I haven't watched the video so probably covers it but I would say the best part is plug-and-play with NATO munitions. There is a lot of an F-16 can do without getting close to the front line.
It’s one of the things I like about Alex, he keeps his commentary real, outlining both the good and bad as he has done here. I think these will be a valuable addition to Ukrainian capabilities, especially if used in the correct manner for operational support. It will mean that Russia doesn’t have the upper hand in some situations where they might currently.
Perhaps the biggest thing is that the F-16s can deploy most, if not all, of NATO's air-launched weapons. Of which there are *many* . No more jerry-rigging stuff to use NATO weapons with their Cold War-Era planes and getting only a fraction of the full capability of those weapons.
one question he didn't raise is "who's going to fix these jets?". Ukrainian technicians will face a steep learning curve with a new jet, a new language, new alphabet, and a completely different design ethos in the F-16. additionally, recruiting foreign maintainers is complicated by the fact that anyone working on Ukrainian jets in Ukraine will be considered combatants and will be subject to Russian attempts to target and kill them.
@@michaelnewell9662 Ukrainian people are generally very good at speaking and reading English, I’ve worked with quite a number of them. There’s also the potential for them to be sent over the border into Poland for maintenance similar to what is happening with some of the tanks in use by Ukraine. Maintenance of the aircraft is also done very far from the front lines, the likelihood of capture by Russia is incredibly low, whether it’s foreign mechanics or Ukrainian.
I asked a former career USAF F-16 pilot friend, a retired Lt. Colonel with over 10,000 hours in the Viper if having the Viper will bring the Ukrainians an advantage and he thinks they will-with high quality training and practice. In some ways he said the airplane is easy to fly and in other ways complicated to employ. Hopefully the first training group are experienced pilots that will make the transition much easier
I came to say just this... but listening Alex... they don't get Vipers... but what they get can be upgraded to Vipers, the point is, are they?... A Viper upgrade would be awesome, but how long would it take to be approved?... it's a stupid thing all around and after the war, there will be a lot of talk about ''delays'' and 'reasons''... Anyway, Ukraine learn a lesson... never give up your weapons again, and make sure you can offer protection... not ask for...!
After seeing analysts comment on how UA forces deployed Leopards and Bradleys in Zaporizhzhia offensive, I think the shortened crew / pilot training and lack of systematic approach and integration will lead to less than expected performance. If F-16s were to be confirmed back in August last year, and training started around that time, with a more complete "system" delivery, I think it could have made a huge difference.
@@nctrns ''anal-ysts'' predicted that Ukraine would fall in a few days!... when the Ukis deployed the Western Armor in Zapo and got kicked they were simply fighting the ''Western way'' but without air support!... so they pulled back and now they innovate ways to fight every day... wanna play the blame-game?../ blame those who are holding Ukraine back!.// blame those who want ruZZia to ''pull out''... blame those who don't want ruZZia to be invaded... blame those who NED ruZZia, so THEY can exist too...
That might be the most important piece of the puzzle. If an airplane is broke, it's not doing anyone any good. Safe to assume we and our NATO allies are working hard to make that a reality with Ukrainian maintainers. It's the biggest hurdle in my mind.
@@steveofthewildnorth7493 how exactly is that gonna happen? you have 30-40% of aircraft down for maintenance at any given time, and that's during peacetime in the united states with the best and brightest crews with half a century of experience operating the thing, and with the best infrastructure and logistics in the world and a budget of a trillion dollars per year and the full weight of the united states department of defense behind them, and with the manufacturer being a domestic company right around the corner when specialized expertise is needed, and with a whole big ass aircraft boneyard in arizona that is available for parts when needed. and guys still need to pull off miracles to get the planes back in the sky, and cannibalize some to put others back into working condition. what are those numbers gonna be like in ukraine with their shitty runways filled with patched up cruise missile potholes and everything? like 50 or 60% of the aircraft down for maintenance at any given time? especially since we're talking about second hand fifty year old aircraft here.. i don't even know how the heck anyone expects this whole thing to be set up in the poorest and most corrupt country on the continent while they are being invaded by retarded russian cavemen and their facilities are taking hits from apartment-seeking and kindergarten-seeking and church-seeking old soviet junk cruise missiles? not like there is a little IKEA manual for how to set up the whole network of infrastructure and logistics and maintenance needed to operate fourth generation aircraft. it would take a whole army of consultants and contractors from lockheed and dozens of other companies that would have to go there on the ground and spend years there to show them how to do things and put everything together for them. while once again dodging russian cruise missiles and risking their lives. i honestly doubt that it will happen. it would take probably like a decade. this whole thing of ukrainians and their poorly-trained soviet-minded military suddenly getting western tanks and western fourth generation aircraft seems more like a distraction and propaganda thing than anything else. more of a "hey looky here, genius ukrainian super-pilots learned to operate fourth generation western aircraft in a few months unlike those dummies in the west that need 3-5 years! aren't we great? we're basically up to western standards now, so you should let us join NATO and send your kids to die in ukraine and risk starting a nuclear war!" kind of thing.. remember how they said "oh yeah, 4 months tops, big game-changing western aircraft in ukraine by september for sure" back in may when they first announced this? well now we're in september and they can't even find more than six guys that would even fit the criteria needed for the job, and they don't speak a word of english, so turns out that they would need 4 months of training just in terms of english classes to learn the aircraft-related nomenclature. this means that they're not even gonna start the written and classroom portion of the training let alone step foot anywhere near the aircraft before sometime early next year. and even then.. what, they are gonna learn the 3-5 years worth of training that is needed to master this aircraft in a few months by talking with some little pilots from the netherlands that probably have like zero combat experience and that barely get like an hour or two of flight time per month, with their little fleet of like two squadrons of goddamn fifty year old second hand aircraft? with ukrainians that will still barely understand a word of what the guys are telling them, and with the netherlands pilots speaking with a heavy netherlands accent.. it just seems ridiculous. it's gonna be like 2026 or 2027 before they get even just what was promised so far, and even then those pilots are gonna be limited because the training will still have been rushed. they're even talking about recycling already-existing ukrainian pilots to make the process faster, but that will only lead to lower quality pilots once again because those guys in the netherlands will have to attempt to pull off miracles to get those ukrainian pilots to forget their soviet communist training and doctrine that they learned when they were taught on those old rusty soviet flying garbage cans that they currently operate. and that kind of stuff sounds nice in training and everything, but like always once they actually go into combat and have russian cavemen firing and vodka air defenses firing missiles at them, they are gonna panic and get overwhelmed and revert back to their old soviet instincts. just like their ground forces are doing now. talked about big combined arms western maneuver style warfare and big concentrated attacks to break through the caveman lines and big lightning fast advance to the sea bypassing the defenses and surrounding the cities to force the reds to give up the whole south and "maybe even crimea by the end of the summer, war over by the end of the year for sure".. and then their clueless incompetent soviet-minded commanders sent our donated stuff right into minefields in broad daylight pulling a page right out of the retarded soviet communist russian playbook losing a huge chunk of their western hardware on the very first day without achieving anything and instead setting the tone for what would become a huge shitshow of an offensive. and now they are panicking because they're about to come up on a whole year with zero progress and they know that they need to show something after 100 billion dollars and a an entire summer of fighting for a couple of unknown villages, so they are freaking out and reverting back to what feels the most cozy and what they are the most comfortable with and what they know best.. good old soviet retardation and trench warfare human wave attack style war of attrition tactics. their big new genius plan is to attempt to outlast and out-dumb and out-russia the russians at their own game and hope that they run out of ammunition and cannon fodder before they themselves run out of ammunition and cannon fodder to throw at the russian lines. just mindless uncoordinated attacks across the entire front with absolutely zero larger goal other than just grabbing whatever chunk of empty field or shitty unknown village that nobody cares about in a desperate attempt to get any gains on the map and have something to show next month when funding runs out hoping that congress will give them another shot and vote to renew the funding.. that's the danger of sending in untrained people that have no idea what they are doing. it doesn't matter what the equipment is. you could have a goddamn flying saucer from area 51, but if you use it like your usual old rusty soviet flying garbage can, it's gonna be a flying garbage can and only be able to get you flying garbage can style achievements and successes. this is why pentagon officials said for over a year that ukraine doesn't need western tanks and aircraft at this stage and can't afford them or maintain them or operate them with any degree of effectiveness given their soviet-minded poorly-trained military that lacks the proper infrastructure and logistics and maintenance to keep these things running. but of course, as always, some genius civilians in the white house and state department decided to get involved and ignore their generals and squeeze them by the balls and force them to humiliate themselves by going back on what they had been saying for a year and suddenly "oh yeah, 4 months of training, perfect, game-changing fourth generation aircraft in ukraine real soon" like something that you would expect straight out of the propaganda department in kiev. it's sad because if we were serious about helping ukraine, the generals and our leaders would ignore zelensky and his propaganda and theatrics and just continue to provide what everyone knows the ukrainians need.. things that actually make a difference on the battlefield but that might not be as fancy. meaning insane amounts of artillery shells, ammunition for the high mobility rocket artillery system, more man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles like javelins and TOWs and stingers, precision-guided munitions that are simple to use like excalibur rounds and those british cruise missiles, the more fancy versions of JDAMs like the extended range or laser-guided ones for the rare times when the ukrainian air force is able to launch them given that they usually have to hug the trees and fly underneath power lines which doesn't work for something that glides, more MRAPs and maybe even other "medium" complexity stuff like bradleys since they are plentiful and save lives, those ground-launched small diameter bombs that are fired from the same pods as the high mobility rocket artillery systems, tons of little suicide drones, interceptors for air defense systems, and i guess as much of the modern western air defense systems that can be spared after their guys get the actual proper training order to replace their old soviet junk that is running out of interceptors, and beyond that maybe some things like jammers and counter-battery radars and things of that nature that perhaps they might be able to learn to use over the longer term. most of this stuff isn't fancy or shiny except maybe the patriot air defense systems, but these are what make a difference on the battlefield. this is what changes the course of the war if you can sustain them and provide enough over a long enough period of time until the reds and their worthless monopoly currency goes into toilet paper status and their economy turns into a full-blown stone age vodka breadline economy and they are forced to pull out due to being unable to continue to sustain the 72 hour special goodwill gesture operation.
@@issadraco532 Interesting that you seem to assume that such limitations only apply to Ukraine, and not Russia, which currently has aircraft falling out of the sky across the nation for no apparent reason at all.
RIP to callsign JUICE who is mentioned in this video. Confirmed he passed away today in a mid air collision with another mig29. Glory to the heroes and LONG LIVE UKRAINE 🇺🇦
I like how you put it to be honest, I was curious which blocks they were getting because it does mean a big ass difference, so good job on letting us know about their missiles and how ours work exactly now and when they get the F-16s. Plus how you explained the 3 modes on the harm system, that'll help them for sure now, plus they'll put the amraam to good use plus the harm, I'm sure once the word is out they'll definitely send out their newest to shoot some down, which sucks but it'll be inevitable that they definitely try, if they succeed I hope the next pilots know exactly where to exact the revenge with harm then a jasm
I hope there was at least somewhere in the fine print that peoples "aid for ukraine" will be used as revenge. how bout rebuilding instead of sending million dollar fireworks into innocent peoples homes? just a thought. Ukraine does not have the "cleanest" sleight when it comes to "post invasion behavior"
A bit out of context but I remember being at Farnborough Air Show in the late 80s. The MIG29 was there as well as the F16. Both pilots pushed their planes to the limit. It was more than impressive from both. A treasured memory.
@@forfun6273honestly if the Mig29 kept getting upgrades like the F16 did it would probably be the better fighter , but currently the F16 has much better avionics and radar systems which makes the Mig 29 better handling obsolete in head to head
@@Wahba. At the time the MiG-29 had some impressive features. It could go very fast, even at low altitude and had a high TWR. I think it had an early type of helmet-mounted sight which could be used to lock enemy aircraft and the R-73 IR missiles it carried were much more capable than Western missiles of that era, being able to engage targets at much larger angles off the axis of the seeker as well as being more manoeuvrable. After German reunification, Western experts were able to examine a number of East German MiG-29s along with their weapons and it came as quite a shock that the R-73 was so good. This revelation led in part to a new generation of Western IR missiles with new technologies such as imaging seeker heads and dramatically improved performance.
@@patrickbec68lmao he said Russia can’t develop air superiority, he fails to mention how different countries have different tasks/ equipments they consider better than the other. It’s like me saying the USA can’t develop advanced air defense system and powerful artillery because they’re superior.
It's basically 50+ of block 52 F16s being sent over. It'll allow the full use of AGM88s, enables use OF AIM120-D and AIM9-M, and probably could be used to launch SCALP EG as well. Also opens the door for JASSM. It's going to double the Ukrainian Air Force fleet of combat jet.
The Dutch planes were top of the list equipped with Block 52 upgrades, and their ready state was at 80+ % at all times due to the massive amount of parts and equipment kept by the 312, 313, and 315 squadrons, and trained in the US maintenance teams, read my comment :)
RIP Juice, the Ukrainian pilot mentioned here was confirmed deceased today. Sounds like a crash, not a KIA situation, but they're investigating it. He was one of their premier pilots.
I just saw that earlier today. Kind of stunned since watching this story. Ukraine needs every truly capable pilot like Juice they can get. This a real tragedy for his family and country. But, adversity only makes Ukraine stronger. God bless all the brave people of Ukraine. They will prevail.
I think the Ukrainians will do alright with them. We've seen that they are extremely motivated to learn and to be totally honest that might be the greatest power there is. They will make mistakes and just like the Leo2 and Bradleys, the F-16 will not be a silver bullet. However, like the Leo2 and Bradleys, I suspect there will be a lot of grateful Ukrainian soldiers and families for our hardware getting them back alive where they otherwise would not.
The F-16 will only lead to a longer war, more soldiers will die, and their families will be unhappy and poor, no one will be grateful for the f-16, because they are inferior in all respects to Russian aircraft.
Yeah true and they’ve only lost like 5 Leo 2s so there very good at using these weapons it’s just the western politicians are like hmm how about an excuse as an American it pisses me off
I still maintain the biggest thing about getting a Western aircraft is access to Western munitions. AIM-120s, the full capability of the HARM, the list goes on. More ease of integrating other European weapons systems like the Meteor. Lots and lots of options, and that's what the Viper is for Ukraine. Access to a whole lot of options.
