I WAS WRONG! Intel's Crazy Plan to Dominate AI Chips is Working
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- Опубликовано: 4 ноя 2023
- I was wrong about Intel. #intel ( #intc stock ) is on track to make one of the biggest comebacks in Silicon Valley history. Let's break down their aggressive plans to dominate the AI race that #openai kicked off when they launched #chatgpt , how it’s going so far, and whether Intel could actually be one of the best #stocks to buy now. Is Intel about to become the next #nvidia ( #nvda stock )?
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Simply Wall Street's Intel (INTC Stock) Valuation: simplywall.st/stocks/us/semic...
Simply Wall Street's Nvidia (NVDA Stock) Valuation: simplywall.st/stocks/us/semic...
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Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Stock) Valuation: simplywall.st/stocks/us/semic...
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📝 Resources & References 📝
@markets Intel CEO Gelsinger: We're Clearly Coming Back: • Intel CEO Gelsinger: W...
@markets Nvidia to Challenge Intel With Arm-Based Chips for PCs: • Nvidia to Challenge In...
@TheVerge Nvidia and AMD plan to launch Arm PC chips as soon as 2025: www.theverge.com/2023/10/23/2...
TSMC Throws Shade At Intel's 18A Node As Being Inferior To Its 2nm Chip Tech: hothardware.com/news/tsmc-thr...
Intel retakes some CPU market share from AMD as CPU shipments tick upwards: www.pcgamer.com/intel-retakes...
@Intel Q3 2023 earnings call (INTC stock): www.intc.com/news-events/ir-c...
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🙏 Thanks for watching! 
Наука
full support of US Gov behind Intel gives me confidence
Talk is cheap. Show me the money. NOW
Agree. And with the sec'y of commerce coming out on Monday saying that UNcle Sam is 100% behind Intel to see it through, I like the safety net even more.
This unfortunately relying on the government is a death sentence for Intel. There is no drive to improve when feeding off of the government tit. Look at our education system and inner cities.
It's just a dream, for intel.
In Taiwan it Japan, build a new FAB takes 18 mobths, in US, that's 5 bloody years(if everything on skedual).
In tsmc, develop engineers work by 3 shifts. And Intel?
Intel has no gas left in tank but big mouth.
0:40 "About 8 years ago, Intel stopped following Moore's law, and started following Murphy's law instead", fell out of chair laughing haha so true:D
The best thing Intel could realistically do is to use 1/3 of its cash and short-term loan to buy back its stocks, the other 1/3 for dismissing 50% of its early retiring aged and redundant headcount, and the remaining 1/3 to invest in Qualcomm/ARM and even NVDA for licensing arrangements. At this stage USG will surely print and send $50- 100 Bn more as an emergency rescue fund (as it has done for Ford and GM years ago)…for a new Intel. This is the only way.
As a stock investor: Shareholders DO NOT, I repeat DO NOT want to hear what you're doing for them!!! Shareholders don't want any apologies to them either.
Shareholders want to know your vision and what you're doing to serve your customers and acquire retain your talent. You cannot sail directly into the wind. Similarly, you can't "will" or "resolve to grow" profits. You attain shareholder value indirectly through satisfying and creating customer demand and employee engagement.
could you PLEASE elaborate on how you "create shareholder value through creating employee engagement"?!?!?!?
@@tucoramirez9557 acquiring and retaining talent
I remember when Intel bought Mcaafee for like 7.5B$ because 'the future of chips is having security built in on the chip'. I was so pissed as a shareholder at the time. They could have conceivably bought Nvdia or focused on the actual future of chips: mobile and ai.
Then Nvidia would have gone nowhere though, would they have reached as far? :p
Remember when Intel bought bluetooth?
You can't compare MBA run with engineer Pat run.
@@jointy just hoping gen 14 is the last legacy from the MBA era
Even with that purchase there is ME, Specter and meltdown fiasco?!?
Thank you for marketing for Intel, they are terrible at it. AMD can release an AI chip and make bold claims about billions in sales. Intel can release an AI chip and forget to tell anyone about it.
Intel is too focused on biulding an empire on manufacturing 😂
Yes. Must remember to let the world know that they are into AI.
Team intel lets go intel
Thank you for the info! Really like how you dive into the numbers and show comparisons
Good to see you be honest about everything. Subbed.
Don't forget national defense... TSMC going offline would catastrophic for US, Intel is getting big $ to build plants here in the US with one being in my state of Ohio. As a national security play, INTC will have the US government and military behind them in case supply elsewhere gets limited or stops. Bullish in INTC!
mehh they're just ok dividend stock. Way behind amd and nvdia in the graphic cards sector
I am very curious about the future of the DOD portion of their business.
100%. Intel will never be allowed to fail
Having the government back a business is a death sentence! Everything , I mean everything the government gets involved with is FUBAR!
