It's Over: The Rolex Watch Boom is Done
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- Опубликовано: 29 сен 2024
- Here I provide an update on the watch market and how each type or category of watch has changed in terms of demand as well as price. I also give some insight into what we see at DelrayWatch.com as well as some thoughts on the future of watches.
The watch categories covered are:
- Modern watches: Rolex, Patek, AP, RM, etc
- Modern watches: Other brands
- Vintage watches: Rolex, Patek, Ap
- Vintage watches: Other
As always. when it comes to luxury watches, I recommend buying the watches that you will wear not what others expect you to wear. Also, I generally don't believe watches are for investment, though for hobby, enjoyment, and potentially sporting/utility.
The rolex boom killed any desire for me to own a rolex. I don't know about any other collectors out there but the hassle and inflated prices on all the modern rolex pieces caused me to look elsewhere for cool pieces to add to the collection. Vintage ap, vc, pp, and even breguet have tons more value than a rolex in my personal opinion. This boom opened my eyes really to how little I actually desire a rolex at this point.
could not agree more. I've now bought JLC,Cartier, Omega. The behaviour of the past 2 years from the ADs very much diminished the brand for me.
@@fishheadbreakroom It's been longer than two years, more like five.
@rk702 Closer to 10 years. Cases at AD's became bare around 2015
Best comment I have read on any watch channel
Yeah, but if an AD called you tomorrow to offer you a steel Rolex sport watch I bet you wouldn’t say no.
The day a Hulk is back down to $15k I"ll believe the boom is over.
Be patient the price pendulum is swinging in our direction.
We're not too far off.
Markets always react with emotion from those in the market. John and Fed are straight shooters. They tell it like they see it. They give room for counter opiniins, by saying others may see it differently.
Whatever you believe, the facts are that many prices across the board are softening. And there are more watch brands now than ever. And they are pumping out huge amounts of inventory.
I have no idea, which way the market will move, price wise. But if I was a gambling man, I would bet on it still moving lower.
Could easily buy below that pre-Covid.
High interest for longer is hulking everything.
Until you can buy your desired watch at the A.D without a crazy wait time other than a few rare pieces the market has not fully corrected
I think we will see A.Ds offering up many models this time next year when we enter the lows of this recession
I really hope the AD’s and grey market dealers have to sell at deep discounts under msrp after taking advantage of consumers the last several years.
If you want a Rolex, expect to pay at least 50x more of it's price because of flippers and "investors". Rolex knows that ordinary people cannot get the watch for the AD price, because flippers and "investors" are all on the list - they buy and resell watches making them impossible for ordinary people to buy. So basically if you want to be on that list you need to spend AT LEAST 50k$ for the watches before they can put your name on list for Submariner or Daytona or whatever. Rolex knew this perfectly but didn't bothered to do anything about it! That is why we got a watch people own in a box with all the papers and they just look at it because it is an investment and not a watch per se!
Market falling down? Nope by a long shot. For as long as there are ques of people waiting to go to flippers to buy Rolex watches for 50x the price, the market is stable. And trust me there is plenty of people wanting to buy such a watch for even the triple the price. So nah, Rolex is all good.
50x… slight exaggeration! 😂
@@jfdomega7938 No it's not! Datejust with Tiffany dial costed around 14k! You can't get that one without paying 80k + from flippers.
Solid commentary as usual and spot on.
Thanks!
You're wearing one of my favorite watches EVER
This is the bottom. Watch people don't understand monetary systems.
Hard assets will become a store of value in the coming inflation 👍🏻
Great info John!
Thanks!
Today I just walked into an AD, tried on a few models that I like and walked out with the one that I think looked the best on me. Honestly I think this is good news for watch fans and bad news for scalpers.
That's great! Where?
Hing Wa Lee in San Gabriel Valley CA came in for a DJ41 or Submarine, walked out with a DJ41.@@JohnPWatches
@@JohnPWatches Narnia
31mm Datejust? 😀
@@check2000 🤣
you did great with this one, keep doing it!
I just wanted to take a moment to say how amazing your video was! I was really impressed with the quality of the footage, the editing, and the overall presentation. You did a great job of explaining the topic in a clear and concise way, and I learned a lot from watching your video.