Practice makes perfect. That's been standard military doctrine for thousands of years. Thanks for a really good update on a subject that most of us are struggling to understand.
Russia shot down a Boeing 777 full of Dutch civilians. The Dutch have not forgotten. Nor have they forgiven. They have been waiting for payback. Time has come.
@@z_actual Still a huge dollar outlay for a nation the size of The Netherlands. Even if it is sunk cost since that's money spent long ago and they're replacing them with F-35's anyway.
@@steveofthewildnorth7493 yes it is, it is also characteristic of the rest of Europe as regards NATO. The state of this equipment has been allowed to run down in an uneven manner, and Ukraine will need considerable help to assess the health of and subsequent safety of these airframes, and prepare them for combat use.
The main variant going to UA is the F16AM(MLU). The most critical capabilities it brings are NATO standard data links, allowing GBAD & NATO AWACS to guide or target missiles or aircraft interchangeably. I'd say this is indisputably an advantage UA will receive, regardless what they do short of kamikazing lol
"an advantage" Do you even understand the fact that Russian datalinks are considerably more effective than the Nato-standard? Or the fact that even the Ukraine's old MiG-29s already had datalinks, although the Soviet standard model rather than the drastically improved Russian version which is based on the much better datalink that was developed for the MiG-31. "NATO AWACS to guide or target missiles or aircraft interchangeably" Uh-huh... And the fact that doing so would be a direct declaration of war by Nato against Russia and make those AWACS instantly legal targets for Russia, you ignore that how exactly?
one of the things that weren't mentioned is the HARM pod combined with the sniper or litening targeting pod, now I am not sure if Ukraine will get access to these pods, but the HARM pod can locate enemy radar sites with precision making it easy to find the precise location with a targeting pod and then relay this location to strike craft to attack it or even just use artillery fire instead
I think it's likely they will get these pods from the nations that are going to supply the F-16's. After all they are transitioning to F-35, which has those capabilities integrated, so they won't need them anymore. Same with the weapons for that matter. The Amraams and Sidewinders Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway use are for external carriage, not the models for internal carriage as would be needed on F-35. What I am wondering is if the F-16 Ukraine will get will get a coat of Have Glass V. We know the Danish are applying them to their own F-16's, but I wonder if the Dutch and Norwegian jets will get it as well. That would be a serious advantage imo.
@@Typexviiib Meteor, at least by published stats, has twice the "No Escape Zone" range of AMRAAMS (60Km vs 30Km). Not surprising since it is a later design, Both are well within F16's radar range, and this may prove the more important statistic vs maximum range.
The SU25 has a RWR, it's less detailed but still, it gives the pilot sufficient info to dodge Radar guided missiles both from Air and Ground radar guided threats. What the SU25 pilot meant is that he does not have an IR guided missiles launch warning for heat seekers, that is also the case with the Viper.
It sounds like the Ukrainian Su25s lack them compared to Russia’s more advanced version. Their RWRs are pretty basic though; it just has lights that light up in whichever direction the threat is coming from and a general indicator of distance. They don’t have screens like NATO planes.
@@milanprica7513Not really true. Even the F14 could semi accurately track active radar missiles and have it displayed on its RWR screen showing relative distance.
I have heard that Norway have also added their name to the list of countries preparing to supply Ukraine F-16's. This news will add another 12 F-16's to the current list of aircraft which will bring the proposed number of Ukrainian F-16's squadrons up to 6.
They will probably get the airplanes in batches, a few at first and than more later. But more importantly, I heard somewhere that currently only 8 ukrainian pilots are trained on the f16. So more pilots will need to be trained after this batch as well.
@@Teutonic_Nobility Lol they already got advanced missiles for these aircrafts before getting the aircrafts themselves. Just look at HARM missiles for a start. JDAM as well etc.
@@Teutonic_Nobility Lol they will not be destroyed. From the 150 leopards only 9 got destroyed so far in 12 weeks of assaults with them. Also all Russia's missiles send to Kiev are being consistently shot down. Russia will not be easily able to destroy any f16's. Ofcourse in prolonged warfare some of them will be lost eventually but it will all be worth. Also Ukraine would not get modern artillery, tanks, long range weapons and fighter jets either. They already have the HARM Missiles along with some other missiles. It is only a matter of time till they will get the other missiles.
@@Teutonic_NobilityI mean that can be said for anything ? It’s war shit will be destroyed so what? Also that says that those air bases won’t be defend by air defense, can air defenses fail , of course anything can fail but I don’t think they will all be destroyed just out of now where, second I’ve seen more of a talking point to use them to shoot down missiles and stuff more then dog fighting which could help move around air defenses and or take pressure off, personally I think the option of using as a sort of “air defense” against drones and missiles is better !
I mean it is claimed that those hyper sonic have been shot down with patriot so idk about no defense, and I mean Ukraine will probably get like 30-60ish planes maybe ? so decent number and this might not be the last time F-16s are donated idk if you really thought about that, also its been 18 months at war attrition has not been looking great @@Teutonic_Nobility
Data link is what enables the FULL function of HAARM & other western munitions. Currently, for ex. JDAM & Stormshadow must be programmed on the ground, leaving ALL the flexibility these weapons provide on the table. But now, with F16AM they can be redirected & programmed in fight & even after fired.
During the Gulf War of 1991, Wild Weasel missions were done by the F4-G Wild Weasel V. Currently, it is the F-16CJ/DJ but for deep strike missions, the F-15E Strike Eagle is used as it is still the fastest thing in the air, today.
These might be fighters which are currently being put out of service by us - however - up till recently the Danish air force have been given a lot of praise for their effectiveness in NATO operations. They seem to be very well kept fighters and they have flown A LOT of missions with very few hickups. Since 1980 we have bought 77 F16s - of which 10 have been lost. This includes everything from combat to training. A direct translation of some facts about the Danish F16 service: "Here you can read more about the Air Force's combat aircraft F-16 Fighting Falcon: * The air force's F-16 aircraft are of the Fighting Falcon type and can both fight against other aircraft in the air and carry out precise bombing of targets on the ground. * Denmark decided in 1975 to buy 58 F-16 aircraft. The first arrived in Denmark in 1980, after which the planes gradually replaced the Air Force's other planes. * Today, Denmark has 40 F-16 aircraft, of which 30 are still in use. * The planes are armed with a 20 millimeter machine gun and also have stations for bombs, rockets and missiles. * The Danish F-16 aircraft have been used in several international operations in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq. * F-16 fighter jets are on duty around the clock to repel unwanted aircraft in Danish airspace or assist aircraft in trouble. * Denmark has decided that the F-16 aircraft must be replaced by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter. * The last Danish F-16 aircraft are expected to be retired in Denmark in 2027. * The first four Danish F-35 aircraft arrive on 1 October. In total, Denmark has purchased 27 F-35 aircraft. " So in essence let's make this ABUNDANTLY CLEAR!: These F16s ARE STILL in service and are daily helping keeping the Russian air force at bay when they make incursions into Scandinavian airspace as part of the "Nordic Air Force" - a force of aprox. 250 F-35, F-16, F-18, and JAS39C/D/E. They are not relics from a museum - nor are they lesser than almost any other aircraft currently serving in NATO. Furthermore the pilots and crews are being trained by our pilots and crews - who knows these fighters inside and out. There is a HUGE advantage to this being the F16 - since our expertise of using these machines of war in actual modern combat is second to non - even the Americans. We were there right next to you - fighting in the same wars and earning recognition from the rest of NATO. What's my point here? My point is this: You keep saying "IF". "IF" the Ukrainians can this or that... I think that's a mute point m8! These pilots and crews are gonna be trained by the best in the world. They WILL make a huge difference - and they WILL use them to their fullest extent as long as they can! And yes you are 100% correct that they will lose some of our F16s in this fight! There is NO getting around that... But can you seriously think of a better sendoff for these magnificent fighters than fighting for the freedom of a sovereign nation which is under attack by overwhelming odds? 1 to 2 SU-27? Hell! Let's make it 1 to 10! Let's make a bet and see who comes closest! Slava Ukraini!
Very good, informative and educative video👍 Nothing like uneducated guys speaking of that all the F-16s and Netherlands, Denmarks or Belgium F-16s are the same F-16 blocks and same capabilities or they are new airframes. Very good work. Maybe u can also mention about these F-16s expected air-ground use. You know everybody expect they will be very useful to summer offensive and break the defensive lines. So after Suppressin of Air defenses, they are expected to destroy the defensive lines of trenches, mines, artilleries with weapons like LGBs, Jdams or other weapons staying out of range of shorads. Could u do a video about this, but as good as this one😊😎?
My best guess is that Ukraine is largely going to use F-16's for SEAD, and ground attack. I seriously doubt they are going to try to get into air dominance fights with Russia if they can avoid it. As mentioned, Russia still has a significant number of jets and anti-air weaponry. So, I think a Ukraine will mostly be setting up sorties where two or three F-16's perform SEAD missions while several more make ground attacks to either blunt a Russian attack, or to disrupt the Russian lines in a small area to allow ground forces to advance. So basically, get in the air and run like hell to a spot on the front lines, keep the ground-based AA quiet, drop some bombs, and leave before Russian jets can intercept. I expect to some missions to intercept Russian missile raids as well, but in general I think most of what the F-16's will be doing is ground attack. I do NOT expect to see F-16's patrolling the skies over Ukraine, waiting for calls for CAS or to chase off incoming Russian KA-52's or SU-24's, or anything like that. I do not expect to see them crossing the border to hunt down Russian jets that get close to launch cruise and ballistic missiles. I do not expect to see them flying out over the Black sea and sinking Russian warships. I do not expect to see them fly down to the Kerch bridge and blow more holes in it. While these are all things the F-16 would certainly be capable of, I think the realities of still being outnumbered and possibly outgunned in the air will make them unlikely. For now, the F-16 is probably a way to attack Russian positions on the front lines that will be way more effective than what the SU-24's can manage right now. For me, the biggest question for me is whether or not Russia will be forced to go after the F-16's in the air and start putting their own aircraft at serious risk again, or if they will continue to stay away from Ukrainian SAMs and hope they can attack the F-16's on the ground rather than in air-to-air combat. I'm really not sure if Russia is more concerned about potentially losing more jets, or seeing their defensive lines broken by aerial bombing. Either way, I think the F-16's are going to make a real difference, but not turn the whole tide of the war.
Spot on, however that still might be very hard for the Ukrainians to do. Russia has been using MiG-31s to fire long range missiles within the safety of their borders to kill Ukrainian aircraft. These long range intercepts could easily kill F-16s if they stick around for too long.
Sure, but you need top cover, too. Basically, you need a total package for temporary local superiority. Maybe someone knows how many aircraft it will take to fulfill these roles at the same time.
The Kerch rail bridge is a vital target. So is the road bridge. After some preparatory taxing of Russian AD over days, I can see Ukraine putting a large package of drones, SEAD F16s and F16s with 1000lb bombs together to making a sacrificial (if necessary) attack on the bridge. Russia would have to use the land bridge rail systems more, which the UAF is getting closer to almost daily. Shut down heavy freight to Kherson oblast and Crimea and the Russian military there starts to decay.
@@timtrewyn453Don't forget the Storm Shadow that already has the bridge under threat. Ukraine already knows the RF supply lines and has destroyed the intermediate bridges and depots with Artillery and rockets to put them under critical stress. So very effective with what they already have. Likewise the drone deep fires on remote bases has both reduced reserve replacement and shown that the war is in ruzzia.
Yes. Take down enemy radar so they can launch cruise missiles at empty C&C, ammo, etc. also enables them to intercept R aircraft on attacks as they will have less AA defense of their own to fly over
Pilot training programs aren't going away after the first class graduates . There are thousands of F-16s.Implementation of F-16s while time consuming is sustainable in significant numbers .
At 16:50 you mention a Ukrainian pilot with the call sign Juice. Unfortunately today it was announced by the Ukrainian MoD that Juice and two other pilots died as a consequence of a collision of two Ukrainian training jets.🙏
Wow, so notching is actually a tactic against modern missile systems. It's a thing in DCS, and I've always been left wondering if that's something that they built up into something more effective than in real life in order to add additional dynamics to BVR fights..
nice work on the a/a match up and how the wiring and computers inside will allow for more efficient use of missiles against aircraft and radars. one or two other items to consider--greater availability of weapons that can be supplied (not having to find old soviet stockpiles) from nato/west stores and the more effective use against ground targets due to on board f16 systems (thinking even a few gbu's & tpods might attrit some Russian depots or make combat supply lines more tenuous.
It will also have a major effect on the Black Sea. Some of them can carry the Harpoon. The HARM and the Harpoon can make a good 1-2 punch when it comes to ships. If they also get the JASSAM then they really have a way to make the Russians' life hard. Will some get shot down? Probably. The F-16s in Ukraine will be fighting without AWACs or Rivit Joint support. That will make a big difference in how well they can work. It will be interesting if the APG68s they get have been updated to the V10 mode. That is the current version, in US service. They are being replaced by the SABRE system right now so a few of them might be sitting around that could be used for updating the planes Ukraine gets.
That is absolutely incredible!!! Absolutely amazing job from the cabin crew, pilots, not to mention the crew on the other plane for the work they had already done. Incredibly sad for the families that lost someone but it could have been so much worse! And a huge well done to the engineers to the plane.
I caught this immediately, [it's at 0:40]. Ukraine declared its INDEPENDENCE in 1991. The United States declared its independence in 1776, but did not achieve that statues until 1783. that is due the difference in fighting an extant Power [Great Britian] and a power imploding and ceding its domination over a state. . . Ukraine had it relatively easy until 2014.
Great thought-out video, as usual. You're right in that a lot of this will come down to the training of the pilots. Which is why, imo anyways, America has now agreed to help train them. We don't want to see our Vipers shot down any more than they do. I don't think they'll have any trouble avoiding the Mig-31 "hypersonic" missiles due to the RWR in the F-16 making it super easy to notch them. Overcoming a notch requires very advanced seeker tech that even our missiles aren't reliably capable of, and that "hypersonic," fat, telephone pole the Mig-31 is firing can't turn for squat. Plus, the longer the range, the easier it is to notch something. That missile, and the antique Mig-31 it's riding on, are more for shooting down AWACS, tankers or B-52s and B-1s. I also don't think the Su-35's thrust vectoring will even be a factor in this fight. This is going to primarily a BVR fight where both aircraft dance around the MAR and lob missiles at each other till they run out and decide to go home to get more. Both sides can't afford to get into the 50/50 chance, kill or be killed scenario that is a 'merge' because they don't have a way to replace the aircraft quickly, or at all, in some cases. That being said, if a merge DID happen, it would come down to the training of the pilots. The Su-35 is a deadly plane during the first few seconds of a merge IF it sticks to a single turn, meaning nose-to-nose, dogfight due to its thrust vectoring and high off-bore sight Archers. But that only lasts for a short time because that type of fight with thrust vectoring in a plane as big as the Su-35 bleeds off energy extremely quickly. The Su-35's got about 2, maybe 3 turns to score a hit. After that, the aircraft usually has lost too much energy and can't maintain the 1 circle fight. At which point the Su-35 starts to feel like a bus, compared to the F-16 that continues to feel like a Porsche. That doesn't mean it's still not deadly and can't still win. But, if the F-16 sticks to trying to push the two-circle fight, and doesn't take the bait and try to go nose-to-nose, the F-16 will win the dogfight almost every time. If the F-16 can keep to its type of fight, a "rate" fight, it can win a merge with any other fighter in use today EXCEPT the F-22. Of course, this is based solely on data analysis and simulations on my part, though I do know the US Navy has participated in training dogfights against the Su-35 in F/A-18s where they reported they were victorious in about 60% of the scenarios. Unfortunately, I have no data from similar practices done by F-16s against the same plane. And remember, this is just my estimation based on the data we do have from simulations, and the official information Russia has revealed... which we now know a lot of which is complete bulls***. The biggest game changer the F-16 brings to Ukrainian pilots, though, is the RWR. Which again, you were absolutely right about. That will turn this completely one-sided air fight into a nearly even one. You can't have a BVR fight with an enemy that has a radar that is 2-3 times more powerful than yours, and likewise much longer range missiles. The RWR will save so many pilot's lives, and actually give them a fighting chance in the BVR fight that Ukraine is already trying to fight with both hands tied behind their back and blindfolded. Now they'll at least be able to see the punches coming, and even throw back some of their own. Also, I know from my own personal experience, and from what we have observed so far, Ukrainians are VERY quick studies when motivated, and will likely excel at adapting to the F-16 just like everything else they've been given.
you only consider fighter against fighter. ukraine has a much bigger problem against russian helicopters. they have recently upgraded to a new missile with 30 km range to use against ukrainian armor. the F-16's will be able to take those on easily .
I think there’s barely been any kills from WVR combat during this entire war. They stopped doing WVR after the first few months and settled for this game of cat and mouse. A dogfight is never going to happen unless Russia wants some propaganda or something.
Your show is always interesting and informative. I respect the fact that you do not get into politics and are fairly open minded and neutral. Please give it me straight and be objective ❤
My greatest worry is not the performance of the F-16 but the logistics which is required. Besides requiring pristine airstrips (which the Ukrainians don't have yet), the F-16 is apparently very needy in terms of maintenance, requiring technicians who undergo years of training.
You could teach the basic stuff, like changing oil and maintaining. You don't need to go to school to change tires, or change a seat in your car. However as it get complicated you will bring it to professional
@@andrerothweiler9191 maintaining a plane is way more complicated than maintaining a car. An F-16 requires 17 hours of maintenance per hour of flight. Some operations require a hazmat suit. And schlepping the planes to Poland after each sortie might be tricky.
@@andrerothweiler9191the F-16 uses hydrazine for its APU. Google those terms. That’s why the other talks about a hazmat suit - he is completely correct.
@@JimCarner all jets hate debris that could be sucked in the reactor at takeoff. A single bolt may mess things up. Soviet/Russian doctrine is to add mechanisms to their planes to avoid this. Western doctrine is to use a small army of people who walk down the runway shoulder-to-shoulder looking for any debris. Furthermore, the fact that the F-16 air intake is below the plane (so really close to the ground) makes it even more prone to suck any debris. It is possible that Ukraine may have a couple of suitable runways. But then they may be a prime Russian target.
Another great video Alex. Thanks for all your hard work. I have a question wouldn't the A-10, F-16 be a good combination for Ukraine's push next year? They should have two teams training on both aircraft. I am sure there are enough english speaking translators to help the new people adjust while they train. I want US to increase the behind the scenes efforts and training.
@@Appletank8 The F-16's are the air cover. If you watch one of Alex's previous videos on how the A-10 can be used as a flying weapons platform behind the front. It is not for dog fighting and they are tough as hell. Russian manpads are in short supply.
@@Typexviiib They survived Iran and Iraq. They are not invincible but do a lot of damage on the field of battle. Besides Russian manpads are in short supply. They seem to have a chip supply problem.
@@jerrywatson1958 The amount of maintenance needed to keep A-10s flying gives off the impression that their toughness is now heavily coated in rust. Why are you tasking an A-10 to do what the F-16 can already do, and simplify logistics?
Can you give a HARM steering points? You can set the altitude for each waypoint that way with SLAM-ER missiles. Set them to like 60-70ft and SAM systems won''t see them coming. There's an easier to find low/mid/high selector for alt, but it doesn't go low enough to avoid the S-300. You use a datalink to manually steer that one last min so it's probably better for static targets. 1000lb warhead though. Like a storm shadow then. Big boom. The SAM's blow up every time using those in the simulator. They never get shot down that way. I don't think you can use them as effectively on moving targets as the harms though. I'm just screwing around in the simulators. They might be more advanced than I know.
Thanks Alex, the info and commentary is always informative and thought provoking. Hit the Like Button folks, it will help more folks to find this excellent resource.
Correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't the Viper and all-weather/anytime attack aircraft while the 29 is not? Oh yeah, the 29 doesn't really do ground attack either. Boy! Do those Ukranian pilots have a lot to learn!! However, I do agree with the comment that they are extremely motivated and are the best Ukraine can send. 2024 is going to have a different look over the skies of Ukraine.
Commentary I've seen from USAF sources says one of the biggest challenges is that Ukraine operates fighters out of austere airfields. The F-16 requires excellent runways and has no FOD protection to keep foreign objects out of the intake when taking off or recovering. Such airfields would become instant targets for Russia, so I'm curious as to how Ukraine plans to overcome this problem.
Nah, it's way more complex. Not only are Vipers not meant to land on austere runways like roads, F-16s are base-oriented aircraft from a conceptual design standpoint. There is a heavy maintenance burden including dozens of crew, parts logistics, and tooling that need to be available to keep the jets flying. It's not well-suited to operate in the types of field conditions that Russian MiGs can tolerate. This issue will be the hardest thing to overcome with Western fighters because by the time you can establish ground crew, maintenance facilities, and a place to reliably land you've created a pretty significant target. I do think they can figure out how to get a few flying, but this is a way larger problem than just getting jets and training pilots. @@joeybobbie1
Introduction: After over a year of requests, Ukraine is set to receive F-16 Fighting Falcons to aid against the ongoing Russian invasion. The Netherlands plans to transfer 42 F-16s, and Denmark has promised 19 more. While this is a victory for Ukraine, it's essential to understand the capabilities and limitations of these jets. Analysis Challenges: The topic is vast, and it's challenging to condense the information. There are many variables, including the specific systems on the F-16s and their varying capabilities. F-16 Capabilities: The F-16s will be a significant upgrade from Ukraine's current fleet of Soviet-era Mig-29s and Su-27s. The F-16s have better radar and missile systems, offering a significant increase in capability. Training and Usage: While Ukrainian pilots are being trained to operate the F-16s, achieving the same level of proficiency as American pilots will take time. The effectiveness of the F-16s will also depend on how they are used in combat. Russian Air Doctrine: Russia's approach to air warfare is different from the West. They view air power as an extension of ground forces. The video suggests that Russia's doctrine is more about mitigating its strategic and tactical shortcomings rather than a different approach to warfare. F-16 vs. Russian Aircraft: The F-16s, especially with the AGM 88 high-speed anti-radiation missile, will be better equipped for suppression or destruction of enemy air defense compared to Ukraine's current jets. However, the F-16s might still be outclassed by some Russian fighters, like the Su-35, on paper. But real-world performance can differ from paper specifications. Potential Losses: It's likely that some F-16s will be lost in the conflict. However, the provision of F-16s to Ukraine is a significant show of global support. Russian media will likely try to diminish any F-16 losses to undercut global support for Ukraine. Conclusion: While F-16s are capable aircraft, the war involves more than just fighter jets. Winning the war will require more than just these aircraft.
CONCLUSION: Its not just the platform, its the operator ;) And no matter of CIA powered high speed training can trade for the absolute tens of thousands of hours spent practicing the myriad scenarios that can arise as you attempt to out-OODA loop that enemy fighter ;) half a year ago, any "advantage" that NATO weaponry and platforms was utterly wiped away in my mind. Its operator vs operator out there. In real conditions, any technological advantage has been heavily degraded, and this fact simply cannot be ignored.
@@maeton-gaming "half a year ago, any "advantage" that NATO weaponry and platforms was utterly wiped away in my mind." This proves you lost your mind and everything you said is BS or just very wishful thinking.
@@maeton-gaming See Air Force Manual 11-2F-16. Normal training time on the F16 is 12 months, followed by 4 months training in SEAD or other specialized missions. It's hundreds of hours, not tens of thousands. The normal training pace would be 8-hour days, five days a week. Depending on those involved, that pace can be stepped up.
@@maeton-gaming 18 months ago any belief I had that the Russian military could challenge the West evaporated in spectacular fashion when I saw video after video of Russian equipment getting wiped out or just abandoned on the battlefield because they ran out of fuel due to Russia's inability to do logistics.
As a former electronic warfare aircraft maintainer in the U.S. Air Force, specializing on the Wild Weasel system and its integration with the AGM-88 HARM, I don't understand how they are going to keep these F-16s operational. Who is going to fix them? Not only do they require day-to-day maintenance, flying combat sorties is going to accelerate the time tables for regular phase maintenance. Are they planning on flying them next door to Poland to have NATO maintainers do the work?
Radar warning receivers can always spot the transmission of a radar transmitter first. No problem at all. To have a two hundred mile range that transmitter has to be very powerful indeed. a good analogy is this. One can see the beam of a flashlight far sooner then that flashlight can see you.
Great video, thanks! I think it's also worth noting that, as with the Leopards and 155mm systems, one big advantage for Ukraine is going to be access to the wealth of F16 parts, fuel, weapons, facilities, and know-how that allied nations can offer. Ukraine's had to husband their already-limited resources very carefully so far, as it's not like Russian manufacturers are going to sell to them to refill their stocks. With the F16s, those limitations disappear. And while I'm sure Russia will send some of the best of what they have left in order to try to snipe F16s for the propaganda victory (seems to be one of Putin's biggest concerns), it's important to remember that "what they have left" isn't a lot. The toll on Russia's elite forces, especially in the wake of the failure of their initial sneak-attack decapitation strike, has been severe. The VDV basically doesn't exist anymore. The entire pre-war operational fleet of T80s has been wiped-out. The First Guards Tank Army is history. Can't imagine the Russian Air Force, with its continued failure to secure air superiority over a much smaller and much inferior Ukrainian force, has fared much better. If Ukraine continues to display the rationality and ingenuity that has seen them humble the Russian bear so completely to this point in their operation of the F16s, chances are they're going to have a lot of victories to show in not too long of a timeframe.
O-M-G! Alex, this video montage is like Air Force PORN!😁 If I didn't need one to fly, I'd give my right leg to do what they do flying in this vid. You've got great source material!
Thanks I was feeling frustrated it was taking so long to train the Ukrainian pilots, given that they have so much real combat experience already, but now I understand what the training is for.
3 simple points: F-16 spare parts available for sustained operations; the number of missiles, bombs and ammo for sustained operations, and the number of trained and experienced Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Add the readiness levels of various F-16s on top of that and you won't get the silver bullet you want.
These F-16s are going to end up like the Leopard tanks and Bradley vehicles. It isn't possible for these UK pilots to attain anywhere near proficiency in these airplanes. I wish them well but as an old fighter pilot myself, I just don't believe they can pull it off.
You mentioned a Ukrainian pilot call sign "Juice" in this video, sad to say he reportedly died today when his Mig-29 collided with another Ukrainian Mig-29. War is hell.
Alex to be blunt and honest about this, "You hit the Nail on the Head" friend it will take more than just the F-16 to win this war in Ukraine but it will help boost moral in Ukraine and that will help the people as a whole, yes as one gentleman said a balanced appraisal of this situation ... Thanks again Semp Fi
As a former part of the 312, 315 squads of F-16s in the Netherlands, I can guarantee you that the aircrafts delivered to Ukraine will have the latest and greatest up to block 52, and additional software upgrades, as well as defensive exploit suites to counter russian targeting systems, created internally in The Netherlands by Thales ( the developers of the GoalKeeper CIWS) and more features I am not allowed to disclose.
I really love it when mainstream media talks about the F-16 in the context of Ukraine as if it was a 5th gen fighter. I mean, i can't say i'm not super excited myself to see one of my favourite fighters and most beautiful aircraft ever made see action in a conflict like this again, but its still kinda funny and or sad.
As said in one of my earlier messages it seems Netherlands is providing 42 MLU's with updates till 2015. Se they are pretty recent but do lack the AESA radar.
Finally got to this after watching several hype pieces on the subject. This is exactly what someone wishing to understand the potential impact of this airframe on the war really needs. Just the facts.
Sadly, Andrii Pilshchykov “Juice” was one of three fatalities involving two L39 trainer aircraft in an accident over Zhytomyr Oblast on Friday 25th August 2023.
