3 Reasons Biden Could Still Beat Trump
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- Опубликовано: 19 май 2024
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With the 2024 Presidential election set to be a rematch between the last two candidates, Trump is currently the bookies favourite to win. But what factors are currently pulling in Biden's election? And how might he upset the odds to win a second term?
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1 - www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us...
2 - www.nytimes.com/2024/03/04/us...
3 - unherd.com/2024/02/how-biden-...
4 - www.economist.com/graphic-det...
5 - www.ft.com/content/db281424-1...
6 - www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-d...
7 - www.ft.com/content/a2373c26-8...
8 - www.ft.com/content/9c7931aa-4...
9 - www.ft.com/content/e9a3dd8f-5...
10 - www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...
11 - www.statista.com/chart/5376/u...
12 - fivethirtyeight.com/features/...
00:00 Introduction
01:20 Disclaimer
01:39 Reason 1: Polling
03:39 Reason 2: The Economy
06:47 Reason 3: Money and Fundraising
07:43 Nebula
This poll is altogether unreliable, it showed dean philips at 12%, he himself joked about how inaccurate it was giving him an extra 7 points.
This is cope
@@Agtsmirnoffdean isn’t a 12% candidate lol
@@Agtsmirnoff polls have been known to be wrong for literally decades. The average American wont ever event answer a poll because the are stuck working or mentally exhausted from working
@@AgtsmirnoffPhillips literally tweeted it making fun of it and of himself. It was a pretty gracious way to accept a loss.
if your looking by how the next election is shaping up historically speaking the GOP is benefiting highly when 3rd party candidates are involve in garnering votes we saw it on 2000 and 2016 where trump won because an independent got some votes enough to devide his oppent with RFK jr. entering the picture Trump would likely won given by this scenario
You forgot biden has a +5% charisma perk when consuming ice cream
And negative -5 when falling
and trump a has a -500 000 000
for beeing a tax evading psychopath making inflammatory suggestive statements on war
@@Kamado4949 A negative -5? So a +5?
Just keep him away from the stairs. Maybe put one of those stunt rigs on the roof to keep him from falling, chinese movie style
@@ThatGuyBrianyou liberals just cannot do math.
The difference between Trump and Biden is that every time Biden opens his mouth he makes you think he's had a stroke, whereas every time Trump opens his mouth he makes you think _you've_ had a stroke.
goddamit i was drinking coffee when i read this............ xD nearly chocked on it
Perfectly said
Best comment
You won the internet sir
Absolutely hilarious. This quote needs to be framed
You forgot number 4: Biden blast
Is that what they call the drugs they gave him just prior to the SOTU address?
Trump: Aha! You activated my *Trump* Card!
Hyaaaaah!
@@aaronhrynyk Considering it's obvious they wouldn't give drugs to an 80 yrs-old, your comment shows how much of an impression his speech has actually made on people.
But let's humor you: tell me, since when do drugs cure dementia?
There's several million reasons that came into America over the last four years.
While the candidate who raises the most money might usually be the one who wins, that last entry is really stark. $96.2M spent on Trump's campaign vs $374.3M for Clinton's...
Keep in mind though that we're still not entirely 100% sure Russia didn't help Trump win, considering how conspicuously chummy Trump has been with Putin since day 1.
So? CNN and FB help the dems. And you don’t think China also interferes? 100% yes. And the other countries who say they don’t like Trump. Outside interference is normal and expected. Doesn’t help though.
Having good relations with the other side is not evidence for election interference. It’s well documented that the entire “Russiagate” thing was completely fabricated.
@@benthomason3307 are we still pushing this conspiracy theory? bro is still pushing the steele dossier 8 years later. ur just as bad as the people who claim the election was stolen in 2020
@@benthomason3307
*"Independent journalists Michael Shellenberger, Alex Gutentag and Matt Taibbi suggest that ... intelligence agencies never really believed the Putin government craved a Trump victory but the opposite, preferring the known quantity of Hillary Clinton."* - WSJ
Dont forget, Biden can use Army of the Dead to summon 10 extra ghouls to assist him in the duel.
😂
Also zombie apocalypse helps with 12 zombies
Sounds more like something Yogg would suggest
Only Trump has that power. Who else did he talk up and instigated in the failed attempted into overthrowing our government?!
im scared if this is just a joke or "biden cheated huuur dead people votes"
No one wanted a rematch, but here we are again
Yeah well if that was the case then niether of them would have blown out their respective primaries. So sick of this dumb doomer narrative.
I do! We need to fix things and make things go back to the way it needs to go. Life these days sucks because the universe is pissed because the man who was supposed to win was cheated. And the only way to fix the universe is by making things right and reelected Donald Trump.
Stop voting Biden🤡
@@Punk_On_Demand delusional. The universe don’t a damn if earth exists or not.
@@gamingthisera6339 stop voting trump🤡
March is so early for an American poll. Usually we don't even know the candidates by now
We knew the candidates 4 years ago...
@@golagiswatchingyou2966 I as an non American knew the candidate 8 years ago since trump won
Yea, by August
So you're saying that invalidates alllt eh polls where trump beats biden.
@@kencook8819 no I'm just saying that it's really early compared to normal elections. It's a commentary on how unconventional this election cycle is
"Chill out and subscribe"
I'm convinced 😂
Tdlr News: biden and trump Are known quantities.
Me: so can i order a biden of milk and a trump of bread?
Trump is the exact color they compare cheetos out of the factory to know they are cheesy enough
@@jordisaura6748and leave a lot of orange dust on your fingers afterwards 🤣🤣
Quantities of senility, maybe.
Americans will use anything but the metric system
@@builder_dahomey indeed, there are more teenagers more mature than those two old farts
The truth is people have such short memories
And often forget or ignore the crimes their government inflict upon them.