;)
ok bot
you are 100% wrong madam. I am absolutely not a bot, @@check2000
Good.....they are over priced for the most part anyways.
I disagree, I do not really consider myself a watch person but have been researching them over the last 6 months+ and one thing that I have noticed from the comments are that there are way too many Rolex lovers out there that there will always be a demand for them. I can tell to many that Rolex carries a badge of honor or is a symbol of success to materialistic people and let’s be honest we live in a petty materialistic world.
Good. Hope some douchey people have been left out of pocket and put off the hobby and left the field for people genuinely into the hobby.
Couldn’t agree more
John is a collector and a dealer so he usually speaks as an insider. You might say this is “the final nail in the coffin” confirming that Rolex prices are trending down/softening. First the RUclipsr from Miami noticed this trend 2 years ago, then the grey dealer from London about a month ago admitted the downward trend, then the guy from Japan, and now John. This is great news for collectors. The flippers & “investors” are pulling out of the market. The final 2 dominos that need to fall are the neo-grey dealers who entered the market when prices were booming need to lower their prices or leave the business, and of course, the ADs have to start to fill their empty cases and start to treat new customers right! Great job John P!
Thanks Danny. Great comments here. Looking forward to the future!
John, you fell out of my feed, so it's been a while since I tuned in. You, friend, have really nurtured and developed your delivery ... your timing, gestures, facial expressions, and speaking style have all improved dramatically. Nice job ... you should be proud, because I don't imagine that it just happened.
Isn’t Rolex building another factory?
@@RootBeerGMT Yes, two temporary factories open in 2024. A third large factory will open in 2029.
I hope everyone who has been patiently waiting tells their ads exactly where to go when they finally call. They treated us like garbage when they didn’t need us but now that their criminal scam is coming to an end they will come crawling back. Remember folks, Rolex ADs are just glorified watch salesmen, right below realtors and used car salesmen.
Despite the hype and demand for Rolex, I think there was some brand damage done. A lot of people, including myself, experienced a poor customer experience in. Rolex Ad. I bought two Omegas in last few years, with a pleasant experience. I'm finding it difficult to go back to Rolex.
You aren’t the only customer to have the same experience with ADs.
Same here mate..
I hear this a lot
I believe the sales person in the AD varies person from person and some would definitely have better service and attitude than others
I think a lot of people say this but it still eats away at them.
I don’t think there is any chance of Rolex slowing down. I’ve had a GMT on my wrist for 55 yrs. That’s right. Well before you were born. I hope your right. Because I’m waiting for a Daytona SS. Having bought a sub, Pepsi from my AD. So honestly it won’t be much of a wait. A lot more Daytonas are trickling in. What has really ruined it is the word investment. I didn’t buy a new sub and Pepsi for an investment.
Rolex will always be #1 from marketing and brand identification alone.
Still nowhere near an artisanal brand and that’s where my loyalties lie. Rolex is way too mass-produced for the baggage that comes along with it.
I don't know about that. Prices for top Rolex Sports Models are still pretty high and trading double retail in some cases. Also, you still can't walk into a Rolex AD and get the watch you want. Until the price gets closer to retail, then i'll believe it.
100% agree. Sports Rolex watches still very much in demand. I wonder though about RUclipsrs posts talking about prices falling (not crashing) to levels not seen in years is in fact the same hype, in reverse, to what they were talking about in 2021/22 when prices were rocketing up. What I’m saying is there appears to be a tendency to push out content to sensationalise reality. It’s quite amazing to observe the change in attitude in such a small period of time.
@@ricgstevens yes. It's like it's reverse marketing or reverse psychology to still get people to buy. Prices are still high for many Rolex sports models as I recently purchased a Batgirl from a Grey dealer and it was double retail. After a year of being on a wait-list with my preferred AD,.I got tired of waiting, and pulled the trigger.
@@smr32061 double retail for sports models is about right here in Australia also. Even 10-20 year old GMT II's are fetching way over retail. Rolex sports models seem totally insulated from the rest of the Rolex market. Precious metals and iced-up models are a different story I hear. I am not waiting for a secondary market crash as I don't believe there will be one. Interest rates seem to have peaked in the western world and once confidence returns, demand will be back.
