An Abnormally Slow Spring Market + Is a Condo Sell Off Coming? Real Estate Roundtable May 2024
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
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0:00 Intro
0:55 Vancouver + Toronto Market Update
11:30 Did a Delayed Rate Cut Cool the Market?
20:05 New Condo Sales Slump
35:30 Is a Condo Sell Off Coming?
48:17 Will Investors Make Housing More Volatile?
It’s really springtime and we’re here with our May Toronto-Vancouver real estate roundtable with Urmi, Steve and John!
In what should normally be the busiest real estate market of the year, John and Steve explain slow conditions in Toronto and Vancouver - with some nuanced trends. Demand for low-rise homes is low but listings are only rising from a historic low, so it’s a bit of a stalemate still peppered with some bidding wars. On the condo side, listings are climbing - and new condo sales are way down, is this the start of a longer condo market dip? Also: how much have delayed interest rate cuts and revised forecasts calling for rates to stay higher longer impacting the market?
Contact Us
Follow Steve on X-Twitter @SteveSaretsky; Email at: steve@stevesaretsky.com
Follow John on X-Twitter @JohnPasalis; Email at: askjohn@movesmartly.com
Follow Urmi on X-Twitter @MoveSmartly; Email at: editor@movesmartly.com
About This Roundtable Series
Each month, Move Smartly.com editor, Urmi Desai, talks to John Pasalis, Housing Analyst, Broker and President of Realosophy Realty in Toronto, and Steve Saretsky, Housing Analyst and Realtor at the Oakwin Realty Group at Oakwin Realty in Vancouver about the latest data and on-the-ground insights in Canada's biggest residential RE markets. (Thanks to Jesse Bains, now at Linked In News, for kicking off this series at Yahoo Finance originally!)
About This Show
The Move Smartly show is co-hosted by Urmi Desai, Editor of Move Smartly, and John Pasalis, President and Broker of Realosophy Realty. MoveSmartly.com and its media channels on RUclips and various podcast platforms are powered by Realosophy Realty in Toronto, Canada.
You can also watch this episode on our MoveSmartly RUclips channel here:
/ movesmartly
If you enjoy our show and find it useful, please like, subscribe, share, review and comment on whatever platform you are watching or listening to us from - we appreciate your support!
Sold my rental property in two weeks. And avoided the June 25 capital gains increase! 😅
What now? Bitcoin?
Can't blame u... who wants to pay extra taxes when the country is so mismanaged and corrupt it's disgusting
The debt-to-income ratio in Canada is close to 1:1.8. That’s a buck eighty spent on every dollar earned. The sell off has already begun. With the capital gains tax on top of it, we’re headed into choppy waters. We have one of the most overpriced RE markets on earth. If the recent US court case against realtors is any indication, the situation here is about to change in favour of buyers. It’s about bloody time.
More than the interest rates it is the ridiculous prices that is the issue at hand. Look at the average household income versus mortgage on an average home, with taxes and other expenses, what percentage of the population can shell out over 5 to 8k every month for 25 years!
That chart showing the drop in first time buyers vs explosion of investors is downright depressing.
That chart only covers 2015-2017, so it's not clear whether that trend persisted in the last 7 years
It got worse
14:32 is bang on. Everyone is thinking the rate cut will benefit them. Buyers thinking lower monthly payment, but then sellers saying prices to the moon once rates drop. Both can’t be right!!
I'm watching. 😊 Planning to move shortly and value the information in your discussions.
One immigration thing people are not taking into account is the fact that the government is not just decreasing the number of international students, but also not allowing their spouses to work, which was the primary strategy to come to Canada and be able to afford it while studying. This used to give the spousal a Canadian experience which was used to apply for Permanent Residency. Only Master's degree students will be exempt from this rule.
Canada's way of saying we want rich immigrants and high skill workers.
This is one way to lower immigration demands.
Great show - thank you guys!
I think there is tremendous downside risk in real estate prices in Canada. If the BoC is cutting rates 6 times, think about why they would be doing that.
Cutting rates 6 times doesn't mean much if each cut is only 25 basis points. And as the folks point out in the video, mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, not the BoC rate.
We went from 6 cuts to may be 2 lol. I call rate increase in September.