Not everyone, we remember the past 8 years of embarrassment.
6:20 excluding food is hilarious because that's the one thing that seems to still be rising very high. Food inflation is still brutal.
well TLDR is a good channel, theyre obviously European left of center.... which makes them the equivalent of bernie bros here.... so ofc they would exclude LOL. they do have a bias for excluding information, even if the analysis they provide is non-biased
rather than blame biden put blame on corporate greed and companies increased prices because of "inflation", while profits increase
The point is that food is usually volatile. This is a known metric, they havent made it up
Food inflation is often due to weather or major geopolitical factors, which the Fed has little-to-no control over. Food is still an important part of CPI calculations, but it's just not quite *as* important to central bank policy
@@MinecraftLivelyno you’re just morons. Core inflation is a way better indicator for long term inflation so if they are talking about the long term state of the economy that voters don’t feel this is very reasonable to bring up.
81 years of experience behind one of them and 91 felonies in front of the other.
which is which?
Another thing to take into consideration is the Republicans that voted for Nikki Haley that said they wouldn't vote for Trump. It wasn't a lot but it was on average about 15-25% which is a massive amount of voters that wouldn't vote for Trump.
A lot of those people polled as voters for Nicki Haley weren't actually Republicans. A lot were democrats. Figure of 15-25% is innaccurate
@@MinecraftLively Maybe not all, but in the situations where there was crossover voting allowed a sizable percentage.
Places like DC & Vermont are open primaries, allowing democrats to vote for republicans
California, otoh, is a closed primary, so Trump won there easily
@@aditya.sagraha he won easily, but not convincingly: Trump needs support of all republicans and he will not get it: too many are seeing through the BS right now, too many intelligent republicans have had enough of the performative nonsense.
Those aren't even Republicans are Democrats voting against Trump
As an American, can I just vent my frustration that literally nobody, NOBODY, wanted this rematch! Why oh god why are we stuck with all of these octogenarian losers! Arrrgggghhhh!!! 😫 We need age limits in our government!
Amen, I never thought I'd miss the times of relatively sane and respectful choices 😮💨.
It seems to be getting worse and worse with each election cycle 🤷🏻♀️.
It feels like the choice, after a second term Trump or Biden, will be between an actual clown and a pantomine. Or between Vermin Surpreme and Lord Buckethead (I know, that one is from the UK 🙄)... Where the hell does this downward spiral end? Where did the, at least somewhat, competent candidates f*ck off too? Why two egyptian mummies? 😒
I agree fully, two walking c*rpses, prepped up, barely, by medicine and make up, crosses a line 😮💨
Just curious, who would you like to have seen running on either side?
Vote independant. As long as you stick with 2 parties, do you see your choices improving?
@@sonneh86 I really would like to have seen Pete Buttigieg try running again for the Democrats. Nikki Haley for the Republican ticket would have been acceptable.
"Dewey defeats Truman".
4:38 I believe it should be mentioned that American wages *are higher* than their pre-pandemic level. That big spike in mid 2020 and then the fall over the course of 2021 is a result of composition effects, not actual changes in wages. Many low-wage workers were fired right as the pandemic started (pushing average wages higher as there were far fewer low wage workers) and then rehired as the country reopened (hence the fall in wages over the course of late 2020 and 2021). That rise and fall of wages werent actual changes people felt, they were composition effects.
Very smart insight. Thank you
Agreed, and well objected.
true, but also inflation has been insane worldwide, and the housing market and cost of rent in the US is practically unobtainable by even the middle class at this point. It wouldn't make sense if wages didn't follow. On a side note, I've always thought it to be ridiculous when people associate inflation and housing costs to the current president. It takes some years for these changes to be felt. It's not instant
@soupisgood44 Very true as well! Accounting for inflation, I believe that managerial wages in particular have stagnated since 2019 (or perhaps fallen slightly, I can't remember) but wage for low-wage workers are currently on trend (although obviously this is an average, so lower wage workers in cities experiencing substantial rent inflation will be worse off in real terms)
@@soupisgood44right and inflation is due to Russia invading Ukraine. What is anybody supposed to do about that?
getting real "heres how Bernie can still win" vibes from this
The first party that loses their 80 year old wins.
Unfortunately both parties has a fresh crop of 80 year olds in Congress
fr fr i keep being like “what if one of them dies”
Biden’s older but trump’s lifestyle is worse, fight
@@deawinter
There are some who really want that Biden gets cut out of the picture (not nessecarily dying), so Harris can take over. To me Biden doesn't sound like a great choice. While he's probably mentally much more capable than it seems impressions matter.
Imo both don't make a great mental impression. Trump constantly gets stuff wrong, however he overshadows his with his...let's call it "personality". When looking at them and breaking it down to the content Trump seems closer to a mental handycap than Biden to be honest.
But while I think Biden is better than it seems I wouldn't rule out that he's mentally degrading.
Imo both parties should have younger more mentally capable candidates and especially drop the confrontational stance. They are opponents, not enemies. At least they shouldn't be.
6:14 Speaking as an American, the majority of us have not cheered up about the economy. Most of us still hate it because everything's ridiculously expensive,
But the inflation has been mainly caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine. That is not Biden's fault.
Speaking as an American, couldn't disagree more.
I am part of a low income family in ATX and we go out for sushi buy pricey things all the time what do you mean?
Depends on where you're shopping, but yeah, I've definitely noticed certain things have gone up in price overtime (like the other day I paid $12.41 for a f*cking 12" Subway sandwich, wtf?!)
