrade to Windows 11 (I know it's easy enough to get around this), which spurred my interest in giving Linux another shot, and here I am 6 months later addicted to learning and distro hopping and absorbing all I can. Linux is my main now and I'll only ever have a small Windows partition or VM. Windows 10 worked completely fine for me (with usual Microsoft annoyances obviously), but when Microsoft said I would have to get 11 (and potentially a new PC) I was annoyed enough to jump into Linux.
Oh Matt, you were talking about a possible massive influx of new users, and how that would play. I guess you were probably not on the old Usenet newsgroups in late 1993. It became know as "The September That Never Ended", because every September a new bunch of college kids would get access and annoy everyone until they calmed down. Then AOL stuck CDs on every magazine cover which allowed ANYONE to get online, and many many of them were not about to learn the rules of the locals! That September never did end :)
In a sense, Windows 11 has gotten my brother to let me help him give Linux a spin. The factory installation of his laptop now fails to update itself, making it a long-term security hazard. And I already converted him to LibreOffice by pre-installing it for him and him having his school Office license expiring at an inopportune time. His main concern is being able to play his games though, which I already checked with ProtonDB and know for sure will work out for him. What I am concerned about is his PC being an Nvidia duel GPU laptop, so I pray to the penguin gods that this will work out. My father, who I already converted, did mention that his laptop just worked after I installed Linux on it, this was an old one we got without a drive. Not really an example of what you are talking about here, since I heavily push for giving Linux a try when it makes sense. But successful conversions due to Windows failing nonetheless, either from the OS being too heavy for the hardware or failing to update itself.
I am from India and Linux is becoming popular here especially because it's due to the hang of windows in old system and when we install Linux it becomes more useful and speedy in performance. This is so great because it saves money and reduces e-waste . Normally there was a time when windows pirated version was popular even in government offices of our country but they develop a Linux based version boss and it is so popular in government offices . Linux is stored in our schools but due to the pre installed strategy of Microsoft windows is still used by everyone. I personally switched windows to Linux after using it for nearly 15 years. Firstly I struggled a lot to learn the Linux . What's it is so easy to use it now and the main factor I liked that Linux consumes less power compared to windows.
I did try to reinstall win11 yesterday. But once again I discovered that ms and their landholding seriously slows down my workflow. Powershell is ok prefer bash. Been using linux for 5+ yrs. Awesome video. The future of Linux will be interesting.
I feel your missing a very important thing this time. the fact that many people after the pandemic cannot afford to buy a brand new PC. I honestly feel there will be a lot of people switching to Linux this time due to the fact they financially cannot move to windows 11. with all the other windows you mention, it did not require purchasing a new PC. THIS time I seriously think a lot will make the switch, maybe not on the scale your referring to, but I do think it will happen.
@@HOBBS-4 exactly, and this reason is why I think while it may not be huge like he's talking about people claiming in the past, imo there will definitely be quite a few people making the switch only due to financial reasons.
I think the rate of new users would increase, though. I'm a year in Linux and nowhere near knowing the kernel or anything, I just play games and Design, vector apps, 3D, drawing... it all works! Some stuff came with difficulty (Affinity Designer), but recently it has come to working condition for everything a regular gamer needs. Within my circles or in public conciousness it Now, this year, is a known name. It'll grow quicker, but it won't be a boom. The boom could hurt anyway.
I have a question about switching to Linux while the rest of my team is on Windows 11 - I know Linux can send and receive emails to/from Win11. But there are several messenger apps in Windows. Can Linux interface with those messenger apps?
i think if general windows users are going to move to anything, it'd be freeBSD as it's a complete OS from the get-go, as opposed to linux which you have to do some hunting to find a distro that is fully-featured out of the box which introduces you to choice paralysis, outdated advice, flame wars, etc.. but then you have to compile everything yourself from source on freeBSD so they might not choose it and instead just eventually get told "hey windows 10 LTSC IoT is supported until 2032 lol just change your reg key to this generic key, reboot, and run this activation script" and not have to give a toss for 7 more years
День назад
You are right... I tried, I even turned my old W10 into an LMDE, but it is very hard to deal with issues like PDFs... I ended up buying a new to me PC to be able to have W11...
The year of the Linux is coming true in India! Have you ever see the last 2 years of Linux' marketshare there? Linux is so way ahead from macOS and growing month after month! It's a amazing marketshare in a country with 1.5 BILLION people/consumers!
This is way: more consumers is equal a more power over desktop market that couldn't be ignored by major techs as Adobe, Microsoft, etc... its a cascade effetc, influencing more and more companies to launch theirs forthcoming softwares versions to Linux!
India makes up 12% of all Linux users and will grow by a lot in the next year. 32 bit is no longer supported in Windows 11 and Core Duo's, Core 2 CPUs are all blocked from Windows 11. India having the cheapest people in the World leads in these low spec CPUs.
If you want Linux to grow on the desktop. Install it on your parents PC. Great learning experience and surprisingly stable if you choose the right distro.
The Windows 10 going out of service will be a bigger deal this go around simply because of the hardware requirements. Those who don't want to spend money on a new laptop will look for alternatives. I believe more than usual will come over to Linux. Not a flood, but more for sure. All my Windows 10 boxes will end up with Linux on them. This is the first time I've installed linux onto a machine long term, I've always used live versions to recover data off bad HDD's etc. I "almost" bought a Framework laptop to install Linux onto. Maybe sometime in 2025 when I've lived with Linux long enough to be confident I can do everything I need to without compromises. Only found one gotcha so far, have to resort to ChromeOS.
@@bitterseeds Yep. Regardless if there are tariffs or not, there will be a surge of people buying win 11 computers which will drive prices up the closer we get to October. Recycling your old computer may make the most sense.
When windows 7 stoped supporting literally everything encluding steam i switched to win10 also i hated the instability and the large updates but i lived Then i saw the same thing happening with win 10 and converted to fedora then to mint as a precaution. And i love it now i duel boot mint and tiny10.
SteamOS is the closest start. A commercial centralised standard. Windows is simply more feature rich then Linux, but apps are offering more and more Linux versions. If all the games coming out run fine on SteamOS then people who play games will happily consider SteamOS.
Windows 7 end of life. What was stopping people from leaving Windows and joing Linux? Same thing with Windows 8. Now there's telemetry, privacy concerns, and encrapification of software. Windows will continue to get worse. I don't believe everyone will jump ship and join Linux, willy nilly. It'll be business as usual. Just the slow increase. Why should we rely on one software, let alone run one OS for everything. Gimp is not the photoshop alternative. It's an alternative. Krita, photopea, inkscape, and sure there's plenty more. I don't trust Microsoft. They will screw everything up.
It will never be a 5% to 90%. It will be 2%, 4%, 6%, 10% ect until it meets a cap where it'll need commercial acceptance and support to grow more. I just want Linux to be a globally viable 3rd OS family, I want to see it by default in budget mainstream laptops in Walmart or Amazon
Good points. I had been toying with Linux on dual-boot configurations since tech-vlog Mobuzz mentioned Ubuntu phones (which ultimately failed) and the cute blonde girl got my curiosity up with her mock affection for Ubuntu. After years of watching desktop Linux get better, including a stint of homelessness in whick the best I could come up with was a Linux laptop or two, it still didn't win me over. I had a couple hundred dollars worth of DRMed iTunes media (which Apple was already finding ways to effectively erode) and the good negative scanner for a temporary hobby of film photography which only worked on Mac and Windows. It took Windows 10 showing egregious malevolence to outweigh just those two things for me. Now, you couldn't coerce me to go back to Windows. And by that point, I'd long since sworn off Mac as a world of overpriced and often-crappy proprietary hardware.
