Alright guys, the AFC North is in my opinion is the best division in football, I wanna hear where you all land with each of these teams cause good god this division is stacked 1. Bengals 2. Ravens 3. Browns 4. Steelers
1. Bengals 2. Ravens 3. Steelers 4. Browns The Browns will underachieve yet again while the Steelers will play above their talent level as underdogs and just miss out on the playoffs
Hot take Browns will win division and bengals will struggle after losing a top 3 S duo, Dax hill is a bust and burrow will be rusty which will lead to 3rd place.
1a. Ravens, like lamar in the new offense. 1b. Bengals. Right there with Baltimore. Still worry about their OL against good defenses 3. Browns. Questions about their passing offense 4. Steelers. TBD on pickett
He was told by his college coach if you turn the ball over you won’t play. He was then taught by Tom clements his packers qb coach ( quote ) 1. Don’t throw late down the middle 2. No blind throws 3. No premeditated decisions
@@underthetrees4780 I would agree in a sense. He went from having great weapons all around him ( Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James jones, Donald driver, a young Randle Cobb, jermichael Finley, & Davante Adams ) to just Davante Adams. So from 6 guys at a time to just 1 reliable guy. He also around the age of 34/35 ish ( 2017 ) lost his athletic ability to be dynamic scrambling inside and outside of the pocket. So he had rely less on that style of play everyone is seeing nowadays from mahomes, Allen, burrow, & all the rest of the young guys now and go to a more Peyton manning Tom Brady style of I NEED YOU IN THIS SPOT AT THIS TIME OR YOUR NOT GETTING THE BALL !
@@adamn2268 Pretty good point you make. It's very noticeable even from someone like me who only saw a few Packers games per year that Rodgers doesn't scramble like he used to. He has become a traditional pocket passer, which is normal for a QB entering his late 30s. Guys like Randall Cunningham and Steve Young who were known for being proficient runners in their early career eventually transitioned into pocket passers later on as their mobility faded. As far as weapons at the receiver position, that comes and goes I guess. When Rodgers only had Davante Adams in 20-21 opponents could bet Rodgers was looking his way first. Now he's on a new team with some new talent we'll have to see if Rodgers spreads the ball around or picks a new favorite target.
Nope they are about to be beaten . Like always . Aaron was right about Covid vaccines and he has always been right about how to beat defenses .. Nothing has changed but where he plays . Aaron has always been the greatest . It only took changing teams to get most people to see what Packers fans already know.
It's crazy how different those teams were offensively too. They used to live throwing it over the middle cuz Rodgers Arm strength and pin point accuracy was unmatched. I don't even think mahomes could do what he did with those passes on a consistent basis. Of course in those days you had fearless pass catchers like Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings
@@jeffevert9406 Idk. As much as I loved Rodgers, Mahomes can make every throw. I feel like you could combine Brett and Aarons strengths and that's pretty much mahomes.
@@tomc5435if that were true then Mahomes would have the highest passer rating in the NFL, not Rodgers. Mahomes might get it one day but he doesn’t have it yet lol
Honestly, this just highlights how good Kerby Joseph did last year against Rodgers. 3 ints in one season as a rookie against as safe a passer as Aaron Rodgers is baffling
Not at all, Rodgers last year especially the end of the year was floating his passes basically fair catches for the opponents due to his injured thumb. Kerby Joseph only had 1 int when not playing against Rodgers so it shows how bad Rodgers was with the Packers last year while injured and demonstrates that Kerby Joseph was and is nothing special just another rookie who got xmas gifts from Rodgers. When he wasn't injured under Matt as head coach they won 13 games for 3 straight years. It wasn't the WR talent it was the injury. The youtuber never mentioned this he just said talent which was false.
@biteme-rz3ws regardless of how they happened, Joseph got STATS against Rodgers. Whether or not he was injured isn't the lions fault. If he was injured, maybe they shouldn't have played Rodgers in the game. Also, I said how well he did against Rodgers. I never mentioned a game outside of Green Bay for Joseph. My last sentence still stands, 3 ints in a season against Rodgers had only been done one time prior, and he sure as hell wasn't a rookie either. Joseph still had to make the plays and made them when it mattered when going up against the pack.
@@williambudrow9508 You're right they shouldn't have played Rodgers. Love showed he was the better QB last year when he came in for Rodgers vs the Eagles and made a comeback after Rodgers put them in a hole with two terrible int's. If the man would've made those picks vs a healthy Rodgers the previous two year I would've been impressed. Last year they were simply gifts as Rodgers was the MVP for the Lions last year. I'm very glad he's gone the Jets can have his cand azz.
@biteme-rz3ws lol ya, I think the jets with him won't be all that being cracked up either, he's in the twilight of his career, I'm just hoping that brian branch can continue to be a beast at nickel and Joseph can elevate his game in his sophomore season. Only time will tell though
Rodgers also rarely had the defenses to justify riskier throws. Not knowing if they could get off the field or get him the ball back. It’s hard for me to picture him more successful in New York given he has a lot of the same dudes he had in GB, but they certainly have a defense.
This data is from his last three years. He had one of the best defenses in the league these last three years. Regardless. The NFL isn’t what it once was. The average drive in the NFL lasts less than three minutes now. He would have plenty of time to make up his mistakes in todays game. Risks are a necessity if we are talking Super Bowls and funny enough the year he won the super bowl he threw 11 INTS. That’s the second most in his career. I’m not accusing him of stat padding but this style of play is the closest thing to it. Mahomes has already eclipsed Rodgers career and he makes those risky throws. There is a recipe to winning.
That is a great take. Rogers philosophy can also be picked up by Zack Wilson who also has a great arm. Rogers being conservative can work for the jets because they have a top 5 defense. Also he now has two great running backs so he can remain conservative most of the time.
This is spot on, knew Rodgers didn't like throwing to the middle unless someone was wide ass open, didn't realize it was this obvious. He does have really good arm strength but it's not what it used to be, saw big drop off last season. The analysis of why he had so many interception last season makes a whole lot of sense & it's nail on the head also.
Rodgers had so many ints last season came down 2 a few things...mainly injuries and Rodgers not wanting to put in the time with the rookie wr he was now forced to have. He took very few 1st team reps in practice during the season. So it took them forever to get on the same page. Rodgers was done in green bay last yr. He put in very little effort.
@packers12to80 very little effort my ass. You wouldn't even get close to the nfl even if you dedicated your life to it so don't act like you know his life and routine
@@packers12to80It's not really that Rodgers is just a good football player now he's not a baller / game changer like he used to be even those MVPs he won had a lot to do with Adams
Great vid as always brother! I realized this about Rodgers back when he had a young Cobb, Nelson, Driver, Finley, Jones and Greg. This is definitely a tribute to his arm talent, accuracy and knowledge of the game.
@@AlexRollinsNFL Alex if you get to watch any Saints preseason games, Dennis Allen allowed Ronald Curry to call plays for the offense tonight. He's obviously watched your channel. Not that his play calling was great but 80%+ of Winston's throws tonight were out of the Aaron Rodgers playbook. All either quick WR screens or Go routes up the sideline , flag routes or deep outs. Of course Jameis unlike Rodgers still had to throw into double and triple coverage to try to "fit" it in 😂.
Or maybe it was the fact the packers never gave him a LEGIT target over the middle lmao you packer fans have this habit of blaming any and everything that went wrong with that team on Rodgers when in reality maybe start putting more blame and pressure on your GM who just ran your two star players out of Green Bay within 3 years then they don’t even give the kicker who’s been there FOREVER a chance to fight for his job lmao the packers are a terrible organization that lucked into 30 years of HOF QB play
@@kingrambo519whoa I'm a Saints fan bro!!!!!! Just happen to watch a lot of film like my man Alex here. I care nothing about the Pack. I'm Who DAT 4 life!!!
My issue is that Matt Lafleur was probably scheming up clean looks in the middle of the field but Rodgers wanted to run his offense. If you want to win, you have to take chances. Jordan Love throws the ball to whoever is open and gives his receivers a chance, yes he has thrown some picks but the packers have had way more chunk plays down the middle of the field this season.
