There Are Now Even More Houses For Sale in the Greater Toronto Area - Will Real Estate Prices Drop?
HTML-код
- Опубликовано: 9 июл 2024
- The inventory of homes available for sale on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board has increased even more. We're looking at over three months of inventory now, almost touching four months -- which would put us closer to a buyer's market. But why aren't prices dropping that much... or at all in some places?
On this episode of Real Estate Chat, Robert Ede (www.unclebobexplains.com) and Johnder Perez (www.johnder.com) look at the June numbers so far to gauge where the summer market is headed.
At a glance: slow sales, lots of listings, but steady prices. Indicators suggest we're headed into a buyer's market. Some say we're already there. But certain neighbourhoods remain competitive. What gives?
We also talk about advice for home sellers -- depending on whether or not you really need to sell this summer.
And we tell buyers how to negotiate in this market.
Watch this episode to learn about the summer real estate market in the Greater Toronto Area and what you should know to make the right decision if you're making a move.
Back in the day, when I purchased my first home to live-in; that was Toronto in the early 1990s, first mortgages with rates of 8 to 9% and 9% to 10% were typical. People will have to accept the possibility that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. Pretty sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.
If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
@@LucasBenjamin-hv7sk Impressive can you share more info?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Annette Marie Holt for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I just looked this lady up out of curiosity and found her web page easily. Read through her qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.
Robert might not be the uncle you always wanted, but he’s the uncle you always needed!
😂😂😂
Soo. Do you think there might be change in the air? I am just wondering when a cycle shifts it shifts hard.
Tough to say. Predicting vs. projecting are two different things -- if we were to project what could happen, we'd have to watch how inventory levels are doing (are they staying the same... at these current heightened levels... or do we see absorption start to happen)... and at what point does inventory start decreasing (is it when BoC announces its next rate cut in July... or does it start to fall closer to September ahead of and in anticipation of the fall market?).
If we see inventory remain at these levels, it should follow that prices start to ease a bit, led by motivated sellers who have to sell and drop their price in order to do so.
The only thing that would counter that is if buyers decide to jump back into the market... but with sales the way they currently are, it doesn't look like that's happening just yet.
This summer is going to be unique in Toronto, GTA Ontario and surroundings. Bigger inventory, better choices. That 3.7 million homes in 7 years it's totally in the cards if we are going to maintain this pace. Brand new and resale in total. So, the plan is working for affordable housing. Are prices coming down a little bit? 100%. I am representing clients in over 30 cities. I can see these things every single day. Posting daily real estate news.
"No one wants house pricing to come down"
Me: i guess im no one.
More like no exisiting home owners want prices to come down, people left on the sidelines would cheer joy if the prices came down
"Interest rates are why a million dollars is expensive"
I would rather have an interest rate of 1 million percent but a principal value of only 7 dollars rather than a principal value of 1 million and an interest rate of 7 percent. I would just pay the loan off in the first day.
So, no, a million dollars is expensive because it is a million dollars; not because of interest rates. But we have normalized million dollar home prices over the past decade that people will call me crazy for saying an affordable home price should be closer to 350k - 500k for a fully detached freehold home in the GTA in a good neighborhood. For reference, at that price all u can actually get is a 400 sq ft studio apartment or if u do find more sq ft ur prob in a bad neighborhood.
You’re certainly not no one.
Million dollar homes do exist why - because cheap money via low interest rates led to a run up in demand and buying not too long ago, which drove prices up, which were relatively “affordable” due to low rates…. and in a sense these prices became seemingly normal… hard to imagine a detached home at $800k… or even $500k as it was before…. But now rates have gone up…. And the $1m mortgage at 2 ish percent isn’t as affordable at 6 ish percent.
So the story of no inventory is now evaporating. Like the story about investors coming in. And the story about a flood of imagrants needing a home. As they are now leaving.
Here is the bottom line .
This is a housing bubble. And its bursting. The smart money is leaving first.
The bag holders will be left.
We will see this last a solid decade as the delevergaing phase contiues.
This is called price discovery.
There's always a new story in real estate. Kinda like a choose your own adventure book... except we can't really choose what happens next because aside from the choice of buying/selling or not, so many factors are out of our control.
Let's see where price discovery takes us. Because there's only really two immediate possibilities -- inventory eases off due to buyers entering the market again... perhaps due to confidence and lower rates... who knows.... or despite rate cuts... buyers don't have the appetite to buy... inventory remains at lofty levels... and prices cool into the end of 2024....
It is interesting how poor the realtors vision is. They damaged the market in my opinion and now trying to put art the country situation. Looking at the reality Canada is not in a good situation and lowering the rates is the worse thing that could be done due the high inflation so if expecting that the rates will go down with no consequence is an indicative of a real bad administration. I do not think will be down that much or will really damage the future of this country. The house prices must go down at least 50% to accommodate the economy. For that the rates should not be down, money laundry must be under control, foreign investors regulations to be reinforced… otherwise the a Canadian citizens will have no future and no home …. Think about it and act with social responsibility … that is all
Mentally that even pay more for your house as its investment tool should stop .. people are willing to pay 50 to 60 percent of their income towards mortgage!!!