I personally hope that the people using Windows will continue using Windows. Think about it, if Linux grabbed a large part of desktop computing, you would suddenly have a lot of corporate interest, and big companies will be trying to figure out how to make money off of it, and that's never a good thing. Add to that, Linux would be a much larger target for the people that write viruses and malware. I'd much rather be a part of a smaller, niche community.
Windows 10 support being dropped won't make people flood to Linux, but if Microsoft decides to throw up a popup in October 2025 asking them to pay the $30 to get one more year of support... that might piss some people off badly enough that they start looking into alternatives.
Linux users have less to fear from hackers, than windows users though? Linux is way more secure than windows, on a fundamental level. For one, nothing happens on a Linux computer, unless the super user gives explicit permission first, so... Hackers have a really hard time even OBTAINING the information they need, to take over a Linux system, they need to go through really round-about and long-winded methods to break into someone's system.
Hi, I'm the Windows user who neither can (due to arbitrary limitations) nor wants to upgrade to Windows 11. I've been using Debian 12 + GNOME full time for the last three weeks or so.
Perhaps Linux would not be so attractive if it became more mainstream and ceded to commercial pressures. The allure of Linux for many people is that is different and is not contolled by large corporations seeking to maximize profits.
can’t believe it, but the thing that is stopping me from using Linux for real work is software availability even though for my actual work Linux is better. I simply require Teams, MS 365 for the cruff on top of real work.
Help support my channel! patreon.com/thelinuxcast
i have been using Linux and have Manjaro, and others. I've been using windows too. this is what i have found. 1 the attitude of Linux users is hideously arrogant. not a joke. the RTFM attitude is real. 2. where actually is a central point of information for any brand of linux that you can use if your laptop goes down. it is not going to appeal to people if you have to spend 6 days looking for drivers for you speakers, and go into the depths of the internet to find them. most people don't have that level of interest. 3 command lines. it maybe quick, but that was why windows was invented, and became popular, people hate command lines, it's that simple. DOS was command line driven. 4. the software feels awkward. it either needs specialised knowledge to use, or fix, or just set-up right. IE: boardcom Wi-Fi setup. 5. it isn't supported a great deal of the time, especially in the main programme. like Netflix. the programme people actually use, and that people would be attracted into using if it was supported. it is still a geeks toy basically. 6 people are expecting others to convert, without giving them something they can use, when they do have to convert
I agree with Linus Torvalds, Linux can become more popular if Linux comes preinstalled on computers like Windows is.
SteamOS on hand helds!! :D / :3c
@@YourComputer what about people who need Windows?
@@RooterDelWifiXs Then they wouldn't be buying the PCs with Linux preinstalled. And there's always QEMU for the few essential programs. But if Linux gains enough of a market share, these essentials would end up being cross-platform anyway. These answers should have been obvious.
No one really "needs" Windows, actually. Like no one actually "needs" telegrams, wind turbines and Google Search.
Being preinstalled and that someone near you might know how to fix it is the unfair advantage of Windows.
We wouldn't want it to be the Year of the Linux Desktop. If it was, we'd have to stop saying that each year is the Year of the Linux Desktop. That's like telling Arch users they can't use the letters B T and W.
You'll stop me using B, T and W when you prise the caps and switches from my cold, lifeless keyboard.
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I use Arch BTW.
YotLD
I was a die hard windows fan but this recall stuffs, copilot and always tweaking my pc for privacy reasons made me switch to linux a month ago. I switched to debian with KDE plasma and the way am enjoying linux and learning it am never going back to windows 🤝
Keep up!
I've been working with IT teams for over 15 years. If the vast majority of people using Windows don't know Linux, it's no surprise that a generation of IT managers who learned on Windows might not be familiar with Linux either. When I talk to them, they often admit they don't use it. I try to promote Linux in my work, but when the IT team itself doesn't use it, how can we expect regular users who only need a browser and Excel to make the switch?
IT team is composed by ordinary ppl
Technical knowledge isn't always associated with better decision..it is what it is
@@hermespymander9167 Yes I am sure, but normally when you work in an IT team, you must at least be curious about all systems. When I started in IT, I learned about Linux. However, IT guys now buy Macs instead of installing Linux.
What is surprising to me is IT guys that don't know how to use Linux, since most everything runs on Linux now a days. And I'm not talking about desktop.
@@HOBBS-4 I work in a group of 32 factories worldwide for a US-based company. Our IT infrastructure includes Windows Server, Azure Cloud, and the Office 365 suite. All desktops and laptops are running Windows 11.
For European operations, we have a dedicated division in Spain to handle IT support tickets. However, we often need to wait for US-based teams to resolve issues.
Want to hear something funny? While talking to someone of our IT helpdesk, I mentioned UNIX.
He didn't know UNIX.
😐😐😐
Windows 10 is not going to save linux - Windows 11 will
also predatory corperate greed from Microsoft.
I switch to Linux because I literally hated Windows. People say they hate Windows, but do they really? or just saying so. My was a real statement and I install Linux and never looked back. The ones that say they hate Windows, well most might not know there are alternatives or just don't know how to install an alternative.
I hate Windows and I know Linux exists, but I can't do everything on Linux that I can on Windows, so I can't switch over to it.
@@c0wg0dYou're just lying to yourself
@@c0wg0d I say you can do everything on Linux. As long your not using corporate Windows software in a professionally fashion. I switch and found ways to use nothing but Linux. But I'm not doing anything professionally in the commercial fashion. Your statement is true if you are. If you're a true Windows gamer, this statement is also true. I'm a gamer, but I play with only Linux games. So I don't have to look at Windows.
To be fair, one of my computers no longer meeting Microsoft's arbitrary hardware list, 1 of my 2 computers is now using Linux.
Same.. I'm already dual booting on my old hardware. MS is leaving us no choice for our older stuff.. People are going to switch in mass, out of necessity- on their older PC's. I'm sure everyone will still have a new windows 11 rig too.. but the older stuff is going to Linux.. It's already happening and we aren't even there yet.
What's going to push the Linux desktop is Valve pushing steamOS. That and microsoft slowly making Windows more annoying to use than Linux.
Once more OEMs are installing Linux on devices for pseudo game consoles, marketshare will slowly grow, people will want more software and support for it, the companies doing that will have Linux be a part of their workflow in some meaningful way.
For me though, Windows 11 is just such an unpleasant experience every time I'm forced to use it that I'm jumping ship out of spite. At least when I'm horribly annoyed at Linux I can give it the credit of not being paid software. Windows is, and has no excuse for being so bad.
It's different this time.. At the end of windows 7, they literally gave us windows 10 for FREE. Now they are forcing you to buy new hardware or switch to a different OS. We are already at 4% desktop.. and up to 6% if you count steamOS. I think Linux will pass 10% market share by 2026. The rest of the world is switching over much faster than we are. With Windows 11 being an objectively worse OS, new outlook having such a botched rollout, MS forcing people onto new hardware and so many Linux distros reaching a Mastery level polish lately-- the switchovers will be noticeable. It's brewing a perfect storm. There will be a measurable wave that happens; there's even a chance for it to go viral if it's reported in the news enough.. or if it becomes a ti k to k trend or something.
It is different this time, people around the World are hurting for money. I'm helping a small Business switch to Linux Fedora Silverblue. This used to be unheard of, its now a reality.
@@HOBBS-4 For sure.. I agree. Even if most people I know still have a newer windows 11 rig.. They are still converting all their older machines to linux right now. Simple PC's that people use just to get on FB and youtube, and some email, etc.. They are getting converted all around me. My friend just set his g-mothers pc up with Linux Mint a few weeks ago, and she barely even noticed. All she really uses is the browser anyway, and it's pinned to the task bar. So it has been seamless for her.