You do understand that if the prices drop, we are in a deflationary economy which will inevitably be bad for you and most workers. People will always complain that they want more and more, but they don't have the slightest understanding of how an economy actually works and no, I don't believe you do either, which is a shame because you will more than likely vote to screw yourself over without even knowing you're doing it.
I can tell you why Americans aren't cheery about the economy; it's actually very simple. The answer is housing. Housing has become ludicrously expensive across the US within the past few years, and now eats up a significant portion of Americans' salaries. For the first time ever, the average American salary can no longer afford the average American home. Furthermore, the cost of a vehicle has gone up significantly - especially if you want to get an EV.
EVs are a new technology and like every other technology it becomes cheaper over time. so EVs will be getting cheaper every year, thats just a fact regardless of your feelings. also the housing market is recovering already. it was a mess because of covid but is now on its way back to more affordable rates.
overall the economy keeps getting better, thank you biden, and soon the complaints youve expressed will be things of the past.
in reality americans arent cheery about the economy because those specific americans dont bother to look at the actual numbers and go off vibes and headlines they see and hear. not because the economy is so horrific. it was pretty bad because we had a massive worldwide plague that impacted specific economic factors hard, plus you had russia invade ukraine which created ripple effects across the entire economy world wide, not just our economy.
the future is hopeful and i cant wait for the doomers to become irrelevant 😊
@@tonynav1082 Well, that's all wrong lol.
For starters, EVs are unlikely to get cheaper any time soon. The battery is the most expensive part of the vehicle, and battery costs haven't come down in years; they're actually increasing currently due to a demand on lithium.
Second, what universe do you live in? Housing prices have absolutely not gotten better for most of the country. The increase since 2019 was literally an increase of over 150%. Homes doubled or even tripled in value. Rental rates soared by +50% or more. Mortgage rates have come down slightly (around 10%), but rental rates haven't come down at all. As I mentioned previously, the average American salary today ($80k) no longer meets the minimum salary for the average American home ($110k).
Third, the Russian invasion of Ukraine did basically nothing the US economy. In fact, you could argue it helped due to US exports of LNG to Europe and increased arms purchases.
Headline GDP looks great, but that number is largely divorced from the reality on the ground. Fixing housing requires 3 things: building more homes (especially in blue states like California and New York - this is on the Democrats), curtailing immigration (this is purely on Biden), and removing institutional buyers (IE Wallstreet) from the housing market (Again, purely on Biden).
I'm no Republican. But I'm not a Democrat either. I'd recommend lowering the partisan blinders for a bit and allowing yourself to question/critique your own party.
There was already a huge cost-of-living crises on the basis of housing due to our nonexistant social safety net. What's new is that people slightly higher up on the ladder are starting to experience the same stuff the people at the bottom were dealing with for decades.
its important to remember with these polls that people on the left, even ardent supporters of biden, are critical of him. from gaza to his pussyfooting regarding socio-economic issues, there is a lot to critique.
Trump in contrast has an actual cult who worships the very ground he walks on, and a political party so terrified of him and his followers that they're scared to stray out of line.
Biden is 81, trump is 79, yet based on the coverage from the right you'd think biden was 180 and trump was 59. the bias is perverse, and makes opinion polls next to useless.
the most note-worthy statistic regarding support for biden is the large number of arab americans who have voted "uncommited" in primary elections as a show of protest against biden's milktoast attempt to get a ceasefire in gaza going, but i doubt the same arab americans are going to vote trump, or stay uncommitted come election. its one thing to protect your candidates actions, its another to directly or indirectly support an even worse candidate.
this means that polls arent exactly reliable when it comes to approval and whatnot.
the truth is that no democrat is going to vote for trump, and a rapidly declining group of republican moderates are willing to support trump, and independants in the middle are becoming less keen on trump due to the large list of criminal litigation. the moderates make up a small number, but it could be vital. nothing trump has done has really earned him more support than last election cycle.
Most level headed analysis of the situation. Both Trump and Biden are not going to have the same level of support they did in 2020, and the polls are absolutely skewed because of the degree of uncritical support Trump gets compared to Biden. Its going to come down to whether the Democrats can convince voters to vote against Trump, if not for Biden, and the degree to which Trump has alienated more moderate voters.
Immigration frustrations while working class Americans struggle with housing has pushed a lot of people towards Trump. Its very frustrating to see money sent anywhere when you cant afford a home. People see how prices rise and they react, regardless if its Bidens fault, it did happen under his watch, and that really pushes people away from Biden, but not necessarily towards Trump.
The most ridiculous thing is how a LOT of Americans belive their economy is doing badly while in reality is doing great at least in comparison to the rest of the world.... The difference with China even increased. I saw one economist saying that anyway republicans will think the economy is doing badly only because of the president.... And democrats are actually living in the parts of the country that are doing worse (cities expecially) so they also can think the economy is doing badly.
The question is turnout, unfortunately, and that puts Trump at an advantage.
America really needs mandatory voting like Australia has so a cult-of-personality authoritarian can't win elections.
Pretty sure Trump is 77, but I mostly agree with you.
American here. Economy looks good on paper, but inequality grew a lot because of pandemic. Getting by is harder than ever for working class Americans, while rich and upper middle class are thriving compared to a few years ago. We also don't want a senile old man to hold the most important job in the country, when he's been ruled "inept to even go to trial".
All I know is two old people will be in office either way and I’m supposed to live with it for another 4 years
It may not be the full 4 years. Even if the winner doesn't die in office, having to stand down for health reasons looks pretty likely for either of them. Not sure if that makes it better or worse?
Vote Libertarian, if you want to avoid the scenario
@@mkb6418le lmao
Good news! It will be only one of this two old guys. 😉
@@mkb6418libertarians are brain dead lol
There is another answer you’re not considering to do with why people don’t feel like the economy is good. That the metrics are not reflective of the average voter.