This is a great breakdown of what can be expected of Ukraine pilots using F-16's but I would like to add my thoughts. 1) It all depends on the Ukraine pilots training. I kind of assumed that at least some Ukraine pilots have started training months ago. I mean well on their way for training. 2) It takes months to train any pilot for any aircraft and here we are at the end of August 2023. The Ukraine ground troopers are gaining grounds and winter is approaching. Ukraine should be able to field capable F-16s this fall and over winter into next year. 3) Situational awareness that the F-16 can provide is in my opinion key and very Strategic The F-16 is an air to air and ground attack. 4) I think that the russian/soviet/putin air force is antiquated and it all comes down to pilot training. 5) Ukraine training, F-16 wild weasel and attack will break the russians. 6) The lack of russia training new pilots on old ass soviet airframes will be the downfall of putin. The truth is, Putin/russia is getting smashed left/right and center and in 2024 Ukraine will attack the orc mobliks when they hove no guns, no ammo, no boots, no winter coats and no love from putin.... F-16's will be the Ukraine game changer in my opinion. it will just take some months of training
Ukraine is not making any progress on the ground ...it is a war of attrition which is unwinnable against Russia. The Ukrainian army will collapse long before the F16 are operational and they would not make any kind of difference given the scale of this conflict. Ukrainian losses currently stand at 450000 to 550000 men and Russian losses maybe 70000 to 150000. The defender has a massive advantage in trench warfare and the Russians have spend months building fortifications. There are three lines and the first line has not even been breached ...
Its almost Feb 2024 now, and what ground gains has Ukraine had in the last year or ever since Russia dug in? Nothing worth mentioning. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine is losing. The world is less supportive and getting sick of the Ukraine war already. USA and UK already moving their focus back to middle east and if Trump wins, the money and weapons tap will be turned off, political support will be withdrawn, and Ukraine will be done and forced to make concessions and end the war which they could never win to begin with.
The only thing you must admit is that Jdam oo8 combat wombat division had better keep their 360clean and dry or it Katy bar the door . Don't get apac awac systems confused with 470A2P or leakage occurs at regular intervals above 60 meters per second ..with respect to enemy combatants or collateral damage .
I really like this channel because it is not just other peoples information and thought regurgitated. You get solid direct insight in every video. Some of the best quality air power and capability reporting.
It's no secret that the F-16s are seriously "delicate," requiring a high magnitude of just non combat maintenance. Add that the F-16 requires a rather 'perfect' runway environment - which is easily defeated by the limited number of Ukrainian air bases - and the ease of Russian attack missile targeting. Whether the F-16s are destroyed on the ground, in the air or their operating bases/runways are damaged/destroyed; their chance at being an effective weapons platform faces a lot of serious "problems." It shouldn't be lost that the Ukrainian air defense capabilities are already extremely limited, just in terms of protecting Kiev. It's naive to discount Russia's intelligence capabilities, relative to Russia's ability to locate the intended F-16 bases, and the location of the F-16 parking areas/hangars; add the specific maintenance facilities which service the F-16s. It shouldn't be overlooked that the first class of Ukrainian F-16 pilots is about to graduate from "F-16 Grade School," leaving a serious time requirement to get up to speed in the actual combat environment. In concert, nothing has been said about the training of the required Ukrainian maintenance/support crews. In the interim, the Russians have the undeniable battlefield combat initiative; while the Ukrainian forces capabilities and manpower are not only being destroyed at an increasing rate, but the quality of the Ukrainian 'replacements' are pathetically inferior to their predecessors. Hence, in general, the Ukrainian military and political leadership are irrevocably out of time. Thus, if any number of F-16s are actually delivered, they will probably serve as Russian intelligence resources - if the so-called "West" doesn't first destroy them, before the Russians can get their hands on them. In sum, it's worth questioning whether or not any of the F-16s will ever actually get delivered. In the periphery, the pertinent "Western" promises (allusions) are left to serve the "Western" propaganda and political PR machinery. Worst case, the F-16s will serve as so many real-life airborne targets for the Russian fighters and air defense units. Hear, "Too little, seriously WAY too late.."
Where the F-16 could potentially make a huge difference is if they are provided with anti ship missiles where they could pretty much chase the Russian fleet out of the western Black sea and open up grain shipments. With a mixture of HARMs and anti ship missiles that might pose a huge threat to the Russian surface fleet, both at sea or in ports such as Sevastopol. Plus they could help take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate Crimea from being supplied by sea other than the Sea of Azov. That plus keeping the Russian aircraft at bay with AMRAAMs could be a real game changer!
Some thoughts: 1. I understood that some US / UK / EU fighter pilots were willing to support Ukraine in it's fight for democracy. This should big asset here, as the training is one bottleneck. This should apply also to maintenance. 2. If a US / UK / EU fighter pilot (or fighter mechanic) decides to go to Ukraine, it is his/her personal decision. There are no ties to any government in this decision. Furthermore, the Russia talked about consequences when HIMARS were sent, when Finland joined NATO, when leopards were sent, when sanctions were applied on banks etc. No consequences yet. 3. If the F16 is flying mostly in Ukraine controlled airspace, then who knows the nationality of the pilot. Same goes for the maintenance personnel that naturally works far from the frontier. 4. Foreign pilots could be, at least, used to secure Kiev, as it hosts diplomats from other countries.
FYI - Just returned from a visit to friends in Russia - visited a Russian Air Force Base and they have taken delivery of 21 BRAND NEW SU-57's - 20 more on delivery within the next 14 months - 32 Air Bases will be equipped with the SU-57 by 2025. Sukhoi is producing 4 aircraft per month now and they are being actively deployed in Russia's Far East bases first. What makes the distinctive sound of the SU-57 is produced by the Engine Air intake Duct design and the unique capability of an active variable bypass ratio of the turbofan. They are 3 engine options for the SU-57 and the development of all 3 is ongoing. The Radar Cross Section of the aircraft is 500 times smaller than the F-16 due to - in development Radar Absorbing Coatings being developed by Zala Aero for the Russian Air Force. The ability to out maneuver the F-16 is already proven because its a better version of the SU-33 which the Indian Air Force flew against the U.S. Air Force in 2008 and achieved a kill ratio of 11 -2 against the F-16 and the F-15. There is NO CONTEST - PERIOD!! as far as Air to Air Maneuverability is concerned. However, Pilot Training and Individual Aggression and Innovation will always be the deciding factor in any Air to Air Encounter. How does the SU-57 achieve its Superior Maneuvrability ?? In addition to the 3D Thrust Vectoring Engine Nozzles the aircraft has High Deflection Wing Leading Edge Strakes that allow rapid air flow directional changes and thus rapid changes in the centre of pressure / lift coefficient of the lifting body - thus allowing extreme directional changes along the aircraft's 3 axis'. In other words - it can temporarily go completely out of control but in a controlled manner in order to achieve maximum "Off Bore Sight" / Point & Shoot / Evasive Action. The F-22 is positively lethargic by comparison and an F-16 will be shot out of the sky forthwith - particularly in Ukraine where the Russian Military has preformed BVR Strike Capability heretofore unmatched in modern warfare. The F-16 with AMRAAM will only be effective against the SU-57 if Highly Experienced American - Israeli or NATO Pilots are in the Cockpit and operate on a "See First -Shoot First" Net Centric Combat Scenario. Otherwise, the SU-57 has the ability to shoot them out of the sky within 3 minutes of them taking off from their bases in Poland or any other of the Baltic States. How So ? The SU-57 deploys a BVR Missile known as the R-37M with a 400 km range. militarywatchmagazine.com/article/longest-ranged-aam-performs-ukraine-su57 This missile has its development origins from the Hughes AIM-54 which the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) got their hands on in 1979 when a fully equipped F-14 Tomcat was secretly transferred to Russia from the Imperial Iranian Air Force during the Islamic Revolution that saw the fall of the Shah of Iran and the installment of the Radical Islamic Cleric Ayatollah Khomeini. If you think this story is baloney - then I invite you to read this book by Viktor Suvorov - "Inside Soviet Military Intelligence" www.amazon.com/Inside-Soviet-Military-Intelligence-Suvorov/dp/0026155109 Bottom Line Folks - NATO could send 500 F-16's to Ukraine - IT WILL CHANGE NOTHING !! Why Do I Say This ?? 1. It takes 4 years of comprehensive Tactical Red Flag / Foreign Deployment Experience and Training to deliver a Competent Air Combat Pilot capable of operating in a highly contested air space & complex modern warfare scenario. 2. Ukraine does not possess the Trainable Man Power nor the Active Duty Experienced Pilot resources from which to draw the required personnel to even remotely accomplish a competently trained and active operational squadron before 2028. 3. Unless the U.S. and NATO decide to put American - Israeli and NATO Pilots in the F-16's delivered to Ukraine - The combat losses ratio will be precisely what they are now - 10 to 0 4. Russian Air Defense Systems have proven that everything from small hobby drones and aircraft to high altitude high speed missiles can be successfully intercepted and destroyed. 5. If the U.S. and NATO are Stupid Enough to even think of deploying Tactical Nukes on F-16's - Russia will Actively Target every NATO / U.S. Base in Europe - including Naval Carrier Groups in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean with a combined Nuclear Assault up to and not limited to - Major Cities and Economic Infrastructure. I am definitely NOT PRO RUSSIAN - I'm a Facts Only / Scientific Data / Experienced Veteran - We need to get our Asses Back In Line and De-escalate this ongoing Bullshit Proxy Conflict or we will be handed our Very Burnt Smoking Asses on a Platter that says - "From Russia with Love"
You crystal ball predictions are essentially assuming a dog fight between U.S. and Russian planes. In the 21st Century, there will be no dog fights, since all kills will be from several hundred miles stand off. Whomever has the best lock on sensing wins. and that's not Russia.
Excellent report. I guess that as the Ukrainian AF begin to field the Viper Squadrons, they will slowly introduce them to the fight, allowing them to provide solid CAP for the rearward cities. The F-16s with AGM-88 and 65s bring A2G options but the AIM-120 bring A2A capability and augments the various Ukrainians Air Defense systems. F-16s in the rear means more IDAS can be moved up to the front, giving the Russian Aircraft the choice of flying deep into Ukrainian Air Space with growing AntiAir capability or keeping their strike aircraft further back. I imagine the Ukrainians will also be training not only pilots and maintenance folks but Operations Instructors. Another cool thing is the Ukrainians have real world experience against the S-300/400, Su-35 and will couple that with newer tactics from Western Instructors. Im sure some the Vipers will be retained for training but a sudden influx of two or three Squadrons will have an effect.
I really like your videos, man! The Russian radar-guided AA missiles used to be controlled from the plane's radar rather than the missile. The plane also had to keep its nose pointed at the target otherwise the radar lock would be broken. Is that still true or have they gotten radar-guided fire-and-forget missiles by now?
Speed though important costs a lot of gas. And to get.max speed of mach 2+ will require a clean airframe ie: no bombs high subsonic is the best you get with any reasonable range
Good to see a balanced appraisal of the capabilities the F16 will bring rather than the "It's the best/crap" offerings from lesser contributors.
I haven't watched the video so probably covers it but I would say the best part is plug-and-play with NATO munitions.
There is a lot of an F-16 can do without getting close to the front line.
It’s one of the things I like about Alex, he keeps his commentary real, outlining both the good and bad as he has done here. I think these will be a valuable addition to Ukrainian capabilities, especially if used in the correct manner for operational support. It will mean that Russia doesn’t have the upper hand in some situations where they might currently.
Perhaps the biggest thing is that the F-16s can deploy most, if not all, of NATO's air-launched weapons. Of which there are *many* . No more jerry-rigging stuff to use NATO weapons with their Cold War-Era planes and getting only a fraction of the full capability of those weapons.
one question he didn't raise is "who's going to fix these jets?". Ukrainian technicians will face a steep learning curve with a new jet, a new language, new alphabet, and a completely different design ethos in the F-16. additionally, recruiting foreign maintainers is complicated by the fact that anyone working on Ukrainian jets in Ukraine will be considered combatants and will be subject to Russian attempts to target and kill them.
@@michaelnewell9662 Ukrainian people are generally very good at speaking and reading English, I’ve worked with quite a number of them. There’s also the potential for them to be sent over the border into Poland for maintenance similar to what is happening with some of the tanks in use by Ukraine. Maintenance of the aircraft is also done very far from the front lines, the likelihood of capture by Russia is incredibly low, whether it’s foreign mechanics or Ukrainian.
I asked a former career USAF F-16 pilot friend, a retired Lt. Colonel with over 10,000 hours in the Viper if having the Viper will bring the Ukrainians an advantage and he thinks they will-with high quality training and practice. In some ways he said the airplane is easy to fly and in other ways complicated to employ. Hopefully the first training group are experienced pilots that will make the transition much easier
I came to say just this... but listening Alex... they don't get Vipers... but what they get can be upgraded to Vipers, the point is, are they?... A Viper upgrade would be awesome, but how long would it take to be approved?... it's a stupid thing all around and after the war, there will be a lot of talk about ''delays'' and 'reasons''...
Anyway, Ukraine learn a lesson... never give up your weapons again, and make sure you can offer protection... not ask for...!
The F16s are going to shot down way before they can get airborne either by drones or hypersonics.
After seeing analysts comment on how UA forces deployed Leopards and Bradleys in Zaporizhzhia offensive, I think the shortened crew / pilot training and lack of systematic approach and integration will lead to less than expected performance.
If F-16s were to be confirmed back in August last year, and training started around that time, with a more complete "system" delivery, I think it could have made a huge difference.
@@nctrns ''anal-ysts'' predicted that Ukraine would fall in a few days!... when the Ukis deployed the Western Armor in Zapo and got kicked they were simply fighting the ''Western way'' but without air support!... so they pulled back and now they innovate ways to fight every day... wanna play the blame-game?../ blame those who are holding Ukraine back!.// blame those who want ruZZia to ''pull out''... blame those who don't want ruZZia to be invaded... blame those who NED ruZZia, so THEY can exist too...
anything they didnt have before will be an advantage. expert opinion or not
No matter what kind of plane you have - it's maintenance and aircrew proficency that determines how effective it is.
That might be the most important piece of the puzzle. If an airplane is broke, it's not doing anyone any good. Safe to assume we and our NATO allies are working hard to make that a reality with Ukrainian maintainers. It's the biggest hurdle in my mind.