I haven't laugh so hard in days, that "Intell had replaced Moore's Law with Murphy's Law!" Laughed so hard there are tears in my eyes. Thumbs UP! and a minute has not yet gone by.
Really happy for them honestly. They’re facing all the mighty Thors and still going strong.
Great job! You really have a handle on that business and it's a very difficult one to get a grip on.
If you have been following Intel and their technology for the past several decades, you know that Intel has completely failed to deliver on their technology roadmaps for the last seven years. The gap between Intel's latest and greatest to AMD chiplets, stacked caches, and TSMC world-leading process has grown to be very substantial. Good luck to Intel returning to producing competitive tech. It would be a turn-around miracle if it happens. But my advice is, don't hold your breath.
This comment is correct. Intel is getting government handouts/loans like Chrysler in the mid 80s.
Great video on the science behind the stocks! I wouldn't have mind a longer video. Great content man! :)
Glad you liked it! Thank you!
@@TickerSymbolYOU You left out one important part on the tech side of things, x86 processors are a dying technology due to the ARMs architecture’s superior performance-to-watt ratio (meaning delivering on par performance at a significantly lower power draw (and temperature), and especially since Intel is struggling to make 5nm X86 chips when TSMC is already delivering 3nm AMD chips for Apple and Qualcomm is expanding into the desktop and laptop space with their Snapdragon ARM chips, just like Apple went from their A series chips to M series for Laptop and desktop. It is my conviction that ARM is the future thanks to its great performance-to-watt ratio. The AI interference talk sounds good but it is not a moat against Qualcomm or AMD. I’m sure Intel has some upside but I’m just not sure that is where I would invest right now. Just my five cents.
Excellent review: I have been accumulating NVIDIA and MSFT since Feb 2023 - added INTC in September with a but:
- equity I am a believer with a lookout in Asia development.
- usage-wise as well but also I am dumping 2024 my Apple addiction MacBook Pro and will opt for an AIgen and graphic capable PC Alienware but Horizon 2024 to act in or for me.
It is a safe bet and also a great shift is taking place. Intel needs to show some results first. Thx for the video overview - very good 👍
"I was wrong about Intel." Glad we can humble ourselves. Intel should never be over looked.
Lovely seeing non tech people see some roadmaps and thinking they will happen. Trust me, they never do.
Are you a tech person?
AMD is actually down in the x86 in the DIY market. For the first time since the Athlon 64 days AMD has over 50% of the market as of Oct 21 2023. AMD is also putting 50 TOPS in each of their upcoming chips along with 4-12 CU GPUs in the 8K APU lineup. They (Intel) are also selling their chips to consumers at what is apparently almost cost after all of the packaging, shipping etc etc is taken into account. Making matters worse on every front isthe performance lift coming from AMD which, as of now, has gone from a tolerable 5% increase in most general PC tasks to over 25% in high compute workloads (video games, editing and so on) with single core and over 40% in multi-core functions. That's engineering samples as well, so a lot more is expected out of said CPU's. With Intel's recently released 14 series I'm not sure how well they can compete unless their manufacturing allows them to *DROP* prices while attaining higher margins as it appears that Lisa Su and AMD are about to pull a *_"Core 2"_* on the Blue team, dominating in AI, Graphics (the gen following 8K from AMD is looking at 150 TOPS and 40 CU's on their their x800X class CPU) and x86 single and multi-core by a large, and I don't mean 5%, 7% or even 9% margin. I mean like 15%-45% increases in single and multi-core while using less energy.
I hope you're right about your outlook as AMD could pull an Intel and jack prices through the roof across the board if you aren't. I love the PC tech sectors, and having one company dominating any segment is *AWFUL* for everyone. Whether that's x86, x64 Graphics, memory and/or storage and apparently now AI with Windows 12 rumored to require 50 TOPS to run properly. Intel has it's work cut out for itself. I'm really hoping that they can pull off a miracle on the GPU front, and giving up on Arc *I* think would be a *HUGE* mistake. It could very well be the key to their success moving forward, and with drivers getting better and better, dollar for dollar they might be the best option on the market right now with their A580 and A750's (16GB, not 8GB). Also, you never know when the market will decide we need an x64 mineable crypto currency again. With the way the US, Canada, China, India, the UK, Germany...err, a good portion of the world's fiat, look at the moment, that time could be sooner than later. A $0.0057 coin could jump to $3 overnight, or a new one that isn't a scam could very well happen. From a user standpoint I hate that idea, from an investor standpoint I'm skeptical, but from someone who is worried about an economic collapse? On that front, although I hate to admit it, I'm almost hopeful. I'd rather pay the bills with a bunch of GPUs than I would chopping down all the trees in my backyard and cutting them up for firewood to trade for goods and services if we end up in a depression again. With UBI seemingly around the corner by necessity, a new affordable currency may turn out to be a good thing.
