There could be a hidden clubhouse factor in this. I appreciated Josh’s fire, (although it was more like explosive) but when he is not exploding, what energy is he providing? Does he sulk? Is he quiet? Too quiet? Attitude? You can see how Santana is a quality professional in the clubhouse. Like Hedges, he can bring something and maybe something had to leave.
Rosenthal mentioned today how Seattle offered more years for him and the impact he had in the clubhouse there with less emotion. Was interestingly worded
@@davidvankirk7721 Naylor is just a math problem. He’s probably a great guy. But he is not athletic and didn’t get better in this area. That means he would not have been extended at any cost, even free cuz he would be taking the place of a base stealing 1B who can play multiple positions. That’s how you win on a budget. Pay guys who are over valued in multiple areas that the market don’t respect yet like Andres Giménez . Naylor has power and that’s it. Someone will pay for his power. But arias and others have power, but also can steal bases and provide plus level defense and range. With the new shift rules, range is everything. lol I should call in one day and nerd out on baseball. And in 2025 MLB baseball is more than just hitting. What are you doing when you’re slumping? If you ain’t picking ball’s out the dirt, running aggressively making other plays than you’re useless. Lane Thomas is the type they want. When he’s struggling at the plate he’s still an impact. Then when it aligns for him and he hits too he’s a monster.
Never realized how true this is until you said it. The guy seems to be emotionless unless he is exploding with aggressive energy, could be this as well as other factors
@@LockedonGuardiansnot sure why any player wants to sign with Cleveland anymore aside from someone like Santana. The second you have a bad year or even bad half after signing a contract, they find a way to deal you (Andres and Josh Bell), They preach culture but show no loyalty. They didn’t need to make that Naylor move but couldn’t help themselves not being able to get “something”. This type of mentality and behavior lends to developing players only to fill your roster, it’s borderline ruthless. Why would Kwan even think of signing an extension now after what they did to Andres? Just counter to all the family and strong culture the organization preaches. I read the players were not happy after the Andres trade, you risk ruining the culture with this non-stop balancing the now with future mentality. I get it, but they keep building teams that can’t get past a certain point in the playoffs due to lacking a few big time bats. Teams that require non stop pinch hitters to play the odds just to match up against a big market team. Spend the money for two yrs, Dolan has it. He is a top 10 net worth owner in MLB. Prove to me they didn’t generate $350-$400m last year. I detailed to you how I got the calculation. Let’s not forget the stadium renovation aid the city has provided several times. They can easily afford a $150m roster every year.
If Ortiz, Cecconi, and Brito all turn out to be average to above average in their respective positions than this team is already far better than last year.
Gentlemen, enjoy your families this holiday. Great year. So appreciative of the community you have created for us fans and the mature insights you both bring to this table. God bless.
Agree, part of my frustration is it seems like the FO is hesitant to improve positions because they’re holding the position for an unproven prospect player. When you have obvious needs you have to make changes regardless of who may be here in a year or two, make that unproven player force a change by their play. Otherwise, we’re never going to field a team built to compete for a championship. Then again, I think the FO’s primary goal is to be competitive in the Central.
I expect Josh Naylor to regress in 2025. A stat line close to .240 avg and 16 HR with 30 days on disabled list. The sleeper in the Cleveland offense could be Arias with a Stat line of .280 avg, 25 HR. Wishing you a Merry "Big Boy" Christmas!
Just to be clear the Mason-Dixon Line is a North South dividing line made famous by the Rebellion War. East West you probably want to use the Mississippi River. Thank you for attending my TED talk
We won’t know the value of a trade until we see what happens with the return. Josh wasn’t going to be a Guard in 2026. We got in Santana an equal risk/production value. We got a return, instead of not getting a return.
Great analysis guys! Signing Shane Bieber makes them better for 2025. The other additions are attempts to keep the team competitive moving forward. I like all of the moves they’ve made so far. I like Naylor, but I feel comfortable with Santana instead.
@@LockedonGuardians I appreciated Josh, but objectively wasn't a fan with his inconsistency and seemed to chase at a lot of the worst times you just needed contact. I understand Carlos risk but getting a promising pitcher that fits this organization and pick 72 with Carlos coming is a big upgrade defensively for a staff that is a ground ball staff. I love Ortiz as well for this organization and has very good upside still being young as well.
It seems for Cleveland as a low market, contend every year mindset, that trades to improve the year ahead has to happen at the trade deadline. There you can address the specific needs, for a legitimate playoff possible team. Pre Season FA signings have to fall into Cleveland lap because they are not able to compete financially. I would like to see someone like Ward fall to them.
The ceiling is higher Noel/Santana @ first could be a big step forward. If Noel tanks, Santana is healthy. He raises the floor. Flexibility improves. Noel can be put in positions to succeed. Depth is improved, Naylor is injury prone to the point he may be done in 3 years. The pitching has more depth. You have an opportunity to get a franchise player with competive balance pick.
