E7: NVIDIA AI BUBBLE - We Can't Stay Quiet Any Longer
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- Опубликовано: 27 май 2024
- AI and semiconductor stocks like #nvidia ( #nvda stock ) and Microsoft ( #msft stock ) have been climbing so fast that many are calling this a stock market bubble like the dot com bubble of 2000. But unlike in 2000, Generative AI has been adding massive value and revenues to companies ever since #openai released #chatgpt ( and soon #sora ). In this special episode of Funding Awesome, we look at A TON of data to decide whether we're in a stock market bubble or whether the AI stocks we cover are still some of the best stocks to buy now!
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» Main Street Data (Best Financial Charts): mainstreetdata.com/subscripti...
» Simply Wall Street's Nvidia (NVDA Stock) Valuation: simplywall.st/stocks/us/semic...
» Tesla (TSLA Stock) Valuation:
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» Palantir (PLTR Stock) Valuation:
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» Advanced Micro Devices (AMD Stock) Valuation: simplywall.st/stocks/us/semic...
» Podcast: • E5: Our Top 5 Stock Ma...
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Timestamps for this Podcast Episode:
00:00 Generative AI Stock Market Bubble
04:57 NASDAQ-100 in 2000 vs 2024
09:46 Parabolic Stocks in 2000 vs 2024
15:01 Adjusting Our Stock Market Strategy
22:41 IPO Frenzy of 2000 vs AI Stocks Now
32:14 Nvidia Stock (NVDA) vs Cisco (CSCO)
41:51 Quality of Earnings in 2000 vs 2024
47:41 What No One is Telling You & Our Next Steps
Resources & References:
» Nvidia GPU Advances: • NVIDIA'S HUGE AI Chip ...
» Nvidia AI Advances: • NVIDIA'S HUGE AI Break...
» OpenAI Dev Day: • OpenAI & Microsoft's H...
» Google AI War: • The AI War Has Begun! ...
🙏 Thanks for watching!
Disclosures:
All content on this channel is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading stocks, ETFs, other securities, and/or cryptocurrencies poses a considerable risk of loss. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. The content of this video is solely the opinions of the speaker who is not a licensed financial advisor or registered investment advisor. Should you need such advice, consult a licensed financial or tax advisor. When you make purchases through links in this video description, the author may earn a commission.
See additional disclosures at tickersymbolyou.com/disclosures/ 
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No sponsors, no links, just hard data and deep discussion. I love this wonderful community.
Its a bubble if AI is hype, its got a long way to run if A.I is real, do your own research and bet accordingly .. myself I am 62 and have been investing and tracking AI since I read Kurzweil in my 30s I don't think its a bubble it looks real to me.
Watch Tesla videos showing FSD 12.1 or 12.2 forget about Tesla itself just watch the AI you can see for yourself what its capable of in a measurable way, now apply that to AI in other more difficult to view / judge fields ... as I say it looks real.
45:51 btw, you said Google's buying hardware from Nvidia (which they are for google cloud clients to rent from), but from what I know on their gemini development, they used their own in house TPUs to train Gemini, which might be a reason why it's trash.
Something important to remember is that patterns that look like bubbles are bubble and patterns that look like bubbles are also not bubbles at other times. So you cannot easily determine a bubble just by stock price and market trends. You have to accurately and rigorously trace and map out the capital flows.
Meaning that you need to know exactly why the revenue is increase or decreasing, and how the technology is going to be implemented.
The Kathy woods bubble burst already a while back. This AI market movement is actually a paradigm change.
You can apply the concept and power of transformers (the basis of LLMs like chatgpt) to ALL other fields.
For example you can make (and i already see they have made) transformers that instead of predicting the next word. They train on chemicals and elements and predict the next evolutions of elements that would have taken millions of years to occur.
You can do it with genetics. Economics etc. Basically enter something you want the neural network to turn into a type of language patterns it understands how to unfold.
Then experiment with questions and meta studies on these new demi-gods of their field/industry.
So the use of AI capable processors-AI optimized processors, is in spiking up.
Not using it means being left behind. This is accelerating a split between what would you even call it? Users and non-users. I think some people call it normies and im not sure what the other name is.
There is now easy access to a external human language programmable cortex. Use it.