@@calholli 10% is a bit of a stretch for 2026 imo. personally I'd be looking more at the true end-date of windows 10 which is 2032 - illegally upgrading to windows 10 ltsc iot is super easy and is supported until then, so it's whether the linux/bsd guys get to them first before the pirates
@glebglub I know.. I'm going to dual boot my linux couch laptop with Nobara and LTSC.. I've already been using Nobara, but now I still need to convert my old windows drive to LTSC. I just haven't needed to, so I haven't done it yet......... But I think it's a little more advanced enough to where many people won't even try it; and they might try linux first, since it's so much easier; unless they absolutely need windows for something. Which most people do not; they just need a browser........... But again, it's crazy how things expand when they start trending. Once the news starts announcing that last day of Win10 in 2025, there will be a freenzy of people talking about what to do next and I think it will start trending. If Microsoft is smart, they will have a "savior" answer to throw out there at that time, and either extend win10 for free or something, rather than charge.. Or maybe just drop the requirement for secure boot?? Idk.. If not, SOMETHING is going to trend when it all finally ends, and the herd will move wherever t^ktok tells them to. I really think it's coming- there's no reason that it shouldn't. They aren't going to apple and MS is dropping the ball hard: they have to go somewhere-- or take the risk to stay on win10. IDK, we'll see. I think there will be a wave.. Linux has gotten too good and their videos are ubiquitous now. It's so wide spread on just about every distro and how to install them, etc. It's not so obscure anymore, like it always was. I mean, there is a "main stream" linux culture on youtube now; not just the old neck beards anymore.
@@calholli yeah true, though I think for most people the work of conversion is much easier than nuke and pave, the paranoia of forgetting logons or files or even having something to copy it to, it's just getting over the paranoia of the pirating part (or having to pay even more money to do it legit). imo MS should have planned for swapping win10 to be windows Legacy, keeping it permanently in development for security stuff but lock it down and start converting it to assembly for efficiency, re-introducing 16-bit support and DOS support so it extends back to even win95 ISA manufacturing machines, and not adding new hardware support until needed. like a longer long-term service branch or something. like window's slackware or debian, where they then have (in today's standings) windows 11 as their fedora or whatever where it's the mid-point between old and new, and windows 12 being bleeding-edge only new hardware arch testing branch.
but personally I feel like freeBSD is going to win over linux for the general windows users when push comes to shove for converting over, since it's closer to windows in the sense that it's a full OS with most of the bells and whistiles, and you don't have choice paralysis over what firewall to use when you eventually whittle down the 3487 distros to the 42 you might use but none of them for some reason has one. and if that's the case I see linuxheads kicking themself in the head having wasted that opportunity and start working on finally reducing fragmentation at its core, instead of creating more fragmentation by making a new solution to stop fragmentation that nobody uses. it's not like there's only really 3 major flavours of linux anyway, if you disregard slack/lfs/gentoo, just with a bunch of extra gubbins and a lick of paint and combed wiring that could easilly be diluted down to a nix-like script that applies on top of base arch/debian/fedora.
but yeah, time will tell
I just wish manufacturers and big box stores had a section for linux like they do with chromebooks
BLUE COMMENT!!
not going to happen, open source = leaking company secret = no profit and we all know MBA managers' view on this topic.
100%
That's it right there.
When you can walk into Best Buy and walk out with a Linux laptop or desktop, the year of Linux will have finally arrived. Will we ever see that? Dunno. I hope so.
@@JeanPierreWhiteI think an Ubuntu notebook aisle would work nicely - familiar enough to set things up out of the box, an exhaustive forum for troubleshooting, and no Microsoft bloatware slowing down the hardware.
This is why I donate to KDE often. It's the closest to the comfort zone of those folks who would switch. Regardless of what folks feel about this oddity or that one ... KDE would lessen the anxiety of switching.
I stopped evangelizing 15 years ago, if folks ask or if they find their way to Linux and need help then that's great. But I gave up being "that guy" a while ago. It honestly just turns off the plebs.
Cinnamon DE is way, way better than KDE and Cinnamon isn't perfect, at least Cinnamon works out of the box
@@averdadeeumaso4003 Cinnamon is a pretty dated DE in my opinion and everyone who tries and modernize it, just makes it look like a dollar store KDE Plasma or Gnome.
Cinnamon is the way to go for the new user, it feels very familiar. People are not looking for glamour, they want things to stay much the same and just work properly. KDE is still way to buggy.
@@pixels_per_minute KDE works like a Dollar store DE, its too buggy, to much junk nobody uses.
@@HOBBS-4 luckilly XFCE is projected to have wayland support public soon, at least according to their roadmap which says ~29th december
Windows has never forced people to upgrade based on their hardware not being sufficient for Windows 11. This is the first time where people will have to choose either to be without security updates, buy a whole brand new expensive machine to run Windows 11 or just switch to Linux. This is a lot different than all the other windows versions
its really easy to install win11 on unsupported hardware
@@utherlightbringer3868 it will still be unsupported even if it is installed
and on top you may not get important security updates
@@utherlightbringer3868 Its really easy to install Linux. But that doesn't mean most people will do either because surprisingly for them, its actually quite hard.
Do you seriously think most people care about unsupported hardware or software? Not at all! How many people disable updates on their phone, or not install them just because they don't like when it changes? For the normal non-tech savvy person, no one cares whether its supported or not. As long as it works & they don't have a reason to upgrade, they'll likely still continue to use it until it breaks or their actually given a reason to upgrade like stuff no longer working.
@@Zaptosis i have software like autohotkey that i need and cant be bothered to rewrite it in python cause script is too long and uses classes specifically written for autohotkey i used linux before like ubuntu 10.04 and 10.10 15 years ago its not that i cant use linux its just to much stuff that doesnt work.. i had fair share of linux brain farting with flash and alsa audio before pulse audio was out.. linux always has something that breaks and wont work for no apparent reason
Linux doesn't need saving. It's doing fine.
Agreed.
right? homie always has the most dire takes
Youre joking right?
Until you heard that they got activist into the COC board and pushing out actual code grunts that making progress. Linux is not fine.
There is too much infighting the last few years. This has to stop.
I think Cosmic is winning the desktop debate. I'm hard pressed to use anything else at the moment.
Honestly, the crux of linux is the userbase itself - just look at NixOS, Arch community, the toxicity would destroy any and all interest in linux by people outside
I agree not to mention the vocal minority of white supremacist and bigoted rhetoric when it comes to projects and their stakeholders
I agree.. that's why I don't use them and don't recommend them to anyone. The linux nerds can have their cult distros.. I'll be sending new people to Nobara, Bazzite, Garuda, Zorin, Kubuntu, and Mint.. etc. instead
When someone tries to play strong with the famous "I use Arch BTW", I inform them I was running Gentoo on my AthlonXP...
@compameqs I haven't seen any distro teams with the takes you described, care to elaborate?
@@compameqs
Lol another redditor repeating buzzwords. Go back
I don't think your going to see a huge jump to Linux With people struggling and having to have TPM 2.0 and the right CPU your going to see the biggest jump in new users. I can see Linux going up to 7% or even 8% in users from it's 4.4%. The changes Linux is making for new users like bluefin for new users and bazzite for gaming will get those 3 or 4 percent of people who have great hardware and is being hindered by TPM requirements by Microsoft.
Yep. Hardware requirements is one driver. Not enough on its own.
Maybe more important is the influence of steam deck in making gaming more practical on linux in general.
The TPM requirement is going away soon
@@eps-nx8zg Don't believe it. Lots of folks clutching at straws at the moment.
Yeah, I'm pretty sure 99% of the people around me have never even heard of this "Linux" thing.
My 2 younger sisters and brother in law have, but they don't like Linux and will never use it.
@@johanb.7869 ah, future freeBSD users I see
I installed my first Linux in 1996 and switched my main OS to Linux in 2002, still dual booting when needed though... I don't care about the year of the desktop. I work in IT and Linux is doing great in companies backoffices, and I'm happy with that
Honestly I couldn't care less if it will ever be the year of the Linux desktop.