I saw them moving Naylor regardless. He is not athletic and can’t play multiple positions. So it was only a matter of time. The team is looking to be more athletic, steal more bases and play multiple defensive positions. That’s why they been sitting on Arias for so long. I been saying that they love him even thought they never play him. I could see him getting time at 1B and then we can try better bats at SS until arias sinks or swims.
Like how the Guards are stocking up with PITCHING!!!!!! In the words of the late great Pete Franklin..."It's pitching, pitching and more PITCHING" Love the number of switch hitters we have as well. Unfortunately Josh's body type won't hold up! It's MANZ time and fingers crossed that Brito or BAZZANA go Bananas!!
I see 39 yr old Santana and 28 yr old Naylor as pretty much a wash (which sounds surprising). Naylor definitely still has a higher production ceiling, but man I have a hard time imagining he plays anywhere close to 150 games again next year. He's gained so much weight and his swing is just so violent... I like the idea of getting at least something out of Naylor before his contract expired, AND getting an equal replacement in Santana. Welcome home, 'los!
I’m done complaining . I try to root for the teams I enjoy with an open mind . Still grumpy with the weird way Vogt managed his bullpen and team in playoffs . Well I guess I still complain . I have no expectations this coming year !
@@LockedonGuardians yeah with the browns it never comes!!! At least we get a chance about once a decade with the guards. Last year was probably one of the more fun seasons ever to watch
We had a team ops vs. RHP of .685 in a league where the avg is .704. Josh led our team with an .800 ops vs. righties. Santana had .676 OPS vs. righties. Our strength was already vs LHP. League avg is .701, ours .751. Josh stinks vs lefties and Santana had a .976 OPS vs lefties last year. We subtracted from an area we were already deficient and added to an area we were already strong. We may recoup in overall value with Cecconi and the pick but this is an L for 2025.
I think I figured out what is happening here. The Guardians rarely make short-term decisions in the offseason. That's why people struggle with the question, "Does this move make the team better (for 2025)?". The team doesn't think that way. The two trades that were made recently were for the long-term, not for 2025. The Santana signing, which is still not yet confirmed by Chris Antonetti BTW, is the only short-term move and was only made because they don't feel that Manzardo is ready to be the fulltime 1B yet. Because of the financial constraints placed on this team by ownership, the front office can't afford to assume that if they acquire players X, Y, and Z, they will automatically be back in the ALCS or World Series. Every season is different, even if you return the same players and add new players. This is especially true with bullpens which are always unpredictable from one season to the next and the bullpen was the only real strength of this team this year. As many people have said in the past, this team just needs to be good enough to get back into the playoffs since anything can happen and I think it is good enough barring significant injuries.
I think this is all true, they helped the selves for the future and maybe now while also making a lateral move to make things more balanced with less ceiling
i think it might be more accurate to say that most decisions have both strategic (long term) and tactical (short term) considerations. but one thing the front office has done consistently more recently is rid themselves of players who are projected to underperform in relation to their contract. they learned their lessons struggling with the hafner contract followed by the bourn/swisher signings. they eventually ate straw's contract and clearly projected giminez to underperform (and i suspect, naylor as well). jeff, please talk more. i'm starting to fast forward when justin continues to repeat himself ad nauseum.
There were a lot of reasons to move Josh, I wonder if one of them was a looming arbitration case. You guys have stated how they hate going to Arbitration with anyone, and I would imagine if they wanted to avoid talking about weight and conditioning they wouldn't want it as a big argument with the arbitrator.
So very frustrated that we don't ever do anything to get better in the moment. Saw a report somewhere this weekend that the Guardians could be in on a trade to get Cease cuz SD wants to cut payroll. I could only chuckle.
Hard with the TV uncertainty mixes with the market size. SD is cutting salary because of how little money they got from the TV deal with MLB that Cleveland will start this year
Of the two trades (Andres and Josh) this one bothers me less. We replaced him with an older player with a longer track record. I think Carlos is probably worse now than Josh, but I can live with that swap and I understand fearing Josh’s profile My issue with this offseason so far is not any of the individual moves. All are defensible and can make sense as part of a larger framework. My issue is just as Justin said; I’m not sure we’re better now than we were at the end of the year. Coming off the ALCS that’s infuriating. The offseason isn’t over yet. I get it. But we are behaving more like we had the Twins season not our own
TV contracts looms very large they weren't ever going to add a ton of payroll due to money going away, twins dropped payroll by 40 mil last year after making the post season due to the same issues
To me this team still needs one more OF/1B/DH piece, like signing Jesse Winker, or a trade for Cedric Mullins. I still want another SP too, like Michael Lorenzen or Kyle Gibson. Also, do you think CJ Kayfus will have an impact in 2025 at the MLB level?
