The Bull vs Bear Game + Trudeau Says Housing Not a Primary Responsibility - Roundtable - August 2023
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- Опубликовано: 23 июл 2024
- It's time for our monthly roundtable!
As usual, Urmi (who is recording on vacation from New York City, apologies for the sound quality) talks to Steve in Vancouver and John in Toronto.
This month we discuss the latest trends in both housing markets and some early signs of investors beginning to sell investments to deleverage. Justin Trudeau announced this month that housing is not a primary responsibility of the federal government - what does that mean for Canadians facing higher housing costs? And we wrap up this month’s roundtable with a Bull vs Bear debate on the outlook for Canadian Real Estate.
0:00 Intro
00:51 Toronto Market Update
06:52 Vancouver Market Update
09:14 Trudeau Says Housing is Not a Primary Federal Responsibility
20:11 Questioning Housing Demand Stoked by Immigration is Finally Not Xenophobic
23:22 Trudeau Shuffles His Cabinet and Ministers of Housing and Immigration
37:36 We Need to Talk about Education Sector Impacts on Housing Next Time
38:34 John and Steve Play a Round of Canadian Real Estate - Bullish or Bearish?
54:09 Conspiracy Alert: Several GTA New Build Sites Catch Fire
About This Series
Each month, Move Smartly.com editor, Urmi Desai, talks to Steve Saretsky (@saretsky ) Housing Analyst & Realtor at Oakwin Realty in Vancouver and John Pasalis (@MoveSmartly ) Housing Analyst, Broker and President, Realosophy Realty in Toronto about the latest data and on-the-ground insights in Canada's biggest residential RE markets.
You can listen to this episode on our MoveSmartly Podcast channel: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast...
Feedback or Questions? Connect with us on Twitter:
@MoveSmartly
@JohnPasalis
@SteveSaretsky
Reach out to the show over email at editor@movesmartly.com
MoveSmartly.com is powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto: www.movesmartly.com/about
@35:58 really good point by urmi. Whos working hard on vacation! Thank you all for your commitment to provide quality content 👍🏼
Trudeau Must GO!!
uh no, Pierre is a disaster worse than Ford....who with giving his buddies the greenbelt land has shown just how corrupt he is..........but he sure isn't the worst conservative by a long shot (they all are bad)
and if you think Pierre will do anything about housing I have a bridge to sell you..........other than make it even more expensive because that is what conservatives do.
Go learn how to read
great episode! great points; the bear vs bull debate was a great Q. Also, Urmi was on fire from NY this month 🤣
Urmi is very smart. I enjoyed hearing her speak more in this episode.
she was great
JT being tone deaf is understatement of the year saddly 😟
Very insightful as always!
In reply to Mr. Trudeau,
If half of the students in whole canada buy their own tents from bass pro or order one from amazon, and live in camping grounds or public parks from the start of spring market to end of fall market, we will surely see a huge correction in real estate in canada.
No rental payments = No mortgage payments
All what is happening is due to exploitation that immigrants face in form of below minimum wages, high rents, have to buy LMIA, etc . All this happening while majority of Canadian citizens are blinded by rising house price profits,
Every Citizen of canada who is quiet now is witness to destruction of their own next generation,
I really appreciate your Good work by bringing this on real estate roundtable
The feds have plenty of control over housing. They can drive people into trade schools and they can give immigration preference to trades people. They are also fully responsible to create housing for the record levels of immigrants they are inviting.
its so easy. And the students will do it too. Fuc kthese garbage BUSINESS ADMIN bs diploma. Make them take apprenticeship. Make them build
They flood the market with high skilled people to keep wages flat
Of course the fed government is the one who has created this big mess and now kind of too easy to just say 'it's not the federal government's responsibility to take care of the housing market' ! Well, Trudeau is contradicting himself ; isn't he the one who has banned the foreign buyers from the residential canadian market, just to blame some poor individuals who don't have a voice since they cannot vote. So why did he do that since it's not his responsibility ? He sure put a lot of effort and 'evilness' to ban those poor foreign buyers who had nothing to do with the housing crisis. So mean and hypocritical to say that.
The feds are attracting skilled tradespeople but even more tradespeople are ageing out of the workforce.
@@Carolinapetroska
Very informative.
It was under Trudeau that mortgage amortizations went from 40 to 25 years, they have been trying to cool down the supply side for 10 years. Also increased down-payment required and stress tests. It's definitely on the provinces and municipalities.
Great content!..one thing I am not seeing people discuss is borrowers hitting the trigger point. The negative amortization mortgage story is not entirely correct. My Green Bank just contacted me after the most recent rate hike, which made me hit the trigger point(not trigger rate) and now they want me to increase my mortgage by $1000 to fit into the 30-year amortization. And by the way, this is still going to be just the interest portion. Oh, and the bank actually told me, "Increase payment or switch to 3-year fixed or sell the property". Extending and pretending is not the full story. :) Keep up the great work!
