Wouldn't it be great if it was baked into the CFP to change that? Let's say there was a rule that to be eligible to play in the playoffs, You needed to play 10 power 4 teams and no more than 1 FCS team during the regular season?
As a Notre Dame fan, you have won me over, subscribed. Josh having Geralt on his shelf also won me over, can't fault anyone for taking Duke after how much ND left on the field during OSU game, especially since this will be a huge home game for Duke
The hardest part about picking this game is trying to guess ND’s mental state. After they lost to OSU last year they went and lost to Marshall at home. Have to assume they’re better at compartmentalizing but this year was a much more heartbreaking loss. Too much of a wild card.
what i was thinking i think marcus freeman is a great coach he had 1 mistake that cost the game i think the whole team should know playoffs are still very possible if they go out and play for blood
@@grapevibez8893playoffs might be out the picture if these things happen fsu goes undefeated, Texas or Oklahoma go undefeated . Someone from pac12 goes undefeated or ends as a one loss conference champ. Sec undefeated or one loss. Big ten undefeated or one loss will get in over Norte dame. That’s why it hurts not being in a conference
This video literally helped me find the words and statistics to why I picked Duke to win. I've been struggling to back myself up when talking to other people, and now I'm just gonna send them this video.
Finally got onto your cite. It’s really awesome! I would love a discussion on the Ole Miss LSU game with that model prediction but I know we’re outside your filming window.
There's a similar issue with Auburn-Georgia where it has it super-close. The model is really high on Ole Miss, weirdly high on Auburn, and really doesn't like LSU (or FSU).
I have a theory about the polls, especially the coaches poll. The people doing the voting are busy folks with real jobs who don't really have time to study all the film do decide if Washington is better than Oregon or vice versa. If I were a head coach worried about winning my next game, I'd probably tell my secretary to fill out my ballot and just try to make it reasonable.
I've always heard that the Coaches Poll is actually filled out by the Sports Information Directors (SIDs). Most coaches have zero knowledge about teams they aren't going to play.
I'm sure that's true with the coaches poll. I also remember from past years AP voters filling out their ballots before all of the West Coast games were over, and every once in a while a highly ranked Pac-12 would be upset but wouldn't drop as much as they should because voters penciled them in as the winners.
“Ranked wins” should only be calculated at the end of the season based on where everyone ends up. You didn’t beat the #5 team if they end the season with 4 losses and unranked.
@@greenman5255 So you think making jokes about suicide is just good fun? Also, asking a question implies nothing about my mental state. I assume you are either very young or extremely sheltered. Either way, I hope you never have to understand for yourself why nothing about suicide is funny. Just really, really immature and inane.
Just coming back after Notre Dame won to say you guys were right, ND looked exhausted in the 2nd half after that OSU loss last week, they should have lost. Glad they won, but your predictions were pretty spot on
The emotional let down spot would matter more if they had won, but the loss is a massive motivator for a team that is a top 5 team in the nation, Notre Dame by 10-14
@@danzo626 That was a completely different team maturity wise, most of the players on this team were on the team last year and remember that mistake. Only fools bet on lightning striking twice, I said what I said Notre Dame by 10-14.
I have Duke and Utah back to back. I was trying to figure out where to put Duke and i almost had them a top 10 team over FSU. In the end i chickened out and went with the AP.
@@jonwalter6317 does that include fumble return yards and the extra possession that results? Nope. On a per play basis Clemson was outplayed and when you account for explosive plays that is the difference. Football scoring in the modern game is about big plays and explosive plays. Not 5 yards at a time.
@@nole74 Never said it wasn't, just making a comment about the original post. You've obviously stumbled on something you think is important and need to grind that ax. Have fun with it.
Love the model. Maybe you could create a variant that only shows stats vs Power 5 teams? This way mid to late season we would have a different numbers perspective to consider. Especially considering a team like Oklahoma who plays 3 cupcakes compared to West Virginia who plays 1 cupcake
Bama going out of its way to schedule what could be a top 4 team in Texas but now is ranked behind washington etc, explain that. Yall are so adverse to applying your logic that you use here to Bama last year and TCU getting blown out proves that you should be. Its still an issue w rankings.
One thing about the model is I don't think it takes teams run% vs pass% selection into account? It has air force overperforming because they are currently averaging 18 yards per attempt in the pass game
It's fully factored-in. The trick with Air Force is that they beat San Jose State by as much as USC did and are undefeated. Their performances are kind of all over the place so the model is really having issues with them. In particular, they really key off the opposing run defenses, and some teams (e.g., Georgia) have weird run defense profiles because their opponents were so bad it's hard to look good.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Ok I was thinking that but wasn't entirely sure because in my eyes the scores for air force seemed fairly high. Thanks for clarifying.