It’s interesting to see the comments anti-realtors and paint all with one brush but not have a clear rationale or justification as to how it’s “every realtors” fault that the market got damaged.
Do you own or rent?
Do you understand that since the 1960’s, real estate has “appreciated” on average 7%, and not a single year or even a decade has seen a 50% drop in prices?
Do you understand what banks and governments are doing - whether good or bad is up to debate - to keep prices lofty?
Do you think realtors have some sort of agenda to mess up the market and the country?
Before you paint everyone with one brush, do some research, justify your point of view, listen to what’s actually being said rather than jumping to a conclusion such as “all _____ are _____” and make a sound argument based on actual data.
Unfortunately you and I are on the same boat, except I’m using data and market experience to rationalize what is happening.
Someone who says prices will drop 50% - while not utterly impossible - doesn’t understand what’s happening currently and at present time with the market.
@@alaalrashaeideh1154to me this financially doesn’t make sense. Whether or not it’s the current reality is the question. Whether or not it’s good for people - we know the answer to that.
Year Average Price % Change
1966 $21,360
1967 $24,078 12.72%
1968 $26,732 11.02%
1969 $28,929 8.22%
1970 $29,492 1.95%
1971 $30,426 3.17%
1972 $32,513 6.86%
1973 $40,605 24.89%
1974 $52,806 30.05%
1975 $57,581 9.04%
1976 $61,389 6.61%
1977 $64,559 5.16%
1978 $67,333 4.30%
1979 $70,830 5.19%
1980 $75,694 6.87%
1981 $90,203 19.17%
1982 $95,496 5.87%
1983 $101,626 6.42%
1984 $102,318 0.68%
1985 $109,094 6.62%
1986 $138,925 27.34%
1987 $189,105 36.12%
1988 $229,635 21.43%
1989 $273,698 19.19%
1990 $255,020 -6.82%
1991 $234,313 -8.12%
1992 $214,971 -8.25%
1993 $206,490 -3.95%
1994 $208,921 1.18%
1995 $203,028 -2.82%
1996 $198,150 -2.40%
1997 $211,307 6.64%
1998 $216,815 2.61%
1999 $228,372 5.33%
2000 $243,255 6.52%
2001 $251,508 3.39%
2002 $275,231 9.43%
2003 $293,067 6.48%
2004 $315,231 7.56%
2005 $335,907 6.56%
2006 $351,941 4.77%
2007 $376,236 6.90%
2008 $379,347 0.83%
2009 $395,460 4.25%
2010 $431,262 9.05%
2011 $464,989 7.82%
2012 $497,073 6.90%
2013 $522,951 5.21%
2014 $566,611 8.35%
2015 $622,118 9.80%
2016 $729,821 17.31%
2017 $822,496 12.70%
2018 $787,800 -4.22%
2019 $819,043 3.97%
2020 $929,623 13.50%
2021 $1,095,381 17.83%
Jorge - up to recent peak there has not been a single year nor decade seeing a 50% decline.
Moat of the listing's on MLS are still asking delusional prices. Sorry folks, get ready to sell for less....you might even LOSE money. Haha
The motivated sellers drop and sell. Others are still stuck on early 2024 (i.e. spring) prices. This will be a battle of motivated versus unmotivated sellers. Motivated sellers who must sell will set the pace for price -- and if that causes a drop in prices, it may start a downward momentum of price overall. We'll have to see how the battle of the sellers plays out.
2025/26 market is here and is going to get much here
Hi Johnder , good interview. He was just telling how it is . Did not suger cote the real estate market. Who is he?
@@johnderperez who is the person you interviewed?
@@fairport24Fazal long time no see! Sorry I didn’t get it the first time. The person I’m speaking with on this show is Robert Ede who hosts this channel with me. He’s a real estate broker who has been trading since the 70’s.
Bubble crash 😂
If Sellers wish to execute they will need to re-assess price discovery expectations commensurate with ambient GTA market financial conditions relative to servicing median income potential.
Simple put....
BoC rates must now be maintained substantially positive above the 2% inflation target in real terms from here on out..... intending the GTA valuations arrived at under the prior unprecedented low rate fueled Financial conditions are no longer relevant.... with only the DEBT remaining which is no one else's problem but the Seller's to deal with.
If you need to 'Sell' vis-a-vi unsustainable leveraging ?
you need to drop your 'normalcy bias' and realize whatever so-called 'equity' you thought you had is already long gone !
True. In short - it’s reality time. Adjust price expectations or stay in the market until price catches up. Motivated sellers will face the reality and adjust to sell their house. Unmotivated sellers should take their listings off the market, otherwise they’ll reach a frustration point.
The world has normalized debt. It's disgusting how much people pay in interest and act like they "own" their home.
Unless someone pays cash for their home, they’re renting money from the bank.
In hopes that the appreciation over the long term, and stability of their dwelling, will make enough sense to justify it.