The stock market has performed well, but most of those gains are from a handful of major companies. Plus you need to account for inflation in that.
Unemployment maybe low, but if people can’t buy as much with their money, then they won’t be happy.
Inflation isn’t the only metric. That is an average. Most people spend most money on food, shelter and transportation. What are the inflation figures on these items. A study showed that average shoppers only oaid marginally more on checkout, but that is a poor metric to use as it doesn’t account for purchasing habits. So while their shop may only be slightly more, if that shop swaps out branded for unbranded, and drops some items, then the voter will see that.
As for claimed misinformation on the economy. The wider economic reality doesn’t matter to the individual. Their knowledge on that is irrelevant. Either the economy is doing bad, so they want to change the man in charge, or the economy is doing well and they’re being left out, so they want to change the man in charge. But when people are told things are good, and that is not their experience, they will lose trust in both the media and government.
Umich economic sentiment is roaring up since december so clearly people are feeling it.
@@grimaffiliations3671roaring for who? The economics haven’t changed. Have factories come back? Is Globalism over? The numbers look nice. For the haves. For everyone else, improvement in the economy means they got a little more tips for their food delivery service.
"The wider economic reality doesn’t matter to the individual. Their knowledge on that is irrelevant." This. Lockheed Martin having a great year is utterly irrelevant to me.
But the inflation has been mainly caused by Russian invasion of Ukraine. That is not Biden's fault.
The average American says they're doing well financially, but the economy's doing poorly.
American economy is doing well ... until you have to buy groceries where prices have skyrocketed while wages have stagnated
Or housing or gas or pretty much everything but those shareholders are happy because ‘number go up’
And that is the key most Americans don't pay all that much attention to the wider global economy, most judge the state of the nation by the state of their lives... or in some cases what they hear the TV telling them.
People have been complaining about grocery prices going up for 60 years
@@xboxman1710 Wider global economy? Like why everyone is doing bad? Like why were have a war in Ukraine which has been slowly escalated by a conflict of interests between USA and Russia with *neither* of them letting go? Yeah, I'm sure that not enough Americans know about this AND the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Inflation is like that...prices often rise faster than wages. It's been a few decades of mostly quite low inflation, and some have grown up without experiencing that.
Bet that nearly 5% growth didn't have anything to do with companies scalping for basic food items and places like disney parks raising their pricing by 50% since 2017 and having things like high volume days which cost extra. Or food delivery costs or Christmas.
It's also worth noting that polls in the US often depend on landline access. Do people under 50 even have landlines?
This is just straight up false. Polling companies are not dependent on landlines, what year do you think it is?
@@candleman3360 Landlines are oversampled. Younger people on cell phones don't answer unknown numbers. This is available with 3 seconds of web searching for anybody here in the 21st century. Now quit accusing your betters of lying just because we're smarter than you.
this is such a fake outdated talking point. like 99% of surveys are not done online
Are wages going up at the high end of wages? An average is an average and that includes the high end numbers which seem to go up far faster than the low numbers. Averages seem to hide where the money increases and decreases.
the increases are occuring at the largest rate for the bottom 20%
Even if wages are going up at the bottom, does it really alter the income distribution? The better off have more wealth which grows in nominal value with inflation. I see a lot of home construction, but it is all in very large single family homes and "luxury" apartments.
usually that is why median is used instead of average
@@grimaffiliations3671 Press X to doubt
@@iiiiii7680 Yep, one person earning 1,000,000 a month and 99 people earning 1,000 a month makes the average 10,990, but the median would be 1,000.
"the peasants are missinformed about their own suffering"
nah, middle class americans are getting economic data objectively wrong
yea this outlet is really out of touch and pushing their bias
@@007kingifrit Theyre not biased, theyre literally reporting the figures that is created by the US FED. also yes kinda, the people are misinformed and should check their privilege. Having groceries cost more and energy be more expensive sucks, but its worse practically everywhere else...
@@cozmorules6983 not out of touch? they just claimed inflation is "down" when what a more honest outlet would say is "the rate of inflation is still going up but at a slower pace"
a more honest outlet would point out that this inflation was caused by the biden admin in the first place blowing out the spending with aid programs
People are misinformed all the time
Incredible use of stockfootage at 5:57.
If these 2 are the best the US can come up with they've got bigger worries than an election
Democrats can't find anyone more popular (in the main party line) than Biden or refuse to go for a populist candidate like Bernie.
As for the Republicans, well, they get a fanatic base that clashes with their moderate constituents. So, yeah, US politics is an extremely messy place right now
We have other candidates it’s just that they don’t have to support of the corrupt establishment behind them
Trump is literally the president in the last 30 years that has the least blood on his hands....can you imagine that, in such contiguous times too! He spent less money on weapons and wars than the last 4 presidents. He knew the war machine was throwing bodies at problems not to solve problems but to create further problems to justify war spending.....Man, if you really got digging into trump and compare him from Bush Senior on to obama, Trump on paper fucking destroys these other presidents! Bill was fucking his staff and he shut down the first large hydron collider for the oil industry(Lost 20 years of energy research), Bush senior and his family were card carrying communist(Prescott Bush) Bush Jr and Cheney literally destroyed the stability in the world to create the massive deals for their buddies through contracts while subverting the rights of congress and the people....Obama is wrapped up with slumdog developing schemes in Chicago and this might be the president outside of jr that has the most innocent blood on his hand. Every one of those presidents left office with a metric ton of money way more than their presidential pay allows them to make....Trump left office spending near a billion dollars during his presidency........Trump might be the best president we have actually had in a long time man!
They arnt, but a nations best people almost never venture into politics. This is the symptom of democracy, letting the people pick who they think the nastiest cage fighter is....not who's best for the position. You could avoid this by letting the parties select their candidates by merit and expert opinion....but that wouldn't be very democratic.