Part of the reason that Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw over the middle for years is that the Packers haven't had any TEs that were above replacement level. That's why the Packers drafted to big & athletic TEs in April. Also the Packers drafted Jayden Reed to be a slot threat which the Packers haven't had in years.
Rodgers is risk averse to an extreme. Maybe it came from being a backup to Favre, who was sort of the opposite, often criticized for being too aggressive, so perhaps Rodgers overcompensated in this way. But there is little reward without some risk. It's surprising that he could have so much success being so conservative in his play style, imagine how dangerous he could be if he actually used the middle of the field.
Can't change the old tiger's stripes with the Jets. He brought his boys, his OC (well Rodgers really is the OC) and he's bringing what is proven. As long as he got guys who can win in isolation, he'll be fine.
@@brettmartin3529to be fair, he hasn't really ever had a good TE in their prime since Finley. GB has mainly brought in washed up TEs. Tonyan was ok but he had a hard time getting open after his breakout season and torn ACL
@@brettmartin3529 He will throw to a talented TE same as any WR, if they're not using high/low concepts like drive. In 2011, Jermichael Finley was 3rd in both yards and targets for GB. Jordy Nelson was targeted 96 times. Finley was targeted 92 times. TE play was a big part of that offense, even if it wasn't the top feature. Jumping forward a bit, in 2015 Richard Rodgers had 85 targets, still a big part of the team's usage. We only see a massive decline in TE usage when the Packers got Davante Adams, who also ate into some of the other WR target volume to have a ton of targets (he had ~160 one year). Last year, Robert Tonyan was tied for 3rd in targets for GB, with 67. Aaron Jones had 72, and Lazard 100, so Rodgers treated #2 WR and TE about the same (and got similar production from them). It's telling that a RB made it to 2nd in targets. Even if the RB is good, that's (usually) rough unless you have Marshall Faulk or similar. Rodgers declined somewhat, while the talent around him declined much more, but he can and will use good TEs for a healthy target share *if he has a good TE*. What about with the Jets? Well...Lazard, which was his highest targeted WR last year, is now likely to be his 3rd WR (or 2nd if/when Corey Davis gets hurt again, he's had one full year w/o injury). Wilson will be a fantasy monster if healthy, he had a good season with a much worse QB as a rookie. Thus I think you'd be right to predict that Rodgers won't target Conklin too much at TE. He's a passable starter that can line up at TE and do the basic jobs, but he won't light up the league with explosive plays or carry an offense. Rodgers will use him, but not as much as his top 2-3 WRs unless they get hurt. Probably ~50 targets and in the range of 4-6th on the team in targets.
Packers fans have had this criticism even during the MVP years. It becomes especially obvious during the playoffs when he started flinging balls to a triple covered Adams, rather than throwing for first downs right in front of him.
Makes all the sense in regards to the receivers he's been with too. He has to trust they will win their match ups (even against zone beyond 20 yards its pretty much a 1v1) and he'll dime them up the consistent way he can. Though I think his dink and dunk game isn't the most explosive in part also with the receivers he keeps around.
@@jmgonzales7701 But I called "not it". Alright -- because the middle is where interceptions happen. Rogers prefers rac-intended short passes (virtually no chance for an INT) and go routes where he can out throw the coverage (again, virtually no chance for an interception). By neglecting the middle part of the field, which is the hardest spot for the defense to cover but also the hardest spot for the QB to read, he takes a low risk approach to the passing game. But he also leaves a lot of yards on the field.
Honestly if you think about this, it's the perfect strategy. AR can throw it to the harder places, so he does because they're less defended. So defenses might say "well let's do more work to defend the harder places," and the consequence of that is just less defended throws into the easier places. It's kind of a cheat code, really.
Rodgers not only doesnt throw over the middle but he doesnt throw in rhythm. Look at rodgers in the superbowl vs the steelers, drops back hits his last step and throws darts over the middle of thevsteelwrs defense. That is legitimately the only reaason we won the superbowl. However shortly there after, i think in 2013 he brokw hia collarbone ( the first time ) and ever since then hes been reluctant to stay in the pocket and throw in rhythm over the middle. Even though both times be broke his collarbone he was improvising out of the pocket
The packers havent had a good TE or slot WR in years. It's really not that deep. Devante would line up in the slot a lot but he would guaranteed get double teamed
Great video. Do you have some data on McCarthy era? As it was the same scheme and talent, so I don’t know whether he doesn’t like it, or MLF didn’t have many good MOF concepts.
Different Scheme, different talent. Rodgers never liked the middle so he would throw outside a lot, but he would hit people like Jermichael Finley or Jordy Nelson on seems or deep posts, and they worked great because they had to deal with great outside talent, like Greg Jennings and Cobb, and later Adams. (I like MLF I am gonna use it) MLF started using a lot more bubble screens and rpo's when he got in, something we did before but not a lot. While most of this is from memory, so take what I am saying with a grain of salt, there was an article in 2020 that showed Rodgers throws to the middle of the field the least of any starting QB and showed data from 2018 (Mccarthy), showing he has always been that way.
@@josephdowney2715 2018 he was already checked out, so you need a bigger data set. And those deep posts aren't exactly MOF. Maybe he does really hate MOF. Crazy how good he still is.
I can't blame him too bad in that specific game lol he had an interception and an almost interception on plays over the middle where his receiver was tackled and no flag. I woulda been shook too lol
He had 346 yards and 3 tds with another dropped td by adams, dropped 2pt by eq and lazard was not looking at a rpo pass by rodgers on the final drive that if he looked back for the ball, its a walk in td
lol no. The lost against the Bucs because the Bucs defense was on fire that game. Todd Bowles had his players heavily study hard on Green Bay best concepts and came up with multiple counters
honestly, its pretty smart. defenses are strongest in the middle. he is hella accurate and a stronger arm than most believe. most nfl defenses are built and work best against the middle, and rely on a pass rush to get to the QB before outside breaks down.
This is all code talk for "I would rather not throw INTs at all instead of always giving my team a chance at a big play" This isn't a good thing. Example: He led his offense to just seven points in his most recent playoff game but pundits will say it's ok bc he didn't throw any INTs
This is an incredibly well done video. Very impressive. Only thing I’ll add is I never saw Rodgers and a new receiver really hit it off first year. Garrett Wilson could change that tho
So cool to me how the Bounce concept seems to have evolved from the Texas concept: the routes featured in it just better utilize the skill of lighter personnel, as opposed to the Texas concept which was made for pony backfield sets and 21 personnel. But they both do the same thing: attack an LB with high and low in-breaking routes.
Been yelling about this with my family and friends for years... completely ignores wide open receivers and forces the ball into double/triple coverage. It's the reason he failed to convert any turnovers into points in the playoffs. Drove me nuts.
@@waltglass7055 Lazard was open (2X) no matter what film is watched. All 22 to broadcast coverage. Wide open. Rodgers just didn’t look his way due to it being over the middle. Been like that since around 2015. These two plays happened in the final drives of the Bucs playoff loss and the last years L to the Lions. All in meaningful times of the game. He forced it to Adams and then last year he forced it to Watson for no reason.
@gerbertron3226 I'm not disagreeing with you perse. I'm just saying what's on TV is not automatically the same on the field. Yes Rodgers is very conservative, but at the end of the day ( I know this is a bit fallacious to say) iv never played at the elite level, many people who comment on the games have not either. Therefore it is hard to judge just based off the tapes. But for the most part I do agree with you. Rodgers won't go out and leave it all on the field.
Thanks Ally! Yeah, Hurts definitely hasn't attacked the middle much so far, and lovesss throwing go balls. All the RPO stuff Rodgers does is 1 of 1, so in that way they're different (even though the Eagles run lots of RPOs themselves, just more similar to how they're traditionally done, which isn't a bad thing)
@@FinalDragoon63 yeah it seems to me that Rodgers is heavily reliant on the skill of his receivers rather than his own. This has always been my knock on him and it bugs me that people don't seem to realize this.