This game will show if nd can still have a chance to make the playoff. If they look sloppy (even with a win) might shut them out. If they come out and perform, they are a contender
1. Duke is REALLY good, definitely under rated 2. I can see what you're saying about ND not dropping, but only because they really had that game won, and found a stupid way to lose. 3. There are 6 one loss conference teams ranked in the top 25.... 5 of those are from the SEC, and the SEC lost soundly to all the other conferences this year... make it make sense smh 4. Pre-season polls SHOULD NOT EXIST. They are based on nothing, and they affect the entire season. We should not rank teams until after week 1 games.
I currently have Notre Dame in ‘pick em’ on your model. Ignoring data again! 😂 I think ND wins 21-17. Also, again, your model (and Dashboard) rocks! P.S. On an iPad I did lose the ranking a few times and had to start over, so I recommend hitting ‘submit’ a few times so you don’t lose your list in the middle of picking it. Of course, it could just be my fat fingers…
The playoff committee has a better, weighted formula that lowers the impact of media rankings to some degree, right? I believe we saw that when Tennessee had a couple of days atop the Playoff rankings last season.
I’d lean ND here if not for just playing OSU. From all accounts from the field on Saturday, it was a very physical game with many players limping home. Mentally, ND should be fine. But physically, I just don’t know how they will bounce back.
Im actually starting to like the new clock rules. I think a shorter game with fewer possessions favors the stronger team not the most conditioned team. Meaning the stronger/better team is not going to lose because the weaker/inferior team simply hung around until the other team got tired. Fewer possessions mean a higher percentage of possessions where the teams are ar full strength and not affected by fatigue meaning it's more good on good.
@@HiiipowerHabits no, i'm talking about matchup games, Shorter games means neither team is so tired at the end of it that it's affecting the play on the field, which means the team that is the better team, skill-wise and talent-wise is favored. Only in longer games would fatigue override a skill/talent advantage.
@@HiiipowerHabits think about those freak defensive linemen who can give 90-100% for 7-8 possessions, but on the 9-15th possession can only give 75% or worse, it's those 9-15th possessions where the less talented team busts a long TD run or whatever where the better team that has flukey offensive struggle game gets beat by 3 points instead of winning.
If ND wins out, they will climb again. If it then gets left out of the playoff it's not because they played OSU, but because they DID NOT join a conference and thus don't play a championship game. Which is as it should be, because that is just as much their choice as the ooc scheduling of others.
Duke will win big. ND is definitely more banged up and will still have that loss in the back of their mind. Duke wins 31-17 in a game that ND is never really within winning range.
It I were a Notre Dame fan, I am not sure I would be able to read or watch anything Notre Dame this week. I wonder if Notre Dame is going to play well after such a big let down. I still think they win. The future of the 12 team play off is scheduling cupcakes.
Exactly Clemson turned the ball over twice in the RedZone, plus that was cades first road start against a power 5 opponent. Clemson is not a good football team
Even if Clemson scored both times they would have still lost by 7. They barely lost to a top 5 Florida State team in OT so no Clemson is not a bad team it's just that Duke and Florida State were better.
A good video, and I agree Elko has done a fantastic job at Duke. He did a great job at Notre Dame and he will have Duke ready. HOWEVER, the model is struggling from lack of data and really inflating Duke at the moment. The model has Duke favored over ALL AP top 5 teams, double digits over all but Texas. And I think a lot of that has to do with so much weight being on Clemson, who gave the game to Duke. 4 turnovers 3 of them in scoring position and just a poor performance. But then that same Clemson team goes and loses to Florida St because of a missed 29 yard filed goal. So I think that Duke looks better on paper than in actuality, which is what voters are looking at. Are they a top 15 team? Right now they certainly deserve to be. and I have no doubt that they will finish in the top 25. But I would be shocked if they're good enough to beat top 5 teams. Is Notre Dame a top 5 team? I think that's still to be proved. They competed against Ohio State as if they are and they beat weak opponents in the first 4 games as if they are but elite teams should be able to find ways to win and do it consistently and that's not something Notre Dame has done in years past. If they are a top 5 team I think they will beat Duke by double digits. Texas beat a top 15 Alabama by double digits and that's why they're top 5. It'll be exciting to see what happens down the stretch. But for this game I'm at Notre Dame 31 Duke 20
Give me Duke, 34-27. My best friend whos a coach that I watched this with said give him ND 34-24, he thinks ND comes out swinging with their season on the line
Less possessions. A quarter less football essentially yet the TV time slot stays the same... 54% increase in commercials... glad the fans are taking the brunt of networks and conferences making money under the guise of making games "faster paced "..you know for our benefit 🙄
Why shouldn't they drop? They lost! They were dropping the Buckeyes every week when they won and they haven't dropped Michigan one bit even though they have struggled in games against nobody teams.
