How I Deal with Downswings
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- Опубликовано: 27 сен 2024
- Welcome to the channel! In his premiere video, Phil discusses something all poker players have dealt with at one time or another: Downswings.
He details a variety of methods that can be applied to working through a bad run and to better understand what contributed to it. Amid all the advice and approaches one can take, remember most importantly, at the end of the day, poker is just a game. Losing at poker is not losing at life. Taking a break and gaining perspective can only help.
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02:30 Take a break
03:08 Never waste a good crisis
07:07 Try to be more self-aware
09:50 Poker Variance Calculator
12:40 Get involved with a poker community
15:15 Bayesian Probability
21:35 Take a break (no really)!
Phil may be uncomfortable asking you this, but we have absolutely no shame: Don't forget to like and subscribe!
Phil's very helpful business friend is Paul Dominski. You can find him here:
/ pauldominski
Winston Churchill is not on LinkedIn.
But you CAN follow Phil:
Twitter: / philgalfond
Instagram: / phil.galfond
Producer: Thomas Deming-Henes
Post Producer: Anne Johnson
Original Music: DJ Spinello
Epidemic Sound Credit: Across the Waters - Dream Cave
If you enjoyed this and want to improve your mindset at the tables, you’d like my free ebook, Poker Mindset Strategy. Get your copy here: www.philgalfond.com/mindset-yt
6:12 is the most important advice here imo. I've had ups and downs both in poker and crypto, very large ones, and it's imperative that you mentally reset and accept where you are TODAY. You have to tell yourself, this is how it is now, it doesn't matter how things were before i played that big losing session. I'm at the stakes I'm at now, my goals have to change and I have to re-adjust to my current position, not where I thought I would be. So, so critical for your mental health. And the cool thing is, once you just accept things as they are now, the human mind can actually adapt very quickly and you'll start to feel a whole lot better very fast. But you must let go of what once was and no longer is.
Beautiful post. I feel better already about my current situation. Thanks for taking the time to post this.
(L)
I just wanna listen to two Phil galfonds have a long thought out conversation
That would be great!
Yes, please.
I want to watch them do something very different 😉
Phil Galfond!-Your Perspectives On Overcoming Downswings-Has Helped Me-Too!&I've Won!@Poker!-14 Times/Total!@Limit&No-Limit Texas Holdem-'The Cadillac Of Poker!'&I'm Always-Learning&This Poker VLOG-Definately Helps Me!-To Do Better-Next Time!-Raymond "Mike" Hong!&(Good Luck!-Phil Galfond&Everybody!-Mike!)😎👍!!!!!!!!!
two moderate downswings in the last years in nlh. Only 17 buyins. Currently in a stay 0 swing for seven months. Is less harsh but still frustrating :) The goal adjusting advice is really a good one!!
I've been in a downswing of life. Bad things are happening at a much higher rate than in the past. I love playing poker and I expect to win every time I set down. I've been trying to using the game as a "release", but I'm running so bad it just seems like a continuation of everything else that's going wrong. I know things will turn around, not only in poker but in life. Let's face it, there's variance in life, not just poker.
I am a Swedish player. In Sweden we have a lot of forest and a walk for itself is extremely healing, psychologically, mentally and physically. I highly recommend it, especially during bad poker times. Good content and already looking forward to more videos.
Taking a walk in the forrest is just like playing poker, sooner or later I will get lost.
Looking forward for more. You are a very good presenter of information, It feels very genuine, and therefore feels very believable. In downswings, I feel that the hardest, and the most important part, is that "reset" in your mindset (accepting the current situation, and forgetting the old one, as you said).
I think all points are right on. Really valuable insight from a high level player on downswings. I basically quit 10 years ago because I didn't know how to deal with it. Videos like this would def help anyone in a similar situation now.
The thing is with Poker, I see it as a hobby am I'm thankful for that. For those who play as their job, that must be brutal. Reason being, I see poker as a coin flip with "up/down" swings. In other words, most of the time you don't control your fate in big all ins when he has KK and you AA. Most of the time, the River will decide your fate. That is why having a nice paying job is guaranteed money that I will always get. I play poker on the side and more for the enjoyment and thought process of beating my opponents, not to live off my winnings. If I win , cool! If I lose, learn from it. This is my mentality.
That last tip about keeping everything in life in perspective is great. Thx Phil
I've been running really bad lately for last 10 days or so, so was great to stumble across this. Thanks Phil :D
Very informative. A couple of years ago, I found myself on a long downswing. At that point I took a critical look at what I was doing. Realized that I was falling behind. I feel I'm a better player than I was two years ago. But also definitely have a lot left to learn.