Sorry, but I can't pay my bills with good economic data...
i keep hearing people say how great the economy is doing, but everyone i know is struggling worse. gas and groceries especially. im not an expert, but it realling feels like either the numbers are fudged or there is some sort of serious disconnect
Get trump on to make sure it gets worse ! Its not bidens fault that trump lil buddy decided to attack allies
Good economic data doesn't mean everyone is doing great, just that most people are doing well. Don't project your own experience or those of your friends onto the economy as a whole
@@KerncBurns so you want the economy to grow and wages to grow, but your bills to remain the same? That's not how it works. Save better. Do you even understand what a 3% gdp growth for a mammoth of an economy like the US even means? Its ridiculous. Even India's 8% growth pales in comparison.
@@KerncBurnsah the alternate reality when reality doesn’t suit us
There’s also the Swifties who are not to be underestimated
They already vote democrat anyway which isn’t going to change anything. That demographic is mostly liberal female, so they’ll have as much influence as any other demographic that always votes democrat.
I think you handled this topic quite well. Well done.
Gaza and the border are still thorny issues for Biden but if can overcome them he may a slight edge.
Naw, its not a slight edge, 25-60% of right wing voters have vowed to never vote trump again, so his coalition has shrank, even if ppl stay home instead of voting biden (unlikely imo as one of the active protestors against his border and gazan policies) even of only half of halie's coalition follows through with their pledge to vote biden, that will destroy trump.
Honestly unless the left fails to mobilize this will be a landslide
I mean shit I'm from Nebraska and I don't know a single person who is voting for trump (I mean I do know one guy who would but he is a felon so he cant... irony lmfao, but even his wife is voting biden)
Thing is, Trump doesn't want the border issue to be fixed as long as he isn't in charge so he can campaign on it, so speaker Johnson simply refuses to bring the border bill before congress for it to be voted on
Thing about Gaza is that the war will most likely be over long before the election. Even if Israel conducts a brutal invasion of Rafah, the whole strip will fall by April. By November it'll be old news. There's also a good chance Biden will negotiate a ceasefire and work out a deal with the Arab League with respect to administering occupied Gaza. Also, Trump is hardly known as being sympathetic to Palestine, so it won't draw too many votes to him either.
Border is the thing that will most hurt Biden imo. It does seem he is starting to pivot to a harder stance, by the election he could go all out to stop illegal immigration in order to win some votes.
The only question is why he didn't pressure Israel yet and stopped ceasefires? Doesn't make any sense:it's not in the interest of America to become enemy even more with the middle east for Israel that anyway has no other allies.... All the power in the world and you cannot stop a country of 9 million people?
Taylor Swift
You know, I really want to believe that Americans are not stupid enough to give the most important position in the country because of a spoiled millionaire whim, who has become a global meme because she talks non-stop about the climate but flies jets more than 99% of US citizens put together.
She can sleep with both in between November and January .. giving both fatal heart attacks .. this might actually fix us .. holy moly, whatta thought
Seriously? I thought it was impossible... You just expanded my knowledge to whole another level. Thank you.
At this point, I'd prefer Kanye West or Vermin Surpreme 😅. Someone, please, at least someone not with 1 foot into... you know, "below"...
@@konstantynopolyt6770 do you mean you thought it was impossible for us (as U.S.) to be fixable?
The only Trump vs Biden I'm looking forward to is the next "Epic Rap Battles"!
Some choice, a man that died 8 years ago, or a man that can't keep his mouth shut.
Never heard anyone say the word bell with such a vibrato :)
The betting odds are usually the most accurate because people actually have to put their hard earned cash. 😂
I've heard a lot of people say the unemployment numbers might be skewed because someone who loses his job will need to take on 2 part time jobs to maintain their way of life. Also people who do uber also do lyft and the grocery delivery apps to get tasks more efficiently. I have 3 friends who were doing 4 gig jobs and it makes me wonder how statisticians handle that.
Statisians in my point of view don’t change unless their job is on the line.
It seems like you research the topics very well, but omit a lot of data to make videos shorter and more interesting for masses.
But I feel like longer deep dives on big and important topics would be cool as well, rather than making several shallow videos.
The channel's name is TL;DR. What did you expect?
@@TheSpiritombsableyeI didn’t expect anything, it’s just a suggestion from a long time viewer.
“So chill out” 😂
can't wait to come back to this video after the election. "Basically inevitable" that this is so wrong lmao.
Literally, no one says the economy is good at all.
It’s pretty damn good lol
Biden and his cronies are saying it
Actually it is, people just don't feel it for some reason. Some people blame the companies though.
I'd say it's doing pretty well. So do a pretty sizeable chunk of Americans. So I guess by "literally no one" you mean "no one in my social circle".
@@scottwright7177 According to who?
I feel like the economy part of the video is very surface level and was really poorly researched or sourced.
Labeling voters as "reliably getting them wrong" when discussing wage growth and inflation is really failing to notice the standard of livability getting worse in the US,
which most voters deal with every single day.
The people who can decide to call them "reliably wrong" don't have to struggle with paying the bills every month.
What is the point of inflation statistics which don’t include energy or food, 2 of the most expensive items everyone needs to purchase no matter what?
Choosing between garbage and garbage. What great choices.
i am sure some garbage stink more than the other. Choose the stink you prefer.
Biden has been solid
for fucking us all, outside the usa, yeah@@grimaffiliations3671
@@grimaffiliations3671demented
Trump is the best president ever, I wish he led my country.