@@steveofthewildnorth7493 how exactly is that gonna happen? you have 30-40% of aircraft down for maintenance at any given time, and that's during peacetime in the united states with the best and brightest crews with half a century of experience operating the thing, and with the best infrastructure and logistics in the world and a budget of a trillion dollars per year and the full weight of the united states department of defense behind them, and with the manufacturer being a domestic company right around the corner when specialized expertise is needed, and with a whole big ass aircraft boneyard in arizona that is available for parts when needed. and guys still need to pull off miracles to get the planes back in the sky, and cannibalize some to put others back into working condition. what are those numbers gonna be like in ukraine with their shitty runways filled with patched up cruise missile potholes and everything? like 50 or 60% of the aircraft down for maintenance at any given time? especially since we're talking about second hand fifty year old aircraft here..
i don't even know how the heck anyone expects this whole thing to be set up in the poorest and most corrupt country on the continent while they are being invaded by retarded russian cavemen and their facilities are taking hits from apartment-seeking and kindergarten-seeking and church-seeking old soviet junk cruise missiles? not like there is a little IKEA manual for how to set up the whole network of infrastructure and logistics and maintenance needed to operate fourth generation aircraft. it would take a whole army of consultants and contractors from lockheed and dozens of other companies that would have to go there on the ground and spend years there to show them how to do things and put everything together for them. while once again dodging russian cruise missiles and risking their lives.
i honestly doubt that it will happen. it would take probably like a decade. this whole thing of ukrainians and their poorly-trained soviet-minded military suddenly getting western tanks and western fourth generation aircraft seems more like a distraction and propaganda thing than anything else. more of a "hey looky here, genius ukrainian super-pilots learned to operate fourth generation western aircraft in a few months unlike those dummies in the west that need 3-5 years! aren't we great? we're basically up to western standards now, so you should let us join NATO and send your kids to die in ukraine and risk starting a nuclear war!" kind of thing..
remember how they said "oh yeah, 4 months tops, big game-changing western aircraft in ukraine by september for sure" back in may when they first announced this? well now we're in september and they can't even find more than six guys that would even fit the criteria needed for the job, and they don't speak a word of english, so turns out that they would need 4 months of training just in terms of english classes to learn the aircraft-related nomenclature. this means that they're not even gonna start the written and classroom portion of the training let alone step foot anywhere near the aircraft before sometime early next year. and even then.. what, they are gonna learn the 3-5 years worth of training that is needed to master this aircraft in a few months by talking with some little pilots from the netherlands that probably have like zero combat experience and that barely get like an hour or two of flight time per month, with their little fleet of like two squadrons of goddamn fifty year old second hand aircraft? with ukrainians that will still barely understand a word of what the guys are telling them, and with the netherlands pilots speaking with a heavy netherlands accent..
it just seems ridiculous. it's gonna be like 2026 or 2027 before they get even just what was promised so far, and even then those pilots are gonna be limited because the training will still have been rushed. they're even talking about recycling already-existing ukrainian pilots to make the process faster, but that will only lead to lower quality pilots once again because those guys in the netherlands will have to attempt to pull off miracles to get those ukrainian pilots to forget their soviet communist training and doctrine that they learned when they were taught on those old rusty soviet flying garbage cans that they currently operate. and that kind of stuff sounds nice in training and everything, but like always once they actually go into combat and have russian cavemen firing and vodka air defenses firing missiles at them, they are gonna panic and get overwhelmed and revert back to their old soviet instincts. just like their ground forces are doing now. talked about big combined arms western maneuver style warfare and big concentrated attacks to break through the caveman lines and big lightning fast advance to the sea bypassing the defenses and surrounding the cities to force the reds to give up the whole south and "maybe even crimea by the end of the summer, war over by the end of the year for sure".. and then their clueless incompetent soviet-minded commanders sent our donated stuff right into minefields in broad daylight pulling a page right out of the retarded soviet communist russian playbook losing a huge chunk of their western hardware on the very first day without achieving anything and instead setting the tone for what would become a huge shitshow of an offensive. and now they are panicking because they're about to come up on a whole year with zero progress and they know that they need to show something after 100 billion dollars and a an entire summer of fighting for a couple of unknown villages, so they are freaking out and reverting back to what feels the most cozy and what they are the most comfortable with and what they know best.. good old soviet retardation and trench warfare human wave attack style war of attrition tactics. their big new genius plan is to attempt to outlast and out-dumb and out-russia the russians at their own game and hope that they run out of ammunition and cannon fodder before they themselves run out of ammunition and cannon fodder to throw at the russian lines. just mindless uncoordinated attacks across the entire front with absolutely zero larger goal other than just grabbing whatever chunk of empty field or shitty unknown village that nobody cares about in a desperate attempt to get any gains on the map and have something to show next month when funding runs out hoping that congress will give them another shot and vote to renew the funding..
that's the danger of sending in untrained people that have no idea what they are doing. it doesn't matter what the equipment is. you could have a goddamn flying saucer from area 51, but if you use it like your usual old rusty soviet flying garbage can, it's gonna be a flying garbage can and only be able to get you flying garbage can style achievements and successes.
this is why pentagon officials said for over a year that ukraine doesn't need western tanks and aircraft at this stage and can't afford them or maintain them or operate them with any degree of effectiveness given their soviet-minded poorly-trained military that lacks the proper infrastructure and logistics and maintenance to keep these things running. but of course, as always, some genius civilians in the white house and state department decided to get involved and ignore their generals and squeeze them by the balls and force them to humiliate themselves by going back on what they had been saying for a year and suddenly "oh yeah, 4 months of training, perfect, game-changing fourth generation aircraft in ukraine real soon" like something that you would expect straight out of the propaganda department in kiev.
it's sad because if we were serious about helping ukraine, the generals and our leaders would ignore zelensky and his propaganda and theatrics and just continue to provide what everyone knows the ukrainians need.. things that actually make a difference on the battlefield but that might not be as fancy. meaning insane amounts of artillery shells, ammunition for the high mobility rocket artillery system, more man-portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles like javelins and TOWs and stingers, precision-guided munitions that are simple to use like excalibur rounds and those british cruise missiles, the more fancy versions of JDAMs like the extended range or laser-guided ones for the rare times when the ukrainian air force is able to launch them given that they usually have to hug the trees and fly underneath power lines which doesn't work for something that glides, more MRAPs and maybe even other "medium" complexity stuff like bradleys since they are plentiful and save lives, those ground-launched small diameter bombs that are fired from the same pods as the high mobility rocket artillery systems, tons of little suicide drones, interceptors for air defense systems, and i guess as much of the modern western air defense systems that can be spared after their guys get the actual proper training order to replace their old soviet junk that is running out of interceptors, and beyond that maybe some things like jammers and counter-battery radars and things of that nature that perhaps they might be able to learn to use over the longer term. most of this stuff isn't fancy or shiny except maybe the patriot air defense systems, but these are what make a difference on the battlefield. this is what changes the course of the war if you can sustain them and provide enough over a long enough period of time until the reds and their worthless monopoly currency goes into toilet paper status and their economy turns into a full-blown stone age vodka breadline economy and they are forced to pull out due to being unable to continue to sustain the 72 hour special goodwill gesture operation.
That is important, but a good pilot won't increase your missile or radar range.
@@issadraco532 Learn to edit, man.
@@issadraco532 Interesting that you seem to assume that such limitations only apply to Ukraine, and not Russia, which currently has aircraft falling out of the sky across the nation for no apparent reason at all.
RIP to callsign JUICE who is mentioned in this video.
Confirmed he passed away today in a mid air collision with another mig29.
Glory to the heroes and LONG LIVE UKRAINE 🇺🇦
I just saw that news now. RIP Juice
I guess the Juice was squeezed from him. Hahaha😂😂😂🎉🎉🎉
@@sjsisdhdjdkssosjdhxnx looks like you’re just bitter he made something of himself and you never have.
Cope smarter. Not harder Putler bot boi 👍
Wasn't a mig 29 was a trainer aircraft
@@Dan-lg2by yes, we know this a couple days later
I like how you put it to be honest, I was curious which blocks they were getting because it does mean a big ass difference, so good job on letting us know about their missiles and how ours work exactly now and when they get the F-16s. Plus how you explained the 3 modes on the harm system, that'll help them for sure now, plus they'll put the amraam to good use plus the harm, I'm sure once the word is out they'll definitely send out their newest to shoot some down, which sucks but it'll be inevitable that they definitely try, if they succeed I hope the next pilots know exactly where to exact the revenge with harm then a jasm
I hope there was at least somewhere in the fine print that peoples "aid for ukraine" will be used as revenge.
how bout rebuilding instead of sending million dollar fireworks into innocent peoples homes? just a thought.
Ukraine does not have the "cleanest" sleight when it comes to "post invasion behavior"
Sandbox honest? 😂 Are you American?
@@GegeDxDAnd proud of it 🤌
A bit out of context but I remember being at Farnborough Air Show in the late 80s. The MIG29 was there as well as the F16. Both pilots pushed their planes to the limit. It was more than impressive from both. A treasured memory.
Which was more impressive in your eyes at the time? I’d assume you would have an American bias. But the mig-29 on paper seems like a bad ass plane.
@@forfun6273honestly if the Mig29 kept getting upgrades like the F16 did it would probably be the better fighter , but currently the F16 has much better avionics and radar systems which makes the Mig 29 better handling obsolete in head to head
@@Wahba. At the time the MiG-29 had some impressive features. It could go very fast, even at low altitude and had a high TWR. I think it had an early type of helmet-mounted sight which could be used to lock enemy aircraft and the R-73 IR missiles it carried were much more capable than Western missiles of that era, being able to engage targets at much larger angles off the axis of the seeker as well as being more manoeuvrable. After German reunification, Western experts were able to examine a number of East German MiG-29s along with their weapons and it came as quite a shock that the R-73 was so good. This revelation led in part to a new generation of Western IR missiles with new technologies such as imaging seeker heads and dramatically improved performance.
@@trolleriffic isn't the Mig-35 an upgraded version of the Mig-29 or am I way off ? they look very similar
@@trollerifficTWR?
Alex with a very respectable voice in the aviation community.
I love Alex's honest opinion and this is why I love Sandboxx
Respectable lol. He’s walking encyclopedia of ignorance.
@@patrickbec68please clarify your opinion-I would like to know what data you used to make that statement.
@@patrickbec68lmao he said Russia can’t develop air superiority, he fails to mention how different countries have different tasks/ equipments they consider better than the other. It’s like me saying the USA can’t develop advanced air defense system and powerful artillery because they’re superior.
@@cahg3871 see my comment elsewhere.
It's basically 50+ of block 52 F16s being sent over. It'll allow the full use of AGM88s, enables use OF AIM120-D and AIM9-M, and probably could be used to launch SCALP EG as well. Also opens the door for JASSM.
It's going to double the Ukrainian Air Force fleet of combat jet.
The Dutch planes were top of the list equipped with Block 52 upgrades, and their ready state was at 80+ % at all times due to the massive amount of parts and equipment kept by the 312, 313, and 315 squadrons, and trained in the US maintenance teams, read my comment :)
I particularly like you pointing on the gap between official numbers and actual capabilities. It's a thing missing from many analyses about Russia.
Because it's a wild ass guess.
RIP Juice, the Ukrainian pilot mentioned here was confirmed deceased today. Sounds like a crash, not a KIA situation, but they're investigating it. He was one of their premier pilots.
I just saw that earlier today. Kind of stunned since watching this story. Ukraine needs every truly capable pilot like Juice they can get. This a real tragedy for his family and country. But, adversity only makes Ukraine stronger. God bless all the brave people of Ukraine. They will prevail.
Lol
Ми повертаємося до життя
I think the Ukrainians will do alright with them. We've seen that they are extremely motivated to learn and to be totally honest that might be the greatest power there is. They will make mistakes and just like the Leo2 and Bradleys, the F-16 will not be a silver bullet. However, like the Leo2 and Bradleys, I suspect there will be a lot of grateful Ukrainian soldiers and families for our hardware getting them back alive where they otherwise would not.
totally agree! thank you from Ukraine
F16 will definitely change the war to me due to the fact that Ukraine barely has aircraft they just need to ace these training
The F-16 will only lead to a longer war, more soldiers will die, and their families will be unhappy and poor, no one will be grateful for the f-16, because they are inferior in all respects to Russian aircraft.
I think they been frustrated how slow it been to get heavier weapons with all the excuses
Yeah true and they’ve only lost like 5 Leo 2s so there very good at using these weapons it’s just the western politicians are like hmm how about an excuse as an American it pisses me off
I still maintain the biggest thing about getting a Western aircraft is access to Western munitions. AIM-120s, the full capability of the HARM, the list goes on. More ease of integrating other European weapons systems like the Meteor. Lots and lots of options, and that's what the Viper is for Ukraine. Access to a whole lot of options.
Netherlands and Denmark stepping up. Well done.
Norway too now.
They know those planes only exist to stop Russian aggression
Unfortunately, they forgot to add a clause saying, that Mette comes with the planes....
@@IrishCaesar🤡🤡
That would be a clear escalation as female politicians are a weapon of mass destruction.
Practice makes perfect. That's been standard military doctrine for thousands of years. Thanks for a really good update on a subject that most of us are struggling to understand.
With 42 F16s The Netherlands truly is one of the biggest contributors to the material for Ukraine!
not all of them fly, many are hangar queens used for parts
Russia shot down a Boeing 777 full of Dutch civilians. The Dutch have not forgotten. Nor have they forgiven. They have been waiting for payback. Time has come.
@@z_actual Still a huge dollar outlay for a nation the size of The Netherlands. Even if it is sunk cost since that's money spent long ago and they're replacing them with F-35's anyway.
@@steveofthewildnorth7493 yes it is, it is also characteristic of the rest of Europe as regards NATO. The state of this equipment has been allowed to run down in an uneven manner, and Ukraine will need considerable help to assess the health of and subsequent safety of these airframes, and prepare them for combat use.
In return Kiev provides Amsterdam's red light district with new young girls free of charge 😂😂😂
The main variant going to UA is the F16AM(MLU). The most critical capabilities it brings are NATO standard data links, allowing GBAD & NATO AWACS to guide or target missiles or aircraft interchangeably. I'd say this is indisputably an advantage UA will receive, regardless what they do short of kamikazing lol
so NATO is joining the war? or Ukraine getting AWACS too?
"an advantage"
Do you even understand the fact that Russian datalinks are considerably more effective than the Nato-standard?
