TOP 50 | Biggest Flops | Betting Odds vs. Results | Eurovision 2011 - 2021 Grand Finals
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- Опубликовано: 5 окт 2024
- Top 50 of biggest flops in betting odds compared to the official results in Eurovision Grand Finals 2011-2021. Odds were taken during the live shows before the voting.
IMPORTANT: The betting odds placings are based on the outright market. If a country is placed 10th it doesn't mean the exact predicted place is 10th but otherwise it's not possible to create a video like this. Odds of Top 10 / 15 could be slightly different but not far away from the outright market.
![All Winners of Eurovision Song Contest [1956-2023]](/img/1.gif)
The betting odds placings are based on the outright market. If a country is placed 10th it doesn't mean the exact predicted place is 10th but otherwise it's not possible to create a video like this. Odds of Top 10 / 15 could be slightly different but not far away from the outright market. Odds were taken during the live shows before the voting.
This Is a great video and an idea is for the opposite were a country does better than the odds said they would do
@@Severin1808 pretty sure they have done this already
You forgot ABSOLUTE Number 1 in this category 😞
How is Italy 2017 not in here? 😯 It was nr 1 in odds but ended up 6th, so a difference of 5, like all the ones in the beginning. Plus it's arguably a much bigger flop if you're a sure-fire nr 1 in odds for a long time and yet end up 6th, than someone 15th in the odds ending up 20th, that doesn't really make such a big difference ;)
@@florenna because he is talking about the live shows during that period he was already in declining
I wish Uk send something creative, risky, surprising, like.. they have nothing to lose, they can't do worse at this point
We honestly have so many good artists and whoever runs it always sends artists nobody even here knows of. We could pack a good punch if the organisers want to, they just won't take the risk 😫😫😫.
They can basically send whatever they will make it to the second stage
it wasn't the song the reason they got 0 points, it never is. Eurovision is all about politics, not the actual songs sadly
@@kaveren2 if we're gonna come last I'd rather come last with an actually good song, embers was not it at all 😬😬😬😬
@@kaveren2 politics do play a role in eurovision but not that much, embers was just horrible and the dude couldn't sing💀
Some of this songs were robbed, some were overrated by bookies.
That's because most bookies are English and they favour certain countries (UK, Ireland). It's completely delusional.
Some also performed well in the semis and then had a terrible performance in the final. Can't really predict that.
@NS-un5lz . Bookmakers aren't expressing who they think will win. The odds are based on $ being bet on each country. Main bookies are British and Irish so they are always at risk from local singers hence shorter than deserved odds. Luckily for them UK and Ireland have been almost useless so they keep the money. The winner is usually one of bookies favorites
And sometimes the contestant just does not as well in the Grand Final
Rockefeller Street is such a bop, it deserved to be at the top 10
Yeah
Well it became a successful song in the long run, definitely more memorable than all the other songs in the competition.
yep, Rockefeller Street and Lipstick are the most memorable songs from ESC 2011
@@somethung8188 absolutely, maybe Top 10 is a little bit much, but I don't get, why it ranked that low, at least Top 15 would have been great. And Sweden's entry was also merely a teen pop song, but it finished 3rd, so this might not be the problem. Although maybe if you consider the gender issue, I don't know. In my opinion, Estonia should have ranked higher and Sweden lower.
I would like to see betting odds vs results but the most successful ones, like it was 'supposed to be 15, but was 6 etc
Moldova says hi
@@geminix365 you say hi, not Moldova
Or North Macedonia in 2019!
Natalia: Hold my AaaaaaAaaaaAaaaa
Conchita and common linnets come to mind
What about a video with the top 50 songs that the bookies didn't see doing well, but did?
Yes, it's my next video :)
I’d love to see it when it comes out!
I mean Moldova 2017
@@lawrenceelliott1097 Salvador and Eleni too
@@arjenboersmaa not before the show
Some of these UK betting odds were insane. Who in their right mind thought that their 2018 and 2012 acts would end up in the Top 10?