John said it: certain segments are profiting massively under the current system and the statements from the minister about immigration going up are a signal to the corporate sector that wages will be flat.
Great Podcasting 👍
Thank you for watching and the kind words! ~ Urmi
I'm so tired of the 'supply problem' approved media narrative. We're just expected to ignore the greed and commoditization of housing?
The government at all levels does everything possible to limit supply. A building permit should be issued in a day, not years .
Federal government is bringing in a ridiculous amount of immigration that puts tremendous upward pressure on home and rent prices and downward pressure on wages...
Their serve boomer home owners and corporate overlords - the middle class is being thrown under the bus
Most of the folks I know that have come in the last 5-10 years go variable and are getting slaughtered by high mortgage payments right now. I think they are buying the top. You really need to look at your neighbours AirBnB and HELOC "investments". Not sure how long the music will play as tourism is taking a dip too.
I would like to hear Urmi's opinion on the economic impact of the nearly 500,000 temporary foreign workers brought into Canada. What effect does this have on wages?
Thank you for watching and for your kind words! We are planning to do more segments with experts on federal labour policy to better understand impact on wages, rising rents and other housing impacts - stay tuned in Sept ~ Urmi
I'm ready to move up to a 1.1-1.3m Leslieville from my Scarborough .9m side split. I hope the sub million home will move slower then the Leslieville...
I watched that Trudeau presser live and I buried my head in my hands when he said "housing is not a primary responsibility"..
Trudeau say housing is not primary responsibility rather immigration is main responsibility that fuelling the rental prices.
Steve said prices peak up january 2023,lets see if he was right...
HE said that ages ago, we all heard it....what you can't take a vacation? read what Lee Iacocca says about that, and no he was not a Real Estate agent.
20 plus international students living in the same house stacked like sardines, welcome more international students.
Instead the building becoming condos, they wI'll become regular apartment buildings.
Omg my new tenant is a crazy hypochondriac who claims there are smells and mold everywhere but I swear to god it's not true!!!! I cant get rid of her please send help
They are all doing the budget will balance itself routine.😢
Development is mostly provincial and municipal…the federal gov supplies the means for some to qualify for mortgages..ie CMHC that gives banks the ability to loan to borrowers that would normally not qualify at good rates…THIS is not a Canadian phenomenon regardless of what some so called experts typify. Extended high rates will sort out the mess…I know too many middle class people that own multiple properties leveraged to the hilt and they will be hit hard…as well as investors buying 50 prebuilt condo units. Interest rates will still rise because the American economy is still motoring along and our fed policy is dictated by theirs regardless of our ego. It will be interesting times and for some surprising because it does not fit their narrative…carry on.
I think if the housing was not growing so crazy over the last few years, we would not have so much business for realtors, and no one would be watching these shows either. A lot of Canadians had a good life over the last15 years or more due to the housing. Most home owners and realtors should be grateful to the great housing bull run. Having said that, up to now, all governments have done is on the demand side, shorter amortization schedules, stress test, taxes on assigments, foreign buyers tax and so on. Not much is done on the supply side. Get the supply up fast, and I read an article which argued that federal governments having comtrols over development approval gets more houses built, as municiple governments are easily influenced by NIMBYism and other interests. Also, the housint problem is far older than higher immigration levels. The house prices were still okay until the interest rates dropped to near zero. Now the prices are not rising despite the high immigration. People are renting instead of buying due to the rates. Great discussion overall and you touched on a lot of very relevant aspects.
Trudeao is in or out does not make any difference as damage is already done and nobody can contain it
Wait, wait wait. You mean if you bring in 1,000,000 people per year and there's only 250,000 houses being made that DOESN'T = RACISIM? Let me check my math here.
1,000,000/250,000 = RACISIM.
No I'm right! 🤣
I’m looking at investing in Capitol direct who need money to lend to people in over their head thanks to being sold a bill of goods by realtors, so thanks.
It's apparent to anyone who looks into this that ALL of of political parties share blame for the housing crisis.
They re note tone deaf Steve. They re following their orders. They re owned...
John looks sad when his boy JT got disrespected by Steve. ie. 8 years in power and still looking for a scapegoat. jokes lol.
Canada needs a population boom to secure their own fresh water rights, from our "friends" down south in the future....and every other natural resource in our border. We should not be slowing down growth in population just because a few people cry for cheap land...................when Canada has plenty of cheap land, but those complainers don't want to move.
Steve can permabull me any day. ::hides eyes::
The bull's got trapped by the dip in prices and now we're going to see inventory SKYROCKET and 2024 will be an epic and much needed crash.
PS rent prices are also going to tank ...
You’re dreaming!! Too much demand out here. Don’t keep wishing on a shooting star. You’ll be disappointed
The biggest problem in Canada is jurisdictional issues. The levels of government do not cooperate with each other. Otherwise, Canada is a great country with tons of potential. Immigration is a need as low fertility and huge retirements are coming down the road.
Growing by 1.2 mil a year is far more than replacement and we are not building enough homes to account for this.