Yup - just like your Cathie Wood days!
Love you bro thank you for all you do!!
I alone hold the key to the NVIDIA bubble. The second i buy, the crash begins.
I must have a copy of that same key 🥲
That's a good one
The moment I sell bitcoin it rockets up
Oh man, that’s funny
Actually most of us have these powers.
“Your time is valuable”…one of a kind RUclipsr. Thank you!
Those who come on CNBC and cry "bubble" are mostly those who have sorely missed the boat, especially those who talk about the coming "reckoning", which they so hope for.
Very reasonable argument. It could also be a bubble that will last for many years due to the usefulness of developing AI technologies. All these folks talking stocks up or down want to influence the marketplace - and no one really can. They know about as much as anyone else as to what will happen.
I agree, it’s a bubble to anyone who missed it…that crowd will be screaming the same things at $1000, $1200 and $1500.
CNBC are there to push the companies that buy advertising on the channel.
Also, it can be Wall Street setting us up for the big sell off.
smci still too high?
Wow...I'm blown away. The quality of the information presented is tip top. Great job to both presenters. Bravo!
The NVDA bubble has netted me 350 % in gains . Long NVDA going to $1000
No doubt it will go to $1000
I'm looking at 1250 to 1500.
It’s not even my biggest holding that would be ABBV and CAT. These three stocks will allow me to retire early
100%
Randomly naming a price target sans rationale is kind of pointless
Alex I love you revising your guest's statements to digest it better. Well-done man, it was a great input
Glad I could add some value to the conversation!
Nobody can know, it looks like a bubble but bull runs always look like bubbles in the rear view mirror. The only logical step if you're not sure you're in a bubble is to be partially invested and have cash on the sidelines. Luckily cash is yielding rates higher than inflation so whether you're cash or stocks you're doing great right now.
Bingo! I haven’t purchased since the beginning of the year. Staying liquid.
Bull runs do not always look like bubbles in hindsight. 2009 - 2019 was a legit bull run, and it was due to steady, consistent gains throughout the years.
Goo point but I would say that by using the DCF model and using a 50 to 55% growth rate if it still at an appropriate price is not yet a bubble.
but if the price starts through a 50 to 55% growth show too far then possible it is a bubble
@@mr8610 what do you mean Bingo
The short sellers are calling it a bubble. Gee, I wonder why? Manipulating the market is how they get rich !?
Yeah, but they also reached that assessment BEFORE they placed their bet.
And those who are long also stand to gain if a stock goes up. But they also reached their positive assessment before they placed their bets.
So rather than WHO is saying what, the evidence for and the logic of the various arguments for or against are what matter.
What happens if the AD tech bubble hits and destroys NVDAs top customer base revenue and causes a massive pull back in buying? Game over?
for your stock to move up some body has to buy at high prices and somebody has to sell, people who like the stock dont have a reason to sell, so be happy that shortsellers make money intraday so your stock can go up - that how you get momentum, otherwise the people who would sell would sit very low and your chart would look like the stuff that safety oriented big money like insurance trades, those stock stay in a range for years
It is only logical to short the market if an investor thinks the market is in a bubble. The same investor can just as easily go long when the thinking is that the market is not in a bubble.
Well said@@albeit1
My first stock trade was YAHOO at $280 and soon it crashed to 50s in 1999 or so. I just started working out of graduate school. I lost 80% of my capital but the absolute amount was small at the time when every dollar mattered to me. It was so painful that I did not even look stock market for many years! This video brought me back to that time again! my God. what a life experience.
I was also active through that and see you can't generalize. This guy is talking about market overall, but many of those dotbombs should never have been companies nor have gone public. Now the public offerings are more sane, but the valuations are whack. They can pull back 16% on whim, just because they should. Valuations don't matter, until they do. Apparently, they inflate bubbles to teach every new generation this. 2000, 2008, 16? 18?....
YHOO was insane but QCOM SDLI i myself had NTAP RMBS I bought QCOM At 365 and sold at 1000 but only had 50 shrs
When the market crashed in 2000 I was working at an IPO success story as an IT consultant in the Bay area. Their stock dropped from 66 to 6 dollars in a few days. The company was so quiet it felt like a graveyard. A techy sitting next to me lost his entire fortune in a couple of days.