Winker they won't touch due to character stuff, lorenzen isn't their type of arm, and I don't think kayfus helps soon right now he can't hit velocity at all
Josh Naylor (Regression Potential) 1. Unsustainable Luck in Balls in Play: • BABIP: .246, slightly below league average (~.300). • However, his Ground Ball Rate (46.8%) is significantly high, limiting extra-base potential. Players with high ground ball rates often see defenses adjust, further reducing offensive output. 2. Splits Vulnerability: • OPS vs. Left-Handed Pitching: .637, a glaring weakness. • Struggles against lefties make him exploitable, particularly in late-game matchups, and could lead to lower productivity in 2025. 3. Power Metrics Stability: • Barrel Rate: 8.4%, slightly above average but not elite. • Hard Hit %: 40.2%, solid but not indicative of elite power. • His 31 home runs in 2024 may regress if contact quality dips, as it’s only modestly supported by advanced power metrics. Carlos Santana (Steady or Minor Regression) 1. Plate Discipline: • Walk Rate: 11.2%, consistent with career norms and among the league’s best. • Santana’s ability to control the zone ensures continued on-base reliability, minimizing major regression risks. 2. Power Metrics Decline Likely: • 2024 SLG: .420, slightly inflated by a Barrel Rate of 7.3% (above his career average of ~6%). • With age (38 in 2025), bat speed may decline, leading to a likely drop in home run totals from 23 to around 18-20. Summary: Josh Naylor’s productivity is at risk due to his reliance on balls in play, high ground ball rate, and left-handed pitching struggles. Carlos Santana, while facing potential age-related declines in power, remains steady due to his elite plate discipline and consistent on-base skills.
@ no you were right! I just edited and I apologize: I think I accidentally used his xwOBA. The overall point still stands though. Even with a lower BABIP, the quality of his hitting still signals regression.
I think it was EW that mentioned this a week or so ago, but someone looked at all the spending and it's pretty much all from the teams w/ settled TV deals that aren't having these revenue Qs At the time the Guards were the biggest spenders among the "insecure" teams just from Bieber.
Even tho Santana replaces Naylor & Bieber isn't making much more than Arb 3, they're still among the bigger spenders of teams in similar situations. Not justifying it, but it's more of a league wide issue creating bigger gaps than the numbers really show
Think it’s more so the front office thinks they can get better internally. Think the pitching lineup is already better than last year (Bieber, Bibee, Williams return year, and Ortiz) and full years from Manzardo, Noel, Delauter they think can help the lineup with an eventual Bazzana call up down the line late this year. Also with Santana now this team gets better at hitting lefties even more so. Kwan, Jose, Thomas, Fry, Santana, and Noel
I’m not going nuclear but frankly I’m not crazy about either of these deals. While I understand some of the pros it seems more like we could still be good in spite of more than we’re significantly better because of. I’m still hoping for a move that fits this latter category but it seems doubtful it will happen.
They tell the players go out into the community and let the fans know who you are....then turn around and trade those players with no thought to the fans. I get it I'm old enough to know it's a business. But, stop acting like you care about the fans. This was a lateral move and Carlos is 39. Even if he gives you homeruns he is still 39.
@ like I said we’re gonna assume a 39 year old is gonna be an all star 🤣, age regression definitely isn’t a thing. Naylor is way more likely to repeat last year.
What ever happened to the business model "it takes money to make money". Maybe if they tried to generate fan interest more people would come see this team. And Thank God Jose took much much less $ to stay
Naylor 2 CAREER walks in 79 postseason at bats. Shows no patience and wants to be hero even after we get Lane behind him in the lineup for protection. Killed way too many potential rallies. Mike Napoli 2.0. regular season legend but no where in playoffs
It's December not March. You have talked numerous times about how they usually make most of their moves later. I guess you have to talk about something.
excellent analysis of the weekend's news! let's distill it down to two points: 1) there is enough variance in player performance that only time will tell if the Santana for Naylor exchange works out. No amount of hot takes changes the fact that nobody knows. (You guys weren't giving the hot takes.) 2) more needs to be done this offseason.(outfield bat.) I still stay as skeptical about Noel, btw.
@@LockedonGuardians solid show! it is very difficult to be in the thick of significant changes for any team in any sport and make a calm, reasoned, and forward-thinking assessment like you guys did on this episode. well done!
@@JosephRhodes-s4r the Dolan's or anyone affiliated with the team do not care about us or this podcast. Any opinions here are conclusions we reach on our own. If you don't like it or agree, that is your right. But we are not beholden to anyone for what conclusions we make. Locked On pays us to share our thoughts with you. That is what we do. Thanks for listening
You both need to STOP...Santana is 39 and he hit in a far superior line up to get the numbers he achieved. With trade of platinum glove at 2nd his "D" potential is ONLY advantage! This team got worse after going to ALCS...You lose credibility with this diatribe you speak. Mizel ans Zuppe calling it like it lays. This is bad for 2025, just pray it is good for 2027.