In 2012 it could have been because Engelbert had hits in the past. But as we know, famous names doesn't automatically mean great ESC results
Uk in 2018 was purely due to the stage invasion I think. I think it was like 19th in the odds beforehand.
@@archielangley7723 no she straight up shot from 25th to top 10 because of stage invasion
@@ohandthefracking really? like during the show? I thought they were closed during the show
@@vincentstef5708 yeah she had a big jump during her invasion and throughtout the whole Grand Finale's perfomances..im p sure odds closed after Italy
How Alexander Ryback even got that dreadful song to 15th in the first place is beyond me
ig it's because he won once so he got a lot of support
it should have been 25th
The worst thing is that he even won the semi
I had completely forgotten that was a competing song. That was so bad
@@escpower5907 Nope.
ESC: How much difference do you want?
2011: Yes
Odds: That's will be the Final Ranking
*After the final*
Odds: ..............
People in 2011 didn't get the beauty of Rockefeller Street... Such iconic meme song.
The UK just got double 0 and I'm still more embarrassed by Electro Velvet.
I'm more embarrassed that I LIKED Electro Velvet back in 2015 💀 (I was 12)
I actually enjoyed their performance and still listen to that song to this day. It's fun.
The worst eurovision song of all time
It's a good song, people just weren't ready (and the live performance was bad).
If we got doubt 0 with something as cringe as Electro Velvet I think people would understand but Embers was a better attempt than we usually send
Times a country has been overrated by the oddsmakers:
UK 7 times
Ireland 4 times
Spain, France, Finland, Norway 3 times
Italy, Germany, Malta, Azerbaijan, Greece, Denmark, Estonia, Australia 2 times
Austria, Sweden, Lithuania, Slovenia, Croatia, Romania, Armenia, Georgia, Hungary and San Marino 1 time
( _If I made a mistake counting, please comment and correct me, and I'll change it_ )
France 2019, Italy 2012, Armenia 2017, Norway 2012, Finland 2018, *San Marino 2021* , Germany 2013, *United Kingdom 2014* and Hungary 2011 deserved what was estimated...
I so agree with France in 2019, the performence that was just really good
Oh, I'm still so sad about Children of the universe
@@lorilei8535 San Marino 2021 was controversial...
Children of universe deserved much more.
You gotta remember that most of the bookies are "British" or have links to the UK. So no surprise we are overhyped every year
Just like in football lol
Being British I would’ve thought our usual general consensus was “….. nah we’re shit tbf”
2011 was so unpredictable lol
seeing senhit and ryan o’shaughnessy in a video like this hurts me a lot 🙃
Surprisingly few deserved (much) better in my opinion.
Some of those predictions were crazy from the start, like who really believed in the success of "Love Will Set You Free"?
Why did people think Storm 2018 would win? The only reason people remember it is that it was hijacked, there were plenty of great songs that year idk why people were betting on that
@@michellesmirnova4471 No one thought Storm would win lmao
@@michellesmirnova4471 It was around 20th-26th in the odds most of the time, only went up to 8th after the stage invader and people put money on her to win cause they thought she would get sympathy votes
@@chriswharton5465 that's explanation, UK 2012 makes no sense that song is for putting you to sleep with how boring it is
Italy getting 3rd in 2012 would have been amazing
They deserved it. That song was excellent!
I KNOW I LOVED IT SM
I'm still listening to it, and it was an example why we need juries (she was 3rd or 4th with juries)
I'm still listening to it, and it was an example why we need juries (she was 3rd or 4th with juries)
Nooo Zeljko was better!
In fact Spain 2016 got to the 3rd position in the odds after the live performance
I loved that performance so much! 🤩
I didn’t think barei was good.
@@SigmaRho2922 the performance was bad ngl, that's what RTVE does year after year.