Core inflasion came in 3,9% last month and core PCE deflator came at 2.8%, that 2.4% core is bullshit
The cope is real. Your only chance is stopping him from running
we will
My favourite US Presidents
6. T Jefferson
5. G Washington
4. T Roosevelt
3. F D Roosevelt
2. D D Eisenhower
1. A Lincoln
Congrats, you have the correct opinion. I fully agree with you.
@@MoraleIsHigh that's just my opinion, there is no right or wrong opinion.
For me, as an Eurpean, it is very weird that the presidential elections in US are decided just by couple of states. It creates a situation where voters from the swing states have much more power than voters from the rest of US. Contrary to a general democratic principle that all votes should be equal.
Well yeah it's because the founders thought democracy was fucking anarchy and for the poors. They were doing better than Europe and the divine right of kings but it's obvious they were inspired by the oligarchies of Athens and Rome and the parliament of Britain at the time over any idea of freedom and equality
I think you may be misunderstanding the situation. Swing state voters have no more power than the other states. Their votes are just less predictable. Who is and isn't a swing state changes nearly every election. For example Georgia voted red for 30 years then voted blue in 2020. It's very much a toss up state. Other states like Florida who was a swing state for like 20 years is now a solid Red state.
So it's not a diviation from democracy its just the diviation from predictability. They have no more or less power
Trust me, we know and wish it wasn't like that.
That's why America is a superpower and Europe is a shithole.
The disclaimer helped as I was already concerned why TLDR would want a specific candidate to win!
In any political campaign, candidates often face a variety of challenges and scrutiny. They may have to navigate complex issues, appeal to diverse voter bases, and address past actions while also showcasing their leadership qualities, vision for the future, and ability to enact change. Public opinion can be influenced by many factors, including media portrayal, debates, and the effectiveness of their campaign strategies. It’s a dynamic process where adaptability and resilience can be as important as a candidate’s policy positions or political experience.
This is pretty simple. You have experienced both tenures, now VOTE according to policies. Which policies are favourable to you and your family, and the nation financially, economically etc. Let’s forget about our personal biases, and Information from MSM and vote for the future of our nation.
Most ppl don't get what is good for them in the long run. If we did, the world would look quite different.
@@CryptoC4TA bit arrogant to say
Biden doesn't have to convince people not to vote for Trump, he has to convince people it's worth voting for him. Voter apathy is high in the US and Biden doesn't have as large a cult of personality as trump.
What policies does trump have? Does anyone know? Has he actually done anything ever?
It's not that simple. A lot of policies don't take effect immidiately. It wouldn't be the first time that a president suffers from the poor choices of the former government or that a bad president benefits from the good choices of a previous government.
Good video.
"we're doing a trump video too. Chill." 🤣💙🤖💙🤖💙🤖💙🤖💙🤖💙🤖💙🤖💙
Biden’s two main impediments are core inflation (gas prices, food/rent) and immigration. He needs to focus on a message of anti-corporate price gouging/shrinkflation. Something he finally did in his SOTU speech. As for immigration, that’s up to Congress.
If he would win hopefully he could tackle that, but it's very unpredictable if he will even do so and if Trump decides to mess everything up just because he can.
Bidenomics made everything worse and make 5,7 trillions disappear in just 3 years !
I think that Biden actually does have the power to restrict illegal immigration under section 212F of the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act. If he does that and improves core inflation, he would definitely make the race competitive.
This is the type of video where you can very clearly see who watched the video and who just came straight to the comment section to complaign out of principle 😅
Wmn shouldn't get to vote, y'all are children.
Reguarding the economy I believe most people say they don’t approve because when they look around they see people struggling far more than they did pre pandemic and while wages may be on the rise many people (especially those who haven’t had a job before) are struggling to find someone willing to hire them and that is reflected largely in the young voter base of high school graduates and early college students. Idk tho it’s just an observation that I can’t give too many specific numbers for
I will be coming back to this video regardless of the result.
Trump has policies?
i see you like to spread misinformation
so what are trumps policies?
@@MinecraftLively
@howardmurphy743 what are bidens policies? Increased taxes? 700+ genders? Being a dictator by passing 17 executive bills? Supporting a genocide in middle east and China? Getting money through money laundering with the help of ukraine which is son is doing but they keep hiding the laptop instead of letting us all see it?
Oh please stop lmao. Its awesome how everyone forgets 2022 primaries
So Trump will only win with 1% instead of 10%?
They also forgot that *someone* never provided any reliable evidence that the last election was "rigged" yet is still whining about it.
Already packing my bags for Switzerland!
Polls Schmolls...
I mean they showed dean philips at 12% when he has never broken 5% and had dropped our so yeah, even more than normal we can ignore this poll
I'm not sure what polls they read, but when I go over to The Economist, which compiles many survey and then does an average, Trump only got 1 point over Biden (45 to 46), and on FiveThirtyEight, which also compiles many different polls without doing an average, you'll see that the latest polls are split between Biden and Trump, with Biden sometimes leading by 2 points, and Trump also leading by up to 2 points.
once a tldr video comes out with a title like this, whoever’s given the possibility of win loses
i mean they do that for each candidates
1:22
Bro couldn’t even watch one minute before commenting
What?
@@bababababababa6124frfr
Didn't put one of his upcoming legal cases getting a ruling close to election?
People who don’t know much about the US economy base their views on feels, not reals.
It’s like the “recession” in the very low unemployment period.
We all feel that inflationary hit, but the economy isn’t doing so bad
Can you do a video on if trump will support Russia or Putin ?
Neutrality or isolation doesn't mean support
@@caiden5855how about encouraging whatever the hell he wants to do?
PUTIN OWNS TRUMP
@@caiden5855 He told them to do what they want, as they commit genocide in Ukraine. He also has investments in Moscow. Im sure you're not stupid.