But then the cake will never be eaten
My one friend was really interested to switching to linux like me from windows 10 and found the concept really interesting but unfortunately a large amount of his games are on xbox game pass and that has been a big thorn for him to switch to linux.
I don't use game pass only steam so for me it was a no brainer. I have been using linux for more then a year now and is really happy with it.
SteamOS devices needs to put into big boxed stores to convince people to switch over cause Ubuntu didn’t help despite having an option Lenovo devices and people have a stigma of ChromeOS not being good. Linux distros that want help gain market share needs that level of advertising and be pre-installed.
I mean you should 100% not be advocating for ChromeOS devices if you care about actual Linux. Otherwise we'll end up with a locked down propritary platform & the second class open source alternative. Look at Android & how Google is trying to re-establish trusted computing with their play protect verification service to check if you're running on a signed Android OS essentially blacklisting custom ROM's.
If you think ChromeOS is good, then that is the future of what will come to Linux if big tech companies get market dominance over the top few distros. This massive market fragmentation comes with many benefit as well as draw backs. It would be nice if we could collectively adopt superior technologies faster & decided on security improvements because right now Linux security is rather awful, but Android OS's like GrapheneOS show us the God tier security potential Linux could reach with todays tech & while remaining usable for end users.
in my country theres a laptop company that sells laptops that have linux mint preinstalled
@Zaptosis Chromium OS is what ChromeOS is based on, and that is open source. FydeOS is a privacy respecting version of ChromeOS, so I don't see a reason not to support it.
Win 10 won’t move the needle much - the issue is software compatibility.
Hence, projects like WINE and Proton are gradually moving the needle in tandem with Linux-based hardware like the Steamdeck.
I wish people like you wouldn't say "software compatibility" when they mean "I want to play my games on it" - sure, WINE supports many non-games applications, it has done for years, but Proton is specifically about playing Windows games on Linux.
There seems to be this "shame" by people who don't want to admit that it is just about games. Why is that?
@terrydaktyllus1320 It isn't for me. I dualboot and Windows usage is due to study requirements and also development, since most desktops are running Windows
@@terrydaktyllus1320 dont act like games no matter, the only true reason people are buying those powerful PCs and video cards are games! (unless you are not farming bitcoin or video editor or what ever else is your reason)
@@nikolaygrishin8209 "dont act like games no matter,"
I don't take instructions from strangers on the Internet.
" the only true reason people are buying those powerful PCs and video cards are games! (unless you are not farming bitcoin or video editor or what ever else is your reason)"
Sure, and they're all posing on social media counting their Ryzen cores and bragging about how many 4K screens they can drive simultaneously.
A bunch of self-entitled narcissists that I have zero association with.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 "I don't take instructions from strangers on the Internet."
You do as you please, it wont change the facts - Games among main reasons for hardware update if not the main one.
I do think the jump will be a bit bigger than with the last few versions of Windows. Everything from Vista to 10 ran on pretty much the same Pentium 4 baseline, so a lot of users probably grudgingly upgraded to a new version of Windows. And XP was so old that the marketshare was nowhere near the over 60% that 10 has right now. The Windows 10 to 11 upgrade actually requires new hardware to do officially, so that's a lot of people who have to switch.
Matt, you may be wrong on this one. I moved to MX Linux because of windows 11 and it's so call features like recall, Co-pilot, Microsoft Edge. Microsoft has also introduce a shitload of telemetry which has turned Window 11 into a personal data collection software and not an operating system. Time will tell what happens between Windows 11 and Linux.
Dunno dude, seems like more and more ppl are frustrated with windows, telemetry and AI shit. And even ppl like me (ms full stack architect) are moving to linux slowly. In my team three guys went to mac, two still using windows but one wants to experiment with linux after he saw my slick KDE and i went for linux already. I get that the most ppl will just buy hw supporting win 11, but now with gaming, steamdeck and louder privacy activists I believe linux marketshare will grow more and more. I also believe Microsoft is contributing to that.
Windows 10 is supported til October '25.
I'll use it for a year or 2 after that then switch
As a Windows 10 user myself, I really think there is a huge difference between the retirement of the other Windows versions to what happens in October 25 with Windows 10.
The difference lays in the system requirements of Windows 11 and as the result of it, the need to buy a new computer.
The timing of that move is so bad, it could not been worse.
The cost of living, rent, groceries, fuel for the car etc. are at a very high level.
We have insecurities all over the world, war's going on, your next president is frankly speaking a security risk on two legs.
In this environment it is highly unlikely that people storm into store's and buy new computer's, given the fact that most of the current machines are perfectly functional.
My case is a bit different, my PC is 14 years old, but I upgraded parts like RAM and the graphics card regularly over the years and the system does what I want it to do.
That's the reason I have switched to Linux Mint a couple of months ago.
I'm aware of the fact that the PC market is in decline, other devices like tablets, smartphones and watches have conquered that segment.
But many people like me like the opportunity to upgrade their system instead of buying new stuff constantly.
A factor to consider is that people have started thinking more about their environment, they care for sustainable solutions in their life.
To throw away a perfectly fine piece of hardware is very contradictory from that point of view.
Greetings from Germany
Have a Merry Christmas and a good start into 2025!
The IOT LTSC edition of win10 has support until 2032.
@zwabTheRealOne as far as I know, that Version is a downsized Win 10 with selected features and it's practically frozen.
No feature updates, just security once.
It costs round about 60 Euros.
It's an alternative, I have to look what features are included.
Most office machines aren't equipped to handle 3D applications, video editing and such.
But I'll look into it.
Thanks.
@@MarcoKrieger W10 will only be getting security updates soon enough anyways, before it stops unless you pay MS.
Main reason I know about the IOT LTSC thing is because its something suggested by the massgrave guys that make the activation scripts that activate windows for free.
Think they have a table somewhere with the version difference too.
For me personally, I retain a windows install that I just play games on.
Most of my games are playable under Linux with proton, but certain annoyances like VRR not working properly under my DE for applications that are not Wayland native mean I just do most of my gaming under windows.
100% agree, we're not gonna see some mass exodus to Linux over Win11 or even Win12. However, the forced migration to Win11 is what convinced my little brother to finally give Linux a try (and of course I installed the apps he'd need for him, showed him how to do updates, et cetera) and now he really likes it. He still gets frustrated occasionally bc there's Windows-isms he's stuck on, but ykno. No mass exodus but we definitely are getting some newbies ☺️🖤
Hi! I'm someone who switched from Win10 to Linux because of how much I hate Win11's AI features. I have a handful of artist friends who have been considering the switch too. Recall is such a hated feature that some people who hear about it refuse to use win11.
since your friends are artists, if they're beholden to adobe and can't switch, they can always go for windows 10 ltsc iot. hopefully by the time support ends for it in 2032, adobe will have changed tact, or a competent competitor will have appeared in the field
this time it may work because linux became actually usable for general public, especially for games, meanwhile who cares how much people use linux at these point? linux userbase has to be just big enough so you can't ignore it, and we actively approaching to the tipping point.
Its different this time around, people around the World are hurting for money. So Linux getting to 7-9% market share is very doable in the next year or two. Linux has gone from 1% to 4.5% in a short time, thats a fact.
As desktop applications gradually get replaced by in-browser cloud apps, the relevance of the operating system decreases. This could certainly lower the bar to entry for Linux based operating systems. However, if we've already lost the freedom to use, modify and share the [cloud] software, it's a poor consolation that people are using Linux.