@@L_Train Isn't that what a great QB is suppose to do? Raise the floor of the great talents around them? Ask Pats fans the receivers Brady has to throw to post 2017 and the guys he was throwing to in TB in 2021 when they were at their healthiest. Its fucking night and day. Unless the QB is in their young prime and are aliens like Mahomes and Allen, they have to lean in harder in the talent of their receiver group to win in the pass game.
Early in his career when he wasn’t a total narcissist diva he just ran the offense, made his reads and delivered the ball on time, it’s how he won a ring. He had Jennings, Jones, Driver and Nelson. Nobody is arguing that either of them are all time legends. He trusted guys and the system back then. Then after Nelson left he was never the same. He started playing hero ball with Adams and then Adams left. What ever it was that changed, it was in his head. I’m a lifelong Packer fan and Wisconsinite so try calling me a hater, it won’t work. I said what I said
There is no question his game has changed as he has aged. While it can’t all be blamed on Rodgers, his performance in the 2014 NFCCG was not great, after leading a nice come back he failed repeatedly in crunch time against Tampa in the 4th quarter in 2020, and he simply could not deal with SFO doubling Adams the next year. People also forget that when the Pack was blown out of the NFCCG by Atlanta in 2016 and SFO in 2019, the offense in both games was shut out in the first half, effectively ending the game at the half. Wasn’t only their defense that collapsed. He’s a great QB but his championship days are gone. GB kept him a year too long.
As a lifelong packers fan I argue with people all the time over Rodgers bein better than Favre and I honestly just can't see it and I've watched most games played by both, In my honest opinion Aaron is an outstanding regular season quarterback but IT'S BEEN PROVEN NO MATTER YOUR FEELINGS ABOUT IT THAT HE'S JUST DOESN'T HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS AND THE RECEIVERS SHOULD GET MORE CREDIT THAN THEY DO‼️💯💯
@@jqualls7901 It's a tough argument, because his poet-season stats are very good. But some of them were in garbage time (see 2016 and 2019) after the offense laid goose eggs when it mattered in both games. He rarely plays terribly in the big games, and he has had some great playoff games, but he just comes up either a little or a lot short too often.
I thought Flores/Packers were sorta doing Rodgers a disservice not getting anyone to replace Adams, or even to compliment Adams while he was around. I think the new team was what he needed.
Been saying this for years.....he never throws over the middle and he's overly cautious about turnovers to a FAULT. Mahomes and Brady have higher turnover rates but win more. At some point you have to take risks in the NFL, and that's why he's underperformed when it counts.
Ironically the type of TE I always wanted them to draft for him to be more comfortable throwing down the middle the finally picked when he left, with the pick they got for him 🤦♂️
Do you think Rodgers will break his mold and open up more in the middle due to a new HC in Saleh? Or will his familiarity with Hackett keep him in his same old tendencies? I knew he wasn't much of a middle of the field passer, but I didn't realize it was to this extreme. Great video as usual, pal.
Old QBs rarely change much, and I'd expect it even less with Rodgers than others given his nature. The only old QB that altered his game significantly was Peyton Manning, because he physically had to just to keep playing. That bought him an extra couple years before his body gave out completely and even that didn't work...and note that despite Peyton adjusting his mechanics and preferences somewhat, Denver *still* largely used the offense we saw with the Colts for so many years. TB with Brady also looked a lot more like his NE approach than the "no risk it no biscuit" style offenses typical of Arians before long. Part of the reason for this is stubbornness. But I suspect a bigger part is simply that these elite QBs had teams that found the things they did best already and emphasized them. Even top players are better at some things than others. When a guy's been in the league playing at a high level 10+ years, not only that player, but most of the league knows what those are, and they're still hard to stop. Usually deviating from that simply doesn't make sense, especially when you sign this guy to a big contract to fish for SB run in the next few years.
At a certain point, Aaron Rodgers is a first ballot hall of famer who is 41 years old, the coach doesn’t make a talent like him adjust and at that old he isn’t going to want change his game from something that’s worked for him for the better part of 2 decades
Nobody mentions his struggles last year might have also been from the fact his thumb was broken... That was last year right? Maybe I'm just crazy but I'd be willing to get that played a pretty big role in his performance...
I have a question. Was his passing in the deep middle more like the league average before 2019 and if so, why was it the case? Was he more aggressive or did he simply create easily middle throws by using his younger legs move out of the pocket to draw middle of the field defenders away from their spots to then create easier throws? Im trying to figure this out.
PFF's data only goes back to 2019, and in 2019 his targets were more over the middle. I didn't really have time to dive deeper into that cause I didn't have film that dates back that early
It’s literally because the packers never gave him a LEGIT weapon to attack the middle of the field dude it’s really not that complicated the Packers did the bare minimum for that man and fans wonder why he didn’t go the extra mile for that front office, Devante even said he left because he felt disrespected by the GM before he left but they wanna keep up this “Rodgers is so selfish narrative”🙄
Great video but you missed one big thing. Jermicheal Finley almost died on a middle ball. I bet if you looked early 2000s or 2010s he did it more. After jMike, he did it far less.
Coming back to this video after the 2023 season is interesting, because it turns out that the packers had talent at WR. I wonder if his control freak nature is the reason why he fizzles out so much in the playoffs
Anyone saying Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw over the middle has never actually watched Aaron Rodgers throw the ball. You also forgot that your good wife receivers are on the outside unless the play is designed for them in the middle. Therefore they don't throw over the middle because like you said and the fact you mostly have the middle covered by defense. Also to throw to the ones that don't catch it as much if you throw to them in the middle they drop, tip, and miss the ball. There can also be many variables as to why someone doesn't throw in the middle. Use your knowledge to actually do some good instead of make someone look bad come on people. Everyone knows that Rodgers is the best most accurate passer especially when it comes to making impossible throws and making it look easy. He is the best there is at that. Also to the one saying Rodgers has declined in the last couple years. Wrong Rodgers had a crappy set of Receivers except for Lazard, and Cobb. Always dropping the ball tipping the ball everyday every game. Pay closer attention to him and you will see what I'm saying is 100% true
'crappy set of receivers except Lazard' L M A O you got me there at the end of your fucking 800 word essay. Make some changes so your history teacher can give you a passing grade.
Do you actually have any evidence for the claim made at 1:06? Isn't it just as likely that over the last 3-5 years GB hasn't really had any weapons that they can utilize over the middle of the field? You'd need to take a look at his entire career to see if this is actually the case. You have data that definitely says he hasn't thrown over the middle lately, but there really isn't any evidence to suggest that the narrative of your video.
@@AlexRollinsNFL My point still stands. You have data saying that he doesn't throw over the middle. The rest of it is narrative fluff that you don't really have any support for and expect people to accept a priori.
Excellent breakdown of Aarod. How good could the Packers have been if Aarod were coached to take the meat outta the middle? Aarod runs the game, runs the coaches (in GB) and calls the plays and checkdowns. If that's good for one superbowl, it's probably good enough for the Jets? Problem is, as you run into defenses in the playoffs, you can't just feast off the outside. If you can't take the meat in the middle (or change your game for better defenses), your gonna be one-and-done. Good luck Jets! My bets have been placed against any chance to win in the playoffs BECAUSE of Aarod. Old dog, no new tricks me thinks.......
Agree, Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar, Allen much more likely to win the AFC and a SB. Lamar shreds the middle, and he's significantly improved outside the numbers. He can make a throw anywhere on the field. Mahomes doesn't need an intro, we saw how well he played vs the Bengals & Eagles defenses. Burrow can also make any throw on the field, and he has Big Bodies in Chase & Higgins. Josh Allen is a little iffy though
The Pack had talent last year is just very green with Doubs and Watson. After Watson's drop in the first game against the Vikings he wouldn't throw to him for weeks. Then he broke out.
Gute should have traded Rodgers to Denver after the 2021 divisional round loss to the Niners. Instead we trotted out a JV Squad of wideouts, in terms of in game experience, for the 2022 season. Good times.
Yeah, well just from a wider scope... if I was A.Rodgers with his experience in the division he played in.... Urlacher might have been a phenomenal influence on that trend.