Da Da Dam was killed by being the opener. Such bad luck
im guessing quite a few of these flopped either because of low televoting scores OR low jury scores (for instance uk 2011 was 4th in the odds and came 5th with the televoting but 22th with the juries), so it would be interesting to know which entries flopped the most consistently with both (like adrenalina came 21st with the televoting and 18th with the juries despite odds predicting it to come 10th)
I predicted Adrenalina to have a 15th-20th place finish due to an expected low jury score.
@@SigmaRho2922 i knew the jury would have it low but based on the hype it was getting with fans and the attention it was getting in the media i thought it could possibly get top 5 with the televote (also it was my favourite pop song of the year so i expected people to vote for it regardless of flo rida)
@@niadavies5223 I was not expecting a top 10 finish for San Marino this time.
With Adrenalina, it was kinda both, although they really flopped with the televoters, which gave them only 13 points.
I love how San Marino is #13 in this list when they only got 13 points from the televote...
And following that is Cascada
How france 2011 could be winner?
that year was garbage ehh
You know, It was an opera so bookies thought that everyone will apreciate vocal abilities and just a fact that it was an opera
it is a way more qorthy winner than running scared
@@ggoddf5889 running scared even was better
2011 was a really weird year both with songs and voting
How did Amanecer / Spain 2015 do so badly. That song is amazing. She is gorgeous, flawless vocals and beautiful staging.
The stage was a mess. Same with Barei and Micki Nuñez. We had a horrible delegation until 2021, who only wanted to boycott our entries.
The UK 2018 is a bit unfair cause the only reason she shot up as she did was when she got invaded before the show she was hovering around the 24/25 mark
Oh yeah, that happened
Paradise Oskar makes me so sad 😢
He was top 3 in his Semi but got completely shafted by the grand final running order.
That’s what happened this year with Malta and Switzerland. Both winning their semis but placed 6th and 11th!!! They deserved a later running order. THEY were shafted for sure!!!!!
@@rogercook9693 Malta, yes. 6th was not a good spot. And also there was an influx of female vocal pop bops in the final that competed for points.
But Switzerland had a genuinely good running position, just that the grand final had more acts that competed for votes with him as well that weren't in Semi 2, which definitely contributed. Televote is a lot more competitive typically in that aspect, and while Switzerland finished Top 3 overall, televote 6th is still very in line with the points he got in his Semi performance where he came 3rd in televote.
I think, being first in the running order might have doomed his chances as well...
I loved his song so bad 😢
What I learned from this video is that bookies keep expecting Uk to do well or at least ok, but they basically do poorly every year.
I feel like a difference of 5-6ish isn't that much of a flop 🤔
Rockefeller Street best Eurovision song ever. The queen got hella robbed
😂😅
I remember listening to that song so many times back in 2011😭😂
Eurovision: UK, how many times you will flop at the final?
UK: Yes
Switzerland 2008, was #1 in odds, but didnt qualify
Oh my
knowing now how much of an impact rockefeller street made and how it’s known basically all over the world, it’s crazy to see that it flopped this hard in eurovision
Finland 2018 and Estonia 2011's end results are crimes against humanity and i'm absolutely still mad about it
Germany 2013 was also.
Jedward in second? Even i see that was a bad call.
They weren't bad, especially with a mess 2011 was but second with bookies?
@@eurodara It was probably because "Lipstick" sounds almost exactly like a 2010-2011 hit song, so, combined with Jedward's energy and a very radio friendly song, they thought Jedward was in the running.
@@MrMike855 I mean, I am aware and I like Lipstick, but it still doesn't change the fact that 2011 ESC was a mess
@@MrMike855 2011 was a real mess, 20 songs could win and at the end we had one of the worst winner ever
I knew Rockefeller Street will be in this list but didn't expect it to be first. Also it was a surprise for me that Storm was quite high in odds, didn't expect that either 😊. Greetings from 🇪🇪!
San Marino 2021 is robbery for me. How it has worse score than Serhat in 2019, which was bad song...
the answer is simple = turkish people in Europe
ESC2021 was very strong. This is why
UK odds are always weird as fuck but genuinely loved UK 2017.