Now with the foreign buyers out and the decrease in international students and permanent residents plus high interest rates, and all negative government interventions, the real estate market is really doomed. Price will further decline month over month. More and more people are leaving the Canadian market permanently and go to nicer, friendlier countries where your money goes a long way....
All the bulls don't realize how many under-40 (pre-prime earning years) Canadian citizens are looking at moving their tax residency elsewhere from this frozen non-innovating socialist backwater. This is the monster lurking in the weeds (in addition to what you've mentioned).
The reality of condos not appreciating for the foreseeable future will kill the condo market .
It's already in a long coma....
Anyone buying presale right now risks having their money tied up in a project that might not break ground for a while, no?
Worse than that, they risk losing their money to builders going bankrupt.
Do condo townhouses follow the same price and listing trend as condo apartments?
Great discussion. Appreciate you guys keeping me informed
Regarding policies designed to mitigate price declines: I would prefer less policy involvement in the resale and in the rental market. Let the over-leveraged go belly up and stop trying to force the private sector to provide subsidized housing via rent control. Too many unintended consequences/inefficiencies as a result of policy makers trying to micromanage. Let the market sort shit out as much as possible (obv we need some regulation, but gov’t involvement is way beyond optimal now).
Fantastic discussion. Look forward each month to this podcast. Looks like trouble coming to RE market in next few months..years....maybe opportunities?
@paulinebowen5170 - Thanks for watching and your support! ~ Urmi
Just wondering how the new capital gains regulations will affect the condo resell market?
To get a decent house (around 2000 sq ft) you need a household income of around 200k, what portion of canadians make that?
Fake income statements, it is more prevalent than anyone thinks
As a potential move up buyer and condo seller, i am frozen since i need rates to go down to at least breakeven when selling my condo. I think alot of other people are probably in the same scenario.
All this talk about interest rates and no mention of employment. Central banks don't raise or lower rates in a vacuum. Lower rates don't usually mean "woo, people can afford houses now" or "woo, people can sell houses for more now." Lower rates almost always mean jobs are rapidly disappearing and businesses are going bankrupt. Just because rapid job disappearance didn't mean less money in people's pockets during covid, doesn't mean the gov't will be sending everyone thousands of dollars every month when the next recession hits.
@@bobwinters5572The problem is that the US government made the mistake of keeping rates low when the economy was booming, which isn’t something that typically happens. They were able to get away with it in the 2010s due to massive offshoring which kept inflation in check. Everyone now believes that this is normal, even though it was likely a once in a lifetime event. Inflation will simply rear its ugly head if we try to lower rates too much unless the economy is in shambles.
AI might play the role in the future that offshoring did in the past, but not on time for this cycle. We’re in a recession now, and it remains to be seen if we’ll rip off the remaining bandaid, and endure quick pain, or just keep slowing pulling and suffering through it.
Ppl are flocking to Calgary recently but the unemployment rate is higher and higher, 7.7% now. Ppl cannot find a job . I want to see how they are going to do in Calgary , stay or leave with no job opportunities.
Steve is in a good mood. Surprise!
Coz it’s sunny !
So the permanent immigration target is 500k plus 300k in "Temp residents" EACH YEAR . We only build 200k homes a year as a nation.... I'd still be bullish on housing if I had property. The demand is still through the roof, its just that certain markets like Toronto and Vancouver are unaffordable in terms of price.
Wrong! That is not the target. And the target is not permanent. The government can change it in 5 minutes. It doesn't need any new legislation or parliamentary approval to do that. The next conservative government will drastically cut it.
The chart at 49:00 only covers 2015-2017. That was 6.5 years ago! Did the trend continue?
Nature is healing.
The flipside in this theoretical condo crunch is high unemployment of tradesman will lead to lower wages, lower wages will shrink the building companies' bottom line by quite a bit and could allow them to build and sell homes more cheaply. There's a ton of demand for housing, just not at these sky-high prices.
That's exactly the end result that higher interest rates are supposed to create.
Just takes a few years.
@@user-vi8ci2bi6b Yeah people haven't waited long enough in general. They seem to forget that every time the BoC raises rates there's a lag of ~10-14 months before the economy feels the full effect. The last rate hike in July hasn't even had the full effects filtered through to the economy yet. Downward cost pressure on builders and building materials in general is just starting to pick up now seemingly.
People can take a lot of pain when they can't just toss in the keys.
