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Yes -- if the price movement over the next few months follows the trend line. Stay the course, remain financially vigilant, as you will weather this out in the long term. In the short term, unless we see strong support of prices, and the 'highs' of each bump up don't get lower and lower, it may suggest the pattern Robert mentioned in the video... similar to the 1986 to 1996 movement. Let's hope not.

Very likely. I'm surprised it's not yet 10% down. Many GTA markets are down much more than that since 2022. So it depends on where you bought.

@@alexrubin5955 that's fair. Although October '22 is a lot different than May '22. My particular neighborhood has shown decent resistance "so far".

Thanks, glad you found it informative!

@@johnderperez Not exactly informative, I've been saying that same thing all along. And I'm a realtor lol

That's the irony. As rates were on the way up, the buying continued, 'til buyers saw just how high it was getting. On the way down... mortgage payments should be more affordable relatively speaking as the cost of borrowing is decreasing... but buyers want more. As Robert says -- buyers will jump when either (a) rates start going up again (and can not drop anymore) or (b) prices start to go up. Sellers aren't quite desperate... yet.

Nailed it!

It will be over when the majority of 'normal' people no longer consider RE a good investment. Many years away imo

Yup, once the 'goes up forever' mindset fades it will trend lower in real terms for a LONG time imo.

It's our pleasure -- thank you for your support and kind words!

😬😬😬

Yes, we were a bit late to the party on this one.

Not sure about the loophole but I'm sure if you somehow pulled that off, the government would find a way to figure out what you did and probably tax accordingly anyway. We need a tax accountant to answer that. A tax that penalizes gains would, I presume, reduce supply as you said -- why would anyone want to sell their unit and pay the extra amount now being charged capital tax on gains versus keeping it, especially if held in a corporation?

If anything, it'll get worse. Very soon, affordable housing will no longer be affordable. So anything anyone want to do, I will advise they do it now because the prices today will look like dips tomorrow. Until the Fed clamps down even further, I think we're going to see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't halfway rip the band-aid off.

Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; get your money (as much as you can) out of the housing market and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes.If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.

@@LucasBenjamin-hv7sk Impressive can you share more info?

There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with Annette Marie Holt for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.

I just looked this lady up out of curiosity and found her web page easily. Read through her qualifications, which were all very impressive. So I scheduled a call with her.

😂😂😂

Unless someone pays cash for their home, they’re renting money from the bank.

In hopes that the appreciation over the long term, and stability of their dwelling, will make enough sense to justify it.

You’re certainly not no one. Million dollar homes do exist why - because cheap money via low interest rates led to a run up in demand and buying not too long ago, which drove prices up, which were relatively “affordable” due to low rates…. and in a sense these prices became seemingly normal… hard to imagine a detached home at $800k… or even $500k as it was before…. But now rates have gone up…. And the $1m mortgage at 2 ish percent isn’t as affordable at 6 ish percent.

There's always a new story in real estate. Kinda like a choose your own adventure book... except we can't really choose what happens next because aside from the choice of buying/selling or not, so many factors are out of our control. Let's see where price discovery takes us. Because there's only really two immediate possibilities -- inventory eases off due to buyers entering the market again... perhaps due to confidence and lower rates... who knows.... or despite rate cuts... buyers don't have the appetite to buy... inventory remains at lofty levels... and prices cool into the end of 2024....

@@johnderperez who is the person you interviewed?

@@fairport24Fazal long time no see! Sorry I didn’t get it the first time. The person I’m speaking with on this show is Robert Ede who hosts this channel with me. He’s a real estate broker who has been trading since the 70’s.

True. In short - it’s reality time. Adjust price expectations or stay in the market until price catches up. Motivated sellers will face the reality and adjust to sell their house. Unmotivated sellers should take their listings off the market, otherwise they’ll reach a frustration point.

Mentally that even pay more for your house as its investment tool should stop .. people are willing to pay 50 to 60 percent of their income towards mortgage!!!

It’s interesting to see the comments anti-realtors and paint all with one brush but not have a clear rationale or justification as to how it’s “every realtors” fault that the market got damaged. Do you own or rent? Do you understand that since the 1960’s, real estate has “appreciated” on average 7%, and not a single year or even a decade has seen a 50% drop in prices? Do you understand what banks and governments are doing - whether good or bad is up to debate - to keep prices lofty? Do you think realtors have some sort of agenda to mess up the market and the country? Before you paint everyone with one brush, do some research, justify your point of view, listen to what’s actually being said rather than jumping to a conclusion such as “all _____ are _____” and make a sound argument based on actual data. Unfortunately you and I are on the same boat, except I’m using data and market experience to rationalize what is happening. Someone who says prices will drop 50% - while not utterly impossible - doesn’t understand what’s happening currently and at present time with the market.

@@alaalrashaeideh1154to me this financially doesn’t make sense. Whether or not it’s the current reality is the question. Whether or not it’s good for people - we know the answer to that.