I don't understand where Notre Dame's respect comes from. They're diet Michigan with way worse coaching. Their star defensive lineman is an Ohio State castoff. Notre Dame is an 8-4/9-3 team waiting to happen. The only game I watched Duke in was Clemson and they looked every bit as athletic and physical in that win. MIke Elko is also that dude. Duke 27 ND 21
So to the first point of ND shouldn't be dogged for losing at home to OSU on the last play of the game: Where was that energy for Alabama last year when they lost on a tipped FG to Tennessee at home? It seems like these concessions are made for some teams while others are held to a much higher standard. I think that is why a number other than 0 in the L column will cause for a significant drop in the poll. Granted did Alabama blow that when they lost to LSU, yea absolutely,, but the talks of "the season being over" and "dropping them significantly for this loss" is just a contradictory standard (not necessarily saying YOU said this, but that the general consensus was this). I say this because there has got to be some level of consistency across the board with how losses are handled and how we analyze the losses taken, because some would argue there were better teams to be in the top 4 last year that were snubbed. Duke will likely deliver ND a second loss, probably by 10+. ND has always been overrated and this year is no different.
@@tkurzND That's not true. As last year they were Preseason 5th, finished 18th and 2019 they were Preseason 9th and finished 12th. But the other years can absolutely be attributed to a light schedule. In the past 5 full seasons, ND's SOS was: (2022) 35th, (2021) 23rd, (2019) 31st, (2018) 20th and (2017) 2nd, being the outlier. This sets them well below many of your P5 usuals and even some G5 powerhouses as well. I don't think they're the MOST overrated team, but they are damn close, in my opinion - based off of the stats and figures that ND has historically produced.
@@Donny_DeVito1) he said 3 out of the last 5 seasons, not every season, ie, he’s already accounted for finishing ranked lower. 2) in 2021, they only played two G5 teams, in 2020 one G5, one, 2019 three G5, in 2018, two G5, in 2017 three G5, and that includes the annual Navy game, which is only due to the historical tradition between the teams. The rest of ND’s schedule is typically 9-10 P5 teams per year, including USC annually. On average, most P5 teams play approximately 2-3 G5 teams per year, including the SEC. Regarding how far they dropped after the loss to OSU: because of the increased parity this year in college football, there arent many teams you can put ahead of ND. At the time this video was posted, 10 to be exact. No one is saying ND is an elite team, but to be fair, there are really only 2 or 3 teams a year who can be called truly elite.
@@Donny_DeVitolastly, regarding scheduling, bc ND has a semi-affiliation to the ACC, they play 5-6 ACC teams every year, scheduling in general is done three to sometimes 10 years away. What I’m trying to say is that it’s difficult to know how good an opponent will be in the future. ND tries to schedule good teams. They scheduled Michigan in 2018 and 2019, OSU in 2022 and 2023, they open 2024 and 2025 with Texas A&M, they open i think 2029 and 2030 with Alabama. Before they struck a deal with the ACC, they had Michigan and Michigan St on their schedule annually (when Michigan St had Leveon Bell, to note). I think there’s a general misconception about scheduling, but especially with ND’s schedule.
As a life long (suffering) Duke Football fan, it's hard to adjust to being relevant. It's exciting for sure! I think this is the best secondary I've ever seen at Duke. If the defense can contain the ND run game and not break in the red zone (a theme forthem so far) then Duke has a chance. In the meantime, to all opposing fans out there, please keep disrespecting Duke, and calling them a Basketball school with a cute story going on in FB... it fuels the fire burning in Durham! LGD!!! 🟦😈
No program in their right mind should schedule these out of conference games. It always hurts you when you lose, and can keep you out of the CFP. That is just the reality.
@@josephmoya5098It does, but only for a team like Notre Dame that needs to keep a solo contract going, which is why they are motivated to schedule it. The Big Ten TV contract is for multiple years in the future and Ohio State sells out most games anyway. So, NBC is definitely putting pressure on Notre Dame to schedule theses games in order to sign large TV contracts. Notre Dame is motivated to do it for similar reasons… However, both the SEC and the Big Ten are not much effected by a game or two out of conference in terms of revenue.
Yep the ranking conversation is important. Teams should be ranked and moved (up or down) based on skill and who they can beat rather than simply wins and losses. For example, if Georgia loses to Alabama, they shouldnt fall below other teams that they can beat just because they lost.
Wrong. If you’re going to do that why play the games at all? Just make the recruiting rankings the final standings. If you lose you drop below teams that haven’t lost. Rankings should be determined by actual results, not projections of who would beat whom in a hypothetical matchup based on recruiting rankings or whatever.
@@derrickmeade4891 Cincinnati was a good team. They played Bama just as tough as most teams have in the CFP semifinals. They also beat ND at ND that year. To act like they didn't earn their way into the CFP is ludicrous, it's not their fault that other teams lost and they didn't.