I think the issue is people don't understanding that there is an option outside of Windows. I run around tech forums and such and see people complain about Windows all the time. I feel like you lose the right to freedom but you see everyone else doing it as well and if you don't run in tech circles and understand that you give up freedom and data to Windows and M$, you just feel like everyone else is doing it too so oh well. Been using Linux since 2000, I am happy we don't have an influx of simple users, I'm glad we are tech heads and understand what BASH is.
Linux has garbage marketing. I learned about Linux from my dad, who is a mac users. Steve Jobs did not mistake Linux for Unix, I would of been a freebsd user instead.
@@computernerd8157 Linux does not have marketing because its not a corporate project.
@@henry789 You are correct on that. Another place people learn about it is through unversity if you are in IT or computer science. By that time, a person is pretty much set in their computing ways.
I wasn't aware it needed "saving". I've been using Linux since 1996 and as my main OS since support for Windows 7 ended. I could care less if it has 4% or 94% desktop penetration, it wouldn't change how I use it today.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 thank you for putting my feelings into words. Linux has been doing fine for decades and ofc it could be improved but market share is not the be all and end all of succese
@@Kanbei11 It's good to know others think of it the same way as I do. Thanks for the response.
To be honest, I would like to see a little more support for Linux however I don't want it to be much bigger than it is. I like it this way. We exist, we can game and our computers are stable, we have many choices and we are relatively free from attack
Yes, we shouldn't try to get people who are normies. We should get people who care about privacy, security, open source ideals, freedom, all the good things linux stands for.
I got my mom on Linux because it was usable for her & she values privacy & doesn't want the government or big tech spying on her stuff even if its fairly mundane & she's loving ZorinOS. Though we should avoid trying to onboard people who will want big tech "features" & all these control measures put onto Linux. Only focus on helping those who are at least X% in ideological alignment with the ideals of open source.
Probably not, but it does mean a lot of bargain priced 2nd hand laptops that can run linux fine will be hitting the market next year.
There's plenty of cheap hardware, desktops and laptops, available now and for the past couple of years.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 ... yes but there will be more, hence cheaper stuff. I feel that was pretty self explanatory.
@@centy64 What you "feel" is irrelevant to me. I simply responded to the words you wrote. If that's an issue for you then don't write them in the first place.
This is a public discussion forum, expect "the public" to reply to you sometimes.
(God help us all if this is how the modern education system teaches debating skills!)
@@terrydaktyllus1320 It was a polite way of calling you thick mate but I'm done with that now.
@@terrydaktyllus1320 I love how it's always the least mentally equipped people who think they are the smartest.
The good news is that Linux doesn't depend on market share, since for the most part, nothing's for sale. And as more and more apps are developed to do the job that Adobe, et al. try to keep to themselves, the less we need large numbers. Linux is a fine case of the door being open to anyone who wants in without trying to force anyone to enter.
Personally, my _plan_ is to switch to Linux for my next build. I have looked at my use-case I should just be able to use it. I bought a steam deck recently and it has shown me that, yeah, largely it'll work for most of what I want it. But my PC is currently working, and I haven't found the cash to allocate to the next build, so I haven't yet.
And honestly? I am changing for an ideological reason. But Windows is just comfortable at this point, hence why I am dragging my feet into doing the switch. I realize that me claiming that I am not switching due to having to deal with all my data and "wanting to do it right" is, in a way, procrastinating it. I know I will run into an edge case or five (different monitors, HDR, multiple drives, peripherals like steering wheels, a really old printer) and I know I will need months before I am in a similar place as I am with Windows currently.
So, largely, I agree. I don't think the Linux community has the infrastructure to deal with people who don't have someone to hand hold them (IT departments could be the ones making this change, but that's a can of worms), and if they are going to pay... Well, it becomes hard to justify paying someone who doesn't have the brand presence of Microsoft.
You don't need a next build, what you need is an SSD to dual boot in your existing Computer. You can put more than one drive in there. ..Any more excuses LOL
Linux already won the desktop, for me. I've used Linux on my desktop for around decade now. And it's only gotten better, and it has changed a lot, and gotten very good, and the last couple of years there's been a lot of new and interesting projects which are making supporting desktop Linux ever more automated and easier. Containerization and immutability with the automation tools built-in, the potential for making traditional packaging obsolete, or at least only relevant for IT and advanced support people, then an audience of users already familiar with A/B automated update systems (via Android and other mobile solutions) means that the capability for support has never been greater. And 5 millions is an absurdly low number, we forget the massive number of computers being sold and used everyday in the world. 4% of desktop use is a deceptively low percentage number, but it already implies at least 100 million desktop devices as a very low and pessimist estimate. Earning 5 million more desktop users worldwide would be absolutely nothing, barely a tiny blip in terms of support demand compared to what is already being done. We tend to forget that there are more computers than people in the world, and we make millions of them every month.
For me, the year of Linux on the desktop has been every year, for the last 10 years.
I don't see any upside if loads of windows people decided to switch to linux. It's not like linux distros has marketing goals to hit in order to get funded, so who cares if people join or not? A big influx of ex windows users would just flood the forums with people complaining that linux does things differently than windows and the need to guide those people would probably suck the fun out of linux community forums.
Linux community forums are fun right now? Lol
App support & no more anti-cheat blocking Linux.
I don't think we'll see a big growth spurt in conversions. However, I think we might see a huge increase of higher spec used computers on the market as the normies get told they need a new computer to go to windows 11.
I have no idea the numbers but won't there be a lot of people with expensive systems (they don't want to part with) that don't have TPM 2?
If they have expensive systems, they probably know enough to bypass that. My sure, some. I didn't say nobody would come to Linux because of Win10, just not the masses
Microsoft knows that, so they’re relaxing the requirements.
No, we won't be seeing a landslide. Those who actually _do_ switch to full-time Linux after another Windows dies are generally fence-sitters like I myself used to be: folks who have been slowly gravitating towards Linux, been dual booting for a while to use a few Windows-only apps while getting more comfortable with Linux, finally deciding that that last Windows upgrade, which might actually have broken those Windows-only apps, just ain't worth the pain anymore.
In my case, I got fed up when the Windows installation I was using almost exclusively for The Sims 2 decided I needed to "upgrade" to Win10, which screwed up my dual-boot so badly I had to wipe my hard drive.
Yeah, I haven't been trying to get people to switch or try linux to get away from windows. The couple times I've suggested it was more so to give some hardware someone asked me about saving a second shot before getting dumped in the e-waste bin.
I'm glad to be one of those making the transition now. Granted, I already had some free software politics and no love for Windows, but I've always been pretty sloppy and inert about my own systems and the end of support was the push I needed to finally start learning. It came at the right time to become an instant hyperfixation, but there's so much new information to synthesize from disparate sources, I can see how it could be a massive pain in the ass if I were rushed and had to treat it as just another annoying high-stakes chore.
I think it makes sense to assume
that the software monopolies are not about to come crashing down, but I enjoy thinking about the prospect of hard-to-predict transformative media trends. It brings to mind how, of all things, the "Uganda Knuckles" meme is, I believe, widely accepted as a historical landmark in the history of VRChat that directly resulted in a ton of people joining that community long-term. Maybe at some point the stars will align and GNU/Linux will be featured in something not directly aimed at a tech discourse audience and that will spark new interest. Maybe really slick footage of window managers will become a TikTok trend haha. You never know I suppose.
Whatever happens I'm sure a lot of devs and organizational leadership are always working hard to improve the beginner experience, which is good because at the end of the day it's community and accessibility that are going to determine whether new enthusiasts come and how long they stay. And I want normies to come for their own sake! It's the prosocial, "intellectual mutual aid" aspects of free software culture that might really be the thing that works, imho.
Been enjoying your channel, thanks for your work!
