The Secrets of the Betting Pyramid - A new way to approach betting - ENTIRE WEBCAST

Поделиться
HTML-код
  • Опубликовано: 28 авг 2024

Комментарии • 62

  • @roberthunt8204
    @roberthunt8204 3 года назад +7

    Great content from a data analysis point of view which creates an overall honest, informative, and efficient channel.

  • @PJ_food_kicks_culture
    @PJ_food_kicks_culture 3 года назад +2

    Thanks for your videos. I recently started betting at my local bookie, I’m in NC so we don’t have plenty of options where I’m at but your videos have been helpful!!

  • @giantchamp415
    @giantchamp415 2 года назад +1

    I really appreciate your videos. Your knowledge has helped me out a lot. Thank you

  • @samd6020
    @samd6020 3 года назад +2

    I love the ‘Art of Betting’ portion of the video. Would you have more advice/resources on the topic of building the narrative?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +2

      That's the tricky part to make videos about. The true artists are so unique that exposing how they do it would greatly diminish their ability to earn. I'm not about doing that. However, I think there will be more videos in the future that focus more on the art of sportsbetting and less on the science.

  • @erikdepaula5625
    @erikdepaula5625 4 года назад +3

    Great presentation Jack. Are major sports money line bets favored by the sports books like sides and totals, or are they treated more like derivatives? Are In-game bets on major sports okay, or is that something the sports books hold against you? How about parlays on major sports? Parlays combining major sport and lesser/minor sports? Thanks.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +1

      Moneyline bets on major sports are welcome by any bookmaker. The pointspread is just a function of the moneyline so whether you're betting the side via the pointspread or the moneyline, it's all the same.
      In-game betting is generally welcome by sportsbooks unless you're trying to shoot an angle by betting with knowledge of what's happening before the sportsbook knows (ie: courtsiding). Generally, in-game betting has a slightly higher vig associated with it though.
      Parlays are welcome by sportsbooks because they compound the vig against the bettor. So while parlays with major & lessor sports combined could be a good way to get action down, be aware that you're betting into a much higher compounded vig if you don't have the edge on the individual legs of the wager. Of course, conversely, if you DO have the edge on multiple legs of a parlay you are compounding your advantage over the house. So parlays can be a great tool as well. Good questions, Erik!

  • @chadkwasigroch8824
    @chadkwasigroch8824 4 года назад +2

    I enjoyed the video but I believe the narrative section could be a total disaster. As a prop bettor I just don't see these correlations that were put out. For example, I may place an over on a WR just because the of the tendancy of the defensive coordinator's game plan of either allowing one main receiver action and taking away everything else or just the opposite. Similarly, a baseball pitcher k's prop could be totally unrelated to the home runs he gives up and a manager who will stick with him because the bullpen was depleted the night before. I am not trying to be critical as I understand what you are trying to achieve with the wise method. Thanks again for the video.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +1

      Fair enough, the correlations were suggestions based on logical outcomes given the prop play, not necessarily rules to follow.The key is to find base bets that support that narrative in whatever way you choose so they act as cover for your profitable prop betting.

  • @craigrich1349
    @craigrich1349 Год назад

    Thanks for the info

  • @Joshg982
    @Joshg982 4 года назад +2

    Great video; one request though: could you please do a review of BetRivers Sports book?

  • @ryandiroma
    @ryandiroma 4 года назад +2

    Do you think books have been more lax on accounts with a high % of obscure sports wagers like Table Tennis, ESports, etc during COVID, due to the absence of major sports? Would you advise taking advantage of these edges in the short term? Curious to get your perspective.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +2

      Most books haven't offered high limits on these obscure sports during the pandemic. If you've been playing the obscure sports and doing well I don't think it'll hurt your standing with most books. They were probably happy to get any action. I looked into a few things over the past few months but the limits just weren't there to make it worth my time. Instead I opted to focus on the RUclips channel...probably wasn't the best EV decision, but I've enjoyed the process more than I would have studying Korean baseball statistics.

