The Hard Truth About Population Decline
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- Опубликовано: 28 мар 2024
- Tychos' Richard Vague discusses the economic implications of declining population growth, acknowledging its environmental importance while emphasizing the challenges it poses for GDP growth, aging demographics, and the need for strategic responses.
For more information on this topic and much more please visit us at join.tychosgroup.org/
See also:
debteconomics.org/ (Recent and historical economic data of the world's largest 47 countries)
bankingcrisis.org/ (200 years of economic data on financial crises experienced by the world's 7 largest economies)
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This is, hands down, the most fascinating post, since...since...well, since your last post. Thank you, Richard.
The three elements of production: Land, Labour, Capital. What happens when your Labour shrinks?
robots and better nature walks?
I'll liked the apparent change of speed on this subject, even though the specific look at the B7 points to how you decided to present on this subject.
Building on this, and since you asked, how about the other element of change in population size: migration. The US is the real stand-out on this, and how that's contributed to the different story between the US and EU is seldom explained, and you folks would be great at that. It's a more controversial subject as well.
The most important factor of production: energy. In an age of dwindling oil and gas reserves we can't afford to increase the population.
@@jofoliveres2 Call me an optimist but I don't think energy is going to be a constraint so long as we have the huge fusion reactor in the sky. Oil and gas are used primarily for economic reasons. They're cheap; cheap to extract and transport and packed full of energy. Besides, there would be more demand on energy resources if the population hung out at 8-billion but converged on US consumption levels in 50 years than if we added another 2-billion in Africa and south Asia over the same time.
@@thomasjgallagher924True that population increases in poor countries don't strain so much the resource situation. But all those poor countries want to grow to the levels of Europe or America and they want to increase their energy consumption. Unless we wish for a very unequal world or we want to impoverish rich countries very much we should deplore these population increases. The only way poor countries can grow in GDP per capita in a world of limited resources is to stabilize population or even reduce it.
About fusion reactors: they are always 50 years in the future. Maybe I'm wrong but we may never see them working.
House to expensive for new family . Old people have 4 home As an investment. Increase house prices
GDP is not a measure of economic health or social well being.
Because women are not having so many children, we have an enormous proportion of our populations in paid employment, paying taxes.
Well done. Love the graphs.
Empowering women is the most effective way to reduce fertility rates and achieve a sustainable population size that respects the limits of Earth’s carrying capacity. The number of years a woman has spent in education is usually inversely correlated with the number of children she will bear in her lifetime. - Quote from population matters. There are many articles that say the same thing. The important thing is we need to continue marching toward equality. Let's get those numbers to zero people!
But falling population is disasterous. Pensions cannot be paid, health care systems cannot be financed, there is excess infrastructure that cannot be maintained. The current economy is basically a Ponzi scheme.
If people do not marry and have families misery and depression increases. Falling demand means falling tax revenues. It's a race to the bottom.
Very interesting, Richard!
Glad you think so! Thanks for watching!
Would love your opinion on the underlying thesis of "The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Waning Inequality, and an Inflation Revival" by Goodhart and Pradhan. I sense from your earlier videos that you wouldn't agree with them that the demographic changes will produce inflation but maybe not.
The tax on childlessness was a natalist policy imposed in the Soviet Union and other Communist countries, starting in the 1940s. Joseph Stalin's regime created the tax in order to encourage adult people to reproduce, thus increasing the number of people and the population of the Soviet Union. The 6% income tax affected men from the age of 25 to 50, and women from 20 to 45 years of age.The tax remained in place until the collapse of the Soviet Union.
This propaganda communist policy made the Soviet Union's birth rate always between 2.6-2,3 during the period 1960 -1990 .
And the Soviet Union was the first country in the world to legalize abortion in 1918 .But then abortion was Ban again in 1933 as a result of the birth rate dropping from 7.0 to 4.0.After the tax on chilliness was implemented. Abortion was legalized again in 1955.
Population collapse i.e no more slaves to milk 😂
A compelling a fascinating discussion.
Stellar upload, thank you; would be interesting to see how migration will change societies from those countries who see a drain and those that see a gain
Would love an outline of what you think the challenges are.
Yes indeed. Elder care will be a growth industry. Aiming products at an older population, without these products necessarily being “about aging”. 🙄. Encouraging family without forgetting the many DINKS and intentionally single people. As well as “providing community” through social networking and areas for mixing.
Genetics 🧬
People managed well without jobs, built their own housing, grew their crops and livestock. Now it's all about the growth of the economy.
Fewer people need less production. Economic growth is destroying our earth.
You should turn off all comment restrictions so I can actually express myself without RUclips removing it.
Never going to happen. RUclips will never give up total control of the narative. They are the video media version of twitter and are equally hated.
Its simple.i dont need a masters degree to realize in today's economy most people cant afford children. Something had to give. We struggle to make are mortgage payments. Have you seen the cost of daycare? WAKE UP.
Very interesting video. Thanks !
In our age of climate crisis and energy crisis we can't afford to increase populations. With oil and gas reserves being depleted it would be pure folly to push for higher birthrates. Sadly many orthodox economists don't care about sustainability and are advising for more subsidies to big families. If the Club of Rome forecasts are true this passion for bigger populations can only bring us doom. 😱
The real danger is the spread of people from low impact, high fertility nations into Europe and the USA. Africans and Asians are invading Europe because they have outbred their own economies and want to cadge off other peoples'
We need protection of all humans life from moment of conception.
We need to take care of the people we already have. That's the reason why they don't want to create anymore stop. You can't neglect those who need to spawn and expect them to happily give you their progeny to exploit, use, and neglect as well.
@AdelTheForsaken Well said!
Population decrease is a good thing. If you need people just loosen immigration laws a bit and they will come pouring in. As for money tax rich people and corporations. They have plenty of money.
I'm grateful to have stumbled upon your channel. Subscribed and excited for more!