Is it weird, that I think of all these trades as one really big trade? What I mean is I thought when they made the "Gimmy" trade with the Bluejays, that was to set up the Naylor trade for pitching, because they brought in another guy to compete for 1st base and DH and an outfieder. So in my mind, we trade Sandlin, Gimmy and Naylor for 4 Pitchers and an outfielder, but had to go through several teams and steps to get the exact set of players they wanted, Sheldon Cooper would consider that 4-day chess.
@@LockedonGuardians Nick Mitchell, the outfielder, I was under the impression that he had some cache to him, but you guys are the expert on minor league stuff (no shade, I am really giving your podcast, but you two in specificly credit for the fact that you are great with disecting the minor leagues. I could be wrong, from what i read Nick Mitchell had upside, I think he is the hidden gem in this trade, but again that is just me researching and not really knowing.
I am already sick of the guardians conversation this off season, this is so weird. I will try this another way, for all the people complaining about this off season. Because it is really starting to feel that some of you just like to complain about stuff, you are so used to using no money spent as an excuse, that when you see it is not an excuse you just keep using it anyway. I would like for you all to write down exactly the moves you would have made this off season to make this team better then they were last year? Don't call me names, don't castigate terms or Front Offices, write down the exact things you wanted to happen, the trades, the FA pickups that you believe were there for the Guardians to make. edit: not for the two dudes doing the locked on, they along with Quincy Carrier are two of the individuals giving content that is entrusted in what they are seeing and what the njumbers are saying, not what will drive bittereness and a divide. We are lucky to have these two guys grinding. Go Guardians
@@LockedonGuardians me too I was beginning to think I was a nutbag for understanding why they did what they did. I really liked Gimmy, I loved Naylor, but this team need starting pitching, to get open up a lane for Manzardo and to open up an avenue for their glut of middle infielders and they did that. Plus they got Santana, who I like, but listening to you guys made a ton of sense, which I came around to agree with. Santana is going to teach all of our young guys patience at the plate.
There could be a hidden clubhouse factor in this. I appreciated Josh’s fire, (although it was more like explosive) but when he is not exploding, what energy is he providing? Does he sulk? Is he quiet? Too quiet? Attitude? You can see how Santana is a quality professional in the clubhouse. Like Hedges, he can bring something and maybe something had to leave.
totally agree, something amiss with Naylor? More leadership with Santana, Hedges, Ramirez?
Rosenthal mentioned today how Seattle offered more years for him and the impact he had in the clubhouse there with less emotion. Was interestingly worded
@@davidvankirk7721 Naylor is just a math problem. He’s probably a great guy. But he is not athletic and didn’t get better in this area. That means he would not have been extended at any cost, even free cuz he would be taking the place of a base stealing 1B who can play multiple positions. That’s how you win on a budget. Pay guys who are over valued in multiple areas that the market don’t respect yet like Andres Giménez . Naylor has power and that’s it. Someone will pay for his power. But arias and others have power, but also can steal bases and provide plus level defense and range. With the new shift rules, range is everything. lol I should call in one day and nerd out on baseball. And in 2025 MLB baseball is more than just hitting. What are you doing when you’re slumping? If you ain’t picking ball’s out the dirt, running aggressively making other plays than you’re useless. Lane Thomas is the type they want. When he’s struggling at the plate he’s still an impact. Then when it aligns for him and he hits too he’s a monster.
Never realized how true this is until you said it. The guy seems to be emotionless unless he is exploding with aggressive energy, could be this as well as other factors
@@LockedonGuardiansnot sure why any player wants to sign with Cleveland anymore aside from someone like Santana. The second you have a bad year or even bad half after signing a contract, they find a way to deal you (Andres and Josh Bell), They preach culture but show no loyalty. They didn’t need to make that Naylor move but couldn’t help themselves not being able to get “something”. This type of mentality and behavior lends to developing players only to fill your roster, it’s borderline ruthless. Why would Kwan even think of signing an extension now after what they did to Andres? Just counter to all the family and strong culture the organization preaches. I read the players were not happy after the Andres trade, you risk ruining the culture with this non-stop balancing the now with future mentality. I get it, but they keep building teams that can’t get past a certain point in the playoffs due to lacking a few big time bats. Teams that require non stop pinch hitters to play the odds just to match up against a big market team. Spend the money for two yrs, Dolan has it. He is a top 10 net worth owner in MLB. Prove to me they didn’t generate $350-$400m last year. I detailed to you how I got the calculation. Let’s not forget the stadium renovation aid the city has provided several times. They can easily afford a $150m roster every year.
Santana is a switch hitter, that's a plus. Naylor's conditioning was a huge issue. It's a 1 year contract, that works, I like Manzardo for our future.
Agree with you on this
If Ortiz, Cecconi, and Brito all turn out to be average to above average in their respective positions than this team is already far better than last year.
That's fair
Great discussion guys - Happy Holidays to you and yours!
Happy Holidays to you as well!
Gentlemen, enjoy your families this holiday. Great year. So appreciative of the community you have created for us fans and the mature insights you both bring to this table. God bless.
Appreciate that and happy holidays to you as well
Agree, part of my frustration is it seems like the FO is hesitant to improve positions because they’re holding the position for an unproven prospect player. When you have obvious needs you have to make changes regardless of who may be here in a year or two, make that unproven player force a change by their play. Otherwise, we’re never going to field a team built to compete for a championship. Then again, I think the FO’s primary goal is to be competitive in the Central.
It's hard as they blocked players before who they needed to know more about it's a delicate balance
@@LockedonGuardians True. Just seems our patience burns us more often than not… i.e. Espino, Valera, Arias, Freeman, Brennan etc.
I expect Josh Naylor to regress in 2025. A stat line close to .240 avg and 16 HR with 30 days on disabled list. The sleeper in the Cleveland offense could be Arias with a Stat line of .280 avg, 25 HR. Wishing you a Merry "Big Boy" Christmas!
Merry Christmas and I hope you are right on arias
Just to be clear the Mason-Dixon Line is a North South dividing line made famous by the Rebellion War.
East West you probably want to use the Mississippi River.
Thank you for attending my TED talk
Good points
Great show and happy holidays
This move was for Manzardo to play since Naylor was being a crybaby about giving up 1B duties. Santana is an emergency/mentor for Manzardo.
I think they split time because Santana value is so defensive based
Thanks gents, have a great Christmas. You guys are legends 👍
You too!
We won’t know the value of a trade until we see what happens with the return. Josh wasn’t going to be a Guard in 2026. We got in Santana an equal risk/production value. We got a return, instead of not getting a return.
That's all fair
Great analysis guys!
Signing Shane Bieber makes them better for 2025. The other additions are attempts to keep the team competitive moving forward. I like all of the moves they’ve made so far. I like Naylor, but I feel comfortable with Santana instead.
There is a chance for better outcome and a chance for worse but unlike the totality of it
Casual fan here...good show buds
Thanks guys, have a Merry Christmas!
Merry Christmas!
I really like this trade when all said and done
Same
@@LockedonGuardians I appreciated Josh, but objectively wasn't a fan with his inconsistency and seemed to chase at a lot of the worst times you just needed contact. I understand Carlos risk but getting a promising pitcher that fits this organization and pick 72 with Carlos coming is a big upgrade defensively for a staff that is a ground ball staff. I love Ortiz as well for this organization and has very good upside still being young as well.
Cleveland brought back Rocky Colavito too, but he wasn't 39 years old
Not many guys are as good as Santana at his age they brought back thome and lofton late too
It seems for Cleveland as a low market, contend every year mindset, that trades to improve the year ahead has to happen at the trade deadline. There you can address the specific needs, for a legitimate playoff possible team. Pre Season FA signings have to fall into Cleveland lap because they are not able to compete financially. I would like to see someone like Ward fall to them.
I would love Ward in a trade in FA there just isn't much in FA to wait on this year
The ceiling is higher Noel/Santana @ first could be a big step forward. If Noel tanks, Santana is healthy. He raises the floor. Flexibility improves. Noel can be put in positions to succeed. Depth is improved, Naylor is injury prone to the point he may be done in 3 years. The pitching has more depth. You have an opportunity to get a franchise player with competive balance pick.
That's all fair, I am not the biggest on Noel but I think they want to give him a legit shot
Will benson and nolan jones moves look pretty stupid now that we dont have an effective right fielder
Did you see how bad they were last year?
I saw them moving Naylor regardless. He is not athletic and can’t play multiple positions. So it was only a matter of time. The team is looking to be more athletic, steal more bases and play multiple defensive positions. That’s why they been sitting on Arias for so long. I been saying that they love him even thought they never play him. I could see him getting time at 1B and then we can try better bats at SS until arias sinks or swims.
Arias is a very interesting young player due to his power profile and defense, Naylor's profile just does not typically age well
Draft pick is pretty nice and if any team can get Caldwell lined out it's the Guardians. Not a bad return. Great show fellas.
Thanks for watching and the kind words
Like how the Guards are stocking up with PITCHING!!!!!! In the words of the late great Pete Franklin..."It's pitching, pitching and more PITCHING" Love the number of switch hitters we have as well. Unfortunately Josh's body type won't hold up! It's MANZ time and fingers crossed that Brito or BAZZANA go Bananas!!
Pete Franklin! 👍
I love how they are trying to build a strong pitching core!
I see 39 yr old Santana and 28 yr old Naylor as pretty much a wash (which sounds surprising). Naylor definitely still has a higher production ceiling, but man I have a hard time imagining he plays anywhere close to 150 games again next year. He's gained so much weight and his swing is just so violent... I like the idea of getting at least something out of Naylor before his contract expired, AND getting an equal replacement in Santana. Welcome home, 'los!