Thanks for some more things to think about.
I love the idea of studying to improve confidence. I've noticed I'm a lot more emotionally robust against bad beats when I'm freshly studied.
Love it. After two bad downswing makes me feel uplifted by listening to you. Just that when we go to downswing it's easier to go too hard on ourselves rather than accepting that variance is a part of poker.
I watched you back in 2015 analyzing hands you played online. Your thought process made me realize how bad I actually was back then at poker. Listening to you now speak about downswings makes re realize that it happens to the very best. I just climbed out of a downswing and won everything I lost in a month in 3 sessions to be in the black. I questioned myself, my play, why I am even doing this to myself. You hit spot on the goals adjustment. Thats exactly what I did. Thanks for a great video. I enjoy the sound of your voice and refuse to listen to…I won’t even say his name. Thanks again!!!
This video definitely made my day, just came out at the right time, thanks Phil for share this awesome thoughts and looking forward for more content like this.
Thank you! I hope things turn around for you quickly.
That so for this video Phil. I look forward to hearing more.
The best poker advice available on the internet. Thanks Phil 👍
Your videos are very much appreciated
I love the advice in regard to resetting goals, cause that's often hard for me where you made a goal and now that goal a lot harder to reach to the point where that goal becomes demotivating.
It's pretty rare that a "talking head video" on poker is compelling, but this is one of those rarities. Looking forward to seeing more of this :)
After 1:30 seconds, I have had to pause to add this comment, which I very rarely do. It is as if you are vocalising my recent experiences. These experiences are after many years of playing poker (30+) and a recent attempt to go full time. I am still working on the bankroll issues, but you are absolutely 100% correct with the emotional and mental aspects and the illusions that drift into and out of the mind, whilst trying to remember that you can play poker profitably.
Thank you very much for sharing that. I hope the rest of the video was helpful for you.
Great video Phil. One point that I think is worth bringing up is that running the EV/variance calculator can also be helpful in seeing how much more variance there is than the person realized. You mentioned that if someone finds out that the situation they are in is a 25% probable scenario given their assumptions that they shouldn't be too concerned. However, this means they should be concerned but for a different reason than what they were originally checking for. They shouldn't be too concerned that their original assumptions are wrong yet (25% probabilities will happen frequently). But they should be very concerned that they feel like they are on a huge downswing in a simulation where they are only at their 25% threshold of how bad things can get. Sometimes finding out you are in the 25% category is more frightening than the 5% category because it means that you could be running way worse and likely it means that you are over-betting relative to the Kelly Criterion. Over betting Kelly leads to added variance as well decreased long term profits (specifically because it causes you to move down in stakes too frequently). And if you are over betting Kelly by 2x, your risk of ruin goes to 100% in the long run (despite only putting on +EV bets).
One other point that not many people talk about is the reverse side of this equation. All of this logic that you described can be used with upswings as well and can be useful for determining when to be moving up in stakes. People use this frequently on the downswing, but it is rare that people use it when they are winning. Not having the methodology on the upside leads some players to move up in stakes entirely too quickly, and makes other players stay at lower stakes for too long.
Reading your Twitter thread, and since we're on the topic of Churchill quotes, here's another one - "Perfection is the enemy of progress". So that's it, f perfection, your wisdom and heart with the right dose of effort can travel the world and back and help and inspire us all. Grateful for this gem and excited for whatever is coming. Thank You Phil !
Wow. Really kind words and they hit me hard. I am absolutely still struggling with perfectionism and doubt here and will be for a while, I'm sure. Thank you so much.
@@PhilGalfond I am familiar with this one all too well myself, perhaps that is why the message resonated.
Judging by the responses and all the love great things are ahead. Personally as a long time admirer of you and your work, I'm excited to see it all unfold :)
So good to have you here. Stopped playing poker in 2010, but just thinking about giving poker another chance :-)
You are like pokers Mr rogers, watched the videos in reverse order but really enjoying listening to you talk poker and experiences while im out walking taking a break from playing + study
I take that comparison as very high praise. Thanks so much, and I'm glad you're enjoying these videos!
Great content Phil! I'm really looking forward to hearing your perspectives on whatever topics you find compelling. In this video, I like the very practical and clear way you approached the subject. I especially appreciated the tie-in with Bayesian Inference. I'm a big believer in the power of Bayesian thinking in many areas of life, and it's very applicable here. Cheers!
Thank you Phil, Sincerely appreciate the way you have explained this personally, mathematically & how we can ans should do create a balance and come back strong. Thank you once again and appreciate your content that you have been creating for the Fraternity.