2:18 I think the thing actually is, while moving from one windows version to another is already a change it is less of a change then moving to Linux instead. Which I think held ppl up and they just went with the "less intrusive" way
Ive been a linux guy since 2006, i started with Ubuntu LTS 6.06 (Dapper Drake), learned the UI, learned how to use the terminal, and even started getting into tinkering with code and making small contributions
It actually changed my career path with all of the skills i learned.
I know it sounds cliche, but linux literally changed my life.
What's to understand about Linux Mint? When I switched to it six years ago, I had it all figured out in about 20 minutes.
Linux growth isn't really a technical problem for Linux devs to solve. They only think it is because Linux devs like to solve problems with technical skills. I'll put it out there: Linux *as an operating system* is easily "ready" and good enough. The hurdle is application support: Adobe suite, MS Office, Anticheat, etc The barrier is a commercial/political one - to persuade the major software powers to support Linux.
Actually, PC sellers, just need to start selling computers with Linux... It's not complicated, that is literally all that needs to happen for the entire PC-scene to change completely.
Atm they only sell computers with windows on it, not a single PC has Linux on it... of course there are some sellers that sell only Linux machines, and no Windows machines, which also doesn't help... They need to sell BOTH, not just one or the other. That way, people who primarily buy windows machines, get exposes to Linux machines, and might get curious about them enough to try them, etc... That's the point, a mixed market, makes people more aware of their choices, and opens their minds up to trying new things.
And once Linux gets some traction, then at some point we'll see a huge jump to Linux, and then some manner of equilibrium forming between the two operating systems.
because software isn't actually a problem, wine and proton handle the translation layers... So aside from a few rare exceptions, 90% of all programs on windows, work just fine on Linux, without corporations having to do anything in particular.
So no, they just need to start selling Linux PC's together with Windows PC's, in local sellers... That is it. : /
I'm eye rolling, because I've been installing linux on peoples systems for a good two weeks now. The support bubble isn't as difficult as one might think. I rustdesk in on them, talk them through what needs to be done, show them octopi and go my merry way. Never knew of "the myth". I know people are who are just fedup with Windows, and 90% of what they do at home, they can do on linux without much hassle.
I'm a Linux enthusiast and would love for Linux to have a lot more 'market share' than it does, but I don't think Linux should seek to become another MacOS or Windows. It's enough for Linux to just be Linux and present a good alternative to people who are sick of Microsoft and Apple's BS.
One of the things that keeps me from going full Linux (I use it for network stuff but not desktop) is the lack of autohotkey (the Linux alternatives are terrible atm) and a proper fancy zones alternative that allows you to have a window snap to overlap two zones at once by dropping it in the middle and auto activate without shift like fancy zones does (which is pretty much essential if you have a vertical monitor and multi-task
If they haven't switched to linux yet, they'll never will. I know I'm a happy linux user for years.
Switched to Linux this year, never touched Linux before now, lul.
been using it for a few months now though... Funny thing is, i've forgotten i'm on Linux, several times, simply because all my needs are met with Linux. xD
I can play all the games i want to play just fine, and internet browser works the same way they do on windows so... no problem! :)
@MyouKyuubi I'm glad you are trying linux. It can be challenging for a while for beginners, but the longer you stick with it, the easier it gets. :)
@@DV-ml4fm I'm not "trying" Linux, i switched, completely, i'm not dual-booting or anything, i straight up rawdogged it... I'm not using windows ever again. :3
@MyouKyuubi My apologies. Anyway, that is great that you have gone all in on linux. Windows is practically a data mining OS today rather than an operating system.
@@DV-ml4fm yup
windows 10 is going to hit eol, that means a bunch of regular people will spontaneously run through the entire linux curriculum, suddenly be masters of the terminal and vim, and switch all their software to foss!
While I don't think that it's going to be the big "year of the linux desktop" because of a Windows version expiring, there still is going to be some influence. I only ever went from Win 7 to 10 when Win 7 went out of service, and went from Win 10 to Linux in March this year because there's no way in hell I'll have Win 11 on a personal computer. We've seen an increase from under 3.0% to 4.1-4.5% since Jan 2023 which is a 30-50% increase and that's huge.
When win 10 kicks the bucket in October 2025, I predict we might see another jump to somewhere between 5-6% usage, maybe 7% if I'm optimistic. This isn't going to be the end of Windows since it has so many other things going for it (software compatibility, default OS etc), but it's definitely going to be a nice little jump.
"Necessity is the mother of invention" --- When win10 finally closes the doors, there will be a buzz of people talking about linux all over the internet.. and many people are going to jump ship by impulse at the last minute, because they don't have a choice. I won't be surprised if we double the userbase by 2026.
Well Linux is not doing a great Job. People should come to Linux for its own merits but instead people come because they are angry. As many people that come to Linux due to emotion a vast majority return to Windows because Linux fails to support the software they need. Steam is doing a decent job for certain gammers but we cant forget about creative people who make Photos ans Music for a living. We need to improve our software.
They said the same about windows 10
@@computernerd8157 They have Gimp and DaVinci Resolve... and look, I get it. It would be much more likely if Adobe premiere could carry over... They got it to work for Apple/iMac.. Which is basically linux. So there's no reason why it can't be built to work on Linux. Personally I would just stop supporting a company that has you cornered like that.. but that's just me.
@@Kanbei11 They gave windows 10 away for free and there were no hardware restrictions.. it's completely different now.
2 types of people that use windows:
-Those who could install windows themselves.
-Those who did not install (and can't) it yet use it as their computer was bought.
The first one could install Linux but does not for his own reasons. There is no (few) thing you can do for them.
The second ones ? They MAY use Linux, but as for Windows, you must install and set it up for those people. They want the web, they want videos, music... Just give them something that will not break no matter the update (Debian FTW). But don't expect them to install and do the thing they did not for windows.
Those are users only, but they still may be Linux users, if you would do the tech part for them.
Group 2 should stay on Windows or get a mac. Their is no reason for them to get on Linux unless they are compelled to Linux due to a last drawn being drawn by the company that their system is under. I do not preach come to Linux, I will only promote it based on the users needs.
@computernerd8157 And group 2 has precisely basic needs, they don't need specific softwares that has no replacement under linux. They only need firefox, vlc, thunderbird.
So yes, they would appreciate Linux, though maybe not Arch Linux.
Group 2 is your average person. They buy the $500 and below laptops from Walmart/best buy. They don't care about specs, they just want something to basically web browse. Honestly most of these people don't even know they're running windows, or that alternative operating systems exist. They could easily use Linux and never even know.
@@bobmauranne6829 Depends on the persons, future interest. People change and their needs evolve as well. Linux needs to become better or I am not going to recommend it. The person in group 2 might develope a taste for games, music creation, art or get a job that requires Microsoft compatible software. Unless you have a passion for Linux, their really is no point to recommend it until we make it better. Linux can do music but it sucks at it. Artist have some option but are they the best options? Programmers love to program but will Linux pay the bills? People come to Linux and most people leave Linux because we are not taking notes and improving it enough. If I was in group 2, I would not use Linux because what can Linux do that Windows cant? I get more disadvantages for using Linux. If I really hated Microsoft. I would get a Mac mini and call it a day. I can run all Linux Software in a Mac and Run all mainstream stuff. I have better software for Music support and the computer system evolves as my interest do. Even staying in Windows is a better option for most people because of work. I can use my phone to just browse the web. I dont need a full blown desktop to do you basic computing task.
@@computernerd8157 "what can Linux do that Windows can't ?"
Run fast, smoothly (i insist on this word) for basic tasks on a low spec laptop for someone that don't give a f*** about programing (in category 2 ? Think again...)
I have a good computer,4years and don't to trash it... running mint 22
There are two big obstacles to using Linux: financial software (basically the electronic checkbook) like Quicken, and tax software for e-filing. The only alternative to Windows is Mac.
There are free versions of the above, but the checkbook software cannot communicate with the bank to download transactions, and the tax software only allows printing the return and mailing it in, not e-filing.