@@JimDeaned I am being honest and that is what "I" believe. I also believe that ND and OSU are completely different teams that would react to Duke differently as well. Therefore in my thinking I believe Duke beats ND but would lose to OSU.
Just my feel on the game. Recruiting talent, coaching staff, on field performance to this point. I could be wrong and you can bash me for being wrong if I am. Just got a strong feeling I’m not wrong here. Dukes argument is, well Notre Dame isn’t mentally ready for this game. Woohoo
@@joshburns2240 i don't think that was their argument. Their argument is that duke is good enough to beat a nd team after an emotional loss traveling to nc. I think nd wins but it won't be easy
Miami has been utterly dominant all year - far more than Georgia. Full stop. When Georgia plays better than Miami, the model will flip, but that just is what it is.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Miami has averaged 31.5 margin of victory through 4 games while UGA has averaged 30.25 with a very similar caliber of opponents. I’m not sure how proves Miami has been far more dominant than UGA. I definitely don’t see how it equates to a 9 point differential.
Further, Georgia hasn't played anyone remotely similar to Texas A&M. TAMU is 15th in F+. Meanwhile South Carolina is 42nd, UAB 103rd, Ball State 123rd.
You’re only using game stats from this season right? No priors, recruiting rankings or anything like that? If so, I guess these score predictions really have to be taken with a grain of salt because nobody in their right mind would take Miami even as a 5 point favorite against UGA
Ur model is flawed when it comes to Michigan man it has Syracuse duke North Carolina tcu Tennessee Texas a m Washington state Clemson Fresno state kentucky Kansas state Missouri and much more favored over them THATS an obvious flaw
It's unfortunate the current system rewards playing cupcakes.
Wouldn't it be great if it was baked into the CFP to change that? Let's say there was a rule that to be eligible to play in the playoffs, You needed to play 10 power 4 teams and no more than 1 FCS team during the regular season?
“You can’t brag about being undefeated because some teams have actually played somebody”
*GA fans have left the chat
😂😂
As a Notre Dame fan, you have won me over, subscribed. Josh having Geralt on his shelf also won me over, can't fault anyone for taking Duke after how much ND left on the field during OSU game, especially since this will be a huge home game for Duke
The hardest part about picking this game is trying to guess ND’s mental state. After they lost to OSU last year they went and lost to Marshall at home. Have to assume they’re better at compartmentalizing but this year was a much more heartbreaking loss. Too much of a wild card.
I’d be shocked if the Irish loose. Irish 41 Duke 24
Not me they lost to a soft OSU at home no less.
@@brettk9316 OSU is not soft. Pathetic. 🤡
@@brettk9316”soft” lol….I guarantee you’re the soft one in real life
@@brettk9316well get your hard @$$ to Columbus and show them how it's done
I’d be absolutely shocked if ND loses these next two games after that heartbreaker last week. ND comes out pissed and wins 45-24
what i was thinking i think marcus freeman is a great coach he had 1 mistake that cost the game i think the whole team should know playoffs are still very possible if they go out and play for blood
@@grapevibez8893playoffs might be out the picture if these things happen fsu goes undefeated, Texas or Oklahoma go undefeated . Someone from pac12 goes undefeated or ends as a one loss conference champ. Sec undefeated or one loss. Big ten undefeated or one loss will get in over Norte dame. That’s why it hurts not being in a conference
Ah you buttered us up at the beginning to pick against Notre dame I gotcha 🤪😂
Yeah I just don’t like the new clock rule do you think they would ever revert it lol
This video literally helped me find the words and statistics to why I picked Duke to win. I've been struggling to back myself up when talking to other people, and now I'm just gonna send them this video.
Finally got onto your cite. It’s really awesome! I would love a discussion on the Ole Miss LSU game with that model prediction but I know we’re outside your filming window.
For the record, it has Ole Miss 41.6 LSU 24.2
Probably cause it knows Kelly sucks
There's a similar issue with Auburn-Georgia where it has it super-close. The model is really high on Ole Miss, weirdly high on Auburn, and really doesn't like LSU (or FSU).
I have a theory about the polls, especially the coaches poll. The people doing the voting are busy folks with real jobs who don't really have time to study all the film do decide if Washington is better than Oregon or vice versa. If I were a head coach worried about winning my next game, I'd probably tell my secretary to fill out my ballot and just try to make it reasonable.
I've always heard that the Coaches Poll is actually filled out by the Sports Information Directors (SIDs). Most coaches have zero knowledge about teams they aren't going to play.
I'm sure that's true with the coaches poll. I also remember from past years AP voters filling out their ballots before all of the West Coast games were over, and every once in a while a highly ranked Pac-12 would be upset but wouldn't drop as much as they should because voters penciled them in as the winners.
