Caly can win if it gets a double protect or if it predicts tera grass from incin and pollen puffs incin the turn it knocks out caly, or if it gets a crit on the turn it gets knock offed. Ngl it can go both ways as a mind game. Edit: I forgot incin has sitrus, wld prob try to double protect with caly since it has better odds than rolling for crits
Assuming it's a 252/100 impish incin, amoongus needs one of the pollen puffs to crit and neither to low roll in order to 2HKO, otherwise incin survives. High roll crit is 51.4%, just shy of incin's 52%. It's possible to win if the double protect doesn't go off but it's pretty slim.
Incineroar is usually ran with good special defense investment, and he still had a sitrus berry. Amoongus doesn't do enough damage to 2HKO it, it'd be a 3HKO instead
@@KanderUdon That's the thing, actually. In a puzzle, you try to use any piece of information you have access to, and you extrapolate the rest. You can't expect the Amoonguss to be 252 SPATK EVs, nor the Glastrier to be max speed. You need to base your expectations on what you can assume to be a "common" set. Which would be bulky Incineroar, defensive amoonguss, and slow Glastrier for trick room, which the other mons in the opponent's team seem to work well with
@@lertik3898 i just disagree here on every point. We know the stats of amoongus and caly ice we are shown them. Its also like not uncommon at all for incin to be ran without much special defense. Like literally the most common set in reg G had no special defense investment. But even with all this I still just don’t agree that we should be basing our assumptions on metagame trends. Its like in a chess puzzle: you have to assume your opponent will make the best possible move. In these you have to assume the worst outcome.
@@KanderUdon Agree to disagree, then. The reason why we know Amoongus and Caly's stats are purely because the video was from their perspective. We did not have such details about Incineroar. As for the special defense, even without much special bulk it's unlikely for Amoongus to do enough damage for a 2HKO through sitrus berry. Yes, in a puzzle, you have to assume they'll make the best possible move. But Pokemon is also an information game, and you need to use what information you have, and have an educated guess for the information you do not have yet. My personal educated guess is based around the commonly used sets, but yours could be from other sources
Just wondering since this is really the only play the Incineroar can do to win, could the Calyrex team predict that and go for high horsepower + pollen puff? Would Incineroar still win?
Incins are always faster than calys usually, so caly will always die unless they go for double protect plus pollen puff predicting the Tera and get the double they could win, but because Incin has sitrus berry unless there’s also a crit involved Incin will always win even if they puff predicting the Tera
If caly successfully gets a double protect and amoonguss predicts the tera from incin and pollen puffs incin, that means incin will go down to 2 more pollen puffs after consuming sitrus. The game is winnable for caly's side from that point on with caly just fainting the subsequent turn (2nd pollen puff onto incin) and amoonguss tanking a knock off after that (3rd pollen puff kos incin).
High Horsepower + Pollen Puff was the play I thought of too. I did the damage calc after, and it's technically possible depending on ev spreads for the amoongus to 2 shot through sitrus. You need a bit of Sp.A investment though.
Doesn’t this depend on speed stats? It’s possible for the Incin to be slower than Calyrex. So, VGC puzzle - what’s the best move for the Calyrex team if Incin is slower? I think it’s Glacial Lance + Rage Powder. If Incin Teras then it loses, if it doesn’t Tera then it lives the hit but Calyrex has a second attempt next turn. Unsure what is optimal second turn, probably a coin-flip prediction. The other option is Glacial Lance plus Spore. Same theory but this time if Incin doesn’t Tera it takes out Caly before going to sleep, giving Amoongus the chance to win with Pollen Puff.
So THAT'S why a lot of mons run Tera Grass in VGC
and also for Spore immunity
Yeah, the Spore immunity was relevant in the puzzle as well
pollen puff from amoonguss is optional here. You should assume that incin is going to tera.
I’m always gonna say Incin clutch cause I know that boy is goated
Caly can win if it gets a double protect or if it predicts tera grass from incin and pollen puffs incin the turn it knocks out caly, or if it gets a crit on the turn it gets knock offed. Ngl it can go both ways as a mind game.