Old time Bears fan here. As Rodgers career as progressed he has become very risk adverse. If you watch him he seldom takes a risk unless it's a free play.
This is going to be a good season. He's not as young but he has the talent back and he's been a cerebral QB from the start more than a physical gifts one.
I saw this with Roethlisberger. Granted he had arm surgery and his strength wasn’t all there but still he was afraid to throw over the middle because the loss of velocity
NGL it sounds like a lot of what has made Hurts so good, the last 2 seasons…. Let the play win, or throw it up to AJ brown 1v1… or smith to the outside.
Pretty much but the Eagles on offense flex their athleticism more. Their O-line makes a push for the running game and Hurts to get whatever they want on the ground. In the pass its just match ups between AJ Brown whose a middle of the field slant guy but turned into a vertical guy, Smith whose can separate and catch and Goedert whose big. Hurts will make the read on 989 routes and knows when his guys are better than the defenses' guys.
Disagree to an extent as he failed to play efficiently while reading post snap. Late on throws and missing concepts more than usual. Rodgers will make big plays but can he make maintain drive vs teams that take away the short passing game and has the talent in the secondary to erase his WRs? The run game might be his saving grace but off play action you should be attacking the middle. His processing wasn't as good last year which is far more important that physical gifts
Thing is Rodgers can't really make adjustments under LaFleur who is very strict with his play sequencing (play action and all). And Rodgers is the type of QB similar to Peyton who wants the freedom to adjust based on what he's reading pre-snap. It makes sense he doesn't really want to constantly live in a play-action world because he would rather not have the scenario to turn his back on the defense in his late 30s then make another quick read post snap. When he can just go with his own flow and keep the defense in front of him to pick them apart with how he does best.
Thanks for the comment OD. I think he played a little slower last year, but it wasn't drastically different in my opinion. I think it was more cause of who he was throwing to than anything that he was doing to himself
I think everyone knows this by now, what not many might not know is why It's injury He used to, then former packer finley got DESTROYED and had a massive neck injury Since then he is terrified of the hospital ball. So while it literally has cost the Packers multiple SB trips, at least the reason is one of good intentions He also can't beat cover 2, or quarters lol The Fangio system was made to stop Aaron of all people
Rodgers is kinda similar to KD in some ways: innately talented, supremely efficient, productive year in and year out, and yet never saw much playoff success without loaded teams
@gbrow1604 What about his other mvp season? He couldn't get a first down. Have you actually brought up his post-season stats? He throws more interceptions in one game in the playoffs than the entire season before.
I can't tell you how much it hurt my heart to hear you keep saying that Aaron just didn't have the talent last year. I'm so utterly disappointed in my Packers. They didn't respect the gift they had in Aaron Rodgers and as soon as his stats dipped a little & he wasn't the MVP, they got rid of him. It's sad but being as extraordinarily great as he is hurts him at times because as he once said, his bad years are most QBs great years. Aaron Rodgers being compared to Aaron Rodgers is sometimes unfair.
Sorry Elvis. Yeah, you could tell how frustrated he was last year. Both guys not winning outside, but also being in the wrong place. GB mismanaged the hell out of the situation
![Felix "Unfair" | [Stray Kids : SKZ-PLAYER]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/Oswujxm2Ag0/mqdefault.jpg)
Alright guys, the AFC North is in my opinion is the best division in football, I wanna hear where you all land with each of these teams cause good god this division is stacked
1. Bengals
2. Ravens
3. Browns
4. Steelers
1. Bengals
2. Ravens
3. Steelers
4. Browns
The Browns will underachieve yet again while the Steelers will play above their talent level as underdogs and just miss out on the playoffs
Hot take Browns will win division and bengals will struggle after losing a top 3 S duo, Dax hill is a bust and burrow will be rusty which will lead to 3rd place.
Bengals (11-13 wins)
Ravens (10-12 wins)
Steelers (10-11 wins)
Browns (9-11 wins)
AFC west in my opinion. Is it cause I’m a raiders fan ? Probably yes but hear me out.
Chiefs
Raiders
Broncos
Chargers
1a. Ravens, like lamar in the new offense.
1b. Bengals. Right there with Baltimore. Still worry about their OL against good defenses
3. Browns. Questions about their passing offense
4. Steelers. TBD on pickett
He was told by his college coach if you turn the ball over you won’t play.
He was then taught by Tom clements his packers qb coach ( quote )
1. Don’t throw late down the middle
2. No blind throws
3. No premeditated decisions
The Davante Adams era started to feel a bit premeditated, especially the last two seasons.
@@underthetrees4780 I would agree in a sense. He went from having great weapons all around him ( Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James jones, Donald driver, a young Randle Cobb, jermichael Finley, & Davante Adams ) to just Davante Adams. So from 6 guys at a time to just 1 reliable guy. He also around the age of 34/35 ish ( 2017 ) lost his athletic ability to be dynamic scrambling inside and outside of the pocket. So he had rely less on that style of play everyone is seeing nowadays from mahomes, Allen, burrow, & all the rest of the young guys now and go to a more Peyton manning Tom Brady style of I NEED YOU IN THIS SPOT AT THIS TIME OR YOUR NOT GETTING THE BALL !
@@adamn2268 Pretty good point you make. It's very noticeable even from someone like me who only saw a few Packers games per year that Rodgers doesn't scramble like he used to. He has become a traditional pocket passer, which is normal for a QB entering his late 30s. Guys like Randall Cunningham and Steve Young who were known for being proficient runners in their early career eventually transitioned into pocket passers later on as their mobility faded. As far as weapons at the receiver position, that comes and goes I guess. When Rodgers only had Davante Adams in 20-21 opponents could bet Rodgers was looking his way first. Now he's on a new team with some new talent we'll have to see if Rodgers spreads the ball around or picks a new favorite target.
He then sat on the bench for 3 years and saw how absolutely deflated his sideline felt after Favre threw one of his horrible ints
@@adamn2268Is it just because Green Bay has awful management that can't keep players?
"NFL defenses are about to be immunized' lmaoo great sign off and great break down. 👏👏👏💯💯
Nope they are about to be beaten . Like always . Aaron was right about Covid vaccines and he has always been right about how to beat defenses .. Nothing has changed but where he plays . Aaron has always been the greatest . It only took changing teams to get most people to see what Packers fans already know.
I lost it at immunized
My first thought was maybe they should immunize the Jets OLine, then worry about opposing defenses.
@@jesusoftheapescome up for air bro
u single?
It’s crazy that one of the biggest passes of his career 3rd and 5 to Greg Jennings in the Super Bowl was over the middle and it was an absolute dart
It's crazy how different those teams were offensively too. They used to live throwing it over the middle cuz Rodgers Arm strength and pin point accuracy was unmatched. I don't even think mahomes could do what he did with those passes on a consistent basis. Of course in those days you had fearless pass catchers like Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings
@@jeffevert9406 Idk. As much as I loved Rodgers, Mahomes can make every throw. I feel like you could combine Brett and Aarons strengths and that's pretty much mahomes.
@@tomc5435without the interceptions
@@tomc5435if that were true then Mahomes would have the highest passer rating in the NFL, not Rodgers. Mahomes might get it one day but he doesn’t have it yet lol
You have to consider they had so much talent on WRs that year. That opened the defense so much. Driver, Gennings, James Jones, Jordy and Finley...
Honestly, this just highlights how good Kerby Joseph did last year against Rodgers. 3 ints in one season as a rookie against as safe a passer as Aaron Rodgers is baffling
Not at all, Rodgers last year especially the end of the year was floating his passes basically fair catches for the opponents due to his injured thumb. Kerby Joseph only had 1 int when not playing against Rodgers so it shows how bad Rodgers was with the Packers last year while injured and demonstrates that Kerby Joseph was and is nothing special just another rookie who got xmas gifts from Rodgers. When he wasn't injured under Matt as head coach they won 13 games for 3 straight years. It wasn't the WR talent it was the injury. The youtuber never mentioned this he just said talent which was false.