“Ranked wins” should only be calculated at the end of the season based on where everyone ends up.
You didn’t beat the #5 team if they end the season with 4 losses and unranked.
Came for the Duke vs Notre Dame preview. Stayed for the Duke vs Utah preview
If you guys are correct, then I hope the South Bend Suicide Hotlines are fully staffed Saturday Night.
Is this supposed to be funny?
Chill out. I would tell you to take a deep breath and count to eleven, but you would probably suffocate. @@evanschneider7123
@@evanschneider7123yes
Not cool guy
@@greenman5255 So you think making jokes about suicide is just good fun? Also, asking a question implies nothing about my mental state. I assume you are either very young or extremely sheltered. Either way, I hope you never have to understand for yourself why nothing about suicide is funny. Just really, really immature and inane.
Just coming back after Notre Dame won to say you guys were right, ND looked exhausted in the 2nd half after that OSU loss last week, they should have lost. Glad they won, but your predictions were pretty spot on
The emotional let down spot would matter more if they had won, but the loss is a massive motivator for a team that is a top 5 team in the nation, Notre Dame by 10-14
They lost to marshall after the osu loss a season ago. Their concern is valid
@@danzo626 That was a completely different team maturity wise, most of the players on this team were on the team last year and remember that mistake. Only fools bet on lightning striking twice, I said what I said Notre Dame by 10-14.
@@austinfigueroa4851 it's not lightning twice, unestimate how good duke has been.
I have Duke and Utah back to back. I was trying to figure out where to put Duke and i almost had them a top 10 team over FSU. In the end i chickened out and went with the AP.
Clemson had 48 more yards of total offense against Duke, 12 more first downs, and lost by 21 points.
Dabo
And nothing explosive. When Dabo talks about those stats he makes it seem like he does not understand football and what generates points.
I think they might have had over 100 more yards than FSU.
@@jonwalter6317 does that include fumble return yards and the extra possession that results? Nope.
On a per play basis Clemson was outplayed and when you account for explosive plays that is the difference. Football scoring in the modern game is about big plays and explosive plays. Not 5 yards at a time.
@@nole74 Never said it wasn't, just making a comment about the original post. You've obviously stumbled on something you think is important and need to grind that ax. Have fun with it.
Love the model. Maybe you could create a variant that only shows stats vs Power 5 teams? This way mid to late season we would have a different numbers perspective to consider. Especially considering a team like Oklahoma who plays 3 cupcakes compared to West Virginia who plays 1 cupcake
Bama going out of its way to schedule what could be a top 4 team in Texas but now is ranked behind washington etc, explain that.
Yall are so adverse to applying your logic that you use here to Bama last year and TCU getting blown out proves that you should be. Its still an issue w rankings.
One thing about the model is I don't think it takes teams run% vs pass% selection into account? It has air force overperforming because they are currently averaging 18 yards per attempt in the pass game
It's fully factored-in. The trick with Air Force is that they beat San Jose State by as much as USC did and are undefeated. Their performances are kind of all over the place so the model is really having issues with them. In particular, they really key off the opposing run defenses, and some teams (e.g., Georgia) have weird run defense profiles because their opponents were so bad it's hard to look good.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Ok I was thinking that but wasn't entirely sure because in my eyes the scores for air force seemed fairly high. Thanks for clarifying.
Think we are the really winners cause college football nerds talk about us two weeks in a row
You guys are nuts!!!! We will not let OSU beat us twice. I wont be surprised if it is close...but we dont lose.
This game will show if nd can still have a chance to make the playoff. If they look sloppy (even with a win) might shut them out. If they come out and perform, they are a contender
1. Duke is REALLY good, definitely under rated
2. I can see what you're saying about ND not dropping, but only because they really had that game won, and found a stupid way to lose.
3. There are 6 one loss conference teams ranked in the top 25.... 5 of those are from the SEC, and the SEC lost soundly to all the other conferences this year... make it make sense smh
4. Pre-season polls SHOULD NOT EXIST. They are based on nothing, and they affect the entire season. We should not rank teams until after week 1 games.
I currently have Notre Dame in ‘pick em’ on your model. Ignoring data again! 😂 I think ND wins 21-17. Also, again, your model (and Dashboard) rocks!
P.S. On an iPad I did lose the ranking a few times and had to start over, so I recommend hitting ‘submit’ a few times so you don’t lose your list in the middle of picking it. Of course, it could just be my fat fingers…
The playoff committee has a better, weighted formula that lowers the impact of media rankings to some degree, right? I believe we saw that when Tennessee had a couple of days atop the Playoff rankings last season.
I’d lean ND here if not for just playing OSU. From all accounts from the field on Saturday, it was a very physical game with many players limping home. Mentally, ND should be fine. But physically, I just don’t know how they will bounce back.