Edit: I forgot incin has sitrus, wld prob try to double protect with caly since it has better odds than rolling for crits
Assuming it's a 252/100 impish incin, amoongus needs one of the pollen puffs to crit and neither to low roll in order to 2HKO, otherwise incin survives. High roll crit is 51.4%, just shy of incin's 52%. It's possible to win if the double protect doesn't go off but it's pretty slim.
@@teslobo I think best odds would be to go for the “triple protect” because it used protect last turn. 1/9 is better than crit odds
I hate incin but I hate amoogus and the calyrexes even more so this is a w for me
this one felt very easy, I suppose people might not know about tera grass
Flare blitz is optional, since you need to knock yourself into sitrus berry range to prevent amoongus pollen puff crit from koing you
If amoongus goes for pollen puff it can 2HKO though. This is simply a prediction game right?
Incineroar is usually ran with good special defense investment, and he still had a sitrus berry. Amoongus doesn't do enough damage to 2HKO it, it'd be a 3HKO instead
@@lertik3898 usually yes, but in a puzzle we can’t rely on stuff like metagame trends it has to be absolute
@@KanderUdon That's the thing, actually. In a puzzle, you try to use any piece of information you have access to, and you extrapolate the rest. You can't expect the Amoonguss to be 252 SPATK EVs, nor the Glastrier to be max speed. You need to base your expectations on what you can assume to be a "common" set. Which would be bulky Incineroar, defensive amoonguss, and slow Glastrier for trick room, which the other mons in the opponent's team seem to work well with
@@lertik3898 i just disagree here on every point. We know the stats of amoongus and caly ice we are shown them. Its also like not uncommon at all for incin to be ran without much special defense. Like literally the most common set in reg G had no special defense investment. But even with all this I still just don’t agree that we should be basing our assumptions on metagame trends. Its like in a chess puzzle: you have to assume your opponent will make the best possible move. In these you have to assume the worst outcome.
@@KanderUdon Agree to disagree, then. The reason why we know Amoongus and Caly's stats are purely because the video was from their perspective. We did not have such details about Incineroar. As for the special defense, even without much special bulk it's unlikely for Amoongus to do enough damage for a 2HKO through sitrus berry.
Yes, in a puzzle, you have to assume they'll make the best possible move. But Pokemon is also an information game, and you need to use what information you have, and have an educated guess for the information you do not have yet. My personal educated guess is based around the commonly used sets, but yours could be from other sources
what if mungus had pollen puffed into incin
nvm it wouldn,t have done enough damage anyway
the only play for caly side was to try the double protect and attack with guss but still i think inci would have won
daddy incineroar always wins so its easy
Just wondering since this is really the only play the Incineroar can do to win, could the Calyrex team predict that and go for high horsepower + pollen puff? Would Incineroar still win?
Incins are always faster than calys usually, so caly will always die unless they go for double protect plus pollen puff predicting the Tera and get the double they could win, but because Incin has sitrus berry unless there’s also a crit involved Incin will always win even if they puff predicting the Tera
If caly successfully gets a double protect and amoonguss predicts the tera from incin and pollen puffs incin, that means incin will go down to 2 more pollen puffs after consuming sitrus. The game is winnable for caly's side from that point on with caly just fainting the subsequent turn (2nd pollen puff onto incin) and amoonguss tanking a knock off after that (3rd pollen puff kos incin).
High Horsepower + Pollen Puff was the play I thought of too. I did the damage calc after, and it's technically possible depending on ev spreads for the amoongus to 2 shot through sitrus. You need a bit of Sp.A investment though.
Doesn’t this depend on speed stats? It’s possible for the Incin to be slower than Calyrex.
So, VGC puzzle - what’s the best move for the Calyrex team if Incin is slower? I think it’s Glacial Lance + Rage Powder. If Incin Teras then it loses, if it doesn’t Tera then it lives the hit but Calyrex has a second attempt next turn. Unsure what is optimal second turn, probably a coin-flip prediction.
The other option is Glacial Lance plus Spore. Same theory but this time if Incin doesn’t Tera it takes out Caly before going to sleep, giving Amoongus the chance to win with Pollen Puff.