I agree big risks all around and guys like Naylor age in dog years
From June to the end of October Naylor and Santana put up pretty much identical stats too
I’m done complaining . I try to root for the teams I enjoy with an open mind . Still grumpy with the weird way Vogt managed his bullpen and team in playoffs . Well I guess I still complain . I have no expectations this coming year !
I think he over managed too
The browns slogan is “there’s always next year”!!! The guardians slogan should be “there’s always 5 years from now”.
At least the Guardians make a deep playoff run.
@@patrickmanway290 this is the truth!!!! If we had missed the playoffs last year, I would think these are great moves!
Browns wish they had the guardians success
The team with the biggest fanbase in CLE deserves it the least. But that's Cleveland for ya!
@@LockedonGuardians yeah with the browns it never comes!!! At least we get a chance about once a decade with the guards. Last year was probably one of the more fun seasons ever to watch
If Santana signed for less, then you’d complain it was a salary dump and blame ownership.
Noo... Do you not listen to us at all we literally defended the Gimmy trade
We had a team ops vs. RHP of .685 in a league where the avg is .704. Josh led our team with an .800 ops vs. righties. Santana had .676 OPS vs. righties. Our strength was already vs LHP. League avg is .701, ours .751. Josh stinks vs lefties and Santana had a .976 OPS vs lefties last year.
We subtracted from an area we were already deficient and added to an area we were already strong. We may recoup in overall value with Cecconi and the pick but this is an L for 2025.
That is my concern with the deal too they are so right heavy and the park favors lefties
I think I figured out what is happening here. The Guardians rarely make short-term decisions in the offseason. That's why people struggle with the question, "Does this move make the team better (for 2025)?". The team doesn't think that way. The two trades that were made recently were for the long-term, not for 2025. The Santana signing, which is still not yet confirmed by Chris Antonetti BTW, is the only short-term move and was only made because they don't feel that Manzardo is ready to be the fulltime 1B yet. Because of the financial constraints placed on this team by ownership, the front office can't afford to assume that if they acquire players X, Y, and Z, they will automatically be back in the ALCS or World Series. Every season is different, even if you return the same players and add new players. This is especially true with bullpens which are always unpredictable from one season to the next and the bullpen was the only real strength of this team this year. As many people have said in the past, this team just needs to be good enough to get back into the playoffs since anything can happen and I think it is good enough barring significant injuries.
I think this is all true, they helped the selves for the future and maybe now while also making a lateral move to make things more balanced with less ceiling
i think it might be more accurate to say that most decisions have both strategic (long term) and tactical (short term) considerations. but one thing the front office has done consistently more recently is rid themselves of players who are projected to underperform in relation to their contract. they learned their lessons struggling with the hafner contract followed by the bourn/swisher signings. they eventually ate straw's contract and clearly projected giminez to underperform (and i suspect, naylor as well).
jeff, please talk more. i'm starting to fast forward when justin continues to repeat himself ad nauseum.
There were a lot of reasons to move Josh, I wonder if one of them was a looming arbitration case. You guys have stated how they hate going to Arbitration with anyone, and I would imagine if they wanted to avoid talking about weight and conditioning they wouldn't want it as a big argument with the arbitrator.
This is a great point that Justin brought up just after we recorded too
So very frustrated that we don't ever do anything to get better in the moment. Saw a report somewhere this weekend that the Guardians could be in on a trade to get Cease cuz SD wants to cut payroll. I could only chuckle.
Hard with the TV uncertainty mixes with the market size. SD is cutting salary because of how little money they got from the TV deal with MLB that Cleveland will start this year
Santana only made 5.25 million this season. This is an over pay
@@RobertGrose-jn3nw Seattle offered him more money and a second year. So they had to compete to get him back.
Try a 6 million for 2024 santanta
Of the two trades (Andres and Josh) this one bothers me less. We replaced him with an older player with a longer track record. I think Carlos is probably worse now than Josh, but I can live with that swap and I understand fearing Josh’s profile
My issue with this offseason so far is not any of the individual moves. All are defensible and can make sense as part of a larger framework. My issue is just as Justin said; I’m not sure we’re better now than we were at the end of the year. Coming off the ALCS that’s infuriating.
The offseason isn’t over yet. I get it. But we are behaving more like we had the Twins season not our own
TV contracts looms very large they weren't ever going to add a ton of payroll due to money going away, twins dropped payroll by 40 mil last year after making the post season due to the same issues
To me this team still needs one more OF/1B/DH piece, like signing Jesse Winker, or a trade for Cedric Mullins. I still want another SP too, like Michael Lorenzen or Kyle Gibson. Also, do you think CJ Kayfus will have an impact in 2025 at the MLB level?
Winker they won't touch due to character stuff, lorenzen isn't their type of arm, and I don't think kayfus helps soon right now he can't hit velocity at all
Josh Naylor (Regression Potential)
1. Unsustainable Luck in Balls in Play:
• BABIP: .246, slightly below league average (~.300).