  • @NMBSUMMER
    @NMBSUMMER 2 года назад +2

    Hi Jack, new to the channel. Can you tell me what levels $$$ you expect one to get noticed or even blacklisted from large online and live in-Vegas books? Considering the large market cap and volume today is massive. I watched your How to make $100k video, my buddy said need to making millions before you need to start worrying. And you also mentioned books may track bet amounts over win rate. many thanks! J

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  2 года назад +3

      It’s really not about how much you win, it’s about how sharp the sportsbook thinks you are. I know people who have been limited to pennies who didn’t even have a winning record. They demonstrated that they could beat the book and that was enough.

  • @davealcock9690
    @davealcock9690 3 года назад

    i have been betting the man for 6 weeks in a row

  • @oviefan100
    @oviefan100 4 года назад +3

    Hi Jack, thanks for all the content you create. I live in Canada and I've been pretty successful line grinding and betting props for a couple years now. The provincial governments run bookmakers deals bad prices, around -125 or so and I've only used them for some specific angles before. Recently I noticed that on baseball they let me make correlated parlays. Is the value of betting -1.5 on the favorite and the over enough to compensate for the vig? I've ran some sims of my own using Excel and R and I've concluded that I can almost blindly bet any Away fav -1.5 and the over if I can get around +200 or more. Am I onto something or is the edge gained not big enough to overcome the vig?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +2

      Runline parlays were very popular for a number of years with sharp bettors. They've tailed off in recent years as the market got more efficient and also scoring has gone up which limits the strength of the correlation. It sounds like you're on your way to determining if they are worth it for you. Keep exploring. I think you'll find certain totals are more advantageous than others.

  • @fabricefalcao433
    @fabricefalcao433 3 года назад +2

    Thanks for the content, wich is really instructive and interesting. I'm looking to get into sports betting and want to do so diligently. Maybe you adressed this topic on another video, (I'm going through them backwards), but do you need to implement this system right from the bat, or can you go hard after promos and prop betting in order to grow your bankroll more effectively, as long as you bet lower amounts, and even though it might mean getting tossed from a book or two after a while? Long story short, is this necessary as you're trying to build your bankroll or do you need to apply this a bit further down the road?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +3

      I definitely encourage you to take advantage of promotions when you can. If you're building a bankroll they are a good way to obtain free money. The downside is the risk of wearing out your welcome. My advice is to not worry about the concepts laid out in the Betting Pyramid until further down the road, BUT keep them in mind for use at some of the books that have a reputation for tiring of promo and prop players quickly.

  • @rjduevil7408
    @rjduevil7408 3 года назад +1

    How do sportsbooks perceive futures bettors and where do they fall on the wise pyramid? Also in your opinion, is it better to throw $25 daily at a particular future or a substantially large one time amount on a future?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +2

      Sportsbooks welcome action on Futures. The uncertainty in the market allows them to bake in a substantial theoretical house edge. Most Futures markets have a >20% house edge. None will view Futures bets as particularly sharp action. If they choose to limit you on a Futures wager, well, they're doing it wrong.
      In terms of wagering strategy, it depends. The market prices will adjust over time as more information is received. No matter when you bet, the market will be more efficient than it was prior. There is also the time-value of money to consider when you make a Futures wager. Would you get more utility using that wager money elsewhere in the meantime? Do you project a significant enough EV to warrant making a bet that won't resolve for several months? All things to consider.

  • @HappyCleanersWA
    @HappyCleanersWA 3 года назад +1

    If my bookie doesn’t care and I don’t need to build a “narrative” are prop bets the best way to go? Is there something I’m looking for? Like odds ?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад

      If Props are the most beatable market they offer, then yes. In order to determine how beatable they are you should compare the prices to other market books as well as your own projection of the proper line.

  • @Meta_Man
    @Meta_Man 3 года назад

    Hello captain Jack , I am a recently new subscriber and am loving that I found your channel . Running through all the videos , I am learning a lot . I have only handicapped NFL football but have never modeled but still have a slightly winning record but I hear others saying college and minor leagues are easier to beat . I have a harder time and feel lost in the college ranks . In the NFL I have teams with stats I seem to be able to figure out who is stronger in 3 point spread and less games . But in the college football teams are vastly different in sizes as in weight and speed and do not play the same competition often . So I find it hard to compare teams , is there any books or videos you can suggest to help me understand the college game?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +3

      I haven't done any videos targeting college handicapping specifically. My recommendation if you look into trying to beat a college sport is to narrow your focus. There are 300+ NCAA basketball programs, over 200 football programs in normal times, focus on just a conference to start (non-power 5 would be easier). Get to know all of those teams relative to each other. Players change frequently, but coaches don't.