If Quicken or one of its competitors produced a full version that runs on Linux (preferably Mint or Ubuntu), updates itself automatically, and downloads from financial institutions, I would be able to switch to Linux by the Windows 10 transition date of 10/25/25.
If H&R Block or one of its competitors would build a USA and state tax package for tax year 2025 that would run on Linux, update itself and the tax tables online, and e-file normal returns to the IRS and state revenue departments, I would be able to use it to file my taxes in 2026 for the 2025 tax year on Linux.
Also, I would need full function printer drivers (my printer is an all-in-one that also scans and faxes, though I don’t use the fax function since I don’t have a landline). And the printer makers don’t seem interested in writing Linux drivers either.
So I will most likely be forced to go from Windows 10 to Mac, probably using an iMac Mini with separate monitor, and forego the wonders of Linux, unless I can afford an additional “tinkering” computer to experiment with Linux.
Holy moly, every time I hear about USs' way of doing taxes I'm baffled at how complicated and user hostile it is. You guys are crazy!
@ Unfortunately I’m too old and too retired and too poor to move to another country.
@@allanrichardson1468 Yeah, can't condemn you, it's not like a normal individual can change anything or like there's a choice in the matter.
Changing countries just for this feels a bit much lol. All countries have plenty of problems. Just different ones.
@@Winnetou17 Same. I really can't fathom how this thing can be set up in such a hostile way. And they expect you to pay for Quicken on top of it?!?!? In Brazil you can fill your taxes on the web or using a dedicated client app written in Java that is fully multiplatform (even runs in FreeBSD!) and that is distributed for free by the the Brazilian equivalent of the IRS itself. And it has been that way since, i dunno, 2005 or something.
There are tax Apps you can use just online, you don't need the fken CD LOL
Valve is cooking something. I can feel it.
Yey hail centralized cloud company to save us! /s, not.
@@averdadeeumaso4003 Imagine Linux without Proton. Cope and Seethe. I know it's a large pill to swallow but good news! It's a suppository! Bet you run SystemD too haha
Thanks for your take on things Matt. I've never seen your channel before, and I have a little feedback: starting out by saying "I don't actually know" does not inspire confidence ... why not take the time to find out? At least give us the impression that you know what you're talking about =)
It would have to be the job of a specific distro, say, Ubuntu or Linux Mint or PopOS. They would have to contact big corporations like Adobe, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. to work directly with them. They'd also have to work with OC manufacturers like HP, Dell, Lenovo, ASUS etc. to preinstall their distro. They'd also have to spend a ton of money into marketing, and hope it pays off. It's not going to be easy for any company to enter a market where there will be already 2 working options for most people: Windows 11 and macOS. Mint, Canonical and System76 aren't in that market. Sure, System76 makes PCs, but they're much more niche and most Mac and PC users don't know about their hardware, even if they've heard about their OS.
Most people don't want to "learn computers" they just want to use software without any hassle.
I remember how annoyed many where when they had to choose between 32 bit and 64 bit and weren't sure which one they should click on.
Even then, the 32 bit version would always work.
Windows having a severe security/privacy issue that's in the news for weeks and Elon Musk tweeting about it. Something like that is how change happens. Not by users just suddenly deciding getting out of their comfort zone.
Look around dude, tell me people give a shit about their privacy lmao
@@bologna3048 It caused a spike in Linux users in Norway from 18% to 29%, for one month, then it went back down to 18%, lol.
On the upside, Norway probably has the highest percentage of Linux users, in the world. : )
We need to improve linux than having people use the same tired excuse of "We need preinstalls" of which have existed way before Ubuntu existed.
Linux community grown up, from less than 1% to 4% this year. Its okay for now, lets see in future.
Recently went from Win11 to Linux Mint (Wilma), it's day and night when it comes to performance and very easy to use, it honestly feels like windows without blotware, that's how intuitive it is.
With steam adding support to the Linux environment and community tools mimicking and even surpassing official apps I can honestly envision a future in which Linux is not relegated as "an OS for nerds" and becomes sort of streamlined.
All it needs is for PC manufacturers to not add windows as a pre installed OS and people might adopt easy to use and set up Linux distros as their default option.
Or just sell PC's with Linux preinstalled alongside windows PC's for that matter.
For what it's worth, I think SteamOS is going to be the big Linux moment. My experience with the Steam Deck prompted me to make my new PC a linux PC. The Steam Deck was fantastic! Not just for being small and portable and playing games -- but you stuck it in the dock, connected it to a monitor, added a keyboard and mouse, put it into desktop mode and you used it as a PC. KDE Plasma was also a very slick interface to use. Now I have a Linux gaming machine: steam handles all my games, most of my software is now open-source and Linux-based anyway, and I've gotten the one or two Windows-only programs I still needed going through compatibility software.
I was a little sick of Windows, I will admit. Updates not installing properly. Random processes spiking my CPU and revving the fans every two minutes - one update would fix it, next update would set if off again. And having to contact Microsoft and wait for official support -- when you can just ask a Linux forum and someone might even hammer you out a script which will fix it for you.
The big stumbling block for Linux is the idea you need to know code in order to use it -- by that I mean the amount of stuff I've had to do in the terminal since I started using it. Things were just a lot simpler in Windows, especially installing and uninstalling software. My mum can use her Windows laptop no problem but there would be a barrier if I thought of setting her up with Linux.
All I can speak of is my own experience, but my jump into Linux coincided with my main Windows desktop not being officially supported for an upgrade to Windows 11 (I know it's easy enough to get around this), which spurred my interest in giving Linux another shot, and here I am 6 months later addicted to learning and distro hopping and absorbing all I can. Linux is my main now and I'll only ever have a small Windows partition or VM. Windows 10 worked completely fine for me (with usual Microsoft annoyances obviously), but when Microsoft said I would have to get 11 (and potentially a new PC) I was annoyed enough to jump into Linux.
Oh Matt, you were talking about a possible massive influx of new users, and how that would play.
I guess you were probably not on the old Usenet newsgroups in late 1993. It became know as "The September That Never Ended", because every September a new bunch of college kids would get access and annoy everyone until they calmed down. Then AOL stuck CDs on every magazine cover which allowed ANYONE to get online, and many many of them were not about to learn the rules of the locals!
That September never did end :)
i agree with matt on this, if we get 5mil users influx it would be overwhelming and just too much on us users to support etc.
In a sense, Windows 11 has gotten my brother to let me help him give Linux a spin.
The factory installation of his laptop now fails to update itself, making it a long-term security hazard.
And I already converted him to LibreOffice by pre-installing it for him and him having his school Office license expiring at an inopportune time.
His main concern is being able to play his games though, which I already checked with ProtonDB and know for sure will work out for him.
What I am concerned about is his PC being an Nvidia duel GPU laptop, so I pray to the penguin gods that this will work out.
My father, who I already converted, did mention that his laptop just worked after I installed Linux on it, this was an old one we got without a drive.
Not really an example of what you are talking about here, since I heavily push for giving Linux a try when it makes sense.
But successful conversions due to Windows failing nonetheless, either from the OS being too heavy for the hardware or failing to update itself.
I am from India and Linux is becoming popular here especially because it's due to the hang of windows in old system and when we install Linux it becomes more useful and speedy in performance. This is so great because it saves money and reduces e-waste . Normally there was a time when windows pirated version was popular even in government offices of our country but they develop a Linux based version boss and it is so popular in government offices . Linux is stored in our schools but due to the pre installed strategy of Microsoft windows is still used by everyone. I personally switched windows to Linux after using it for nearly 15 years. Firstly I struggled a lot to learn the Linux . What's it is so easy to use it now and the main factor I liked that Linux consumes less power compared to windows.