PS I prefer long, more thorough videos so no worries there superfly.
I'm not so worried about AMD because the slowdown in the PC market was predicted a couple years ago and has in fact played out almost exactly like it was predicted and the main thing AMD had to do was survive it.
Personally, I GREATLY benefited from their low pricing on Zen 3 as I've been filling up an IC (Internet Cafe) in the Philippines using it because it's high quality and excellent in performance AND low power.
For server AMD has good market share for anything non-AI, but with the hardware they just released there is both Microsoft and Google saying they're buying it and part of this is not feeding the Nvidia beast. So there are plenty of companies that see Nvidia as taking too much profit margin making it very expensive for them developing their AI technology and are using AMD AI acceleration for servers.
What there isn't anymore is the big rush to AMD EPYC because a lot of server hardware has already been replaced. There was a big rush and maybe AMD needed to make more money than they did off of say Zen 2 - 3 EPYC which is where AMD really made money.
Zen 5 will improve on Zen 4, probably not enough so I doubt it will be big for them. The key is going to be what happens with Zen 6. AMD HAS to improve their MCM architecture. Zen 6 could be another Zen 2/3 moment for AMD, and it needs to be.
I don't see Intel cutting into the server market very much unless they use TSMC die because right now their "Intel 4" process node is still new and the only thing they could put out for the upcoming year is laptop parts.
And this is EUV. That's the bad part about this for Intel. It's taken FOREVER for Intel to get onto EUV. Their Intel 7 node uses DUV STILL.
So for Intel, they're still trying to get onto EUV with high speed die such as desktop CPUs, AND they have probably already gotten their first shipment of High-NA EUV equipment from ASML because they were supposed to get it this fall. So they're dealing with 2 different technologies at the same time. And I don't think TSMC wants to allow Intel to buy up large chunks of new process node production which would push AMD out of the market. Intel wants to pass TSMC in node production and take part of their business. It's not in TSMC's interest to hurt Intel competitors.
That's my brief take on this. AMD needs to put out something serious with Zen 6. Zen 5 will improve their core architecture and make other improvements, but Zen 6 needs to be a complete change to their MCM architecture and build on their chiplet design in a much better way than they have right now and that would also mean moving to direct connects for at LEAST desktop parts and away from their infinity fabric which uses a multiplexer on the IO Die to gate data to where it needs to go. That's too slow.
@@johndoh5182and their server and and ai chip still thriving especially with recent releases mi300 series yeah they doing fine
Completely agree, great points
I don't understand where the value of Crypto Currency resides. The value is Assigned by the Miner. No wonder the first Scammers in made a lot of money. It was MONEY FOR NOTHING. Make a thousand million dollar coins and you're an easy Billionaire, except that people KNOW its a Scam. I'd never buy or exchange for any Counterfeited Electronic Coin unless I already had its turnaround set up... Buy and Sell to some ready to go Sucker.
What I saw those last decades is that performances jumps came from miniaturization when we were still above 10 nm. Then optimization. When the gains slow down to 5% or lower between generation, it's when there is no value in upgrading. AMD came up with Zen architecture but it will soon show its limits. Optical chips are still quite far in the future.
The path to Unified Memory can make do for a while, but I'm quite skeptic regarding spectacular jumps in technologies for the next 20 years.
Tech industries explore a lot of path, but I've seen nothing really new.
Lol that Murphy’s Law joke at the start was hilarious 😏👌
your research and presentations are top notch, earned a sub
Great video with a lot of insight on Intel that analysts do not usually cover much! Congrats! I just think to be complete it should include an important competitive advantage that is missing on your Intel's investment case. That is the $50 billion grants Intel is going to receive from USA, Europe and Israeli governments to build 18A and beyond cutting edge tech factories across the Western World. None of Intels competitors will get those grants. That says a lot on the political will to make Intel great again. I would not be surprised if there is an agreement behind the scenes for Apple, Nvidia, Qualcomm and even AMD to manufacture their future cutting edge chips on the new Intel's fabs. I do not think governments would give away $50billion of tax payer's money without such agreement! So much of Intel's investment case is on geopolitics rather than usual business drivers.
Well said, all these developments will take many years to play out but it has potential to change the whole industry for the better. It is essential for the US and our allies to get production out of Taiwan.
I agree 1000% and is the MAIN reason one should buy INTC. This is a national security issue and NVDA, AAPL, AMD etc don't want to be caught with their pants down holding great designs that can't be manufactured. If I had to guess if 5 years from now China occupies Taiwan, just for TSCM, I'd bet absolutely. They are desperate and always behind and will enact desperate measures. Semi-Conductors are the oil of the future and the Gov't knows it and is subsidizing INTC.