Honorable mention, my Croatia in 2010. We were 4th in the betting odds and did not even go to the Grand Final. Was pretty heartbreaking...
2011 Ireland and France (Best/true winner)
2014 The Netherlands and Italy (Best/true winner)
2016 Austria (Best/ true winner)
2021 San Marino deserved high place
Finally, someone who have Zoë as winner in 2016! 🤗🤗🤗🥰🥰🥰
Great vid. It's interesting to see how difficult it was to predict the placements of the early 2010s and for each year there are less surprises between the bookies predictions and the final placements
So many huge flops in 2011...
The moral of the story is that the UK always underperform and it'll be the same with Olly this year considering he's 10th in the odds
I guess UK was so high a lot of times, because British people bet a lot on ESC and people tend to overhype their own entries? Most of those songs were garbage.
Idk, from what I've seen a lot of British people (except from the really extreme patriots) hate our own entries, so no idea what's up with a lot of them. I'm assuming Surie was only because of the stage invasion and Engelbert maybe because he'd had pretty big songs in the past?
Edit: it probably was just the extreme British patriots betting a lot of the time though, lmao.
Agree, 2014’s is the only outliner in my opinion, maybe 2017 too
@@joelatkin1214 they were fine, but Molly was sloughtered by the staging and "I will never give up on you" had very basic lyrics, which made both entries just fine and nothing outstanding tbh.
Also we have to rmb just because these songs all flopped doesn't mean they're necessarily bad,they were just completely overshadowed by other songs from having more points.
soluna samay is criminally underrated, not just in eurovision but generally as an artist.
I was so sure that Adrenalina will end up in top 10
I think that we can all agree that Senhit shouldn't be here 😕 Jessica Mauboy was also criminally underrated, especially comparing it with their song from 2017
Still shocked about
Spain 2016 & 2019 (Say Yay is one of my fav song ever)
San Marino 2021
Iceland 2012
Ireland 2018
UK 2014
Finland 2018
Saara's song was amazing, but her staging was so weird and lackluster. Which is weird, because her style basically IS Eurovision. I've always wondered if she wasn't given creative control.
That's why the French people think they'll never win
And maybe it's because our very good songs like the Barbara's one don't win lol :')
@@angelbipboup9096 Barbara didn't win because of Switzerland. Many saw the two songs as french ballads, so they kinda cancelled each other. But 2nd and 3rd is still very good.
@@sandroribeiro7644 It would be more right to say Barbare took Gjons victory.. Since he was a favorite 2 years in a row.. YES he was the favorite in 2020
what I'm quickly learning is that the betting odds forget about Britain being Britain
It’s very shocking seeing the UK so many times here. The weirdest year was 2011. It was all over the place. The bookies got a lot of the entries very wrong.
I know for the UK that year, the betting prediction was quite accurate for the public vote, the jury vote dragged it way down though.
This ranking is mostly Big Five songs aiming high and failing spectacularly
Watching this back and seeing some of the betting odds for the earlier years, I don’t think the bookies took the running order into consideration back then like they do now….. saying that though, to think Englebert would’ve come anywhere else other than bottom with that song was madness
Please could you make a video of the average Televote and Jury ranks of the 26 countries in 2021 grand final ?
Iceland 2016 was a bookies fave and didnt qualify or at least thats what I remember
ESC 2011 was like the worst. The worst winner, the worst points for the really decent songs (as we can see in this vid)
its my favorite year
My Heart is still broken about soluna Samay x) i just loved the vibe.
This is was actually the first artist i follow after eurovision.
Same
How the heck was Ireland 2011 2nd in the odds?