@@designy2 young generation probably do not know the story of Enron which was a dramatic fall in a few days! Its employees lose everything - pension, 401k retirement, RSU, jobs.
I can relate. My portfolio of 195k in Feb of 2021 dropped to 60K in 2022.
Great show!!!! I have owned Nvdia for 10 years.. and never sold one share because i read A LOT & listened to Jensen Huang whenever possible & recognized that he was a genius... a visionary & that this co. was SOOO much more than a gaming stock or a crypto stock but had an amazing future esp with a genius at the helm. So when it was sold off at about $300 ... i just didn't & i didn't worry. Did i know AI would become what it is now.. of course not.. but i knew it would be something big or many things big. Ok so that being said which you went into Apple a bit more.. because it is my other highest conviction co. (yeah i bought some microsoft & the rest of the gang .. all great co's but my highest conviction in tech was always Nvdia, Apple & Amazon.(I agree this is not a bubble & def learned a lot listening to your guest explain that in detail.. GREAT INFO!! But these days you do not have to look far to see some cnbc "analyst" or you tuber just tearing them down like they are nothing. It actually upsets me.. I mean do these people not see that Apple is investing so much $ bought more AI startups than anyone else for even more brain power.. And that they are NOT "LATE" they have to perfect AI to fit into their ecosystem & provide the billions of users with privacy & not hacks & copyright infringement lawsuits.. And imo they will be the co to get AI RIGHT!!! & blow minds once again... Yet they cannot catch a break... so many naysayers who seem to enjoy the negativity. I know Apple's style & i get they will wait to announce anything amazing but i also think they are not waiting to the last minute to create their masterpiece & probably can announce something NOW> this time i might agree that Apple may need to announce something soon to stop this negativity in it's tracks. I mean they are APPLE they really do not have to prove a goddamn thing... but i sure which they would move up major announcement.. (this time) but hey they are going to do just great w/o my opinion .. I just hate these people feeling vindicated esp w stock price down... ANY OPINION??? Mr. Tantarelli def burst the bubble of all the "Bubble theorists" with clear concise comparisons & just valuable information. I wonder if you have a link to his show.. I'd love to hear more. THX to both of you for most informative you tube ... idk maybe EVER!!
If you held all 3 of these for a long time you must be rich AF.
Alex, thank you SO MUCH for being someone who CARES about your subscribers and not just getting the numbers. You are SUCH an awesome resource and thank you for doing the research and making the necessary connections/networks with others to continue to evolve and be GREAT at what you do! YOU ROCK FOREAL! 🎉🎉🎉
This was an incredibly valuable episode. Thanks to you both. I did want to add (as someone who also lived that bubble): Starting in 2000, NASDAQ dropped 39%, 21%, and 32% each year. Basically, your $100 in Jan 2000 was $33 in Jan 2003. Even if this current "bubble" is a quarter the size of the Dot Com bubble, that could still mean a drop of 16% over 3 years. (I know it's not a bubble, but that is the analogous downside risk).
Thanks for sharing and that's a great point. I think -16% over 3 years is a lot more tolerable than -67% though (just my opinion).
@@TickerSymbolYOU oh, i agree totally. I do wonder if his analysis not of the way up (1995-2000) bur rather the way down (2000-2003) would reach a similarly clear conclusion.
Past year 2000, until 2003-04, we have seen down market. So I wonder what can be expected given that the debt crisis period is not discountable. If no more wars, assuming Republicans at helm, I pray for smaller debt driven downtime this t8me around.
I believe the concern of a lot of the people calling this a bubble is that if companies building AI solutions cannot turn those solutions into profits, they’ll slow or stop their spending on cloud and hardware, the cloud providers will slow their spending on hardware, and the market will drop quickly. So far the earnings are holding up, and hopefully they continue to, but I do think there’s some risk of a substantial correction within a couple of years if we don’t start seeing direct benefit from all the investments.
ChatGPT&Copilot are both making profit now
But NVIDIA still wins, by keeping selling the chips.
Not if sales crater!
Good point but according to guidance that does not seem like a 2024 problem. Just make sure you are paying attention when the other shoe falls so you can parachute out.