@@caiden5855 Yes it does.
Changing position and reducing pressure on Russia would be weak. It allows them to grow in power, wealth and influence. This is indirect support for their country, and therefore their leadership.
Trump is weak on Russia, because of his admiration/support of Putin.
Polls in America are flawed. They don't usually contact cell phones or younger people. So it is skewed. Not every long ago they never call cells. Cells are just in the data. Not sure but I have heard that targeting cell accounts locations.
Actually, all lot of polling centers have updated their methods to reach a wider variety of people. Doesn't mean they're accurate, but just saying.
If you don't know it, look up "Dewey Beats Truman", which shows that it's been going on for a long time.
Actually, the Polls have only been incorrect twice in 75 years... Dewey/Truman then Clinton/Trump.
A good graph of the reflection to see how Americans might feel is:
avg wage over time vs the avg home or car price over time.
That paints a more honest cost of living picture.
7:27 - imagine saying this with a straight face and not seeing the glaring issue with a system where money directly dictates politics. God help us
No. Unless they manage to steal it again 😊
sore loser
Like they did in 2020.
Hell yes. The election is rigged. Don't vote
If they "stole it" in 2020 what makes you think they can't do it again?
"Here's how hillary can still win" vibes
Not really, Hillary had no chance while 25-60% of republican voters have sworn to never vote trump again
Maybe, but trumpers were in denial much longer after losing to Biden. You can't be too certain in a way or another.
I mean she did get more votes so it def came down to luck
Not really at all. Biden beat Trump once before. Really the biggest thing suggesting Trump will win in November are the polls which, like, it's crazy to see Trump supporters suddenly start believing in polls, despite the fact that Republicans have consistently been under preforming in them since 2022.
I mean she did win the popular vote. The fact that the weird system of the US puts more in more people in power even though they don't get the most votes is concerning.
6:04 strongly disagree.
The comments section SURELY won’t be hostile and overtly political.
lets be civil guys
0:27 what policy’s trump doesn’t have any policy’s
Well that’s not true.
*spreads misinformation*
@@MinecraftLively it’s the truth he is only running for president to keep himself out of prison for his crimes
Religious fundamentalism and Russian stoogery are technically policies.
@@krisdaschwab912 I see you’re still spreading misinformation as well.
I find it interesting that you only discuss Bidens success chances in terms of "economics". In Germany, most of my peers tend to be disappointed with our government because of immigration, energy costs and "politic correctness" (Bs like pronouns, feelings, gender/race-based job quotas, etc). Seeing that these "problems" were created by the democrats and imported from the USA, I would presume that there is a high percentage of US citizens that would prefer a dictator (like Trump) only to see things like "inclusive toilets" dissappear.
You don't actually believe Trump is a dictator right???
@@Aaron_Guest I do think that he sees himself as almighty and untouchable. So yes... This is (partly) the definition of a dictator. He actually also said it himself, that he will do this and that (something to do with "people he doesn't like") as soon as he becomes president again. So... Again, dictator
@@TheRemigodHe did not say that, he was clearly telling a joke. No Trump is not a dictator, he did not govern like a dictator, he is supported by the party that actually likes the constitution and the moment he tries to violate it, 2/3 of the party will abandon him.
@@loganleroy8622 somehow, the rest of the world sees it differently 😕
I don't know if you are from the USA. I presume this. But if this is so, you have to understand that we (Europe/Germany, in my case) are extremely affected by unilateral or arrogant actions and decisions, that our greatest ally makes. So much so, that the biggest talking point in Europe is how to decouple from the USA, because they are unreliable.
Thr above is also the case with the current administration, who simply continued what Trump did, but added the BS mentioned in my first post.
Gender and race based quotas for jobs were not imported from the US, they're illegal here and have been since the 1960s.
I get the feeling that whichever side loses the election won't accept the loss or concede.
Six swing states are all that really matter....blue states will vote for Biden, red states will vote for Trump. Trump is currently polling higher than Biden in 5 of 6 swing states. Prices have increased 20 percent, mortgage rates up 5%, rent up 25% in the past 4 years, so economic pain in terms of family budgets is also an important factor influencing swing state voters.
This might sound very stupid but I think part of the reason people are so down about the economy is vision of people more well off than you is easier than it has ever been. This leads to more envy even though you're more well off than most of the world.
As an American who was largely disinterested in this election for the "hating both candidates", after his SOTU I have been re-energized and am feeling both proud and excited to vote for Biden. There is a LOT of politics between now and November. Between Trump being caught up in his criminal cases and Biden finally starting to campaign, I would predict a swing towards Biden. Americans' biggest Biden complaints were his perceived ineffectiveness, his current campaign including and following the SOTU are putting that to rest.
I don't live in the USA but Im not sure if we can survive 4 more years of Joe Biden
An old decrepit man screaming about how half of the country is a direct threat to democracy while also saying the country needs to unify after being pumped full of a drug cocktail of uppers to keep him going for an hour is not comforting in the slightest.
You are easily manipulated by his lies. I will never vote for him (AGAIN) OR Trump. He has lost my vote when he signed all of the fossil fuel permits AND his adulation for Bibi.
#AbandonBiden
#CornelWest2024
#JillStein2024
#CeasefireNOW
@@JonathanB138I'm with you that Biden has not lived up to his promises on the climate front. I do not support the state of Israel, I find it an abhorrent country. Geopolitically, Israel and the US have required one another which makes this difficult. I'm not a Democrat, they are too right wing for me. I will fight tooth and nail locally to swing politics left, but I cannot allow for Trump to return to the office.