• However, his Ground Ball Rate (46.8%) is significantly high, limiting extra-base potential. Players with high ground ball rates often see defenses adjust, further reducing offensive output.
2. Splits Vulnerability:
• OPS vs. Left-Handed Pitching: .637, a glaring weakness.
• Struggles against lefties make him exploitable, particularly in late-game matchups, and could lead to lower productivity in 2025.
3. Power Metrics Stability:
• Barrel Rate: 8.4%, slightly above average but not elite.
• Hard Hit %: 40.2%, solid but not indicative of elite power.
• His 31 home runs in 2024 may regress if contact quality dips, as it’s only modestly supported by advanced power metrics.
Carlos Santana (Steady or Minor Regression)
1. Plate Discipline:
• Walk Rate: 11.2%, consistent with career norms and among the league’s best.
• Santana’s ability to control the zone ensures continued on-base reliability, minimizing major regression risks.
2. Power Metrics Decline Likely:
• 2024 SLG: .420, slightly inflated by a Barrel Rate of 7.3% (above his career average of ~6%).
• With age (38 in 2025), bat speed may decline, leading to a likely drop in home run totals from 23 to around 18-20.
Summary:
Josh Naylor’s productivity is at risk due to his reliance on balls in play, high ground ball rate, and left-handed pitching struggles. Carlos Santana, while facing potential age-related declines in power, remains steady due to his elite plate discipline and consistent on-base skills.
Interesting data for sure, I thought he had a bad BABIP last year so that shows what I know. This is really great
@ no you were right! I just edited and I apologize: I think I accidentally used his xwOBA. The overall point still stands though. Even with a lower BABIP, the quality of his hitting still signals regression.
With contracts an issue, is Lane Thomas in the trade discussions? He’s due a bunch of money.
He could be but this wasn't contract issue as they signed Santana for Naylor's projection
Do we know what type of terms it would take to extend Kwan? I know an extension is dead in the water but what type of money will he command in FA?
3 years important for him to hit FA at 30 and not older which is when he would hit for Cleveland
Do you think the dodgers would trade dalton rushing could be a safety net in right or catcher
I would love if they would
I think it was EW that mentioned this a week or so ago, but someone looked at all the spending and it's pretty much all from the teams w/ settled TV deals that aren't having these revenue Qs
At the time the Guards were the biggest spenders among the "insecure" teams just from Bieber.
Even tho Santana replaces Naylor & Bieber isn't making much more than Arb 3, they're still among the bigger spenders of teams in similar situations.
Not justifying it, but it's more of a league wide issue creating bigger gaps than the numbers really show
Naylor was rumored to go to the Mariners, Toronto or the Yankees. I guess all their offers were less
None could offer a draft pick
Win the Division....Get Shane back in form by the post-season....and....let's go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hope ao
And go home in first round usually
Think it’s more so the front office thinks they can get better internally. Think the pitching lineup is already better than last year (Bieber, Bibee, Williams return year, and Ortiz) and full years from Manzardo, Noel, Delauter they think can help the lineup with an eventual Bazzana call up down the line late this year. Also with Santana now this team gets better at hitting lefties even more so. Kwan, Jose, Thomas, Fry, Santana, and Noel
Yup there is for sure some of this as well
I’m not going nuclear but frankly I’m not crazy about either of these deals. While I understand some of the pros it seems more like we could still be good in spite of more than we’re significantly better because of. I’m still hoping for a move that fits this latter category but it seems doubtful it will happen.
They have made lateral moves for this year which have chances to give more in 26 than the team the way it was built was likely to
I know that Slade Cecconi is gonna be an assassin, because he has the name of a villain in a mobster flick.
They tell the players go out into the community and let the fans know who you are....then turn around and trade those players with no thought to the fans. I get it I'm old enough to know it's a business. But, stop acting like you care about the fans. This was a lateral move and Carlos is 39. Even if he gives you homeruns he is still 39.
Naylor wasn't going to stay it might be a big move but they have a chance to get equal production and land an arm that can help
Equal production Santana 31 Home runs and 100+ RBI with 39 years old??? No way!!
I will be happy with this off-season if they get a real RF.
I hope they do to
I was literally whispering the name Tobias...😆
He worked out just not for them
They still need a third catcher. This is not re-allocation of funds.
True
.240 batting average.
He turned down an extension.
GOOD TRADE CLEVELAND.
I am just not a Santana fan tho...we shall see tho👍🏼
I love Los so I am happy to see him back
So we’re gonna assume a 39 year old is gonna be equal to an Allstar 28 year old. We’re worse for the now, you’d never know we just went to the ALCS
You're right the 39 year old was better last year
@ like I said we’re gonna assume a 39 year old is gonna be an all star 🤣, age regression definitely isn’t a thing. Naylor is way more likely to repeat last year.