Even the Saudis have solar farms. Eisenhower developed the Interstate system for Nat'l securities reasons. I see this exactly the same reasoning we NEED INTC here. TSCM is too big a risk and we are playing on thin ice, geopolitically speaking, every hour bc the CCP army is in ready mode.
Business is business. Only if US became Japan or China could those behind the scene deals be arranged and achieved. The last thing AMD or Qualcomm could do is to subsidize Intel - unless Intel exits its CPU/GPU/chipset businesses.
I love your work but I feel the Nvidia comparisons neglect to consider CUDA application development and InfiniBand / datacenter compute scaling - both considered to be Nvidia moats.
Please speak to these when assessing competition in AI. If they don't matter please explain why.
Thank you for the wonderful perspectives & productions.
Actually, you're completely right and that's a great call out. I agree that Nvidia has a great ecosystem. My point wasn't that Intel would beat Nvidia at Nvidia's game. It was that Intel could become "the Nvidia" of inference at the edge, an equally important market in the future.
whenever analysts especially youtuber start shitting on a company, I immediately start researching that company. One of the rule of true value investing, when a stock gets shit on by everyone, look into it. And I'm glad I did because I bought intel starting from 28$ to 25$ and now I can sell them at 38$. A nice profit in less than a year. ;) The key to profit isn't to buy what everyone else buys and likes, it's to have the balls and tenacity to research and buy most hated companies. :)
Oh wow! Imagine buying NVDA at $167. +170% in less than a year
Its also called lucky. Noone can predict the market. No need to brag about it ❤
It's also a mistake to sell a stock at $38 that can reach $150 by 2027 ;)
You literally underperformed the QQQ.
Users and analysts are still “sh*tting” this company hard. So why sell NOW?😢
what i like most about Intel, they care about ram compatibility and the cpus are top notch, never had an issue since 20 years
I am guessing you tried out Ryzen 1st gen and had lots of issues - I try to stick to intel as well, even if it doesn't quite match AMD's offering.
You mean they can invent new names and new architecture of motherboards every one or two years, so that you can still use your 20 year old RAMs😂?
@@7hx89Fanboy spotted.
This is the type of in-depth details on the semiconductor market that investors need.
I read that Intel is partnering with IBM. Thanks for this informative comparison😊
2 geisers teaming up to die hand in hand 😂
The tech in the low power Meteor Lake is going to serve as the springboard for the next steps, it looks ambitious but a solid plan with further room to grow after. We'll know if they're winning when the 20A chips come out, the numbers seem to work out to nearly a doubling of performance per Watt at the compute level, against the Raptor lake, that would be massive.
Except the word is OEMs testing performance are unhappy, Meteor is scarcely better than Raptor Lake, with performance efficiency only somewhat better over certain parts of the power curve.
The AI performance is not as strong as AMD's 2024 releases either.
This sounds like it could be another execution disaster failing to fulfill the impressive roadmap goals.
Massive on paper. What is the use case? Saving a few watts yet still lagging behind Apple/Qualcomm/ARM, let alone AMD? Xeon is even becoming irrelevant. To be exact CPUs released 10 years ago in 2014 🎉can still deliver 99% of what people need day to day.
@@7hx89 Yep, it's been confirmed Intel talked big and failed to deliver yet again.
Meteor lake turned out to be quite disappointing. Just check reviews, not to good.
please make an updated video about Intel. Thanks, Alex.
good video! You pointed out a lot of interesting strengths with Intel, but I think that their overall strategy is leaving their consumer designs in the dust. While they are ramping up their fabs, their design teams can't do shit in terms of launching anything on time. Meteor Lake was 8 months late, loses to Raptor Lake in single-threaded apps, is literally twice as expensive because of their fancy EMIB and Foveros packaging, Arrow Lake isn't coming out until Q4, Lunar Lake isn't coming out until Q4, and AMD has Zen 5 in Q2. This year is going to be a bloodbath for Intel.
And then when NVDA or AMD designs the next tech busting chip INTC will be another dumpster fire right? I get it....just a little humor. Things change, companies have big leaps forward as well as setbacks. Nice to see INTC fighting well and improving.
Really entertaining, had some good chuckles
I believe their numbers looked bad because they invested so much on the building of foundries to drive down profit, that AMD was winning in the datacenter. I believed in their plan. My fear is the new competition from Nvidia and AMD with ARM deal.
Their reinvestment is very aggressive, which is a good thing for investors - AMD and NVidia are at highs right now, but it it still early days for anyone who wants to buy into Intel.
intel has a licence to make ARM chips and a partnership with RISC-V. so outside of using more advanced TSMC nodes AMD and Nvida have no moves they can make on the CPU side that intel can't counter. if they want to win they can only use GPUs and special accelerators.
@@psionx1 Intel is projected to be on 20 Angstrom before TSMC, apparently NVidia is considering using Intel fabs in the future, Jensen says the roadmap is looking good to go ahead.