@biteme-rz3ws regardless of how they happened, Joseph got STATS against Rodgers. Whether or not he was injured isn't the lions fault. If he was injured, maybe they shouldn't have played Rodgers in the game. Also, I said how well he did against Rodgers. I never mentioned a game outside of Green Bay for Joseph. My last sentence still stands, 3 ints in a season against Rodgers had only been done one time prior, and he sure as hell wasn't a rookie either. Joseph still had to make the plays and made them when it mattered when going up against the pack.
@@williambudrow9508 You're right they shouldn't have played Rodgers. Love showed he was the better QB last year when he came in for Rodgers vs the Eagles and made a comeback after Rodgers put them in a hole with two terrible int's.
If the man would've made those picks vs a healthy Rodgers the previous two year I would've been impressed. Last year they were simply gifts as Rodgers was the MVP for the Lions last year. I'm very glad he's gone the Jets can have his cand azz.
@biteme-rz3ws lol ya, I think the jets with him won't be all that being cracked up either, he's in the twilight of his career, I'm just hoping that brian branch can continue to be a beast at nickel and Joseph can elevate his game in his sophomore season. Only time will tell though
Rodgers also rarely had the defenses to justify riskier throws. Not knowing if they could get off the field or get him the ball back. It’s hard for me to picture him more successful in New York given he has a lot of the same dudes he had in GB, but they certainly have a defense.
This data is from his last three years. He had one of the best defenses in the league these last three years. Regardless. The NFL isn’t what it once was. The average drive in the NFL lasts less than three minutes now. He would have plenty of time to make up his mistakes in todays game. Risks are a necessity if we are talking Super Bowls and funny enough the year he won the super bowl he threw 11 INTS. That’s the second most in his career. I’m not accusing him of stat padding but this style of play is the closest thing to it. Mahomes has already eclipsed Rodgers career and he makes those risky throws. There is a recipe to winning.
When alexrollinsnfl uploads you know it's going to be a good video.
I agree
Thanks my guy!
That is a great take. Rogers philosophy can also be picked up by Zack Wilson who also has a great arm. Rogers being conservative can work for the jets because they have a top 5 defense. Also he now has two great running backs so he can remain conservative most of the time.
This is spot on, knew Rodgers didn't like throwing to the middle unless someone was wide ass open, didn't realize it was this obvious. He does have really good arm strength but it's not what it used to be, saw big drop off last season. The analysis of why he had so many interception last season makes a whole lot of sense & it's nail on the head also.
Rodgers had so many ints last season came down 2 a few things...mainly injuries and Rodgers not wanting to put in the time with the rookie wr he was now forced to have. He took very few 1st team reps in practice during the season. So it took them forever to get on the same page. Rodgers was done in green bay last yr. He put in very little effort.
@@packers12to80 I agree this was a factor also.
@packers12to80 very little effort my ass. You wouldn't even get close to the nfl even if you dedicated your life to it so don't act like you know his life and routine
@@packers12to80It's not really that Rodgers is just a good football player now he's not a baller / game changer like he used to be even those MVPs he won had a lot to do with Adams
He’s also hasn’t a true weapon at tight end since Finley, and had old ass Cobb playing slot
Great vid as always brother! I realized this about Rodgers back when he had a young Cobb, Nelson, Driver, Finley, Jones and Greg. This is definitely a tribute to his arm talent, accuracy and knowledge of the game.
Thanks brother!
@@AlexRollinsNFL Alex if you get to watch any Saints preseason games, Dennis Allen allowed Ronald Curry to call plays for the offense tonight. He's obviously watched your channel. Not that his play calling was great but 80%+ of Winston's throws tonight were out of the Aaron Rodgers playbook. All either quick WR screens or Go routes up the sideline , flag routes or deep outs. Of course Jameis unlike Rodgers still had to throw into double and triple coverage to try to "fit" it in 😂.
Or maybe it was the fact the packers never gave him a LEGIT target over the middle lmao you packer fans have this habit of blaming any and everything that went wrong with that team on Rodgers when in reality maybe start putting more blame and pressure on your GM who just ran your two star players out of Green Bay within 3 years then they don’t even give the kicker who’s been there FOREVER a chance to fight for his job lmao the packers are a terrible organization that lucked into 30 years of HOF QB play
@@kingrambo519whoa I'm a Saints fan bro!!!!!! Just happen to watch a lot of film like my man Alex here. I care nothing about the Pack. I'm Who DAT 4 life!!!
@@kingrambo519 and it's totally about not throwing Picks. That's what Rodgers wanted to do to separate him from Favre. Not throw INTs.
My issue is that Matt Lafleur was probably scheming up clean looks in the middle of the field but Rodgers wanted to run his offense. If you want to win, you have to take chances. Jordan Love throws the ball to whoever is open and gives his receivers a chance, yes he has thrown some picks but the packers have had way more chunk plays down the middle of the field this season.
This channel gets me so hyped for the season I almost want to watch preseason football. Almost!
Thanks Erik!
Well hold the horses there Bro, I'm hyped too but no one watches Preseason😂
Very interesting analysis, per usual. Thanks Alex!
Thanks brother!
Part of the reason that Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw over the middle for years is that the Packers haven't had any TEs that were above replacement level. That's why the Packers drafted to big & athletic TEs in April. Also the Packers drafted Jayden Reed to be a slot threat which the Packers haven't had in years.
Cobb has been that slot threat
Nice reverse psychology, Rodgers was holding the tight end back by avoiding the middle.
Yeah, a lot of wide recievers get killed over the middle. Ask Austin collie.
Rodgers is risk averse to an extreme. Maybe it came from being a backup to Favre, who was sort of the opposite, often criticized for being too aggressive, so perhaps Rodgers overcompensated in this way. But there is little reward without some risk. It's surprising that he could have so much success being so conservative in his play style, imagine how dangerous he could be if he actually used the middle of the field.
I wonder if Rodgers will be more willing to attack the middle with the Jets compared to all his years with Green Bay…
maybe depends on the scheme i guess. also w an elite top 5 defense he might be willing to play riskier and more agressive.
There's no chance. He just hates throwing over the middle and using TEs.
Can't change the old tiger's stripes with the Jets. He brought his boys, his OC (well Rodgers really is the OC) and he's bringing what is proven. As long as he got guys who can win in isolation, he'll be fine.
@@brettmartin3529to be fair, he hasn't really ever had a good TE in their prime since Finley. GB has mainly brought in washed up TEs. Tonyan was ok but he had a hard time getting open after his breakout season and torn ACL
@@brettmartin3529 He will throw to a talented TE same as any WR, if they're not using high/low concepts like drive. In 2011, Jermichael Finley was 3rd in both yards and targets for GB. Jordy Nelson was targeted 96 times. Finley was targeted 92 times. TE play was a big part of that offense, even if it wasn't the top feature.
Jumping forward a bit, in 2015 Richard Rodgers had 85 targets, still a big part of the team's usage. We only see a massive decline in TE usage when the Packers got Davante Adams, who also ate into some of the other WR target volume to have a ton of targets (he had ~160 one year).
Last year, Robert Tonyan was tied for 3rd in targets for GB, with 67. Aaron Jones had 72, and Lazard 100, so Rodgers treated #2 WR and TE about the same (and got similar production from them). It's telling that a RB made it to 2nd in targets. Even if the RB is good, that's (usually) rough unless you have Marshall Faulk or similar. Rodgers declined somewhat, while the talent around him declined much more, but he can and will use good TEs for a healthy target share *if he has a good TE*.
What about with the Jets? Well...Lazard, which was his highest targeted WR last year, is now likely to be his 3rd WR (or 2nd if/when Corey Davis gets hurt again, he's had one full year w/o injury). Wilson will be a fantasy monster if healthy, he had a good season with a much worse QB as a rookie. Thus I think you'd be right to predict that Rodgers won't target Conklin too much at TE. He's a passable starter that can line up at TE and do the basic jobs, but he won't light up the league with explosive plays or carry an offense. Rodgers will use him, but not as much as his top 2-3 WRs unless they get hurt. Probably ~50 targets and in the range of 4-6th on the team in targets.
Amazing Video. Subbed👍🏻👍🏻
Thank you Rohit!