Man Steve saw the house u sold on Georgia st for 1.6 maaan should told me I would bought it
my take:
China's wealth fueled by the biggest real estate bubble of all time with the government deeply intertwined in it, exacerbating the problem.
This unnatural wealth spilled out of China and into other global re markets wherever Chinese citizens are involved and expat themselves to and invest like the USA, Australia, New Zealand and Canada...
this new inflow of capital was enough to destabilize traditionally very stable and predictable markets.
makes sense if a market is stable, add anything to it and it will logically lose it's stability.
Now that the Chinese RE bubble popped, taking the air out of all RE bubbles they created around the world.
The collapse is already massive in China, sucking back in all the excess...
And now the fire has been extinguished from traditionally sleepy markets.
What fueled the bubbles isn't there anymore, like taking the foundation, the legs from under the table.
So all these international RE bubbles are now suspended, hanging in the air like Wile E Coyote, before what seems to be an inevitable free fall of a scale never seen before.
Government and people will try to slowdown the fall as much as they can, but there are no real safety nets below.
it seems it will be a race to the bottom and a painful landing unless some miracle happens
I agree with this take. This played a role for sure and look at Evergrande much of this wealth was fraud. Canada was mostly safe in that era as well now the area these people frequented: Victoria, Vancouver, Toronto is destabilizing a bit. Canada is not that attractive at the moment. I'm not saying it's over for Canada but there is a clear change in the quality of life. Car thefts are through the roof for example.
There are very few if any Chinese immigrants in the Nordics, yet we have experienced the same rise in real estate prices... Its just the low rates.
@@hanswhite8620
not necessarily, I'm not saying it's the only factor and that low rates are not an important factor,
But the facts the Nordics or somewhere else experienced a bubble as well could still be more ripples of the tsunami of artificial wealth that has spilled out of China, the secondary waves of new rich benefitting from the secondary bubbles in Canada, Australia etc..., now pouring their own overflowing wealth in other markets, shifting their balance...
The bubble in Germany would affect the Nordics
RAISE THE RATES
The big thing is unemployment
Not inflation
Have you seen the price of gold? It’s definitely an inflation story too
@@-Nab- that is not what i am saying
I am sayimg they will cut not because if inflation but because of high unemployment
@@Relaxlifeisshort2 sorry I misunderstood
Yes I think they will cut because of unemployment even if inflation remains sticky
Stagflation all written over it
$2500 per sq ft. Yikes.
Only speculators need to worry, those in for the long run have really nothing to worry about imo
True.
As long as you didn't tap into your equity
I suggest looking at nz…. They implemented multi family across the board like Canada. Now it’s considered affordable… when rental rates drop and you can can still cash flow, long term looks good. If you can’t, long term is now questionable
Greed is addictive.
There’s a reason we have rate cuts that many don’t understand. Economy might be tanking and higher unemployment. Do rational people normally buy houses when unemployment is high and the economy is bad?
The answer is NO.
Every recession I've lived through (and I'm old) the bottom of the housing market is 2 years after the first rate cut.
The answer is you’re absolutely WRONG.
Your age doesn’t make you knowledgeable lol.. in fact, it has no bearing on the issue.
RE markets across the world go through ups and downs… but Canada is different? Low rates and speculative buyers are the ones that have let the Canadian re market thrive.
RE prices and rental rates have a breaking point… and we seem to have touched it now. Only a fool would think it can just keep going up…EVERYTHING has a limit and people will be forced to stay out of buying or they’ll realize it’s cheaper to rent.
The government and economists have said the rates will stay high… minimal rate cuts if any. So any speculative investor won’t be jumping back in anytime soon.
The builders can’t just sit out forever, they got payroll, shareholders and other expenses to worry about. Sure, they can wait it out temporarily or they can realize that the massive profit margins are a thing of the past.
Btw, nz implemented multi family zoning across the board and it brought down housing prices and rental rates, now, they are the beacon of affordable housing. They went through a little pain too
When prices do drop and rental rates drop due to more multi families being built…those of us with rental properties need to consider if we will still have cash flow in our investment properties when this happens. You need to seriously consider selling now…
btw, this is one of the reasons that apartment sales/prices are dropping. You add the mortgage, property taxes, property management, cap ex, insurance, PLUS the condo fees and your investment won’t cash flow.
I’m old too… but I don’t use it as an excuse for credibility.