I did try to reinstall win11 yesterday. But once again I discovered that ms and their landholding seriously slows down my workflow. Powershell is ok prefer bash. Been using linux for 5+ yrs. Awesome video. The future of Linux will be interesting.
I feel your missing a very important thing this time. the fact that many people after the pandemic cannot afford to buy a brand new PC. I honestly feel there will be a lot of people switching to Linux this time due to the fact they financially cannot move to windows 11. with all the other windows you mention, it did not require purchasing a new PC. THIS time I seriously think a lot will make the switch, maybe not on the scale your referring to, but I do think it will happen.
People can barely pay their rent, bills, buy food. I don't think buying a PC is in the cards for many people.
@@HOBBS-4 exactly, and this reason is why I think while it may not be huge like he's talking about people claiming in the past, imo there will definitely be quite a few people making the switch only due to financial reasons.
I think the rate of new users would increase, though. I'm a year in Linux and nowhere near knowing the kernel or anything, I just play games and Design, vector apps, 3D, drawing... it all works! Some stuff came with difficulty (Affinity Designer), but recently it has come to working condition for everything a regular gamer needs. Within my circles or in public conciousness it Now, this year, is a known name. It'll grow quicker, but it won't be a boom. The boom could hurt anyway.
I think you're absolutely right but also Windows 11 pushed me to give Linux another shot on my personal computers.
I have a question about switching to Linux while the rest of my team is on Windows 11 - I know Linux can send and receive emails to/from Win11. But there are several messenger apps in Windows. Can Linux interface with those messenger apps?
i think if general windows users are going to move to anything, it'd be freeBSD as it's a complete OS from the get-go, as opposed to linux which you have to do some hunting to find a distro that is fully-featured out of the box which introduces you to choice paralysis, outdated advice, flame wars, etc.. but then you have to compile everything yourself from source on freeBSD so they might not choose it and instead just eventually get told "hey windows 10 LTSC IoT is supported until 2032 lol just change your reg key to this generic key, reboot, and run this activation script" and not have to give a toss for 7 more years
You are right... I tried, I even turned my old W10 into an LMDE, but it is very hard to deal with issues like PDFs... I ended up buying a new to me PC to be able to have W11...
The year of the Linux is coming true in India! Have you ever see the last 2 years of Linux' marketshare there? Linux is so way ahead from macOS and growing month after month! It's a amazing marketshare in a country with 1.5 BILLION people/consumers!
This is way: more consumers is equal a more power over desktop market that couldn't be ignored by major techs as Adobe, Microsoft, etc... its a cascade effetc, influencing more and more companies to launch theirs forthcoming softwares versions to Linux!
India makes up 12% of all Linux users and will grow by a lot in the next year. 32 bit is no longer supported in Windows 11 and Core Duo's, Core 2 CPUs are all blocked from Windows 11. India having the cheapest people in the World leads in these low spec CPUs.
I don’t think Linux needs to be saved.
It’s doing pretty ok as it is.
If you want Linux to grow on the desktop. Install it on your parents PC. Great learning experience and surprisingly stable if you choose the right distro.
The Windows 10 going out of service will be a bigger deal this go around simply because of the hardware requirements. Those who don't want to spend money on a new laptop will look for alternatives.
I believe more than usual will come over to Linux. Not a flood, but more for sure.
All my Windows 10 boxes will end up with Linux on them. This is the first time I've installed linux onto a machine long term, I've always used live versions to recover data off bad HDD's etc.
I "almost" bought a Framework laptop to install Linux onto. Maybe sometime in 2025 when I've lived with Linux long enough to be confident I can do everything I need to without compromises. Only found one gotcha so far, have to resort to ChromeOS.
Or can't spend the money. The up coming tariffs, if they do happen would add 20 or 30% to the cost of a new rig and folks have other bills.
@@bitterseeds Yep. Regardless if there are tariffs or not, there will be a surge of people buying win 11 computers which will drive prices up the closer we get to October. Recycling your old computer may make the most sense.
When windows 7 stoped supporting literally everything encluding steam i switched to win10 also i hated the instability and the large updates but i lived
Then i saw the same thing happening with win 10 and converted to fedora then to mint as a precaution. And i love it now i duel boot mint and tiny10.
SteamOS is the closest start. A commercial centralised standard. Windows is simply more feature rich then Linux, but apps are offering more and more Linux versions.
If all the games coming out run fine on SteamOS then people who play games will happily consider SteamOS.
Windows 7 end of life. What was stopping people from leaving Windows and joing Linux? Same thing with Windows 8. Now there's telemetry, privacy concerns, and encrapification of software. Windows will continue to get worse. I don't believe everyone will jump ship and join Linux, willy nilly. It'll be business as usual. Just the slow increase. Why should we rely on one software, let alone run one OS for everything. Gimp is not the photoshop alternative. It's an alternative. Krita, photopea, inkscape, and sure there's plenty more. I don't trust Microsoft. They will screw everything up.
It will never be a 5% to 90%.
It will be 2%, 4%, 6%, 10% ect until it meets a cap where it'll need commercial acceptance and support to grow more.
I just want Linux to be a globally viable 3rd OS family, I want to see it by default in budget mainstream laptops in Walmart or Amazon
Good points. I had been toying with Linux on dual-boot configurations since tech-vlog Mobuzz mentioned Ubuntu phones (which ultimately failed) and the cute blonde girl got my curiosity up with her mock affection for Ubuntu.
After years of watching desktop Linux get better, including a stint of homelessness in whick the best I could come up with was a Linux laptop or two, it still didn't win me over. I had a couple hundred dollars worth of DRMed iTunes media (which Apple was already finding ways to effectively erode) and the good negative scanner for a temporary hobby of film photography which only worked on Mac and Windows.
It took Windows 10 showing egregious malevolence to outweigh just those two things for me. Now, you couldn't coerce me to go back to Windows. And by that point, I'd long since sworn off Mac as a world of overpriced and often-crappy proprietary hardware.
I'm with you Matt! I gave up on that delusion of everyone moving to Linux a long time ago!
I personally hope that the people using Windows will continue using Windows. Think about it, if Linux grabbed a large part of desktop computing, you would suddenly have a lot of corporate interest, and big companies will be trying to figure out how to make money off of it, and that's never a good thing. Add to that, Linux would be a much larger target for the people that write viruses and malware. I'd much rather be a part of a smaller, niche community.
Windows 10 support being dropped won't make people flood to Linux, but if Microsoft decides to throw up a popup in October 2025 asking them to pay the $30 to get one more year of support... that might piss some people off badly enough that they start looking into alternatives.
I wish Steam Games any game would need to run on Linux, not just Windows 8 to 11
5M New Windows users moves into Linux in the same time I will fear hackers, ransomware and what not like nvr before hahaha. All eyes on Linux lol.
Linux users have less to fear from hackers, than windows users though? Linux is way more secure than windows, on a fundamental level. For one, nothing happens on a Linux computer, unless the super user gives explicit permission first, so... Hackers have a really hard time even OBTAINING the information they need, to take over a Linux system, they need to go through really round-about and long-winded methods to break into someone's system.
Hi, I'm the Windows user who neither can (due to arbitrary limitations) nor wants to upgrade to Windows 11.
I've been using Debian 12 + GNOME full time for the last three weeks or so.
Perhaps Linux would not be so attractive if it became more mainstream and ceded to commercial pressures. The allure of Linux for many people is that is different and is not contolled by large corporations seeking to maximize profits.
Does adding more users from Windows over to Linux affect the way I use Linux? No. Why should I care about people switching to Linux?
can’t believe it, but the thing that is stopping me from using Linux for real work is software availability even though for my actual work Linux is better. I simply require Teams, MS 365 for the cruff on top of real work.
At the moment TPM 2.0 Is Not Required for Windows 11 anymore, you can upgrade windows 10 now.