Thanks for the content. As an early subscriber I feel like I got in on the ground floor of a good stock being offered before the masses can get it. I like the analogy of how you stated Poker can feel like your whole world when in the moment when in reality we have to put it in its perspective and have other factors in life that's important as well so as to 1 doesn't dominate our thoughts. Last, my opinion, I know your a humble guy but feel free to plug your business, it's your channel and your giving us content for free, you can easily charge for this knowledge so if your steering us to greater research and it goes thru one of your businesses, plug it.
Hey Phil! Love that you're on RUclips, have been a fan for a long long time. Would love to see you mix in some lifestyle stuff alongside business and Poker content. Love ya man!
Thanks, Alex! When you say lifestyle, what do you mean specifically? I'm always looking for ideas!
@@PhilGalfond so from my POV you're a poker titan, own a Poker site yourself, coaching site etc but I've never seen any content from you around your daily life. Perhaps you need to figure out your ideal audience and cater to that but I see a lot of successful RUclipsrs documenting their day to day and I'd love to see that from you. Buy a GoPro and film some stuff at home, when you travel and when you have RIO meetings etc. Basically some behind the scenes stuff from your life for me would be super interesting. The day to day things you might think aren't super interesting probably are for your audience. It doesn't need to be exclusively that type of content but I think adding a bit of that to the mix would be awesome. Take Doug or Joey for example, I think they missed an opportunity in not doing more Vlog style content, perhaps it didn't interest them but I think their audiences would love it. Take a look at Nelk Boys, they mix content really well. Anyway man whatever you do I'll cheer you on! Keep it coming.
Cole South brought me here. Thanks Phil.
I like the quality of the content and the calm that you present your ideas. I'm looking forward for this channel
Great video. Thank you very much! I hope to see more content from you. It would be interesting to see more videos about the strategy of playing PLO and about optimizing the grinding process.
unique style - great stuff on how to live through and what targets to have after a downswing
I've been on quite the downswing lately and it's really messed with my confidence and/or ability to be on top of my game. Thanks for sharing this wealth of knowledge as I will definitely apply some of the tactics discussed. Run good.
Phil you are the absolute best. Thank you for this video and thank you for all future videos in advance. I have been a fan for a long time, and the way you speak and explain things resonates so well with me. Even when I already know a lot about a topic or point you are making, the way you articulate it makes the lesson that much more understood and impactful on my life.
Super happy to see this channel Phil!
Great video Phil, I hope you will keep posting more videos regularly!
Thank you. That's the plan!
Learning about The gamblers ruin fallacy really helped me here
So pleased the legend himself has his own RUclips channel can’t wait to enjoy the content
Phil.... you're the best
Awesome man!! Glad to see you joining the ranks with us in poker youtube!!
Good luck with this journey Phil! Looking forward to it.
Yes! Thanks for doing this Phil! We love and respect you! I´m excited and looking forward for many more videos to come.
:) Thank you, Adriano.
Great content, very useful. Not many professionals talk about the mental game. Thank you!
Well well well if it ain't the guy that taught me PLO! Great to see you here man
Do you realise how tough it is to have 500+ likes and 0 dislikes? Very gangster Phil, props
Had to jump over to watch this video, I've been on a downswing playing 1NL that is driving me nuts. Just flopped top set Aces over bottom set 4s and he wins with runner runner flush. I know it happens but whens it going to stop.
I did place 3rd in tourney on Christmas Day for $3548 which corrected the downswing plus a good chunk but when is it going to stop. LOL.
Now that I've vented I'll watch video.
Great stuff by the way. You should promote Run it Once, never know about it.
Welcome Phil - looking forward to all videos.
Thank you!
Very happy to have found your channel, wasn't sure you had an official one! Been watching a lot of your videos on poker strategy and podcasts with joey; keep making videos! :)
Thank you Phil:)
Hi Phil! I appreciate your thoughtful approach to this topic and poker in general. Although I am not currently in a downswing, much of your advice in this video is useful and I’ll search out this clip when things are tough.
When you get it in with your opponent with a better hand yet every time your opponent comes out on top, that feeling is self-destructive.
Thank you for this video. It was very informative and professional. Today I had one of the worst sessions in my life, and after I saw that you just posted this video. What a coincidence :)
One practical thing to do that is useful is get a randomizer on your iphone (there are plenty of apps). And say you feel you have a 60/40 edge in your game (which is pretty optimisic). Sit down with pen and paper and "flip the coin". If the # is between 0 and 50 you lose $400 imaginary dollars and if it's between 51 and 100 you win $600 imaginary dollears. You'll be shocked how bad you can actually run even when you have a clear built in edge. I also tried 55/45 and was down 2200 have 40 "sessions"
human like everyone else, idk about that man. You are a beast!