Rate cuts would be the worst. They need to be higher. BOC job is not to see if houses sell lol. How old are you? Did you live through 89?
Oct of 87 the stock market crashed (black Monday it was tagged) and sent a ripple effect through Canada and the US.
Mass layoffs followed, can't remember what it did to property values but I'm sure it wasn't good.
Hey Steve, we have had enough of passive income. Get ready to roll up your sleeves for some active income.
Twinkie bet on number of new home starts in 2024 😅😅
All this talk about interest rates and no mention of employment. Central banks don't raise or lower rates in a vacuum. Lower rates don't usually mean "woo, people can afford houses now" or "woo, people can sell houses for more now." Lower rates almost always mean jobs are rapidly disappearing and businesses are going bankrupt. Just because rapid job disappearance didn't mean less money in people's pockets during covid, doesn't mean the gov't will be sending everyone thousands of dollars every month when the next recession hits.
I think investors should always put their cash to work, especially In 2024, we'll start to see more market diversification. I'm hoping to invest about $350k of my savings in stocks against next year. Hope to make millions in 2024
Since risk is at an all-time high right now, perhaps you should be a little more patient and return when it has decreased. Alternatively, you can consult a trained financial expert for strategy.
Unusually slow 😂
This is perfect! There needs to be pain before any gain. Pricing is high, rental rates are high and construction costs are high…speculators and investors need to know that nothing continuously rises. Rates need to stay high rental rates need to drop and construction costs drop followed by home prices dropping
unlikely to happen because demand exceeds the supply.
It is hard for home prices to be lower due to high cost.
Land, labor, material, interest, and tax is high; how can it go cheaper?
Even if the seller offer their units cheaper, buyers will bid it until it reaches market pricing.
I have been waiting for the housing price to crash since 2008 and I can tell you it will not happen.
@@kellyhou9594 I’d advise you to hold off… events are changing things right before your eyes. You need to look ahead instead of being preoccupied with the immediate:
1) multi family zoning across Canada. NZ implemented this and it brought down their rental rates and housing prices.
2) interest rates aren’t going back down to covid levels, low interest rates are a thing of the past. It might drop 100 points, that’s not a game changer
3) capital gains tax, say goodbye to the flippers and investors. With mortgages being so high, rental income doesn’t cover their expenses. A lot of them will be forced to sell. Look at apartments now… those are the lower income investors whose rental incomes can’t cover their mortgages. Inventory is high and still nobody is buying.
4). Immigration is being cut, mainly focusing on temporary and students residents. Rents are already dropping or there’s incentives like 1 month free.
5) steady supply of prebuilt condos that will be ready this year and the next. All the investors are already trying to sell, but they can’t and this means a lot more rental properties entering the market. Rates already dropping and this will lower rates. Investors will be forced to sell
6) refinancing new mortgages at higher interest rates, a lot of buyers who bought at the top enjoyed the low rates. When they refinance at higher prices, they will be forced to sell… not all, but enough
7). Application for new developments has stalled, when this happens, the natural step is for the builders, contractors, manufacturers and suppliers to start lowering their prices to actually compete for new business.
This means lower building costs.
8) lower building costs = lower prices to build a home than to buy. For investors, why build a single family home when you can now build a multifamily? More multi family homes means more properties available to rent = lower rental prices.
9) look at Canada’s population, its dwindling…. There’s actually not enough kids being born = less buyers and more properties available for rent or purchase
10) aging population, the baby boomers make up about 27% of the population. Relatively speaking, a high majority own homes and those will come onto the market
Now is an awful time to buy, don’t get caught up in the FMO…. Wait to see how this plays out, if this apartment inventory continues to go up and rental rates go down, this will trickle down to single family homes. Prices will drop.
NOTHING EVER continues to go up in price…. Nothing! It will eventually bottom out. The only thing that kept the prices high are speculators and low interest rates. That’s why you’ve only seen prices go up…. Now that interest rates will stay high, speculators will think twice and look for better options. If rental rates lower, all investors living off rental incomes will need to sell.
And for long term investments… what do you think will happen to real estate prices when the population doesn’t increase and actually starts dropping?
There is a limit to how much people can afford to pay… we reached it or are very close to it Not only this, another factor for prices to stay high is because renting a place is so expensive. When renting becomes cheaper than owning and you have more rental options, you’ll see prices dropping soon after.