Alex!!!! I got some catching up to do. Thanks for all your work!
Thanks Moises! You're good bro, appreciate you!
Packers fans have had this criticism even during the MVP years. It becomes especially obvious during the playoffs when he started flinging balls to a triple covered Adams, rather than throwing for first downs right in front of him.
The Game vs SF comes to mind. Against the Bucs he played very well.
It may have something to do with sitting behind Favre, the all-time interception leader, those years.
This is a great breakdown. I assume this won’t change much now that he’s on the jets especially with Hackett being his OC again
Alex really is a gem of channel. A lot of knowledge and is mostly correct every time.
Thank you brother!!
Makes all the sense in regards to the receivers he's been with too. He has to trust they will win their match ups (even against zone beyond 20 yards its pretty much a 1v1) and he'll dime them up the consistent way he can. Though I think his dink and dunk game isn't the most explosive in part also with the receivers he keeps around.
Hey man love your videos
Thanks brother!
This channel being slept on 🤯
That sort of spelled the end for Big Ben. Once he couldn't hit his targets down the middle, it was over.
Rodgers' rule is at least don't throw over the middle LATE in the play- I guess if it's a schemed play- quick in/slant, if not, stay away from middle
why stay away from middle?
@@jmgonzales7701 "not it!"
@@jessejordache1869 why
@@jmgonzales7701 But I called "not it".
Alright -- because the middle is where interceptions happen. Rogers prefers rac-intended short passes (virtually no chance for an INT) and go routes where he can out throw the coverage (again, virtually no chance for an interception). By neglecting the middle part of the field, which is the hardest spot for the defense to cover but also the hardest spot for the QB to read, he takes a low risk approach to the passing game. But he also leaves a lot of yards on the field.
when you have the arm talent and accuracy he does you dont need to that much. he's precise on sideline throws
Awesome video like usual 🙌
Thanks brother!!
Found your channel last week and have been bingeing like crazy. The immunized line was elite damn shame he got hurt.
Thanks, great video!
Thanks!
Honestly if you think about this, it's the perfect strategy. AR can throw it to the harder places, so he does because they're less defended. So defenses might say "well let's do more work to defend the harder places," and the consequence of that is just less defended throws into the easier places. It's kind of a cheat code, really.
*Also helps having one of the best wide receivers/lines in the entire league.*
He was still doing it without Davante this year though!
Great breakdown!
Thank you!
interesting video idea. what resources did you use to pull the Targeting Maps?
Pro football focus premium stats
Concepts don’t mean shii without proper personnel. So the man avoided an entire part of the field……. and STILL won back to back MVP😂.
It caught up to him in the postseason
Rodgers not only doesnt throw over the middle but he doesnt throw in rhythm. Look at rodgers in the superbowl vs the steelers, drops back hits his last step and throws darts over the middle of thevsteelwrs defense. That is legitimately the only reaason we won the superbowl. However shortly there after, i think in 2013 he brokw hia collarbone ( the first time ) and ever since then hes been reluctant to stay in the pocket and throw in rhythm over the middle. Even though both times be broke his collarbone he was improvising out of the pocket
Can you do a goff film studie and why he saw a dip in ints
I already did it's on the channel!
@@AlexRollinsNFL I see that, my mistake I watched it and it was great. Keep up the good work 👏
The packers havent had a good TE or slot WR in years. It's really not that deep. Devante would line up in the slot a lot but he would guaranteed get double teamed
"NFL defenses are about to be immunized." 🤣🤣
This was an amazing video. Dropping knowledge.
Thank you brother!
Great video. Do you have some data on McCarthy era? As it was the same scheme and talent, so I don’t know whether he doesn’t like it, or MLF didn’t have many good MOF concepts.
Different Scheme, different talent. Rodgers never liked the middle so he would throw outside a lot, but he would hit people like Jermichael Finley or Jordy Nelson on seems or deep posts, and they worked great because they had to deal with great outside talent, like Greg Jennings and Cobb, and later Adams. (I like MLF I am gonna use it) MLF started using a lot more bubble screens and rpo's when he got in, something we did before but not a lot. While most of this is from memory, so take what I am saying with a grain of salt, there was an article in 2020 that showed Rodgers throws to the middle of the field the least of any starting QB and showed data from 2018 (Mccarthy), showing he has always been that way.
Thanks brother! I don't unfortunately
@@josephdowney2715 2018 he was already checked out, so you need a bigger data set. And those deep posts aren't exactly MOF. Maybe he does really hate MOF. Crazy how good he still is.
Not throwing in the m8ddle cost us an NFC championship vs bucs. Also.... Rodgers knock on him coming out of college was: Throwing in middle of field
I can't blame him too bad in that specific game lol he had an interception and an almost interception on plays over the middle where his receiver was tackled and no flag. I woulda been shook too lol
He had 346 yards and 3 tds with another dropped td by adams, dropped 2pt by eq and lazard was not looking at a rpo pass by rodgers on the final drive that if he looked back for the ball, its a walk in td
lol no. The lost against the Bucs because the Bucs defense was on fire that game. Todd Bowles had his players heavily study hard on Green Bay best concepts and came up with multiple counters
So you didn’t watch that game or just like talking out your ass
@@maskedman5657that same defense had Mahomes ran for his life and only had 9 pts
the way he can whip that ball is insane…. as a vikings fan i’ve seen it for almost 15 years lol
honestly, its pretty smart. defenses are strongest in the middle. he is hella accurate and a stronger arm than most believe. most nfl defenses are built and work best against the middle, and rely on a pass rush to get to the QB before outside breaks down.
Yep, he can get away with it cause hes just that good
Being a jets fan from Scotland who never played "football" in his life
This really made sense to me 😮😊
👊
Excellent report on Rodgers. Good incite.
Thanks Patrick!
It makes sense as to why he barely throws interceptions
why
This is all code talk for "I would rather not throw INTs at all instead of always giving my team a chance at a big play" This isn't a good thing. Example: He led his offense to just seven points in his most recent playoff game but pundits will say it's ok bc he didn't throw any INTs
Awesome content
Thanks Ken!!
This is an incredibly well done video. Very impressive. Only thing I’ll add is I never saw Rodgers and a new receiver really hit it off first year. Garrett Wilson could change that tho
This is so interesting. Where did the High Low concepts go?
So cool to me how the Bounce concept seems to have evolved from the Texas concept: the routes featured in it just better utilize the skill of lighter personnel, as opposed to the Texas concept which was made for pony backfield sets and 21 personnel. But they both do the same thing: attack an LB with high and low in-breaking routes.
Been yelling about this with my family and friends for years... completely ignores wide open receivers and forces the ball into double/triple coverage. It's the reason he failed to convert any turnovers into points in the playoffs. Drove me nuts.
Same! I also think he plays too conservatively and is TOO worried about turnovers vs making the right plays which has backfired over the years.
Hey. What looks opened on the tv is not always open on the field. Especially in the NFL. You don't get to see the angles he's looking at
@@waltglass7055 Lazard was open (2X) no matter what film is watched. All 22 to broadcast coverage. Wide open. Rodgers just didn’t look his way due to it being over the middle. Been like that since around 2015.
These two plays happened in the final drives of the Bucs playoff loss and the last years L to the Lions. All in meaningful times of the game. He forced it to Adams and then last year he forced it to Watson for no reason.
@gerbertron3226 I'm not disagreeing with you perse. I'm just saying what's on TV is not automatically the same on the field. Yes Rodgers is very conservative, but at the end of the day ( I know this is a bit fallacious to say) iv never played at the elite level, many people who comment on the games have not either. Therefore it is hard to judge just based off the tapes. But for the most part I do agree with you. Rodgers won't go out and leave it all on the field.
Y’all packers fans deserve what y’all are about to go through the next decade lol ungrateful ass fanbase
Great content! Would you say Eagles 🦅 offense is similar.
Thanks Ally! Yeah, Hurts definitely hasn't attacked the middle much so far, and lovesss throwing go balls. All the RPO stuff Rodgers does is 1 of 1, so in that way they're different (even though the Eagles run lots of RPOs themselves, just more similar to how they're traditionally done, which isn't a bad thing)
He used to throw nothing but hi lows over it middle it seemed like during that super bowl year
Probably because the last time Rodgers had an effective and consistent receiving TE was Jermichael Finley.