Or the fact that even the Ukraine's old MiG-29s already had datalinks, although the Soviet standard model rather than the drastically improved Russian version which is based on the much better datalink that was developed for the MiG-31.
"NATO AWACS to guide or target missiles or aircraft interchangeably"
Uh-huh... And the fact that doing so would be a direct declaration of war by Nato against Russia and make those AWACS instantly legal targets for Russia, you ignore that how exactly?
@DIREWOLFx75 ur so clearly a Russian stooge, I'm not even gonna engage with u. Have a good day lol. *#Copium*
@@DIREWOLFx75LOL okay Russian bot
@@dude3278 Neither Rrussian nor a bot.
Okay, mr IQ equal to shoesize?
one of the things that weren't mentioned is the HARM pod combined with the sniper or litening targeting pod, now I am not sure if Ukraine will get access to these pods, but the HARM pod can locate enemy radar sites with precision making it easy to find the precise location with a targeting pod and then relay this location to strike craft to attack it or even just use artillery fire instead
I have no doubt the US/NATO will provide both Lantirn & Litening Pods. USAF/NATO has been switching to more modern Sniper ATPs for a long time now.
I think it's likely they will get these pods from the nations that are going to supply the F-16's. After all they are transitioning to F-35, which has those capabilities integrated, so they won't need them anymore. Same with the weapons for that matter. The Amraams and Sidewinders Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway use are for external carriage, not the models for internal carriage as would be needed on F-35.
What I am wondering is if the F-16 Ukraine will get will get a coat of Have Glass V. We know the Danish are applying them to their own F-16's, but I wonder if the Dutch and Norwegian jets will get it as well. That would be a serious advantage imo.
Is the meteor/F16 integration program still running? That would be a nice touch.
@@glibsonoranim not sure if the blocks of f16 likely to be given would have the radar range to make meteors more useful than amraams
@@Typexviiib Meteor, at least by published stats, has twice the "No Escape Zone" range of AMRAAMS (60Km vs 30Km). Not surprising since it is a later design, Both are well within F16's radar range, and this may prove the more important statistic vs maximum range.
The SU25 has a RWR, it's less detailed but still, it gives the pilot sufficient info to dodge Radar guided missiles both from Air and Ground radar guided threats. What the SU25 pilot meant is that he does not have an IR guided missiles launch warning for heat seekers, that is also the case with the Viper.
It sounds like the Ukrainian Su25s lack them compared to Russia’s more advanced version. Their RWRs are pretty basic though; it just has lights that light up in whichever direction the threat is coming from and a general indicator of distance. They don’t have screens like NATO planes.
I don’t think the Ukrainians Su have it. I seen some vids and I can’t spot it where it normally is.
@keirfarnum6811 they don't have screen, but are in some ways superior to western. They give signal strength info, meaning info what threat is closer.
@@milanprica7513 якщо ви бачите, як москаль рот ворушить своєю дупою - це заздрить
@@milanprica7513Not really true. Even the F14 could semi accurately track active radar missiles and have it displayed on its RWR screen showing relative distance.
I have heard that Norway have also added their name to the list of countries preparing to supply Ukraine F-16's. This news will add another 12 F-16's to the current list of aircraft which will bring the proposed number of Ukrainian F-16's squadrons up to 6.
They will probably get the airplanes in batches, a few at first and than more later. But more importantly, I heard somewhere that currently only 8 ukrainian pilots are trained on the f16. So more pilots will need to be trained after this batch as well.
@@Teutonic_Nobility Lol they already got advanced missiles for these aircrafts before getting the aircrafts themselves. Just look at HARM missiles for a start. JDAM as well etc.
@@Teutonic_Nobility Lol they will not be destroyed. From the 150 leopards only 9 got destroyed so far in 12 weeks of assaults with them. Also all Russia's missiles send to Kiev are being consistently shot down. Russia will not be easily able to destroy any f16's. Ofcourse in prolonged warfare some of them will be lost eventually but it will all be worth.
Also Ukraine would not get modern artillery, tanks, long range weapons and fighter jets either. They already have the HARM Missiles along with some other missiles. It is only a matter of time till they will get the other missiles.
@@Teutonic_NobilityI mean that can be said for anything ? It’s war shit will be destroyed so what? Also that says that those air bases won’t be defend by air defense, can air defenses fail , of course anything can fail but I don’t think they will all be destroyed just out of now where, second I’ve seen more of a talking point to use them to shoot down missiles and stuff more then dog fighting which could help move around air defenses and or take pressure off, personally I think the option of using as a sort of “air defense” against drones and missiles is better !
I mean it is claimed that those hyper sonic have been shot down with patriot so idk about no defense, and I mean Ukraine will probably get like 30-60ish planes maybe ? so decent number and this might not be the last time F-16s are donated idk if you really thought about that, also its been 18 months at war attrition
has not been looking great @@Teutonic_Nobility
9:49 no variant of the R-73 that is mounted on aircraft is radar guided.
Data link is what enables the FULL function of HAARM & other western munitions. Currently, for ex. JDAM & Stormshadow must be programmed on the ground, leaving ALL the flexibility these weapons provide on the table. But now, with F16AM they can be redirected & programmed in fight & even after fired.
I really appreciate your no BS to-the-point approach. Keep up the good work.
Never heard of this channel before, but this was a damn good middle ground video. We need more of that realistic reporting. Subbed.
Juice, Rest in Peace brother...
During the Gulf War of 1991, Wild Weasel missions were done by the F4-G Wild Weasel V. Currently, it is the F-16CJ/DJ but for deep strike missions, the F-15E Strike Eagle is used as it is still the fastest thing in the air, today.
Not really any faster, but have of gas increases range
@@ndenise3460 The F-15s are still the fastest thing in the air for combat missions.
These might be fighters which are currently being put out of service by us - however - up till recently the Danish air force have been given a lot of praise for their effectiveness in NATO operations. They seem to be very well kept fighters and they have flown A LOT of missions with very few hickups. Since 1980 we have bought 77 F16s - of which 10 have been lost. This includes everything from combat to training.
A direct translation of some facts about the Danish F16 service:
"Here you can read more about the Air Force's combat aircraft F-16 Fighting Falcon:
* The air force's F-16 aircraft are of the Fighting Falcon type and can both fight against other aircraft in the air and carry out precise bombing of targets on the ground.
* Denmark decided in 1975 to buy 58 F-16 aircraft. The first arrived in Denmark in 1980, after which the planes gradually replaced the Air Force's other planes.
* Today, Denmark has 40 F-16 aircraft, of which 30 are still in use.
* The planes are armed with a 20 millimeter machine gun and also have stations for bombs, rockets and missiles.
* The Danish F-16 aircraft have been used in several international operations in the Balkans, in Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.
* F-16 fighter jets are on duty around the clock to repel unwanted aircraft in Danish airspace or assist aircraft in trouble.
* Denmark has decided that the F-16 aircraft must be replaced by the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.
* The last Danish F-16 aircraft are expected to be retired in Denmark in 2027.
* The first four Danish F-35 aircraft arrive on 1 October. In total, Denmark has purchased 27 F-35 aircraft.
"
So in essence let's make this ABUNDANTLY CLEAR!: These F16s ARE STILL in service and are daily helping keeping the Russian air force at bay when they make incursions into Scandinavian airspace as part of the "Nordic Air Force" - a force of aprox. 250 F-35, F-16, F-18, and JAS39C/D/E. They are not relics from a museum - nor are they lesser than almost any other aircraft currently serving in NATO. Furthermore the pilots and crews are being trained by our pilots and crews - who knows these fighters inside and out. There is a HUGE advantage to this being the F16 - since our expertise of using these machines of war in actual modern combat is second to non - even the Americans. We were there right next to you - fighting in the same wars and earning recognition from the rest of NATO.
What's my point here? My point is this: You keep saying "IF". "IF" the Ukrainians can this or that... I think that's a mute point m8! These pilots and crews are gonna be trained by the best in the world. They WILL make a huge difference - and they WILL use them to their fullest extent as long as they can! And yes you are 100% correct that they will lose some of our F16s in this fight! There is NO getting around that... But can you seriously think of a better sendoff for these magnificent fighters than fighting for the freedom of a sovereign nation which is under attack by overwhelming odds? 1 to 2 SU-27? Hell! Let's make it 1 to 10! Let's make a bet and see who comes closest!
Slava Ukraini!
🇩🇰 VIKING POWER 🇩🇰
What do you think about the retired US pilots that said they would fly for Ukraine, that could change things...... Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
Very good, informative and educative video👍 Nothing like uneducated guys speaking of that all the F-16s and Netherlands, Denmarks or Belgium F-16s are the same F-16 blocks and same capabilities or they are new airframes.
Very good work.
Maybe u can also mention about these F-16s expected air-ground use.
You know everybody expect they will be very useful to summer offensive and break the defensive lines.
So after Suppressin of Air defenses, they are expected to destroy the defensive lines of trenches, mines, artilleries with weapons like LGBs, Jdams or other weapons staying out of range of shorads.
Could u do a video about this, but as good as this one😊😎?
My best guess is that Ukraine is largely going to use F-16's for SEAD, and ground attack. I seriously doubt they are going to try to get into air dominance fights with Russia if they can avoid it. As mentioned, Russia still has a significant number of jets and anti-air weaponry. So, I think a Ukraine will mostly be setting up sorties where two or three F-16's perform SEAD missions while several more make ground attacks to either blunt a Russian attack, or to disrupt the Russian lines in a small area to allow ground forces to advance. So basically, get in the air and run like hell to a spot on the front lines, keep the ground-based AA quiet, drop some bombs, and leave before Russian jets can intercept. I expect to some missions to intercept Russian missile raids as well, but in general I think most of what the F-16's will be doing is ground attack.
I do NOT expect to see F-16's patrolling the skies over Ukraine, waiting for calls for CAS or to chase off incoming Russian KA-52's or SU-24's, or anything like that. I do not expect to see them crossing the border to hunt down Russian jets that get close to launch cruise and ballistic missiles. I do not expect to see them flying out over the Black sea and sinking Russian warships. I do not expect to see them fly down to the Kerch bridge and blow more holes in it. While these are all things the F-16 would certainly be capable of, I think the realities of still being outnumbered and possibly outgunned in the air will make them unlikely. For now, the F-16 is probably a way to attack Russian positions on the front lines that will be way more effective than what the SU-24's can manage right now.
For me, the biggest question for me is whether or not Russia will be forced to go after the F-16's in the air and start putting their own aircraft at serious risk again, or if they will continue to stay away from Ukrainian SAMs and hope they can attack the F-16's on the ground rather than in air-to-air combat. I'm really not sure if Russia is more concerned about potentially losing more jets, or seeing their defensive lines broken by aerial bombing. Either way, I think the F-16's are going to make a real difference, but not turn the whole tide of the war.
Spot on, however that still might be very hard for the Ukrainians to do. Russia has been using MiG-31s to fire long range missiles within the safety of their borders to kill Ukrainian aircraft. These long range intercepts could easily kill F-16s if they stick around for too long.
Sure, but you need top cover, too. Basically, you need a total package for temporary local superiority. Maybe someone knows how many aircraft it will take to fulfill these roles at the same time.
The Kerch rail bridge is a vital target. So is the road bridge. After some preparatory taxing of Russian AD over days, I can see Ukraine putting a large package of drones, SEAD F16s and F16s with 1000lb bombs together to making a sacrificial (if necessary) attack on the bridge. Russia would have to use the land bridge rail systems more, which the UAF is getting closer to almost daily. Shut down heavy freight to Kherson oblast and Crimea and the Russian military there starts to decay.
@@timtrewyn453Don't forget the Storm Shadow that already has the bridge under threat. Ukraine already knows the RF supply lines and has destroyed the intermediate bridges and depots with Artillery and rockets to put them under critical stress. So very effective with what they already have.
Likewise the drone deep fires on remote bases has both reduced reserve replacement and shown that the war is in ruzzia.
Yes. Take down enemy radar so they can launch cruise missiles at empty C&C, ammo, etc. also enables them to intercept R aircraft on attacks as they will have less AA defense of their own to fly over
Pilot training programs aren't going away after the first class graduates . There are thousands of F-16s.Implementation of F-16s while time consuming is sustainable in significant numbers .
At 16:50 you mention a Ukrainian pilot with the call sign Juice. Unfortunately today it was announced by the Ukrainian MoD that Juice and two other pilots died as a consequence of a collision of two Ukrainian training jets.🙏
Good work Alex🖤🏴☠️ thank you for your service.💙👀
Wow, so notching is actually a tactic against modern missile systems. It's a thing in DCS, and I've always been left wondering if that's something that they built up into something more effective than in real life in order to add additional dynamics to BVR fights..
And considering Russia is using a lot of legacy SAMs. Not sure if notching can work well against an S300, tho.
@@JimCarner Modern radars probably make notching ineffective. Whether that applies to the S-300 I have no idea, but you couldn't notch an F-35.
Alex, I always love your videos and coverage of the situation.
Great video Alex. It’s an important perspective as some people think that Ukraine getting F-16’s will win the war on their own. Thanks for producing.
Excellent analysis reinforced by the various quotes from experts. Nice job!
nice work on the a/a match up and how the wiring and computers inside will allow for more efficient use of missiles against aircraft and radars. one or two other items to consider--greater availability of weapons that can be supplied (not having to find old soviet stockpiles) from nato/west stores and the more effective use against ground targets due to on board f16 systems (thinking even a few gbu's & tpods might attrit some Russian depots or make combat supply lines more tenuous.
It will also have a major effect on the Black Sea. Some of them can carry the Harpoon. The HARM and the Harpoon can make a good 1-2 punch when it comes to ships. If they also get the JASSAM then they really have a way to make the Russians' life hard. Will some get shot down? Probably. The F-16s in Ukraine will be fighting without AWACs or Rivit Joint support. That will make a big difference in how well they can work. It will be interesting if the APG68s they get have been updated to the V10 mode. That is the current version, in US service. They are being replaced by the SABRE system right now so a few of them might be sitting around that could be used for updating the planes Ukraine gets.
I love Alex’s reporting and analysis.
That is absolutely incredible!!! Absolutely amazing job from the cabin crew, pilots, not to mention the crew on the other plane for the work they had already done. Incredibly sad for the families that lost someone but it could have been so much worse! And a huge well done to the engineers to the plane.