Agreed 100% clickbait!@@ricgstevens
Rolex let this hyper demand go too long without an answer & have damaged their relationships with enthusiast.
Agree. They could have killed flipping - but loved the free publicity about becoming an ‘asset’ - turned off true watch fans. We’ll see if the posers stay loyal.
It's not going to make a difference. Enthusiast? Are probably like 1 percent maybe 2 tops. That's not even going to make a scratch let alone a dent
So many people bought watches bc they thought they could not lose money. All those people are now largely holding on hoping it comes back. Once they start cutting losses this thing will really crash.
Good for buyers. About time.
Agreed!
Rolex done 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
I bought my Sub Date ceramic on 2014.
I sold it on 2020.
Ha. Make some money..
I will get a GMT master 2..
But I’m still waiting for the right time to go in..
Or maybe at retail price. No rush..
It’s just a Mechanical watch. It’s only a Wants For me, Not a Needs for me in life!😇
As long as corruption, money laundering, social status exists Rolex boom and value will hold.
Precisely. Rolex has damaged itself by making it watches to be worn by D-bags and shady business mean and dealers in the white stuff.
Breitling aftermarket are nuts. For a b01 42 u can get up to over 40%......
Big boom yes but I don’t think you could go at the AD and grab an airking even now lol.
The boom is definitely over. But I’ll still purchase from my ad in the future. I just purchased a batgirl this year, so I’m good for a couple of years at least.
Rolex has is and will be THE WATCH that everyone wants, we tend to judge them by what happened the last two years, which has nothing to do with them! High demand a flippers wanting to make quick money and now see that it's getting to an end and want you to buy something else where they can make a higher profit. Owning a rolex its pure enjoyment and thats it, get one now that the prices are lower because they will rise as they have for the last 50 Years
most hot Rolex models have stabilised, over rrp
Prices still falling here in the UK
@@Anonymouslyme1 same, all the steel models have been pretty much the same price for the last 6 months
As a rule, by the time the general interest media latch on to a hot "investment" trend, it's usually past time to get out of the market. Flipping watches or flipping houses has ups and downs and the media are normally late to the party.
Amazing! I've noticed this downward trend as well. Great news 👏
I just bought a silver dial Overseas gen 3 for 21K lightly used. Pretty happy with the purchase considering that same watch was well above $35,000 just a year ago. It’s been on the top of my list for years, but I couldn’t afford to pay premium on it.
Congrats!
@@JohnPWatches Thanks John, the watch is a pure class! 🙂
may I ask - where did you make the buy ? what sites did you refer to ? thanks ~ JDS/CT@@aleksandarvelickovic980
@@aleksandarvelickovic980 jesi ti nas srbin?
I'm still... never, ever buying anything for more than the manufacturer is asking for the product new (when a product is currently being produced). Every market in history that has superseded the price of a currently running product, has quickly crashed (relatively). So intrinsically the businesses who gamble with the timing of these phenomena are "fly-by-night" and/or "get rich quick" operations, with whom I have no interest in doing business. Delray has proven to me to be an honest trader of timepieces.
Spot on! 100%
Correct answer 👌
15 minutes of talking about nothing
Thanks for watching
The Rolex market is still strong for people who buy at retail. Maybe its over for grey market dealers but its great for someone like me. I keep my watches but if i chose to sell id get my money back after years of enjoyment. Rolex still the safest watch to buy. I love Omega for example but id only ever buy used because you lose a fortune walking out the door
I thought omega has good resale value
😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮😮
Wait, is that a Anthony Farrer prison haircut that you are sporting?
I think it’s time to buy that vintage Rolex you always wanted.. The GMT’S prices are now more in line with what value the watch actually possesses.. IMHO
Second hand prices will continue dropping in 2024/2025 and stabilising after. Upward trend from 2030….
If you want to buy a watch, it seems to be a good thing that prices are decreasing.