  • @nicerides9224
    @nicerides9224 Год назад

    This is why I only bet with a betting exchange. They take 5% of any win and they don't care whether I'm making a killing because it's not affecting their profits. I can just bet what I think is the best value and not worry about being limited. Even better they let me run a bot to place my bets and they provide the info to help me write the bot. To an exchange a good customer is anyone who has a lot of turnover whether they win or not.

  • @trushatg
    @trushatg Год назад +1

    Are you doing this to not get limited at the books?

    • @juhDaddy09
      @juhDaddy09 Год назад

      What do you mean by that? Doing what?

  • @davdgrohlfoo
    @davdgrohlfoo 4 года назад +2

    I guess my question is that if lesser bet sports have an edge then why aren't the sharps all over them? You say the WNBA has more betting opportunities because the lines aren't as sharp, then I don't understand why the sharp money doesn't flow in and make these lines sharp. Where in contrary if the NBA lines are sharp then sharp money wouldn't come in so in theory they wouldn't be as sharp. It just seems like the smaller markets would be played by only sharp bettors because squares are betting major markets and what is on tv so the small markets are only being bet by sharp bettors. I know you know way more than me I am just curious as to why the small markets have a better percentage to be beaten.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +4

      You're thinking about it the right way, Chris, but the key behind markets tending towards efficiency is also based on their market liquidity. Let's pretend 10% of the world is sharp and we have a market that only 10 people will bet into, only one person's opinion is the sharp force in that market and if we, as the bookmaker, react by moving the line based on their wager, we might move it too far before they come back and maybe bet the other side.
      Now if we have a market that's bet into by 1000 people, then we have 100 different sharp opinions coming in on a line and we'll know sooner where the right number ends up being as sharp action from those 100 will hammer it into place. This explains the dichotomy between WNBA and say the NBA. So why don't more sharps play the WNBA if it is so inefficient? Well, because they can't. Bookmakers also recognize that with less liquidity from all sides (sharp and public) they can't afford to take only sharp action. The public just isn't as interested in WNBA. So they keep limits low. This creates an attrition effect. Sharps don't want to take the time to try and beat a sport they can only bet relative pennies in. Without a ton of sharps, the market stays a bit inefficient.
      This is why sports like that exist towards the top of the pyramid, the market just won't bear unfettered action on that sport until the public begins to embrace it more. Paradoxically, if the public ever embraces WNBA and liquidity increases, sharps will eat up those inefficiencies faster.

    • @livedoglefty4995
      @livedoglefty4995 4 года назад +2

      To add-on as you kind of touched on. If a sharp bettor just bets WNBA or smaller “niche” markets only, the books will show them the door quick. I use to just bet props and that resulted in my first ever limits and ultimately being shut off, eventually the work I was doing on props and finding games to bet wasn’t worth what I was winning, my hourly rate was less than $5. I’ve learned now to mix in my props with major markets just to keep the account open.

    • @kristinrondinella9816
      @kristinrondinella9816 3 года назад

      Odd sports limits are generally very low

  • @Brokenankle57
    @Brokenankle57 4 года назад +1

    I know you have touched on prop betting. But is there any of your videos you would recommend to watch that go into detail regarding props and prop betting

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +2

      I haven't done a video yet based on how to analyze and bet props. It's a broad topic and, so far, I've tried to steer clear of topics that might step on other bettors' toes by exposing how they earn. That said, with MLB fast approaching I'm considering a video that talks about MLB betting and the various types of derivatives and props that are available during MLB season.

    • @Brokenankle57
      @Brokenankle57 4 года назад

      @@CaptainJackAndrews totally respect that. Great videos and ill keep my eyes out!