Ukraine is not fighting for independence. Ukraine is independent.
Ukraine is fighting to protect its borders.
Nope! America OWNS Ukraine! It’s a puppet state just look at the money trail…they’re not independent at all.
Ukraine is fighting to repel invaders.
gotta squash those cockroaches
I caught this immediately, [it's at 0:40]. Ukraine declared its INDEPENDENCE in 1991. The United States declared its independence in 1776, but did not achieve that statues until 1783. that is due the difference in fighting an extant Power [Great Britian] and a power imploding and ceding its domination over a state. . . Ukraine had it relatively easy until 2014.
@@Cryosxify Factual inaccuracies are not a mere nuisance. In fact, in this case, it is pro-Russian.
Great thought-out video, as usual.
You're right in that a lot of this will come down to the training of the pilots. Which is why, imo anyways, America has now agreed to help train them. We don't want to see our Vipers shot down any more than they do. I don't think they'll have any trouble avoiding the Mig-31 "hypersonic" missiles due to the RWR in the F-16 making it super easy to notch them. Overcoming a notch requires very advanced seeker tech that even our missiles aren't reliably capable of, and that "hypersonic," fat, telephone pole the Mig-31 is firing can't turn for squat. Plus, the longer the range, the easier it is to notch something. That missile, and the antique Mig-31 it's riding on, are more for shooting down AWACS, tankers or B-52s and B-1s. I also don't think the Su-35's thrust vectoring will even be a factor in this fight. This is going to primarily a BVR fight where both aircraft dance around the MAR and lob missiles at each other till they run out and decide to go home to get more. Both sides can't afford to get into the 50/50 chance, kill or be killed scenario that is a 'merge' because they don't have a way to replace the aircraft quickly, or at all, in some cases.
That being said, if a merge DID happen, it would come down to the training of the pilots. The Su-35 is a deadly plane during the first few seconds of a merge IF it sticks to a single turn, meaning nose-to-nose, dogfight due to its thrust vectoring and high off-bore sight Archers. But that only lasts for a short time because that type of fight with thrust vectoring in a plane as big as the Su-35 bleeds off energy extremely quickly. The Su-35's got about 2, maybe 3 turns to score a hit. After that, the aircraft usually has lost too much energy and can't maintain the 1 circle fight. At which point the Su-35 starts to feel like a bus, compared to the F-16 that continues to feel like a Porsche. That doesn't mean it's still not deadly and can't still win. But, if the F-16 sticks to trying to push the two-circle fight, and doesn't take the bait and try to go nose-to-nose, the F-16 will win the dogfight almost every time. If the F-16 can keep to its type of fight, a "rate" fight, it can win a merge with any other fighter in use today EXCEPT the F-22. Of course, this is based solely on data analysis and simulations on my part, though I do know the US Navy has participated in training dogfights against the Su-35 in F/A-18s where they reported they were victorious in about 60% of the scenarios. Unfortunately, I have no data from similar practices done by F-16s against the same plane. And remember, this is just my estimation based on the data we do have from simulations, and the official information Russia has revealed... which we now know a lot of which is complete bulls***.
The biggest game changer the F-16 brings to Ukrainian pilots, though, is the RWR. Which again, you were absolutely right about. That will turn this completely one-sided air fight into a nearly even one. You can't have a BVR fight with an enemy that has a radar that is 2-3 times more powerful than yours, and likewise much longer range missiles. The RWR will save so many pilot's lives, and actually give them a fighting chance in the BVR fight that Ukraine is already trying to fight with both hands tied behind their back and blindfolded. Now they'll at least be able to see the punches coming, and even throw back some of their own. Also, I know from my own personal experience, and from what we have observed so far, Ukrainians are VERY quick studies when motivated, and will likely excel at adapting to the F-16 just like everything else they've been given.
you only consider fighter against fighter. ukraine has a much bigger problem against russian helicopters. they have recently upgraded to a new missile with 30 km range to use against ukrainian armor. the F-16's will be able to take those on easily .
I think there’s barely been any kills from WVR combat during this entire war. They stopped doing WVR after the first few months and settled for this game of cat and mouse. A dogfight is never going to happen unless Russia wants some propaganda or something.
Sincerely appreciate your analysis.
Your show is always interesting and informative. I respect the fact that you do not get into politics and are fairly open minded and neutral. Please give it me straight and be objective ❤
My greatest worry is not the performance of the F-16 but the logistics which is required. Besides requiring pristine airstrips (which the Ukrainians don't have yet), the F-16 is apparently very needy in terms of maintenance, requiring technicians who undergo years of training.
You could teach the basic stuff, like changing oil and maintaining. You don't need to go to school to change tires, or change a seat in your car. However as it get complicated you will bring it to professional
@@andrerothweiler9191 maintaining a plane is way more complicated than maintaining a car. An F-16 requires 17 hours of maintenance per hour of flight. Some operations require a hazmat suit. And schlepping the planes to Poland after each sortie might be tricky.
@@andrerothweiler9191the F-16 uses hydrazine for its APU. Google those terms. That’s why the other talks about a hazmat suit - he is completely correct.
@@ecdhe well there are lots of F16. So yeah
@@JimCarner all jets hate debris that could be sucked in the reactor at takeoff. A single bolt may mess things up. Soviet/Russian doctrine is to add mechanisms to their planes to avoid this. Western doctrine is to use a small army of people who walk down the runway shoulder-to-shoulder looking for any debris. Furthermore, the fact that the F-16 air intake is below the plane (so really close to the ground) makes it even more prone to suck any debris.
It is possible that Ukraine may have a couple of suitable runways. But then they may be a prime Russian target.
Now, they're getting the M-1. I was an M-1 turret mechanic in the mid-late 80's. Let that sink in.
Another great video Alex. Thanks for all your hard work. I have a question wouldn't the A-10, F-16 be a good combination for Ukraine's push next year? They should have two teams training on both aircraft. I am sure there are enough english speaking translators to help the new people adjust while they train. I want US to increase the behind the scenes efforts and training.
Eh, they’re already a pain for their original owners to repair, and they can only really safely operate with strong air cover. I don’t see much point.
I cant see a10s surviving very long with all the manpads
@@Appletank8 The F-16's are the air cover. If you watch one of Alex's previous videos on how the A-10 can be used as a flying weapons platform behind the front. It is not for dog fighting and they are tough as hell. Russian manpads are in short supply.
@@Typexviiib They survived Iran and Iraq. They are not invincible but do a lot of damage on the field of battle. Besides Russian manpads are in short supply. They seem to have a chip supply problem.
@@jerrywatson1958 The amount of maintenance needed to keep A-10s flying gives off the impression that their toughness is now heavily coated in rust. Why are you tasking an A-10 to do what the F-16 can already do, and simplify logistics?
Western trainers of Ukranian forces have been very suprised how fast the Ukranians learn. That's the difference motivation does.
I proactivly withheld 15 seconds of that tone of narration. Goodness gracious.
Can you give a HARM steering points? You can set the altitude for each waypoint that way with SLAM-ER missiles. Set them to like 60-70ft and SAM systems won''t see them coming. There's an easier to find low/mid/high selector for alt, but it doesn't go low enough to avoid the S-300. You use a datalink to manually steer that one last min so it's probably better for static targets. 1000lb warhead though. Like a storm shadow then. Big boom. The SAM's blow up every time using those in the simulator. They never get shot down that way. I don't think you can use them as effectively on moving targets as the harms though. I'm just screwing around in the simulators. They might be more advanced than I know.
Thanks Alex, the info and commentary is always informative and thought provoking. Hit the Like Button folks, it will help more folks to find this excellent resource.
The yellow tint on some canopies is a thin layer of gold to cut down on the UV hit in the pilots.
Nice work Alex. You kept me all the way through.
Correct me if I'm wrong. Isn't the Viper and all-weather/anytime attack aircraft while the 29 is not? Oh yeah, the 29 doesn't really do ground attack either. Boy! Do those Ukranian pilots have a lot to learn!! However, I do agree with the comment that they are extremely motivated and are the best Ukraine can send. 2024 is going to have a different look over the skies of Ukraine.
-- *_Thank you Alex and Sandbox News!_*
What about data linking? Do these have the capability, and if so what are the chances nato will allow them to datalink with their awacs?
Thank you for creating and uploading this one.
Commentary I've seen from USAF sources says one of the biggest challenges is that Ukraine operates fighters out of austere airfields. The F-16 requires excellent runways and has no FOD protection to keep foreign objects out of the intake when taking off or recovering. Such airfields would become instant targets for Russia, so I'm curious as to how Ukraine plans to overcome this problem.
They can use Highways and Roads.
Nah, it's way more complex. Not only are Vipers not meant to land on austere runways like roads, F-16s are base-oriented aircraft from a conceptual design standpoint. There is a heavy maintenance burden including dozens of crew, parts logistics, and tooling that need to be available to keep the jets flying. It's not well-suited to operate in the types of field conditions that Russian MiGs can tolerate. This issue will be the hardest thing to overcome with Western fighters because by the time you can establish ground crew, maintenance facilities, and a place to reliably land you've created a pretty significant target. I do think they can figure out how to get a few flying, but this is a way larger problem than just getting jets and training pilots.
@@joeybobbie1
That's easily fixed by fixing runway cracks + sealing them, and also employing a good FOD program.
Introduction: After over a year of requests, Ukraine is set to receive F-16 Fighting Falcons to aid against the ongoing Russian invasion. The Netherlands plans to transfer 42 F-16s, and Denmark has promised 19 more. While this is a victory for Ukraine, it's essential to understand the capabilities and limitations of these jets.
Analysis Challenges: The topic is vast, and it's challenging to condense the information. There are many variables, including the specific systems on the F-16s and their varying capabilities.
F-16 Capabilities: The F-16s will be a significant upgrade from Ukraine's current fleet of Soviet-era Mig-29s and Su-27s. The F-16s have better radar and missile systems, offering a significant increase in capability.
Training and Usage: While Ukrainian pilots are being trained to operate the F-16s, achieving the same level of proficiency as American pilots will take time. The effectiveness of the F-16s will also depend on how they are used in combat.
Russian Air Doctrine: Russia's approach to air warfare is different from the West. They view air power as an extension of ground forces. The video suggests that Russia's doctrine is more about mitigating its strategic and tactical shortcomings rather than a different approach to warfare.
F-16 vs. Russian Aircraft: The F-16s, especially with the AGM 88 high-speed anti-radiation missile, will be better equipped for suppression or destruction of enemy air defense compared to Ukraine's current jets. However, the F-16s might still be outclassed by some Russian fighters, like the Su-35, on paper. But real-world performance can differ from paper specifications.
Potential Losses: It's likely that some F-16s will be lost in the conflict. However, the provision of F-16s to Ukraine is a significant show of global support. Russian media will likely try to diminish any F-16 losses to undercut global support for Ukraine.
Conclusion: While F-16s are capable aircraft, the war involves more than just fighter jets. Winning the war will require more than just these aircraft.
CONCLUSION: Its not just the platform, its the operator ;) And no matter of CIA powered high speed training can trade for the absolute tens of thousands of hours spent practicing the myriad scenarios that can arise as you attempt to out-OODA loop that enemy fighter ;)
half a year ago, any "advantage" that NATO weaponry and platforms was utterly wiped away in my mind.
Its operator vs operator out there. In real conditions, any technological advantage has been heavily degraded, and this fact simply cannot be ignored.
@@maeton-gaming "half a year ago, any "advantage" that NATO weaponry and platforms was utterly wiped away in my mind." This proves you lost your mind and everything you said is BS or just very wishful thinking.
@@maeton-gaming See Air Force Manual 11-2F-16. Normal training time on the F16 is 12 months, followed by 4 months training in SEAD or other specialized missions. It's hundreds of hours, not tens of thousands. The normal training pace would be 8-hour days, five days a week. Depending on those involved, that pace can be stepped up.
@@maeton-gaming 18 months ago any belief I had that the Russian military could challenge the West evaporated in spectacular fashion when I saw video after video of Russian equipment getting wiped out or just abandoned on the battlefield because they ran out of fuel due to Russia's inability to do logistics.
As a former electronic warfare aircraft maintainer in the U.S. Air Force, specializing on the Wild Weasel system and its integration with the AGM-88 HARM, I don't understand how they are going to keep these F-16s operational. Who is going to fix them? Not only do they require day-to-day maintenance, flying combat sorties is going to accelerate the time tables for regular phase maintenance. Are they planning on flying them next door to Poland to have NATO maintainers do the work?
Very informative video answering many of my questions. Thank you. Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦
Do you know where is Ukraine on the map? 🧐
Sad news. The pilot “Juice” mentioned in this segment passed away. It’s said that his plane was involved in a collision with another plane.
Radar warning receivers can always spot the transmission of a radar transmitter first. No problem at all. To have a two hundred mile range that transmitter has to be very powerful indeed. a good analogy is this. One can see the beam of a flashlight far sooner then that flashlight can see you.
Great video, thanks! I think it's also worth noting that, as with the Leopards and 155mm systems, one big advantage for Ukraine is going to be access to the wealth of F16 parts, fuel, weapons, facilities, and know-how that allied nations can offer. Ukraine's had to husband their already-limited resources very carefully so far, as it's not like Russian manufacturers are going to sell to them to refill their stocks. With the F16s, those limitations disappear.
And while I'm sure Russia will send some of the best of what they have left in order to try to snipe F16s for the propaganda victory (seems to be one of Putin's biggest concerns), it's important to remember that "what they have left" isn't a lot. The toll on Russia's elite forces, especially in the wake of the failure of their initial sneak-attack decapitation strike, has been severe. The VDV basically doesn't exist anymore. The entire pre-war operational fleet of T80s has been wiped-out. The First Guards Tank Army is history. Can't imagine the Russian Air Force, with its continued failure to secure air superiority over a much smaller and much inferior Ukrainian force, has fared much better.
If Ukraine continues to display the rationality and ingenuity that has seen them humble the Russian bear so completely to this point in their operation of the F16s, chances are they're going to have a lot of victories to show in not too long of a timeframe.
@4:52 The first Block 50 didn't roll off the production line until 10 months after DESERT STORM. He probably meant OIF.