That ARM deal may have a major flaw in my opinion; they rely on a third party foundry: TSMC; because neither AMD nor NVIDIA do the actual manufacturing and TSMC is basically full of orders as it is, so theyll have to make the line. Meanwhile Intel, will be able to design and actually manufacture their chips in 2025 using 2nm chips. Iwill follow intel close; their stock may be cheap af, for what could they be in 2 years; also, intel has none of their plants in Taiwan
@@santiagocarreno5881which is really better choice for both of them because they don't need to manage foundry business, they only need focus on design chip.
while intel are stagnant for so many years because their foundry can't produce newer generation foundry
Intel's 14th gen desktop line-up is still raptor-lake based FYI.
First of all, Intels 10nm is actually has a smaller gate size than TSMC 7nm and is closer in size to TSMC 5nm. Intel also owns their own fab, so design changes can be tested much faster. Everything Intel does is in-house.. no other company is on Intel's level.
it's also a really expensive node with mid yields, and their design teams can't do shit in terms of launching anything on time. Meteor Lake was 8 months late, loses to Raptor Lake in single-threaded apps, is literally twice as expensive because of their fancy EMIB and Foveros packaging, Arrow Lake isn't coming out until Q4, Lunar Lake isn't coming out until Q4, and AMD has Zen 5 in Q2. This year is going to be a bloodbath for Intel.
lol amd fanboy@@12100F
yields. dosnt matter how good ur process is if the yields are not competitive.
I bought some Intel stock on this advice. Ooops! 🤣🙈
Maybe I'll rewatch the vid to comfort myself, and tell myself that everything will be okay. 😅
Once intel foundry and ai gpu comes on line , the share might be further rerated up.. if it can compete with nvidia, amd , qualcom
Guess intel was a bargain in the mid 20s
Yeah I loaded up down there bc I was impressed by their neuromorphic computing advances
They are still a bargain at $40. In 2026 this will be obvious ;))
You were right, almost $45 today, only 2 weeks later. @@andrepaes3908
Great info and explaining where Intel is today…..I have included Intel on my considered investments for 2024
Intel’s strategic thinking is inflexible & dated, unable to adapt to challenges to their leader’s beliefs.
They missed out on Apple’s request for a chip for the iPhone because they felt there won’t be many $1000 phones sold. Wrong!
Now they are upset about Apple dumping Intel for their own chips because Intel could not deliver the performance required, which would need ARM RISC architecture rather than the archaic X86 CISC.
Apple showed customers don’t care if the O/S is moved to a different cpu if performance is good.
Intel should see this as the writing on the wall instead of dismissing Apple as niche. Intel already had a brush with the now defunct DEC Alpha, which ran windows NT on an ARM architecture. The only thing that saved Intel was alpha was expensive and DEC went bust. If AMD offers an ARM chip geared to AI, but with x86 compatible mode, something that is partially available for legacy apps on windows, then Intel is in trouble. Oh wait… Qualcomm is planning on delivering ARM chips for Windows on laptops for 2025. This is dependent on Qualcomm settling with ARM over license issues.
Intel has advantages like it’s own fab and PC market share, but their CEO must be drinking buddies with Toyota’s CEO, unable to accept the world has moved on. Or IBM’s Thomas J Watson Jr, in 1943 he believed that '… there is a world market for about five computers. Or saying not many people make weather models, but many use them, truly short sighted. The future use of AI ARM chips as supercomputers isn’t going to be weather models, it will be stuff we can’t imagine but apps will be developed with that much compute available. Who would have thought you could super computer capability surpassing a Cray 2 in your iPhone when Cray was all the rage? Even during the .com boom, the iPhone hadn’t been conceived, but MSFT was already experimenting with windows CE, which still has the best handwriting recognition of smartphones.
So Intel has potential held back by successive lack lustre CEOs.
Nvidia is doing well because it has a infinitely more talented CEO.
So can Toyota the creator of the Prius lead, dominate EV? It could, if there is a new CEO
Can Intel take the lead? Not without a new CEO.
Leather daddy is the tech. tsar. All hail leather daddy
That’s a lot of “ifs” for Intel. I’ll definitely take a wait and see approach.
Intel is like turning around a huge battleship....clunky at best.
This is why I buy ETFs like SOXQ and SMH. Not smart enough to bet on a single chip maker!
Nothing wrong with that!
You were also wrong about WEJO. Is there any chance WEJO will recover?
Thank you for your in depth information as usual
My pleasure!
Intel has a track record failing what they promise 😂😂😂😂.
Great work!
this channel is great. i love your analysis. greetings from buenos aires.
Thank you very much! I’m glad you like the content!