@@FinalDragoon63 yeah it seems to me that Rodgers is heavily reliant on the skill of his receivers rather than his own. This has always been my knock on him and it bugs me that people don't seem to realize this.
@@L_Train Isn't that what a great QB is suppose to do? Raise the floor of the great talents around them? Ask Pats fans the receivers Brady has to throw to post 2017 and the guys he was throwing to in TB in 2021 when they were at their healthiest. Its fucking night and day. Unless the QB is in their young prime and are aliens like Mahomes and Allen, they have to lean in harder in the talent of their receiver group to win in the pass game.
@@t4d0W yea but Rodgers doesn't raise anyone. He can't function unless his receivers are already good. He will never be in the same breath as Brady
Early in his career when he wasn’t a total narcissist diva he just ran the offense, made his reads and delivered the ball on time, it’s how he won a ring. He had Jennings, Jones, Driver and Nelson. Nobody is arguing that either of them are all time legends. He trusted guys and the system back then. Then after Nelson left he was never the same. He started playing hero ball with Adams and then Adams left. What ever it was that changed, it was in his head. I’m a lifelong Packer fan and Wisconsinite so try calling me a hater, it won’t work. I said what I said
There is no question his game has changed as he has aged. While it can’t all be blamed on Rodgers, his performance in the 2014 NFCCG was not great, after leading a nice come back he failed repeatedly in crunch time against Tampa in the 4th quarter in 2020, and he simply could not deal with SFO doubling Adams the next year. People also forget that when the Pack was blown out of the NFCCG by Atlanta in 2016 and SFO in 2019, the offense in both games was shut out in the first half, effectively ending the game at the half. Wasn’t only their defense that collapsed. He’s a great QB but his championship days are gone. GB kept him a year too long.
As a lifelong packers fan I argue with people all the time over Rodgers bein better than Favre and I honestly just can't see it and I've watched most games played by both, In my honest opinion Aaron is an outstanding regular season quarterback but IT'S BEEN PROVEN NO MATTER YOUR FEELINGS ABOUT IT THAT HE'S JUST DOESN'T HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN IN THE PLAYOFFS AND THE RECEIVERS SHOULD GET MORE CREDIT THAN THEY DO‼️💯💯
@@jqualls7901 It's a tough argument, because his poet-season stats are very good. But some of them were in garbage time (see 2016 and 2019) after the offense laid goose eggs when it mattered in both games. He rarely plays terribly in the big games, and he has had some great playoff games, but he just comes up either a little or a lot short too often.
I thought Flores/Packers were sorta doing Rodgers a disservice not getting anyone to replace Adams, or even to compliment Adams while he was around. I think the new team was what he needed.
Nice breakdown!
Thanks!
Been saying this for years.....he never throws over the middle and he's overly cautious about turnovers to a FAULT. Mahomes and Brady have higher turnover rates but win more. At some point you have to take risks in the NFL, and that's why he's underperformed when it counts.
The closing line was gold.
Ironically the type of TE I always wanted them to draft for him to be more comfortable throwing down the middle the finally picked when he left, with the pick they got for him 🤦♂️
Very interesting
Do you think Rodgers will break his mold and open up more in the middle due to a new HC in Saleh? Or will his familiarity with Hackett keep him in his same old tendencies? I knew he wasn't much of a middle of the field passer, but I didn't realize it was to this extreme. Great video as usual, pal.
No, because it would risk his statline more.
Team: Oh no Rodgers, we just choked in the playoffs again
Rodgers: Hell yeah no ints!
Old QBs rarely change much, and I'd expect it even less with Rodgers than others given his nature.
The only old QB that altered his game significantly was Peyton Manning, because he physically had to just to keep playing. That bought him an extra couple years before his body gave out completely and even that didn't work...and note that despite Peyton adjusting his mechanics and preferences somewhat, Denver *still* largely used the offense we saw with the Colts for so many years. TB with Brady also looked a lot more like his NE approach than the "no risk it no biscuit" style offenses typical of Arians before long.
Part of the reason for this is stubbornness. But I suspect a bigger part is simply that these elite QBs had teams that found the things they did best already and emphasized them. Even top players are better at some things than others. When a guy's been in the league playing at a high level 10+ years, not only that player, but most of the league knows what those are, and they're still hard to stop. Usually deviating from that simply doesn't make sense, especially when you sign this guy to a big contract to fish for SB run in the next few years.
If you are able to land a talent like Rodgers, you adjust to his play style. You create a system around him that’ll let him carry your team.
@@Chris-dv4grcasual lmao
At a certain point, Aaron Rodgers is a first ballot hall of famer who is 41 years old, the coach doesn’t make a talent like him adjust and at that old he isn’t going to want change his game from something that’s worked for him for the better part of 2 decades
This is probably why Cobb hasn't been utilized as much lately, since he's usually in the middle of the field.
Nobody mentions his struggles last year might have also been from the fact his thumb was broken... That was last year right? Maybe I'm just crazy but I'd be willing to get that played a pretty big role in his performance...
You're right! He was kinda meh before the injury too, but yeah, I would think a broken thumb isn't super ideal
@@AlexRollinsNFL Every time you come out with a video critiquing Rodgers, he turns on the gas and starts cooking.
Good!@@johnzabroski5396
Dudes just a hater he’ll nitpick Rodgers for literally any reason while leaving out details that destroy his whole argument
This wasn't a negative video@@kingrambo519
I have a question. Was his passing in the deep middle more like the league average before 2019 and if so, why was it the case? Was he more aggressive or did he simply create easily middle throws by using his younger legs move out of the pocket to draw middle of the field defenders away from their spots to then create easier throws?
Im trying to figure this out.
PFF's data only goes back to 2019, and in 2019 his targets were more over the middle. I didn't really have time to dive deeper into that cause I didn't have film that dates back that early
It’s literally because the packers never gave him a LEGIT weapon to attack the middle of the field dude it’s really not that complicated the Packers did the bare minimum for that man and fans wonder why he didn’t go the extra mile for that front office, Devante even said he left because he felt disrespected by the GM before he left but they wanna keep up this “Rodgers is so selfish narrative”🙄
Great video but you missed one big thing. Jermicheal Finley almost died on a middle ball. I bet if you looked early 2000s or 2010s he did it more. After jMike, he did it far less.
Coming back to this video after the 2023 season is interesting, because it turns out that the packers had talent at WR. I wonder if his control freak nature is the reason why he fizzles out so much in the playoffs
I mean three of the receivers were not even on the team in 2020-22.
If Rodgers balls out in NY then we know the problem was Gute. Having a first rd WR or not pissing off Adams would’ve helped us not suck last year.
Yep and his desire to play safe costs him late season games. Especially when he gets down in a game
Anyone saying Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw over the middle has never actually watched Aaron Rodgers throw the ball. You also forgot that your good wife receivers are on the outside unless the play is designed for them in the middle. Therefore they don't throw over the middle because like you said and the fact you mostly have the middle covered by defense. Also to throw to the ones that don't catch it as much if you throw to them in the middle they drop, tip, and miss the ball. There can also be many variables as to why someone doesn't throw in the middle. Use your knowledge to actually do some good instead of make someone look bad come on people. Everyone knows that Rodgers is the best most accurate passer especially when it comes to making impossible throws and making it look easy. He is the best there is at that. Also to the one saying Rodgers has declined in the last couple years. Wrong Rodgers had a crappy set of Receivers except for Lazard, and Cobb. Always dropping the ball tipping the ball everyday every game. Pay closer attention to him and you will see what I'm saying is 100% true
'crappy set of receivers except Lazard'
L M A O you got me there at the end of your fucking 800 word essay. Make some changes so your history teacher can give you a passing grade.