My Favorites
Lipstick (Ireland 2011) - 8 Points
That's How You Write A Song (Norway 2018) - 8 Points
Marry Me (Finnland 2013) - 8 Points
Adrenalina (San Marino 2021) - 8 Points
Waterline (Ireland 2012) - 10 Points
Never Give Up on You (UK 2017) - 10 Points
Voices (Sweden 2021) -10 Points
Together (Ireland 2018) - 10 Points
Fallen Angel (Norway 2021) - 12 Points
Roi (France 2019) - 12 Points
Zero Gravity (Australia 2019) - 12 Points
La Venda (Spain 2019) - 12 Points
When We're Old (Lithuania 2018) -12 Points
1: Firelight - Coming Home (2014)
2: Barei - Say Yay (2016)
3: Bilal Hassani - Roi (2019)
4: SuRie - Storm (2018)
5: Senhit - Adrenalina (2021)
6: Jedward - Lipstick (2011)
7: Lucie Jones - Never Give Up on You (2017)
8: Saara Aalto - Monsters (2018)
10: Cascada - Glorious (2013)
12: Getter Janni - Rockefeller Street (2011)
The problem with these odds is they based on the entire betting market, which would include the weeks before Eurovision. A song like Sognu for France in 2011 was popular before Eurovision, then crashed at Eurovision. There wasn't time for the betting market to adjust, especially when many peope don't see rehearsals. Countries in semi finals obviously get visibility and the market adjusts. Ideally, use the odds before Eurovision starts or you need a fresh market that is started after semi finals are complete.
5:12 Haha 9h!!?!?
Thats the one standing out to me lol. At least Storms and Love Will Set You Free are songs, You're Not Alone is proper garbage
I love Zeeeeeero Graaaaaaavaity and RUAAAA
Jedward is 2nd? Na ah sis, in Ireland they're literally a meme lmfao
The mainlanders actually liked them though. That's the type of europop rubbish they listen to. Lipstick even charted in South Korea believe it or not.
We loved it back in 2011.
Mata hari, adrenalina, amanecer, say yei, la venda, Rockafeller Street, Roi didn't deserved that final result
Adrenalina in my opinion performed a bit worse than I expected to (15th-20th was my prediction).
Germany 2013 and Finland 2018 didn't deserve their final results.
Not you putting Senhit in the thumbnail as if she didn't slay
I feel like the only person that didn’t like San Marino’s entry this year ^^’ It wasn’t bad but in comparison to the rest it was meh. Senhit’s vocals weren’t great and the song itself wasn’t very memorable or interesting to me. The performance was decent and they had good energy, but I’m not surprised people didn’t vote for it. I don’t think Europeans really know who Flo Rida is either, and I doubt anybody is a big enough fan of him to vote purely for that reason. If anything his presence was the only reason anybody remember the song.
I expected the song to not be in the top 10 due to a low jury score.
Roi is an underrated masterpiece
You know you shouldn’t trust the bookies when the put the uk up so high 😅
Wonder if Brits made these predictions
I think many of the flops happen because of the tv audience who never watched the music videos nor listened to the songs. As long as I remember the odds are based on the fan reception of each song. (Please tell me if I am wrong)
In 2011 odds really really flopped. Also they gave a lot chance to UK..
Please have an update on the video until 2024, I’m really curious to see the changes please. Thank you for the video!!!
Would be interesting to see the before semj odds compared to their overall finish
After a month I’m crying for San Marino
San Marino 😔Best song for me
So, in 2011 the betting odds made soooo much more sense than the actual results! France had by far the best song of the year (although the presentation was quite underwhelming, but still top5 worthy) . Finland was the best act. Estonia was top3 material both as a song and as an act. Yes, 2011 was a very weak year but a so ultra-dull winner like Azerbaijan was too much of a stretch. The only hint of sense in the top5 was Denmark.
My top10 would be Finland, Georgia, Estonia, Denmark, France, Greece, Albania, Spain, Latvia, Germany.
Flo Rider did not become a member of San Marino to get 13th place on a list about biggest bookie flops
I thought France 2018 was 3rd in the odds but finished 13th
Yes, I am sure they are missing from this video!