Going to be a tough slog, each tech transition is terribly capital intensive, so much so, that one miss of the market spells disaster. Competitors will be brutal, and drive prices constantly downward.
Intel is going to receive $50 billion in grants from USA, Europe and israeli governments. No other competitor will get that. This is Intel main competitive advantage in the next years to come.
Can't wait in a couple years for the "I was wrong" video about Palantir!
Just came out 😂
I am going with Qualcomm already have TSMC. They are way too far behind in this race and they don’t have a huge moat at all like they did 20 years ago. Thanks for the information on Apple laptops, desktops didn’t even know that. The real profits are in data centers now with huge margins on these products not the client side.
TSMC is great. Until China decides to move.
I knew it was coming i've been buying up their stock for years
Sorry, not convinced about Intel's future. I'll believe it when I see it.
Great overview, thanks
Glad it was helpful!
Any view on Texas Instruments TXN ?
They were typically a divided stock with corporate and government contracts but now have massive FAB investments, potential tax incentives, and future growth.
The stock has been tracking sideways for a couple of years.
This didn't age well 😂
that's because it didn't age.
Ahhahaha he told you if you think a few months is age worthy
Very balanced and solid analysis. Intel may not be able to outperform Nvidia and AMD in the near term, but a rising tide lifts all boats.
They will beat them they have done it in the past! Intel will be the leader again Just watch and learn. The competition is very good! Dismissing Intel is not a good idea especially if you own shares in the other two!
Intel's ability to control RDF in their 18A and beyond nodes will be their key secret sauce. This is why they are so confident. If they can control to near zero, then they will have great performance and yield there.
I think they will be using a small companies IP for this.
Do you're DD. I have.
The issue, IMO, is Intel can't hold on his promises and that's way lie behind. You say it tool Intel to bring a new node 2 year, and expecting they will do it in 10 months in the future?
IBM like INTL has been a disappointment to investors in the last five years however IBM is in the quantum computer race and it's formed a partnership with NVDA. The IBM of the 1980's would have regulations about how its employees could dress down to which color of socks. Perhaps it wasn't the most important thing to focus on. Maybe Big Blue has learned to do away with that which does not serve them well and to focus on what they need to in order to mount their comeback.
IBM's quantum is horrible. Not trying to burst your bubble. Superconducting is a think of the past.
Quantum Chip still have decades or maybe century of work to do before it can reach the market. Operating at -459F is just too expensive.
@@ghinyewfoong2826 a chip at that temperature would freeze the salsa. :-)
Good video. But you should have listened to Gelsinger's comments at the earnings call. He specifically said that 18A was better than TSMC N3. As a TSMC customer they have access to all the data. They also announced 3 wafer customers for IFS with a 4th being signed this qtr. And several packaging customers. One wafer customer has made a significant pre payment for Intel to accelerate their Ocotillo fab build out.
Morris is very sad.... Played n used by americans ..
In a way yes. The US was asleep at the wheel and Taiwan was way more strategic. TSMC would really have liked to be the only foundry to the world but this is the game. By 2027 their golden run will be over if not a bit sooner. That is not a stock price comment fyi.
Agree and would add another key Gelsinger's comment on the same call. That is that those packaging customers are a "ramp up" for future wafer contracts. What I read between the lines is the following. 4 current 18A wafer agreements are Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta. The 4 packaging "ramp up" customers are Nvidia, Qualcomm, AMD and Apple. They will all sign 18A contracts sometime in 2024/25. Future will tell whether I am right or wrong ;)
@@ajaymathur1971really stretch when intel not produce any chip use the 18a eh
Lol, I knew you were being too harsh when you called Intel a dumpster fire. Interesting!
Feels like you follow price action for most part.
Gehlsinger dismissing Arm on PCs should be recorded for posterity, unless they are stepping into the ARM fray they are putting blinders on
Why? Windows can't run on Arm. I'm confused...
Intel stayed x86 architecture where everyone else went ARM, the later was superior for mobile devices, now they need to shift
Ah Intel is going to be making chips for everyone. Not just Intel.
Will the AI sector stocks continue to Lead the market Again this Week.? * SOUN.. 20 % Gains in 2 days.. SoundHound. Nov 9 th 3rd qt financial report...* GFAI Up 17 % week....Guardforce AI...* PLTR.. rose 25 % wk.. Palantir...* BBAI Up 22 % wk.. Big Bear AI and more. Thumbs UP AI sector video.. Thanks.
this is a strange thing 2 examine! & now the market is even ''more'' competitive, than ever before! amazing!
Best tech channel by far ❤
Alex! Thanks so much for your commitment and results regarding the fastest growing space in the world. Would you be able to discuss inference computing prowess in a future pod? Just heard Chamath Palihapatiya interview the Founder of Groq, Jonathon Ross. He claims their "old school" approach to AI inference processing can break the monopoly held by Nvidia. He claimed that Nvidia has a strangle hold on the supply chain, which makes it impossible for any other alternative to compete with the architecture Nvidia uses. Would love your analysis of this. Thank you again...