Like a good friend of mine says, the wheel always turns full circle
You need to consider the difference between mean and median. The “average” net worth is going to be skewed by the very few ultra millionaires and billionaires. The average person is far from being a millionaire. The same article says the median is more like $192,000 which is far more believable. Only 9% of Americans have a net worth of a million or more.
These videos/ opinions are what creates negativity
Watches sinking like the housing market.👎🏾
The only people who lost money are those who paid 2x or 3x for those demand pieces ...how ridiculous was that.
not sure this video title aged so well,.. here we are 10 months later and you still can't get a single stainless sport Rolex at an AD, and some PM models like the GMT Meteorite are on a. 4 year wait list.. I love my VC, AP and PP, but Rolex is borderline price inelastic... the reason some PM models are going below MSRP is many simply can't afford them.
You buy a rolex because you love it. It is not an investment...its a luxury item.
A consumer, sure
That’s true for we true watch fans. But the money printing created a millions of quick buck artists, the same people who bought LE Nikes and other collectibles.
I don't like predicators. The world is ending? Maybe, maybe not, but for sure it wont stop me to wear something nice on the wrist ;)
Thank fuk for that. Nice watches but way too overrated
Imagine watches costing less it’s shocking I got a a watch that tells the time for £49 a Casio g shock it’s amazing. Time 24 hours a day.
Why are these gray market dealers still asking me to pay 1800- 2800 k above retail for black and white dial date just. What a joke. 😅
how can it be done if you cannot find an unworn 2023 sub full set for under $14,700 ?
124060 full set, unworn, '23, part sticker going for 12.4k USD in the UK.
Not true. As evidenced from these commenters here who all feel “lucky” to be able to buy a Rolex for only a few thousand dollars more than MSRP and wait a year or better.
Rolex has these buyers by the balls.
They’re the same people who bought Chrysler minivans in 1984 for $5k over MSRP and are the first in line to buy a new Toyota/Lexus for $25k over MSRP with no date of delivery or options in sight.
in market to pull trigger on a Rollie & watchin cooling off...tho out of curiosity been checkin "Grand Seiko " - the more u lookin at a "GS" so freakin. appealing ....but Tudor black bay a boring sensible bargain for everyday... otherwise "Omega" camp has the "Ploprof" 🔥
I picked up a 14060m in very good condition for 9600 CAD before taxes recently. There's a lot of great deals on older watches absolutely.
I wore my Seadweller 4000 every day since 1084. Unfortunately a few weeks ago I it when I fell and the sapphire cracked, but I cannot afford a new sapphire at current prices which is more than my watch cost in 1984. You will never say that the watch is 50 years old.
As a decades long Rolex owner(not a collector) I am amazed and disgusted by the folly and tulipmania of prices for status symbol watches like Rolex and PP ! So much so that IMHO it's become a 'cliche' to wear one and be associated with tatted up ex-cons dealing in Rolex and or gang bangers and youtube dorks bragging about their rolex collections! People today are sheep!
the bottom is still a year away
A little disappointed - was expecting to see some examples, stats not just chatter among industry insiders. Because as far as I can tell on the public, non- membership sites, after the drawdown that happened 3-4 mo ago, current ref SS Rolex sport watches have stabilized and dealers aren’t willing to even give a 3% discount for paying w bank transfer instead of cc. Unless the piece is really beaten up and abused, then it’s distressed priced.
Last night’s BTC surge may not help.
In 2017, the Apple Watch overtook Rolex as the number one watch in the world. Rolex watches are over-valued. In terms of quality to price ratio, there are other brands that offer equal or even better quality for a lot less. Stripped of all the history, design and marketing, its only function is to tell time. And your cellphone does that better and more accurately.
I'm waiting to get a sub for close to retail. It's getting there. I just want to own one.
The Rolex falsified hype made me really focus in contributing to their demise. Before any haters previously owned 5 steel rolex's now treated like a second rate citizen lol
Men's Rolex watches are still a scam. Tell you why women's Rolex's are being sold at 1/4 the price of men's Rolex? C'mon, 36mm to 40mm is 4 times the price?
How many times are u gonna repeat the same thing ?
14k for a Daytona
Now 28 k that’s not dead! Just don’t buy Rollie on the secondary… market
If no one wants them like you state … stay on the list and get your Rollie …😅works for me.