Classic hangover syndrome.
OH-
Notre dame 28 Duke 10
I really detest the clock running and the impact it has on the game ! -- It sucks in my opinion and I wish they would change it back to how it was.
Im actually starting to like the new clock rules. I think a shorter game with fewer possessions favors the stronger team not the most conditioned team. Meaning the stronger/better team is not going to lose because the weaker/inferior team simply hung around until the other team got tired. Fewer possessions mean a higher percentage of possessions where the teams are ar full strength and not affected by fatigue meaning it's more good on good.
Usually the better teams are deeper which goes into not getting tired later in the game. The longer a game goes it favors the better team.
@@HiiipowerHabits no, i'm talking about matchup games, Shorter games means neither team is so tired at the end of it that it's affecting the play on the field, which means the team that is the better team, skill-wise and talent-wise is favored. Only in longer games would fatigue override a skill/talent advantage.
@@HiiipowerHabits think about those freak defensive linemen who can give 90-100% for 7-8 possessions, but on the 9-15th possession can only give 75% or worse, it's those 9-15th possessions where the less talented team busts a long TD run or whatever where the better team that has flukey offensive struggle game gets beat by 3 points instead of winning.
IF DUKE WINS ND FANS WILL JUMP ON THE .MIKE ELKO BAND WAGON FOR COACH HE DID A GREAT JOB AS NDS DC FOR ONE YEAR
If ND wins out, they will climb again.
If it then gets left out of the playoff it's not because they played OSU, but because they DID NOT join a conference and thus don't play a championship game.
Which is as it should be, because that is just as much their choice as the ooc scheduling of others.
I would be lying if I said this game was on my radar this summer. Or ever.
Its ending a quarter earlier for they are seeking greater revenue, fans don't matter aside from monetization.
Irish play similar ground and pound game like they did last week and they get out with a win, 28-20.
I’m picking Duke.
Duke will win big. ND is definitely more banged up and will still have that loss in the back of their mind. Duke wins 31-17 in a game that ND is never really within winning range.
TOTALLY fair NOT penalizing ND....as an OSU grad I get it. HOWEVER you SHOULD PENALIZE Michigan for playing FOUR TRASH TEAMS ALL AT HOME!!!!!
Big facts, also never mentioned the trash teams duke played either
It I were a Notre Dame fan, I am not sure I would be able to read or watch anything Notre Dame this week. I wonder if Notre Dame is going to play well after such a big let down. I still think they win.
The future of the 12 team play off is scheduling cupcakes.
Go Duke!
Imo either nd blows out duke or they get upset! It’s more about the mentality after that loss to Osu
I think Duke wins as well. I also think it’s a good chance it’s not a one score game. 31-21 Duke.
I think the Clemson Duke game is making Duke look more efficient for yards vs points w/ Clemson turnovers
Exactly Clemson turned the ball over twice in the RedZone, plus that was cades first road start against a power 5 opponent. Clemson is not a good football team
Even if Clemson scored both times they would have still lost by 7. They barely lost to a top 5 Florida State team in OT so no Clemson is not a bad team it's just that Duke and Florida State were better.
@@codyshuler8145I'm not on the hype train for fsu they are definitely a top 15 team but I don't see the top 5
A good video, and I agree Elko has done a fantastic job at Duke. He did a great job at Notre Dame and he will have Duke ready. HOWEVER, the model is struggling from lack of data and really inflating Duke at the moment. The model has Duke favored over ALL AP top 5 teams, double digits over all but Texas. And I think a lot of that has to do with so much weight being on Clemson, who gave the game to Duke. 4 turnovers 3 of them in scoring position and just a poor performance. But then that same Clemson team goes and loses to Florida St because of a missed 29 yard filed goal. So I think that Duke looks better on paper than in actuality, which is what voters are looking at. Are they a top 15 team? Right now they certainly deserve to be. and I have no doubt that they will finish in the top 25. But I would be shocked if they're good enough to beat top 5 teams.
Is Notre Dame a top 5 team? I think that's still to be proved. They competed against Ohio State as if they are and they beat weak opponents in the first 4 games as if they are but elite teams should be able to find ways to win and do it consistently and that's not something Notre Dame has done in years past. If they are a top 5 team I think they will beat Duke by double digits. Texas beat a top 15 Alabama by double digits and that's why they're top 5. It'll be exciting to see what happens down the stretch. But for this game I'm at Notre Dame 31 Duke 20
Give me Duke, 34-27.
My best friend whos a coach that I watched this with said give him ND 34-24, he thinks ND comes out swinging with their season on the line
The ultimate trap game. If ND loses I would not be surprised.
GTFOH Trap games dont occur when you are facing a RANKED Opponent!