Microsoft released ChatGPT just over a year ago. They already made $800m from AI (Copilots, AI-enabled Azure, etc) last quarter.
People who bought Apple, Tesla, FB, Amzn and sold when they heard the word bubble regretted it. I can't tell you where Nvidia will be in 6 months but with the moat and head start they currently have, the way in which AI is growing I wouldn't bet against them long term.
I bought 10k worth of nvidia shares back during 2020 April, it has returned 9-10x and just now my uncle and friends ask me about nvidia stocks,thats the indicator for me, its time to get out, I'm gonna use the money to invest in palantir or even intel. Ppl don't realize semiconductor business is cyclical, market leader doesn't stay at the top forever at this industry.
Smart decision tbh. Although i’d keep a little on the table in case...
@@AjaySenseiif it run more it run more so be it, but with nvidia already at 2.5T++marketcap. I don’t see much room to grow as opposed to business that’s still in 30-100b
Excellent video!
I have been saying this all the time we are not in a bubble, when some knucklehead on the interwebs says he is selling all his NVDEA stocks because it is in a bubble. Actually I think we are in a time the opposite could happen... Stocks are deeply undervalued and companies earnings and profits outrun their valuations, and stocks fail to catch up, because it scares investors how fast these companies are growing.
But at some point valuations will have to catch up, so I will keep on accumulating! month after month!
Been beating myself up a bit that I sold my 53 shares of NVDA at $303 each back in May 2023. Now thinking of liquidating a few other investments to rebuy but afraid to do so. I do have quite a bit in a few growth ETFs that have NVDA as a chunk of the fund.
The way to rebuy is to do it slowly. Add a bit of NVDA every month. I have been slowly adding to my position every month for the last year. I have an other 35 shares to buy before my target. I will wait buying those till April (12 shares,)May (12 shares. )June ( 11 shares). NVDA will keep doing well for the next 2 years I believe.
@@1brunner699 Got to love that 850 ⬆️ w/ NVDA. Like I said, it's not too late to BUY. Just don't sell at the wrong time and wrong the price to gain profit. Like you did last time.. 🥴 😂 Lol..
@@albertinsinger744366% of the time, buying immediately produces higher returns than DCA. DCA makes sense when you have a set amount to invest each month. A one time purchase can also backfire.
VanNeck Semiconductor SMH
Your guest is spot on. I invested durning 1996 through 2000. I lost 80% . I own NVDA and will not sell.
Alex - great information. I am definitely going to subscribe to Larry's newsletter. You provide the best work, thanks for what you do.
Bubbles tend to be on companies that can't justify their valuation - NVIDIA has solid income and is profitable. I think first you have to define exactly what makes a 'bubble' - otherwise is just opinions.
We define what we mean by bubble in the video.
they are cookin the books for the fed.
BIG difference between 2000 and now is that mobile phones were not used for investing and trading. Knowledge that retail investors have now is way beyond what we had in 2000. Also, nvidia is 20x in 4 years
I thought it's exactly the opposite. Back then it was harder to invest. Now every kid can trade with their thumb.
Perfectly explained, thank you. The bubble claimers, on the other hand, have nothing to support their argument except that Cisco over NVidia graph.
But they line up so well (as long as you cherry-pick the dates perfectly) !!!
Classic Alex video! Riveting. It felt like I was sitting in a class the whole time. Thanks. Please bring back again. 😊
same, i learnt a fk ton
Another GREAT video! Love how detailed all your stuff is. Keep up all the good work ! 🤙
I am probably one of your biggest trolls and haters. But this interview was worthy of a thumbs up and a share on other platforms. Well done.
I appreciate you, even when we don’t agree. Thanks for the kind words 🍻
A lot of what I lost in the tech crash was profit not principal. But what I did wrong was buy on margin. Plus sold half my winners chasing companies that had no earnings.
So I started over right away with 30k and bought PM and held for 8 years and gained 80k through div. and price appreciation. When the financial collapse hit in 2007-2008? I weathered the storm. Then through home work found NVDA, V, MA, COST, ABBV, LLY.
They all make money and grow. My wife thinks I'm a genius. Hahaha , I'm not even close to genius just tired of making stupid choices.
Good luck to all fellow investors.