Oisin Omally just died a little inside because of this “doom and gloom.”
I still don't get why Rolex is such a big deal it's no different then any other watch that I own and I have lots of watches from different brands. My favorite watch is a Seiko that I purchased for 1 hundred bucks 10 years ago its my daily wear watch and it looks great too.
I get a lot of grief online for saying id never buy a sub, speedy as they are too common. i prefer to be unique . Prefer brands like GO, sinn, Nomos . Quality and unlikely to see someone else wearing the brand nevermind the same model. Also i like the idea most normal people dont know what you are wearing why attract gold diggers/muggers if you dont have to.
Rolex watches are done .. think you added boom there which is extra .
The way the AD treated end customers was shit and hope this brand never recovers from COVID and what it became
Just fantastic truthful video John. Thank you.
Thanks for watching!
Buy a Super Clone for a $1000 and invest the rest. You need experts with a microscope to tell the difference. Save Your $$ .
Not at all !!! Rolex and luxury is never over. :)
It’s just a correction… stop pretending / hoping it’s finished for all. Wait for interest rates to decrease and the trend will go back up.
Not so much, IMO. Good luck finding an AD with a GMT II Pepsi.
Haha „date just club boring for me“! Okey brother let’s do poadast together
it is ironic. rolex made themselves loose customers by witholding their products to said customers.
Great content as always! If you remove the spike in prices, do you believe watches are appreciating at the rate you would expect for the Big 3?
I absolutely agree. Take out the spike and we still see the prices higher than pre-spike albeit it is slightly trending downward as we speak but no way near bust yet
You bring up an interesting point. Watch values as whole should at least keep up with inflation, which as a hobby is more than fine with me.
I love my datejust.
Im sorry, even though im not a Rolex fan, i think this video is more click bait than fact... Rolex's are still the only true investment watch and go to watch for most average weathy non enthusiasts looking for a status symbol or graduation/wedding gift or what not. I do agree though that ive noticed a growing disdain for the brand among enthusiasts because theyir customer service has rubbed so many people the wrong way abd theyve come out with some trully awful stuff like that emogi one that seems was originally designed for autism awareness.
This 💯
The rolex super clones has become too good. That pisses off the owners of the gens.
Rolex is over-saturated. Especially the Submariner. Everybody makes Submariners clones and copies. The look is way overblown. I like vintage watches, especially Omega . Many of these watches are unique-looking and are very reliable. I own several. I also own a Green Alpinist
and my Rolex clone the $49.00 two-tone 38mm blue Invicta. It is an accurate watch. My next
watch is a Nivada Gretchen Anartic. I have a yen for a Vacheron Constantin watch. To me Rolex
especially the Submariner is way overblown. I owned in the 1980s a Rolex Submariner. In that time period it was a watch that was good but not overhyped. If the public turns on Rolex, and I think they are, Rolex may need to reboot with a drastic new line of watches. Rolex is very stale and overpriced.
Kinda like the Porsche 911 looks just like it did 50 years ago right? Stale? They make 1 million plus watches a year and there are none on the shelves at the AD, are you serious?
@@cdmorrissy3692 It is an investment you can wear and enjoy, but you are right there are better ways to invest! As far as fakes go , if I couldn't afford one I'd rather wear a cheap authentic watch. A lab grown diamond looks like the real thing also, but it is not the real McCoy.
It’s in free fall only no ones buying not even dealers
John, just wanted to say that your delivery has drastically improved. I remember almost a year ago I gave you some constructive feedback because I saw the potential in you and MAN , great job on improving your presentation and delivery skills. You have really honed your ability to convey a message. We are humans and we will have human mannerisms with quirks but man, i really love your clear, thoughtful, and to the point style.
Thank you!
I’m surprised where pp5990 is now
It's dangerous taking an average when there's so many extremely high outliers in the US as in multi billionaires, there are approx 240k US UHNWI - classified as 30m USD net worth and over, if all at 30m and divided out equally it would make 7.2m millionaires, it's much safer to take median which is about 750k as about 8.8% of the US population are millionaires with an average of 2.2m USD.