It is a neverending race between all these companies and I do not think one of them will disappear soon. That´s why I own shares of all the mentioned companies in the video. Yes, Intel is getting way stronger, they are back earning money and they started to develop more and more products. At the past Intel was a lot of times too late with the new generations and if they are able to change this, they will strengthen a lot. On the other hand they fired so many people one year ago, that they have a lot of personal gaps. On the other hand they are building new modern fabs, surprisingly some in Europe where they only had Ireland. With Germany (Magdeburg) and Poland (Breslau) they will have a lot of possibilities. And I think they will extend them in the future.
If you have capacities you have possibilities. On the other hand I´m a bit more sceptical, that Intel will get as successful as Nvidia, especially for the share prices. Intel shares were never big growth stocks, but if they can get to the old prices around 60 $ would be a good success. I do not see 400 $ this or next year. The advantage they have is experience of developing chips and the capacities including the own fabrics. Apple or NVidia depends on TSMC and with China which want to take back Taiwan it is always a major concern. On the other hand NVidia has shown that they can develop AI technology and concepts, which are the best what I can see at the moment.
Just buy and hold all. Timing is so hard to fo
Agreed. When there is this much money to be made, there will be competition. The rapid advances in AI might mean that Tesla (with its data) is likely to achieve full self driving first. But it also means that multiple other companies will have full self driving soon thereafter.
Similarly, in the chip space, I’m nervous about investing in the stocks that require rapid growth in order for shares to not plummet more than I’m nervous about investing in companies that are behind but priced extremely modestly. I’m more nervous about investing in companies that have a lots of market share to lose than I am about investing in companies that have lots of market share to gain.
Intel was never a hyper growth stock like NVIDIA has been recently. However throughout the 1990's Intel doubled every two years like clockwork. The stock's pattern was to double in one year, be range bound in the second year then double again in the following year. To say Intel was never a big growth stock is to say you don't know the history of Intel.
@@jimbeamaYou mean the period between 1990 - 2002, but this is 20 years in the past and not relevant for the current development. So what are you arguing about? After 2002 Intel was a solid stock, but never had the growth again like NVidia or Broadcom has. May be if Intel will find a key strategy for AI and how to handle it. At the moment I do not see it.
"Intel stopped following Moore's Law, and started following Murphy's Law instead". Very well put.
You are awesome !
I think is still ridiculous that AMD doesn't have a higher market cap. They clearly make the superior products right now but over 60% of sales still go to intel?
With the latest Snapdragon giving Apple's M3 chip competition finally, Intel's CISC technology will be seeing its twilight given that MS although slowly is now moving toward ARM as well. Even AMD, Nvidia is now moving to ARM/RISC and Intel's efforts latest efforts are essentially trying to plug the holes that their CISC technology is suffering from. ARM/RISC is the future and their architecture more easily accommodates smaller NM production which in itself will play a role in speed.
The 90’s called looking for you…
Ah, the old powerpc and Sun sparc days.
Right? if you exclude the exact company names this sounds like a comment out of the 90's, x86 is not going anywhere anytime soon.@@Ragis
I was curious on something about Intel. with their float being so massive i wonder if it'll move like some others like nvdia from a investment standpoint. Like their price action moves REALLY SLOW. But i love the turn around. the Biggest surprise of 2024 $65+ by EOY 🙌🏽
16:48 "backside power delivery" that sounds painfull. I think i will give that a miss.
Takes a few years to turn around such a big ship.
Very true
Another 3 years to be more precise ;)
Well made video 👍
Glad you think so!
wouldn't be the first time
It takes a lot of integrity and humility to admit being wrong. Especially to an audience who admires you. Kudos Alex. And thank you for your great videos full of valid due diligence and research!
I appreciate it, thank you 🙏
TOO MANY IFS FOR INTEL TO SURVIVE THROUGH TOUGH COMPETITIONS AN IMPOSSIBLE DREAM FOR THEIR CEO TO BOAST ABOUT
They have $60bn of US Govt's backing them.
@@hammerheadcorvette4Throwing money at a problem does not mean it fixes it. They been throwing more and more money at their problems for years, and it got worse. Not saying the US gov backing them is not going to help, but it's far from any guarantee . Intel is only leading in market share. On actual product they are 2nd tier, behind AMD. On the foundry side they are not only behind TSMC, but also behind Samsung.
Another thing regarding their IFS, ever wondered where they would get the skilled workforce to operate more plants ? Those people are very hard to come by, the U.S alone has no chance of educating enough to them if the production shift from east to west is to happen in any meaningful way. They would have to import thousands of workers into the country.
Charts got one into Intc in March
Thanks!