QE and ZERO interest rates for nearly 15 years means world wide debt is at mind boggling proportions. Now interest rates have risen to about 5%. Commercial property in the USA is dire it means the banks are in deep trouble.We are already in a crash.
This is hands down among the best content I have ever seen anywhere. Alex. This was sick. 🏆
It’s not a bubble when a bunch of people think it’s a bubble.
In every bubble, there are a bunch of people who think it’s a bubble. There are always a bunch of people who think it’s a bubble whether it is or isn’t.
ceci n'est pas une pipe !
@@Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn yeah yeah. Don’t be so literal. When too many people think it is.
Agree. Its not a bubble for now at least. However, I did a comparative analysis between $NVDA VS $AMD VS $SMCI to know which one is the better investment using financial analysis. Please take a look and let me know your thoughts.
ruclips.net/video/Tc0CddrB8rE/видео.html
@@Ryannnnnnnnnnnnnnnn did you just say blaah bla blaaah?
Great presentation! While I didn't have the data to support the conclusion you came to, I've been in agreement with your conclusion for some time. In fact, I wrote a blog where I explain Nvidia's exploding market cap as a measurement of of the difference between actual AI capabilities and the common person's perception of AI capabilities. As the AI capability and perception of its ability come into alignment, it translates to higher sales for Nvidia and increased market cap. That's my theory any hoo.
Additionally, I think resistance to improvement in AI capabilities is rooted in emotions for many people. The psychological admission that humans aren't the smartest form of intelligence on the planet is like when humans realized Earth isn't the center of the universe. Some people don't have a world model that can accept the displacement of human ability from the mantle on which it's sat for millennia.
-Random Internet Dude
RIP. All these bears just can’t find a way in
A key insight added here is that the customers of NVDA are well heeled instead of Cisco's customers then.
Someone once told me, “you can never study the past to predict the future”.
This would be good advice if it didn't use the word "never". If it said some times, or a lot of times, it would make more sense.
That “some one” you preferred to in this comment was wrong. History of Human more than often repeated itself!
But this is predicting future income, that isn't realized, for current price.
People who don’t look at the past are doomed to repeat it.
ChatGPT is working on predicting future words. Guess how it learns about it 🙂
people been saying Nvidia bubble since it was at 300 - It was at 970 on Friday before going back down to 850 my predictions is on Monday it goes down to 820-30 and just keeps going back up its gonna fight to hit 1000 but eventually it will.
My three favorite channels: Ticker Symbol: YOU, Stock Brotha, & Everything Money. Love them all! ❤ ❤ ❤
Super collab, great video! Congrats and thank you!
love how you are summarize information. you are the BEST!!!!
I appreciate the feedback! I’ll keep doing that.
It always bothers me that these charts aren't inflation adjusted, especially when you start looking at > 5 years. It really makes a huge difference. The market is actually lower than it was at the previous high when you inflation adjust.
Most informative based video so far. This long-form discussion is golden content and I hope you bring on more guests like this!
We are in a bubble, but it’s a matter of if we are at the beginning or end of it. I’m looking forward to a long run on this one for myself and my friends at Nvidia.
So would you call 2009 - 2019 a “bubble”?
We will really know once the "bubble" busted. Before that, hubris is running the show.
@@jasonc5437why would we call 2009-2019 a bubble? We never exited the bull run from 09 imo. Just funny business with covid lock downs and interest rates. The economy has remained quite resilient from 2020-2024
Fantastic content! Thank you for bringing this to us!
Glad you enjoyed it!
i hope this bubble will take effect soon so i can go back and join in the ride that i missed due to my 3 years chronic health issues....
Thank you for making this video to give a full picture. Of course we may still be in a bubble, granted a smaller bubble, but i'm glad that you put these videos out. (btw, I don't personally think we're in a bubble yet).
Every crash/collapse/recession provides an equal market opportunity if you are properly prepared and knowledgeable. I've seen people amass up to $800,000 during crises and even with ease in a bad economy. Someone has undoubtedly become extremely wealthy as a result of the crash.
I agree that there are strategies that could be put in place for solid gains regardless of economy or market condition, but such executions are usually carried out by investment experts or advisors with experience.
@@basharlawal6783 Please who is guiding you and how?