This is the perfect storm that actual enthusiasts (as opposed to newbie speculators) have been waiting for. Rolex dramatically increasing production capacity, Rolex taking a huge position in retail, and jaded/burned crypto kids dumping their holdings. I might actually buy back in to Rolex next year.
I’m waiting for an Air King.
You are very amusing Sir !Although I do appreciate your knowledge, Only the very rich,what used to be called the one percenters can afford even the "Lower prices" The other 99 percent of us even at the higher end find food and rent more important than a "Luxury" wristwatch! you're quote that that the "Average American" makes One million dollars is morbidly laughable! I believe this is why Aliexpress watches are selling so briskly I see China Aliexpress supplanting the Swiss and even Japanese higher end Market!! you are knowledgeable but you're not seeing the real world!
unbelievable!
But true
I’d get a Rolex but the average wrist watcher wouldn’t know the real from the fake.. they priced themselves out of a massive market and their customer service I’ve heard is really bad. Can’t find parts etc. I’m a vintage Heuer collector and I’ll stick with that brand.
The “boom” isn’t over yet. As a matter of fact, I personally have not seen any price drops. Maybe they have dropped, but very very slightly (IMO). I’m still being told by various AD’s that the wait list for a Sub Date is 3-4 years. Gray market price is still greedily high.
Agreed. A Rootbeer is still what, 19-23k? A Pepsi 23k? A Batman 18k?
Even a DayDate 40 is 42k.
I’m not seeing discounts on the desirable models
@@RootBeerGMT I’ve seen some Batmen in the $16’s - still high. And even the Explorer II’s are asking ~40% over MSRP for the 226570 (current reference).
If Bitcoin keeps pumping prices will start going back up except for a small number of distressed people who lose their jobs or businesses.
Just give it a little bit more time a lot of things are about to go on sale and watches will be one of them
Manny people in the list will pull out after reality suggests theres no money in the flip
I enjoy listening to your take on watches and the market. It's hard to believe you're a business partner with Federico, his arrogant, egotistical personality is in stark contrast to your vibe. Look forward to listening to your take going forward.
Could you do a video of AP or PP watches that fall into the $25-35k range?
I registered interest for my first PM Rolex ( YG Daytona on Oysterflex) and it makes you wonder if you get to the $35k mark, can you realistically go upstream and get a nice pre-owned AP or PP for this price? Thanks for the video!
No one has any money to buy watches at this time,crazy rates and stocks are doing horrible, wait until the rates soften people will go crazy on housing, cars, watches etc it’s definitely a cycle.
To assume that those who love watches but decided to sit out during the irrational times would start buying just because the prices have come down would be really foolish at best . These people are smelling blood. They will enter only when there’s a big discount. If not, they will continue to live without these watches they are very used to it and probably happy wearing Apple Watch
Waffle for 15 minutes
Amazing news, I had a really nice experience at an AD the other day. Bonded with the saleswoman over Rolex history and vintage watches, and I put myself down for the green GMT. Told her it was to commemorate a special moment and she emailed me yesterday to tell me she sent a request to Rolex for the watch, and that I wouldn't have to accept it when it came in. I've heard of people having terrible experiences but I didn't. I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't be too long before I get the call. I'd never pay over retail and I'm not a flipper. If the watch comes, it comes. I didn't get the sense that she was lying to me and she didn't try to sell me anything else. I'm aware it's not an easy watch to get but the hype isn't as much as it was a year ago, so who knows?
You might get it, it’s basically a mistake / back to front lazy Rolex.
LOL, thanks for the positivity haha. I love the watch. Glad I won't be competing with you for one. Isn't every Rolex a lazy Rolex? If they just slapped that bezel on a standard GMT would that not be lazy?@@mkyhou1160
I had a good experience at a Rokex AD. yeah, I was told "Exhibition only", but was asked when I am retiring. When I said in 3 years, the AD said come in and I got you covered for whatever model you want.
Rolex Buble has burst
Steel Subs/GMTs/Daytonas very much in demand. Presidiums metal Rolex and non sports Rolex more or less lost some steam.
Im so glad i bought my 114060 at the AD in 2019 don't regret it one bit 👌.