O-M-G! Alex, this video montage is like Air Force PORN!😁 If I didn't need one to fly, I'd give my right leg to do what they do flying in this vid. You've got great source material!
Thanks I was feeling frustrated it was taking so long to train the Ukrainian pilots, given that they have so much real combat experience already, but now I understand what the training is for.
3 simple points: F-16 spare parts available for sustained operations; the number of missiles, bombs and ammo for sustained operations, and the number of trained and experienced Ukrainian F-16 pilots. Add the readiness levels of various F-16s on top of that and you won't get the silver bullet you want.
Not sure if you heard, but Juice reportedly died in an L-39 accident this week. RIP Juice.
SEAD and Air-to-Air must not be ignored
These F-16s are going to end up like the Leopard tanks and Bradley vehicles. It isn't possible for these UK pilots to attain anywhere near proficiency in these airplanes. I wish them well but as an old fighter pilot myself, I just don't believe they can pull it off.
You mentioned a Ukrainian pilot call sign "Juice" in this video, sad to say he reportedly died today when his Mig-29 collided with another Ukrainian Mig-29. War is hell.
Alex to be blunt and honest about this, "You hit the Nail on the Head" friend it will take more than just the F-16 to win this war in Ukraine but it will help boost moral in Ukraine and that will help the people as a whole, yes as one gentleman said a balanced appraisal of this situation ... Thanks again Semp Fi
sad to hear juice's name after the recent mishap. RIP heroes
As a former part of the 312, 315 squads of F-16s in the Netherlands, I can guarantee you that the aircrafts delivered to Ukraine will have the latest and greatest up to block 52, and additional software upgrades, as well as defensive exploit suites to counter russian targeting systems, created internally in The Netherlands by Thales ( the developers of the GoalKeeper CIWS) and more features I am not allowed to disclose.
No effect. They are too complicated. When simplified and separated from the US network, they cannot perform effectively.
I really love it when mainstream media talks about the F-16 in the context of Ukraine as if it was a 5th gen fighter. I mean, i can't say i'm not super excited myself to see one of my favourite fighters and most beautiful aircraft ever made see action in a conflict like this again, but its still kinda funny and or sad.
As said in one of my earlier messages it seems Netherlands is providing 42 MLU's with updates till 2015. Se they are pretty recent but do lack the AESA radar.
RIP Juice.
Finally got to this after watching several hype pieces on the subject. This is exactly what someone wishing to understand the potential impact of this airframe on the war really needs. Just the facts.
People need to realize this is a knock-down, drag-out fight. No magic weapon is going to suddenly end it.
Sadly, Andrii Pilshchykov “Juice” was one of three fatalities involving two L39 trainer aircraft in an accident over Zhytomyr Oblast on Friday 25th August 2023.
This is a great breakdown of what can be expected of Ukraine pilots using F-16's but I would like to add my thoughts. 1) It all depends on the Ukraine pilots training. I kind of assumed that at least some Ukraine pilots have started training months ago. I mean well on their way for training. 2) It takes months to train any pilot for any aircraft and here we are at the end of August 2023. The Ukraine ground troopers are gaining grounds and winter is approaching. Ukraine should be able to field capable F-16s this fall and over winter into next year. 3) Situational awareness that the F-16 can provide is in my opinion key and very Strategic The F-16 is an air to air and ground attack. 4) I think that the russian/soviet/putin air force is antiquated and it all comes down to pilot training. 5) Ukraine training, F-16 wild weasel and attack will break the russians. 6) The lack of russia training new pilots on old ass soviet airframes will be the downfall of putin. The truth is, Putin/russia is getting smashed left/right and center and in 2024 Ukraine will attack the orc mobliks when they hove no guns, no ammo, no boots, no winter coats and no love from putin.... F-16's will be the Ukraine game changer in my opinion. it will just take some months of training
Ukraine is not making any progress on the ground ...it is a war of attrition which is unwinnable against Russia. The Ukrainian army will collapse long before the F16 are operational and they would not make any kind of difference given the scale of this conflict. Ukrainian losses currently stand at 450000 to 550000 men and Russian losses maybe 70000 to 150000. The defender has a massive advantage in trench warfare and the Russians have spend months building fortifications. There are three lines and the first line has not even been breached ...
Its almost Feb 2024 now, and what ground gains has Ukraine had in the last year or ever since Russia dug in? Nothing worth mentioning. It's a war of attrition and Ukraine is losing. The world is less supportive and getting sick of the Ukraine war already. USA and UK already moving their focus back to middle east and if Trump wins, the money and weapons tap will be turned off, political support will be withdrawn, and Ukraine will be done and forced to make concessions and end the war which they could never win to begin with.
The only thing you must admit is that Jdam oo8 combat wombat division had better keep their 360clean and dry or it Katy bar the door . Don't get apac awac systems confused with 470A2P or leakage occurs at regular intervals above 60 meters per second ..with respect to enemy combatants or collateral damage .
It's crazy how war thunder makes me understand these concepts so easily lol
F16 gonna be a gamechanger
I really like this channel because it is not just other peoples information and thought regurgitated. You get solid direct insight in every video. Some of the best quality air power and capability reporting.
Solid Video M8, real solid. SLAVA UKRAINI.
That was a decent one. You’re gettin a like
It's no secret that the F-16s are seriously "delicate," requiring a high magnitude of just non combat maintenance.
Add that the F-16 requires a rather 'perfect' runway environment - which is easily defeated by the limited number of Ukrainian air bases - and the ease of Russian attack missile targeting.
Whether the F-16s are destroyed on the ground, in the air or their operating bases/runways are damaged/destroyed; their chance at being an effective weapons platform faces a lot of serious "problems."
It shouldn't be lost that the Ukrainian air defense capabilities are already extremely limited, just in terms of protecting Kiev.
It's naive to discount Russia's intelligence capabilities, relative to Russia's ability to locate the intended F-16 bases, and the location of the F-16 parking areas/hangars; add the specific maintenance facilities which service the F-16s.
It shouldn't be overlooked that the first class of Ukrainian F-16 pilots is about to graduate from "F-16 Grade School," leaving a serious time requirement to get up to speed in the actual combat environment.
In concert, nothing has been said about the training of the required Ukrainian maintenance/support crews.
In the interim, the Russians have the undeniable battlefield combat initiative; while the Ukrainian forces capabilities and manpower are not only being destroyed at an increasing rate, but the quality of the Ukrainian 'replacements' are pathetically inferior to their predecessors.
Hence, in general, the Ukrainian military and political leadership are irrevocably out of time.
Thus, if any number of F-16s are actually delivered, they will probably serve as Russian intelligence resources - if the so-called "West" doesn't first destroy them, before the Russians can get their hands on them.
In sum, it's worth questioning whether or not any of the F-16s will ever actually get delivered. In the periphery, the pertinent "Western" promises (allusions) are left to serve the "Western" propaganda and political PR machinery.
Worst case, the F-16s will serve as so many real-life airborne targets for the Russian fighters and air defense units.
Hear, "Too little, seriously WAY too late.."
Where the F-16 could potentially make a huge difference is if they are provided with anti ship missiles where they could pretty much chase the Russian fleet out of the western Black sea and open up grain shipments.
With a mixture of HARMs and anti ship missiles that might pose a huge threat to the Russian surface fleet, both at sea or in ports such as Sevastopol.
Plus they could help take out the Kerch Bridge and isolate Crimea from being supplied by sea other than the Sea of Azov.
That plus keeping the Russian aircraft at bay with AMRAAMs could be a real game changer!
Some thoughts:
1. I understood that some US / UK / EU fighter pilots were willing to support Ukraine in it's fight for democracy. This should big asset here, as the training is one bottleneck. This should apply also to maintenance.
2. If a US / UK / EU fighter pilot (or fighter mechanic) decides to go to Ukraine, it is his/her personal decision. There are no ties to any government in this decision. Furthermore, the Russia talked about consequences when HIMARS were sent, when Finland joined NATO, when leopards were sent, when sanctions were applied on banks etc. No consequences yet.
3. If the F16 is flying mostly in Ukraine controlled airspace, then who knows the nationality of the pilot. Same goes for the maintenance personnel that naturally works far from the frontier.
4. Foreign pilots could be, at least, used to secure Kiev, as it hosts diplomats from other countries.
Typical in-depth objective analysis by Alex H … IMO, one of the best aerospace journalists out there.
FYI - Just returned from a visit to friends in Russia - visited a Russian Air Force Base and they have taken delivery of 21 BRAND NEW SU-57's - 20 more on delivery within the next 14 months - 32 Air Bases will be equipped with the SU-57 by 2025. Sukhoi is producing 4 aircraft per month now and they are being actively deployed in Russia's Far East bases first.
What makes the distinctive sound of the SU-57 is produced by the Engine Air intake Duct design and the unique capability of an active variable bypass ratio of the turbofan. They are 3 engine options for the SU-57 and the development of all 3 is ongoing.
The Radar Cross Section of the aircraft is 500 times smaller than the F-16 due to - in development Radar Absorbing Coatings being developed by Zala Aero for the Russian Air Force.
The ability to out maneuver the F-16 is already proven because its a better version of the SU-33 which the Indian Air Force flew against the U.S. Air Force in 2008 and achieved a kill ratio of 11 -2 against the F-16 and the F-15. There is NO CONTEST - PERIOD!! as far as Air to Air Maneuverability is concerned.
However, Pilot Training and Individual Aggression and Innovation will always be the deciding factor in any Air to Air Encounter.
How does the SU-57 achieve its Superior Maneuvrability ?? In addition to the 3D Thrust Vectoring Engine Nozzles the aircraft has High Deflection Wing Leading Edge Strakes that allow rapid air flow directional changes and thus rapid changes in the centre of pressure / lift coefficient of the lifting body - thus allowing extreme directional changes along the aircraft's 3 axis'. In other words - it can temporarily go completely out of control but in a controlled manner in order to achieve maximum "Off Bore Sight" / Point & Shoot / Evasive Action.
The F-22 is positively lethargic by comparison and an F-16 will be shot out of the sky forthwith - particularly in Ukraine where the Russian Military has preformed BVR Strike Capability heretofore unmatched in modern warfare.
The F-16 with AMRAAM will only be effective against the SU-57 if Highly Experienced American - Israeli or NATO Pilots are in the Cockpit and operate on a "See First -Shoot First" Net Centric Combat Scenario. Otherwise, the SU-57 has the ability to shoot them out of the sky within 3 minutes of them taking off from their bases in Poland or any other of the Baltic States.
How So ? The SU-57 deploys a BVR Missile known as the R-37M with a 400 km range. militarywatchmagazine.com/article/longest-ranged-aam-performs-ukraine-su57
This missile has its development origins from the Hughes AIM-54 which the Russian Military Intelligence (GRU) got their hands on in 1979 when a fully equipped F-14 Tomcat was secretly transferred to Russia from the Imperial Iranian Air Force during the Islamic Revolution that saw the fall of the Shah of Iran and the installment of the Radical Islamic Cleric Ayatollah Khomeini.
If you think this story is baloney - then I invite you to read this book by Viktor Suvorov - "Inside Soviet Military Intelligence"
www.amazon.com/Inside-Soviet-Military-Intelligence-Suvorov/dp/0026155109
Bottom Line Folks - NATO could send 500 F-16's to Ukraine - IT WILL CHANGE NOTHING !! Why Do I Say This ??
1. It takes 4 years of comprehensive Tactical Red Flag / Foreign Deployment Experience and Training to deliver a Competent Air Combat Pilot capable of operating in a highly contested air space & complex modern warfare scenario.
2. Ukraine does not possess the Trainable Man Power nor the Active Duty Experienced Pilot resources from which to draw the required personnel to even remotely accomplish a competently trained and active operational squadron before 2028.
3. Unless the U.S. and NATO decide to put American - Israeli and NATO Pilots in the F-16's delivered to Ukraine - The combat losses ratio will be precisely what they are now - 10 to 0
4. Russian Air Defense Systems have proven that everything from small hobby drones and aircraft to high altitude high speed missiles can be successfully intercepted and destroyed.
5. If the U.S. and NATO are Stupid Enough to even think of deploying Tactical Nukes on F-16's - Russia will Actively Target every NATO / U.S. Base in Europe - including Naval Carrier Groups in the Atlantic and the Mediterranean with a combined Nuclear Assault up to and not limited to - Major Cities and Economic Infrastructure.
I am definitely NOT PRO RUSSIAN - I'm a Facts Only / Scientific Data / Experienced Veteran - We need to get our Asses Back In Line and De-escalate this ongoing Bullshit Proxy Conflict or we will be handed our Very Burnt Smoking Asses on a Platter that says - "From Russia with Love"
You crystal ball predictions are essentially assuming a dog fight between U.S. and Russian planes. In the 21st Century, there will be no dog fights, since all kills will be from several hundred miles stand off. Whomever has the best lock on sensing wins. and that's not Russia.
What block are these F-16s?
Excellent report. I guess that as the Ukrainian AF begin to field the Viper Squadrons, they will slowly introduce them to the fight, allowing them to provide solid CAP for the rearward cities. The F-16s with AGM-88 and 65s bring A2G options but the AIM-120 bring A2A capability and augments the various Ukrainians Air Defense systems. F-16s in the rear means more IDAS can be moved up to the front, giving the Russian Aircraft the choice of flying deep into Ukrainian Air Space with growing AntiAir capability or keeping their strike aircraft further back. I imagine the Ukrainians will also be training not only pilots and maintenance folks but Operations Instructors. Another cool thing is the Ukrainians have real world experience against the S-300/400, Su-35 and will couple that with newer tactics from Western Instructors. Im sure some the Vipers will be retained for training but a sudden influx of two or three Squadrons will have an effect.
I really like your videos, man!
The Russian radar-guided AA missiles used to be controlled from the plane's radar rather than the missile. The plane also had to keep its nose pointed at the target otherwise the radar lock would be broken.
Is that still true or have they gotten radar-guided fire-and-forget missiles by now?
'Global support,' that's a good one.
RiP Juice. Sad to see he never got to experience the F-16 in Ukraine.
Speed though important costs a lot of gas. And to get.max speed of mach 2+ will require a clean airframe ie: no bombs high subsonic is the best you get with any reasonable range
Excellent work!