  • @mikeb8414
    @mikeb8414 2 года назад

    Sorry for my incompetence but what is the difference between prop bets and derivatives? I am new to sports betting and now that online gambling has started in NY I've jumped into the apps.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  2 года назад +1

      A derivative bet is a wager that is related to a larger more mainstream market. For instance, we know the price on the game spread. However, if a book offers a wager on just the 1H, that would be a derivative that is tied to the larger market.
      A prop is a wager on a certain thing happening in the game, like QB Passing Yards. It is not derived from the game line, but is more of an independent market.

  • @coffeeguy4153
    @coffeeguy4153 2 года назад +1

    Where do alternate lines on major sports fall?

  • @rodbrock4759
    @rodbrock4759 Год назад

    Do you like betting in other countries online, Is it safe ?

  • @chrishaynes4823
    @chrishaynes4823 3 года назад

    Hey Jack what part of the pyramid would you put the us open tennis tournament going on right now? Would that be considered a major sport or lessor sport?

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад

      Tennis and Golf majors I'd put in that base tier where all action is welcomed by books. Of course, if you're betting props or obscure bets within that tournament, that is definitely less mainstream.

  • @mike9356
    @mike9356 3 года назад

    I WISH I HAD THIS PROBLEM

  • @vickhones9961
    @vickhones9961 3 года назад +5

    These books are criminal. Down a few grand at a place like fanduel and still limited. Other books very scared to take action . I'm ready to sue some of these
    jersey books. Borgata will limit you to almost nothing along with MGM. I need to take action with gambling commission but probably will be long process.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +4

      It does seem unfair that these books can take in $668 million in wagers in August in JUST NJ alone and cry that they can't afford to book sharp bettors. The liquidity in the market is massive. Not only do they probably limit people that aren't long-term winners, but they probably spend more money in finding these "sharps" than they'd potentially lose if they just booked them. 🙄

    • @Veaseify
      @Veaseify 3 года назад +1

      @@CaptainJackAndrews When the only legal betting was in Vegas the Sportsbooks would take action from known sharps to mark their cards and move the line to a more accurate number. Because they were subsidised by the huge profits from the casinos they were happy to break even over a year. Online and offshore bookmakers don't want any consistent winners because their whole game is gouging bettors.
      As a sports bettor from the UK all I can say is you better pray that Ladbrokes or William Hill or any other British bookie don't get a major presence in the States.....

    • @Veaseify
      @Veaseify 3 года назад

      @Edge Razors They have Betfair in New Jersey - you have to remember that not all of the states have legalised Sports Betting yet. Liquidity is terrible, that is why nobody uses it over there.

  • @JeffersonCanedo
    @JeffersonCanedo 3 года назад +1

    Captan Jack I love all your videos. Give me your address so I can send you a new mic.

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад

      😂 There's a lot I've learned about video production since the first 3-4 months of videos on this channel. I'm tempted to go back and re-record some. The message was strong - the delivery was weak. Thanks for bearing through it though!

  • @STree42
    @STree42 3 года назад +1

    Do you have any direct evidence that books are looking through accounts with this level of detail? Seems like you're over-fitting the solution. I suspect it's a lot more like: "So, this guy is up $30k on us. More than half his action are on small sports and props. Let's cut him."
    I think people need to focus more on finding an edge that building a betting narrative...

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  3 года назад +1

      While it's possible they are purely results driven, I have heard from employees who have told me they profile bettors based on what they bet and not how much a user wins. Personally, I was severely limited on DraftKings with a cumulative win of less than $600 after just a couple weeks.

    • @BeardLegend
      @BeardLegend 3 года назад

      Given the fact that it's so easy to track your action, i'd guess that the process is likely to be largely automated, with some human oversight.

  • @beamerball4420
    @beamerball4420 3 года назад

    I martingale UFC underdogs every saturday and profit all the time

  • @antikokalis
    @antikokalis 4 года назад

    Sound 5/10

    • @CaptainJackAndrews
      @CaptainJackAndrews  4 года назад +2

      I agree. Left on multiple inputs and that produced that slight echo effect. Won't be making that mistake again...I hope. 😕

    • @antikokalis
      @antikokalis 4 года назад

      @@CaptainJackAndrews Thanks for listening. Get someone to help you maybe? Gl