Wth is that mannequin
What ever happened to the business model "it takes money to make money". Maybe if they tried to generate fan interest more people would come see this team. And Thank God Jose took much much less $ to stay
They spent money with Santana after the deal weird to focus on money with this one
Naylor 2 CAREER walks in 79 postseason at bats. Shows no patience and wants to be hero even after we get Lane behind him in the lineup for protection. Killed way too many potential rallies. Mike Napoli 2.0. regular season legend but no where in playoffs
He struggled so badly in the post season and was over shadowed by Jose
It's December not March. You have talked numerous times about how they usually make most of their moves later. I guess you have to talk about something.
That is for sure it has been an unusual year
Favorite Disney Movie, is A Goofy Movie or Heavyweights.
Not the expected ones saw the goofy movie in the theater as a kid
Los = Naylor more or less plus they have more pitching which they needed all last season so its lateral plus depth
Their is more risk but I agree
Let them finish the off season and do their jobs....my God, it's only Christmas....Merry to all ya at that.
excellent analysis of the weekend's news!
let's distill it down to two points:
1) there is enough variance in player performance that only time will tell if the Santana for Naylor exchange works out. No amount of hot takes changes the fact that nobody knows. (You guys weren't giving the hot takes.)
2) more needs to be done this offseason.(outfield bat.)
I still stay as skeptical about Noel, btw.
I am skeptical about Noel too and feel like they need an OF so agree 100 percent
@@LockedonGuardians solid show! it is very difficult to be in the thick of significant changes for any team in any sport and make a calm, reasoned, and forward-thinking assessment like you guys did on this episode. well done!
They are going to score a lot less this year
Not sure how when their 3rd worst hitter is gone
Stop pissing on the trade. The Guardians starting rotation is so much better now.
Are you listening we aren't doing that at all
Your hope and dreams are depending on a guy who is 39 years old for 12 million dollars...
Bet on performance
Jeff’s on the Dolans payroll
@@JosephRhodes-s4r the Dolan's or anyone affiliated with the team do not care about us or this podcast. Any opinions here are conclusions we reach on our own. If you don't like it or agree, that is your right. But we are not beholden to anyone for what conclusions we make. Locked On pays us to share our thoughts with you. That is what we do.
Thanks for listening
@ Yeah my statement was sarcasm,you’re a real boy I respect your opinions. Merry Christmas fellas
Naylor is a health and injury risk and not worth keeping. I’d rather have Santana.
I think both are solid equal parts risks Santana more complete
You both need to STOP...Santana is 39 and he hit in a far superior line up to get the numbers he achieved. With trade of platinum glove at 2nd his "D" potential is ONLY advantage! This team got worse after going to ALCS...You lose credibility with this diatribe you speak. Mizel ans Zuppe calling it like it lays. This is bad for 2025, just pray it is good for 2027.
Thanks for watching if you think we aren't credible maybe it's not the show for you
Is it weird, that I think of all these trades as one really big trade?
What I mean is I thought when they made the "Gimmy" trade with the Bluejays, that was to set up the Naylor trade for pitching, because they brought in another guy to compete for 1st base and DH and an outfieder.
So in my mind, we trade Sandlin, Gimmy and Naylor for 4 Pitchers and an outfielder, but had to go through several teams and steps to get the exact set of players they wanted, Sheldon Cooper would consider that 4-day chess.
Gummy trade didn't bring in a bat because they flipped the bat for more pitching
@@LockedonGuardians Nick Mitchell, the outfielder, I was under the impression that he had some cache to him, but you guys are the expert on minor league stuff (no shade, I am really giving your podcast, but you two in specificly credit for the fact that you are great with disecting the minor leagues.
I could be wrong, from what i read Nick Mitchell had upside, I think he is the hidden gem in this trade, but again that is just me researching and not really knowing.
I am already sick of the guardians conversation this off season, this is so weird.
I will try this another way, for all the people complaining about this off season. Because it is really starting to feel that some of you just like to complain about stuff, you are so used to using no money spent as an excuse, that when you see it is not an excuse you just keep using it anyway.
I would like for you all to write down exactly the moves you would have made this off season to make this team better then they were last year? Don't call me names, don't castigate terms or Front Offices, write down the exact things you wanted to happen, the trades, the FA pickups that you believe were there for the Guardians to make.
edit: not for the two dudes doing the locked on, they along with Quincy Carrier are two of the individuals giving content that is entrusted in what they are seeing and what the njumbers are saying, not what will drive bittereness and a divide. We are lucky to have these two guys grinding.
Go Guardians
It's weird how much anger their is with a front office that is does it as good as anyone in totality I like this off-season
@@LockedonGuardians me too I was beginning to think I was a nutbag for understanding why they did what they did. I really liked Gimmy, I loved Naylor, but this team need starting pitching, to get open up a lane for Manzardo and to open up an avenue for their glut of middle infielders and they did that.
Plus they got Santana, who I like, but listening to you guys made a ton of sense, which I came around to agree with. Santana is going to teach all of our young guys patience at the plate.