Need Notre Dame to take care of business so we can catch them off guard next week in Louisville
It seems Duke would be helped by having faced Hartman a couple of times when he was at Wake.
You could say the same about Hartman. He's played their defense twice before and threw for over 340 both times
Wait people don’t read everything before jumping to conclusions. Who would have thought.
Less possessions. A quarter less football essentially yet the TV time slot stays the same...
54% increase in commercials... glad the fans are taking the brunt of networks and conferences making money under the guise of making games "faster paced "..you know for our benefit 🙄
I think Utah is easily one of the better teams in the country.
duke is not a good team. Their stats are like that because of who they've played this year so far
Irish are gonna play mean! ND 45 Duke 17
Why shouldn't they drop? They lost! They were dropping the Buckeyes every week when they won and they haven't dropped Michigan one bit even though they have struggled in games against nobody teams.
I don't understand where Notre Dame's respect comes from. They're diet Michigan with way worse coaching. Their star defensive lineman is an Ohio State castoff. Notre Dame is an 8-4/9-3 team waiting to happen.
The only game I watched Duke in was Clemson and they looked every bit as athletic and physical in that win. MIke Elko is also that dude.
Duke 27 ND 21
😂
So to the first point of ND shouldn't be dogged for losing at home to OSU on the last play of the game: Where was that energy for Alabama last year when they lost on a tipped FG to Tennessee at home? It seems like these concessions are made for some teams while others are held to a much higher standard. I think that is why a number other than 0 in the L column will cause for a significant drop in the poll. Granted did Alabama blow that when they lost to LSU, yea absolutely,, but the talks of "the season being over" and "dropping them significantly for this loss" is just a contradictory standard (not necessarily saying YOU said this, but that the general consensus was this). I say this because there has got to be some level of consistency across the board with how losses are handled and how we analyze the losses taken, because some would argue there were better teams to be in the top 4 last year that were snubbed. Duke will likely deliver ND a second loss, probably by 10+. ND has always been overrated and this year is no different.
As for the "Always been overrated" in the last five full seasons, three times ND finished higher in the AP poll than they started.
@@tkurzND That's not true. As last year they were Preseason 5th, finished 18th and 2019 they were Preseason 9th and finished 12th. But the other years can absolutely be attributed to a light schedule. In the past 5 full seasons, ND's SOS was: (2022) 35th, (2021) 23rd, (2019) 31st, (2018) 20th and (2017) 2nd, being the outlier. This sets them well below many of your P5 usuals and even some G5 powerhouses as well. I don't think they're the MOST overrated team, but they are damn close, in my opinion - based off of the stats and figures that ND has historically produced.
@@Donny_DeVito1) he said 3 out of the last 5 seasons, not every season, ie, he’s already accounted for finishing ranked lower. 2) in 2021, they only played two G5 teams, in 2020 one G5, one, 2019 three G5, in 2018, two G5, in 2017 three G5, and that includes the annual Navy game, which is only due to the historical tradition between the teams. The rest of ND’s schedule is typically 9-10 P5 teams per year, including USC annually.
On average, most P5 teams play approximately 2-3 G5 teams per year, including the SEC.
Regarding how far they dropped after the loss to OSU: because of the increased parity this year in college football, there arent many teams you can put ahead of ND. At the time this video was posted, 10 to be exact. No one is saying ND is an elite team, but to be fair, there are really only 2 or 3 teams a year who can be called truly elite.
@@Donny_DeVitolastly, regarding scheduling, bc ND has a semi-affiliation to the ACC, they play 5-6 ACC teams every year, scheduling in general is done three to sometimes 10 years away. What I’m trying to say is that it’s difficult to know how good an opponent will be in the future. ND tries to schedule good teams. They scheduled Michigan in 2018 and 2019, OSU in 2022 and 2023, they open 2024 and 2025 with Texas A&M, they open i think 2029 and 2030 with Alabama. Before they struck a deal with the ACC, they had Michigan and Michigan St on their schedule annually (when Michigan St had Leveon Bell, to note). I think there’s a general misconception about scheduling, but especially with ND’s schedule.
Also, can you please provide a source of your SOS rankings? It doesnt seem to match what I’m finding.
ND is covering
Notre Dame will win by at least 17pts.
Hartman is the better QB in the clutch.
Didn't he throw an interception against Duke last year that lost them the game
As a life long (suffering) Duke Football fan, it's hard to adjust to being relevant. It's exciting for sure! I think this is the best secondary I've ever seen at Duke. If the defense can contain the ND run game and not break in the red zone (a theme forthem so far) then Duke has a chance. In the meantime, to all opposing fans out there, please keep disrespecting Duke, and calling them a Basketball school with a cute story going on in FB... it fuels the fire burning in Durham! LGD!!! 🟦😈
ND 24 20
Go Irish!
Would love to see Notre Dame lose but got the feeling ND pulls this one out..