You rock!
Intel stock 30 years ago is the same price today.
Amd was 26 im 98 and 26 bucks in 2018
@@mikeshipley5626 Correct AMD in early 2017 was running of fumes about to get bust. Ryzen was do or die. They did! Lets see how Intel is going to fair
Bud forgot 30 years of capitalized dividends but yeah let's colour the world the way I like 🥰😊
Yes we know never bet against govt money
How much and when, if not IF?
"tsmc inside, Intel Outside" is their latest winning recipe
Using the entry-level to increase the market share, wow : )
The crazy thing is that intel at a 10nm has held up so long
It remains to be seen how intel ai catches up. For laptop inference, hardware is just part of the story. OPENVINO is no match to cuda. And arm is coming. Too much uncertainty. I wouldn't say intel has come back yet.
I feel so vindicated!
Be fearful when others greedy…. Greedy when others are fearful …. Why people base there entire investment on a RUclipsr is asinine…..it happens literally all the time..one of my best investments in past3 years was buying Simon property because nobody will ever go to mall again… I was buying at low of $50….sold half my position after 3x and been collecting huge dividends ever since….
Did the same. As soon as “everyone” knows or agrees on something that’s a good sign the shared had been jump in my experience investing.
This did not age well - Meteor Lake is a disaster and there seems to be little in the pipeline till early 2025 for consumers.
In server intel - despite having really bad lineup (except where the accelerators play a major role) is holding ground due to market inertia. Lets see how this evolves.
As for AI, intel run into ground Larabee, Knight's Landing and Nervana, now its Habana turn. Will it fly? We will see.
The problem with this company is that it is does not seem to have what it takes to be innovative. Pat doesn't have what t takes to change it either, from the looks of it. We'll see.
I agree, also although everyone criticizes CEO Gelsinger he is doing an amazing job to the get the company back on track in the production of edge chips; Did it take a long time? yes. But by 2025 not only Intel well be producing edge chips once again, but more importantly it will have a crucial advantage over NVIDIA and AMD by actually being able to foundry a lot of their chips; being fabless in this and age, as Nvidia and AMD are by relying so much on TSMC, is becoming increasingly obvious a huge risk
You were also wrong about NVDA in the past, claiming on one video that it is DEAD due to less requirement for graphics cards due to high speed connectivity. Lets face it nobody is perfect. I like your content nonetheless, no BS.. and thanks. Unfortunately I bought into your older video and didn´t buy. My buddy did, and bought a brand new truck with his winnings.
Sorry to hear that’s the only Nvidia video of mine you watched. That video wasn’t wrong at all. Nvidia pivoted HARD away from gaming GPUs and into data centers and I’ve been covering that for well over a year.
I believe its neuramorphic chips that have memory and processing on the same unit would be the best thing for AI .
Yeah the new IBM NorthPole chip looks like it could be a game changer!
The problem with that approach is heat. Keeping them separate can have at least a 30% performance advantage for each component
With their new water processing plant finally coming online. Intel is going big. Right here in Arizona America.
Let’s say Intel hits on all these “ifs”, what’s the ceiling of this stock by end of decade? Think Intel can become the next trillion dollar company?
No I do not think Intel will be a trillion dollar company by 2030. More around $600/700billion. At that point it will be around the same size of Nvidia though as the Nvidia hype subsides.
"This time it is different!" 😉
So, what's your average (purchase) price on INTC?
PLS SHARE YOUR SUCCESS STORY IN DETAIL
There is some information you get wrong about intel, but i just want to touch about meteor lake here. First meteor lake belongs to new branding called intel core ultra and meteor lake belongs to the first series of this new branding. Second meteor lake actually manufactured on multiple nodes from intel & tsmc joined by foveros 3D packing technology. The cpu part manufactured NOT using 7nm process nodes but Intel 4. I knew Intel 4 is a new branding for 7nm from intel but back then 10nm intel is not same as 10nm from other companies. Intel rebranded their nodes to align with current industry standart so help IFS customers comparing intel nodes to other nodes.
Have you seen Intel comes back to dominate the AI Semiconductor industry now? Not just talk; show results please!
Most of the intel chips have not lost to AMD! Looking at the performances since AMD rise at best AMD chips have been marginally better than intels at much smaller node sizes! That tells you a lot about the architecture! People make it seem here like Intel was on the entry market 😂! I have used both ryzen and intel and I can tell you Intel is a much more stable architecture. I had less crashes, less freezing…… I honestly hate AMD chips the never lived up to the hype! A much older intel chip performed much better in daily tasks than the ryzen 7 I had. Never again! I think the architecture has a lot to do with how a chip performs. Just because it does well in a certain task overall performance is still better at Intel.
Chiplet design needs to be adopted. But RISC V chips will be yet another competitor and that's a mass volume chip and low priced.