Year Average Price % Change 1966 $21,360 1967 $24,078 12.72% 1968 $26,732 11.02% 1969 $28,929 8.22% 1970 $29,492 1.95% 1971 $30,426 3.17% 1972 $32,513 6.86% 1973 $40,605 24.89% 1974 $52,806 30.05% 1975 $57,581 9.04% 1976 $61,389 6.61% 1977 $64,559 5.16% 1978 $67,333 4.30% 1979 $70,830 5.19% 1980 $75,694 6.87% 1981 $90,203 19.17% 1982 $95,496 5.87% 1983 $101,626 6.42% 1984 $102,318 0.68% 1985 $109,094 6.62% 1986 $138,925 27.34% 1987 $189,105 36.12% 1988 $229,635 21.43% 1989 $273,698 19.19% 1990 $255,020 -6.82% 1991 $234,313 -8.12% 1992 $214,971 -8.25% 1993 $206,490 -3.95% 1994 $208,921 1.18% 1995 $203,028 -2.82% 1996 $198,150 -2.40% 1997 $211,307 6.64% 1998 $216,815 2.61% 1999 $228,372 5.33% 2000 $243,255 6.52% 2001 $251,508 3.39% 2002 $275,231 9.43% 2003 $293,067 6.48% 2004 $315,231 7.56% 2005 $335,907 6.56% 2006 $351,941 4.77% 2007 $376,236 6.90% 2008 $379,347 0.83% 2009 $395,460 4.25% 2010 $431,262 9.05% 2011 $464,989 7.82% 2012 $497,073 6.90% 2013 $522,951 5.21% 2014 $566,611 8.35% 2015 $622,118 9.80% 2016 $729,821 17.31% 2017 $822,496 12.70% 2018 $787,800 -4.22% 2019 $819,043 3.97% 2020 $929,623 13.50% 2021 $1,095,381 17.83% Jorge - up to recent peak there has not been a single year nor decade seeing a 50% decline.

The motivated sellers drop and sell. Others are still stuck on early 2024 (i.e. spring) prices. This will be a battle of motivated versus unmotivated sellers. Motivated sellers who must sell will set the pace for price -- and if that causes a drop in prices, it may start a downward momentum of price overall. We'll have to see how the battle of the sellers plays out.

It can be complicated to navigate but the simpler ones won’t show you the details as you need to see it. We’ll try to do a simplified version and explanation within each episode.

Reminds me of calculus class! What a nightmare!

Tough to say. Predicting vs. projecting are two different things -- if we were to project what could happen, we'd have to watch how inventory levels are doing (are they staying the same... at these current heightened levels... or do we see absorption start to happen)... and at what point does inventory start decreasing (is it when BoC announces its next rate cut in July... or does it start to fall closer to September ahead of and in anticipation of the fall market?). If we see inventory remain at these levels, it should follow that prices start to ease a bit, led by motivated sellers who have to sell and drop their price in order to do so. The only thing that would counter that is if buyers decide to jump back into the market... but with sales the way they currently are, it doesn't look like that's happening just yet.

Because Canada has a plan to grow its population slowly and plan the economy ahead for the next 50 years. They don't want to overdevelop, and they certainly want to keep the prices high. The core of the issue is that Western economies, in general, can not compete in many industries due to disparity in overall standards. Canada can not produce EVs or anything really for the price that China can, or Brazil, India, and so on... labor costs way more here than any of these other poorer countries. Thus, real estate holds a good chunk of the overall economy. All this mumbo jumbo about clean energy is a way to preserve energy reserves and also a way to impose "legal measures" against China, and this is now being revealed very clearly by statements from EU officials that say "China is overproducing and hurting EU countries" as if something is wrong with producing at cheap. The whole World economy is heavily distorted and it gets more divided as the years go by. Canada is trying to survive by squeezing the middle class, but it can't because this state of the economy requires growth which simply is not there. They could go build like crazy, but see what happened in Ontario now? The federal government gave 270 million dollars to accelerate affordable housing and that money is sucked up by local government on endless fees for permits and regulations and whatnot. Too much debt, too little growth, way too much bureaucracy and inefficiencies. This country needs a new way of coming about its economy and financial plan.

Rates would have to drop a lot for numbers to start making sense. The problem is... if it did drop aggressively, buyers would (theoretically) bid up prices again. But the most sensical thing you mentioned is the fact that investors need cash flow to justify an investment. It has to make sense. There's only so much 'hope and dreams' that can be placed in appreciation afforded by subsidizing negative cash flow.

You're very welcome, and thanks for watching! You're on the right track. Look for the deals. Motivated sellers. Home that you absolutely love and will live in for 10... or more years. And fits your budget. You've got the idea.

Undeniably factual. Despite my absence of prior investing acumen, I ventured into investments pre-pandemic and managed to amass a profit of about $450k within that year. Essentially, I solely relied on professional counsel.

Lately, I've been researching advisors, but the market updates I've encountered haven't been very positive. Who's your guide?

Evelyn Infurna Constable is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

SHE’S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS WITH THE BELOW NAME.

Also -- homeowners who were thinking of buying likely listed first, hence the jump in listings after the rate cut. The thinking is... what happens if we buy... but can't sell our house? So they list first, adding to the existing inventory... while waiting for buyers to bite... but buyers are waiting... for sellers to become more motivated and drop prices.

Scary to think that’s possible. We’ll have to see when the first price transition happens… or if some magical factor comes in at some point this summer to save the day and bring the market back on track…. At what point do further interest rate cuts flick buyers back into the market and hold prices steady, eat up inventory and cause sales to rise again?

@@johnderperez I think it’s a return to fundamentals, with a real cost of capital. There are going to be casualties. The casualties will be everything and everyone. Even as tax payers we may be casualties of a government hell bent on trying to save a market that is imho in dire need of cleaning up. I still think we will see a lost decade at some point, just like the 90s.

@@EricAlHarb for sure, we'll see signs of where this is going soon. I want to remain optimistic, that somehow things get fixed... but how that actually happens.... 🤷‍♂

@@johnderperez well fundamentals are like a weight. Eventually when the cap rates make sense investors and buyers will return to the market. I suspect the BoC will end 2025 at 3% which means fixed rates are 4.5%. At 4.5% the housing market will see a 50% decline from the peak. Early days…but certain products like shitboxes in the sky won’t be worth the cost of carrying them. You’d be lucky to get 100 a square foot for those shitboxes.