ND 30 - 13
The model values Tennessee too highly.
Has them beating Georgia OSU and South Carolina by 22
Lol!! That's crazy I think their selling this model without the whole truth.
I've not watched a tennessee game do they have a decent online? If so they honestly could beat georgia in a shootout
No way in hell Notre Dame gets beat by Duke And you are all high if you think so
Duke > Florida State
Go Irish! ND wins by 28!
Wouldn’t doubt it
ND 27-24
EVERY BODY PLAYES CUP CAKES GIVE ME A BREAK LOOK AT MICHIGANS SCUDULE
WHY ARE WE YELLING??? !!! ???
And Irish will be 30-0 against the acc
No program in their right mind should schedule these out of conference games. It always hurts you when you lose, and can keep you out of the CFP. That is just the reality.
Brings in a lot of money though.
Casual take
@@thisguy7062I’m a very casual guy! 😂
@@josephmoya5098It does, but only for a team like Notre Dame that needs to keep a solo contract going, which is why they are motivated to schedule it. The Big Ten TV contract is for multiple years in the future and Ohio State sells out most games anyway. So, NBC is definitely putting pressure on Notre Dame to schedule theses games in order to sign large TV contracts. Notre Dame is motivated to do it for similar reasons… However, both the SEC and the Big Ten are not much effected by a game or two out of conference in terms of revenue.
I agree, but only in the short term before the playoffs expand.
Yep the ranking conversation is important. Teams should be ranked and moved (up or down) based on skill and who they can beat rather than simply wins and losses. For example, if Georgia loses to Alabama, they shouldnt fall below other teams that they can beat just because they lost.
Then when you add in perception and prior rankings, the rankings we have can just be a mess.
Wrong. If you’re going to do that why play the games at all? Just make the recruiting rankings the final standings. If you lose you drop below teams that haven’t lost. Rankings should be determined by actual results, not projections of who would beat whom in a hypothetical matchup based on recruiting rankings or whatever.
@@chads9431it has to be both otherwise you get another Cincinnati situation
@@derrickmeade4891 Cincinnati was a good team. They played Bama just as tough as most teams have in the CFP semifinals. They also beat ND at ND that year. To act like they didn't earn their way into the CFP is ludicrous, it's not their fault that other teams lost and they didn't.
Duke better win as think ND was a bit overrated as still don't think OSU that good PSU gonna man handle them.
Psu? Talk about overrated 😂
Psu is not going to do shit to osu lmao
First
Duke is definitely better than they are getting credit for, and I believe that will show up against ND. ND 24 Duke 31
so you think duke would beat OSU then
@@JimDeanedI would venture to say that OSU would beat Duke. Just because I like Duke over ND doesn't correlate to them beating OSU.
@@kcane2009 it should if you’re intellectually honest about it
@@JimDeaned I am being honest and that is what "I" believe. I also believe that ND and OSU are completely different teams that would react to Duke differently as well. Therefore in my thinking I believe Duke beats ND but would lose to OSU.
Unnghh unhhh
Wow picking Duke is insane.
Why?
Just my feel on the game. Recruiting talent, coaching staff, on field performance to this point.
I could be wrong and you can bash me for being wrong if I am. Just got a strong feeling I’m not wrong here.
Dukes argument is, well Notre Dame isn’t mentally ready for this game. Woohoo
@@joshburns2240 i don't think that was their argument. Their argument is that duke is good enough to beat a nd team after an emotional loss traveling to nc. I think nd wins but it won't be easy
Your model says Miami is 9 points better than UGA… seriously flawed model😂
Miami has been utterly dominant all year - far more than Georgia. Full stop. When Georgia plays better than Miami, the model will flip, but that just is what it is.
@@CollegeFootballNerds Miami has averaged 31.5 margin of victory through 4 games while UGA has averaged 30.25 with a very similar caliber of opponents. I’m not sure how proves Miami has been far more dominant than UGA. I definitely don’t see how it equates to a 9 point differential.
Miami won 3 games by 35+, and then beat Texas A&M by 15. Georgia beat 2 teams by 35+, beat a bad UAB by 28, and beat a bad South Carolina by 10.
Further, Georgia hasn't played anyone remotely similar to Texas A&M. TAMU is 15th in F+. Meanwhile South Carolina is 42nd, UAB 103rd, Ball State 123rd.
You’re only using game stats from this season right? No priors, recruiting rankings or anything like that? If so, I guess these score predictions really have to be taken with a grain of salt because nobody in their right mind would take Miami even as a 5 point favorite against UGA
Ur model is flawed when it comes to Michigan man it has Syracuse duke North Carolina tcu Tennessee Texas a m Washington state Clemson Fresno state kentucky Kansas state Missouri and much more favored over them THATS an obvious flaw