Thanks Phil
You're very welcome. Thanks for watching!
LEGEND.
The most likeable poker pro called Phil : ).
:)
just keep pushing
Keep doing this great work, congratz!
Hey Phil really nice video looking forward to hear alot more mental game content. perfect time for me this video
PHIL. When people say "the game is good" so I can NOT leave..we are lying to ourselves..I've been playing 50 years and there is ALWAYS another great game coming around the corner. Get in your R&R (and study, hand review) and youl'll be ready for the NEXT 'good game'.. the over-grinders WILL NOT !!
hope to see your video everyday before I jump onto the session!
Phil, please do some hand analysis from your PLO challenges and convey your thought processes. I hope to see your PLO contents!
Love it!
Nice work Phil, you're someone who's opinion i respect massively in this field so glad to watch the video. That being said, two things I would offer as feedback would be a) 20 minutes may be too long - I personally think youtube is more geared towards a 10 minute run time. b) look at perhaps speaking a little faster, this will in turn help with retention.
Anyways excited to see where you go with this!
Thanks, Brandon! I'm not sure if I'm capable of speaking faster in this format of video, but I agree that it would be better if I could. I'll see what I can do.
I'm going to try different lengths (and styles) of video and see what people think!
Quality Galfond. Would Phil again.
Congratulations sir.
Holy skinny Phil! Looking good brother
Thank you for the content. Keep it coming
Thank you very much for the video.
I see you from Colombia.
Hope to see more Phil good luck on growing the channel and poker
Thanks, Thomas :)
Great 1st video. Would be awesome if you also released these as podcasts as well.
Is Phil the coolest guy in Poker. 💪🏻
Good Stuff Phil.
Thank you 😊
Love it, keep them coming!
I need to work out how much im down rn, im down 25 buy ins on partypoker, 15 - 20 on pokerstars, ive dropped stakes twice, I'm getting beat by stakes that i used to warm up in, that's the thing that's so hard to deal with is the confidence. I keep taking breaks, I keep switching from cash to tournaments to sit and gos, quite litterally had a sit and go the other day where I didnt get a single hand in my range the whole game, just slowly lost blinds and ante to death, the bluffs were effective tho, the table was very scared of me 😂
yo, welcome to YT… looking forward to more videos…
Thank you. Looking forward to making them!
Congrats for doing this!! It's great!
Thank you!!
Let's go Phil! Good luck!
Hey, Jaman! I don't spend much time consuming content here, so I feel wrong calling myself a "fan" when I've only watched a couple of your videos, but you do really great work! Thank you for the warm welcome.
@@PhilGalfond Thanks my man. Don't hesitate to hmu if ya need anything. Thanks for all your contributions to the community
Love to see you making content.
Thank you!
Hey Phil, watching this video was very enjoyable! Includes plenty of good advice! Keep it coming.
Especially when people like you, it can be hard to come by good feedback. Also, given that there are likely no grave mistakes, it may take a while for people to spot things that they don't like.
I feel slightly stupid writing this but if I had to criticize one thing it would be the flickering screen on your refill station.
Apart from that, I love the entire scene!
Thanks, Moonlight! Never feel stupid giving me feedback - I value your advice!
Thanks for video. Felt as though you were talking to me directly. Shout out to Winston Churchill for his input too....
Couldn't have done it without WC
Absolute legend
Great to see you on RUclips Phil. My feedback is that it's a little long drawn.
Thank you and noted!
The ums and ahs in your delivery are actually not that bad -- although it is a fine thing to work on through practice as you go along -- but I found that their being included in the captioning, the subtitling, was a bit distracting. It was clearly some sort of text-to-speech conversion. One approach to fix this might be to include an additional step in the post-production process, of reviewing and editing the captioning, so that it continues to follow your speech, but leaves out those fill-in sounds. Punctuation would be good, too.
That said, perfect is the enemy of good. You did a good job, and I am looking forward to more.
This probably shouldn't be free content. But thankful it is.
the reset can be powerful
I’ve been on a downswing for 19 years
😬
Like first, then watch ❤️
Plz post more stuff like this.
Interesting. But you forgot to add, "go down a level."
great
Ty I needed to hear this
Good luck!
Love it. I want more :D
I wonder if someone on a massive up swing has ever actually watched this video.
Very wise stuff; could call much of it common sense, but hearing it from a poker demigod like OMGClayAiken makes it sink in better somehow. (Also Bayesian statistics hell yeah (vamos philosophers!)).
Question, what does he call with to lose the first example, I see he has nothing. What am I missing?