Not sure if you know the song that the intro’s instrumental is from but uhh interesting choice 😅 (it’s a great beat btw)
Do you actually have any evidence for the claim made at 1:06? Isn't it just as likely that over the last 3-5 years GB hasn't really had any weapons that they can utilize over the middle of the field? You'd need to take a look at his entire career to see if this is actually the case. You have data that definitely says he hasn't thrown over the middle lately, but there really isn't any evidence to suggest that the narrative of your video.
The video is just about the last 3 seasons
@@AlexRollinsNFL My point still stands. You have data saying that he doesn't throw over the middle. The rest of it is narrative fluff that you don't really have any support for and expect people to accept a priori.
Never skip an Alex Rollins video
👊👊
This is partly true but mostly because we haven’t had an aggressive te in at least ten years …problem solved in 23 draft!
Excellent breakdown of Aarod. How good could the Packers have been if Aarod were coached to take the meat outta the middle? Aarod runs the game, runs the coaches (in GB) and calls the plays and checkdowns. If that's good for one superbowl, it's probably good enough for the Jets? Problem is, as you run into defenses in the playoffs, you can't just feast off the outside. If you can't take the meat in the middle (or change your game for better defenses), your gonna be one-and-done. Good luck Jets! My bets have been placed against any chance to win in the playoffs BECAUSE of Aarod. Old dog, no new tricks me thinks.......
As a lifelong packers fan #ExcellentComment‼️💯💯
Agree, Mahomes, Burrow, Lamar, Allen much more likely to win the AFC and a SB. Lamar shreds the middle, and he's significantly improved outside the numbers. He can make a throw anywhere on the field. Mahomes doesn't need an intro, we saw how well he played vs the Bengals & Eagles defenses. Burrow can also make any throw on the field, and he has Big Bodies in Chase & Higgins. Josh Allen is a little iffy though
The Pack had talent last year is just very green with Doubs and Watson. After Watson's drop in the first game against the Vikings he wouldn't throw to him for weeks. Then he broke out.
Y’all packers fans deserve what y’all are about to go through the next decade lol ungrateful ass fanbase
You hit his abilities spot on.
Thanks!
Gute should have traded Rodgers to Denver after the 2021 divisional round loss to the Niners. Instead we trotted out a JV Squad of wideouts, in terms of in game experience, for the 2022 season. Good times.
Yeah, well just from a wider scope... if I was A.Rodgers with his experience in the division he played in.... Urlacher might have been a phenomenal influence on that trend.
I feel like rodgers is ok with getting sacked cause he will not get blamed for a sack like he would for an interception.
Old time Bears fan here. As Rodgers career as progressed he has become very risk adverse. If you watch him he seldom takes a risk unless it's a free play.
This is going to be a good season. He's not as young but he has the talent back and he's been a cerebral QB from the start more than a physical gifts one.
I can confirm that he refuses to throw over the middle. It was very frustrating last year
Why would he throw over the middle with practice squad worthy tight ends and 80 year old Randall Cobb?
@@zackaryingram9004 ah here is the expert! 80 year old randall cobb that Rodgers wanted in NY with him? Thanks for proving my point
Y’all packers fans deserve what y’all are about to go through the next decade lol ungrateful ass fanbase
Its funny took look at heat maps and bring up league average tendencies. Rogers never concerned himself with average.
After 475 TD to 105 INTs which is a 4.52 TD/INT Ratio i think Rodgers has the right to attack whatever part of the field he pleases
Nobody is saying he doesn't!
Yeah, he has a good TD to int ratio because that's all he cares about and it makes him play like a coward, which is his major flaw
I saw this with Roethlisberger. Granted he had arm surgery and his strength wasn’t all there but still he was afraid to throw over the middle because the loss of velocity
rodgers is great but honestly this is why he has 1 superbowl lol. Gotta take chances
5:40 This is such a great play by Tremaine Edmunds. Looking forward to him on the Bears
you should look into all the 3rd/4th and shorts they had where he tried to throw deep down field for incompletions.
I’ve been saying this for yeeeears!!! And the Jets will see this and will see how their TE’s will not be utilized.
NGL it sounds like a lot of what has made Hurts so good, the last 2 seasons…. Let the play win, or throw it up to AJ brown 1v1… or smith to the outside.
Pretty much but the Eagles on offense flex their athleticism more. Their O-line makes a push for the running game and Hurts to get whatever they want on the ground. In the pass its just match ups between AJ Brown whose a middle of the field slant guy but turned into a vertical guy, Smith whose can separate and catch and Goedert whose big. Hurts will make the read on 989 routes and knows when his guys are better than the defenses' guys.
@@t4d0W yeah, you just described the efficiency that I’m talking about… No heroics by air, just great decisions. Young man is growing up.
The slant pass is one of the best passes you can throw. Favre killed defenses with his slants up the middle.
Favre has also thrown for more interceptions than any other QB in history lol.
@@voldemort008Fun Fact: Favre has both the most interceptions and the most fumbles in NFL history
Disagree to an extent as he failed to play efficiently while reading post snap. Late on throws and missing concepts more than usual. Rodgers will make big plays but can he make maintain drive vs teams that take away the short passing game and has the talent in the secondary to erase his WRs? The run game might be his saving grace but off play action you should be attacking the middle. His processing wasn't as good last year which is far more important that physical gifts
Thing is Rodgers can't really make adjustments under LaFleur who is very strict with his play sequencing (play action and all). And Rodgers is the type of QB similar to Peyton who wants the freedom to adjust based on what he's reading pre-snap. It makes sense he doesn't really want to constantly live in a play-action world because he would rather not have the scenario to turn his back on the defense in his late 30s then make another quick read post snap. When he can just go with his own flow and keep the defense in front of him to pick them apart with how he does best.
Thanks for the comment OD. I think he played a little slower last year, but it wasn't drastically different in my opinion. I think it was more cause of who he was throwing to than anything that he was doing to himself
Now i know why Aaron Rodgers never went to the super bowl in the past 10 years, get ready jets to be disappointed!
I think everyone knows this by now, what not many might not know is why
It's injury
He used to, then former packer finley got DESTROYED and had a massive neck injury
Since then he is terrified of the hospital ball.
So while it literally has cost the Packers multiple SB trips, at least the reason is one of good intentions
He also can't beat cover 2, or quarters lol
The Fangio system was made to stop Aaron of all people
No wonder why my 49ers always beat him starting in the Harbaugh years
Quarters is OP 😂. No body beats quarters :)
It thought Fangio system was to stop people like Mahomes and Goff
@@mastaaceexclusiveThe Packers ran a lot of Quarters and still got beat
Rodgers is kinda similar to KD in some ways: innately talented, supremely efficient, productive year in and year out, and yet never saw much playoff success without loaded teams
It's not like he doesn't have a winning record in the playoffs. And remember the 2016 playoff run?
@@gbrow1604I mean 🏆s…especially as the lead option/main player
Rodgers chokes in the playoffs like a grandma with her teeth out in an undercooked bacon eating contest.
@@ChiefGore429 He only really choked in 2021.
@gbrow1604 What about his other mvp season? He couldn't get a first down. Have you actually brought up his post-season stats? He throws more interceptions in one game in the playoffs than the entire season before.
I can't tell you how much it hurt my heart to hear you keep saying that Aaron just didn't have the talent last year. I'm so utterly disappointed in my Packers. They didn't respect the gift they had in Aaron Rodgers and as soon as his stats dipped a little & he wasn't the MVP, they got rid of him. It's sad but being as extraordinarily great as he is hurts him at times because as he once said, his bad years are most QBs great years. Aaron Rodgers being compared to Aaron Rodgers is sometimes unfair.
Jennings Jones Finley Driver Cobb Nelson Tonyan Adam's. Plus others. Get over it.
Sorry Elvis. Yeah, you could tell how frustrated he was last year. Both guys not winning outside, but also being in the wrong place. GB mismanaged the hell out of the situation
As a colts fan it’s always unfortunate to watch the organization mismanage a great player.
The guys about to turn 40 and couldn't decide if he wanted to play or not anymore. Time to move on.
@@usesumlogicmanlogicman4334 Only Cobb was with him last year. Your talking career. I'm talking last season.
Many years of trying to explain this to folks. Never on script