@@axelolsson341two years ago I also thought the climate change is our bigges risk, but after Putin started the war I think climate peotection must wait. Russia does not care at all about climate and if Russia winn the war in Europe we have really more serious problems. Trump would m
Pass me hopium bro, this sh#t is daaaamn good man.
thank you for the nice video
Never underestimate the establishments ability to ‘fortify’ an election
How easy or how hard do you find it to be neutral when you have personal biases?
Here’s the reality on the economy:
People know that the *depth* of the labor market is a lot shallower now. You’re not getting as many calls from recruiters anymore. If you get laid off from your job (and there’s a lot of layoffs), there’s very little chance that you’d be able to get a job with the same salary and perks as your previous job.
Now some of that may be justified in the name of getting inflation down but it’s going to cause unease.
If you have a high paying job right now and you get a slight raise, you’re not going to feel confident spending that money because the job could disappear any day and you’re less certain that you’d be able to get another job that pays similarly quickly.
6:10 Excluding from inflation food and energy --- the two most important things for most people, or at least for relatively poor people --- and then calling int "core inflation" seems pretty questionable to me.
I'm from Finland. Back in 2016 I really hoped Trump would win against Clinton, and he did. Now I'm afraid. I don't want USA to leave NATO, Finland just became a member. And I hope the support for Ukraine won't stop. Together we are THE STRONGEST against the east.
trump has never said he would withdraw fro nato, only that he wants countries to pay more
Trump never said he would leave NATO. He wants western Europe to pay their fair share in military.
@@007kingifrit most countries already pay 3% of gdp. Trump says he wants them to pay there nato "dues". 4 years in office and he never figured out that nato dosent have "dues" its literally just defense spending
@@Realivangarcia Maybe look up north to Canada :). And by the way, most of the European countries that Trump spoke about pay well above the 2% that he mentioned. Classic stupidity of propaganda.
@@Realivangarcia You mean east european countries?
I will vote for DarkBrandon 2024
remember if you dont vote for him ur not black! i also agree Obama is the first articulate black men I've seen!
could have released both videos at the same time, maybe later
The founding fathers were 17~ to 27~ years old. These grandpas funna give me an actual stroke during elections 😵💫
I live in one of the most conservative parts of a swing state. I don’t believe these polls. I know many people who voted for Trump in the past. I know of many who will not in the future. However, and this is the important point. I do not know a single person who did not vote for him in the past who will in the future. If there is no push for him here I do not see where Trump is goi. To get more votes than he got in the past . And he lost in the past and never had a majority of the vote.
Then you are either blind or a lying
Not to mention that Trump is *still* claiming that the 2020 election was "rigged" and never provided any reliable evidence, yet he's still going on about it.
That's a good point. I don't know of anyone who has never voted for Trump that has had a change of heart. I'm not saying they don't exist, I'm just not aware of any.
I'm European I can't do much here but I hope to god that trump doesn't win, I'm not saying Biden is amazing but I'm genuinely scared how Trump could ruin international relation because it seems that right wing republicans can't compromise on anything which is the core of a functionig state and democracy.
with all due respect, your definition of "International Relations" must be different than mine
Trump made historic achievements with relations with North Korea, no wars started under him, had good relations with Saudi Arabia unlike Biden who made the US look weak and dependent in front of them by begging them to produce more oil and Bin Salman saying no (LOL)
Let us talk about Europe, Trump warned Germany in a UN assembly that Germany was too reliant on Russian oil and gas and the German delegation laughed, after 2022 they did not laugh and to this day it is a problem for them as Europe did not fully abandon Russian resources.
Let us not forget EU-Nato countries not paying as agreed upon for their alliances and now Europeans like yourselves are mad that US is prioritising its own interests?
The last Trump-Biden contrast presidencies clearly show that Europe needs to start relying on itself more instead of relying on such big powers
tell me you dont understand American politics without telling me you don't understand American politics
@MinecraftLively Well, I really don't this is just my perspective from our side they both look like horrible options. To me, one is incompetent and unable to do what they need or want to do and the other one is evil combined with good intentions that have been spoiled by hidden interests. I wish you the best, but due to how American elections work, you will probably never see a big 3rd party to make the other ones become normal and grounded again
I replied to this comment but my comment got deleted 🤡🤡🤡
@@doodmann5898 same
I’ll be back in november to see how accurate/inaccurate this video will be.
What about RFK???
If you live in U.S. the so call statistics on the economy doesn't match what people are experiencing. people are struggling with the high cost of housing, energy, food and taxes. People's salaries are not keeping up dispite what the statistics say.
This is so true. Everyone is experiencing this. The economic issues aside, in general, more and more people, behind closed doors, the main issue is - the democrats have already overplayed their hand. Whatever Trump did or didn't do, prosecuting your political rival, especially for essentially thought crimes with no intent requirement, that's will scare people to vote. Add in the gaslighting on economic issues and couple it with the open border, the only valid choice is RFK or Trump, and I don't think rest of world realizes this yet.
The coping is crazy 😂
Coming from you
@foundationgamer9771 I'm not even american, I'm a brown muslim man, trump hates me and i hate him. But to think biden has any chance of winning is denying reality
@@MuhammadRaiyan135 I don't think it's unreasonable for Biden to win, given Trump is the one who actively tried to overturn Democracy
Trump doesn’t hate you lmao but yes you hate him for no reason.
@@archyarchfiendx2938Trump doesn't hate muslims? He ran on banning muslims from america. He pardoned someone who did war crimes in iraq. He said he'd deport people just for showing up to pro palestine protests. He massively scaled up the drone war, killing tens of thousands of civilians in the middle east. Anyone with 2 brain cells could see he hates muslims
Donald Taump is like Makunga from Madagascar😂😂
God, 2020 has been just absolutely awful, l sure hope things get better after this Biden vs Trump election...
...Wait, what do you mean, we're in 2024?!