@@basharlawal6783 I will give this a look, thanks a bunch for sharing.
Its a bubble if AI is hype, its got a long way to run if A.I is real, do your own research and bet accordingly .. myself I am 62 and have been investing and tracking AI since I read Kurzweil in my 30s I don't think its a bubble it looks real to me.
Watch Tesla videos showing FSD 12.1 or 12.2 forget about Tesla itself just watch the AI you can see for yourself what its capable of in a measurable way, now apply that to AI in other more difficult to view / judge fields ... as I say it looks reeal.
It definitely looks real to uss too. And Kurzweil's books are great. I'm looking forward to The Singularity is Nearer!
@@TickerSymbolYOU Great video, great explanation! I am looking forward to Singularity is Nearer as well. I feel like the more I learn about AI, the more I feel like I am concerned about how the future technology will turn out to be, rather than whether my investments in AI-related stocks will be successful. It would be interesting to become rich riding the AI wave but money would be useless if it comes to the point when AI is a million times smarter than humans and decided to wipe out humanity lol.
One of the MOST (emphasis on most) visually organised education videos. Its something which others can learn from. It's how MKBHD set a standard for Tech videos. Keep it up
Yep, not a 1999 bubble, I owned 12 stocks going into 1999 and everyone of them was up at least 20x in 1999, and I thought foolishly, I was the smartest person in the world!😱💚🍀
I do NOT think the NVDA is a bubble, and neither do my existing 597 NVDA shares (cost basis $134.78/share) If it dips significantly any further not only would I be surprised, but I might be forced to buy another 25 shares? In any event for any NVDA share holder, we are good for AT LEAST the 2nd quarter of 2025. for 2024, we are gonna be just fine- NO COMPETITOR can come even close to the NVIDIA H200 Tensor Core GPU which supercharges generative AI and HPC workloads at a speed that leads the market People/bears who don't understand NVDA will continue to hate the stock as it surpasses expectations and raises guidance throughout the rest of the year!!! NVDA has changed my life completely
I just brought one share of nvidia just recently. As I had a little bit of cash. Because I only earn about $50,000 a year I usually do dollar cost averaging on my shares every week.. I have been investing for three years now.
I was all set to disagree with someone that doesn't understand AI, or the previous tech bubble, but I actually agree with everything he said. Not that there isn't AI hype going around, and I'm sure there are plenty of companies that are overvalued based on dubious claims that they are doing AI things, but the core is solid and will remain solid for at least the next 5 years.
Extraordinary Insights , this showcases NVDIA powers and shatters the myths that it is not an AI bubble . This one video will clarify so many unanswered questions about (Internet & AI ) boom. Kudos to you to produce this 👌✌👍
Thanks for sharing, it reminded me on how crazy 1999-2000 was back then. Another point worth mentioning was what triggered the 2000 crash…the inflated IPOs owners had time restrictions on cashing out which started to happened in march 2000 and secondly lots of people were margin trading, that then got burned once it started falling and the calls came in to cover. Also lots of folks who sold then quickly reinvested without setting aside their Tax liability. It was so messy, that Tech soured nearly everyone. Thus the fear of history repeating itself.
This is excellent. I was around and in the market in 2000 and have forgotten some of these points. Well done!
Terrific research based analysis. Thanks for inviting Larry for this session.
Thank you so much for this video, it’s been so helpful for me. I’ve just started investing and I have finally understood things! The first stock I invested in was NVIDIA last month, so I really appreciate this good deep analysis.
Also, I love that it’s not just another clickbait, sponsored video full of ads everywhere like the ones that are so popular now. I really appreciate the discussion supported by research.
This is a very good discussion. Having been in the telecoms/internet sector during the late 1990s - early 2000s when the dotcom bubble happened and the telecom crash happened, what is going on today with AI, Nvidia and SMCI is a far cry from those days.
In those days you had billboard advertisements along the streets "for the Next Big IPO".
That's what a real stock-market bubble looks like.
0:30 fascinating interview. I lived and invested through 2000 bubble. What scares me now is the manic buying.
Great discussion. Long time holder of Nvidia since 2015. Got to admit the earnings release week was stressful for me. This helped me to keep my long-term perspective.
Such a gem of a video Alex. Thoroughly loved the analysis and your content gets better day by day. Hats off to you my man!
🙏🍻 you rock
NVDA forward P/E is under 30 and they are growing 100%. Obviously not a bubble but a good value. GMAFB
It might be worth remebering the Nasdaq was only 14 years old in 1999 & is now a much more mature exchange.
A 300% move in 5 years in a mature exchange is still quite something.
Nasdaq is up 115% over the last 5 years. 300% would be bubblicious. I thought 2020 & 2021 were mini bubbles up 75% in just 2 years.
It took us a bit over 3 years to go public September, 99'. The stock was priced at $12 one month prior to IPO, $18 one week prior, then it went out priced at $25 and closed at $156 the first trade day. There is nothing speculative nor overvalued of Nvidia. The only risk is what Buffett was concerned, what happened if China disrupted the TSMC chips output. If that happened, it would cause worldwide recession. You could say SMCI, AMD and TSLA are way more speculative than Nvidia by a wide margin. SMCI, there is no unique technology and it has many competitors in Taiwan, no with its scale and market presence. Thanks to the protectionism in the western countries, otherwise there are many stronger companies in China with better server technologies than SMCI. TSLA actual numbers such as operating margin, gross margin, cash flow does not justify its valuation, but OTOH, it is a hope, dream and a religion. As long as the hope is alive and well, you never want to bet against it.
This is a man of wisdom, telling things like they really are.
Super lucky to have Larry on!
Thank you @SLK4000
I think what we have today not a tech bubble but there are company level bubbles… One thing comes up and everyone running after the stock and similar stocks… before Netflix then Tesla now nvdia…
My problem with NVIDIA is how tightly coupled to AI they are and that is definitely overhyped.
That was a great podcast. One of the best I have seen. Larry had some great points and material to back it up. Great job Alex and Larry.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Many thanks.
In March of 2000, Bob Brinker from Marketimer called a bubble and suggested subscribers to sell and hold Cast and called the bottom in 2002 to buy back in. But not at internet stock. Anyone who held Apple in 1998-2000 and hold until now would have had a major gain of 54K+. Instead of buying and selling, follow Buffet and Munger and hold a great company. Holding QQQ from height of 2000 to now would get you a close to 400% gain in 20 years
I don’t know anything about trading.
But to me, thèse comparisons are not Apple to Apple.
Back in the 2ks, the internet was new and companies were pretty small.
Today we’re talking about multi billion companies that are doubling / trippling their stocks values in a couple years. This sounds like it could be a bubble to me
AI bubble when AI is at it's infancy. HILARIOUS! Great video my man!
Ever heard of Gartner Hype Cycle?
No, but I will look into it.@@greeneyedguy
You must be young. Even though AI is in it's infancy, the stocks may have moved in advance of actual real life development. There are no rules that say they have to move along together step by step at the same speed.
Nah. NVDA stock price has moved, for the most part, up with earnings, though have not quite caught up, meaning it is cheaper now than it was last year. @@RajDeelish
Brilliant video! Thanks for sharing, very insightful...
Great video Alex. It really lays it out. Larry was an excellent guest choice. Thank you so much.
You have to compare the overall valuation of the NDX to the valuation of SPX, to the US gross domestic product and the us market valuation. NDX in 2000 compared to 2024 is comparing an 1B$ IPO to an 200 B$ stock.
An inflation adjusted breakdown would have been cool. Especially because it would highlight compounded returns over time more accurately.
Love the content! Great info baker by data from what I've seen. Thanks got sharing and taking the time to do so!
Glad it was helpful!
I'm not saying NVDA can't go higher, but having a capitalization higher than the GDP of Canada seems a bit frothy for a design bureau!
A timely video Alex .. you’re reading the play really well and what a great guest .. Matt 🕺🍺..
Thank you @judd7699
@@bluechipdaily Larry / Alex - do you have a price target on Nvidia moving forward?
Wow! So much quality info here. Awesome guest, awesome channel,awesome alex. Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Great video! Fantastic insights. I’m so glad you both did this video. Many thanks!