France 10th in the odds (source: eurovisionworld.com/odds/eurovision-2018 )
France 13th in the results: (eurovisionworld.com/eurovision/2018)
Hungary 2011 😭 Estonia 2011 😭
United Kingdom and Spain are very underrated countries, they deserve to be in a better position
2011 was a weird year.There were several claims that azerbaijan rigged the contest (the french delegation sent a complaint that Azerbaijan sabotaged amaury's performance). But hey, we will never know
The truth is that Eurovision 2011 was terribly bad, regardless of whether there was manipulation or not, if there are 3 performances that are good, there are still too many for that Eurovision
Alternative title: UK in Eurovision 2011-2021 XD
only love survives underrated
I think that in the songs where the difference between the betting odds and the actual results is the same, the better placing songs in the finals should place lower in this list instead of higher because the list is rather a countdown of bad bets to worst. In a sense, the countdown reflects bad results in relation to the odds, number 1 being the worst. So higher placements in the actual results is much better than lower placements even if the difference in the odds and actual results are of the same distance.
For instance, for all the entries with 5-placement difference, the one placed in the lowest rank in this countdown, at number 50, should be "Zero Gravity" as its final result was 9, followed by either "When We're Old" or "Walk on Water" at numbers 49 and 48 as both placed 12th. Then 47 is "Voices," placing 14th, 46 "The Secret is Love" at 18th place, and 45 and 44 either "Where I Am" or "Mata Hari" as both ended in place 20. Saying "Zero Gravity" performed worse than "Mata Hari" kind of does not make sense.
Anyway, still enjoyed the video. Thing is, I just love countdown videos whatever they are for because I get to see as many Eurovision entries as possible in a short period of time. Hehehe
2011 was a suprising year Estonia was my fave
Video idea - do the same but also include those that didn’t qualify for the grand final since you can still see the placement history of the eliminated countries
I did not realize that Jedward's Lipstick came that close to winning Eurovision.
In any cases, the odds predict the winner almost every year in recent years, there isn’t a big suspens
I mean 🇮🇹 weren’t the predicted winners until we’ll into rehearsals, it was very close this year
@@ryanwalker8212 Yes but after the rehearsals, odds predict the winner
Melovin from Ukraine in 2018:🗿🚬
I'd like to see a top 50 of drops from year to year! Like how Macedonia came 7th in 2019 but in 2021 they fell to like 30 something. So the top 50 biggest year on year drops 😁
Adrenalina is such a beautiful song... I can't uderstand why it got so few points..
Lucie Jones, UK 2017, Fav.
Where is Cyprus? Cyprus had many underrated entries such as 2012, 2016, 2021, but you have included so many weaker songs. Also, you repeat the same countries.
I don't think 3rd place is completely truthful abd fair because she only rose in the odds because of the stage invation
Ireland is overrated by the Odds
The Irish have a pattern of always crazily betting on their songs when they qualify to the final.
Nobody expected Ireland to come last in 2013 though. The song was pretty decent.
odds of #1 and placing #15 has to be the worst lol
In March 2021, I warned everyone about San Marino’s entry entitled Adrenalina. Even though Flo Rida was featured on the song, I predicted that the song would not finish in the top 10 because of concerns of the song being too similar to the song Cyprus sent in 2018. I predicted that the expected placing of 15th-20th would be because of a low jury score and a middle of the pack televoting score. Having read many news reports about GameStop experiencing a short squeeze in January 2021, I realized than San Marino was the GameStop of Eurovision. The experiences that I had with Germany in 2013 and Finland in 2018 made me uneasy to give Adrenalina the same score as those entries. Just like with what happened with GameStop the song collapsed to the ground at the contest due to a 22nd place finish. But 4 songs with nul points in the televote made this situation worse.
Who the fuck thought that lipstick would get second
spain 2015 2016 and 2019 were good songs
I’m Estonian and I’m laughing to death 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🇪🇪🇪🇪🇪🇪
My country being the biggest flopper and I felt that in my soul