@@CWYMAN77I guess there are, but what percentage is that? I’m not the kind of guy that would bet $500 that it will be sunny tomorrow because I want to wash my car when the weatherman says 60% chance of rain.
@@TennTimes Polymarket is a scam...............one guy bet 10 million..............nobody knows who he is....................that moved the odds................
European markets weren't too keen on what that "late dump of votes " were all about in 2020. I was on Bovoda and at one point Trump was "live" at -800 before that late dump...
Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania! If Harris wins Pennsylvania she probably wins the election. If Trump wins Pennsylvania he probably wins the election. The odds of winning the election should be close to the odds of winning Pennsylvania (unless Harris is favorite to win two of AZ, GA and NC--which she isn't at the moment). So if you want to bet on one of the candidates, bet the better odds for your choice between the national odds and the Pennsylvania odds.
The odds assume a path for Trump through Wisconsin. Which was closer to flip in 2020. It's possible with a slight improvement he flips WI but not PA. Hence odds are more favourable to Trump on the election than just PA because he could lose PA and still win the election.
@@alexm3392 There are a tons of scenarios for both candidates. But practically speaking, if PA goes for Harris, so will MI and WI. Even Ohio could be in play if the undecideds in the Midwest break heavily for Harris. The South is completely different, as is the West. Trump could win WI, but he will almost certainly win PA also if he does (and maybe MI too). Pick the better odds between PA and the National results if you wager.
@@GRice999 but it is possible that trump could win without the election while losing Pa. There is a state that he was closer to winning in 2020 than PA. Hence there is a scenario where he improves just enough to get back Wisconsin but not enough to pick off PA. That's why there is a difference in the odds for the two outcomes.
@@alexm3392 My opinion is based on polling I've seen this cycle. Harris very slim lead was higher in WI than PA, and she was behind in PA until very recently. And as was stated in the video, there is correlation of the voting in those Midwestern states. Also, WI is only 10 electoral votes, compared to PA's 19. If she lost WI and won PA, she would only need to win one of the three states mentioned in my OP, instead of two, all of which have more than ten electoral votes. Anyway, if I was betting the election, I would do as I recommended. You pay yer monies and you takes yer chances. 😁
@@GRice999 Why are people so confident on the polls reflecting reality when they have been so drastically wrong for Trump every, single, time? HAven't they been off by at least 4 points every time? What makes you think you should have any confidence it would be different this time?
Good stuff.........love Robert Barnes, nice job finding him for this!
Thanks!
Viva/Barnes law show every Sunday night.
Viva Barnes Law!
Good Stuff Krack!
Thanks for watching
Pros right there....
Wow….y’all managed to keep politics out of betting politics and keep it hyper-technical. Amazing.
Even in these markets, like sports, people on both sides are betting strictly on what they want the outcome to be. That has to be factored in.
@@CWYMAN77I guess there are, but what percentage is that? I’m not the kind of guy that would bet $500 that it will be sunny tomorrow because I want to wash my car when the weatherman says 60% chance of rain.
@@TennTimes Polymarket is a scam...............one guy bet 10 million..............nobody knows who he is....................that moved the odds................
@@MB-rr1fb I know Polymarket is a scam….Mark Cuban is an investor. Enough said.
@ I know Polymarket is a scam…..Mark Cuban is a major investor. Enough said.
European markets weren't too keen on what that "late dump of votes " were all about in 2020. I was on Bovoda and at one point Trump was "live" at -800 before that late dump...
Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania! Pennsylvania! If Harris wins Pennsylvania she probably wins the election. If Trump wins Pennsylvania he probably wins the election. The odds of winning the election should be close to the odds of winning Pennsylvania (unless Harris is favorite to win two of AZ, GA and NC--which she isn't at the moment). So if you want to bet on one of the candidates, bet the better odds for your choice between the national odds and the Pennsylvania odds.
The odds assume a path for Trump through Wisconsin.
Which was closer to flip in 2020. It's possible with a slight improvement he flips WI but not PA.
Hence odds are more favourable to Trump on the election than just PA because he could lose PA and still win the election.
@@alexm3392 There are a tons of scenarios for both candidates. But practically speaking, if PA goes for Harris, so will MI and WI. Even Ohio could be in play if the undecideds in the Midwest break heavily for Harris. The South is completely different, as is the West. Trump could win WI, but he will almost certainly win PA also if he does (and maybe MI too). Pick the better odds between PA and the National results if you wager.
@@GRice999 but it is possible that trump could win without the election while losing Pa. There is a state that he was closer to winning in 2020 than PA. Hence there is a scenario where he improves just enough to get back Wisconsin but not enough to pick off PA.
That's why there is a difference in the odds for the two outcomes.
@@alexm3392 My opinion is based on polling I've seen this cycle. Harris very slim lead was higher in WI than PA, and she was behind in PA until very recently. And as was stated in the video, there is correlation of the voting in those Midwestern states. Also, WI is only 10 electoral votes, compared to PA's 19. If she lost WI and won PA, she would only need to win one of the three states mentioned in my OP, instead of two, all of which have more than ten electoral votes. Anyway, if I was betting the election, I would do as I recommended. You pay yer monies and you takes yer chances. 😁
@@GRice999 Why are people so confident on the polls reflecting reality when they have been so drastically wrong for Trump every, single, time? HAven't they been off by at least 4 points every time? What makes you think you should have any confidence it would be different this time?
👍🏾
Barnes is way too cocky. Reminds me of 2020, and I see disaster coming for people buying into it.