I sold 1/2 of my NVDA once I doubled my money, the rest I wont sell for the next 10 years
So your now on a free ride
Awesome
Wow great video and so eye opening. I never thought the Dotcom bubble was so so crazy. Feeling very bullish after that
Appreciate the walk through the history! These videos are such a treasure for new traders.
I remember that time, as an IT-hobbyist from that time: The stocks were like fishing during ant-spawning season, you toss the blank hook in and fish fought for it. Stockmarket was like that. Me and my friends who were into IT either started those companies, or worked for them, and most of us were buying dividend stocks like ABB, Sandvik, Volvo, Catepillar et.c. because we KNEW how fishy some of the companies were!
Some of us got rich from stock share options as wages from selling them in the right time though!
Fantastic discussion
Two things everyone wants to know
Latest AI IPOs and top AI stocks which still to be blasted
Please make video as early as possible
Thank you
Thank you Alex and Larry for this❤ Just what I needed, some perspective on it all! Just excellent guys, learned so much!❤
Glad you enjoyed it!
I bought a couple of nvidia shares late last year when I became convinced AI is going to change the world (as it is already). So I bought ONE share of whoever is making gpus, and a couple of connected companies. And I'm fairly certain that in 10 years' time, these shares will be worth several thousand euros each. It's hard for me to imagine these companies not completely dominating the economy by then.
We are not in a bubble... We are experiencing greatest growth in american and probably human history....
This is a really great reminder of what I lived through. And AI hasn’t really entered the public consciousness - it took 2 years from the Internet’s introduction to get to the bubble. We are really just at the introduction now so we likely have another year of awareness ahead of us before the real take off.
Right! I've been keeping up with AI/using on a regular basis for over a year now. I realize that nobody else around me even sees what is going on, and I forget that what seems obvious to me is not necessarily knowledge to others.
I don't see the logic. 3x is not 12x, true. However, a piece of the syllogism needs to be included: proof that a bubble can't happen at 3x. If we don't match the numbers from the 2000s, it doesn't mean there is no bubble. Any unusual rapid single changes typically identify a bubble, not absolute numbers. NVIDIA's growth is definitely unusual.
Great interview. Well worth the hour spent. You sontinue to do a great job on this channel! Im recommending it to all my friends. Thanx
One of your best yet. Thank you :) This was so interesting.
Glad you enjoyed it!
when the ipos were hot , it was at a point during the pandemic that 7 trillion $$$ of the gvt stimulus money was getting to the public , with so many shut downs , noting to do , it literally was like lets come up with an idea and make a company , and that was a huge amount of money to pump into partially closed economy , so people invested that money in many of these ipos companies .
This is good info, although I think just slightly misleading by only picking 1995 - 2000 and 2018-2024. The drop and climb 1990 (post savings and loan recession) to 2000 compared inflation adjusted from 2009 (GFC) to today then things aren't quite as different.
The multiple for the past 5 years is on top of a rip we've been on since 2012.
Excellent video thank Alex. Very interesting
Thanks for the content Alex. Love conversation that is data driven.
wow, complete eye opener for me. thanks Alex for sharing
One other take away from his discussion is how many of the stocks are not even around anymore they were part of that bubble run up in 2000 that is a cautionary tale! I believe in Van will be around, but it doesn’t bode well for some other companies potentially.
You're just great. Thank you to introduce us Larry. Just one point I differ is, where Larry said that there will nor occur a same bubble and we are'nt going to witness such a thing. Completely assuming that the AI or AGI or with them related bubble will be the biggest ever. Because the AI is the biggest thing in human history. Evolution made us analytical thinking organisms, now we are evolving organisms wits the same talent but better,faster etc. by trillion folds. Computing machines and internet were just infrastructure and milestones. I am 52 and sure in few years it will come. I'm waiting for the biggest cycle opportunity of my lifetime. Greetings from Turkey.
Had anyone who used an iota of GPT, will know AI is real and here to stay. Contribution to this world by Nvidia is priceless.
thanks for the perspective, very helpful.
NVIDIA is the first company that the "analysts" doesn't how to analyze, so they guess every quarter, and when they see a correction they go really quick to reinforce the bubble theory, till they see its not...
The only difference between now and then is that our Government has been overrun with Corruption and that’s the main reason why most Americans have very little trust with the Stock Markets.
100% correct.