Is China Abandoning Its Traditional Nuclear Strategy?

China had maintained a modest nuclear capability and posture for decades, but its efforts in recent years to substantially expand its nuclear arsenal appear to deviate from traditional policy and defy international expectations. From a previously "lean and effective" nuclear force to the "powerful/high-level strategic deterrent capability" announced at the 20th Party Congress, what might have driven the current round of China's nuclear expansion? This presentation will examine both technical and political factors that may have influenced China's nuclear decision-making and identify elements of China's nuclear thinking that appear to persist as well as those that may have evolved. It will analyze the implications for the U.S.-China nuclear relationship and for broader security dynamics in the Asia-Pacific region. The presentation will conclude with a discussion of possible future steps for the international community to engage with China on nuclear weapons, arms control, and strategic stability issues.
Speaker: Dr. Tong Zhao, Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace